What if Israel strikes Iran?

As negotiations between the world powers and Iran in Vienna enter their “final stage,” many in the Middle East and also in Washington and European capitals – hold their breath to question, is return to a nuclear deal with Iran possible?

The arch rival of Iran, Israel is closely following developments in Vienna. Accepting the fact that some agreement with Iran is almost certainly on the way, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett recently said, “The agreement and what appears to be its conditions will damage the ability to take on Iran’s nuclear program.”

It appears that Israel is getting ready to attack Iran, in case the talks in Vienna fail to produce an agreement and Iran is free to pursue its nuclear program, in addition to its regional activities.

Many Israelis believe that a deal with Iran won’t be able to stop the country from developing a nuclear weapon. Therefore. Israel must get ready to strike Iran. Bennett stated, “Israel will continue to ensure its full freedom of operation in any place and at any time, with no limitations.” The incoming IAF commander Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar said that the Israel Air Force is ready to attack Iran tomorrow.”

If Israel does indeed attack Iran, as Israeli officials have increasingly implied might happen, what impact would it have on the Middle East? How would the region be any different after such a development?

These questions may be hypothetical now, but they could very well turn out to be reality tomorrow.

To find answers to these question, Wikistrat, a crowdsourced consultancy, ran a weeklong simulation from January 24 to 31, 2022, while the talks in Vienna were still taking place.

To explore how an Israeli strike would impact the region’s stability, the simulation focused on the five actors that were considered the most significant in the Gulf region, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States, China and Russia. The simulation included 31 experts from 13 countries and focused on three scenarios: 1) a successful Israeli strike on Iran, 2) a failed strike, and 3) a partially successful strike.

Discussions in the simulation produced a few key insights, which observers of developments in the region may want to keep in mind as they try to make sense of the Middle East in the next few years.

First, the experts argued that in the years after an Israeli military strike ‑ regardless of its results ‑ the Middle East will enter the nuclear proliferation phase, which will include not only Israel but also Iran and possibly Saudi Arabia. An Israeli strike will embolden the Iran regime’s desire to have a nuclear weapon, viewing it – much like North Korea – as a guarantee against future attacks.

For its part, fearing an Iranian nuclear retaliation against it, Saudi Arabia will also seek to develop its own nuclear program. This is based on the participants’ assessment that a failed Israeli strike would drive the Saudi leadership to move forward as quickly as possible with its own nuclear program. A successful strike could serve as a catalyst to the Saudi nuclear program, encouraging Saudi decision-makers to leverage the attack and to catch up with the Iranian nuclear program.

A successful strike could lead to a Saudi-Israeli normalization. Some of the experts argued that a successful Israeli strike might cause Mohammed bin Salman, as king, to normalize relations with Israel, in the expectation that the entrenched anti-Iranian sentiment in Saudi Arabia would outweigh any backlash against normalization.

However, a failed strike could have a negative effect on Israel’s regional position, as Israel was perceived until then as a strong partner to the Gulf states on security affairs and a critical partner for confronting Iran. The experts assessed that if Israel failed to deliver on confronting Iran by failing to destroy its nuclear facilities, Saudi Arabia would be less inclined to engage with it.

While a nuclear deal between the US, other world powers and Iran seems almost certain at this point, the stakes for an unchecked nuclear Iran are higher than ever.

If Israel feels compelled to act alone to stop a nuclear Iran, a completely different geopolitical reality could emerge in the Middle East.

 

Delay in recognizing Taliban government could initiate anarchy in Afghanistan

The animosity of United States with Taliban is evident from the fact that despite taking an exit from Afghanistan as back as on August 15, 2021, the super power has not recognized the Taliban government.

To further add to Taliban insults the US has also not unfrozen foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan. It looks too funny that the super powers are trying to arrange aid for Afghanistan, on the pretext of hunger etc. However, Afghans are barred from using their own foreign exchange reserves.

There is a consensus among the analysts that since the Taliban's takeover of Kabul, the United States has fundamentally altered its approach towards Afghanistan.

The United States is defeating its stated goals of countering terrorism, maintaining regional stability and protecting rights of Afghans, particularly females.

The United States has been beating the drums that the violent conflicts among the armed groups have proliferated.

The fragile economy of Afghanistan is deteriorating fast and the Afghan people are facing an extraordinarily grave humanitarian crisis. The Taliban's interim government is widely viewed as insular and exclusive.

The western media is constantly running stories that Taliban have curtailed rights of girls and women. It is also alleged that Taliban at times have turned a blind eye to abductions, beatings and, in some cases, the torture and killing of journalists, human rights activists and former civilian and military officials. 

Tom West was appointed the US Special Representative for Afghanistan in October 2021, and assigned task of advancing US objectives in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US and NATO forces and the Taliban takeover.

As part of his efforts, he engages in dialogue representatives of Taliban, regional leaders, the international community and Afghan political and civil society members to find ways to assist the Afghan people while protecting US national security interests.

I am shocked to know that a US Think Tank intends to invite the US Special Representative for consultations with the Taliban, other Afghans and the international community to find ways of supporting the Afghan people during this period of significant transition for the country.

According to the critics of Afghanistan policy of the United States, it is feared that whatever armaments the super power has abandoned in Afghanistan may be ultimately repossessed and used by ISIS and/or anti-Taliban groups.

United States interested in working closely with Bangladesh

The newly-appointed Ambassador of United States to Bangladesh, Peter D. Haas has said he looks forward to working with Dhaka to further advance the relationship between the two countries. 

He was speaking at an interaction session with the officers of the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington DC. Haas is expected to arrive in Dhaka in early March to assume charges.

The new envoy was received by the Bangladesh Ambassador to the United States, M. Shahidul Islam and other officials of the Mission.

During the discussion, the ambassadors of the two countries expressed their resolve to work closely to further strengthen the friendly relations between Bangladesh and the United States.

They also laid emphasis on greater engagements of the two sides and undertaking mutually beneficial program and actions to celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Bangladesh and the United States.

Bangladesh’s location holds significant strategic value for Beijing. China relies on the Strait of Malacca, a narrow waterway between Malaysia, Singapore, and the Indonesian island of Sumatra, to import energy and goods from the Middle East and Africa via the Indian Ocean.

The Strait of Malacca could become a high-risk passageway in the event of a potential conflict either in the South China Sea or the India-China border. Consequently, China has taken a number of initiatives to build alternative routes aimed at reducing dependence on the Strait of Malacca. Seeking port facilities in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal region along with overland connections to them is one of the efforts in this direction.

It may be recalled that Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming recently expressed concerns that China-Bangladesh relations will suffer if Dhaka joins the Quad, an informal grouping that aims to counterbalance Beijing.

Though China shares no border with Bangladesh, the distance between the two countries is only about 100 kilometers. Beijing hopes to bridge this distance through infrastructure that would link the two countries closer.

The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor is one of the six proposed economic corridors of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Bangladesh enjoys a strategic location in Beijing’s strategic advances in the Indian Ocean.

US troops arrive in Poland to reinforce NATO

The dichotomy of Military Policy of United States is evident. It recently asked 160 troops to move out of Ukraine, but landed fresh troops in Poland. The troops reinforcing NATO allies in Eastern Europe arrived at a military base in southeastern Poland on Saturday.

The US troops arrived in a small Beechcraft C-12 Huron that landed at Rzeszow military base on February  05, Polish military spokesman Major Przemyslaw Lipczynski told the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

Lipczynski said the arrivals included some support and command-level staff, adding that a much larger contingent is expected to arrive at the airfield on Sunday. The second transport was initially slated for arrival on Saturday afternoon, but those plans were changed for undisclosed reasons, Lipczynski added.

“We await the arrival of our allies,” Lipczynski told PAP, adding that “our collaboration has been going very smoothly.”

In total, some 1,700 US soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, are expected to be stationed in Poland, the spokesman said, describing it as an elite rapid response force that Polish troops have worked with on multiple occasions.

“We served alongside them on missions, including Iraq and Afghanistan,” Lipczynski said, adding that the soldiers had also trained together during international war games like Dragon and Anaconda.

“We can count on each other, and trust one another,” he added.

The US troop contingent arrived on the same day that the Russian Defense Ministry announced it had sent a pair of long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Moscow ally Belarus, which shares a border with Poland.

“In the course of their flight, the long-range aircraft practiced joint tasks with the air force and air defense of the Belarusian armed forces,” according to Russian state news agency TASS. The patrol mission lasted around four hours, after which the Russian planes returned to base in Russia.

The patrol mission came as the Kremlin has moved troops from Siberia and other remote parts of Russia to Belarus for sweeping joint drills, with the deployment adding to a large Russian military buildup near Ukraine that has fueled Western fears of a possible invasion.

Russia has denied any plans of attacking Ukraine and has asked the United States and its allies for a binding commitment that they won’t accept Ukraine into NATO.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for his country’s admission into the military alliance.

The Kremlin has also asked the United States and its allies to promise not to deploy offensive weapons and to roll back NATO deployments to Eastern Europe.

Washington and NATO have rejected those demands.

“From our perspective it can’t be clearer—NATO’s door is open, remains open, and that is our commitment,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in late January, though he renewed an offer of “reciprocal” measures to address mutual security concerns between Russia and NATO, including missile reductions in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled Moscow’s readiness for more talks with Washington and its NATO allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were scheduled to make separate trip to Kyiv and Moscow as part of a high-level diplomatic effort to defuse tensions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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First US Troops Arrive in Poland to Reinforce NATO Amid Russia–Ukraine Tensions

By Tom Ozimek

 

February 5, 2022 Updated: February 6, 2022

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The first U.S. troops reinforcing NATO allies in Eastern Europe amid Russia–Ukraine tensions arrived at a military base in southeastern Poland on Saturday.

A handful of U.S. troops arrived in a small Beechcraft C-12 Huron that landed at Rzeszow military base shortly after 10 a.m. on Feb. 5, Polish military spokesman Major Przemyslaw Lipczynski told the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

Lipczynski said the arrivals included some support and command-level staff, adding that a much larger contingent is expected to arrive at the airfield on Sunday. The second transport was initially slated for arrival on Saturday afternoon, but those plans were changed for undisclosed reasons, Lipczynski added.

“We await the arrival of our allies,” Lipczynski told PAP, adding that “our collaboration has been going very smoothly.”

In total, some 1,700 U.S. soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, are expected to be stationed in Poland, the spokesman said, describing it as an elite rapid response force that Polish troops have worked with on multiple occasions.

“We served alongside them on missions, including Iraq and Afghanistan,” Lipczynski said, adding that the soldiers had also trained together during international war games like Dragon and Anaconda.

“We can count on each other, and trust one another,” he added.

The U.S. troop contingent arrived on the same day that the Russian Defense Ministry announced it had sent a pair of long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Moscow ally Belarus, which shares a border with Poland.

“In the course of their flight, the long-range aircraft practiced joint tasks with the air force and air defense of the Belarusian armed forces,” the ministry said, according to Russian state news agency TASS. The patrol mission lasted around four hours, after which the Russian planes returned to base in Russia.

The patrol mission came as the Kremlin has moved troops from Siberia and other remote parts of Russia to Belarus for sweeping joint drills, with the deployment adding to a large Russian military buildup near Ukraine that has fueled Western fears of a possible invasion.

Russia has denied any plans of attacking Ukraine and has asked the United States and its allies for a binding commitment that they won’t accept Ukraine into NATO.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for his country’s admission into the military alliance.

The Kremlin has also asked the United States and its allies to promise not to deploy offensive weapons and to roll back NATO deployments to Eastern Europe.

Washington and NATO have rejected those demands.

“From our perspective. I can’t be more clear—NATO’s door is open, remains open, and that is our commitment,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in late January, though he renewed an offer of “reciprocal” measures to address mutual security concerns between Russia and NATO, including missile reductions in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled Moscow’s readiness for more talks with Washington and its NATO allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are set to make separate trips on Feb. 7–8 and Feb. 14–15 to Kyiv and Moscow as part of a high-level diplomatic effort to defuse tensions.

 

Lloyd Austin orders 160 US troops to move out of Ukraine

I have often highlighted in my blogs that hundreds of CIA operators work in different countries, where the United States has vested interest. The most naked was the involvement of US Ambassador in Bin Ghazi, capital of Libya, who was killed later. 

The latest is the order of US Defense Secretary to 160 US troops in Ukraine to reposition themselves in Europe.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 160 US troops in Ukraine to be repositioned in Europe. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby tweeted Saturday that Austin has ordered 160 Florida National Guardsmen out of Ukraine and into Europe temporarily.

“Abundance of caution, safety and security of our personnel is his paramount concern. We remain committed to our relationship with the Ukrainian armed forces,” Kirby said.

The decision came after Austin had a call with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu.

The Department of Defense said the two discussed Russia’s build up of troops and equipment along Ukraine's border. 

Russia has more than 140,000 troops on the border of Ukraine as well as military vehicles and helicopters. The buildup has remained for weeks now, prompting the US, Canada, UK and its allies that Russia will invade. 

The announcement from Kirby comes as the US continues to encourage Americans — both government employees and other citizens — to leave the Ukraine amid threats of Russian aggression. 

White House Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that the US would not send in troops to the country for rescue missions should Americans choose to stay in the former Soviet state. 

The State Department announced early Saturday morning that it was evacuating most employees from the US Embassy in Kyiv, citing the military situation on the border. 

US officials say an attack by Russia could happen at any time in the near future. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday there will be a "resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response" if an invasion occurs, and thousands of US troops have been sent to Poland amid rising tensions.

Trucker blockades at US-Canada border crossings

Blockades at major United States-Canada border crossings caused by truckers protesting COVID-19 vaccine mandates could worsen the existing car shortage that has driven up prices to record levels.

The skyrocketing cost of cars and trucks — which has played a major role in fueling the 40-year high inflation rate in United States was just beginning to level off before truckers blocked the Ambassador Bridge and with it the most efficient way to transport auto parts between Canada and the US 

Without access to key components, auto manufacturers were forced to shut down some of their plants and some factories remain closed or are operating at reduced capacity.

Toyota delayed production at its plants in West Virginia, Alabama and Kentucky, affecting its output of its best-selling RAV4 vehicle, the company said Friday, adding the disruptions could continue through the weekend. 

Ford said that two of its Ontario-based factories are running at reduced capacity and an Ohio plant had to shut down. General Motors said it resumed production at its Michigan factory on Friday after canceling two shifts on Thursday. 

The situation could get worse if the blockade doesn’t end soon, according to the American Automotive Policy Council, Equipment Manufacturers Association and Original Equipment Suppliers Association. 

“The US automakers and suppliers are doing everything possible to maximize production with what they have, working to keep lines running and shifts scheduled to minimize the impact on American autoworkers, but the situation has already led to reduced production and may spread the longer the disruptions persist,” the groups said in a statement.

Production cuts and delays are bad news for the already meager US inventory of cars and trucks of roughly one million vehicles, down from more than 3 million in a normal year, according to J.D. Power.

Insufficient supply caused the price of used cars and trucks to increase by a stunning 40.5% in the year ending in January 2022, while the price of new vehicles grew by 12.2%, according to a Labor Department report released Thursday.

Those are some of the biggest price jumps of any product or service included in the report, which found that overall consumer prices increased by 7.5% annually, the fastest rate since February 1982.

The blockade could upend the trend. The Ambassador Bridge carries 25% of Canada’s trade with the US, with more than 8,000 trucks crossing the bridge on a typical day.

Workers in the Michigan auto industry alone may have lost up to US$51 million in wages this week due to production slowdowns, a number that would climb dramatically if the blockade continues, according to an analysis from the Anderson Economic Group.

“We are at an economic crisis at this moment because of this illegal blockade,” Michigan Governor. Gretchen Whitmer told CNN.

Experts say that the impact of the protests isn’t comparable to the semiconductor shortage, which forced automakers to cut production dramatically because they couldn’t get their hands on computer chips. This time around, manufacturers are working out other ways to get their hands on auto parts, such as air transport.

A Canadian judge on Friday ordered the protestors to end the blockade, though it remained unclear just how and when their trucks would be removed.

The protestors, dubbed the “Freedom Convoy,” have been blocking the bridge for five days in addition to disrupting another key US-Canada border crossing near Alberta. On Friday, they agreed to open one lane of traffic on the Ambassador Bridge for vehicles entering Canada but continued to block vehicles going into the US.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared a state of emergency on Friday afternoon that will allow the Canadian province to fine protesters blocking the bridge up to US$100,000 and sentence them to up to a year in jail.  

Canadian business groups have warned that if the government doesn't crack down on the protests, US companies could view the nation as an unreliable trading partner.

The US Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers and Business Roundtable, three of the largest business lobbying groups in the US, called on the Canadian government to intervene on Thursday night to prevent “production cuts, shift reductions, and temporary plant closures” 

“The North American economy relies on our ability to work closely together, including our manufacturing sectors,” the groups said in a statement. “We need to apply the same spirit of cooperation to tackle this problem.”

US President Joe Biden this week urged Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to end the crisis and offered American support, though Trudeau has insisted on working with local leaders rather than have the Canadian government step in.

Canada implemented a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for foreigners entering the country on January 15, this year, while the US enacted its own border mandate on January 22.

The rule drew criticism from some US business groups, which said that it would further exacerbate supply chain disruptions stemming from a shortage of truck drivers and chassis.

Anne Reinke, President and CEO of the Transportation Intermediaries Association, said that the cross-border mandate has made it far more difficult to find truckers willing to haul goods between the United States and Canada, driving up transportation prices. 

“By itself, the vaccine mandate would be bearable, but now along with all the other headwinds, it’s becoming a real huge challenge,” she said. “Ultimately, there’s a ripple effect on the consumer.”

 

Palestinian groups reject appointment of Abbas loyalists

Three Palestinian groups – Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) have rejected the appointment of loyalists of Palestinian Authority (PA) President, Mahmoud Abbas to senior positions in the PLO.

“No recognition of, and no legitimacy to, the appointments announced by the Palestinian Central Council (PCC) during its illegitimate meeting on Sunday and Monday,” the groups said in a joint statement.

The 142-member PCC – a key decision-making body of the PLO – consists of various PLO factions, including the PFLP. Hamas and PIJ are not part of the PLO or any of its bodies.

During the session in Ramallah earlier, the council approved the appointment of Abbas associates Hussein al-Sheikh, Rouhi Fattouh, Mohammed Mustafa and Ramzi Khoury to fill vacancies in the PLO Executive Committee and its parliament in exile, the Palestinian National Council (PNC).

Abbas’s critics said that he convened the council to promote his loyalists, especially Sheikh, and consolidate his power over the Palestinian leadership.

Sheikh, 62, head of the Palestinian General Authority of Civil Affairs, is regarded as one of Abbas’s most trusted aides. Some Palestinians are convinced that the 86-year-old Abbas is grooming him as his successor.

Sheikh was elected to replace Saeb Erekat, who served as Secretary General of the PLO Executive Committee and chief Palestinian negotiator until his death in 2020.

Fattouh, another longtime Abbas associate, was chosen as speaker of the PNC, replacing Salim Zanoun, who retired after 30 years on the job.

Mustafa and Khoury, who are also closely associated with Abbas, were picked by the PCC members to serve as members of the PLO Executive Committee, the organization’s most important decision-making body.

The promotion of the Abbas loyalists is seen by some Palestinians as an attempt by the PA president to determine the identity of the future leaders of the Palestinians.

The appointments, in addition, send a message to the Palestinians, Israel and the US that their next leaders will continue with the same policies of Abbas.

The rare joint statement by Hamas, PIJ and the PFLP said that the appointments “do not represent our people, and constitute a breach of the national consensus and a suppression of the will of the Palestinian people.”

The groups called on the Palestinian leadership to immediately cancel the appointments and end its hegemony over Palestinian institutions. They further called for the establishment of a transitional PNC that would pave the way for holding general elections.

The parliamentary and presidential elections were supposed to take place in May and July. Abbas, however, called off the elections on the pretext that Israel had refused to allow them to take place in Jerusalem. Abbas’s political rivals have rejected the claim, saying he canceled the vote over fear that his fragmented and corruption-riddled Fatah faction would lose.

Hamas, PIJ and PFLP said in their statement that there will be no return to the Oslo track, referring to the 1993 accords signed between the PLO and Israel. The groups stressed that the only way to deal with Israel was through resistance, and called for the formation of a national unified command of the popular resistance to act against IDF soldiers and settlers.

The PCC issued a final communiqué on Wednesday night saying that it has decided to end security coordination between PA security forces and the IDF, and suspend Palestinian recognition of Israel. The statement, issued a day after the IDF killed three Fatah gunmen in Nablus, is seen as an attempt by the PA leadership to placate the Palestinian public.

A similar statement issued by the council in 2018 was completely ignored by the PA leadership.

The three men killed were responsible for a series of shooting attacks on soldiers and settlers in the Nablus area in the past few weeks. Their killing sparked widespread anger among many Palestinians, some of whom claimed that this was the direct result of the security coordination with Israel.

The slain gunmen belonged to Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Some of their friends in Nablus accused the PA of helping Israel track them down, noting that two of them had been previously harassed and threatened by the Palestinian security forces in the West Bank.

The PCC decision to end security coordination and suspend Palestinian recognition of Israel has not been taken seriously by many Palestinians, including members of Abbas’s ruling Fatah faction.

“I thought I was reading the same statement that the council issued in 2018,” said a senior Fatah official in Ramallah. “Whoever issued the statement on Wednesday must think that the Palestinians are stupid. Everyone knows that decisions like these are just intended for international consumption and are never implemented.”

Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem played down the significance of the PCC statement, saying its decisions will remain ink on paper. The council meeting, he said, did not represent the aspirations of the Palestinians.