Russia emerges true winner of US war on Iran

The world's attention is fixed on the Persian Gulf, where the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become the epicenter of a brewing energy shock. With roughly 80% of crude oil moving through the waterway normally heading to Asia, the region is uniquely exposed.

At first glance, the fallout looks familiar: Rising tensions between the duo US-Israel and Iran are threatening supply chains and stoking fears of another oil spike. But the story quickly takes a less obvious turn. As Ritesh Kumar Singh argues, "Amid the focus on the most obvious losers, the energy-dependent economies of Asia and the exporters of the Persian Gulf, another country stands to gain from the turmoil, Russia."

When Hormuz becomes unstable, "global oil logistics shift rapidly," and Russia's export routes -- spanning the Baltic and Pacific gain fresh strategic weight. In this environment, Russia's export geography suddenly becomes one of the most valuable assets in global energy markets, offering buyers the increasingly scarce asset of reliability.

"For Russia ... higher global oil prices translate directly into stronger export revenues and greater fiscal resilience. In a prolonged geopolitical contest where economic stability matters as much as battlefield outcomes, that dynamic strengthens Moscow's hand," Singh writes. "The result is a paradox. A conflict intended to weaken Iran may ultimately redraw the global energy map in ways that favor Russia."

Even Washington's closest allies are hedging. Japan and South Korea have "refrained from openly endorsing US military action," favoring quiet coordination over public backing. For two treaty allies at the core of US strategy in Asia, the instinct now is careful calibration, not automatic alignment.

Across the region, positions diverge further. China has condemned the strikes while casting itself as a stabilizer, Taiwan has voiced support framed around "freedom and democracy," and much of Southeast and South Asia has leaned into neutrality, emphasizing restraint and flexibility amid energy risks and domestic pressures.

Indo-Pacific responses reflect "layered calculations about alliance management, energy security, domestic politics, ideological orientation and economic vulnerability," Grossman writes.

"That diversity may frustrate policymakers in Washington seeking unified backing if the conflict intensifies and requires additional support. Yet it also reflects a deeper strategic reality: Alignment in the Indo-Pacific varies widely, and even America's closest partners carefully weigh their own interests when distant conflicts threaten to expand."

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia