Motives Behind Strait of Hormuz Escalation

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is being widely blamed for the emerging shortages and surge in global oil and gas prices. However, this represents only one side of a far more complex narrative—one that is being actively shaped by the United States and amplified by sections of the Western media.

At a time when President Donald Trump is reportedly seeking an allocation of US$200 billion, the intent appears less about de-escalation and more about intensifying and prolonging the conflict. This raises a fundamental question, what is the real motive behind what is being portrayed as a response, but increasingly resembles a calculated escalation?

In my assessment, the United States has aligned itself closely with Israel, whose strategic objective remains the neutralization—if not outright elimination—of Iran as a regional rival. The broader vision often discussed in this context is the restructuring of the Middle East’s geopolitical order to suit their long-term strategic interests.

Both Washington and Tel Aviv were fully aware that any Iranian retaliation—particularly against Arab states hosting US military bases—would reinforce a long-standing narrative: portraying Iran as the principal threat to regional stability, thereby diverting scrutiny away from Israel’s own role.

There is also a significant economic dimension. A wider conflict risks damaging oil and gas infrastructure across key producing Muslim countries. Such a disruption could potentially reposition the United States and its allies to exert greater influence over global energy markets, enabling them to dictate supply dynamics and pricing.

A particularly telling signal is the reported statement attributed to Donald Trump regarding Kharg Island—not to destroy it, but to capture it. This underscores a strategic interest that extends beyond military objectives to direct control over critical energy assets.

The demand by the United States and Israel for Iran’s unconditional surrender must also be viewed through this broader lens. Both countries seek to consolidate their dominance in the Middle East. Israel benefits from geographical proximity, while leveraging the United States as a force multiplier in advancing shared strategic goals.

At the same time, influence over key global sectors—including defense industries, energy corporations, financial markets, and media platforms—plays a crucial role in shaping both policy and perception. The ongoing deliberations in Washington over massive military funding further reinforce the scale and seriousness of these ambitions.

It is also important to note how the justification for targeting Iran has evolved over time. What began as concerns over its nuclear program gradually expanded to include its missile capabilities, and eventually shifted toward calls for regime change under the banner of restoring democracy. Yet, beneath these shifting narratives, a more enduring objective appears to persist: gaining control over Iran’s vast oil and gas reserves.