Chinese exports grow first time in six months

Chinese exports grew for the first time in six months in November, suggesting factories in the world's second-largest economy are attracting buyers through discount pricing to get over a prolonged slump in demand.

Mixed manufacturing data for November has kept alive calls for further policy support to shore up growth but also raised questions about whether predominantly negative sentiment-based surveys have masked improvements in conditions.

Exports grew 0.5% from a year earlier in November, customs data showed on Thursday, as compared to a 6.4% fall in October. Imports fell 0.6%, dashing forecasts for a 3.3% increase and swinging from a 3.0% jump last month.

"The improvement in exports is broadly in line with market expectations... sequential growth in China's exports in the past few months has strengthened," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "There are green shoots in other Asian countries' export data as well in recent months."

The Baltic Dry Index, a bellwether gauge of global trade, climbed to a three year high in November, supported by improved demand for industrial commodities, particularly from China.

South Korean exports, another gauge of the health of global trade, rose for a second monthin November, buoyed by chip exports, which snapped 15 months of declines.

Trade with China's major peers also painted a rosy picture, with exports to United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all up on October.

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) last week showed new export orders shrank for a ninth consecutive month, while a private sector survey highlighted the struggles of factory owners to attract overseas buyers for a fifth month.

"While the level of export volumes hit a fresh high, (they were) supported by exporters reducing prices," noted Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

"We doubt this robustness will persist," Huang cautioned, "as exporters won't be able to continue cutting prices for much longer."

Factory gate prices in the official PMI contracted for a second month in November, while input costs expanded for a fifth straight month.

Still, some analysts point to quicker-than-expected growth in the third quarter and a run of mostly upbeat data from October to argue that recent hard data paints a less gloomy picture of the economic health of the Asian giant than the sentiment-based surveys. The hard data also suggest the support measures trickling out of Beijing since June have had some effect, they say.

"The data shows overseas demand is stronger than we thought and domestic demand is weaker than we thought," said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. "The biggest export items are still electrical machinery and cars, so demand in Europe and Russia will have bolstered outbound shipments."

Analysts say it is too early to tell whether the recent policy support will be enough to shore up domestic demand and how sustainable any uptick in overseas demand is, with property, unemployment and weak household and business confidence threatening a sustainable rebound at home.

The International Monetary Fund in November upgraded its China growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 0.4% percentage points each, but that came from a lower base. And Moody's on Tuesday slapped a downgrade warning on China's A1 credit rating.

The Chinese markets seemed to reflect that cautiousness, with the yuan easing against the dollar after the data, while country's blue chip CSI300 stock index fell 0.44% and Hong Kong's Hang's Hang Seng lost 1.46%.

China's crude oil imports in November fell 9.2% year-on-year, the first annual decline since April as high inventory levels and poor manufacturing activity took their toll on demand for products such as diesel. But iron ore imports climbed slightly last month.

"While export demand improved, it is unclear if exports can contribute as a growth pillar into next year," Pinpoint Asset Management's Zhang warned.

"The European and United States economies are cooling. China still needs to depend on domestic demand as the main driver for growth in 2024."

 

Bangladesh Elections: Battle of Begums

For the last three decades, the politics of Bangladesh have been the story of the two biggest political parties – Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party – both headed by begums.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina leads the Awami League, a party founded by her father and Bangladesh’s first president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is headed by Khaleda Zia, the country’s first woman prime minister.

The electoral politics in Bangladesh since 1991 has mostly been a Hasina versus Zia story. The two have served as the prime minister, in phases, since the last two decades.

Just ahead of the 2018 polls, Khaleda Zia was convicted in corruption cases and barred from contesting elections. The BNP, which contested the election after forming an alliance, won just seven seats, while the Awami League won 302 of the 350 seats.

Khaleda Zia, who was sentenced to 17 years in prison in 2018, was released from jail in 2020 and is under house arrest. The Bangladesh government hasn’t allowed her to fly out for medical treatment despite claims that she was at high risk of death.

The elections of 2014 and 2018 have been called out by opposition parties and the western media for not being free and fair. The same aspersions are being cast this time too.

“The January 2024 election in Bangladesh is going to take place without any credible opposition and with the predictable outcome that Sheikh Hasina will win for the fourth consecutive term and the Awami League will form the government. Top leaders of the major opposition BNP are in jail and hundreds and thousands of their activists are in prison,” Mubashar Hasan, an author and expert on Bangladesh politics, tells IndiaToday.In.

“The BNP is set to boycott the election as it is demanding an election under a neutral caretaker government. However, Hasina dismissed that demand, and she is going to organize an election under her administration. Against this backdrop, the next election will push Bangladesh firmly into an authoritarian trajectory,” says Hasan, a post-doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, Norway.

The BNP is demanding that Sheikh Hasina step down and a caretaker government be installed for the general election to be a free and fair exercise. It has taken to the streets and Bangladesh has seen large-scale violent protests in recent weeks.

Some 10,000 people, mostly opposition activists, have been arrested since October 28. Thousands of grassroots leaders have fled to remote corners of the country to avoid arrest.

Mubashar Hasan says millions of people who support the BNP are feeling disenchanted and deprived of their political rights. “There is a real worry that radical Islamist and militant Islamist outfits could manipulate such mindsets to recruit would-be jihadists,” says the Bangladesh expert.

BRICS an evidence of failure of Modi Doctrine

According to, Alan Paul Varghese, an independent foreign affairs and geopolitical analyst based in New Delhi, it became clear that India continues its alignment with the West and Israel.

At the BRICS Plus extraordinary meeting hosted by South Africa on the conflicts in West Asia, it became clear that India continues its alignment with the West and Israel. While most of the members reiterated how Israel’s settler colonialism is the root cause of the conflict, Indian external affairs minister S. Jaishankar stood firm on blaming Hamas. He also stated that there can be no compromise to terrorism.

The Modi doctrine of diplomacy for the past nine years has stagnated India’s internal reputation and aspirations. Narendra Modi had skipped the online meeting due to the election campaigns in poll-bound states.

Though the officials stated that Modi was preoccupied with the campaign schedules, it is obvious that the outcome of the extraordinary meeting was anticipated.

In a close examination of recent diplomatic events by India, one can categorically see how the Modi doctrine is failing to capture its promised achievements.

While the economy is trailing and seldom benefitted through trade agreements, the only resort of Narendra Modi and Jaishankar was their self-projection as the leader of the Global South.

It is noteworthy that the extraordinary meeting succeeded the Voice of Global South Summit which had references to ongoing genocide in Palestine.

BRICS Plus comprising of mostly countries from the global south has proved that India is isolated for its stand on the Israel-Palestine issue. This isolation has a serious impact on the future geo-political prospects of India.

In evaluating the BRICS extraordinary meeting Iran urged the members to cease economic and military interactions with Israel. Vladimir Putin who attended the meeting criticized the US monopolization of mediation efforts. He urged the international community to unite in an effort to achieve a speedy de-escalation and a ceasefire in Gaza, as well as a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and added that the BRICS nations and regional actors could play a leading role in this process.

This can be a possible indication of Argentina’s disassociation from BRICS as Milie, a far-right economist is a proactive supporter of dollarizing the economy. 

Xi Jinping in his address said “The root cause of the Palestinian-Israeli situation is the fact that the right of the Palestinian people to statehood, their right to existence, and their right of return have long been ignored. It has been often reiterated that the only viable way to break the cycle of Palestinian-Israeli conflict lies in the two-state solution, in the restoration of the legitimate national rights of Palestine, and in the establishment of an independent State of Palestine. There can be no sustainable peace and security in the Middle East without a just solution to the question of Palestine. China calls for early convening of an international peace conference that is more authoritative to build international consensus for peace and work toward an early solution to the question of Palestine that is comprehensive, just, and sustainable.”

Saudi Arabia called for the cessation of arms and ammunition supplies to Israel.

Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milie condemned Hamas and demanded that Israel must adhere to international humanitarian law.

India had three diplomatic events before this extraordinary meeting. The ICC World Cup, Voice of Global South Summit, and ministerial dialogue between India and Australia.

During the World Cup Modi tried for cricket diplomacy by inviting his counterparts of the UK and Australia. Though Rishi Sunak expressed his readiness, due to some reasons he didn’t make his presence.

A sideline discussion with Anthony Albanese prior to the 2+2 ministerial dialogue was expected to boost talks in favour of India. But Albanese prioritized the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit over his QUAD partner.

The core weakness of Modi doctrine – neglecting the neighbours was visible in the failed innings of cricket diplomacy. In the interview given to The Hindu, Australian finance minister Penny Wong in reply to a question on whether India’s urge to take action against the Khalistan group was fulfilled, she said “ ….In relation to that I’d say is we respect your sovereignty. And we also are very clear about the line between peaceful protests, freedom of expression, and violence and vandalism.”

She has already clarified that the cooperation with India is for the balancing of power to counter China. The failed cricket diplomacy, Australia’s stand on the India-Canada standoff, and the statements by Wong proved how India has turned into a vassal of the Western countries under the Modi doctrine.

The current stand of the union government has isolated India in the Global South. Meanwhile, China is on the verge of emerging as the new dominant player in West Asian geopolitics. In the background of the Saudi-Iran peace deal that was brokered by China, Arab countries held direct talks with Beijing.

The officials holding meetings with China were from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Indonesia, Palestinian authorities, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, among others. Succeeding this South Africa, one of the strongest allies of China in the African continent hosted the virtual meeting of BRICS. Joining the dots, China is set to emerge in the role of mediator. Arab countries met Chinese diplomats to give a strong message to the USA too.

With the BRICS extraordinary meeting, China was able to successfully entrap the United States between the Zionist pressure for continuous aggression and the Middle East pressure for a ceasefire. One will not be mistaken to assume that China is working to diminish the outreach of US in West Asia.

Though, a joint declaration was not issued from the statements of various leaders except Jaishankar all others demanded a ceasefire and held Israel’s settler colonialism as the reason for the conflict. They endorsed the initiatives of Arab countries for establishing peace. South African parliament has voted for the closure of the Israel Embassy in Pretoria.

Undoubtedly India has trailed from its glorious legacy of being the voice of global south. China emphasized on the strategy that India forgot during the Modi era. In the past, India’s diplomacy focused on creating a New Economic World Order based on the liberation of Asian, African, and Latin American countries from neo-colonialism. The Non-Aligned Movement led by India comprised countries that gained independence from colonial regimes.

These were not powerful countries but had the potential of multiple dimensions. It was never the service or submission to power that helped India and NAM to develop their influences. China has built deep economic cooperation with African and Asian post-colonial countries than with the Western countries.

Bharath Karnad assessed Modi’s foreign policy as “bowing to the powerful and bullying the weak.” Such policies only result in the rupture of the country’s power.

In an article written by Rahul Nath Choudhary in East Asia Forum, he noted that the majority of free trade agreements signed by India failed to cater better results. In the period between 2017 and 2022, India’s exports to its FTA partners increased by 31%, while its imports increased by 82%. India’s FTA utilization remains very low at around 25%, while utilization for developed countries typically is 70% to 80%. 

The alternative for this – bilateral agreements and multilateral forums can be achieved if India could revamp another NAM based on multipolarity and de-dollarization. If the escalation continues in West Asia the future of India’s Middle East Corridor will be forever at a crossroad. Even a peace treaty based on the intervention of China and BRIC countries will bring the same fate.

 

Bangladesh Election: Awami League and others

According to reports, besides finalizing candidates for its own party and alliance partners, the ruling Awami League (AL) is considering providing some seats to parties willing to join the next election amid boycotts by major opposition parties.

The ruling party is now passing a busy time to select its own contestants while working with seat-sharing mechanisms to create opposition as the last date of filing nominations is approaching for the January 07, 2024 election.

Candidates for the election can submit nomination papers until November 30, 2023. The AL is likely to announce candidates for 300 constituencies on Sunday.

The AL-led alliance partners are now adamant about joining the election as a coalition and are now lobbying for more seats than the 11th parliamentary polls amid uncertainty over the participation of the main opposition BNP.

During the past general election held in 2018, the AL candidates contested for 261 seats and refrained from participating for 26 seats in favour of the Jatiya Party, five seats in favour of the Workers Party of Bangladesh, three each in favour of Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Jasod and Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh, and one each in favour of the Bangladesh Tarikat Federation and Jatiya Party.

“We are negotiating with AL for more nominations for our party in the forthcoming election. We are pressing for more seats than in the previous elections,” Workers Party president Rashed Khan Menon told New Age.

He said that there was time until the withdrawal of nomination papers to settle the issue.

AL joint general secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim said that they would declare the party candidates first and then think about nominating candidates from partners.

Asked about the AL’s negotiation with other lesser-known political parties, he said that it was part of the party’s policy.

“We believe that any registered political party can join an election if they want. Anyone can create alliances with anyone having similar ideologies,” he said.

He said that there might be many political strategies, and nothing could be guaranteed.

In addition to regular partners, some small parties, including the newly formed Trinamool BNP, are also lobbying the Awami League for seats in exchange for promising to join the polls.

Leaders of Trinamool BNP and some Islamic parties, including Islami Oikya Jote, Bangladesh Islami Font, Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan, Bangladesh Muslim League, Islamic Font Bangladesh, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Bangladesh Islami Oikya Jote, and Jamiat-e-Ulama-e-Islam Bangladesh, met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in recent days to discuss their respective election strategies.

Neither the prime minister’s office nor AL or the parties made any formal statements about the outcome of those meetings.

The allegation has it that the Trinamool BNP and Bangladesh Nationalist Movement, labelled as King’s Party by many, are negotiating with AL to become the opposition in the parliament.

The newly-formed alliance Jukta Front, led by the Kalyan Party, demanded a few seats, although AL insiders said they could end up with one seat for Kalyan chairman Syed Muhammad Ibrahim, a retired major general.

BNM, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Bangladesh Muslim League, and Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan may also get one seat, party insiders said.

Jasod, a partner of the Awami League, finalized 181 candidates, said the party general secretary, Shirin Akhter.

“We want to join the polls with the alliance. The alliance is not only for joining polls but also a place of ideology”, she added.

Shirin said that many parties were now willing to join their alliance, creating difficulties.

At a briefing on Friday, AL general secretary Obaidul Quader said that they were not thinking so seriously about the political alliance in terms of sharing seats.

“The party will not give nominations to anyone who cannot win an election and does not have popularity among the people”, he added.

AL presidium member Abdur Rahman told New Age that the party’s seat-sharing plan has no connection with BNP’s joining or boycotting elections.

‘Our leader, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, will give nominations to eligible candidates from the alliance. The party will give candidates for 300 seats, and then our leader will decide about other alliances,’ he said.

According to AL insiders, there is a possibility that its alliance partners may participate in the polls independently with their own party electoral symbols.

In that case, the AL may not give nominations to any of its aspirants in some constituencies to create a pathway for them to win.

The ruling AL has decided to participate in the 12th Jatiya Sangsad election in alliance in some constituencies and alone in other consultancies, AL office secretary Biplob Barua told reporters on October 18, 2023.

The AL-led alliance was formed in 2005 and came to power for three consecutive terms in 2009, 2014, and 2018.

The Workers Party, Jasod, Ganatantri Party, and Jatiya Party-JP are among the most active parties in the alliance.

Ganatantri Party president Shahadat Hossain hoped that prime minister Sheikh Hasina would make it suitable for all.

“The prime minister will meet with the alliance soon. We can tell it only after the meeting”, he added.

AL’s preparation for the forthcoming election is underway at a time when the leaders and activists of the main opposition BNP and its allies keep facing arrest, raids, prosecution, and conviction.

 

Growing Chinese influence in Asia

The new economic framework of United States was intended to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. But the increasingly inward-looking Washington is no longer a champion of free trade, says S Rajaratnam School of International Studies’ Kevin Chen.

Three of the four Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) pillars may have been completed, but the inability of United States to see through the trade deal aimed at countering China’s economic influence is a strategic failure.

Hopes of an agreement were dashed last week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, even before former US president Donald Trump threatened to knock out the initiative if he were to return to power.

The IPEF was supposed to fill the policy gap left by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017.

It was styled as a novel economic agreement that provides a template for future economic engagement after years of rudderless drifting in the Indo-Pacific.

“You can count on the United States,” said Joe Biden at APEC. At its most basic level, the IPEF aimed to reassure America’s partners that it is still interested in a meaningful economic relationship with them. However, it has ostensibly fallen short of even that.

Southeast Asian observers should recognize that for domestic political reasons, Washington is no longer a champion of free trade. While they should continue engaging with the US on security issues, they should also be mindful that their region’s economic agenda is increasingly diverging from that of Washington’s.

The IPEF was challenging to negotiate from the outset, its demands and constraints a product of US domestic politics.

The lack of access to the US market removed a key incentive from the American negotiating toolkit. It was an effort to avoid a sensitive political issue: American public opinion has become generally less supportive of free trade due to the perception that cheap foreign goods are displacing American products, especially in key swing states and unions.

Believing that deep trade liberalization failed to protect American jobs and capacity, Biden’s administration bucked decades of free trade promotion to aggressively subsidise favoured industries in its competition with China. US$39 billion in manufacturing incentives was allocated under the CHIPS Act alongside US$370 billion in investments for clean energy under the Inflation Reduction Act to grow the US industrial base.

Meanwhile, labour and environmental standards were always a hard sell to partners such as Vietnam and Indonesia. These US demands tapped on these growing sentiments against free trade.

A common rallying call was that trade deals need to ensure strong labour and anti-dumping standards so American workers can compete on a level playing field – not just with Chinese workers, but with supply chains linked to China as well.

Yet, the IPEF was still vulnerable to the domestic forces it sought to appease. As a White House initiative, the IPEF was unlikely to garner financial support from a split Congress and could also be cancelled with a simple executive order by a future president.

Negotiators likely understood that the odds were stacked against them. The timeframe to complete IPEF negotiations was also relatively short at two years, compared to seven years for the TPP.

 

Saudi Arabia-China currency swap agreement

The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) has signed a three-year currency swap agreement with the Central Bank of China, marking a milestone in financial cooperation between the two nations.

The accord establishes a maximum swap value of 50 billion Chinese yuan.

This strategic agreement reflects the commitment of both central banks to enhance collaboration and strengthen ties founded on mutual interests.

The three-year duration underscores the long-term nature of this financial partnership, showcasing the enduring commitment of Saudi Arabia and China to bolstering their economic relations.

A new cold war the world is getting used to

According to Shawn Donnan of Bloomberg, the relationship between the United States and China is the most important and arguably most fraught in the world today. The meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping near San Francisco was unequivocally the most important event in the global economy this week.

The summit did what was intended by both sides. It put a floor under the relationship and re-established lines of communication. The danger of tensions spiraling out of control seems less today than they did a week ago.

It was hard to be in San Francisco digesting the geopolitical theater and not come to the conclusion that this is what a 21st century Cold War looks like.

Jude Blanchette, a longtime China watcher based in Washington, was prescient when he said ahead of this week’s meeting that managing a geopolitical rivalry isn’t sexy. It’s full of small but important steps that never really resolve the fundamental differences. And that’s what we got.

The two leaders agreed to resume communications between their militaries and to work together to stem the flow from China to the US of precursors and pill presses that are fueling America’s fentanyl crisis. There were agreements before and during the summit to work together to address the climate crisis and mull the consequences of artificial intelligence.

The fundamental differences between the two nations won’t go away. One is a democracy, the other a single-party Communist state. One has a market economy, the other an increasingly state-directed one. They are both in a competition that many on either side see as existential.

Xi deployed a smile rarely seen at home and sought to charm US business leaders who gave him a standing ovation. He pledged to send pandas that China had recalled just weeks before.

Biden rolled out a picture of a young Xi in front of the Golden Gate Bridge and sought to make him comfortable. But he also couldn’t resist doubling down and calling Xi a dictator again after he had left, laying it out as a plain factual label rather than a potential slight.

How this all plays out in 2024 with presidential elections coming in Taiwan in January and the US in November isn’t yet scripted.

Economics matter if it is power you want. Biden went into the meeting with the wind at his back as one US official put it thanks to an economy that has recovered better than its peers from the pandemic shock. And Xi was clearly on a charm offensive given the foreign investment he needs to turn around a slowing Chinese economy.

That could change in the months to come. There are signs the US economy is slowing. Consumers are still grumpy about inflation and more recently the higher interest rates deployed to rein it in.

Both sides have their own weaknesses, in other words. Xi has an economy undergoing a structural slowdown based in large part on demographics. Biden has an economy which many Americans still aren’t convinced works for them.

Historians will get to decide in the years to come whether this week’s meeting marked a turning point. But, regardless of whether they decide history turned or not, they very likely will agree we are living through a cold war that we’re all just getting used to.

 

Pakistan-China Joint Naval Exercises

The opening ceremony of the Pakistan Navy and PLA (Navy) bilateral exercise Sea Guardian-2023 was held at the Pakistan Navy Dockyard, Karachi.

Commander Qingdao Naval Base, Rear Admiral Liang Yang graced the occasion as Guest of Honour. Commander Pakistan Fleet, Vice Admiral Muhammad Faisal Abbasi was also present at the occasion.

In his opening remarks, Vice Admiral Muhammad Faisal Abbasi welcomed the officers and personnel of PLA (N) Flotilla, underscoring the close and strategic ties between the two countries in general and Navies in particular.

The admiral emphasized the importance of immaculate and sound planning during the exercise and hoped that this exercise would further enhance strategic cooperation and interoperability between the two navies.

In his speech, Commander Qingdao Naval Base Rear Admiral Liang Yang thanked the Pakistan Navy for hosting Exercise Sea Guardian and hoped to have a mutually beneficial and professionally rewarding experience from the joint exercise.

Earlier, the Chinese Flotilla comprising of naval ships, Submarine and Submarine Rescue Ship along with PLA (Navy) Marines Corps Detachment, arrived in Karachi to participate in the exercise.

During the exercise, frontline destroyers/ frigates along with Air and other assets and Marines/ Special Forces from Pakistan Navy and PLA (Navy) will carry out advanced-level joint drills and naval maneuvers in the North Arabian Sea besides professional and social activities during the harbor phase.

The objective of Exercise Sea Guardian-2023 is to share professional experiences on contemporary traditional and non-traditional threats in the Indian Ocean Region as well as to enhance bilateral cooperation and interoperability between the two Navies.

The exercise is a reflection of strong bilateral military cooperation between the Pakistan Navy and the Chinese Navy and will foster greater bilateral cooperation between the two navies.

 

 

Iran and China reach new agreements

Iranian Finance and Economic Affairs Minister Ehsan Khandouzi said the 25-year strategic partnership plan between Iran and China has entered a new phase with new agreements being reached between various ministries of the two countries, IRIB reported.

According to Khandouzi, the mentioned agreements have been reached between the two sides during the visit of Iran’s delegation to the 6th China International Import Expo (CIIE).

“Specific projects were defined between the government departments of the respective ministries of Iran and China, and agreements were reached on the details of the implementation of the mentioned projects,” Khandouzi said.

Regarding the private sectors of the two countries, some Iranian companies operating in China and some large Chinese companies operating in Iran faced obstacles, which were discussed and resolved by the relevant authorities, he explained.

“We are going to witness a significant growth in economic cooperation and investment between the two sides with the implementation of these projects,” the minister noted.

Headed by Iran’s First Vice President, Mohammad Mokhber, a senior delegation comprised of Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi, Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Abbas Aliabadi, as well as the deputies of various ministries and the economic deputy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs visited China last week to attend the 6th CIIE.

Iran and China officially signed the document for 25-year comprehensive cooperation in March 2021.

The document was signed between Iran’s former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

Back in December 2022, Iran and China finalized 16 memorandums of understanding (MoU) under the framework of the two countries’ strategic 25-year agreement.

The MoUs were signed in an Iran-China comprehensive cooperation program summit which was held in Tehran on December 13 in the presence of Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber and China’s Vice Premier Hu Chunhua.

The summit was focused on four areas explored by four committees between the two countries with the aim of paving the way for the implementation of the 25-year agreement.

Iran and China also signed 20 memoranda of understanding in the presence of the presidents of the two countries in Beijing in mid-February.

Heading a high-ranking delegation, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi was on a three-day state visit to China starting February 14.

During President Raisi's visit to China, Tehran and Beijing signed a number of bilateral cooperation documents in the fields of agriculture, trade, tourism, environmental protection, health, disaster relief, culture, and sports.

The documents include agreements in the field of transportation and industry worth US$12 billion and US$3.5 billion, respectively; the agreements cover various joint projects like the high-speed rail link between Tehran and Mashhad, and investment in the Imam Khomeini Airport City.

Investment in Iran's southeastern Mokran Coast and the purchase of Iranian oil were also mentioned in the documents.

Raisi's visit served as an example of the high level of mutual trust between China and Iran, as well as a milestone for bilateral ties.

Then in mid-July, the agreements signed between Iran and China during President Raisi’s trip to Beijing in mid-February were turned into specified projects during the two countries’ joint cooperation committee meeting, the Iranian finance and economic affairs minister announced.

Ehsan Khandouzi left Tehran for Beijing on July 12 to attend the Iran-China Joint Cooperation Committee meeting, which was held after four and half years.

“With the constructive atmosphere of the committee, we will soon witness good events in the fields of business and investment”, the official wrote on his Twitter account on July 16.

Khandouzi further announced that Iran and China are going to begin the execution of some joint projects agreed upon in February by the presidents of the two countries, as of the following month.

According to the minister, the necessary follow-ups regarding the mentioned projects have been made over the last five months and the final decisions for the start of their implementations were made during a joint business event on July 13.

“President Raisi had an important trip to Beijing last winter and good agreements were made with the president of China; in this regard, the necessary follow-ups were made by various ministries during the last five months, and on Thursday (July 13) the first joint committee between Iran and China was held after 4.5 years,” Khandouzi said.

“China is Iran's largest trading partner and the most important destination for the export of Iranian goods and an important part of our imports are also from China. Last year, China's share in Iran's (non-oil) trade was 24 percent,” the minister added.

Back in early April, the Chinese ambassador to Tehran said, "This year is a good year for Iran-China relations."

Chang Hua made the remarks in a meeting with the members of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce and a number of Iranian traders and businessmen, who conduct trade with China, held at the place of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) in Tehran.

Referring to China's growing economy, the envoy said this year is a good year for Iran-China relations, adding that during the meeting between the leaders of the two countries, important agreements were made, including the implementation of the 25-year cooperation agreement between the two countries, and a number of bilateral cooperation documents were signed in the fields of agriculture, tourism, culture, relief, and rescue, etc.

Majid-Reza Hariri, the head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber, also emphasized the desire of Iran's private sector to develop business relations with China and said there are obstacles in this direction. Among other things, issuing visas for Iranian businessmen, especially for their presence at trade fairs in China, is associated with problems, and facilitating it will definitely help the development of relations between the two sides.

 

 

Declining Chinese investment in US Treasury holdings

China continues to pare its holdings of US Treasuries, leading to market speculations over its motives. The country's stockpile of US government debt hit the lowest level in 14 years at the end of August 2023, with the pace of decline accelerating.

Some analysts said Chinese monetary authorities are leading the move to shore up the yuan, while others blame it for a recent bond rout in the United States.

"Maybe China is behind the rise in US long rates," said Apollo Global Management economist Torsten Slok in a blog posted in early October, when yields on long-term US bonds reached a 16-year high.

China's Treasury holdings started falling steadily after peaking in 2013.

The balance of US Treasurys held by China totaled US$805.4 billion in August, down 40% from a decade earlier, according to data from the US Treasury Department.

China once actively bought the securities with its ample foreign exchange reserves, becoming the second-biggest foreign investor in US Treasuries after Japan. Given the size of its holdings, China's selling could roil US bond prices, pushing up interest rates.

Not everyone, however, agrees with Slok's views, contending that China could just as easily move its holdings to overseas custodians without selling them. Yet many analysts focus on the decline in the country's Treasury balance as a sign of Beijing's strong determination to defend its own currency.

China is facing serious capital flight caused by rising concern about its economic growth and debt burden. In September, capital outflows reached US$75 billion, the biggest such monthly amount since 2016, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs. This exerts strong downward pressure on the yuan, which now trades at around 7.3 against the dollar, the lowest since 2007.

"China's state-run banks likely dumped the dollar around October 01, National Day," said a currency trader at a foreign bank, echoing the views of his peers. It appears that Chinese authorities urged state-run banks to shore up the yuan against dollars and they responded by selling Treasuries to raise needed funds.

Beijing has spent hundreds of billions of dollars out of its foreign exchange reserves on market interventions since 2015, when its devaluation of the yuan led to declines both in stock and currency prices.

Eager to maintain the current level of foreign reserve balances, Beijing may have pushed state-owned lenders to support the yuan on its behalf, according to analysts.

The yuan's daily reference rates announced by the People's Bank of China show the sense of crisis being felt by authorities. While the gap between the reference rate and the market value has widened to a record level, the official midpoint remains pegged at 7.17 to the dollar since mid-September. As China allows the yuan to fluctuate only within 2% on either side of the midpoint, it looks as if the country has reverted to a fixed-rate system.

Taking advantage of the country's lower interest rates spurred by monetary easing, some speculators engage in carry trade by borrowing in yuan and converting the money into currencies with higher interest rates. Goldman Sachs has proposed clients use borrowed yuan to fund bets on higher-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and other South American money.

As speculators seek profits by selling the yuan to buy other currencies, an increase in carry trade could further weaken the Chinese currency. Many analysts expect that if such speculative trading increases, Chinese authorities will have no choice but to step in to bolster the yuan -- possibly by unloading Treasuries.

However, the country's foreign currency reserves -- the source of Treasury purchases -- are unlikely to increase as in the past as export growth slows and the amount of foreign investment declines. Efforts by Western countries to de-risk economic ties with China have only begun to take effect.

If China continues to trim its Treasury holdings, market players may see it as a factor pushing up bond yields and thus as a matter of concern for the US Federal Reserve. The unsteady Chinese economy has added yet another unpredictable variable to global financial markets.

 

Isolating Iran No Longer Possible

The US President Joe Biden is convinced that one of the reasons Hamas launched the attack on Israel was the announcement during the G-20 Summit in New Delhi on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor .

Biden has been telling so many lies to reclaim its leadership role in the Muslim Middle East. The two most compelling realities rejecting the American leadership are: one, a strong united regional solidarity cutting across sectarian divides to seek a settlement on Palestine, like at no time before, and, two, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. 

The latest developments involving Hamas and Israel undermined the US efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel. No doubt, the Saudi stance on the Palestine problem has hardened.

Do these words sound as if Biden is preparing for a war with Iran? For the first time, perhaps, there is a ray of hope that the US will no longer work around the Palestine problem. The bottom line, as the deliberations at the UN Security Council also testify, is that all responsible powers understand that the Middle East continues to be the centre of gravity in world politics and a conflagration in the region could easily turn into a world war. And none of the big powers wants such an apocalyptic outcome. 

That said, while the US still has unrivalled power in the Middle East, its influence has diminished, as new realities emerged which include:

Israel has grown more powerful militarily and economically vis-a-vis Palestinians, but no longer enjoys regional dominance. 

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two dominant powers in the Middle East, are increasingly asserting their own interests. 

China, although a relatively new player, is no longer confining itself to economic diplomacy. 

US has lost the capacity to leverage the world oil market, as Russia works closely with Saudi Arabia within the ambit of OPEC Plus to calibrate oil production level and prices. 

Consequently, petrodollar is weakening.  

The Abraham Accords have been shelved practically. 

The Arab-Israeli conflict has assumed new dimensions in the recent years, thanks to the ascendance of the axis of resistance, which require new postures and operational thinking on the part of the US. 

Israeli politics has swung sharply to extreme right. 

The global environment is highly complicated; the peace process can no longer be under US mentorship.

Russia hosted a trilateral meeting in Moscow with Iran’s deputy foreign minister  and a Hamas delegation. Later, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Africa, announced that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will soon arrive on an official visit to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  

In an all-out war with Iran, the US will take heavy casualties and the state of Israel may face destruction.

Iran may opt for nuclear deterrent capability. It is a near-certainty that a US-Iran war will turn into a world war. Clearly, war is not an option. 

There is high risk, therefore, in an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. If Israel gets bogged down in Gaza, which by no means cannot be ruled out, there is a high possibility that Hezbollah may open a second front. And that, in turn, can trigger a chain reaction that may spin out of control. There is a danger if a ceasefire is not agreed upon early enough in the conflict, the repercussions could be very serious.

 

Iran: Chinese investment in railway and renewable energy projects

First Vice President of Iran on Thursday discussed the strengthening Tehran-Beijing ties with Premier of the People’s Republic of China Li Qiang in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The meeting was held on the sidelines of the 22nd session of the Council of Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Iran officially became a full member of the SCO in April 2023.

Mohammad Mokhber said the relations between Iran and China rooted in history and culture and said Iran has extensive capacities and capabilities that can be put to use in the two countries’ ties. 

Mokhber announced that Iran sees the development of ties with China as extremely important. “The development of Makran and Chabahar coasts, the construction of 15,000 megawatts of renewable power plants, mining development, Tehran-Mashhad and Tehran-Isfahan high-speed train projects, and transit cooperation in the west and east are all on Iran's agenda, and we welcome China's participation and investment in these areas,” the official noted. 

The vice president also emphasized the full implementation of the 25-year cooperation agreement between Iran and China. The deal signed in 2021 includes economic, military and security cooperation.

Mokhber also took the time to thank Beijing for its stance on Israel’s brutal attacks on Gaza which have so far resulted in the death of more than 7,000 civilians. 

“The bitter events in Gaza and Palestine hurt the heart of every noble, free, and conscientious person, and unfortunately, in the current chaotic situation and war crimes being committed by the Zionist regime in Gaza, most of the casualties are among civilians, women, and children”. 

The Chinese premier, for his part, described Iran as one of the major and influential countries in the West Asian region. “Iran's full presence and membership in Shanghai and BRICS will strengthen these organizations and be very useful for regional and global peace and stability,” he said. 

“The relations between the two countries have always had a growing trend since the establishment of political relations fifty years ago, and this year important agreements have been concluded between Tehran and Beijing with two meetings between the presidents of the two countries,” Li said, adding that Beijing regards Tehran as an important partner and seeks to further enhance ties with the West Asian country. 

 

US ultimatum to Prime Minister of Bangladesh

According to a report by The Bangladesh Chronicle, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary Afreen Akhter is believed to have conveyed the US government’s message to the Awami League regime; constitutional expert Shahdeen Malik says Hasina will defy such a move

The ruling Awami League government has been told in no uncertain terms by a senior United States official, who recently visited Dhaka, that the Sheikh Hasina regime may consider stepping down from power and hand over charge to the Jatiya Sangshad speaker by November 03, 2023.

Given the high stakes that are involved, it is unlikely that the Awami League in general and Sheikh Hasina in particular will readily comply with the US pressure to relinquish power, especially at a time when there is massive anti-incumbency besides grave charges of corruption, human rights abuses, malgovernance, among other issues, against the current regime.

It is believed that the message was conveyed to senior Bangladeshi officials by American Deputy Assistant Secretary (South Asia and Central Asia) Afreen Akhter during her meeting with Bangladesh foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen on October 16, 2023.

Besides raising the fraught issue of free, fair and participatory elections in Bangladesh, Akhter also discussed with the subjects of Rohingya refugees and the recent visit of a bipartisan American delegation comprising members of two important American think tanks with Momen, who confirmed this to reporters later the same day. Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs director general Masud Alam was present during the meeting between Akhter and Momen.

The Bangladesh foreign secretary had reacted sharply, saying, “Bangladesh objects to unnecessary foreign interference in its internal affairs”.

The sources said that Akhter placed two options before her Bangladeshi hosts, eight days before Sheikh Hasina is set to leave for Brussels on an official tour. As part of the first option, Sheikh Hasina government could resign and hand over charge to President Mohammad Shahabuddin who, incidentally left for Singapore on October 16 and is not expected to return to the country before October 30.

The last session of the Jatiya Sangshad is set to begin on October 22 and the government of the day will likely declare the official election notification in the last week of this month or the first week of November.

The second option, the US official presented before Momen and Masud, recommended transfer of power by the incumbent Awami League government to Speaker Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury by November 03 before paving the way for a truly free, fair, participatory and inclusive elections.

“The US prefers that the Sheikh Hasina regime opts for the second course,” a source, fully aware of the details of the American proposals, said.

Chaudhury was in New Delhi last week to take part in the Ninth G20 Parliamentary Speakers’ Summit. She had met Indian officials on the sidelines of the Summit.

The bases of the two options presented before the Bangladeshi leadership was that both were within the framework of the Constitution and therefore could be acted upon and considered by the government.

Chapter II of Part IV of the Bangladeshi constitution says:

“(1) The office of the Prime Minister shall become vacant
(a) if he resigns from office at any time by placing his resignation in the hands of the President; or (b) if he ceases to be a member of Parliament.
(2) If the Prime Minister ceases to retain the support of a majority of the members of Parliament, he shall either resign his office or advise the President in writing to dissolve Parliament, and if he so advises the President shall, if he is satisfied that no other member of Parliament commands the support of the majority of the members of Parliament, dissolve Parliament accordingly”.

Also, Article 54 of the constitution says, “If a vacancy occurs in the office of President or if the President is unable to discharge the functions of his office on account of his absence, illness or any other cause, the Speaker shall discharge those functions until a President is elected or until the President assumes the functions of his office, as the case may be”.

Importantly, it was indicated by the US deputy assistant secretary that failure to comply with the two options – but preferably the second – would be followed by a series of strong economic sanctions against Bangladeshi individuals, including influential businessmen and political leaders.

In the event of the ruling Awami League chosing to disregard the US ultimatum, as one source described the two options, the American authorities are said to have told their interlocutors in Dhaka that due processes of law would follow against a high value Bangladeshi individual residing in that country.

Speaking to Northeast News, one of Bangladesh’s foremost constitutional experts, Shahdeen Malik, said that in the event of a situation, political or otherwise, the prime minister will have to advise the president to dissolve parliament till the time fresh elections are held. The president, in turn, will ask the cabinet to continue. And, in the event the president is indisposed, for whatever reasons, the speaker will fulfill his duties and responsibilities.

Agreeing that there are lots of faults with the 15th amendment to the constitution, Malik said that it will be politically suicidal for her if she gives in to demands to quit.

Malik concluded that Sheikh Hasina will defy such moves and that he apprehends the regime will turn repressive.

 

Condemnation of Israeli deadline for Gaza evacuation

The United Nations has branded the Israeli evacuation order for more than one million Gaza residents to head to the southern Gaza Strip as horrendous and says the small enclave was rapidly becoming a hellhole.

The UN Palestinian refugee agency has hit out at Israel's order, saying, "This will only lead to unprecedented levels of misery and further push people in Gaza into abyss," General Philippe Lazzarini, its commissioner, said. 

"The scale and speed of the unfolding humanitarian crisis is bone-chilling. Gaza is fast becoming a hellhole and is on the brink of collapse.

"There is no exception, all parties must uphold the laws of war; humanitarian assistance must be provided at all times to civilians," Lazzarini remarked.

The UN says it is not possible for everyone in north Gaza to leave. 

The Israeli occupation had ordered 1.1 million Palestinians in Gaza to flee from their homes in the north and move south. The question is where to? There is no safe place in Gaza. 

This is the most densely populated place on the Earth - more than 2.2 million people live in a strip of land that's 40 kilometers long. 

Gaza City in the north is a major urban city. It can't be emptied out. 

Palestinians can't leave the Gaza Strip because the Israeli occupation regime controls almost all its exit points and they are trapped inside. It's been that way for 17 years. 

In a statement, the United Nations aid chief Martin Griffiths has said that "Gaza was under intense bombardment" and "roads and homes have been reduced to rubble."

"Forcing scared and traumatized civilians, including women and children, to move from one densely populated area to another, without even a pause in the fighting and without humanitarian support, is dangerous and outrageous," he added. 

Egypt controls the southern Rafah border crossing and it is also closed. Egypt has rejected calls from the Israeli army for Gaza's northern residents to flee south.

Its foreign ministry has called the measure a grave violation of international humanitarian law, exposing more than one million people to danger.

Earlier this week, Egyptian authorities rejected an Israeli recommendation that Palestinians fleeing its air strikes should cross the southern border into Egypt.

Despite authorities in Gaza warning of an Israeli plot to occupy the northern part of the territory and called on residents to stay steadfast, those who have traveled south have been killed by Israeli airstrikes anyway.

Reflecting the cruelty of the regime, it gave a hospital in Gaza "just two hours to evacuate" on Friday, a humanitarian organization said. 

MSF International said Al Awda Hospital has been told to evacuate staff and patients by the country. 

"Our staff is still treating patients," it said in a statement posted on social media.

"We unequivocally condemn this action, the continued indiscriminate bloodshed and attacks on health care in Gaza. 

"We are trying to protect our staff and patients." 

There is only one major highway bridge over a small river that Israel is ordering more than one million people to cross, which in reality is practically impossible to do.

The Norwegian Refugee Council, which works in occupied Palestine, has described Israel’s demand that 1.2 million people in Gaza leave their homes as a war crime.

Jan Egeland, the secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, has released the following statement:
“The Israeli military demand that 1.2 million civilians in northern Gaza relocate to its south within 24 hours, absent of any guarantees of safety or return, would amount to the war crime of forcible transfer. It must be reversed.

“The collective punishment of countless civilians, among them children, women, and the elderly ... is illegal under international law.

“My colleagues inside Gaza confirm that there are countless people in the northern parts who have no means to safely relocate under the constant barrage of fire.

“The loss of civilian lives caused by deliberate or indiscriminate use of force is a war crime for which the perpetrators will have to answer. We fear that Israel may claim that Palestinians who could not flee northern Gaza can be erroneously held as directly participating in hostilities, and targeted.

“The United States, the UK, the European Union, and other Western and Arab Nations who have influence over the Israeli political and military leadership must demand that the illegal and impossible order to relocate is immediately rescinded.”

Oxfam International has made similar accusations against the regime.

"The world can see that this evacuation order is both utterly inhumane and impossible; the Israeli government must rescind it immediately. We implore the international community to use its utmost influence to intervene - there are hospitals full of patients, women, children and elderly people who cannot move. Even for those who could move, there is no food, no water and little shelter. This must be stopped," the charity group said.

TURKEY

Turkey has branded Israel's merciless 24-hour deadline a grave mistake.

The Turkish foreign ministry has said it is completely unacceptable for Israel to order people in the north of Gaza to move south within 24 hours.

The warning, issued by Israel as it prepares for a ground offensive, was inhumane and violated international law, Turkey's foreign ministry said.

"Forcing the 2.5 million people of Gaza - who have been subjected to indiscriminate bombing for days and who have been deprived of electricity, water and food - to migrate in an extremely limited area is a clear violation of international law and has no place in humanity," it said.

"We expect Israel to immediately reverse this grave mistake and urgently halt its merciless... acts against civilians in Gaza."

Airstrikes have been carried out all over Gaza. From refugee camps in the north like Jabalyia to central Deir al Baha and south to Rafah, no part of Gaza has been spared from Israeli attack. 

The regime has not provided any detail about how hundreds of thousands of traumatized Palestinians, the sick, the elderly and children are meant to travel, what road to take or where to go. 

Gazans are stressed, sleep-deprived and exhausted. Many will be hungry and weak from the last eight days of a relentless bombing campaign.

Roads are bombed, whole neighborhoods wiped out, there's a constant threat of air attack. 

Warning people in some areas of the tiny besieged enclave to get out ahead of an imminent ground invasion is a common Israeli military practice in its recurrent wars on Gaza.

Sometimes the Israeli military drops leaflets in neighborhoods ahead of a bombardment - as they did on Friday. They are also known to call the owner of a house to get out before they bomb it.

None of these measures have been undertaken under the current cycle of Israeli bombardment, which has been unprecedented. 

With no way to get out and nowhere to go, Israeli demands to empty north Gaza is aimed at terrifying the Palestinians.  

Authorities in Gaza have said the Israeli demands are a propaganda campaign and have called on Gaza's residents to stay put.

They say Israel wants to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip like its ethnic cleansing in 1948. This time, authorities warn, invaders also intend to eventually replace the emptied land with Israeli settlements. 

Amid the international outcry, the US, Israel’s staunchest ally, has been under heavy pressure to react.

The White House has been forced to issue a response to the Israeli demands. 

This is a tall order, White House national security spokesman John Kirby says.

"That is a lot of people to move in a very short period of time," he said in an interview on MSNBC. 

Kirby tried to somehow justify Israeli war crime by saying "we understand what they're trying to do and why they're trying to do this - to try to isolate the civilian population from Hamas, which is their real target." 

Critics argue the real Israeli target is the entire population of Gaza which the regime wants to cleanse ethnically. 

RUSSIA

Putin says civilian losses from an Israeli ground operation would be unacceptable

Speaking during a visit to Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Putin said, "Israel is replying on a large scale and also with quite cruel methods."

"In my view it is unacceptable," Putin said. “More than 2 million people live there ... all of them have to suffer, including women and children. Of course, it’s hard for anyone to agree with this.”

Russian president has called on the Israeli regime not to go ahead with a ground operation in Gaza. 

Putin said such an operation would result in an "absolutely unacceptable" level of civilian casualties.  

The Russian president added that there had been unacceptable calls in the US for a blockade of Gaza on a par with the siege of Leningrad by Nazi Germany in the Second World War.

CHINA

Earlier on Friday, the regime's foreign ministry expressed deep disappointment with China’s lack of condemnation of Hamas’s attack on Israel.

China has historically supported the Palestinian cause, but in recent months Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed for closer ties with Beijing. 

Since the latest conflict broke out, China has called for a two-state solution but has resisted Western calls for Beijing to condemn Hamas.

Israel-Hamas war tests Beijing’s aspirations

The war erupting between the Palestinian group Hamas and Israel poses a complex test for China's aspirations to become a key diplomatic player in the Middle East as Beijing was looking to broker new peace talks.

Earlier this year, China had pledged to help facilitate negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Chinese state media trumpeted the possibility of a settlement based on a three-part proposal by Chinese President Xi Jinping. But the outbreak of severe violence may have shattered those hopes for the foreseeable future, while creating new challenges for China.

"This is like a tightrope walk that they have to perform," said Moritz Rudolf, a China scholar and fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. "They have an economic interest in the stability of the region and they also have increased their political role."

After Hamas launched a deadly surprise attack on Saturday - firing thousands of rockets, sending fighters into Israeli communities and taking hostages back to Gaza - countries in Asia and around the world quickly condemned the killing of civilians. The death toll in Israel has surpassed 900, while nearly 700 have been killed on the Palestinian side amid a wave of retaliatory airstrikes on Gaza, according to local officials.

Unlike the United States, India, Japan and others, which have come out forcefully in support of Israel, the Chinese government has maintained a neutral position.

Beijing's official response to the Hamas attack on Saturday called for an immediate cease-fire and repeated its support for a two-state solution with an independent State of Palestine as a way out of the conflict. It did not condemn Hamas.

On Sunday, China's permanent representative to the United Nations, Zhan Jun, said China was worried about escalation.

"What's important is to prevent further escalation of the situation and casualties of civilians," Zhang told reporters before an emergency closed-door security meeting. "We condemn all attacks against civilians," he stressed.

President Xi has yet to make any public statement.

Historically, China has had close diplomatic ties with Palestinian leaders. The president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, this year made his fifth official visit to China in his nearly two decades in office. But in recent years, China has also deepened relations with Israel, investing in infrastructure and the country's vibrant technology sector.

Beijing's muted initial reaction to the violence did not go unnoticed.

On Sunday, Yuval Waks, a senior official at the Israeli Embassy in Beijing, said his country expected a stronger response from the world's second-largest economy.

"When people are being murdered, slaughtered in the streets, this is not the time to call for a two-state solution," Waks told reporters. "We believe that China as a superpower in this world ... should have taken a stronger stand."

But Beijing appears more comfortable playing a mediator role. In March, China brokered discussions between bitter rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, enabling a diplomatic rapprochement. Analysts saw this as a challenge to US influence in the region.

In June, China outlined its vision for brokering peace between Israel and the Palestinians. But in doing so, it stuck its neck into a delicate situation that has vexed the US and other powers for decades.

Even though Israel and the Palestinians signed the Oslo Accords in September 1993, agreeing on a road map to peace, unsuccessful negotiations for a two-state solution have perpetuated tensions and violence. Talks have stalled since 2014, and the prospect of a deal appears to have become even more remote under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition government and Hamas' sudden offensive.

Some observers argue that Beijing's silence on Hamas casts doubt on its ability to realize its ambitions in the region.

"China is still not willing to call Hamas out directly, and instead has tried to refer to them as combatants using language as ambiguous as possible, because it doesn't want to be seen as betraying its developing world friends - especially when that friend is engaged in hostilities against a leading US ally, namely Israel," said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist focusing on China at Australian National University.

Indeed, the conflict could further complicate China's already tense relations with Washington.

Xi on Monday met with US Senate leader Chuck Schumer, who was visiting with a bipartisan congressional delegation. Schumer expressed disappointment with China's lack of sympathy for Israel. "I urge you and the Chinese people to stand with the Israeli people and condemn the cowardly and vicious attacks," Schumer said to Xi.

After Schumer's visit, China's foreign ministry stressed that it condemns all violence and attacks on civilians and that the most urgent task now is to reach a ceasefire and restore peace. The US senator, writing on Xi, claimed credit: "I pointedly asked that they strengthen their statement. They did."

The same day, however, the Chinese state mouthpiece Global Times published an article criticizing American support for Israel, arguing it will only fan the conflict. "Israel already outweighs Palestine in terms of military might; if the US wants peace, it should take actions to calm down the situation, instead of giving one-sided support to Israel," Tian Wenlin, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, was quoted as saying.

The story suggested that the pressure from Schumer is part of a US attempt to morally abduct China.

For now, Yale's Rudolf said that China will likely take a more risk-averse approach that advocates for humanity and civilians, without positioning itself on either side.

"The key thing is for China, they don't want to get sucked into this conflict," he said. "At some point, when great powers are to meet and to talk about this situation, China just wants to have a seat at the table, and the difference now is that they're taking it more seriously."

Courtesy: Nikki Asia

 

Ten dumbest things propagandists want people to believe

There is no denying to the fact that we live under an empire that’s held together by lies. Here are the top ten dumbest things the US-led propagandists want to believe.

1. The US war machine has been surrounding its top two rivals China and Russia with war machinery as an act of defense, rather than an extremely provocative act of aggression.

2. The war in Ukraine simultaneously was completely unprovoked, and just coincidentally happens to massively advance US strategic interests and therefore should be funded as much as possible.

3. Although all the other wars were based on lies and resulted in disaster, but that couldn’t possibly be the case for this current war.

4. The foreign policy of any country is determined by the elected government, even though the foreign policy remains the same regardless of who is in office.

5. It is only by pure coincidence that any country’s population remains in a perpetual 50–50 deadlock which prevents anyone’s votes from changing the status quo, and the status quo just happens to be perpetually frozen along lines that hugely advantage the rich and powerful.

6. The only reason anyone could possibly be critical of the most dangerous impulses of the world’s most powerful and destructive government is if they are a secret agent working for the enemies of that government.

7. The western empires that spent the last two decades murdering Muslims in the Middle East suddenly care very deeply about the Muslims in China.

8. Putin invaded Ukraine solely because he is evil and hates freedom, and that the western empires are pouring weapons into Ukraine because they love Ukrainians and wants to protect their freedom and democracy.

9. The foreign propaganda and influence operations are significantly manipulating the way westerners think and vote, but the plutocrats who fully control all the most influential platforms in the western world are not.

10. Countries need to be worrying about tyrannical enemies in Beijing and Moscow, instead of tyrannical enemies a lot closer to home.

 

UN Security Council condemns Israeli violations

At a UN Security Council session on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, many representatives of the 15 member states criticized Israeli violations against Palestinians, with notably strong criticism from Russia and China. 

Kicking off the session, Tor Wennesland, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, spoke via a video conference and updated the meeting with his latest report for the period June 15 to September 19, 2023. 

The senior UN official reiterated to the Security Council the Secretary-General’s appeal for an end to the occupation and a resolution of the conflict as members echoed those calls and underlined a need to return to peace negotiations.

Wennesland pointed to the ongoing expansion of Israeli settlements, demolition of Palestinian homes, daily Israeli violence and continued inflammatory rhetoric by the Israeli cabinet.

He reported the latest settlement activity by Israel is advancing plans for 6,300 settler units in the occupied West Bank, and approximately 3,580 settler units in occupied eastern al-Quds (East Jerusalem), pointing to the Israeli administrative actions that likely expedited settlement expansion.  

Israeli authorities, citing a lack of Israeli-issued building permits, which are almost impossible for Palestinians to obtain, demolished, seized or forced people to demolish 238 structures, including 32 donor-funded ones, displacing 183 people, including 46 women and 91 children. 

Alarmingly, 59 schools, serving around 6,500 Palestinian students, are at risk of demolition to make way for Israeli settlers. 

“In a continuing trend, many Palestinians, including children, left from their communities citing violence by settlers and shrinking grazing land,” he also warned.

Wennesland noted that during this period, Israeli forces killed at least 68 Palestinians, including 18 children. 
Ten Israelis were also left dead by Palestinians in attacks and other incidents, the UN special coordinator added.  

Experts argue that Palestinians have a legitimate right enshrined under international law to wage retaliatory operations and resistance in the face of the brutal military occupation and ethnic cleansing campaign. 

Israeli forces’ 1,042 search-and-arrest operations in the West Bank have resulted in the arrest of 1,504 Palestinians, including 88 children, he added, highlighting that the regime currently holds 1,264 Palestinians in administrative detention - the highest number in over a decade. 

Wennesland also provided details on the urgent funding needs of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and the World Food Program (WFP).

In the ensuing discussion, council members stressed that the expanding Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory are a violation of international law and must cease.

Some representatives of states mostly allied to Israel also voiced concern about the ongoing violence and lack of any political progress, calling on all parties to exercise maximum restraint and take steps to de-escalate tensions.

Vasily Nebenzya of the Russian Federation recalled Israel's increasing steps to create irreversible facts on the ground and said that the ongoing explosive situation is a direct result of aggressive Israeli abuses in the occupied Palestinian territories. 

The current Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN warned against the legalization of settlement outposts and the violation of the status quo of the holy sites of occupied al-Quds (Jerusalem). 

Referring to Israel’s plan to increase the number of Israelis in the north of the occupied West Bank from 170,000 people to 1 million by 2050, with US$200 million allocated for that, Nebenzya said it goes against the relevant Security Council decisions and is contrary to international law.  
“The increase in violence against Palestinian minors and the demolition of educational institutions, including those built with donor funds, are of particular concern,” Nebenzia said, adding that the United States continues to promote Arab-Israeli normalization, circumventing the logic of the Arab Peace Initiative.  

“Russia is committed to the creation of a Palestinian State within the 1967 borders with occupied al-Quds (East Jerusalem) as its capital,” he stated.

Several diplomats proposed ways to enhance efforts in resolving the conflict, with China’s envoy in particular calling for higher priority to be given to an international peace conference. 
Beijing has been leading the calls for an international peace conference to end the suffering of Palestinians. 

China has been much more diplomatically involved in Palestinian affairs since Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas for a four-day state visit to Beijing in June. 

China's UN representative, Geng Shuang, also voiced support for President Abbas’ call for the Security Council to dispatch a mission to Palestine in due course. 

He urged the cessation of all settlement activities, unilateral actions to change the status quo in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, and escalation of settler violence. 

Geng also called on the "occupying power" to remove unreasonable restrictions on the movement of persons, goods and land use, and to lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip as soon as possible.

Brazil’s representative pointed out that the Security Council has become unresponsive to the Palestinians’ plight, stressing that the 15-member body must reflect on its role in paving the way for direct negotiations.  

“Sitting on our hands while the situation unravels is short-sighted and dangerous,” Sergio Franca Danese warned.

The Brazilian ambassador also recalled that his country’s president highlighted the overdue establishment of a Palestinian state as an example of longstanding unresolved disputes lingering on while new threats emerge.

Brazil recognized the State of Palestine in 2010. 

Pointing out that the Council has become unresponsive to the Palestinians’ plights, he stressed that "this must change".

The Brazilian diplomat called on Israel to curb settler violence and condemned any action aimed at altering the status quo of the holy sites. 
Furthermore, Danese highlighted the importance of fostering the Palestinian economy, addressing governance challenges and respecting human rights, announcing that Brazil will enhance its contributions to projects in those areas.

Gabon’s representative also called for the lifting of the Gaza blockade in line with Security Council resolution 1860 (2009), noting that Palestinian territories face budgetary constraints because of restrictions on freedom of movement and trade.

Vanessa Frazier of Malta condemned “episodes of settler violence which have terrorized Palestinian communities”. 

Japan’s representative was among the speakers who voiced support for UNRWA, underlining Tokyo's contribution of over US$40 million to the program. He urged Member States to make sure that UNRWA maintains its core services for Palestinian refugees.

Ambassador Ishikane Kimishiro also noted that lack of political progress is jeopardizing peace and security in the region. He also echoed other members' demands for Israel to immediately cease settlement activities. 

Ghana's Felix Akom Nyarku, referring to the increasing acts of settler violence, stressed that the destruction of infrastructure and properties in both the occupied Palestinian territories and in occupied al-Quds dangerously imperils the viability of peace.

He called on the international community to provide short-term investments to help the Palestinian Authority improve people’s access to education, health care, and employment as well as repair basic infrastructure and strengthen fiscal stability.
Andres Efren Montalvo Sosa of Ecuador highlighted that 2023 marks the most violent year in the region since 2005 (for Palestinians) and voiced concern about the increasing number of victims, expanding settlements, and daily violence.  

Western states, including the United States, the United Kingdom and France also made similar calls on Israel to cease its settlement activity, but critics say these statements cannot be taken at face value.

Much of the machinery, including bulldozers, with which the settlements are expanded on Palestinian land, are bought from the West, in a similar manner to how annual US military aid to Israel contributes to the killing of Palestinian women and children.

This comes as the Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs Commission released new data on Thursday showing that Israel has arrested more than 135,000 Palestinians since the outbreak of the al-Aqsa Intifada (Second Intifada) in 2000.

The commission said that these arrests affected all classes of Palestinian society, including children, women, and the elderly.
Nearly 21,000 Palestinian children have been arrested since 2000. 
In addition, half of the Legislative Council members, a number of ministers, hundreds of academics, journalists, and workers in civil society organizations and international institutions have been detained. 
Nobody has been spared by the regime.
The report also highlighted that more than 2,600 Palestinian girls and women were arrested by the regime's forces, including four women who gave birth in prison under harsh and difficult conditions.