Tuesday 10 October 2023

Israel-Hamas war tests Beijing’s aspirations

The war erupting between the Palestinian group Hamas and Israel poses a complex test for China's aspirations to become a key diplomatic player in the Middle East as Beijing was looking to broker new peace talks.

Earlier this year, China had pledged to help facilitate negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Chinese state media trumpeted the possibility of a settlement based on a three-part proposal by Chinese President Xi Jinping. But the outbreak of severe violence may have shattered those hopes for the foreseeable future, while creating new challenges for China.

"This is like a tightrope walk that they have to perform," said Moritz Rudolf, a China scholar and fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. "They have an economic interest in the stability of the region and they also have increased their political role."

After Hamas launched a deadly surprise attack on Saturday - firing thousands of rockets, sending fighters into Israeli communities and taking hostages back to Gaza - countries in Asia and around the world quickly condemned the killing of civilians. The death toll in Israel has surpassed 900, while nearly 700 have been killed on the Palestinian side amid a wave of retaliatory airstrikes on Gaza, according to local officials.

Unlike the United States, India, Japan and others, which have come out forcefully in support of Israel, the Chinese government has maintained a neutral position.

Beijing's official response to the Hamas attack on Saturday called for an immediate cease-fire and repeated its support for a two-state solution with an independent State of Palestine as a way out of the conflict. It did not condemn Hamas.

On Sunday, China's permanent representative to the United Nations, Zhan Jun, said China was worried about escalation.

"What's important is to prevent further escalation of the situation and casualties of civilians," Zhang told reporters before an emergency closed-door security meeting. "We condemn all attacks against civilians," he stressed.

President Xi has yet to make any public statement.

Historically, China has had close diplomatic ties with Palestinian leaders. The president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, this year made his fifth official visit to China in his nearly two decades in office. But in recent years, China has also deepened relations with Israel, investing in infrastructure and the country's vibrant technology sector.

Beijing's muted initial reaction to the violence did not go unnoticed.

On Sunday, Yuval Waks, a senior official at the Israeli Embassy in Beijing, said his country expected a stronger response from the world's second-largest economy.

"When people are being murdered, slaughtered in the streets, this is not the time to call for a two-state solution," Waks told reporters. "We believe that China as a superpower in this world ... should have taken a stronger stand."

But Beijing appears more comfortable playing a mediator role. In March, China brokered discussions between bitter rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, enabling a diplomatic rapprochement. Analysts saw this as a challenge to US influence in the region.

In June, China outlined its vision for brokering peace between Israel and the Palestinians. But in doing so, it stuck its neck into a delicate situation that has vexed the US and other powers for decades.

Even though Israel and the Palestinians signed the Oslo Accords in September 1993, agreeing on a road map to peace, unsuccessful negotiations for a two-state solution have perpetuated tensions and violence. Talks have stalled since 2014, and the prospect of a deal appears to have become even more remote under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition government and Hamas' sudden offensive.

Some observers argue that Beijing's silence on Hamas casts doubt on its ability to realize its ambitions in the region.

"China is still not willing to call Hamas out directly, and instead has tried to refer to them as combatants using language as ambiguous as possible, because it doesn't want to be seen as betraying its developing world friends - especially when that friend is engaged in hostilities against a leading US ally, namely Israel," said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist focusing on China at Australian National University.

Indeed, the conflict could further complicate China's already tense relations with Washington.

Xi on Monday met with US Senate leader Chuck Schumer, who was visiting with a bipartisan congressional delegation. Schumer expressed disappointment with China's lack of sympathy for Israel. "I urge you and the Chinese people to stand with the Israeli people and condemn the cowardly and vicious attacks," Schumer said to Xi.

After Schumer's visit, China's foreign ministry stressed that it condemns all violence and attacks on civilians and that the most urgent task now is to reach a ceasefire and restore peace. The US senator, writing on Xi, claimed credit: "I pointedly asked that they strengthen their statement. They did."

The same day, however, the Chinese state mouthpiece Global Times published an article criticizing American support for Israel, arguing it will only fan the conflict. "Israel already outweighs Palestine in terms of military might; if the US wants peace, it should take actions to calm down the situation, instead of giving one-sided support to Israel," Tian Wenlin, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, was quoted as saying.

The story suggested that the pressure from Schumer is part of a US attempt to morally abduct China.

For now, Yale's Rudolf said that China will likely take a more risk-averse approach that advocates for humanity and civilians, without positioning itself on either side.

"The key thing is for China, they don't want to get sucked into this conflict," he said. "At some point, when great powers are to meet and to talk about this situation, China just wants to have a seat at the table, and the difference now is that they're taking it more seriously."

Courtesy: Nikki Asia

 

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