Biden has been telling so many lies to reclaim its leadership role in the Muslim Middle East. The two most compelling realities rejecting the American leadership are: one, a strong united regional solidarity cutting across sectarian divides to seek a settlement on Palestine, like at no time before, and, two, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement.
The latest developments involving Hamas and Israel undermined the US efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel. No doubt, the Saudi stance on the Palestine problem has hardened.
Do these words sound as if Biden is preparing for a war with Iran? For the first time, perhaps, there is a ray of hope that the US will no longer work around the Palestine problem. The bottom line, as the deliberations at the UN Security Council also testify, is that all responsible powers understand that the Middle East continues to be the centre of gravity in world politics and a conflagration in the region could easily turn into a world war. And none of the big powers wants such an apocalyptic outcome.
That said, while the US still has unrivalled power in the Middle East, its influence has diminished, as new realities emerged which include:
Israel has grown more powerful militarily and economically vis-a-vis Palestinians, but no longer enjoys regional dominance.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two dominant powers in the Middle East, are increasingly asserting their own interests.
China, although a relatively new player, is no longer confining itself to economic diplomacy.
US has lost the capacity to leverage the world oil market, as Russia works closely with Saudi Arabia within the ambit of OPEC Plus to calibrate oil production level and prices.
Consequently, petrodollar is weakening.
The Abraham Accords have been shelved practically.
The Arab-Israeli conflict has assumed new dimensions in the recent years, thanks to the ascendance of the axis of resistance, which require new postures and operational thinking on the part of the US.
Israeli politics has swung sharply to extreme right.
The global environment is highly complicated; the peace process can no longer be under US mentorship.
Russia hosted a trilateral meeting in Moscow with Iran’s deputy foreign minister and a Hamas delegation. Later, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Africa, announced that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will soon arrive on an official visit to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In an all-out war with Iran, the US will take heavy casualties and the state of Israel may face destruction.
Iran may opt for nuclear deterrent capability. It is a near-certainty that a US-Iran war will turn into a world war. Clearly, war is not an option.
There is high risk, therefore, in an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. If Israel gets bogged down in Gaza, which by no means cannot be ruled out, there is a high possibility that Hezbollah may open a second front. And that, in turn, can trigger a chain reaction that may spin out of control. There is a danger if a ceasefire is not agreed upon early enough in the conflict, the repercussions could be very serious.
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