Friday, 11 April 2025

Saudia rejects displacement of Palestinians

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on Friday rejected any proposal involving the forced displacement of Palestinians. He stressed that the residents of Gaza are deprived of the basic necessities of life.

Speaking at the meeting of the Ministerial Committee for International Action to End the War on Gaza, held in Antalya, Turkey, Prince Faisal reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s refusal of any scenario that includes removing Palestinians from their land, reports the Saudi Gazette.

He criticized attempts to link the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza to a ceasefire, and urged the international community to intensify efforts to secure unimpeded aid delivery.

Prince Faisal reiterated the Kingdom’s support for ongoing ceasefire negotiations and commended the mediation efforts led by Egypt and Qatar.

A joint communiqué issued after the meeting denounced any form of forced displacement or expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, the West Bank, or East Jerusalem.

The statement supported the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and encouraged the unification of Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, under the Palestinian Authority.

The committee also called for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in accordance with UN resolutions and condemned Israeli violations of international law in the occupied territories, including settlement expansion, home demolitions, and land confiscations.

Thursday, 10 April 2025

US lawmakers question Trump's Iran talks

According to The Hill, President Trump is set to open direct talks with Iran this weekend in a high-stakes push for Tehran to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions, raising a chorus of questions and concerns from lawmakers in both parties. 

Iran on Monday said the “high-level talks,” set to start in Oman on Saturday, would be indirect, seeming to contradict Trump, who said earlier Monday, “We’re having direct talks with Iran.”

It’s also unclear if the president is looking to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities — similar to the Obama-era agreement he trashed in 2018 — or demand the full destruction of its facilities.

Rep. August Pfluger, chair of the influential Republican Study Committee, said anything short of a nuclear disbandment was unacceptable. 

“A full commitment that they, not just when Trump is president, but whoever follows President Trump is there, that there is a firm commitment, and we know, we can verify, and there’s a complete dismantlement of their nuclear enterprises,” he told The Hill.

The uncertainty over Trump’s endgame has strained relations with Israel, which is wary of any US engagement with Iran, a sentiment shared by many on Capitol Hill. 

“I worry a little bit that this seems to be done, almost going around Israel,” said Sen. Mark Warner , the ranking member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

“I just worry that with the complete disruption of most of our alliances, I think our negotiating position is weakened,” he added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program while sitting next to Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, saying he wants to see the “Libya model” applied to Israel’s top adversary.  

Trump has warned, “Iran is going to be in great danger” if the talks fail. And Netanyahu has long been mulling an assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities — though such a major move would be unlikely without some level of US backing.

The fact the talks are happening at all signals that pragmatic voices in Trump’s ear are winning out over Iran hawks, at least for the moment. 

 

Europeans sidelined in US-Iran nuclear talks

Washington's decision not to coordinate with European nations about its negotiations with Iran on Saturday will reduce its leverage and make US and Israeli military action against Tehran ultimately more likely, reports Reuters.

The United States did not tell European countries about the nuclear talks in Oman before President Donald Trump announced them on Tuesday, even though they hold a key card on the possible reimposition of U.N. sanctions on Tehran, three European diplomats said.

"The United States is going to need a coordinated diplomatic strategy with its European allies going into these negotiations with Iran," said Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

That coordination is "crucial to making sure that there is maximum pressure and any diplomatic option has a chance of success," Misztal said.

Trump, who restored a "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran in February, on Wednesday repeated threats to use military force against Iran if it didn't halt its nuclear program and said Israel would be "the leader of that."

The West suspects Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, which it denies. The threat of renewed sanctions is intended to pressure Tehran into concessions, but detailed discussions on strategy have yet to take place with the Americans, the diplomats said.

Because the United States quit a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, it cannot initiate its mechanism for reimposing sanctions, called snapback, at the United Nations Security Council.

That makes Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, the only deal participants capable of and interested in pursuing snapback, so it is crucial that Washington align with these allies, analysts said. Israel, Iran's arch-enemy, has already lobbied the E3 to initiate it.

According to the three diplomats, the E3 told Iran they would trigger the snapback mechanism by the end of June. Iran responded that doing so would mean harsh consequences and a review of its nuclear doctrine, the diplomats said.

"The E3 do not trust the United States because it is taking initiatives without them being consulted," said a senior European diplomat.

Trump withdrew the US in 2018 from the nuclear deal with Iran also signed by Russia and China. The accord curbed Iran's nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. Russia opposes restoring sanctions.

Under the nuclear accord, participants can initiate the 30-day snapback process if they are unable to resolve accusations of Iranian violations through a dispute-resolution mechanism. But that opportunity expires on October 18 when the accord ends.

Since the US exited the deal in 2018, Iran has far surpassed its uranium enrichment limits, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran is producing stocks of fissile purity well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy program and close to weapons grade.

The US administration's approach echoes Trump's first term in office, when he also prioritized unilateral talks with Iran, and with his stance on the war in Ukraine, where Washington has begun direct talks with Moscow, sidelining Europeans.

European officials have held some meetings with US counterparts but said they were not sufficiently in-depth.

Even a meeting on Iran with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of a NATO foreign ministers meeting a week before Trump's announcement was difficult to arrange, three E3 officials said.

The British, French and German foreign ministries did not respond directly when asked if they had been made aware of the Oman talks ahead of time.

"We remain committed to taking every diplomatic step to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including through snapback if necessary," a British foreign ministry spokesperson said.

France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said tersely on Wednesday that the French "take note with interest" the talks.

Having negotiated with Iran as a trio as far back as 2003 on the nuclear issue, the European countries consider their role essential to a solution. In the 2015 deal, a key carrot for Iran was being able to trade with Europe.

The Europeans have helped the United States pressure Iran in recent months, including at the UN atomic watchdog and with new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile program, detention of foreign citizens and support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.

During the US policy vacuum after Trump won the election but before he took office, the Europeans tried to take the initiative by holding exploratory talks with Iran that began in September and have continued.

The E3 said that was necessary because time was running out before the 2015 deal expires on October 18, 2025. They have tried to sound out whether new restrictions, albeit narrower than those agreed in 2015, could be negotiated before then.

Diplomats said that in those talks, Iranian officials have often quizzed their counterparts on the new US administration.

"Iran believes that talks with the E3 and other parties to the nuclear deal can help defuse tensions over its nuclear program and can be complementary to talks with the US," said an Iranian official.

 

 

 

Iran Talks Spark Bipartisan Concerns on Capitol Hill

US President Donald Trump’s decision to engage in high stakes talks with Iran this weekend has raised concerns across party lines on Capitol Hill. The talks, reportedly set to begin in Oman, are framed as direct by Trump, but Iran claims they’ll be indirect. Uncertainty surrounds Trump’s objectives—whether he seeks full nuclear dismantlement or limitations similar to the Obama-era JCPOA, which he withdrew from in 2018.

Rep. August Pfluger insists that anything short of a complete nuclear disbandment is unacceptable. Lawmakers also question the potential sidelining of Israel, a key US ally, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has called for the “Libya model” of total dismantlement. Tensions rise as Netanyahu considers action against Iran’s facilities, though such a move would likely need US backing.

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff has taken over the Iran file and advocates for a robust verification program to ensure Iran’s compliance. However, skepticism remains high among lawmakers. Sen. Tommy Tuberville supports a verifiable deal but doubts its feasibility, while Sen. Roger Wicker warns against trusting Iran.

Iran's nuclear capability has advanced significantly since the JCPOA. Experts now say Iran could fuel a bomb within weeks. However, US intelligence maintains Iran has not yet chosen to weaponize its nuclear material.

Despite its nuclear progress, Iran has lost leverage. Its regional influence has waned due to conflicts with Israel and economic decline under US sanctions. The Iranian currency has plummeted, inflation is high, and the government struggles to provide basic services.

Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi views the upcoming talks as a genuine diplomatic opening, citing recent communication with the US. He also appealed to Trump’s business instincts, suggesting a potential “trillion-dollar” opportunity through cooperation.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons or threaten regional stability. Yet Iran signals it may accept JCPOA-like terms for sanctions relief, though it rejects broader US demands. As both sides lower expectations, Iran insists military threats must be removed for diplomacy to succeed.

Iran Deal Must Include Blowing Up and Dismantling Nuclear Sites, demands Netanyahu

According to media reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a firm warning regarding any future nuclear agreement with Iran, stating that only a Libya-style disarmament approach would be acceptable. Speaking Tuesday just before departing Washington, Netanyahu emphasized that Iran’s nuclear program must be physically dismantled and destroyed under direct American supervision.

“We agree that Iran will not have nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu declared. “This can be done by agreement, but only if this agreement is Libyan-style: They go in, blow up the installations, dismantle all of the equipment under American supervision and carried out by America this would be good.”

The remarks come ahead of renewed nuclear talks between Iran and the United States in Muscat, Oman. While President Trump described the negotiations as “direct,” Iran insists they will be indirect, facilitated through mediators.

Trump, speaking alongside Netanyahu in the Oval Office on Monday, underscored his administration’s uncompromising stance, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. If it can be done diplomatically in a full way, the way it was done in Libya, I think that would be a good thing.”

Netanyahu also highlighted several other strategic discussions held with Trump, including the ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza. He reiterated Israel’s dual objectives, “We are determined to eliminate Hamas, and at the same time, we are determined to return all of our hostages.”

Addressing critics, Netanyahu said, “The president looked at me and told the journalists who were present ‘This man is working constantly to free the hostages.’ I hope that this shatters the lie… that I don’t care. I do care, and we will be successful.”

Netanyahu also disclosed discussions on the future of the Gaza Strip, revealing that Israel is in dialogue with several countries about accepting Palestinian civilians. “In the end, this is what needs to happen,” he said.

The prime minister voiced concern about Turkey’s intentions to establish military bases in Syria, which he warned would threaten Israel. “We oppose this and are working against it,” he told Trump.

Finally, Netanyahu praised Trump’s economic diplomacy, stating that Israel would work to eliminate its trade deficit with the United States. “This is the little that we can do for the US and its president, who does so much for us.”

Describing the visit as “very warm,” Netanyahu hinted that more developments are forthcoming, “There were additional things that you will hear about later.”

 

 

Southeast Asian rice farmers struggle against Indian exports

According to Nikkei Asia, prices in Southeast Asian rice markets are plunging because of oversupply after India resumed exports of the staple grain. White rice export prices in Thailand were US$412 a ton this month, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, down 31% from US$599 per ton a year ago. This is the largest price drop in 11 years for the month of April.

In September 2024, New Delhi lifted export restrictions on white rice other than basmati that had been in place since July 2023. India last month also started allowing exports of cheaper broken rice, used in processed food. Most analysts say the international price of white rice will continue to drop.

Thailand is the world's second-largest rice exporter by volume, according to data from the 2022-2023 season. Agriculture accounts for less than 10% of gross domestic product, but a lack of willingness by Thai rice farmers to grow the crop will affect food security at home and abroad.

Last month about 300 farmers demonstrated in Bangkok, calling on the government to act on cratering prices. "If the rice fields die, the country dies," read a sign at the gathering.

A woman in her 50s who was demonstrating demanded the resignation of Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan, whose ministry is in charge of exports.

"The government doesn't care about the plight of farmers," she said.

In Vietnam, the world's third-largest rice exporter, prices have fallen steeply as well. Export prices are currently around US$400 a ton, about 40% lower as compared with the end of 2023, according to the Vietnam Food Association.

Vietnamese media report prices are at the lowest point in nine years. In some cases, Vietnamese rice is cheaper than Thai or Indian varieties. Some expect this year's export volume to be 20% lower than last year.

India is the world's leading exporter, accounting for 40% of the global share, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Exports from India surpass those of Thailand and Vietnam combined.

Measures taken by importing nations are also hurting farmers in Thailand and Vietnam.

Indonesia, the world's fourth-largest rice consumer, will halt imports this year. President Prabowo Subianto, who took office in October 2024, is promoting more agriculture to make good on a pledge to attain food self-sufficiency by early 2026.

The Philippines declared a food security emergency in February 2025 in an attempt to control inflation. The government released rice stockpiles into the market, lowering prices.

In recent weeks, there appears to be an increasing number of rice importers in the Philippines attempting to negotiate lower prices.

"Because rice is the staple food in Southeast Asia, rice prices are an issue that directly affects people's lives," said Tetsuya Kaneko, chief analyst at the Marubeni Research Institute. "With importing countries trending toward improving self-sufficiency rates, export volumes from countries such as Thailand and Vietnam will face downward pressure in the medium to long term."

Rice exporters are taking steps to mitigate the fallout. Last month, the Thai government said it held talks with India and Vietnam to stabilize export prices by adjusting export volumes and avoiding excess competition.

No concrete agreement has been reached, but the parties intend to continue discussions.

Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh called on financial institutions to support farmers by easing interest rates. The Ministry of Finance is set to provide tax relief for rice producers.

Japan, which is facing a historic rice shortage, hosted an international food expo in March 2025 where the government of Thailand promoted its rice. Vietnam has also identified Japan as a promising export destination on par with the United States and Africa.

Unlike Thailand and Vietnam where long-grain rice is the norm, Japan consumes mostly short-grain varieties. This wrinkle explains much of the discrepancies between the three markets.

Kenichi Shimomura, head of the Asia Japan desk at the German consultancy Roland Berger, says Japan rice demand is greater than what was witnessed during the rice shortage in the early 1990s. Japan imported Thai rice on an emergency basis back then.

"The key is how much cheaper imports can be compared to Japanese rice," said Shimomura.

 

 

US imposes China centric global trade war

US President Donald Trump's stunning decision to pause the hefty duties he had just imposed on dozens of countries sent battered global stock markets surging on Thursday, even as he ratcheted up a trade war with China.

Trump's turnabout on Wednesday, which came less than 24 hours after steep new tariffs kicked in on most trading partners, followed the most intense episode of financial market volatility since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The upheaval erased trillions of dollars from stock markets and led to an unsettling surge in US government bond yields that appeared to catch Trump's attention.

"I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line, they were getting yippy, you know," Trump told reporters after the announcement, referring to jitters sportspeople sometimes get.

US stock indexes shot higher on the news, with the benchmark S&P 500, opens new tab index closing 9.5% higher, and the relief continued into Asian trading on Thursday with Japan's Nikkei index surging 8%.

European futures also pointed to big gains, but there were already signs the rally may be short-lived with US stock futures trading lower. Oil prices also fell around 1%, extending a grim spell fuelled by fears that the trade tensions could push the global economy towards recession

Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has repeatedly threatened an array of punitive measures on trading partners, only to revoke some of them at the last minute. The on-again, off-again approach has baffled world leaders and spooked business executives.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asserted that the pullback had been the plan all along to bring countries to the bargaining table. Trump, though, later indicated that the near-panic in markets that had unfolded since his April 02 announcements had factored in to his thinking.

Despite insisting for days that his policies would never change, he told reporters on Wednesday، "You have to be flexible."

But he kept the pressure on China, the world's second economy and second biggest provider of US imports. Trump immediately hiked the tariff on Chinese imports to 125% from the 104% level that kicked in on Wednesday.

Chinese companies that sell products on Amazon are preparing to hike prices for the US or quit that market due to the "unprecedented blow" from the tariffs, the head of China's largest e-commerce association said.

Beijing may again respond in kind after slapping 84% tariffs on US imports on Wednesday to match Trump's earlier tariff salvo. It has repeatedly vowed to "fight to the end" in the escalating trade war between the world's top two economies.

"The US and China are currently in a powerplay game of brinkmanship," said ING global head of markets Chris Turner.

Beijing said it had held talks with the European Union and Malaysia on strengthening trade in response to the tensions, although Australia said it had rebuffed an offer from China, its top trading partner, to work together to counter the tariffs.

"We are not going to be holding hands with China in respect of any contest that is going on in the world," Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles told Sky News.

Hopes of state support helped prop up Chinese stocks on Thursday, even as its yuan currency fell to its weakest level since the global financial crisis.

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, 9 April 2025

China calls for world to unite against Trump's trade tyranny

According to a BBC report, China has called for the world to unite against US President Donald Trump's tariffs as the country's exporter reel from crippling new US levies that have risen to 104%.

"Global unity can triumph over trade tyranny," declared an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily, noting Beijing's collaborations with Japan, South Korea and other Asian economies. A separate piece called for the European Union to work with it to "uphold free trade and multilateralism".

Beijing "firmly opposes and will never accept such hegemonic and bullying practices," foregin ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters on Wednesday.

The tariffs come at a difficult time for China's sluggish economy: domestic consumption remains weak and exports are still a major driver of growth.

The sweeping nature of Trump's tariffs has also left Chinese businesses scrambling to adjust their supply chains — with most countries affected, firms say it's hard to find a way out of this uncertainty.

The tariffs will shrink "already razor-thin profit margins", said the owner of a Chinese business that handles cross-border logistics for e-commerce, as well as air and sea freight.

"Higher tariffs raise costs for freight forwarders like us, as well as for factories, companies, and sellers. It just means everyone earns less."

Any tariff upwards of 35% will wipe out all the profits that Chinese businesses make when exporting to the US or South East Asia, said Dan Wang from the Eurasia Group consultancy.

"Growth is going to be much lower since exports contributed to 20% to 50% of growth since the Covid pandemic," she added.

The Chinese government has not announced retaliatory measures but Beijing is reportedly considering banning Hollywood films and suspending fentanyl cooperation with the US, according to Chinese blogger Liu Hong, who is a senior editor at state-run Xinhua news.

But that would offer little comfort to firms like Fuling, a firm that sells disposable tableware to US fast food restaurants like McDonald's and Wendy's, said the additional tariffs will "significantly impact" its business. It noted that nearly two-thirds of the company's revenue in 2023 and the first half of last year came from the US.

To mitigate the impact of tariffs, Fuling, which is headquartered in China's Zhejiang province, started a new factory in Indonesia late last year.

But Trump's new tariffs have introduced more uncertainty for Chinese exports from Indonesia are now subject to a 32% levy, the company said in a corporate filing.

Indonesia was hit along with much of the world in President Trump's announcement of expansive tariffs last week, which he claimed would allow the US economy to flourish.

But economists have warned of a US and global recession. The tariffs have also shaken global markets and drawn criticism from billionaire CEOs, including Trump's ally Elon Musk.

Trump's import taxes include a 10% baseline tariff on almost all foreign imports to the US, and higher custom tariffs for what he calls the "worst offenders". These include Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%) and Thailand (36%), developing economies that have benefited from strong exports.

After Beijing announced tit-for-tat tariffs, Trump raised the levies on Chinese imports, more than doubling them to 104%.

Emo told the BBC he is holding out hope that China will be able to negotiate away some of these taxes: "Only when a final decision is made can we plan our next steps."

While China has left the door open for talks, Trump has not spoken to Chinese leader Xi Jinping since returning to the White House.

Such broad, sweeping tariffs will cause more harm than good, the American Chamber of Commerce in China said in a note to its member companies on Wednesday.

"This level of upheaval is unprecedented, and it remains unclear how the current measures will benefit consumers in either nation or the broader economy," read the note signed by Chair Alvin Liu and President Michael Hart.

Some analysts believe the levies will force China to restructure its economy and rely heavily on domestic consumption, which it has been struggling to boost.

Otherwise, the tariffs will not be sustainable for China in the longer term, Tim Waterer from brokerage KCM Trade said.

"The tariffs are aimed at suppressing China," said the manager of a Chinese freight company.

Wu Changchun added that many of the South East Asian countries that have been hit with steep tariffs are "exactly where many Chinese businesses have relocated", such as Vietnam and Cambodia.

The Tianjin-based company plans to negotiate with some of its American clients to share the burden of the tariffs. "Every case is different, but overall, the impact has been quite substantial," he said.

Wu, whose company operates mainly on shipping routes between China and Cambodia, said he is already seeing a fall in freight volume.

Several construction projects in Cambodia have also come to a halt after Trump's tariffs announcement, he said.

"If the tariffs were at 10% or 20%, businesses might still be able to absorb the cost by optimizing supply chains, cutting margins and sharing the burden. Trade could still go on... [But at 104%] that's no longer something trade-offs can fix," said Wu, a general manager at Maritima Maruba.

"That's full-on decoupling. Trade would basically come to a standstill."

Around 25% tunnels in Gaza destroyed

According to The Jerusalem Post, IDF has only destroyed about a quarter of Hamas’s tunnels in Gaza. Security sources also added that a significant number of smuggling tunnels crossing from Egypt to the Gaza strip are still intact. The Egypt-Gaza border remains a point of contention, with concerns over weapons smuggling resulting in Israel’s refusal to withdraw from the Philadelphia Corridor. 

“I saw with my own eyes quite a few tunnels crossing into Egypt; some were closed, and several were open,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said at a February conference, according to N12.

“We had information that Hamas was planning to attack soldiers and settlements during the ceasefire.”

Despite efforts to control the corridor as a buffer zone, numerous experts argue that holding the border may not effectively stop the flow of weapons.

The report follows the recent resumption of combat operations in the Gaza Strip and a military order issued in late March directing residents of Rafah in southern Gaza to evacuate.

The IDF had previously withdrawn troops from Rafah after a ceasefire was agreed upon in January, though that ceasefire has since expired.

Less than two weeks ago, the IDF reported that Yahalom Unit troops dismantled a one-kilometer-long Hamas tunnel route. Currently, the 143rd, 252nd, and 36th IDF divisions are operating in the area.

The IDF also told N12 that it has detected a significant number of Hamas terrorists fleeing combat zones. These terrorists are reportedly hiding among civilian populations and within tunnels, likely trying to avoid direct contact with soldiers.

The military noted that its operations in Gaza have become more decentralized, with limited face-to-face combat, although it assumes this will be temporary. The IDF believes Hamas will eventually be forced to engage in direct confrontation again.

“IDF troops, under the leadership of the Southern Command, are deepening the operation, and this will continue at a deliberate and determined pace,” said Chief of the General Staff, Lt.-Gen Eyal Zamir.

“The only thing that can halt our advance is the release of our hostages. Their return would allow our forces to reposition and enable the continuation of negotiation.” 

 

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia announces oil and gas discoveries

Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced on Wednesday that the Saudi-Aramco has discovered 14 Arabian oil and natural gas fields and reservoirs in the Eastern Province and the Empty Quarter. The discoveries include six fields and two reservoirs of Arabian oil, as well as two fields and four reservoirs of natural gas, reports the Saudi Gazette.

The minister extended his congratulations to Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman on these discoveries, expressing his wishes for continued growth, development, and prosperity of Saudi Arabia and its people.

Prince Abdulaziz stated that Jabu oil field has been discovered in Eastern Province, following the flow of Arabian Extra Light Oil in Jabu-1 well at a rate of 800 barrels per day (bpd). Sayahid oil field was also discovered, where Arabian Extra Light Oil flowed in Sayahid-2 well at a rate of 630 bpd. Additionally, Ayfan oil field was discovered, where Arabian Extra Light Oil in Ayfan-2 well flowed at a rate of 2,840 bpd, with 0.44 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of associated gas per day.

He said that Jubaila oil reservoir has been discovered in Berri field after Arabian Light Oil flowed in Berri-907 well at a rate of 520 bpd, associated with 0.2 MMscf of gas per day. In addition, Unayzah-A oil reservoir was discovered in Mazalij field after the flow of Arabian Super Light Oil in Mazalij-64 well at a rate of 1,011 bpd, along with 0.92 MMscf of associated gas per day.

In the Empty Quarter, Nuwayr oil field has been discovered after the flow of Arabian Medium Oil in Nuwayr-1 well at a rate of 1,800 bpd, with 0.55 MMscf of associated gas per day. Additionally, the oil field Damda was discovered, where Arabian Medium Oil flowed in Damda-1 well at a rate of 200 bpd from Mishrif-C reservoir, while Arabian Extra Light Oil flowed from Mishrif-D reservoir in the same well at a rate of 115 bpd. Also, the discovery of Qurqas oil field was confirmed after Arabian Medium Oil flowed in Qurqas-1 well at a rate of 210 bpd.

For natural gas, the minister of energy announced the discovery of Ghizlan gas field in the Eastern Province, where gas flowed in Ghizlan-1 well at a rate of 32 MMscf per day from Unayzah B/C reservoir, with 2,525 barrels of condensate. Also, Araam gas field was discovered after gas flowed in Araam-1 well from Unayzah B/C reservoir at a rate of 24 MMscf per day with 3,000 barrels of condensate.

Qusaiba unconventional gas reservoir was also discovered in Mihwaz field in the Eastern Province, where gas flowed in Mihwaz-193101 well at a rate of 3.5 MMscf per day, with 485 barrels of condensates. In the Empty Quarter, Arab-C gas reservoir was discovered in Marzouq field, where gas flowed in Marzouq-8 well at a rate of 9.5 MMscf per day. The same well also resulted in the discovery of Arab-D gas reservoir, after the flow of gas at a rate of 10 MMscf per day. Additionally, the Upper Jubaila gas reservoir was discovered from the same well, where gas flowed at a rate of 1.5 MMscf per day.

Prince Abdulaziz underscored on the importance of the added value that these discoveries represent, solidifying the Kingdom’s leading position in the global energy sector, and reinforcing its rich hydrocarbon potential. Citing that such discoveries will lead to opening new horizons for the Kingdom’s economic development and strengthening its ability to meet both domestic and global energy demand efficiently and sustainably for decades to come. "These discoveries will also support sustained economic growth and prosperity, in line with Vision 2030 and Saudi Arabia’s ambitious goals to fully harness its natural resources and enhance global energy security," the minister added.

 

 

Tuesday, 8 April 2025

Freeing Panama Canal from Chinese influence

The United States will free the Panama Canal from Chinese influence, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday during a visit to the Central American nation.

After talks with Panaman government, Hegseth vowed to deepen security cooperation with Panamanian security forces and said China would not be allowed to "weaponize" the canal by using Chinese firms' commercial relationships for espionage.

"Together, we will take back the Panama Canal from China's influence," Hegseth said, speaking at a pier renovated with U.S. assistance in Panama City.

"China did not build this canal. China does not operate this canal and China will not weaponize this canal. Together with Panama in the lead, we will keep the canal secure and available for all nations."

More than 40% of US container traffic, valued at roughly US$270 billion a year, goes through the Panama Canal, accounting for more than two-thirds of vessels passing each day through the world's second-busiest interoceanic waterway.

Hegseth, the first US defense secretary in decades to visit Panama, flew over the canal in a Black Hawk helicopter after meeting US troops and Panamanian security forces. He also toured the Miraflores lock, waving to sailors passing through on a container ship.

His language appeared fine-tuned, talking tough but offering some assurances to Panamanians still unsettled by Trump’s threats to reclaim the canal.

While Hegseth spoke about removing Chinese influence, Trump has spoken in broader terms and not ruled out using military force.

Hegseth's trip follows reports that the Trump administration has requested options from the US military to ensure access to the canal, which the United States built more than a century ago and handed over to Panama in 1999.

Trump has complained that was a bad deal for the United States.

Given Trump's tough rhetoric, the stakes were high for Hegseth's visit.

"On the whole, this hasn't been a winning issue for the United States in terms of public diplomacy in Panama," said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Still, current and former US officials and experts say the United States has found a willing partner in tackling Chinese influence in Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino, whom Hegseth met earlier on Tuesday.

In February, Mulino announced Panama's formal move to exit China's Belt and Road Initiative and he has aided Trump's crackdown on migrants.

He has accepted deportation flights of non-Panamanians and worked to stem migration from South America by those crossing through his country's dangerous Darien jungle.

Hegseth praised Mulino, saying his government understood the threat from China, and his remarks about Panama being in the lead on addressing the canal's security concerns appeared to be a nod to Panamanian sensitivities.

During his visits to bases, which once had names including Fort Sherman and Rodman Naval Station before the US exit, Hegseth spoke about the canal as "key terrain" and held out hope for more frequent engagements by US troops, including by revitalizing a jungle survival training center.

"In reality or in perception, the communist Chinese have had designs on more control of this canal, and to that we say Not on our watch," Hegseth told US troops and Panamanian security forces. "We will grow our partnership even more."

Hegseth, a US military veteran and former Fox News host, has enthusiastically backed Trump's southern-focused security agenda, by means such as dispatching U.S. troops to the US border with Mexico, offering space at a base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba to detain migrants, and military aircraft for deportation flights.

 

Iran: Tangled nuclear dispute with the West

Iran and the United States are scheduled to hold talks on Saturday on Iran's nuclear program, with US President Donald Trump having threatened military action if they cannot agree a deal. Iran's nuclear program has been the subject of a long dispute between it and Western countries that fear it wants to build an atomic bomb, which Tehran denies. Here is a timeline of the dispute:

1957 - Iran and United States signed a nuclear cooperation deal and the United States delivers a research reactor to Iran a decade later.

1970 - Iran ratified the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), giving it the right to a civilian nuclear program but barring it from seeking an atomic bomb.

1979 - Iran's Islamic revolution upended its ties to major powers, turning former ally the United States into its main foe.

1995 - Russia agreed to finish construction of Iran's planned nuclear power plant at Bushehr, originally started by Germany and shelved after the revolution.

2003 - The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), alleged Iran has not complied with NPT after the revelation it has secretly built a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy water plant for plutonium at Arak.

Both can be used to make fuel for nuclear power but they can also be used in atomic warheads.

Iran accepted European proposals for more transparency in its nuclear program including snap IAEA inspections.

2004 - The IAEA said Iran did not provided the transparency it promised. Iran said it would not suspend uranium enrichment activity.

2005 - Russia offered to supply Iran with fuel for Bushehr to stop it developing its own fuel by making enriched uranium or plutonium.

IAEA said Iran was not in compliance with agreements and EU countries halted negotiations.

2006 - Iran resumed work at Natanz, said in April it had enriched uranium for the first time to about 3.5%, far short of the 90% needed for a warhead.

World powers the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany - later known collectively as the P5+1 offered Iran incentives to halt enrichment.

The United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran over its enrichment.

2009 - Western countries alleged Iran was building another secret uranium enrichment facility under a mountain at Fordow near Qom.

2010 - Iran started making 20% enriched uranium. The UN Security Council expanded sanctions including an embargo on major weapons systems, as the US and EU tighten their own sanctions.

A computer virus - Stuxnet - deployed aimed at paralyzing the Natanz plant, the start of direct operations against Iranian facilities that Tehran blames on Israel.

2011 - Bushehr nuclear plant started operations. Iran said it was using more advanced centrifuges to expand its 20% enrichment program.

2013 - Former nuclear negotiator Hassan Rouhani was elected Iranian president offering new proposals. He and US President Barack Obama hold a first call between leaders of the countries since 1979.

Iran-P5+1 talks in Geneva resulted in a Joint Plan of Action with steps required by both sides including reducing Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, more IAEA access and some sanctions relief.

2014 - Negotiations on a final deal continued through the year, with Iran halting uranium enrichment to 20% and work at Arak and getting access to oil revenue frozen by sanctions.

US allies in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia, repeatedly cautioned Washington against a deal, saying Iran could not be trusted and citing its growing sway in the region.

2015 - Iran and the P5+1 agreed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal that limits Iran's nuclear work, allowing more inspections and a loosening of sanctions.

2016 - IAEA said Iran had met its commitments under the JCPOA, leading to UN sanctions tied to the nuclear program being lifted.

However, Iran's long-range ballistic missile tests prompt unease despite Tehran saying they could not carry nuclear warheads.

2017 - New US President Donald Trump declared the JCPOA was the "worst deal ever" and unilaterally pulled out. Despite Trump promising a better deal there have been no new talks.

2018 - The US reimposed on Iran.

2019 - With ties between Iran and the West deteriorating, a string of attacks on Gulf oil tankers and other regional energy facilities were blamed by the US on Iran.

2020 - A blast rocks Iran's Natanz plant and a nuclear scientist is assassinated near Tehran with Iran blaming both incidents on Israel.

2021 - With Trump out of the White House, the US and Iran resumed indirect talks but there was little progress.

Iran started enriching uranium to 60% - not too far from 90% needed for a bomb.

There were attacks on Iran's Natanz and a centrifuge factory in Karaj.

2022 - The IAEA accused Iran did not answer questions over uranium traces found at more sites. Iran stopped IAEA inspections and installed more new centrifuges at Natanz.

2025 - Trump returns to the White House and declared Iran must agree to a nuclear deal or there will be bombing.

 

Monday, 7 April 2025

Saudi bourse records highest close since December 2024

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) closed 117 points or 1.1% higher at 11,194 points on Monday, the highest close since December 2024. Total turnover was recorded at SR 10.6 billion.

The Saudi stock market, the largest bourse in the Arab world, began trading on Monday with a significant drop of more than 400 points, reaching its lowest level of the day at 10,657 points, before recouping these losses to close in green. The market fell more than 800 points on Sunday.

Monday's upward trend in the Saudi market contrasts with global financial markets, which witnessed significant declines on the day. This was in addition to the third consecutive day of declines in oil prices, due to fears of a global trade war and an economic recession following US tariffs and Chinese counter-tariffs.

Saudi Aramco shares rose one percent to SR25.25 on Monday after suffering huge losses a day ago when its market value fell by more than SR340 billion.

National Education shares topped Monday's gains, rising 9% while ACWA Power shares rose 7% to and Al-Tawuniya shares rose 5% to, following the company's announcement of cash dividends to shareholders. CATRION, Sulaiman Al Habib, Mobily, Yamama Cement, Aldrees, Advanced, and Qassim Cement gained 3% to 6%.

In contrast, SABIC shares fell one percent and BATIC led the declines falling 10 percent.

Other Gulf stock markets also pared the heavy losses they incurred at the start of trading on Monday. The Dubai Financial Market lost 152.46 points at the close, recording a decline of 3.08%. FTSE Abu Dhabi General Index fell 2.59%. The Dubai Financial Market index fell by about 6% in morning trading, bringing its losses to nearly 10% in three trading sessions and 15% since February.




PSX benchmark index down 3.27%

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) plunged by 3,882 points on Monday amid global market turmoil following China’s retaliatory tariffs against the United States. The benchmark KSE-100 index plunged by 3,882.18 points, or 3.27% to 114,909.48 from the previous close of 118,791.66.

Trading was earlier halted at the PSX for an hour after the benchmark index plummeted by 6,000 points triggering the suspension, only to drop another 2,000 points when trading resumed.

The automatic circuit breakers are designed to prevent panic selling and provide investors time to reassess during extreme market volatility.

The benchmark KSE-100 index initially declined by 6,287.22 points, or 5.29% by 11:58am (PST), before trading was halted. Shortly after reopening, it declined by a cumulative 8,687.69, or 7.31%, from the last close to 110,103.97 at 1:15pm.

At 2:02pm, the index was at 113,154.63, down by 5,637.03 points or 4.75%, from the last close.

The previous time that the PSX had seen such a massive slump was on December 19, 2024 when the KSE-100 index shed 4,795.31 points amid rising political noise and missile program-related US sanctions on Pakistani companies.

Awais Ashraf, director research at AKD Securities, attributed the decline to “investors’ fears that tariff hikes could lead to global recession through weaker demand”.

“We believe being an import-led economy … the imposition of US tariffs would benefit us due to possible decline in global commodity prices,” he added.

Mohammed Sohail, chief executive of Topline Securities, also attributed the decline to the global market crash.

He noted that the stock market had halted after falling 5pc to cool down around 12pm.

He said that the oil and gas exploration sector, technology, and textile sector were expected to be affected as they were either linked to global commodity prices or global aggregate demand.

Arif Habib Limited, in a note, said this was a historic day-on-day decline, leading to a market halt.

Yousuf M. Farooq, director research at Chase Securities, said markets were broadly down on fears of a global recession. About the initial decline, he had noted that the index had witnessed a relatively modest drop compared to other regional markets.

He noted that there was notable selling pressure in oil and banking stocks.

“Lower oil prices are expected to negatively impact earnings for oil exploration companies,” he stated, highlighting that at the same time, textile exporters could “face headwinds from new US tariffs”.

“While these tariffs pose short-term risks, particularly for the textile sector, the overall impact of the US trade policy may prove neutral to positive for Pakistan — especially if commodity prices stay low,” he added.

On the government’s role, he stressed that the federal government would have to “move quickly and start negotiations for the removal of tariffs from Pakistani products”.

Sunday, 6 April 2025

Stocks plunge as Trump initiates trade war

Global stocks sunk, a day after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs that are forecast to raise prices and weigh on growth in the United States and around the world, reports the Saudi Gazette.

Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell for a second day, hot on the heels of the S&P 500, which had its worst day since Covid crashed the economy in 2020. Nike, Apple and Target were among big consumer names worst hit, all of them sinking by more than 9%.

At the White House, Trump told reporters the US economy would "boom" thanks to the minimum 10% tariff he plans to slap on global imports in the hope of boosting federal revenues and bringing American manufacturing home.

The Republican president plans to hit products from dozens of other countries with far higher levies, including trade partners such as China and the European Union.

China, which is facing an aggregate 54% tariff, and the EU, which faces duties of 20%, both vowed retaliation on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron called for European firms to suspend planned investment in the United States.

Tariffs are taxes on goods imported from other countries, and Trump's plan that he announced on Wednesday would hike such duties to some of the highest levels in more than 100 years.

In morning trading on Friday, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.7% and Australia's ASX 200 was down by 1.6%. The Kospi in South Korea was flat to slightly lower. Markets in mainland China and Hong Kong were closed for the Qingming Festival.

Earlier on Thursday, the S&P 500 — which tracks 500 of the biggest American firms — plunged 4.8%, shedding roughly US$2 trillion in value. The Dow Jones closed about 4% lower, while the Nasdaq tumbled roughly 6%. The US shares sell-off has been going on since mid-February amid trade war fears.

Britain’s FTSE 100 share index dropped 1.5% and other European markets also fell, echoing declines from Japan to Hong Kong.

On Thursday at the White House, Trump doubled down on a high-stakes gambit aimed at reversing decades of US-led liberalization that shaped the global trade order.

"I think it's going very well," he said. "It was an operation like when a patient gets operated on, and it's a big thing. I said this would exactly be the way it is."

He added, "The markets are going to boom. The stock is going to boom. The country is going to boom."

Contradicting White House aides who insisted the new tariffs were not a negotiating tactic, Trump signalled he might be open to a deal with trade partners "if somebody said we're going to give you something that's so phenomenal".

On Thursday, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said that country would retaliate with a 25% levy on vehicles imported from the US.

Trump last month imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, though he did not announce any new duties on Wednesday against the North American trade partners.

Firms now face a choice of swallowing the tariff cost, working with partners to share that burden, or passing it on to consumers — and risking a drop in sales.

That could have a major impact as US consumer spending amounts to about 10% to 15% of the world economy, according to some estimates.

While stocks fell on Thursday, the price of gold, which is seen as a safer asset in times of turbulence, touched a record high of US$3,167.57 an ounce at one point on Thursday, before falling back.

The dollar also weakened against many other currencies.

In Europe, the tariffs could drag down growth by nearly a percentage point, with a further hit if the bloc retaliates, according to analysts at Principal Asset Management.

In the US, a recession is likely to materialize without other changes, such as big tax cuts, which Trump has also promised, warned Seema Shah, chief global strategist at the firm. She said Trump's goals of boosting manufacturing would be a years-long process "if it happens at all".

"In the meantime, the steep tariffs on imports are likely to be an immediate drag on the economy, with limited short-term benefit," she said.

On Thursday, Stellantis, which makes Jeep, Fiat and other brands, said it was temporarily halting production at a factory in Toluca, Mexico and Windsor, Canada. It said the move, a response to Trump's 25% tax on car imports, would also lead to temporary layoffs of 900 people at five plants in the US that supply those factories.

Nike, which makes much of its sportswear in Asia, was among the hardest hit on the S&P, with shares down 14%. Shares in Apple, which relies heavily on China and Taiwan, tumbled 9%. Other retailers also fell, with Target down roughly 10%.

Motorbike maker Harley-Davidson – which was subject of retaliatory tariffs by the EU during Trump's first term as president – fell 10%.

In Europe, shares in sportswear firm Adidas fell more than 10%, while stocks in rival Puma tumbled more than 9%.

"You're seeing retailers get destroyed right now because tariffs extended to countries we did not expect," said Jay Woods, chief global strategy at Freedom Capital Markets, adding that he expected more turbulence ahead.

Who is responsible for the killing of Gazans?

The question of who is responsible for the killing of Gazans is complex and deeply tied to the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Responsibility depends on the context, perspective, and the specific events being referred to. In this post an attempt is being made to understand the present situation and propose a plausible solution:

Humanitarian perspective:

The Israeli military is often held responsible for a significant number of civilian casualties in Gaza, especially during major military operations. Israel says it targets Hamas and other militant groups, but these operations have resulted in many civilian deaths due to the densely populated nature of Gaza

Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza are also accused for operating from within civilian areas, use human shields, or launch rockets indiscriminately into Israeli territory, provoking retaliatory strikes and contributing to the cycle of violence.

International perspective:

International organizations, like the United Nations and human rights groups ‑ Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch ‑ accuse both Israel and Palestinian armed groups for the lingering conflict resulting in huge loss of human lives, particularly women and children.

Israel often accused of disproportionate use of force and blockade policies that severely impact civilians.

Palestinian groups are condemned for indiscriminate rocket attacks and operating in ways that endanger Israeli civilians.

Structural and political responsibility:

Long-term occupation, blockade, and lack of a viable peace process can be termed as structural causes of repeated violence.

Israel controls most of Gaza’s borders, airspace, and resources, while Hamas governs internally but with limited capacity.

International actors, including the United States, Egypt, Iran, and others, also play roles through military aid, political backing, or indirect support.

Crux of the Matter:

Direct military actions causing deaths are typically attributed to the Israeli military or Palestinian armed groups, depending on perspective of on lookers. Broader responsibility lies with political leaders, ongoing occupation, militant governance, and an international community that has often failed to resolve the underlying issues.

Way Forward:

Israel, now fully supported by US President Donald Trump wants complete cleansing/ exit of Gazans. During the ongoing conflict nearly 100,000 Gazans, mostly women and children have been killed. However, Gazans resolve has sustained are they are not ready to desert their homeland.

The other and more civilized option is creation of two states, Israel and Palestine. Saudi Arabia and many other Muslim countries support this.

United States also initiated Abraham Accords paving way for the recognition of Israel. However, many supporters of this initiative want Israel to go back to its original borders and let the Palestinians manage their own state.

Gaza 'Riviera of the Middle East'

Now the real stumbling block is US President Trump's plan to make Gaza 'Riviera of the Middle East' which requires all the 2.2 million residents to vacate the strip. This vision involved the United States taking control of Gaza, relocating its approximately two million Palestinian residents to neighboring countries, and redeveloping the area into a luxury resort destination. Trump suggested that Gaza's coastal location could make it "better than Monaco" if redeveloped appropriately.

This proposal received strong support from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, who viewed it as a means to disarm Hamas and alter the region's dynamics. However, it faced significant criticism internationally. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres labeled the plan as "ethnic cleansing," emphasizing that forcibly transferring populations violates international law. Arab nations, including Jordan, also rejected the proposal, with Jordan's King Abdullah II expressing firm opposition to the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.

The plan also sparked debate within the United States, with bipartisan concerns about its feasibility and ethical implications. Critics argued that it misread the interests of Arab partners and could destabilize the region further. Facing mounting opposition, President Trump later stated that he would "recommend" but not enforce the plan, indicating a step back from the initial proposal.

 

 

 

 

Saturday, 5 April 2025

Anti-Trump Demonstrations across 50 States

According to the Hill, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators are hitting the streets across the country on Saturday in protest of President Donald Trump and his administration.

The “Hands Off!” rallies are taking place in more than 1,000 cities across all 50 states, and nearly 400,000 people have signed up to attend the protests, according to the progressive organization Indivisible, which is one of the almost 200 groups partnering to organize the event. 

Protesters are demanding an end to billionaire influence and “rampant corruption” in the administration, a stop to Social Security and Medicare cuts, and an end to attacks on trans people, immigrants and other marginalized communities.

Early Saturday morning, on Capitol Hill, the Senate voted to adopt a budget resolution that will kickstart the implementation of Trump’s domestic agenda. The measure passed with a 51-48 vote after the upper chamber worked through the night.

The deal, which still needs to pass the House, has drawn the ire of some House Republicans, with one lawmaker even calling the resolution “unserious and disappointing.” 

This all comes as the economy reels from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on US trading partners after brutal few days for the stock market.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris praised the “Hands Off!” rallies occurring across the country on Saturday.

“Today in every state across our nation, Americans are standing up to the administration as they implement Project 2025 at full speed,” she wrote on the social platform X, referencing the Heritage Foundation’s political playbook.

“The voices of working people will always be louder than the unelected billionaires” she added, thanking demonstrators for speaking out against the Trump administration and its agenda.

Rep. Melanie Stansbury thanked demonstrators across the US for protesting against the Trump administration on Saturday.

“Across the country and back at home, people are coming out to rally and tell Donald Trump and Elon Musk to hand off our healthcare, our veterans, and our democracy,” she wrote on the social platform X

“Thankful to everyone organizing, standing up, and speaking out,” she added.

Rep. Al Green promised to bring forth articles of impeachment against President Trump within the next 30 days on Saturday.

“You don’t deserve the office you hold,” he said at a Washington rally. “You can’t be entrusted with liberty and justice for all. You can’t be entrusted with the government of the people by the people for the people.”

“I’m coming for you,” the Texas Democrat added, donning a shirt reading “censured not silenced.”

Green made headlines earlier this year after he was censured for his protest during Trump’s joint address to Congress in March.

In February, Green signaled he would introduce impeachment efforts over the president’s comments about Gaza.

Rep. Don Beyer railed against President Trump, stating his recent tariffs are “destroying our economy.”

“Donald Trump says he wants to ‘Make America Great Again,’” he said to a crowd in Washington on Saturday. “But he is going to make America the 1930s again.”

“Herbet Hoover gave us the stock market crash of 1929,” Beyer added. “Donald Trump gave us the stock market crash of 2025.”

The Virginia Democrat went on to encourage listeners to take charge against the administration.

“We will be fearless, relentless, angry, smart, and we will be tireless,” he said.

 

Bangladesh and the US tariff storm

US President Donald Trump yesterday stood in the White House Rose Garden, pointing to an oversized placard with details of levies he is set to impose on imports from America’s trading partners. Trump dramatically ratcheted up his trade war. Bangladesh is among those countries whose labor-intensive export industries will receive a heavy blow.

Under Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” policy, Bangladeshi exports to the United States now face a 37% levy — a move that threatens to strain trade with its largest single-country export market.

Trump has targeted nations, accusing them of putting disproportionate barriers to American exports. He imposed 10% universal tariffs on all US trade partners as well as additional, heavier duties on 60 countries he deemed the “worst offenders” of unfair trade practices. The universal tariffs will start on Saturday before the country-specific, higher reciprocal tariff takes effect from April 09. 2025.

The penalties unleashed turbulence across world markets and drew condemnation from many countries facing the end of an era of trade liberalization that has shaped the global order for decades.

While significant for Bangladesh, this move aligns with similarly stringent tariffs across the region, suggesting a broader strategic intent rather than targeting Bangladesh alone.

Notably, Vietnam, a close competitor for Bangladesh in the international garment trade, faces an even higher tariff of 46%, despite the Southeast Asian nation’s proactive attempts to mitigate tariff threats by cutting levies on American goods and pledging to increase imports of significant US products.

However, this offers little comfort to Bangladesh. Its economy, heavily reliant on exports to the United States, particularly garments, now faces headwinds.

“For countries like Bangladesh and other developing countries, this shift poses significant challenges, as they may face tougher economic conditions under such an uncertain regime,” Professor Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling, said.

Industry experts in Dhaka fear the sharp increase in tariffs could erode Bangladesh’s competitive edge, potentially diverting US buyers to other countries. Still, the US will remain Bangladesh’s largest single-country export destination, with apparel constituting about 90% of total exports to American markets.

Bangladesh’s exports to the US rose 1.1%YoY to US$8.4 billion in 2024, driven largely by the country’s dominant garment sector, according to data from the United States Trade Representative.

Bangladesh’s imports from the US totaled US$2.2 billion in 2024, a 1.5% decrease from the previous year. As a result, the US trade deficit with Bangladesh widened to US$6.2 billion — a figure that determined the new tariff rate.

“The immediate priority is damage control, as the reciprocal tariffs are already in effect, with no time allowed for a smooth transition. Even goods currently en route to the US will be subject to the new tariffs, raising the critical question, who will bear the cost?” said Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office.

Bangladesh’s strategy should aim to shift the tariff burden onto buyers, according to Hussain. “A key advantage is that buyers have limited alternatives, as many of our competitors face similar or even higher reciprocal tariffs. However, fierce competition among [local] sellers poses a significant challenge, enabling wholesale buyers like Walmart and Target to pass the tariff costs onto us,” he said.

To counter this, it is crucial for sellers to collectively agree not to accept a reduction in prices to offset the tariff. The relevant association must closely monitor renegotiated prices and enforce penalties for non-compliance with this agreed position, Hussain said.

“Additionally, we should explore the possibility of qualifying our exports for duty exemptions by emphasizing their status as low-priced essential products.”

Analysts point out this escalation is part of broader regional trade realignment, as neighboring India and Pakistan also face reciprocal tariffs of 27% and 29%, respectively.

India’s export competitiveness would be less impacted than that of key rivals due to its position in the middle of the tariff rates, said the country’s industry bodies and the Federation of Indian Export Organizations.

The tariffs would remain in effect until Trump determined that the “threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying non-reciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved, or mitigated,” the White House said.

Courtesy: The Bangladesh Chronicle

 

 

Friday, 4 April 2025

Pakistan: Navigating an Uncertain Global Order

The world is undergoing a profound shift toward protectionism and unpredictability. Global institutions are weakening, long-standing norms are eroding, and power dynamics are replacing cooperative frameworks. In this volatile environment, Pakistan must stay alert and prepare for the challenges ahead.

This transformation is already in motion. US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs signaled a move away from multilateralism. The shift toward unilateralism and economic nationalism has been ushered in. The rules-based global order, which once promoted free trade and transparency, is on the decline.

For decades, the US championed institutions like the WTO, enabling developing countries, including Pakistan, to engage in global trade under shared rules. Now, the rise of "reciprocal tariffs" and deal-making based on narrow self-interest marks a rejection of that system. In such an environment, even close allies are vulnerable.

This shift is especially alarming for countries like Pakistan. Larger powers may use economic tools or coercion to advance their agendas, sidelining smaller economies. A coordinated international backlash to protectionist policies is likely. While Pakistan may avoid retaliation, others might not, raising the specter of a global trade war.

Trade wars have historically led to severe economic disruptions. Pakistan, with low foreign exchange reserves and heavy reliance on institutions like the IMF, lacks the resilience to absorb such shocks. Unlike wealthier nations, it cannot offer major stimulus measures or safety nets.

Thus, Pakistani policymakers must proactively engage with global powers, diversify trade relationships, and strengthen internal governance. Strategic partnerships with like-minded nations and regional initiatives like CPEC are essential, but overreliance on any one partner is risky. A multi-vector foreign policy is key.

Domestically, political stability and unity are crucial. A fragmented leadership weakens Pakistan’s ability to respond to global shifts. The world order we knew is unlikely to return soon. Only countries that are agile, united, and forward-looking will succeed.

Pakistan must not be passive. With vigilance, decisive leadership, and strategic focus, it can navigate this turbulent global landscape and secure a stable future.

US dollar faces crisis of confidence

In times of market panic investors tend to rush to the safety of greenback, but when stocks swooned in response to US tariffs this week, they ran away from it. Investors say it's a sign that the greenback’s global standing may be eroding.

There is perception that greenback has an inherent competitive advantage. It's backed by the world's largest economy, the deepest capital markets and an established rule of law. There is no real alternative in the near term. However, after the trade war initiated by Donald Trump the creation of an alternative currency seems certain.

The dollar, for decades a safe haven, on Thursday fell about 1.7% in its biggest daily drop since November 2022, after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports at levels not seen since the early 1900s. Stock markets also tanked, as tariffs ignited recession worries.

In interviews and published markets commentaries, many investors and analysts pointed to the Trump administration for the anomaly. Its protectionist policies, upending of the global economic order in place since World War II, and a growing US debt pile have been chipping away at the dollar's appeal, they say. Left unchecked, a crisis of confidence in the dollar could also undermine its position as the world's reserve currency, they added.

"What we're seeing today is a further indication that the structure and nature of the US dollar’s relationship to global markets has changed," said Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie in New York.

"There's an underlying basis for this, which is the changing role of the US in the world."

Any erosion of the dollar's standing as a safe-haven is bad news for investors and policymakers - at least in the near term.

For investors, who have piled trillions of dollars into buoyant US markets in recent decades, a sharp dollar fall could result in higher interest rates for longer. That's because price pressures at home could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

A rapid strengthening of currencies against the dollar is a headache for other central banks navigating a weaker economic outlook, as it makes their exports more expensive and potentially harder for them to revive growth. The euro, for example, just had its best day against the greenback in more than two years.

The recent depreciation in the dollar showed that concerns about the currency's status had "left footprints in financial markets already," Sweden's central bank deputy governor Per Jansson said at an event in London on Tuesday.

"If the dollar's status would change, that would be a big change for the world economy ... and would basically create a mess," he told Reuters afterwards. "I really do not hope the US goes there."