US still trading with Iran despite sanctions

According to the data released by the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), the value of trade between Iran and the United States has reached US$69.594 million since the beginning of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21, 2021) up to late January 2022.

As ILNA reported, during the mentioned period Iran exported US$248,000 worth of commodities to the US, while the value of imports from the country was reported at US$69.345 million.

The value of trade between the two countries increased 18% as compared to the figures for the previous year. The value of exports to the US increased 253% as compared to the previous year, when exports were reported at US$136,000.

The imports, however, decreased by 17% compared to the figure for the previous year during which Iran imported US$79.836 million worth of commodities from the US, the US ranked 23rd among the top exporters to the Islamic Republic.

The value of Iran’s non-oil exports rose 38% during the first 10 months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21, 2021-January 20, 2022), as compared to the same period of time in the past year, according to IRICA Head Alireza Moghadasi.

Iran exported over 100 million tons of non-oil products worth US$38.763 billion in the mentioned period, the official said.

According to Moghadasi, the weight of exports in the mentioned period also grew by seven percent in comparison to the figure for the previous fiscal year’s same 10 months.

He said major export destinations of the Iranian non-oil goods were China, Iraq, and Turkey during the said 10 months.

The IRICA head further announced that the Islamic Republic imported 33 million tons of non-oil commodities worth US$41.473 billion in the mentioned period, a 34% growth in value and a 17$ rise in weight, year on year.

The United Arab Emirates was the top exporter to Iran during the period under reiew, followed by China, Turkey, Germany, and Switzerland, he stated.

Bickering over hiring lobbyist firms in Bangladesh

Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen today said that the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami had appointed eight lobbyist firms so that the US stops providing aid and development assistance to Bangladesh.

While delivering his statement in the parliament, Momen said that the government has also proof that BNP, through appointing lobbyists, was involved in imposing US sanctions on Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and appealed to the United Nations Department of Peace Operations to ban the force from UN deployment.

The foreign minister came up with the statement following Jatiya Party and BNP lawmaker’s Sunday’s demand in parliament on the much-talked issue of appointing lobbyists by the BNP and the government. In his statement, Momen said, BNP-appointed lobbyists have provided such statements against Bangladesh that would offend the people of the country.

“BNP has told them (the US) that the security of the USA will be hindered due to Bangladesh.

The minister raised questions about the source of huge money that BNP had spent to pay those lobbyist firms, and demanded an investigation into how that money was sent abroad.

There might be differences of opinion between the government and the BNP, but the country cannot be harmed like that, he added.

The foreign minister also said hiring lobbyists in the US is a legal process under the US law. India, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other countries and organizations around the world appoint lobbyists to improve political and economic relations, he added.

Jamaat hired a firm to stop the trial of war criminals in 2014. For this they paid US$150,000. They hired another lobbyist firm to stop the trial proceedings.

He said the BNP had spent US$120,000 each month as retainer fee and US$2.7 million each year from February 2015 to April 2017.

Momen said the BNP had hired four lobbyist firms till 2017 and one in 2019, and to prevent the trial of war criminals, BNP-Jamaat appointed three lobbyist firms.

The foreign minister said that none of the BNP workers in the grassroots would want Bangladesh’s trade and commerce to shut. Some of their top-level leaders have done such things without informing them. Also, some BNP members had written to the UN secretary general to declare Bangladesh’s parliament illegal, he added.

Stating that lifting of sanctions against the RAB will take time, Momen said that the United States would lift its sanctions on the RAB if accurate information is provided to them.

Commenting that the government is working on the US sanctions against the RAB, the foreign minister said that the work on partnership dialogue with the United States will start next month. “There will be a security dialogue in April.”

Indicating that it would take some time to lift the embargo, the foreign minister said, “We have held several meetings with the USA. Insha Allah, whenever we will be able to provide the information to them properly, I believe the sanction will be withdrawn from a very good organization like RAB.”

The minister added, “But the process will not start tomorrow. It will take time. We have to be patient.”

The minister in his statement said, the government had not hired lobbyists, rather it has hired a PR firm.

“The government didn’t hire any such body who engaged in lobbying the Senate and the State Department,” he said, adding, “What the government did was to stop the spreading of propaganda against the country, and to spread the real information to counter the false information.”

He said an organization called BGR was appointed in 2014-15. The BGR was appointed to stop the anti-Bangladesh campaign.

 

Trade between Iran and Russia likely to touch new record

The trade turnover between Russia and Iran is likely to reach record-breaking US$4 billion as of 2021 year-end, Russian Trade Representative in Iran Rustam Zhiganshin told TASS.

"The turnover surged by 89.4% during the first eleven months against the like period of the last year and stood at US$3.76 billion. Grounds are in place to expect we will reach the record-high figure of US$4 billion as of 2021 year-end," the trade representative said.

"Agricultural produce account for about 80% in the trade turnover between the countries," Zhiganshin said. "Grains and oil-bearing crops moved up in our export in the first instance," he said. "Export of vaccines can be noted among new positions - our relevant supplies to Iran totaled US$45 million," he said.

"Implementation of certain projects in the energy sphere is underway, which became more active in 2021. This backed the turnover growth over the last year," Zhiganshin noted. "Vegetables, fruits, dried fruits and nuts are imported from Iran in the first instance," he said.

Also, the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) announced last week that the value of trade between Iran and Russia rose 41% in the first nine months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-December 21, 2021), as compared to the same period of time in the past year.

Head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) Alireza Peyman Pak has stressed the need for establishing export consortia between Iran and Russia for accelerating mutual trade under the framework of the agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Peyman Pak made the remarks in a meeting with the Russian Ambassador to Tehran Levan Dzhagaryan Back in November 2021.

In this meeting, major Russian companies were introduced to the Iranian side to cooperate in various sectors including production, trade, and export, while the issue of extraterrestrial cultivation and establishing joint plants for food processing were also discussed.

The need for cooperation between the two countries to facilitate the transit of goods and the removal of customs barriers by the Russian side as well as facilitating the issuance of visas to traders and drivers were also among the issues discussed in the meeting.

Joe Biden must put house in order before taking action against Russia

The alarms are growing louder about the Ukraine crisis — and questions are becoming sharper as to how the issue will reverberate through domestic politics of United States. It is feared that a full-scale invasion of Russia would pitch the US President Joe Biden into new turmoil. 

The failure to prevent such a move would be regarded as a diplomatic failure by the White House. It would be another foreign policy misstep to add to the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.

But Republicans are divided on Ukraine, with some the most pro-Trump elements of the GOP voicing isolationist sentiments. Their views complicate the GOP’s traditional hawkish image.

Biden has ruled out involving US troops directly in a ground war in Ukraine, even in the event of a Russian invasion. He faces the challenge of keeping NATO allies on the same page if Russian President Vladimir Putin mounts some kind of aggressive operation that stops short of a traditional, full-scale military assault.

In alluding to this conundrum at a recent press conference, Biden appeared to suggest that Putin could get away with a “minor incursion” — a statement that infuriated the Ukrainians, and which the White House tried to clean up, with limited success.

At a Pentagon briefing on Friday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Putin had assembled all he needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Russians are now estimated to have more than 100,000 troops adjacent to the border.

Milley told reporters that “you’d have to go back quite a while to the Cold War days to see something of this magnitude.”

The comment echoed Biden’s remark last week that a Russian invasion would “change the world” and would, in practical terms, be “the largest invasion since World War Two.”

But one pressing political question is whether Biden will play a political price at home for a failure of diplomacy if Putin presses ahead.

Robert Wilkie, a former Secretary of Veterans Affairs and, before that, an Under Secretary of Defense during the Trump administration, faulted the Biden administration, saying, “we haven’t been playing the long game while Putin has.”

Wilkie, who was also Assistant Secretary of Defense under President George W. Bush and is now a visiting fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, argued that there were longer-term moves the administration could make to constrain Putin, such as “opening up an avenue for Finland and Sweden to come into the NATO family” to help change the overall dynamic in Europe.

But he also noted there were real difficulties, not least Russia’s increasing closeness with China, which he argued made sanctions less likely to be effective. 

“Unlike in the past, Putin has a banker now — and that’s Beijing,” he said.

Liberal voices are of course more supportive of Biden’s position, arguing that he has played his hand as well as he could, including making clear to Putin that there will be severe consequences for an invasion.

“The US does have a number of tools that it can use that would be really painful for the Kremlin and potentially catastrophic for Russia overall,” said Max Bergmann, a senior fellow and the Director for Europe and Russia at the liberal Center for American Progress.

Bergmann added, “We should not think of this as a way to find a silver bullet that will cause Vladimir Putin to not invade or to say ‘uncle.’” He argued Putin had painted himself into a corner with his troop build-up and would have to go ahead with some form of action at risk of losing face.

Russia denies it has any intention of invading Ukraine, assurances that are dismissed in Washington because of the troop movements. The Kremlin wants a formal commitment that Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, will never be allowed to join the alliance. But that kind of guarantee is a non-starter with the US and other western nations.

Paul Gosar has contended, “We have no dog in the Ukraine fight.” A recent story from Axios noted the influence of Fox News broadcaster Tucker Carlson, who has been openly skeptical about the need for the US to get involved on Ukraine’s side. The website also noted a number of GOP candidates who have sounded similar themes.

Those positions sit very uneasily with the GOP’s traditional hawkish image. They also draw scorn from liberal foreign policy experts, who accuse Trump Republicans of giving comfort to an adversary.

“Protest is fine, disagreement on policy is fine, but active support for Putin’s expansionist policies, including the potential invasion of another democracy, give confidence to Putin that he has effectively undermined the American president at home,” said Joel Rubin, a former deputy assistant secretary of State during the Obama administration.

Some polling shows the peculiar contours of US public opinion in relation to Ukraine. An Economist/YouGov poll released lately, for example, indicated more Republican voters than Democratic voters consider Putin a “strong leader.” 

Asked whether it was more important for Washington to “take a strong stand” on Ukraine or “maintain good relations with Russia,” voters of both parties went for the first option. But Republicans did so by a slimmer net margin than their Democratic counterparts.

There is, too, the fact that American voters have a raft of other, more immediate topics to worry about, with COVID-19 and inflation prime among them.

That could mean that another blow to American prestige in the shape of a Russian invasion would hurt Biden anew. Or, it could mean that US voters simply don’t care all that much what happens in Kyiv.

Right now, it’s waiting game that is becoming tenser by the day. The most likely time for a Russian invasion is in the next few weeks, as the ground freezes and makes troop movements easier.

 “I think [Putin] is going to do it,” said Bergmann. “Once you put this in motion, it can be hard to unwind it without losing face and credibility…He could just leave forces where they are. But, yeah, I would be nervous.”

Hamas commander accused of spying for Israel escapes from Gaza prison

According to a report by The Jerusalem Post, a former commander of Hamas military wing who was accused of spying for Israel has escaped from a maximum security prison in the Gaza Strip. The fugitive, Abed al-Karim Abu Odeh, 35, was arrested by Hamas in 2019 on suspicion of mapping underground tunnels with a tracking device he allegedly received from his Israeli accomplice.  

It was not clear how Abu Odeh, who was being held in the Ansar Prison in the Gaza Strip, managed to escape. The rare escape is seen by many Palestinians as a serious embarrassment for Hamas.

Hamas has arrested a number of suspects on suspicion of helping Abu Odeh according to a Palestinian journalist in the Gaza Strip.

Hamas officials described Abu Odeh as an extremely dangerous security prisoner and offered a reward for information leading to his capture.

The officials said they did not rule out the possibility that Abu Odeh, who was a top commander of the Hamas military wing, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, would try to cross the border into Israel.

Hamas set up checkpoints and deployed dozens of security officers in several parts of the Gaza Strip, especially near the border with Israel, in an attempt to prevent Abu Odeh from leaving the coastal enclave.

Hamas also issued a warning to fishermen in the Gaza Strip against helping Abu Odeh.

Eyad al-Bozm, spokesperson for the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Interior, said that Abu Odeh escaped from prison on Saturday morning. “The Hamas security forces are taking measures to re-apprehend him,” he added without elaborating.

On Saturday night, Hamas security officers raided the home of Abu Odeh and arrested a number of his family members, according to sources in the Gaza Strip.

Bennett and Iran animosity

Naftali Bennett, Prime Minister of Israel, has said that the theory of “killing Iran with 1000 knife wounds is similar to what happened to the former Soviet Union”. Doesn’t he sound delusional?

In an interview with the Israeli Ynet daily, Bennett said, “… but Iran itself, which is the root of evil, is safe. Here is a cold war going on, we are changing this equation, we are trying to weaken Iran in all dimensions economically, socially and security-wise. We act more and do not give up.”

The notion of comparing Iran to the Soviet Union, and the current status of the Islamic Republic with the 1985-1989 of the Soviet Union shows how far Bennett is from the ground reality.

What is going on in Tehran is that the country is by no means isolated. The Belt and Road Initiative put forward by China and Iran’s active participation in the initiative, 25-year Iran-China cooperation document, the soon-to-be-signed 20-year cooperation document with Russia, and so many more examples clarify Iran’s position as a regional and even trans-regional power. 

In some rather insulting remarks, the Israeli prime minister said, “I look at Iran as an ongoing campaign. Iran has been an octopus for decades, its arms encircling the falcons in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and the falcons fall into its trap and bleed. We have dramatically increased the range of attacks as well as the type of attacks and the quality of the targets. This creates a problem for Iran.”

The delusional Bennett seems to have forgotten how its Iron Dumb was penetrated in the 12-day war against Gaza. The fact that Bennett thinks he has created problems for Iran is a true reflection of a pathological liar who wants to mend his reputation after only seven months in office. 

In response to a question about “a thousand knife wounds” strategy that the Tel Aviv regime dreams of implementing, Bennett said, “A thousand blows is not like that.

Remember the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union? Did the Americans attack the Russians? No, but they were able to crush them wisely.”

He continued, “We must act without interruption until they leave here. What are you doing here? What do you think you are doing In Syria? What do you think you are doing at our borders?”

Someone needs to ask Bennett the same questions. What is Israel doing in West Asia? Where is this regime’s status in the economic, political and sociological equations of the region? 

The regime with a dark history of trespassing, colonizing and occupying other people’s lands is in no place to talk about a rich civilization like Iran who has been present in the region for more than 2500 years. 

Regardless of the fact that Israel is not able to confront Iran at all, Bennett seemingly has taken some time off of repairing an Iron Dome full of holes. 

Struggling with a cyberspace that is full of holes, leaks of the military forces with their ID numbers on the internet, a war minister with a housekeeper who turned out to be a spy and so many other crises in only seven months, Bennett can’t keep quiet, and seems to be giving interviews which are full of lies. 

US creating hype to justify action against Russia

The Pentagon on Friday called on Russia to stand down on Ukraine as tensions rise over the threat of a Russian military invasion. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a briefing with reporters said Moscow has for months been deploying forces along Ukraine’s border at a “consistent and steady pace,” which has been supported by Russian naval activity in the northern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. 

“We don't believe that President Putin has made a final decision to use these forces against Ukraine,” Austin said. “He clearly now has that capability.”  

Russia has amassed at least 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, and the United States has warned in recent weeks that Putin could attack at any moment. President Biden has warned Putin that such an attack would be met with severe economic consequences for Moscow. 

The Kremlin has denied any intention of seeking to invade Ukraine, but weeks of diplomatic dialogue aimed at diffusing the conflict has largely proven unsuccessful. As diplomatic talks continue, NATO has moved to bolster its security forces along the eastern flank, as Ukraine shares borders with four alliance members. 

Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stressed that there was no reason for armed conflict.

“It's the policy of the United States government to continue to support an independent Ukraine and their goals. And we are continuing our efforts to enhance their ability to protect themselves,” Milley said. 

“We strongly encourage Russia to stand down and to pursue a resolution through diplomacy,” he continued. “Armed force should always be the last resort. Success here is through dialogue.” 

The US has called for a meeting of the United Nations Security Council to address Russia’s behavior and the build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border. 

A senior administration official on Friday told reporters the US wants to get UN members on the record.

“It basically boils down to the question of whether there should be a path of war, or whether there should be a path of diplomacy,” the official told reporters in a briefing.

“I think the expectation is that members of the Security Council will be weighing in on this question and supportive of a diplomatic approach.”

The official said that no concrete measures or a joint statement are expected to come out of the council meeting. Russia, as one of five permanent members of the council, holds power to veto such measures in the council. The other permanent members are United States, France, United Kingdom and China.

As US lawmakers scramble to iron out a sanctions package against Russia ahead of a potential invasion, the head of Ukraine’s parliament sent a letter to several US senators outlining specific demands for what those sanctions should look like. 

Ruslan Stefanchuk, chairman of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada legislature, thanked the senators for supporting Ukraine, and stressed the importance of already adopted laws to support Ukraine in combating Russian aggression, according to a statement from the parliament.

According to Axios, which first obtained the letter, the request was sent to Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, Robert Menendez and James Risch, the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations panel. The letter was also sent to Rob Portman, Jeanne Shaheen, Chris Murphy, John Cornyn, Lindsey Graham and Ben Cardin.  

The senators have lately taken part in a meeting over Zoom to try to figure out the details for legislation on sanctioning Russia. 

Poor becoming poorer in India

In India taxation policy is pro-rich, depriving the poor majority of even the basics to improve their lives. The poor became poorer, while the rich got richer in India during 2021, says a survey by Oxfam International.

Indian billionaires increased their wealth by 39% in 2021 and are getting richer at a much faster pace, but the poor saw their annual income drop by 53% and are still struggling to earn a minimum wage and access quality education and health care, the report revealed.

Titled “Inequality Kills: India Supplement 2022,” the report said that the richest 98 Indians own the same wealth as the bottom 555 million people.

Donate to UCA News with a small contribution of your choice Indian billionaires grew from 102 in 2020 to 142 in 2021 even though the country witnessed yet another year of pandemic.

 This was also the year when the share of the bottom 50% of the population in national wealth was a mere 6%. The combined wealth of the richest 100 Indians on the Forbes list stands at more than half a trillion US dollars. There were only three women among the 100 richest Indians.

India had the third-highest number of billionaires in the world, just behind China and the United States. It now has more billionaires than France, Sweden and Switzerland combined.

In 2020, India’s top 10% held close to 45% of the country’s national wealth. The Oxfam report once again confirmed that while India is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, it is also one of the most unequal countries with inequality continuing to rise sharply for the last three decades.

Since 2015, more and more of India’s wealth has gone to its richest one percent. Globally, too, wealth increased during 2021 to make the world’s billionaire elite richer when common people struggled against the pandemic for the second consecutive year.

“The massive gap between rich and poor will continue to increase to unimaginable proportions if the elected representatives of people in parliament do not take their job seriously,” said A.C. Michael, convener of the United Christian Forum.

This deliberate inequality was bound to continue, said Michael, a former member of Delhi Minorities Commission. “Sadly, they, elected representatives, are more busy dividing people on the basis of religion for their political gains instead of addressing the more pressing issues that could better the lives of people,” he added.

Professor Himanshu Jain of Jawaharlal Nehru University said what is particularly worrying in India’s case is that “economic inequality is being added to a society that is already fractured along the lines of caste, religion, region and gender.”

This surge in the wealth of the country’s top 100 billionaires comes at a time when India’s unemployment rate was as high as 15% in urban areas and the healthcare system was on the brink of collapse.

Unfortunately, not only has the taxation policy been pro-rich but it has also deprived India’s states of important fiscal resources — both particularly damaging in the context of the Covid-19 crisis.

The pandemic revealed how dependent Indian states are on the federal government for technical expertise and financial support despite a federal structure supported by India’s constitution.

In spite of health being a state subject, the state continued to retain more resources in non-divisible pools rather than devolving them to manage the pandemic.

The Oxfam report recommended that the government revisit its primary sources of revenue generation, adopting more progressive methods of taxation and assessing its structural issues that permit such wealth accumulation by the rich.

Additionally, the government should also redirect revenue towards health, education and social security, treating them as universal rights and as a means of reducing inequality, thereby avoiding the privatization model for these sectors.

Oxfam also called on the government to recognize the unequal lives that Indian citizens live by measuring them and legislating to protect their interests.

Courtesy: South Asia Journal

Tehran-Baku ink MoU for constructing bridge over Astarachay River

Iran and Azerbaijan have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for cooperation in constructing a bridge over the Astarachay River. The MoU was signed by Iranian Deputy Transport and Urban Development Minister Kheirollah Khademi and Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of Digital Development and Transport Rahman Hummatov in Baku.

As reported by IRNA, the project for the construction of the mentioned bridge was commenced in a ceremony attended by Iranian Transport Minister Rostam Qasemi and Azeri Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev.

Qasemi, who is also the head of the two countries’ Joint Economic Committee, traveled to Azerbaijan with a delegatio to visit the country’s economic areas and explore avenues of mutual cooperation.

Iran and Azerbaijan had earlier announced the total investment made in the project to be 4.7 million euros.

The construction of Astarachay Bridge is going to be a positive step in completing the North-South Corridor and is expected to open a new gate for the development of all-out relations between the two neighbors.

Speaking at the ceremony, Mustafayev said the construction of the bridge is scheduled to be completed by the end of the current year.

"The president and the government of the Republic of Azerbaijan attach special importance to the development of relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the presidents of Iran and Azerbaijan expressed interest in further developing relations between the two countries in a cordial meeting in Ashgabat," the official said.

Azerbaijan and Iran have established deep relations in various areas including trade, economy, energy, customs, and investment, he said: "There are good opportunities between the two countries to implement joint projects in these fields."

Mustafayev further mentioned the upward trend of trade between the two countries and said, “Despite the Coronavirus pandemic in the last two years, the trade turnover of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the first 11 months of 2021 increased by 30% as compared to the previous year and the amount of road transport also increased by 62.5%.”

“During this period, the transportation and transit of goods between the two countries have not stopped for a single day,” he stressed.

Qasemi for his part called Azerbaijan the closest neighbor to Iran and said, "We hope that after the meeting of the presidents of the two countries, relations between the two nations will develop as much as possible."

He pointed to the development of relations with neighbors as one of the priorities of the Iranian government and, referring to Iran's participation in the implementation of projects in Azerbaijan’s liberated territories in Karabakh, said, "Cooperation between the two countries in this area can accelerate the reconstruction of these regions.”

Qasemi noted that the development of transport and transit in the region is in the interest of both countries, and said that the two countries’ Joint Economic Committee could help deepen economic relations between them, as well as provide the necessary facilities for businessmen and entrepreneurs.

Khademi termed the construction of the Astarachay Bridge as an effective step in completing the north-south corridor and said, "The construction of this bridge will lead to economic, tourism, industrial and transportation development of the two countries due to the cultural, social and religious commonalities of the two neighboring countries."

“The Astarachay border bridge will lead to the development of transit trade between the two countries, which, in parallel with the existing railway bridge, will lead to the comprehensive development of the region,” he said.

Crisis in Belarus and role being played by Russia, European Union and United States

After the presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, mass demonstrations broke out spontaneously throughout the country. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets protesting against widespread election fraud. 

These protests soon met with sustained, brutal suppression. The masses were eventually driven from the streets, yet the resistance against the Belarusian dictatorship persists to this day.

It is clear that Alyaksandr Lukashenka lost the popular legitimacy he had enjoyed for many, if not most, of the last 26 years. Why did this Belarusian revolution fail to succeed? The responses of Russia, the European Union, and the United States to the 2020–21 protest movement had a decisive impact on the pro-democracy uprising in Belarus and will continue to be crucial for how the situation in Belarus unfolds in the future.

The 2020–21 Belarusian protest movement to date can be divided into three main phases: violent repressions; temporary cease-fire; and regime retaliation. The next phase of the Belarusian crisis will be one of power transition. This transition will likely happen after the constitutional referendum scheduled for February 27, 2022. The current draft of the new Belarusian constitution proposes several crucial changes for the political system in Belarus.

First, the amendments aim to weaken the powers of the Belarusian parliament and to strengthen the role of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly (ABPA). This body which under the present constitution does not have governing status would be endowed with wide-ranging powers and would consist of 1,200 delegates loyal to the regime. The ABPA would have the power to approve Belarus’s foreign and security policy, propose changes to the constitution, draft laws, select judges of the top courts, and have other functions. The acting president would automatically become a member of the ABPA and potentially serve as its chair, if elected by the other delegates. By strengthening the powers of the ABPA, Lukashenka is trying to create an alternative center of power which would allow him to stay in the Belarusian political arena even if he decides to step down as a president.

Second, the constitutional amendments envisage the president’s immunity from prosecution and prohibit anyone who temporarily left the country in the last 20 years from running for presidency. This provision directly targets members of Belarusian political opposition who were forced to live into exile to avoid repressions. This amendment deprives the Belarusian opposition of the opportunity to challenge the ruling regime directly inside Belarus, and provides additional guarantees for the safety of Lukashenka and his entourage. 

Finally, the new constitutional provisions also grant the president immunity from prosecution and introduce a limit of two five-year presidential terms in office. However, since these restrictions would only apply going forward, Lukashenka could potentially stay in power until 2035.

Lukashenka has not yet declared whether he will step down after the referendum. The current political instability in the region, including the January protests in Kazakhstan and the escalating tensions between Russian and Ukraine, increase the chances that Lukashenka will stay in power after the referendum.

In either case, the West will not cease pressure on the Belarusian regime and will continue to support those fighting for democratic reforms there. For its part, Russia will continue to use the vulnerability of Lukashenka and his close entourage to increase its political, economic, and military presence in Belarus.

Russia, the EU and the US have all played an important role in the evolution of the 2020–21 Belarusian post-electoral crises. The Belarusian mass protests failed to succeed in August 2020, thanks both to Russia’s significant support of the Lukashenka regime and a lack of quick and comprehensive response from the EU and the US.

However, the Ryanair incident in May 2021 catalyzed increased Western action against the Lukashenka regime. It resulted in greater coordination between the EU and the US and led to the passage of several packages of targeted sanctions. Hard sanctions are likely to continue to serve as the baseline policy towards the Lukashenka regime in the near future for the EU and the US, while Russia will likely continue exerting its influence in pursuit of greater political, economic, and military integration with Belarus.  Lukashenka’s regime has a potential to maintain political control in the country in the short-term perspective. However, in the long run it will have to face the irreversible transformations happening in the Belarusian society and step on a path of political transition.

US confronts a pair of ruthless dictatorships

I am inclined to share with my readers an article by Newt Gingrich, warning that the United States is confronting a pair of ruthless dictatorships in two potential collisions that could change history and leave the super power at enormous risk.

The news media focus is currently on Vladimir Putin and his threat to occupy part or all of Ukraine. Everyone recognizes that President Joe Biden made a dangerous mistake in his two-hour press conference when he said “a minor incursion” by Russia into Ukraine might be acceptable. His administration was trying to reverse that comment as soon as the press conference ended and spent the next two days trying to reassure everyone—including our allies—that Biden did not mean what he clearly said.

Of course, the Biden threat that there would be “severe sanctions” if Russia invaded Ukraine probably has no effect on Putin. First, when he seized all of Crimea the Obama-Biden administration threatened severe sanctions and nothing seemed to hurt Russia much. Second, at a time when Biden’s war on American energy has raised the price of oil and forced him to beg Russia and Saudi Arabia increase production to lower the price, Putin must be reveling in the absurdity of Biden’s words versus Biden’s actions.

Oil is the biggest source of foreign income for Russia. Every US$/barrel increase is a windfall Putin can spend on the Russian military and foreign adventures. In October 2020, with President Donald Trump’s energy independence policy, the price of crude was US$39.90/barrel. Today, with Biden’s anti-American energy policy, the price of crude has jumped to US$85.43/barrel.

Despite Biden’s strong words about sanctions, the effect of his policies has been a US$45.53/barrel increase in profit (114.11%) for Putin to pay off his oligarchs, buy better military equipment, and engage in foreign adventures. Any supposed sanctions Biden imposed would have to overcome this windfall—and then go much deeper—for Putin to even feel it.

Far from being intimidated, the Russians have announced that they will be holding military maneuvers off Ireland. That country has complained and said they don’t want Russian warships in their neighborhood. Since Ireland is not a member of NATO, and its own forces are totally inadequate for dealing with Russia, NATO would have to get involved if there was a serious incident.

While Putin is keeping everyone focused on Ukraine, Xi Jinping is busy putting pressure on Taiwan. Last Sunday, the Chinese Communists flew 39 aircraft—including a nuclear bomber—near Taiwan.

The simple fact is Putin and Xi sense real weakness in the American commander in chief. They sense that American confusion and weakness is an enormous opportunity.

While Biden has a difficult time communicating with his allies—and has had no impact on Germany which is now choosing Russian natural gas over NATO—Putin and Xi are talking regularly and coordinating activities.

The American system was built for a strong commander in chief. Gen. George Washington spent eight years fighting the British to establish independence of United States. When he became President of the Constitutional Convention, his influence was decisive. Washington knew from his own experience that American survival in a dangerous world required a commander in chief—not a legislator in chief, not a speechmaker in chief, not a cheerful conciliator in chief. The American presidency only works with a strong, competent, commander in chief. Currently United States does not have one. Biden is incapable of filling Washington’s shoes.

He has referred to a movie, “Munich: The Edge of War.” It is a clever treatment of the Munich meeting between Adolf Hitler and British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in which Chamberlain gave away Czechoslovakia in order to buy what he called “peace for the time.”

Before Munich, in a radio broadcast to the British people, Chamberlain had described the German-Czechoslovakian crisis as “a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.”

On learning that Chamberlain had sold out the free country of Czechoslovakia—leaving it defenseless against the German dictatorship—Winston Churchill warned: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.”

He draws the conclusion, “Weakness when facing dictators is always dangerous. The situations in Ukraine and Taiwan are both dangerous. The US commander in chief appears incapable of meeting the dual challenge”.

 

OPEC plus likely to stick to planned March output increase

OPEC plus is likely to stick with a planned increase in its oil output target for March 2022 when it meets on Wednesday next week. Several sources from the producer group said, as it sees demand recovering despite downside risks from the pandemic and looming interest rate rises.

While two OPEC plus sources said oil at a seven-year high close to US$90 a barrel might prompt the group to consider further steps, the vast majority of sources said no new decision was expected at the February 02, 2022 online meeting.

One Russian source told Reuters the country was concerned the price rally might revive a boom in US shale production.

"OPEC plus countries should be on high alert with this price level given the bullish forecasts for shale oil production in 2022," the source said.

The source added that high oil prices were also hurting profit margins of Russian refineries.

OPEC plus, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies, has raised its output target each month since August by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it unwinds record production cuts made in 2020.

Current plans would see OPEC plus do so again in March.

"We are very likely to go for another 400,000 barrels per day," one of the OPEC+ sources said. "There are no reasons against it."

OPEC plus has resisted pressure from the United States since last year to raise supplies more quickly.

Despite its increased targets, actual output from OPEC plus has not kept pace as some members struggle with capacity constraints, and this has been a factor underpinning prices.

OPEC plus missed its production target by 790,000 bpd in December 2021 as members such as Nigeria and Angola struggled to raise output, the International Energy Agency said.

Several banks and analysts including Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, expect oil prices to top US$100/barrel later in the year 2022 amid tight OPEC plus spare capacity and strong demand.

Some OPEC plus sources believe that the recent price rally is driven more by geopolitical tensions than fundamentals.

"With Russian-Ukrainian tension one could expect that, but [it is] not a supply issue for sure," one of the sources said about prospects for US$100 oil.

US succeeds in selling Bradley fighting vehicles to Croatia

According to a report, Croatia will buy 89 US Bradley fighting vehicles as part of a plan to form an infantry brigade to aid NATO, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic announced Wednesday. 

Croatia will receive 62 fully equipped and armed versions of the armored vehicles plus another 22 for reserve parts and five for training in a US$196 million deal, Plenkovic announced on Twitter. 

As part of the agreement, Croatia will pay slightly more than US$145 million while the United States will cover US$51 million. 

“This is a confirmation of good cooperation and I believe that in this way, we have added another piece to the mosaic of our cooperation,” Plenkovic told reporters, according to The Associated Press. “The Croatian army will achieve a new level of quality.” 

Croatia, which has been negotiating the vehicle deal since 2017, currently uses Bradley models from as far back as Operation Desert Storm in the early 1990s and wants to upgrade the machine guns, missiles, radios and armor, among other parts.  

Plenkovic said the new vehicles will begin arriving in 2023. 

A member of NATO, Croatia looks to bolster its military equipment to keep up with its neighbor and Russian ally Serbia. The country also must contend with an increasingly aggressive Kremlin, though its president said Tuesday that it would not be sending troops if tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate. 

 

Netherlands cancels €2.2 million contract with Palestinian NGO

Reportedly, the Netherlands has canceled a €2.2 million contract with the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC) over ties to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, according to a report by NGO Monitor.

The Netherlands announced that it would cancel its contract with the Palestinian NGO on January 5, 2022 amid an internal review that revealed 34 officials and board members who worked at UAWC in 2007-2020 had ties to the PFLP – some of whom held leadership positions and were responsible for vicious terror attacks, such as the 2019 murder of 17-year-old Rina Shnerb.

NGO Monitor, itself a non-governmental organization that analyzes International NGO's reception and potential bias toward Israel, originally alerted the Dutch government about the affiliation of many UAWC employees and board members to the PFLP in 2018 and have remained in communication since.

As a result of the investigation and subsequent cancellation of the contract's funding, NGO Watch estimates that the Netherlands government has cut €2.2 million worth of support to the UAWC.

Following the announcement, NGO Monitor sent letters to the governments of Switzerland, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and the European Union urging them to also freeze all ongoing or future funding to UAWC and other PFLP-linked NGO's.

 

Ukrainians prepare for war with Russia as military aid arrives

Ukraine is getting ready for war after the United States sent a plane carrying military equipment and munitions to the capital, Kyiv. The third shipment of a US$200 million security package is intended to help Ukraine amid the looming threat of a Russian military incursion.

“Our partners are increasing the amount of military assistance, and today we are meeting the third aircraft from the United States government as part of this assistance,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told reporters before the plane landed.

Ukraine Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said the country was more organized today than in 2014, the last time Russia invaded it.

“We didn’t have the army then as it is now,” she said. “We didn’t know what Russian aggression looked like. We were thinking that a full-fledged war would take place in our territory, so we were preparing for the massive protection of our territorial integrity without the resources for it.”

After eight years of Ukraine fighting “Russian aggression,” the country had “military resilience as well as a resilience to hybrid threats,” Stefanishyna said.

Ukraine would be ready for all scenarios, she said, adding that the two main scenarios were a military invasion or a continued escalation without an invasion, which would be damaging to the Ukrainian economy, she said.

Ukraine would need “a package of economic assistance” to be part of the talks that took place between US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders on Tuesday, Stefanishyna said.

In addition to the US plane, the UK last week supplied 2,000 short-range, anti-tank missiles and sent British specialists to provide training. It has also provided Saxon armored personnel carriers. Estonia is sending Javelin anti-armor missiles, and Latvia and Lithuania are providing Stinger missiles.

Turkey has sold Ukraine several batches of Bayraktar TB2 drones that it deployed against Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbass region, infuriating Moscow. The Czech Republic last week said it planned to donate a shipment of 152-mm. artillery ammunition.

The improvements to Ukraine’s defenses have given regular citizens a sense of security and confidence.

“When I heard news of the US withdrawing its diplomats from Ukraine, I was a little nervous,” said Roma, who expressed slight nervousness only because his father serves in the Ukrainian Army. “But I believe it will be fine.”

“I think the conflict is a provocation for Ukraine and a political show to make the Ukrainians panic,” he said. “That’s why I don’t read the news. When you just live your life, you’re normal. But when you see (in the news) that there will be a war tomorrow, and you need to stock up, it’s all you think about.”

Lena said she was under stress because her boyfriend and some of her friends live in Russia, meaning they have not been able to see each other recently.

“If we want to see each other, we need to fly to Turkey or Cyprus,” she said.

Lena said she was not concerned about a war breaking out.

“I feel good, and my friends feel good,” she said. “I have a friend who works in a military department, and he tells me that everything is okay.”

Dimitri said he was not sure if there would be a war because it would be expensive for both Ukraine and Russia. He still thinks there is a possibility because “there is one crazy man who is a dictator in Russia, and who knows this crazy man? Maybe he only wants war.”

Dimitri said he was certain that if there is a war, he will be fighting for his country.

“I think like Israelis,” he said. “If there is war, I’ll fight, and if there is no war, then I will move on.”

The Ukrainian government said the Israeli perspective could be of use because of the way it deals with conflicts.

“We have made sure we have good cooperation with the Israeli government in terms of their experience and best practices when it comes to the hybrid attacks and military development of the military service,” Stefanishyna said. “The dynamics are very positive.”

Dimitri’s patriotism reflects a level seen now among Ukrainians that was not as prevalent during the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian war.

“We are definitely more patriotic now,” Sergei said.

“I believe in Ukrainians,” Roma said. “I believe in our army and that our politicians can stabilize the situation.”

Mia said she felt strongly about her Ukrainian nationality and would not be okay with Ukraine becoming a part of Russia. She said she argues every week with her grandfather, who lives in Russia.

“He always tells me that Russia would be best for the Ukrainian people,” she added.

The best assistance Ukraine’s allies could give would be “political pressure on Russia and military support,” Stefanishyna said.

 

ReconAfrica: An emerging energy giant from Canada

ReconAfrica is a Canadian oil and gas company engaged in the opening of the newly discovered deep Kavango Sedimentary Basin, in the Kalahari Desert of northeastern Namibia and northwestern Botswana. The Company holds petroleum licenses comprising approximately 8.5 million contiguous acres.

Operations

Processing of the first 450 kms of 2D seismic data acquired in the Kavango Basin was recently completed with excellent results. The initial interpretation is near complete and has delineated a diverse group of high-quality prospects for the upcoming three to six well drilling program.

Relevant to the current list of seismically defined prospects, a second 2D seismic acquisition program comprising approximately 500 kms has been designed. As a result, a corresponding update to the seismic Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has been submitted to the Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism for approval. Subject to the appropriate approvals, the second 2D seismic program is scheduled to commence by the end of February 2022. A more detailed drilling schedule for H1 2022 will be provided as soon as all permits are approved by the Namibian government.

Environment, Social and Governance

As part of the previously announced comprehensive ESG program dedicated to the Kavango East and Kavango West regions, the Company is supporting the Namibian Ministry of Health and Social Service's COVID-19 response by donating N$15 million (CDN$1.27 million) for a proactive roll-out vaccination campaign for the hard-to-reach, remote villages, and settlements in Kavango East and Kavango West. In the first month, the campaign has recorded over 8,000 initial vaccinations, over 1,200 second doses and 100 boosters. 52 of the 81 planned villages have been covered to date. ReconAfrica is also assisting with oxygen provision and mortuary services support.

ReconAfrica conducts ongoing engagement programs, led by its Community Liaison Officers and Community Engagement teams, to ensure a steady flow of communication, in local languages, with impacted and interested stakeholders, Traditional Authorities, Conservancies, Communities and other interest groups. Specifically, the Company has conducted more than 300 community engagement sessions related to the drilling and 2D seismic programs to share information and track stakeholder feedback. 

Board of Directors

The Company is pleased to announce the appointment of Craig Steinke as a director and executive Chairman of the Board. Steinke, the founder of ReconAfrica, has played a pivotal role since inception in the development of ReconAfrica through his private energy consulting practice. Steinke has over 25 years of experience in identifying, successfully developing and financing oil and natural gas exploration and production projects in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia. Additionally, through his privately held company, Steinke plays an active role leading a diversified team, in generating new sources and technologies for sustainable energy.

Leaving the board of directors is Jay Park, one of the Company's early stage and significant shareholders, has served the Company and its predecessor Reconnaissance Oil as its Chief Executive Officer from May 2018 to August 2020, and then as the Company's executive Chairman. Park will continue to take the leading role in advising ReconAfrica on all oil and gas legal matters through Park Energy Law where he is Managing Partner.

Joining the Board of the Company is Dr. Joseph R. Davis. Dr. Davis has 40 years of experience as an oil and gas geologist focused on reserve estimation and understanding exploration risk. Dating back to 2013, Dr. Davis led the technical team in the original discovery of the Kavango basin. In 2015 Dr. Davis was a founding partner of a private US based natural gas company, focused on sustainable natural gas production, achieving natural gas production of over 800mmcf/day. Dr. Davis has a PhD in Geology from the University of Texas and serves as Secretary of the Trustee Associates of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Foundation. He also serves on the AAPG's Sustainable Development Committee, which provides industry leadership in technology and training for meeting United Nations sustainable development goals, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting ground and surface water supplies, and defining the reservoirs necessary for carbon storage and sequestration. 

Retiring from the board of directors but retaining an active role with the company as Geoscience advisor is Dr. James Granath, who has served as a director of the Company from August 2019. Dr. Granath's new role focuses on the structural geology aspects of exploring and developing the Kavango Basin. The Company thanks Dr. Granath for his major contribution to the Board of ReconAfrica and is pleased that he will be providing continued technical deliverables for the exploration and development of the Kavango basin.

IMF Forecasts Disrupted Global Recovery

According to an IMF communique the continuing global recovery faces multiple challenges as the pandemic enters its third year. The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led to renewed mobility restrictions in many countries and increased labor shortages. 

Supply disruptions still weigh on activity and are contributing to higher inflation, adding to pressures from strong demand and elevated food and energy prices. Moreover, record debt and rising inflation constrain the ability of many countries to address renewed disruptions.

Some challenges could be shorter lived than others. The new variant appears to be associated with less severe illness than the Delta variant, and the record surge in infections is expected to decline relatively quickly. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook therefore anticipates that while Omicron will weigh on activity in the first quarter of 2022, this effect will fade starting in the second quarter.

Other challenges, and policy pivots, are expected to have a greater impact on the outlook. IMF projects global growth this year at 4.4 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than previously forecast, mainly because of downgrades for the United States and China. In the case of the United States, this reflects lower prospects of legislating the Build Back Better fiscal package, an earlier withdrawal of extraordinary monetary accommodation, and continued supply disruptions. China’s downgrade reflects continued retrenchment of the real estate sector and a weaker-than-expected recovery in private consumption. Supply disruptions have led to mark downs for other countries too, such as Germany. IMF expects global growth to slow to 3.8 percent in 2023. This is 0.2 percentage point higher than stated in the October 2021 WEO and largely reflects a pickup after current drags on growth dissipate.

IMF has revised up our 2022 inflation forecasts for both advanced and emerging market and developing economies, with elevated price pressures expected to persist for longer. Supply-demand imbalances are assumed to decline over 2022 based on industry expectations of improved supply, as demand gradually rebalances from goods to services, and extraordinary policy support is withdrawn. Moreover, energy and food prices are expected to grow at more moderate rates in 2022 according to futures markets. Assuming inflation expectations remain anchored, inflation is therefore expected to subside in 2023.

Even as recoveries continue, the troubling divergence in prospects across countries persists. While advanced economies are projected to return to pre-pandemic trend this year, several emerging markets and developing economies are projected to have sizeable output losses into the medium-term. The number of people living in extreme poverty is estimated to have been around 70 million higher than pre-pandemic trends in 2021, setting back the progress in poverty reduction by several years.

The forecast is subject to high uncertainty and risks overall are to the downside. The emergence of deadlier variants could prolong the crisis. China’s zero-COVID strategy could exacerbate global supply disruptions, and if financial stress in the country’s real estate sector spreads to the broader economy the ramifications would be felt widely. Higher inflation surprises in the United States could elicit aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and sharply tighten global financial conditions. Rising geopolitical tensions and social unrest also pose risks to the outlook.

To address many of the difficulties facing the world economy, it is vital to break the hold of the pandemic. This will require a global effort to ensure widespread vaccination, testing, and access to therapeutics, including the newly developed anti-viral medications. As of now, only 4 percent of the populations of low-income countries are fully vaccinated versus 70 percent in high-income countries. In addition to ensuring predictable supply of vaccines for low-income developing countries, assistance should be provided to boost absorptive capacity and improve health infrastructure. It is urgent to close the US$23.4 billion financing gap for the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and to incentivize technological transfers to help speed up diversification of global production of critical medical tools, especially in Africa.

At the national level, policies should remain tailored to country specific circumstances including the extent of recovery, of underlying inflationary pressures, and available policy space. Both fiscal and monetary policies will need to work in tandem to achieve economic goals. Given the high level of uncertainty, policies must also remain agile and adapt to incoming economic data.

With policy space diminished in many economies, and strong recoveries underway in others, fiscal deficits in most countries are projected to shrink this year. The fiscal priority should continue to be the health sector, and transfers, where needed, should be effectively targeted to the worst affected. All initiatives will need to be embedded in medium-term fiscal frameworks that lay out a credible path for ensuring public debt remains sustainable.

Monetary policy is at a critical juncture in most countries. Where inflation is broad based alongside a strong recovery, like in the United States, or high inflation runs the risk of becoming entrenched, as in some emerging market and developing economies and advanced economies, extraordinary monetary policy support should be withdrawn. Several central banks have already begun raising interest rates to get ahead of price pressures. It is the key to communicate well the policy transition towards a tightening stance to ensure orderly market reaction. Where core inflationary pressures remain subdued, and recoveries incomplete, monetary policy can remain accommodative.

As the monetary policy stance tightens more broadly this year, economies will need to adapt to a global environment of higher interest rates. Emerging market and developing economies with large foreign currency borrowing and external financing needs should prepare for possible turbulence in financial markets by extending debt maturities as feasible and containing currency mismatches. Exchange rate flexibility can help with needed macroeconomic adjustment. In some cases, foreign exchange intervention and temporary capital flow management measures may be needed to provide monetary policy with the space to focus on domestic conditions.

With interest rates rising, low-income countries, of which 60 percent are already in or at high risk of debt distress, will find it increasingly difficult to service their debts. The G20 Common Framework needs to be revamped to deliver more quickly on debt restructuring, and G20 creditors and private creditors should suspend debt service while the restructurings are being negotiated.

At the start of the third year of the pandemic, the global death toll has risen to 5.5 million deaths and the accompanying economic losses are expected to be close to US$13.8 trillion through 2024 relative to pre-pandemic forecasts. These numbers would have been much worse had it not been for the extraordinary work of scientists, of the medical community, and the swift and aggressive policy responses across the world.

However, much work remains to ensure the losses are contained and to reduce wide disparities in recovery prospects across countries. Policy initiatives are needed to reverse the large learning losses suffered by children, especially in developing countries. On average, students in middle-income and low-income countries had 93 more days of nation-wide school closures than those in high income countries. On climate, a bigger push is needed to get to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with carbon pricing mechanisms, green infrastructure investment, research subsidies, and financing initiatives so that all countries can invest in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

The last two years reaffirm that this crisis and the ongoing recovery is like no other. Policymakers must vigilantly monitor a broad swath of incoming economic data, prepare for contingencies, and be ready to communicate and execute policy changes at short notice. In parallel, bold, and effective international cooperation should ensure that this is the year the world escapes the grip of the pandemic.

 

Ukraine accuses Germany of encouraging Putin

Foreign Minister of Ukraine has accused Germany of undermining unity among the country's allies and of encouraging Vladimir Putin by refusing to deliver arms to Kyiv.

Earlier, German Defence Minister said Berlin would set up a field hospital in Ukraine amid the security crisis between the West and Russia. But Christine Lambrecht said that sending military aid now would not help defuse the crisis.

"Today, the unity of the West with Russia is more important than ever. To achieve it and deter the Russian Federation, we are all working together," Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba responded via Twitter.

"German partners must stop such words and actions to undermine unity and encourage Vladimir Putin to a new attack on Ukraine."

The Ukrainian foreign minister added that Kyiv was grateful to Germany for its support and diplomatic efforts in recent years. "But Germany's current statements are disappointing and run counter to this support and effort," he added.

The United States, the United Kingdom and the Baltic states have promised to send weapons to Ukraine to respond to the military threat from Russia, which has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops along the border.

Washington announced the first delivery of "lethal aid" to Kyiv late on Friday.

Moscow denies planning to invade Ukraine, but is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO, including a permanent ban on Ukraine joining the Western military alliance.

German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said in an interview with the Welt am Sonntag newspaper that the field hospital will be delivered in February, with training for staff provided, at a cost to Germany of €5.3 million.

"We have already provided respirators," the minister said, adding that Germany was already treating in German hospitals Ukrainian soldiers seriously wounded in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

"So we are standing alongside Kyiv. Now we should do what is within our power to defuse the crisis," Lambrecht said. However, "the delivery of weapons would not currently contribute" to achieving such a goal, she added.

This position formed a "consensus within the federal government" led by Olaf Scholz, the Defence Minister said.

Germany's refusal to send weapons to Ukraine contrasts with the positions of the UK, Poland and the Baltic states. The Defence Ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania issued a statement saying they received US approval to send Stinger air defense missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles to strengthen Kyiv's defences.

Lambrecht described as a "red line" for NATO the right of each sovereign state to decide whether to join the Western military alliance, saying Russia had no veto. But the West was ready for dialogue with Moscow and to take Russian interests into account, she said.

 

 

India launches nuclear powered submarine

According to South Asia Journal India has launched its third SSBN (Nuclear Missile Submarine) at Ship Building Centre (SBC) in Visakhapatnam. Neither the Indian Navy nor the Ministry of Defense confirmed the news but according to the sources in the SBC and Indian navy, the launch of the submarine was confirmed. 

The newly launched SSBN called S4 could be critical for India’s credible nuclear deterrence like the previous two SSBNs and could have serious implications for South Asian security.

The submarine has been built jointly by the DAE (Department of Atomic Energy), DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization), Russian technicians and scientists, and Indian Navy personnel. The submarine has been relocated near the fitting-out wharf that was previously occupied by the INS Arighat which was launched in 2014 but still awaits its commissioning delayed due to pandemic.

As per the report, the satellite imagery shows that at 7,000 tons, the SSBN is slightly larger, with 125.4m load waterline measurement as compared to the 6,000 ton and 111.6m load waterline measurement of INS Arighat which is considered the lead boat in its class. Hence the S4 could be categorized as a successive boat of Arihant class variants.

The submarine shows the expansion of the vertical launch system of the submarine, it could support nearly eight launch tubes (missiles) which is double as compared to the previous SSBN. The submarine would be able to carry eight K-4 SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles) or 24 K-15 SLBMs with 3,500 km and 750 km strike range respectively.  However, the K-4 missile is still under development and has not been launched yet.

India in its quest to complete its nuclear triad plans to build six SSNs (Nuclear Powered Submarines). The naval platform is considered to be the most significant leg of the nuclear triad as it assures the second-strike capability of the state. But looking at India’s ambiguous NFU (No First Use Policy) such developments could become a huge threat to the strategic stability of South Asia.

The development of SSBNs by India is a matter of concern for not only Pakistan and the Indian Ocean littoral states but for the international community as well. With the development of nuclear-powered submarines, India has entered the club of a handful of countries that can construct, design, and operate such submarines.

The belligerent and aggressive attitude of India’s leadership raises serious concerns regarding responsible nuclear stewardship in India and threatens the strategic stability of South Asia. Construction of SSBNs and increased frequency of missile tests every year shows the aggressive posturing of India. Moreover, the deployment of nuclear weapons by India also requires the international community to reassess the non-proliferation benefits provided to India by various arms control and non-proliferation cartels.

Pakistan is also continuously strengthening its sea-based capabilities in order to deter India’s triad of land, sea, and air-launched nuclear weapons. There should not be any doubt about Pakistan’s capabilities and resolve to the challenges postured by the latest developments both in conventional and nuclear realms in South Asia.

Pakistan has already built Baber-3 (Sea Launched Cruise Missile) that has MIRV (Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle) capabilities to counter the growing submarine capability of India. It would provide a credible second-strike capability to Pakistan which would augment the existing deterrence considering the provocative nuclear posture and strategies in the neighborhood by developing ship-borne nuclear missiles and nuclear submarines.

Other than that, even though India had successfully tested K-4 missiles, its range still remains sub-optimal which would require the SSBN to operate at the Bay of Bengal’s northeastern fringes. This means that these submarines in order to target China’s economic and political hubs would have to travel around the Bangladeshi and Burmese littoral waters. Hence India’s sea-based deterrence capability would remain incomplete unless it is able to deploy an SSBN fleet with intercontinental-range missiles.

European Union can’t afford to antagonize Russia

The geopolitical standoff over Ukraine increasingly risks triggering economic pain, with the European Union (EU) having a lot more to lose than the United States.

As the threat of Russian military action against Ukraine looms, economists are beginning to tot up the potential economic losses if President Vladimir Putin decides to invade and other governments respond with sanctions. Russia has repeatedly denied such allegations.

Russia ranks the fifth-biggest trade partner of European Union and its top energy supplier, as against this United States barely makes the top 30, according to an analysis by Ben Holland and Anya Andrianova. Russia also draws in money from European household names such as Ikea and Volkswagen.

That leaves EU officials nervous about imposing sanctions on Russia as they worry those as well as an outright war could choke off natural gas supplies in the middle of winter when these are needed the most.

“European energy prices are a major concern,” Tim Ash, Senior Emerging Market Strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television. He said Putin wants the EU “terrified about gas this winter and being cold. He doesn’t want them to do anything if he goes into Ukraine.”

Bloomberg Economics’ model of the euro zone reckons the hit from higher energy prices could be as much as 1% of gross domestic product.

Meantime, JPMorgan Chase economists drew eyeballs on Friday as they detailed what would happen if a skirmish between Ukraine and Russia helped lift oil to US$150/barrel this quarter. They estimated such a shock would be enough to drive global growth down to 0.9% in the first half of this year and worldwide inflation to surge above 7%.

Gas is a particularly sensitive matter now, with Russia holding back supplies for the past few months. Prices have tripled, boosting the cost of electricity across the continent. It’s the main reason Europe is suffering a bigger energy shock than the United States.

“Were sanctions to be placed on Russia’s energy exports or were Russia to use gas exports as a tool for leverage, European natural gas prices would probably soar,” said Capital Economics analyst William Jackson. “We think they would far exceed the peak reached last year.”

 

 

Supply Chain Delays Worsen in United States

While a growing number of Los Angeles-bound cargo ships are now biding time off the coast of Mexico, the supply chain crisis progressed this week as consumers found empty shelves in stores across the United States.

“There’s a big population of ships off the coast of Mexico,” Kip Louttit, Director of the Marine Exchange, told The Epoch Times. “If you look at the Pacific, it kind of makes sense to go down there. The weather is better the further south you go.”

The number of ships waiting to deliver goods in Los Angeles has jumped about 12% since October 2021, when President Joe Biden announced the ports would be opened around-the-clock to ease congestion.

The marine exchange reported 190 ships of all types were waiting in line to dock at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports on January 19, 2022. In mid-October, the number was about 170.

It also takes about two months longer to deliver goods from Asia to the Pacific Coast now than in 2019, before the pandemic, according to Flexport, a San Francisco-based freight-forwarding company.

In early January this year, Flexport found that westbound shipments from Asia took an average of 110 days, a 65-day increase and a new record high.

Meanwhile, consumers continued to express frustration across social media with supply shortages. Photos of empty meat sections at a Tennessee Walmart have been shared, as well as empty shelves in Ohio, Missouri and around the country.

Retail shortages are widespread, Geoff Freeman, President and CEO Consumer Brands Association, a retail advocacy group, told the Associated Press earlier this month.

According to Freeman, typically US grocery stores have 5 to 10 percent of their items out of stock. Now, that rate is around 15 percent.

According to a recent poll, by the Consumer Brands Association and Morning Consult, 70% of respondents said they experienced shortages at grocery stores in December last year.

But Biden told reporters January 19, 2022 that the supply chain crisis did not occur during the holidays last year.

Empty shelves and a shortage of car parts, electronic chips and certain food products are becoming commonplace among businesses of all sizes in California, according to California Retailers Association President and CEO Rachel Michelin.

“It’s not getting as much attention as we were getting before, but there are still challenges,” Michelin told The Epoch Times. “I would say that on the supply chain side, it’s not getting any better.”

Michelin said small businesses continue to be especially vulnerable, not only because of the supply chain crisis, but also increased crime that is being reported nationwide and the ongoing disruption of COVID-19. “It is layer, upon layer, upon layer,” she said.

As a result, customers will likely have to start paying even higher prices for goods in addition to the current 7% inflation rate, she said.

Meanwhile, officials have not yet been able to predict when the shipping backlog will ease.

Flexport reported earlier this month that the increased demand for goods in the US is expected to stay and fixes by the Biden Administration have not panned out.

“Despite attempts in October last year by the Biden administration to unclog US West Coast ports there is still evidence that logistics networks remain congested, and will remain so, potentially for at least another year”, Flexport reported.