Pakistan: Central bank must cut interest rate

Pakistan, already suffering from cost pushed inflation faces two challenges. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has to make a difficult decision of cutting interest rate for making debt servicing sustainable.

The business community is already jittery due to likely introduction of new taxes, no reduction in interest rate, but more distressing hike in electricity and gas tariffs.

Analysts believe, Pakistan’s current account just can’t be improved without restoring competitiveness of the local manufacturers.

During this past week, Moody’s statement suggesting a status quo in the upcoming MPC meeting exerted some pressure on the stock market.

Looking ahead, the upcoming MPC meeting on June 10 will be in the spotlight, with any rate cut expected to shift the market’s focus towards cyclical sectors.

More than two years into the steepest interest-rate tightening cycle in decades, central banks around the world are grappling with how fast to unwind the policy. Policymakers from South Korea to Canada are weighing progress on slowing inflation, and some have started cutting rates.

Policymakers in Latin America have been trimming since earlier this year. While that all marks a major milestone, price pressures have proven stubborn, a strong dollar has roiled developing nations and geopolitical tensions have added a layer of uncertainty to the post-pandemic economic recovery.

US Federal Reserve officials will meet next week and are widely expected to hold interest rates steady as the US economy hums along and the labor market keeps firing on all thrusters. 

The Labor Department data this week suggesting last year’s payroll gains might not have been as robust as first counted, there’s now the risk that Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues could keep monetary policy too tight for too long.

Even as the Fed’s central bank peers diverge (the en-vogue term for the current unwinding cycle), rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada “are less bold departures and more like components of a mosaic,” Daniel Moss writes in Bloomberg Opinion. “Harmony has been breaking down for a while.”

 

Pakistan: Markup payments exceed net revenue collection

Economic analysts have been warning about the adverse impacts of indiscriminate borrowing and persistent hike in the interest rate, in the name of containing inflation. However, economic managers never paid any attention to this.

Today, I am inclined to refer to a report by Topline Securities, one of the leading brokerage houses of Pakistan. According to the report total markup payments during 9MFY23 were up 69%YoY on the back of higher interest rates and increasing debt stock.

Budget Deficit of Pakistan for 9MFY23 has been reported at PKR3.08 trillion or 3.7% of GDP as against PKR2.56 trillion or 3.8% of GDP in 9MFY22. Budget Deficit for 3QFY23 was reported at PKR1.39 trillion as against a deficit of PKR1.19 trillion for 3QFY22. IMFs has projected budget deficit for the full year FY23 at 4.6%.

The government for 9MFY23 recorded a primary surplus of PKR0.5 trillion or 0.6% of GDP as against a primary deficit of PKR0.45 trillion in 9MFY22. For 3QFY23 primary deficit was posted at PKR0.39 trillion as against a primary deficit of PKR0.53 trillion for 3QFY22. IMFs had projected primary surplus for FY23 at 0.2% of GDP. 

Total Revenue collection for 9MFY23 has been reported at PKR6.94 trillion as against PKR5.88 trillion for 9MFY22, a growth by 18%YoY. Total expenditures increased by 19%YoY to PKR10 trillion for the period under review.

Federal Government Markup Payments for 9MFY23 have been reported at PKR3.58 trillion as against net revenue receipts of PKR3.44 trillion. Total Markup payments during 9MFY23 were up 69%YoY on the back of higher interest rates and increasing debt stock.

Indirect Taxes contributing 55% of FBR revenue were reported at PKR2.84 trillion while Direct Tax collection was PKR2.31 trillion.

 

Global economy faces tougher year 2023

For much of the global economy, 2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of global growth - the United States, Europe and China - all experience weakening activity, the Head of International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Sunday.

The New Year is going to be "tougher than the year we leave behind," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on the CBS Sunday morning news program "Face the Nation."

"Why? Because the three big economies - the United States, European Union and China - are all slowing down simultaneously," she said.

In October 2022, the IMF had cut its outlook for global economic growth for 2023, reflecting the continuing drag from the war in Ukraine as well as inflation pressures and the high interest rates engineered by central banks like the US Federal Reserve aimed at bringing those price pressures to heel.

Since then, China has scrapped its zero-COVID policy and embarked on a chaotic reopening of its economy, though consumers there remain wary as coronavirus cases surge. In his first public comments since the change in policy, President Xi Jinping on Saturday called in a New Year's address for more effort and unity as China enters a "new phase."

"For the first time in 40 years, China's growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth," Georgieva said.

Moreover, a "bushfire" of expected COVID infections there in the months ahead are likely to further hit its economy this year and drag on both regional and global growth, said Georgieva, who traveled to China on IMF business late last month.

"I was in China last week, in a bubble in a city where there is zero COVID," she said. "But that is not going to last once people start traveling."

"For the next couple of months, it would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative, the impact on the region will be negative, the impact on global growth will be negative," she said.

In October's forecast, the IMF pegged Chinese gross domestic product growth last year at 3.2% - on par with the fund's global outlook for 2022. At that time, it also saw annual growth in China accelerating in 2023 to 4.4% while global activity slowed further.

Her comments, suggest another cut to both the China and global growth outlooks may be in the offing later this month when the IMF typically unveils updated forecasts during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

 

IMF Forecasts Disrupted Global Recovery

According to an IMF communique the continuing global recovery faces multiple challenges as the pandemic enters its third year. The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led to renewed mobility restrictions in many countries and increased labor shortages. 

Supply disruptions still weigh on activity and are contributing to higher inflation, adding to pressures from strong demand and elevated food and energy prices. Moreover, record debt and rising inflation constrain the ability of many countries to address renewed disruptions.

Some challenges could be shorter lived than others. The new variant appears to be associated with less severe illness than the Delta variant, and the record surge in infections is expected to decline relatively quickly. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook therefore anticipates that while Omicron will weigh on activity in the first quarter of 2022, this effect will fade starting in the second quarter.

Other challenges, and policy pivots, are expected to have a greater impact on the outlook. IMF projects global growth this year at 4.4 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than previously forecast, mainly because of downgrades for the United States and China. In the case of the United States, this reflects lower prospects of legislating the Build Back Better fiscal package, an earlier withdrawal of extraordinary monetary accommodation, and continued supply disruptions. China’s downgrade reflects continued retrenchment of the real estate sector and a weaker-than-expected recovery in private consumption. Supply disruptions have led to mark downs for other countries too, such as Germany. IMF expects global growth to slow to 3.8 percent in 2023. This is 0.2 percentage point higher than stated in the October 2021 WEO and largely reflects a pickup after current drags on growth dissipate.

IMF has revised up our 2022 inflation forecasts for both advanced and emerging market and developing economies, with elevated price pressures expected to persist for longer. Supply-demand imbalances are assumed to decline over 2022 based on industry expectations of improved supply, as demand gradually rebalances from goods to services, and extraordinary policy support is withdrawn. Moreover, energy and food prices are expected to grow at more moderate rates in 2022 according to futures markets. Assuming inflation expectations remain anchored, inflation is therefore expected to subside in 2023.

Even as recoveries continue, the troubling divergence in prospects across countries persists. While advanced economies are projected to return to pre-pandemic trend this year, several emerging markets and developing economies are projected to have sizeable output losses into the medium-term. The number of people living in extreme poverty is estimated to have been around 70 million higher than pre-pandemic trends in 2021, setting back the progress in poverty reduction by several years.

The forecast is subject to high uncertainty and risks overall are to the downside. The emergence of deadlier variants could prolong the crisis. China’s zero-COVID strategy could exacerbate global supply disruptions, and if financial stress in the country’s real estate sector spreads to the broader economy the ramifications would be felt widely. Higher inflation surprises in the United States could elicit aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and sharply tighten global financial conditions. Rising geopolitical tensions and social unrest also pose risks to the outlook.

To address many of the difficulties facing the world economy, it is vital to break the hold of the pandemic. This will require a global effort to ensure widespread vaccination, testing, and access to therapeutics, including the newly developed anti-viral medications. As of now, only 4 percent of the populations of low-income countries are fully vaccinated versus 70 percent in high-income countries. In addition to ensuring predictable supply of vaccines for low-income developing countries, assistance should be provided to boost absorptive capacity and improve health infrastructure. It is urgent to close the US$23.4 billion financing gap for the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and to incentivize technological transfers to help speed up diversification of global production of critical medical tools, especially in Africa.

At the national level, policies should remain tailored to country specific circumstances including the extent of recovery, of underlying inflationary pressures, and available policy space. Both fiscal and monetary policies will need to work in tandem to achieve economic goals. Given the high level of uncertainty, policies must also remain agile and adapt to incoming economic data.

With policy space diminished in many economies, and strong recoveries underway in others, fiscal deficits in most countries are projected to shrink this year. The fiscal priority should continue to be the health sector, and transfers, where needed, should be effectively targeted to the worst affected. All initiatives will need to be embedded in medium-term fiscal frameworks that lay out a credible path for ensuring public debt remains sustainable.

Monetary policy is at a critical juncture in most countries. Where inflation is broad based alongside a strong recovery, like in the United States, or high inflation runs the risk of becoming entrenched, as in some emerging market and developing economies and advanced economies, extraordinary monetary policy support should be withdrawn. Several central banks have already begun raising interest rates to get ahead of price pressures. It is the key to communicate well the policy transition towards a tightening stance to ensure orderly market reaction. Where core inflationary pressures remain subdued, and recoveries incomplete, monetary policy can remain accommodative.

As the monetary policy stance tightens more broadly this year, economies will need to adapt to a global environment of higher interest rates. Emerging market and developing economies with large foreign currency borrowing and external financing needs should prepare for possible turbulence in financial markets by extending debt maturities as feasible and containing currency mismatches. Exchange rate flexibility can help with needed macroeconomic adjustment. In some cases, foreign exchange intervention and temporary capital flow management measures may be needed to provide monetary policy with the space to focus on domestic conditions.

With interest rates rising, low-income countries, of which 60 percent are already in or at high risk of debt distress, will find it increasingly difficult to service their debts. The G20 Common Framework needs to be revamped to deliver more quickly on debt restructuring, and G20 creditors and private creditors should suspend debt service while the restructurings are being negotiated.

At the start of the third year of the pandemic, the global death toll has risen to 5.5 million deaths and the accompanying economic losses are expected to be close to US$13.8 trillion through 2024 relative to pre-pandemic forecasts. These numbers would have been much worse had it not been for the extraordinary work of scientists, of the medical community, and the swift and aggressive policy responses across the world.

However, much work remains to ensure the losses are contained and to reduce wide disparities in recovery prospects across countries. Policy initiatives are needed to reverse the large learning losses suffered by children, especially in developing countries. On average, students in middle-income and low-income countries had 93 more days of nation-wide school closures than those in high income countries. On climate, a bigger push is needed to get to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with carbon pricing mechanisms, green infrastructure investment, research subsidies, and financing initiatives so that all countries can invest in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

The last two years reaffirm that this crisis and the ongoing recovery is like no other. Policymakers must vigilantly monitor a broad swath of incoming economic data, prepare for contingencies, and be ready to communicate and execute policy changes at short notice. In parallel, bold, and effective international cooperation should ensure that this is the year the world escapes the grip of the pandemic.