The Shifting Paradigm of Pakistan’s Energy Sector

The prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has exposed a structural vulnerability in Pakistan’s energy supply chain: heavy dependence on imported crude oil and petroleum products moving through a strategically sensitive maritime corridor. What initially appeared to be a geopolitical challenge is now compelling Pakistan to rethink the architecture of its energy sector.

The incumbent government is reportedly engaging with oil-producing Arab countries to explore the establishment of crude oil and finished petroleum product storage facilities in Pakistan. If translated into concrete investments, this initiative could mark an important shift from Pakistan’s traditional model of importing petroleum largely on a shipment-to-shipment basis toward a more resilient system built around strategic storage, refining capacity and integrated logistics.

Pakistan has already announced plans to modernize its existing oil refineries. At the same time, proposals are being pursued for the establishment of a new greenfield or brownfield refinery. These initiatives should not be viewed as isolated projects. Together with additional storage capacity, they could trigger a broader transformation of the country’s downstream oil industry.

For decades, Pakistan’s refinery sector has struggled with ageing plants, technological limitations, inadequate investment and an unfavorable product mix. The modernization program provides an opportunity to address these weaknesses. Upgraded refineries could improve their ability to process different grades of crude, enhance yields of higher-value petroleum products and reduce dependence on imported finished products.

A new refinery, meanwhile, could complement rather than compete with existing capacity if planned according to future domestic demand and regional market requirements. The key is to avoid simply adding capacity without addressing efficiency, product quality, logistics and commercial viability. Pakistan needs refineries designed for the energy market of the future, not merely larger versions of yesterday’s facilities.

The proposed storage infrastructure could be equally significant. Pakistan has historically operated with limited strategic petroleum storage compared with the requirements of an economy dependent on imported energy. Adequate stocks of crude oil and finished products would provide greater flexibility during international supply disruptions, shipping constraints or sudden price volatility.

For Arab oil-producing countries, establishing storage facilities in Pakistan could also have commercial and strategic value. Storage closer to South Asian markets can potentially shorten supply chains, improve inventory management and facilitate timely deliveries. Pakistan, because of its geographic position, could emerge as a useful link between Middle Eastern producers and consumers in South Asia.

This development could consequently change the business model of oil marketing companies (OMCs). Instead of relying predominantly on imported finished products and conventional distribution networks, OMCs could increasingly operate within an integrated ecosystem involving local refining, bulk storage, transportation and inventory management. Competition may gradually shift from access to imported products toward efficiency, logistics, supply reliability and customer reach.

The logistics sector would also be affected. Expansion of storage facilities would require investment in ports, pipelines, tank farms, road and rail transportation, safety systems and digital inventory management. Such investment could create a wider energy-services ecosystem and generate opportunities beyond the petroleum sector itself.

However, infrastructure alone will not deliver a paradigm shift. Pakistan must ensure transparent regulations, commercially viable tariffs, efficient ports, reliable pipelines and a predictable taxation regime. Investment decisions extending over decades require policy continuity. Frequent changes in duties, pricing mechanisms and regulatory requirements can discourage precisely the long-term capital that the sector needs.

The government should therefore treat refinery modernization, new refining capacity and strategic storage as components of a single downstream energy strategy. Coordination among refineries, OMCs, ports, pipeline operators, financial institutions and regulators will be essential.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has demonstrated that energy security cannot depend solely on uninterrupted international shipping. Pakistan needs buffers within its own territory. Strategic storage, diversified supply arrangements, modern refineries and efficient logistics can collectively provide those buffers.

The emerging opportunity is therefore larger than the construction of a few refineries or storage tanks. It is about shifting Pakistan’s energy paradigm—from a predominantly import-dependent distribution model toward an integrated system combining refining, storage, logistics and strategic inventory management.

If implemented with commercial discipline and long-term policy consistency, the present challenge could become a catalyst for transforming Pakistan’s downstream petroleum industry. The objective should not merely be to survive the next disruption, but to build an energy infrastructure capable of absorbing future shocks while supporting industrial growth and national economic security.

Israel's October 27 Elections

Security, Iran and the Palestinian Question

Israel will hold parliamentary elections on October 27, 2026, to elect the 120-member Knesset. The contest will determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retains power or an opposition coalition forms the next government. Beyond leadership, voters face questions about national security, the economy, judicial governance and Israel’s international standing after years of regional conflict.

Political parties and priorities

The principal contenders include Netanyahu’s Likud and its right-wing and religious allies, notably Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism. The opposition includes Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. Arab-led Ra’am and the Joint List are also contesting seats.

Three major campaign priorities are security, governance and economic pressures. Netanyahu’s camp stresses military strength, confronting hostile regional forces and maintaining its security policies.

Opposition leaders promise to repair relations with international partners, curb extremist settler activity and improve governance. Economic concerns, the cost of living and the burden of military service also feature prominently. However, not every party has published a comprehensive election manifesto.

Iran: No easy policy shift

Iran remains a central security concern. Netanyahu has adopted a confrontational approach towards Tehran’s nuclear and military capabilities, while warning of retaliation against attacks by Iran and its regional allies. Opposition leaders also broadly support Israel’s military actions against Iran, although they criticize aspects of Netanyahu’s leadership and strategy. A change of government would therefore be unlikely to produce a fundamental reversal of Israel’s security posture.

Two states and Gaza’s reconstruction

The prospects for a two-state solution remain poor. Netanyahu and most major Zionist opposition leaders oppose Palestinian statehood or do not priorities it. The Democrats have left the possibility open as a longer-term objective, while Arab-led parties advocate Palestinian rights and self-determination.

Gaza’s reconstruction presents another challenge. Netanyahu’s government insists that Hamas must be disarmed and Israeli security concerns addressed. Far-right allies favour continued Israeli control and some advocate Palestinian emigration. Opposition leaders have signalled greater cooperation with international partners and the Palestinian Authority, but have not offered a unified plan guaranteeing Palestinian self-government.

The election may change Israel’s leadership and diplomatic tone, but a major shift on Iran, Palestinian statehood or Gaza’s future remains uncertain. Coalition arithmetic will determine how far campaign promises translate into policy.

 

Trump’s Russia Sanctions Waiver Triggers Bipartisan Backlash

President Donald Trump’s decision to exempt Russia from sanctions under a law he signed in September has drawn sharp criticism from Republican and Democratic lawmakers, raising questions about Washington’s commitment to pressuring Moscow over its war in Ukraine.

On Friday, Trump signed an executive order waiving sanctions provisions under the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The legislation, designed to pressure the Kremlin to end its military operations in Ukraine, authorizes tariffs on the five largest purchasers of Russian energy and countries helping Moscow evade sanctions.

Trump justified the waiver by invoking a provision allowing the president to suspend sanctions against foreign entities. He stated that he had submitted a certification to Congress declaring the waiver to be in the United States’ national interest.

However, the decision provoked strong opposition from members of his own party. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina called the move “beyond irresponsible,” questioning why the administration was disregarding legislation approved by the Senate in an 86–11 vote. He accused the administration of capitulating to Russian President Vladimir Putin despite Russia’s continued military operations in Ukraine.

Senator John Cornyn of Texas remarked that the late Senator Lindsey Graham, after whom the legislation was named, would have been appalled. Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska argued that Trump’s decision was prolonging rather than ending the war.

Democrats were equally critical. Senator Richard Blumenthal, who played a significant role in advancing the legislation, described the waiver as a “craven, cowardly action,” arguing that it served political accommodation rather than American national security. Representative Don Beyer of Virginia said the decision betrayed Ukraine and contradicted Congress’s clear legislative intent.

The controversy follows a separate agreement between Trump and Moscow permitting Russia to sell diesel products to the United States and international markets amid global fuel shortages. That arrangement had already triggered bipartisan criticism in Congress.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also expressed his sense of betrayal over Trump’s decision.

The developments highlight growing tensions between the White House and lawmakers over Washington’s Russia policy. By easing economic pressure on Moscow while Ukraine continues to face Russian military operations, Trump risks undermining congressional resolve, unsettling American allies and raising doubts about the consistency of US policy toward the Kremlin.

US may use mother of all bombs on Iran

According to a CNN report, the US military has developed strike plans ​that could include using ‌the so-called "mother of ​all bombs" to target Iranian energy ⁠infrastructure and nuclear sites ​should President Donald Trump ​order renewed combat operations.

The potential deployment of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb, the largest ‌non-nuclear ⁠bomb in the US arsenal, would mark a significant escalation in the ​conflict, ​although ⁠officials familiar with military planning discussions ​told CNN questions remain ​over ⁠its effectiveness in achieving Washington's strategic objectives.

Trump is facing pressure to bring an end to the deeply unpopular war, as Republicans brace for potential political backlash from voters in the upcoming midterm elections and there is little indication the two countries are close to a negotiated resolution after more than six months of US bombing.

While the US military continues to provide Trump with options for potential strikes against outstanding Iranian targets, some officials continue to privately question whether the White House has a strategy that incorporates those plans in a way that could actually end the war.

For months, Trump and his advisers have discussed options that could act as a “definitive” end to the war, aware of how unpopular the conflict has become among Americans.

While some administration figures have characterized the war as essentially won, Trump has been more guarded in recent remarks, stopping short of declaring victory and saying the US still has unfinished business in the country.

Behind the scenes, Trump has also cast doubt on some outside allies who have encouraged him to simply bring US troops home and move on. Doing so, Trump has argued, would look like defeat.

Over the course of the last several weeks, White House advisers have held meetings to discuss various options for Iran. While Trump announced publicly that he would not take new actions before the midterms, several advisers said privately they didn’t know whether that statement was definitive or could change before election day.

Trump has ordered the military to develop additional strike packages against Iranian targets that include “a lot of energy infrastructure” and the potential use of a MOAB, one of the sources told CNN.

The phrasing used was that this attack would come “prior to US retrograde in CENTCOM AOR (area of responsibility),” indicating the administration could launch the additional strikes, attempt to declare victory and quickly pull everyone out.

A second source said military plans for striking Iranian nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, also explicitly call for using the MOAB. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Pickaxe, where the US and Israel believe Tehran has stored components of its nuclear program, even after pausing full combat operations earlier this year, and Trump continues to emphasize that his goal is to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.

Another US official noted that when the military plans, it develops a menu of options for policymakers that range from the high-end to low-end. Higher-end targets, including those that are located deep underground, require bigger bombs, and the MOAB is the biggest.

But there are questions around whether the MOAB would be an effective munition to use against Iran’s nuclear facilities and other sites that are located deep underground. While the GPS-guided bomb is capable of destroying an area equivalent to nine city blocks, it likely lacks the capability to penetrate deep enough under the surface to destroy the suspected nuclear facilities at Pickaxe, which is believed to be fortified by layers of granite, and other remaining Iranian nuclear sites.

Many within the administration as well as outside analysts agree that the only way to decisively defeat Iran would be through a major operation involving ground troops, a commitment that could potentially cost thousands of American lives. The Pentagon considers all scenarios, so those plans exist, but as of now no one in the administration is arguing for such drastic action.

Trump has indicated he has little interest in putting US boots on the ground in Iran but his desire to end the conflict as soon as possible presents a political dilemma for a president who is keenly aware of how unpopular the war has become yet has been unable to secure a diplomatic agreement that would bring it to a close.

Top Trump administration officials and military planners have been focused, for weeks, on finding an off-ramp that gives Trump a “symbolic” win — at minimum — he can try to sell to the American people without preventing a potential diplomatic breakthrough, starting with an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, CNN has reported.

A fourth source familiar with the Pentagon’s recent planning discussions on Iran told CNN that military officials had developed some options that would amount to a “fireworks show,” with the goal of providing Trump an off-ramp from the conflict even if those strikes fail to accomplish his stated goals for starting the war in the first place.

And despite Trump’s recent pledge to hold off on launching additional strikes before the midterms, the US military already appears to be preparing for potential Iranian retaliation should the president give the go-ahead.

The next turnover of US troops deployed to CENTCOM is also expected to take place within the next few weeks, a US official who acknowledged it is possible some of the personnel who rotate out of the region, may not be replaced by fresh service members.

 

PSX benchmark index closes almost flat WoW, despite volatility

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed volatility during the week ended on October 16, 2026, due to political uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Index declined by 670 points to close at 166,420, down 0.4%WoW.

Brent crude price remained elevated amid continued disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.

On the macroeconomic front, Pakistan recorded a current account deficit (CAD) of US$356 million in September 2026, as compared to a surplus of US$123 million during the same period last year, reflecting some added pressure on the external account.

Remittances by overseas Pakistanis rose 13%YoY in September 2026 to US$3.6 billion.

The GoP raised PKR660 billion through the latest T-Bills auction, with yields remaining broadly stable following the sharp repricing in the previous auction.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased to US$21.47 billion as of October 09, 2026.

Passenger car sales declined by 9.8%YoY to 10,939 units in September 2026.

Textile exports grew by 5.2%YoY during 1QFY27, led by growth in ready-made garments, knitwear and cotton yarn.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) FBR collection exceeded Q1 collection target, 2) IMF projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.5% for FY27, while forecasting inflation at 9.9%, 3) Pakistan received first LNG cargo of October, 4) Refineries produced 92,482 tons of LPG in July-August, and 5) RDA attracted US$251 millio in September.

Leasing companies, Woolen, and Jute remained top performing sectors, while laggards included:  Apparel, Technology & Communication, and Transport.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds amounting to US$10.7 million. On the contrary, major net buyers were Banks (US$8.3 million) and Companies with US$6.7 million.

Top performing scrips were: BNWM, AGP, IMAGE, BML, and JDWS, while laggards included: POL, PTC, APL, CPHL, and THCCL.

AKD Securities expects the market to improve on the back of strengthening economic indicators. Additionally, easing inflationary pressures would reduce probability of monetary tightening. Moreover, any positive development on Middle East conflict could moderate international oil prices and serve as a key trigger for market as it paves the way for monetary easing.

The market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

American Superpower Image Is Being Tarnished

The image of the United States as the world's undisputed superpower is facing an unprecedented test. A succession of strategic setbacks, policy reversals and strained alliances is raising a fundamental question, can Washington still translate its overwhelming military and economic strength into lasting geopolitical gains?

The latest agreement allowing Russian diesel supplies to global markets, accompanied by temporary sanctions relief, offers a telling example. After years of seeking to constrain Moscow over its war in Ukraine, Washington has turned to Russia to ease fuel-market pressures exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. The move highlights the limits of economic sanctions when geopolitical ambitions collide with domestic necessities.

The US-Israel war on Iran presents an even greater strategic challenge. Despite months of intensive bombing and the reported killing of Iran's supreme leader, Washington has not secured a decisive outcome. Iran's continued resistance and its ability to disrupt regional energy infrastructure demonstrate that superior firepower does not automatically translate into political submission.

The withdrawal of US forces from Iraq after more than two decades further complicates Washington's regional legacy. Although, the departure follows an earlier agreement and can be presented as a change in military strategy, Iran and its allies have celebrated it as a victory. Concerns about Tehran's expanding influence underline the difficulty Washington has faced in shaping Iraq's political and security landscape.

Saudi Arabia's experience raises equally uncomfortable questions. Despite its longstanding security partnership with Washington, the kingdom has suffered attacks on critical infrastructure, including Riyadh's airport and major energy facilities. Washington's reluctance to provide the direct military intervention Riyadh sought has fuelled doubts about the practical limits of American security guarantees.

Meanwhile, China and Russia are exploiting the shifting strategic environment to expand their influence. Their growing engagement with regional governments does not mean that either can replace America's entire security role, but it gives Middle Eastern states greater room to diversify their partnerships.

The central issue is no longer whether America possesses formidable power; it clearly does. The question is whether that power can deliver the political outcomes Washington seeks. A superpower's standing depends not only on its capacity to wage war, but also on its ability to achieve objectives, protect partners and sustain international confidence. If these shortcomings persist, America's global leadership will face an increasingly difficult test.

China to support Bangladesh in achieving energy security

The United States and China have signalled support for Bangladesh’s economic recovery and energy security, Beijing expressing interest in expanding investment in the country’s power and energy sectors and Washington offering cooperation on debt management.

The assurances came during separate meetings between Bangladesh’s delegation and officials from the US Treasury Department and the Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim Bank) on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

A member of the Bangladesh delegation said China Exim Bank had expressed interest in increasing investment in Bangladesh’s energy and power sectors.

The bank also informed the delegation that its chairman would visit Dhaka next week, raising the prospect of further engagement on investment.

The US Treasury Department, meanwhile, assured Bangladesh of cooperation in several areas, including debt management and bilateral relations.

Washington’s support is seen particularly important to Bangladesh’s efforts to secure financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), given the United States’ veto power over the institution’s decisions.

After meeting US Treasury officials, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said Bangladesh had received less support from the United States than it had expected in the past, but hoped closer bilateral ties would lead to greater assistance.

The discussions covered debt management, bilateral relations and other issues, he said, adding that the improvement in relations had raised the government’s expectations of further US support.

Pointing to Bangladesh’s purchases of aircraft from the US and imports of goods including soybeans, the finance minister said the country should receive greater American support in advancing its development and economic interests.

Prime Minister’s Economic Adviser Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said the IMF, World Bank and US Treasury Department, among others, had acknowledged that the current government had inherited economic difficulties and high inflation.

The conflict in the Middle East had added to the pressure on the economy, he said.

They also said the current government was working sincerely to resolve the problems. As a result, the World Bank, IMF, US Treasury Department and other organizations have assured Bangladesh of their support.

According to Titumir, international financial institutions and US officials recognized the government’s sincere efforts to address these challenges. As a result, the World Bank, IMF, US Treasury Department and other organizations had assured Bangladesh of their support, he said.

The government expects confirmation of the assistance within the next two to three months, he added.