For decades, Oman has maintained a delicate diplomatic
balance. Unlike many regional actors, Muscat preferred mediation over
confrontation and dialogue over military adventurism. Yet geography has
transformed the Sultanate into one of the most strategically valuable locations
in the region.
The Port of Duqm and surrounding naval infrastructure are
dangerously close to the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil
transit corridor. At the same time, the location places Oman within immediate
strategic proximity of Iran’s Chabahar Port and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, two
emerging nodes in regional trade and connectivity. This triangle alone explains
why global powers increasingly view Oman not merely as a Gulf state, but as a
geopolitical gateway.
Washington’s expanding military footprint across the Gulf is
often presented as a mechanism for maintaining stability and protecting
maritime trade. However, history suggests that foreign military presence rarely
remains temporary. Strategic access gradually evolves into political leverage,
while security dependency slowly weakens national sovereignty.
Donald Trump’s confrontational posture toward Iran reflects
more than ideological hostility. It also represents an attempt to demonstrate
American dominance after Tehran resisted enormous economic sanctions,
diplomatic isolation, and military intimidation. Direct confrontation with Iran
carries enormous risks, but smaller Gulf states may appear easier arenas where
Washington can project strength without triggering full-scale regional war.
This should concern every Arab emirate. The Gulf monarchies
must recognize that fragmented security policies only increase dependence on
outside powers. No state, regardless of wealth, can indefinitely preserve
sovereignty while outsourcing its strategic defense architecture to foreign
military forces.
Today the pressure may revolve around Oman and the Strait of
Hormuz. Tomorrow the same logic could be applied elsewhere in the Gulf under
another security pretext.
The lesson is becoming impossible to ignore - Arab states
must either develop a collective regional security framework based on mutual
defense and strategic independence, or continue watching external powers shape
the future of the Gulf according to their own geopolitical interests.
