PSX benchmark Index closes the week up 3%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed positive momentum during this past week. The benchmark Index closed the week up 5,336 points or 3%WoW at 181,430. Market participation remained thin with average daily traded volume falling by 29%WoW to 934 million shares.

This, coupled with Iran-Oman talks aimed at restoring the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-conflict position, drove oil prices below US$80/bbl levels, before settling slightly up at US$82/ bbl on Friday. Moreover, robust financial results from the banking sector bolstered sentiments.

Trade deficit for July 2026 reported at US$3.9 billion remained down 15%MoM led by higher exports. The positive sentiments were partially tempered by uncertainties surrounding the Red Sea passageway, and higher-than-anticipated CPI of 9.2%YoY for the month, although inflation came in single digits after 4 months.

Petroleum offtakes rose 23%YoY for July 2026 to 1.5 million tons as compared to the same period last year due to rains and floods, resulting in a lower base, along with tighter enforcement curbing fuel smuggling from Iran.

Cement sector offtakes grew 6%YoY to 4.5 million tons during the month, supported by improved construction activity.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Turkey, Saudi Arabia & Pakistan signed joint defence agreement, 2) OPEC plus raised September oil output by 188,000 bpd, 3) GoP raised PKR882 billion through T-bills auction, 4) GoP also raised PKR474 billion via PIBs sale, and 5) foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose to US$17.0 billion as of Jul 31, 2026.

Top performing sectors included: Jute, Textile Spinning, and Property, while laggards included: Synthetic & Rayon, Leasing Companies, and Sugar & Allied Industries.

Buying by Mutual Funds amounted to US$13.2 million. Net sellers were Banks with US$11.2 million.

Top performing scrips were: GADT, POWER, CNERGY, NPL, and BOP, while laggards included: MEHT, IBFL, PGLC, KTML, and SHFA.

AKD Securities, expects market to improve on strengthening economic indicators amid easing geopolitical tensions, along with favorable financial results for the quarter ended June26.

Additionally, a po­tential US-Iran deal could moderate international oil prices towards pre-conflict levels, further supporting sentiment. Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

According to the brokerage house, the benchmark Index is likely to reach 263,800 by end December 2026.

Top picks of the brokerage house include OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

PSX benchmark index up 3.0%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed bullish sentiments on Monday and the benchmark index gained 7,241 points, led by a pause in US-Iran strikes, which raised hopes of a diplomatic solution and caused oil prices to fall below US$85/bbl. However, with no lasting resolution during the week, the market remained under pressure over the next three trading sessions, before rebounding on Friday to close the week up 5,073 points or 3.0%WoW at 176,094 points.

Sentiments were further supported by positive June 2026 financial results announced by major companies. Meanwhile, SBP’s status quo in its first FY27 meeting on Monday had little impact on the market, as the decision was largely in line with expectations. Additionally, market participation strengthened, with average daily trading rising by 48.5%WoW to 1.3 billion shares.

On the macroeconomic front, foreign exchange reserves held by SBP decreased to US$17.0 billion as of July 24, 2026. Saudi Arabia also rolled over its US$5 billion deposits for another 3 years, reducing external debt repayments to US$21.5 billion for FY27.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) ECC approves package of export finance incentives, 2) Dar seeks US partnership to double bilateral trade to US$20 billion, 3) PM Shehbaz Sharif approves amendments to Pakistan Oil Refining Policy, 4) Saudi group eyes US$10 billion investment in Pakistan, and 5) Pakistan, Kuwait agree to expand economic ties.

Active sectors were: Jute, Modarabas, and Refinery, while the lagged included: Close-end Mutual Funds, Miscellaneous, and Textile Weaving.

Major buying was recorded by Mutual Funds of US$14.7 million. While sellers were Individuals with US$11.9 million.

Top performing scrips were: AICL, MLCF, PIBTL, KOHC, and IBFL, while laggards included: HGFA, PIOC, PGLC, YOUW, and TPLRF1.

According to AKD Securities, going forward, any positive progress on US-Iran conflict, along with moderating international oil prices towards pre-conflict levels would remain the key focus.

Favorable financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 would support market sentiment in the near term. Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

PSX benchmark index declines 2.7%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure during the week ended on July 24, 2026. The benchmark index declined by 4,782 points or 2.7%WoW to close at 171,021 points. The average daily trading volume also declined by 3.2%WoW to slightly more than 881 million shares.  

As reported my Western media, Yemen's Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and claimed strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, putting Bab el-Mandeb flows at risk alongside the existing disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. The US carried out strikes on Iranian military targets on twelfth consecutive night.

Brent peaked above US$101/ bbl before easing to US$97, keeping energy import and inflation concerns at the forefront.

Sentiment found some support from S&P Global upgrade of Pakistan's long-term sovereign credit rating to 'B' with a stable outlook, citing stability and reform implementation.

On the macroeconomic front, yields during the T-Bills auction rose across all tenors.

Banking sector deposits increased 15.2%YoY to PKR40.9 trillion in June 2026.

Urea offtakes rose 2%YoY to 592,000 tons, driven by improving farm economics and availability of subsidies and cheaper financing. As against this, DAP sales declined 58%YoY on higher pricing.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan sought a US$10 billion bilateral exchange stabilization facility from the United States, 2) GoP proposed changes to the Brown field Refining Policy, 3) Pakistan purchased a spot LNG cargo at US$21.88/ mmbtu, the highest since March this year, 4) US unveiled new tariffs on 60 trade partners ranging 10-12% including Pakistan, and 5) OGRA decided to set petroleum prices on daily basis under new pricing mechanism.

Top performing sectors were: Refinery, Insurance, and Textile Spinning, while the lagged included: Jute, Sugar & Allied Industries, and Close-end Mutual Fund.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Banks of US$31.0 million, while major buyers were Individuals and Foreigners aggregating to US2$2.5 million.

Company-wise, top performers were: YOUW, CNERYGY, PGLC, ATRL, and NESTLE, while laggards included: SSGC, SNGP, KTML, MLCF, and KOHC.

According to AKD Securities, the US-Iran conflict and international oil prices, along with monetary policy announcement would remain the key focus.

Additionally, favorable financial results for the period ended June 30, 2026 would drive the market sentiments in the near term.

Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

Washington’s Flawed Energy Geopolitics

The persistent volatility in global energy markets is less a reflection of physical supply deficits and more a testament to weaponized energy supply. A cold analysis of data confirms there is no genuine global oil shortage. Instead, what the world is witnessing is a meticulously manufactured crisis, orchestrated by Washington in a desperate bid to dominate global oil production and its critical logistical chokepoints.

The centerpiece of this strategy relies heavily on calculated disruptions, particularly around the highly sensitive Strait of Hormuz. Yet, the Trump administration’s aggressive maneuvers have failed to achieve their ultimate economic target - driving crude prices up to US$200 per barrel mark. While the market remained resilient against these artificial supply shocks, the underlying motives of American interventionism have become glaringly obvious.

Through this manufactured instability, Washington has attempted to kill two birds with one stone. First, by keeping the market in perpetual anxiety without letting prices completely boil over to catastrophic levels, it successfully squeezed and manipulated the oil revenues of traditional Arab exporting nations, altering their fiscal leverage. Second, and perhaps more critically, the engineered friction along maritime routes are aimed at containing and throttling the steady flow of vital energy supplies to China’s industrial engine.

For developing economies, this artificial premium adds an unnecessary layer of import-led inflation. Global stakeholders must recognize that the current energy narrative is driven by geopolitical chess rather than the fundamentals of demand and supply. The international community must push for transparent, unhindered maritime logistics to insulate the global economy from unilateral hegemonic control.

Escalation Carries Costs World Cannot Afford

The debate surrounding the Strait of Hormuz increasingly appears to be moving in a dangerous direction. Attention seems focused on how quickly the waterway can be reopened and how strongly pressure can be applied. Yet a larger question deserves equal attention, what if the cure becomes costlier than the disease itself?

The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a strategic water passage. It is one of the world’s most critical economic arteries. Any prolonged disruption affects much more than regional politics. Energy markets react instantly, shipping costs rise, insurance premiums climb, and financial markets begin pricing uncertainty into almost every sector.

The present concern is not simply the blockade itself. The greater risk lies in the assumption that military escalation automatically delivers rapid political results. History often suggests otherwise. Military pressure can create consequences that continue long after the original objective has been achieved.

Another issue relates to perception and diplomacy. The impression that US President Donald Trump often adopts forceful positions and occasionally shifts messaging rapidly could create uncertainty among allies and adversaries alike. In international crises, predictability can become a strategic asset. Markets and partners generally respond more positively to clarity than to uncertainty.

Arab states also have reasons to remain cautious. Their economies have spent decades building themselves around trade, finance, logistics, and regional stability. Few would welcome being pulled into an expanding confrontation carrying uncertain outcomes.

Meanwhile, larger powers cannot be ignored. If Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin conclude that their strategic or economic interests are being threatened, increased diplomatic or political involvement may further complicate the situation.

The real warning is becoming difficult to ignore. The issue may no longer be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. The larger question is whether attempts to force a quick solution end up creating a much wider economic shock. History repeatedly shows that markets can recover from temporary disruptions. Recovering from a broader geopolitical fracture is often far more difficult.

Trump: Diplomat, Opportunist, Hypocrite or Simply a Gambler?

The latest headline in Nikkei Asia — “Trump calls Xi ‘great leader,’ vows ties will be better than ever” — once again exposes the extraordinary contradictions that define the politics of US President, Donald Trump. Only recently, Trump had declared that the United States did not require Chinese cooperation to deal with a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Washington continued tightening sanctions targeting the movement of Iranian oil to China while portraying Beijing as America’s principal strategic adversary.

The sudden shift in tone raises a serious question, who exactly is Donald Trump — a diplomat, an opportunist, a hypocrite, or simply a political gambler?

Diplomacy normally relies on consistency, credibility, and strategic clarity. Trump’s style appears fundamentally different. His statements often seem driven less by coherent long-term policy and more by immediate political or economic convenience. One-day China is accused of exploiting global trade, weakening American industry, and threatening international security. The next day, Xi Jinping is described as a “great leader” and bilateral relations are promised a bright future.

Such contradictions may energize domestic political audiences, but these simultaneously weaken America’s diplomatic credibility abroad. Allies struggle to understand Washington’s actual strategic direction, while rivals increasingly view American policy as transactional and unpredictable.

The contradiction becomes even sharper when examined alongside Trump’s broader policies. Sanctions on Chinese-linked Iranian oil trade, aggressive tariff rhetoric, restrictions on technology exports, and repeated efforts to economically isolate Beijing all reinforce the perception that Trump views China less as a business partner and more as a geopolitical foe. Yet whenever economic pressure begins unsettling American markets or threatening global supply chains, the rhetoric suddenly softens.

When a leader repeatedly alternates between portraying China as an existential threat and praising its leadership as indispensable, critics naturally begin questioning whether such statements reflect genuine policy or merely political convenience.

This is not classical diplomacy. It resembles high-stakes bargaining where confrontation and praise are alternated to maximize leverage. Trump appears convinced that unpredictability itself is a negotiating weapon. However, unpredictability may work in real estate deals; it becomes dangerous in global geopolitics.

Great powers can survive hostile rivals, but they struggle under inconsistent leadership. The real danger for America may not be China’s rise, but Washington’s inability to decide whether Beijing is an enemy to confront or a partner it ultimately cannot live without.