The potential deployment of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance
Air Blast Bomb, the largest non-nuclear bomb
in the US arsenal, would mark a significant escalation in the conflict,
although officials
familiar with military planning discussions told CNN questions remain over its effectiveness in achieving
Washington's strategic objectives.
Trump is facing pressure to bring an end to the deeply
unpopular war, as Republicans brace for potential political backlash from
voters in the upcoming midterm elections and there is little indication the two
countries are close to a negotiated resolution after more than six months of US
bombing.
While the US military continues to provide Trump with
options for potential strikes against outstanding Iranian targets, some
officials continue to privately question whether the White House has a strategy
that incorporates those plans in a way that could actually end the war.
For months, Trump and his advisers have discussed options that
could act as a “definitive” end to the war, aware of how unpopular the conflict
has become among Americans.
While some administration figures have characterized the war
as essentially won, Trump has been more guarded in recent remarks, stopping
short of declaring victory and saying the US still has unfinished business in
the country.
Behind the scenes, Trump has also cast doubt on some outside
allies who have encouraged him to simply bring US troops home and move on.
Doing so, Trump has argued, would look like defeat.
Over the course of the last several weeks, White House
advisers have held meetings to discuss various options for Iran. While Trump
announced publicly that he would not take new actions before the midterms,
several advisers said privately they didn’t know whether that statement was
definitive or could change before election day.
Trump has ordered the military to develop additional strike
packages against Iranian targets that include “a lot of energy infrastructure”
and the potential use of a MOAB, one of the sources told CNN.
The phrasing used was that this attack would come “prior to
US retrograde in CENTCOM AOR (area of responsibility),” indicating the
administration could launch the additional strikes, attempt to declare victory
and quickly pull everyone out.
A second source said military plans for striking Iranian
nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, also explicitly call for using the
MOAB. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Pickaxe, where
the US and Israel believe Tehran has stored components of its nuclear program,
even after pausing full combat operations earlier this year, and Trump
continues to emphasize that his goal is to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear
weapon.
Another US official noted that when the military plans, it
develops a menu of options for policymakers that range from the high-end to
low-end. Higher-end targets, including those that are located deep underground,
require bigger bombs, and the MOAB is the biggest.
But there are questions around whether the MOAB would be an
effective munition to use against Iran’s nuclear facilities and other sites
that are located deep underground. While the GPS-guided bomb is capable of
destroying an area equivalent to nine city blocks, it likely lacks the
capability to penetrate deep enough under the surface to destroy the suspected
nuclear facilities at Pickaxe, which is believed to be fortified by layers of
granite, and other remaining Iranian nuclear sites.
Many within the administration as well as outside analysts
agree that the only way to decisively defeat Iran would be through a major
operation involving ground troops, a commitment that could potentially cost
thousands of American lives. The Pentagon considers all scenarios, so those
plans exist, but as of now no one in the administration is arguing for such
drastic action.
Trump
has indicated he has little interest in putting US boots on the ground in Iran
but his desire to end the conflict as soon as possible presents a political
dilemma for a president who is keenly aware of how unpopular the war has become
yet has been unable to secure a diplomatic agreement that would bring it to a
close.
Top Trump administration officials and military planners
have been focused, for weeks, on finding an off-ramp that gives Trump a
“symbolic” win — at minimum — he can try to sell to the American people without
preventing a potential diplomatic breakthrough, starting with an agreement to
reopen the Strait of Hormuz, CNN has reported.
A fourth source familiar with the Pentagon’s recent planning
discussions on Iran told CNN that military officials had developed some options
that would amount to a “fireworks show,” with the goal of providing Trump an
off-ramp from the conflict even if those strikes fail to accomplish his stated
goals for starting the war in the first place.
And despite Trump’s recent pledge to hold off on launching
additional strikes before the midterms, the US military already appears to be
preparing for potential Iranian retaliation should the president give the
go-ahead.
The next turnover of US troops deployed to CENTCOM is also
expected to take place within the next few weeks, a US official who
acknowledged it is possible some of the personnel who rotate out of the region,
may not be replaced by fresh service members.
