The latest
agreement allowing Russian diesel supplies to global markets, accompanied by
temporary sanctions relief, offers a telling example. After years of seeking to
constrain Moscow over its war in Ukraine, Washington has turned to Russia to
ease fuel-market pressures exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. The move
highlights the limits of economic sanctions when geopolitical ambitions collide
with domestic necessities.
The
US-Israel war on Iran presents an even greater strategic challenge. Despite
months of intensive bombing and the reported killing of Iran's supreme leader,
Washington has not secured a decisive outcome. Iran's continued resistance and
its ability to disrupt regional energy infrastructure demonstrate that superior
firepower does not automatically translate into political submission.
The
withdrawal of US forces from Iraq after more than two decades further
complicates Washington's regional legacy. Although, the departure follows an
earlier agreement and can be presented as a change in military strategy, Iran
and its allies have celebrated it as a victory. Concerns about Tehran's
expanding influence underline the difficulty Washington has faced in shaping
Iraq's political and security landscape.
Saudi
Arabia's experience raises equally uncomfortable questions. Despite its
longstanding security partnership with Washington, the kingdom has suffered
attacks on critical infrastructure, including Riyadh's airport and major energy
facilities. Washington's reluctance to provide the direct military intervention
Riyadh sought has fuelled doubts about the practical limits of American
security guarantees.
Meanwhile,
China and Russia are exploiting the shifting strategic environment to expand
their influence. Their growing engagement with regional governments does not
mean that either can replace America's entire security role, but it gives
Middle Eastern states greater room to diversify their partnerships.
The central
issue is no longer whether America possesses formidable power; it clearly does.
The question is whether that power can deliver the political outcomes
Washington seeks. A superpower's standing depends not only on its capacity to
wage war, but also on its ability to achieve objectives, protect partners and
sustain international confidence. If these shortcomings persist, America's
global leadership will face an increasingly difficult test.
