Palestinians or “persona non-grata”

On May 31, 2025 we posted a blog, its title was, why genocide in Gaza can’t be stopped? https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2025/05/why-genocide-in-gaza-cant-be-stopped.html. The response was encouraging but we failed in arriving at any conclusion. The message in between the lines is, Palestinians have become persona non-grata. No country is willing to accept them as citizens, give them a place to live and offer them job opportunities.

It is on records that Palestinians have been living in refugee camps for over seven decades—since 1948—due to a combination of war, displacement, lack of resolution, and denial of return. Here's a clear explanation of why this prolonged displacement continues:

The Nakba of 1948

The tragic story started in 1948, during the first Arab-Israeli war following the creation of Israel, around 750,000 Palestinians were expelled or fled from their homes. More than 400 Palestinian villages were destroyed. This mass displacement is known as the Nakba (Arabic for "catastrophe").

Denial of Right of Return

The UN General Assembly Resolution 194 of 1948 called for Palestinian refugees to be allowed to return to their homes or receive compensation. Israel has consistently refused to allow them to return, fearing it would threaten the Jewish majority and character of the state.

No Political Solution

Multiple peace talks and UN resolutions have failed to resolve the refugee issue. The right of return remains a core demand of Palestinians and a red line for Israel, making it a major unresolved issue in all negotiations.

Generational Refugees

Refugee status is inherited under the mandate of UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency). Today, there are nearly 6 million registered Palestinian refugees, many of whom were born in camps and have never seen Palestine. They live in camps in Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.

Policies of Host Countries

In countries like Lebanon and Syria, Palestinians are often denied citizenship and basic rights (work, property ownership). These restrictions force many to remain in refugee camps, even as they become semi-permanent urban areas.

Gaza and West Bank Camps

Even within Palestine (Gaza and West Bank), there are camps, because the refugees cannot return to their original homes in what is now Israel. These camps often suffer from poverty, overcrowding, and lack of infrastructure.

Ongoing Conflicts

Wars and Israeli occupation (1967 and beyond) have worsened the situation, adding more waves of displacement. Blockades, settlements, and military operations have made return or resettlement even more difficult.

Moral of story

Palestinians live in refugee camps for decades not because they want to, but because: 1) they were expelled in 1948, 2) denied the right to return, 3) trapped in legal limbo without full rights in host countries, and 4) and failed international diplomacy to resolve their plight. Until there's a just political solution addressing their rights—including the right of return or fair compensation—the refugee situation is unlikely to be resolved.

BRICS leaders gather at Rio de Janeiro

According to Reuters, leaders of the growing BRICS group of developing nations were set to gather in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, calling for reform of traditional Western institutions while presenting the bloc as a defender of multilateralism in an increasingly fractured world.

With forums such as the G7 and G20 groups of major economies hamstrung by divisions and the disruptive "America First" approach of US President Donald Trump, expansion of the BRICS has opened new space for diplomatic coordination.

"In the face of the resurgence of protectionism, it is up to emerging nations to defend the multilateral trade regime and reform the international financial architecture," Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told a BRICS business forum on Saturday.

BRICS nations now represent over half the world's population and 40% of its economic output.

The BRICS group gathered leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China at its first summit in 2009. The bloc later added South Africa and last year included Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as full members. This is the first leaders' summit to include Indonesia.

"The vacuum left by others ends up being filled almost instantly by the BRICS," said a Brazilian diplomat who asked not to be named. Although the G7 still concentrates vast power, the source added, "It doesn't have the predominance it once did."

However, there are questions about the shared goals of an increasingly heterogenous BRICS group, which has grown to include regional rivals along with major emerging economies.

Stealing some thunder from this year's summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping chose to send his prime minister in his place. Russian President Vladimir Putin is attending online due to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.

Still, many heads of state will gather for discussions at Rio's Museum of Modern Art on Sunday and Monday, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Over 30 nations have expressed interest in participating in the BRICS, either as full members or partners.

Brazil, which also hosts the United Nations climate summit in November, has seized on both gatherings to highlight how seriously developing nations are tackling climate change, while Trump has slammed the brakes on US climate initiatives.

Both China and the UAE signaled in meetings with Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad in Rio that they plan to invest in a proposed Tropical Forests Forever Facility.

Expansion of the BRICS has added diplomatic weight to the gathering, which aspires to speak for developing nations across the Global South, strengthening calls for reforming global institutions such as the United Nations Security Council and the International Monetary Fund.

The growth of the bloc has also increased the challenges to reaching consensus on contentious geopolitical issues.

Ahead of the summit, negotiators struggled to find shared language for a joint statement about the bombardment of Gaza, the Israel-Iran conflict and a proposed reform of the Security Council.

To overcome differences among African nations regarding the continent's proposed representative to a reformed Security Council, the group agreed to endorse seats for Brazil and India while leaving open which country should represent Africa's interests, a person familiar with the talks told Reuters.

The BRICS will also continue their thinly veiled criticism of Trump's US tariff policy. At an April ministerial meeting, the bloc expressed concern about "unjustified unilateral protectionist measures, including the indiscriminate increase of reciprocal tariffs."

 

Saudi Arabia among world top donors

The Saudi Aid Platform has revealed that the total value of financial assistance provided by Saudi Arabia to around the world is amounted to approximately SR528.4 billion (US$140.9 billion), cementing the Kingdom's position as one of the largest donors globally.

The Saudi official platform revealed that Egypt topped the list of countries that benefited most from Saudi aid, with a total of US$32.49 billion, followed by Yemen with US$27.69 billion, and then Pakistan with US$13.19 billion. The list of countries that benefited the most also included Syria (US$7.53 billion) Iraq (US$7.33 billion) and Palestine (US$5.37 billion).

These figures reflect the Kingdom's commitment to its humanitarian and development role by supporting peoples and countries in confronting humanitarian crises and natural disasters, and achieving sustainable development.

These efforts are part of the realization of Saudi Vision 2030 goals that focus on strengthening international partnerships and establishing the Kingdom as a pillar of regional and international peace and stability, under the leadership of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman.

It is noteworthy that the Saudi Aid Platform is the precise electronic reference for the Kingdom's foreign contributions. The platform is divided into three categories: humanitarian, development and philanthropic projects, contributions to international organizations and bodies, and visitors’ services (refugees living inside the Kingdom).

The Saudi Aid Platform, inaugurated by King Salman in 2018, highlights the size and type of assistance provided by Saudi Arabia. The King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre (KSrelief) re-launched this platform.

Due to the multiplicity of Saudi donor entities, this platform has become an imperative and effective tool for collecting, coordinating and documenting statistics on international assistance provided by the Kingdom to countries and people in need around the world.

OPEC Plus will add 548,000 bpd in August

According to Reuters, OPEC Plus agreed on Saturday to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, further accelerating output increases at its first meeting since oil prices jumped - and then retreated - following Israeli and US attacks on Iran.

The group, which pumps about half of the world's oil, has been curtailing production since 2022 to support the market.

The group reversed course this year to regain market share and as US President Donald Trump demanded the group pump more to help keep gasoline prices lower.

The production boost will come from eight members of the group - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria.

The eight started to unwind their most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd in April.

The August increase represents a jump from monthly increases of 411,000 bpd OPEC Plus had approved for May, June and July, and 138,000 bpd in April.

OPEC Plus cited a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, including low oil inventories, as reasons for releasing more oil.

The acceleration came after some OPEC Plus members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq, produced above their targets, angering other members that were sticking to cuts, sources have said.

Kazakh output returned to growth last month and matched an all-time high.

With the August increase, OPEC Plus will have released 1.918 million bpd since April, which leaves just 280,000 bpd to be released from the 2.2 million bpd cut. On top of that, OPEC Plus allowed the UAE to increase output by 300,000 bpd.

The group still has in place other layers of cuts amounting to 3.66 million bpd. The group of eight OPEC Plus members will next meet on August 03.

 

 

Germany seeks agreement with Taliban to take back convicted Afghan migrants

Germany wants to negotiate a direct agreement with the Taliban to take back Afghan nationals set for deportation, according to Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, reports Euronews.

"My idea is that we make agreements directly with Afghanistan to enable repatriations," said in an interview with the news magazine, Focus.

"We still need third parties to conduct talks with Afghanistan. This cannot remain a permanent solution."

In August last year, Germany resumed flying convicted Afghan nationals back to Afghanistan after suspending deportations after the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

Berlin said those flights were facilitated with the support of "key regional partners". But now, Germany wants to do this directly in cooperation with the Taliban in Kabul.

In the interview, Dobrindt said Berlin is also in contact with Damascus in a bid to reach an agreement on the deportation of Syrian migrants convicted of crimes in Germany.

Dobrindt represents the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Merz has pledged to deport people to Syria and Afghanistan, as well as stop refugee admission programs for former local staff of German agencies in the latter.

The admission programs were set up after the Taliban takeover was said to be a direct threat to their lives due to possible retaliation.

Migration was a key issue as Germans headed to the polls to vote in February's snap federal elections following the rise of the far right and several high-profile attacks by migrants.

Syrians and Afghans make up the two largest groups of asylum seekers in Germany, with 76,765 Syrians and 34,149 Afghans applying for asylum last year, according to official figures.

On Friday, the United Nations criticized plans to strike a deal with the Taliban to return migrants to Afghanistan.

Ravina Shamdasani, spokesperson for the United Nations Human Rights Office, told reporters in Geneva it was "not appropriate to return people to Afghanistan."

"We have been documenting continuing human rights violations in Afghanistan," she said, highlighting severe restrictions on women's rights and executions.

Arafat Jamal of the UN's refugee agency (UNHCR) in Kabul said his organization still had a "non-return advisory" in place for Afghanistan.

"In other words ... the conditions on the ground are not yet ready for returns," he said. "We urge countries not to forcibly return to Afghanistan."

Germany does not recognize the Taliban government since its takeover in 2021 after NATO troops withdrew from the country and maintains no official diplomatic ties with Kabul.

On Friday, Russia became the first country in the world to formally recognize the Taliban government and establish full diplomatic links with Kabul.

Afghanistan's Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi stated that he hoped the move would serve as an example to other countries, but it was criticized by opposition figures and human rights groups.

PSX benchmark index closes at all-time high

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its bullish momentum throughout the week. The benchmark index closed the week at all-time high of 131,949 points on Friday, July 04, 2025.

Market participation increased as well, with average daily traded volumes increasing by 31.4%WoW to 967 million shares, up from 736 million shares a week ago.

Market participation improved due to increase in withholding tax (WHT) on profit/ interest from savings and fixed deposits to 20%, while it remained unchanged at 15% for equity investments in the recently approved Finance act, triggering a reallocation of funds, driving flows into the stock market.

Optimism was further supported by a strong external position amid Pakistan receiving a US$3.4 billion loan roll-over from China, in addition to finalizing another US$1.0 billion loan from a Middle Eastern commercial bank and US$500 million from multilateral financing.

These inflows spiked foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to US$14.5 billion by end-June 2025. The SBP was able to meet its goal of closing FY25 at the US$14 billion mark.

PKR remained stable against the greenback throughout the week, closing at PKR283.97/US$.

On the macroeconomic front, trade deficit for June 2025 was recorded at US$2.3 billion, taking FY25 trade deficit to US$26.3 billion, up 9%YoY.

Inflation for June 2025 was recorded at 3.2%YoY as compared to 3.5%YoY for May, taking FY25 inflation to 4.5%YoY.

Cement sales for FY25 were reported at 46.2 million tons, up 2%YoY, driven by higher exports.

OMC offtakes for FY25 grew to 16.3 million tons, up 7%YoY.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) SBP buys US$6.8 billion from market and 2) Aurangzeb advances strategic partnerships on sidelines of Fourth International Conference for Financing Development in Spain.

Commercial Banks, Textile Spinning, Insurance, and Miscellaneous, were amongst the top performing sectors, while Woollen, Jute, Glass & Ceramics, and Leasing Companies were amongst the worst performers.

Major buying of US$22.2 million was recorded by Mutual Funds. Foreigners were net seller during the week, with a net sell of US$15.3 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: GADT, AICL, and FABL, while laggards included:  BNWM, GHGL, and PGLC.

According to AKD Securities, the market is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with forward inflation for FY26 projected at 4.4%YoY, indicating substantial room for monetary easing, which would serve as a catalyst for equities.

The benchmark index is anticipated to remain on upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

The top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPEC Plus likely to accelerate oil output hike

OPEC Plus is likely to announce an increase in oil output for August at its meeting on Saturday, July 05, 2025. It will be larger than the 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) hikes announced in May, June and July, reports Reuters.

Oil futures slipped slightly due to US Independence Day holiday on Friday, as the market looked ahead to this weekend's OPEC Plus meeting and the likelihood that member countries will decide to raise output. Brent crude futures settled down at US$68.30 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate declined US$66.50 at 1700 GMT.

Eight members of the group - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria - are scheduled to meet online on Saturday to decide their oil output policy for August.

OPEC Plus made a radical change in policy this year when the eight members started to unwind their most recent output cut of 2.2 million bpd starting in April. They then accelerated the hikes in May, June and July to 411,000 bpd for each month, despite the extra supply weighing on crude prices.

Earlier on Friday, other sources told Reuters the group was expected to agree to an increase of 411,000 bpd for August, which remains a possible outcome of Saturday's meeting.

The total number of active drilling rigs in the US has been on the decline, reaching its lowest level since late 2021 in June 2025, driven by lower oil prices, a focus on shareholder returns over production increases, and strategic shifts within the energy sector. As of early July 2025, the total US rig count was reported at approximately 539, down from 547 the previous week and 581 a year ago, with oil rigs seeing the most significant decrease.

The acceleration of the output hikes came after some OPEC Plus members, such as Kazakhstan, produced way over their targets, angering other members that were sticking more closely to agreed cuts.

Kazakh output returned to growth last month and matched an all-time high, as the Chevron-led Tengiz field ramped up.

OPEC Plus, comprising of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is looking to expand its market share against the backdrop of growing supplies from other producers like the United States.

The group pumps about half of the world's oil. As of their decision for July output, the OPEC Plus eight have made or announced production increases of 1.37 million bpd. This is 62% of the production cut of 2.2 million bpd that they are unwinding.