Iran has no regional proxies, says envoy

The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations disavowed claims leveled by the Israeli regime that Tehran has regional proxies by which it makes operations in the region, adding that such allegations are made to obscure and justify the Zionist regime’s acts of aggression and destabilizing measures.

In a letter to President of the UN Security Council Pedro Comissario Afonso and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres dated May 07, 2024 Saeed Iravani categorically rejected the allegations that the representative of the Israeli regime has made against Iran.

The full text of the letter from Iravani is as follows:

I am writing to you in response to the letter dated April 19, 2024 from the representative of the Israeli regime to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council (S/2024/324), wherein the representative of the Israeli regime resorted once more to lies and misinformation to make unfounded accusations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Further to our letters dated April 13 and 30, (S/2024/305-S/2024/349), I would like to emphasize the following:

The Islamic Republic of Iran rejects unequivocally and strongly all unfounded accusations in the aforementioned letter.

Contrary to unfounded claims, Iran has consistently upheld international law, adhered to the principles of the UN Charter, and complied with UN Security Council resolutions.

Moreover, Iran has played an active role in promoting international peace and security through its constructive involvement across multiple spheres.

In the letters dated April 13 and 30 (S/2024/305-S/2024/349), the Islamic Republic of Iran made a clear position that the action taken on April 13, was conducted directly and officially from Iran in response to the Israeli recurring military aggressions, particularly its armed attack on April 01 against Iranian diplomatic premises in Damascus, the Syrian Arab Republic.

Iran’s action was necessary, legitimate, and fully in line with its inherent right to self-defense under the UN Charter.

The action only targeted military objectives and was carried out carefully and with prior notification to prevent civilian harm.

I wish to emphasize that no resistance groups were involved in Iran's legitimate action and any assertions to the contrary are rejected.

In contrast to Israel's assertions, Iran does not have proxies in the region, and no individual, group, or nation operates under Iran's directive.

Additionally, resistance groups are not proxies; they are legitimate groups and their actions are lawful, and engaged only in fighting against Israeli occupation and aggression in Gaza and other occupied territories in Palestine, as well as against occupied forces in other nations in the region.

Israel's attempt to label them as "proxies" is only to obscure and justify its own acts of aggression and destabilizing actions in the region.

It is indisputable that the Israeli regime, characterized by a long history and record of blatant violations of international law, the UN Charter, and UNSC resolutions, remains the primary and longstanding threat to international peace and security.

Any cynical attempt by this regime to obscure this reality through disinformation, smear campaigns, or unsubstantiated accusations against others is both futile and groundless. The Israeli regime cannot deny its direct and full responsibility for the ongoing massacre and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza in defiance of UNSC resolutions.

An obvious example of the Israeli regime's persistent disregard for UNSC resolutions is exemplified in the Security Council’s resolution 2728 (2024), which urgently demands an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Despite clear demands from the Security Council, the occupying regime persists in its ruthless warfare against the Palestinian people and its military attacks in Rafah in blatant contempt for the Security Council's demands.

The occupying regime must finally bear full responsibility for the consequences of its actions and the Security Council must address Israel's persistent destabilizing and irresponsible actions, as well as its atrocities against the Palestinian people and other nations in the region.

These actions pose a genuine threat to both regional and international peace and security, demanding immediate attention and decisive action from the Security Council.

I wish to take this opportunity to strongly condemn and unequivocally reject the baseless accusations and inflammatory rhetoric statements made by the Israeli regime’s representative against my Country and Iranian high-ranking officials during the UN General Assembly debate held on May 01, addressing the United States veto of the Security Council draft resolution on the State of Palestine's full membership in the United Nations.

The aim of such baseless allegations and hate speech as well as blaming the UN and its officials is merely an attempt to divert international attention away from the ongoing heinous atrocities and acts of genocide perpetrated by this apartheid regime against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

US Indo-Pacific foreign security policy

According to Nikkei Asia, an emerging quadrilateral group, between the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, has become the core of Washington's foreign security policy in the Indo-Pacific, quickly overtaking the Quad in priority.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a series of meetings in Hawaii with his counterparts from the three countries last Thursday to set an "ambitious course" for peace, stability and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The four-way alliance has reportedly been nicknamed the "Squad" by Pentagon officials.

The four nations have held maritime military drills in April and are expected to hold more later this year.

Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the Quad, a gathering of the US, Japan, India and Australia, has "an appearance of slippage" due to scheduling problems caused by the elections in India, an upcoming one in the U.S., and the wars in Europe and the Middle East.

But Tellis said these developments have put the role of the Quad in perspective.

"Where balancing China is concerned, the Quad is only one arrow among many in the US quiver," he said. "It has its greatest value in peacetime.

"In militarized crises and conflict with China, the minilaterals like AUKUS and the 'Squad', and most importantly, the US-Japan alliance will prove to be far more important than the Quad," he said.

"That is not to denigrate the Quad. It is simply underscoring a strategic fact of life," the former special assistant to President George W. Bush added.

Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of the Observer Research Foundation America, said the newfound attention on the Squad grouping comes at a time when China has fired water cannons at Philippine supply ships in the South China Sea to prevent delivery of construction materials to the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal to bolster Manila's sovereignty.

"That's really where China's applying the greatest pressure at this time, even more than Taiwan, and it's really a test of the US alliance," Jaishankar said.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson has previously said the water cannon firings were a response to the ships intruding "without China's permission" and a "serious infringement" on Chinese sovereignty

New Delhi had hoped to convene a Quad summit earlier in the year, to coincide with a possible visit by US President Joe Biden visit to India in January, but the US leader was unable to make it citing a tight schedule.

India also explored a Quad summit before the Indian elections that began on April 19, according to Jaishankar. That too was thwarted by Biden's March 07 State of the Union address and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishdia's state-level visit to the US on April 10.

"Clearly the triangle of the US, Japan and Australia is far more important," said Kent Calder, director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, adding that "a series of strategic triangles (including the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and the US, Japan and Philippines) are really the core of US foreign policy now."

The professor noted that all of these strategic triangles have clear functional purposes. The Biden administration is "too busy for more talk shops," he said. "The Quad under current circumstances does have that problem."

But Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said the Squad is not a "replacement" for the Quad and should rather be seen as a supplement.

"India is an important part of the US Indo-Pacific strategy. It's a critical part," she said.

"In the event that there's any kind of conflict or crisis, either in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, India will play a critical role in keeping an eye on the Indian Ocean region and the Malacca Strait," she said.

The difference between the Quad and the Squad is the presence of the word "deterrence." Despite its formal name of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the Quad has stayed away from security issues.

Joint statements issued after the past three Quad leaders summits have included references of "peace" and "stability" of the region but has never spoken about deterrence.

This is out of consideration for India, who has had a tradition of non-alignment, more recently known as strategic autonomy.

 

RIC search for a new global security order

The key question is, how will Russia–Iran–China (RIC), as BRICS leaders, SCO members, and simultaneously top three “existential threats” to the Hegemon, be able to start implementing a new global security architecture without staring down the genocidals. 

The Hegemon has no idea what awaits the Exceptionalist mindset, China has started to decisively stir the civilizational cauldron without bothering about an inevitable array of sanctions coming by early 2025 and/or a possible collapse of the international financial system. 

Last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his list of delusional US demands was welcomed in Beijing by Foreign Minister Wang Yi and President Xi Jinping as little more than an annoying gnat.

Wang, on the record, stressed that Tehran was justified in defending itself against Israel’s shredding of the Vienna Convention when it attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus. 

At the UN Security Council, China now openly questions not only the state terror attack on the Nord Streams but also the US–Israel combo’s blocking of Palestinian statehood. Moreover, Beijing, just like Moscow recently, hosts Palestine’s political factions together in a conference aiming to unify their positions.   

Only two days before Moscow celebrates Victory Day, the end of the Great Patriotic War, Xi will land in Belgrade to remind the whole world about the 25th anniversary of the bombing of the Chinese embassy by the US, UK, and NATO. 

Russia, meanwhile, provided a platform for the UNRWA – the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees, which Israel has sought to defund – to explain to high representatives of BRICS-10 the cataclysmic humanitarian situation in Gaza, as described by UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini. 

In short, serious political business is already being conducted outside of the corrupted UN system, as the United Nations disintegrates into a corporate shell with the US dictating all terms as the largest shareholder. 

Russian Security Council chairman Nikolai Patrushev met in St. Petersburg with his Chinese counterpart Chen Wenqing on the sidelines of the 12th International Security Summit, congregating over 100 nations, including the security heads of BRICS-10 members Iran, India, Brazil, and South Africa, as well as Iraq. 

The key crossroads these past few days was the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) defense summit in Astana,

For the first time, the new Chinese Defense Minister, Dong Jun, met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, to emphasize their comprehensive strategic partnership. 

Dong, significantly, stressed the “dynamic” nature of China–Russia military interaction, while Shoigu doubled down, saying it “sets a model for interstate relations” based on mutual respect and shared strategic interests. 

Addressing the full SCO assembly, Shoigu emphatically refuted the massive western propaganda drive about a Russian “threat” to NATO. 

Everybody was at the SCO defense ministers’ meeting – including, at the same table, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Belarus as an observer. Minsk is eager to join the SCO. 

The interlocking Russia–Iran–China strategic partnerships were totally in sync. Apart from Dong meeting Shoigu, he also met Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, who lavishly praised Beijing’s condemnation of the Israeli terror air strike in Damascus. 

What is happening now between Beijing and Tehran is a replay of what started last year between Moscow and Tehran, when a member of the Iranian delegation on a visit to Russia remarked that both parties had agreed on a mutual, high-level “anything you need” relationship.  

In Astana, Dong’s support for Iran was unmistakable. Not only did he invite Ashtiani to a security conference in Beijing, mirroring the Iranian position, he also called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the delivery of humanitarian aid.   

Shoigu, meeting with Ashtiani, provided extra context when he recalled that “the joint fight against international terrorism in Syria is a vivid example of our long-standing friendly relations.” The Russian defense minister then delivered his clincher: 

The current military-political situation and threats to our states oblige us … to common approaches to building a just world order based on equality for all participants in the international community.

Establishing a new global security order is right at the heart of BRICS-10 planning – on par with the de-dollarization debate. All of this is anathema to the collective west, which is incapable of understanding the multifaceted, intertwined Russia, Iran, and China partnerships.   

And the interaction goes on in person. Russian President Vladimir Putin will be visiting Beijing later this month. On Gaza, the Russia–Iran–China position is in complete sync: Israel is committing genocide. For the EU – and NATOstan as a whole – this is not genocide: the bloc supports Israel no matter what.

After Iran, on April 13, changed the game in West Asia for good, without even using their finest hypersonic missiles, the key question for the Global Majority is stark: in the end, who will restrain the genocidals, and how? Diplomatic sources hint this will be discussed face-to-face by Putin and Xi. 

This time, the barbarians are facing a 5,000-year continuing written civilization, armed with Sun Tzu’s Art of War, Mao thought, Xi’s dual circulation strategy, Belt and Road, BRICS, renminbi digitalization, Russia and China unlimited, the world’s most powerful manufacturing industry, tech supremacy, economic powerhouse, and the backing of the Global South.

US threats of a “clear choice” between ending several key strands of the Russia–China strategic partnership or facing a sanctions tsunami don’t cut it in Beijing. The same applies to Washington’s wishful attempts at preventing BRICS members from ditching the US dollar. 

Yaroslav Lisovolik, founder of BRICS+ Analytics, dismisses the Hegemon’s threats against BRICS as the road map toward an alternative payment system is still in its infancy. As for Russia–China trade, the non-dollar high-speed train has already left the station. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has made it quite clear that Moscow and Beijing have nearly reached the point of abandoning the US dollar in bilateral trade. And the outright theft of Russian assets by the collective west is the ultimate red line for BRICS – and all other nations watching with horror – as a whole, this is definitely a “non-agreement capable” Empire, as Lavrov has been emphasizing since late 2021.

Courtesy: Information Clearing House

Iran Oil Show 2024 opens today

Despite all the propaganda against Iran oil industry's international successes and its energy diplomacy approach, the growing number of foreign oil companies’ presence at the 28th Oil Show is a clear sign of rising trust in Iran’s oil industry.

Director of the 28th Iran International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition, known as Iran’s Oil Show 2024, Gholamreza Jamali, made the remarks during a press conference on May 06 in Tehran adding the exhibition opens its doors to the public on May 08.

Jamali said that 1750 oil industry related companies, including 250 foreign companies from 12 countries including Russia, China, Germany, France, Japan, Belarus, India, Canada, Italy, Turkey, Austria and Argentina shows that Iran’s oil show is not only one of the largest oil exhibitions at home but also in the West Asia region.

The great achievements of Iran’s oil industry over the last two years, is due to the support of the Minister of Petroleum, Jamali said at the press conference.

A number of companies failed to take part in this year’s oil exhibition mainly due to lack of appropriate infrastructures expressing hope improvement in the facilities to provide proper conditions for participation of all companies in the next rounds of oil exhibitions.

Elsewhere in his remarks he said, a number of world high-ranking officials have been invited to participate at the opening ceremony of the exhibition.

According to him, while during last year’s oil exhibition, just 2 thousand square meters had been allocated to accommodate foreign companies, this space has been expanded this year so that the foreign companies’ exclusive space reaches 5 thousand square meters.

 As far as it concerns allocating spaces, the organizers have decided to pay attention to the arrangement based on upstream, midstream and downstream activities and the halls and booths locations are somehow related to the subject of value chain in the oil industry

In order to support the technological innovations in the oil industry, an especial space has been allocated to the knowledge-based companies, technological companies, universities and start-ups, he also said.

Pointing out that numerous side events that will be held on the sidelines of the exhibition, the director of the Tehran Oil Show 2024 announced that many of these events would lead to the signing of contracts and memorandums of understanding in the oil industry, resulting in boosting production with economic results.

Jamali noted that providing appropriate conditions for direct connection between private and public sector activists is one of the main functions of the oil exhibition every year, which often faces some obstacles over the year due to the existence of administrative bureaucracy.

Announcing the slogan of this year's oil exhibition as "Oil industry, production leap, technological optimization", he said, "At this year’s exhibition we will reveal some equipment for the first time which is very important in view of meeting domestic needs and exporting to other countries."

The International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition as the main and most important oil event in Iran is held annually by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) with the support of the Petroleum Ministry.

The Petroleum Ministry’s subsidiaries including the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) and the National Petrochemical Company (NPC) have an active presence in the event.

Iran Oil Show 2024 is being held from May 08 to May 11 at Tehran International Permanent Fairground.

Netanyahu wants unabated killing of Gazans

Israeli prime minister, more focused on saving his incompetent far-right government than saving the hostages who have spent seven months trapped in Gaza, is doing everything he can to torpedo Israel’s last and best chance at bringing the hostages home.

Minister Benny Gantz reiterated that with or without a temporary pause in the fighting for the release of our hostages, we will enter Rafah and eliminate the remaining Hamas battalions.

Later, before the end of Shabbat, Netanyahu sent another message, in which he denied reports saying Israel had agreed to a cease-fire as part of a deal.

Gantz hit the nail on the head this time. Netanyahu is fleeing from a hostage deal. The closer it gets, the faster he runs to avoid it. At least twice in recent months he has sabotaged the sensitive moves toward a deal, whether through public statements or covert messages, or by curbing the mandate of the negotiating team. It was no different this time.

What was the point of these statements, before Hamas had even responded to the proposal, if not to thwart and sabotage.

It is not the 33 hostages who might be released – the sick, the injured, the old; women, including female soldiers – who are uppermost in his thoughts, but rather the 64 Knesset members of his coalition and above all, himself, the head of the government of failure and the October 07 massacre, the criminal defendant, the leader who has lost his people’s trust, the politician whose promises of “total victory” in Gaza if we can only eliminate the four remaining Hamas battalions are dismissed by an overwhelming majority of Israelis, including rightists.

Netanyahu had hoped that the Egyptian proposal, which was more far-reaching than anything he had been willing to accept in the past, would be rejected by Hamas. Over the weekend, when the negotiations took a positive turn, Netanyahu found himself in distress, as was expressed by his flurry of statements. Given the familiarity with his family environment, including his pampered son on the front in Miami, his fright is indeed understandable.

If Hamas says “yes” and even if it adds a “but” in one form or another, Netanyahu will have no choice but to carry through what he agreed with Egypt and the United States. Doing so could lead his Kahanist right flank to bring down the government.

If his attempts at sabotage succeed, the National Union could pull out of the government and its leaders, who still have the trust of a large section of the public, would join the growing calls for early elections.

Is it any wonder he is hysterical? His other options aren’t promising either. If the deal doesn’t go through, he is already committed to ordering the IDF to begin an operation in Rafah. That would cause trouble with the Egyptians and Americans.

And if he does opt for an operation in Rafah, then what kind of operation? An intense, broad campaign of the kind the IDF waged in Khan Yunis and Gaza City will be the final straw that will make Israel an outcast and lead to Netanyahu being accused of war crimes. A ‘feeble’ operation will make him a regional and global joke.

Netanyahu’s well known conduct showed itself vis-a-vis the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which is considering issuing arrest warrants against him (and other senior government and IDF officials). Instead of taking discreet action through diplomatic channels, Netanyahu lashed out at the court, threatening and cursing it, contrary to all the legal advice he received. The court ended up putting out an extraordinary statement over the weekend in which it rejected the threats and scare tactics.

One may ask, what leads Netanyahu to shoot himself in the foot over and again. The answer is connected to his psyche. His default is to exercise force. Just as he applied force in the dealings with the judicial system, the State Prosecutor’s Office and the attorney general before charges were filed against him, he is doing the same thing now with an international legal forum.

Pressure, incitement and threats didn’t prevent an indictment being filed against him. Neither will they prevent arrest warrants being issued – if the ongoing inquiry comes to the conclusion that they should be issued.

Netanyahu has mot learnt any lesson, he doesn’t draw conclusions. His flawed personality, his temper tantrums, his submission to his wife and his son’s craziness, drag him into humiliation every time, and humiliates the country that has the misfortune to have Netanyahu as its leader.

The total failure who sits in the Prime Minister’s Office has succeeded over the past 211 days in leading Israel out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Even right now, he and his wife are dealing with what’s really important: The Independence Day torch-lighting ceremony. Miri Regev, the minister for duplicity and flattery who has appropriated the ceremony for herself has managed to cross Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, one of the family’s lead courtesans and eunuchs, who was appointed to all his positions thanks to his close ties with Netanyahu’s son Yair.

This too, it turns out, is not enough, when what is at stake is the ceremony that is the prized possession of he who fears (justifiably so) the rage of Israelis who have had enough of him.

He announced that he would stay away from the Israel Prize and Bible Quiz ceremonies. When it comes to the torch lighting ceremony, which will be held without an audience – for the same reason – the diplomatic official will send a selfie propaganda reel.

 Courtesy: Information Clearing House

Russian oil exports growing despite sanctions

Russian oil export revenues surged to US$17.2 billion in March 2024, driven by higher global oil prices and increased crude export volumes, according to the April ‘Russian Oil Tracker’ by KSE Institute.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price cap.

Russian seaborne oil exports rose by 4% in March, driven by a 12% increase in crude oil shipment to more than 400,000 barrels per day, while exports of oil products declined by 6%. Notably, India saw a 3% increase in Russian crude imports to 1,445,000 barrels per day, maintaining its position as the top importer of Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, Turkey has been meeting around two-thirds of its oil demand through Russian oil products imports, with total imports exceeding 800,000 barrels per day since November 2023.

However, only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet. It was responsible for exports of 2.8 million barrels per day of crude and 1.1 million barrel per day of oil products in March.

Specifically, 223 loaded non-IG-insured tankers left Russian ports, with 2 engaged in STS transfers in March 2024. With 85% of these tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened—a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay.

The US Treasury’s strategy of designating individual vessels effectively removes shadow tankers from regular commercial service. As of April 12, 2024, out of 41 sanctioned vessels, 37 were unloaded and not scheduled for further voyages, while 3 were completing their current voyages in line with the OFAC authorization.

One vessel provides coastal shuttle services violating OFAC’s sanctions but only within the Black Sea. On April 04, OFAC also sanctioned Oceanlink Maritime Dmcc and its 13 tankers for its ties with Iran but 7 of these 13 tankers also shipped Russian crude without IG P&I insurance.

Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. Nine of them were directly involved in loading Iranian oil in Iran or through STS operations in 2021-2023, as per Kpler.

Russia also continues to evade shadow fleet sanctions by transferring sanctioned tankers to new entities. For instance, when four UAE-registered shipping companies, sanctioned by the UK, passed tankers to other Emirati firms, they continued commercial operations under new management. Similarly, Stream Ship Management Fzco became the top shipper of Russian crude oil after acquiring tankers previously managed by Oil Tankers Scf Mgmt Fzc, sanctioned by the OFAC.

UAE, Chinese and Greek ship managers have played a leading role in transporting Russian crude. In March 2024, eight of the top ten shippers of Russian crude were registered in the UAE or China.

As for Russian oil products exports, Greek companies dominated the top shippers, although Modern Gemi Isletmeciligi As (Turkey) and Oil Tankers Scf Mgmt Fzco (UAE) led the list in March.

KSE Institute projects Russian oil revenues to reach US$175 billion and US$152 billion in 2024 and 2025 under the base case with current oil price caps and stronger sanctions enforcement. However, if sanctions enforcement is weak, Russian oil revenues could increase, reaching US$206 billion in 2024 and US$195 billion in 2025.

The Q4 2023 data suggest that problems with price cap implementation and enforcement are much bigger than previously expected. To ensure that sanctions continue to constrain Russia’s ability to wage its war of aggression on Ukraine—and that their credibility is maintained—additional steps urgently need to be taken. Below, we outline three critical measures that can quickly and effectively address Russian effort to evade sanctions on its oil exports.

1. G7/EU countries should ensure that their authorities have sufficient proof of compliance with the price cap, including by: a) leveraging the involvement of G7/EU financial institutions in the Russian oil trade and their knowledge of key transaction details such as prices; b) requiring attestations to be provided by reputable entities defined via transparent criteria and subject to sanctions in the case of violations or their facilitation; and/or c) stepping-up of documentary evidence requirements for G7/EU service providers under the current system (including original sales contracts, etc.).

2. EU coastal states should leverage geographical “choke points” to limit Russia’s use of a “shadow fleet” of tankers by requiring proper spill insurance for vessels’ passage through their territorial waters, including in the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean. This would force Russia to rely once again on G7/EU services for a substantial share of its exports and also help address environmental risks that have emerged due to the increasing use of old and under-insured tankers. For this purpose, a system to allow for timely and efficient verification of insurance information should be established.

3. Price cap coalition countries should step up penalties on entities that violate the price cap. For G7/EU companies, this should include tougher monetary penalties and expanded lockout periods. For third-country actors, price cap coalition countries should impose “direct” sanctions (e.g., SDN listing in the United States or use of the European Union’s anti-circumvention tool established in the 11th package) and consider the application of extraterritorial (“secondary”) sanctions, leveraging the continued critical importance of its financial system for internationally operating businesses.

 

Iranian drones fascinate many countries

Military analysts and experts in the West have invariably emphasized that Iranian drones have proven their effectiveness in real battlefields and, as a result, have been met with great interest from many countries.

The military analytical platform “Breaking Defense,” in a recent report, evaluated one of the global consequences of the missile and drone Operation True Promise and stated that despite the extensive cooperation of several countries alongside Israel with Tehran’s launched weapons, the global interest in Iranian drones is not diminishing, and analysts say there is a highly enthusiastic market worldwide for accessing and purchasing relatively cheap and efficient Iranian drones.

The report’s author added that perhaps Israel and its allies were able to deal with the large number of 300 drones and missiles that Iran launched in its unprecedented attack on Israel, but according to analysts, this has not deterred potential customers of Tehran’s unmanned aerial vehicles.

Fabian Heinz, a defense and military researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that most countries, interested in Iranian drones, want to use them against powerful enemies such as the United States and Israel. 

For these countries, the advanced capabilities of enemies such as the United States in tracking these weapons are not so concerning. Iranian offensive drones have proven their effectiveness well.

Samuel Bendett, an artificial intelligence and unmanned systems expert at the CNA Institute in Washington, also stated that Israel’s opposition will not have an impact on Iran’s sales market, especially to countries seeking to adopt a politically and militarily independent approach from the West.

The report, with details of the number and types of drones and missiles used by Iran, claimed that Iran launched 170 Shahed 131 and 136 drones, along with over 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles towards targets in Israel. 

According to the analysis, in recent years, the Shahed drone family has attracted widespread attention worldwide due to successful use in several operational scenarios, with the most prominent display being in Ukraine.

Jean-Marc Rickli, the head of global risk and resilience at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), also claimed to Breaking Defense that Ukraine provided a powerful showcase for the Shahed drones, even if these drones failed in the attack on Israel, they proved that they impose a significant cost on the adversary.

He also stated that the use of expensive missiles to destroy these inexpensive drones incurs a high cost, and more importantly, it eliminates the defender’s capabilities. In the case of Israel, the interception of drones costed more than the drones themselves.

He also pointed out that the calculation has made Iranian drones attractive to many international buyers, adding that the potential market for Iran includes countries that are sanctioned by the West or have no fear of sanctions and are not willing to accept Western conditions when selling weapons.

According to this report, interest in purchasing Iranian drones has increased even more after extensive debates and denials about Russia’s use of these aircraft against Ukraine. 

Several months later, a senior Iranian official announced that 22 countries have expressed interest in buying Iranian-made drones. Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Defense Minister, also claimed in February that 50 countries are negotiating with Tehran to purchase missiles and drones from the country.

Even an analyst from FDD said, “Iranian drones are now present in operational theaters on four continents: Asia, Africa, Europe, and South America.”

The report also mentioned Iran’s competitors in the drone market and added that analysts consider Iranian drones a cost-effective solution. Despite China leading in drone exports, experts say that Iran goes beyond Beijing and has few competitors in its niche market.

It was also emphasized that Iran has proven efficiency in high-altitude, combat, and suicide drones. While there are indeed some companies in this market, but Iran does stand out.

According to the abovementioned analysis, many experts were taken aback when they first encountered reports of Russia’s dependence on Iranian drones.

Last year, Brigadier General Talaei-Nick, the Deputy Defense Minister, said that there are some European countries willing to purchase Iranian drones, pointing to the requests sent to Iran for its drones. 

The general said that some locally-made defense products are for sale, adding that in case Iran is sure that drones would not be used inappropriately, the country is ready to export some of its drones, considering the domestic needs and the capacity of the production. 

On purchasing weapons, he said domestic products are prioritized, but in cases when foreign supplies are needed to meet the needs, especially in the field of air combat, the country will move according to its needs. 

The general said the type of equipment that is needed should be evaluated in comparison with its domestic ones and similar ones in other countries.

Moreover, he said, it should be confirmed in terms of price and quality by authorities and that buying weapons from abroad is a long-term process. 

General Talaei Nik also pointed to the training process which is needed for special types of weapons, where the foreign parties’ cooperation is also needed.  

The deputy defense minister added that financial provision and signing contracts must be done within a predetermined process, which take place within the framework of legal and international considerations.

The Defense Ministry official also said “exchanges with Russia” are still going on, noting that none of the “previously agreed exchanges” with Russia have been canceled.