Nancy Pelosi sets off on Asia tour

According to South China Morning Post, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has begun her anticipated trip to Asia, with her office naming four destinations but making no mention of Taiwan. 

This comes amid more stormy warnings from Beijing amid heightened tensions over her planned visit to the island.

Pelosi, No 3 in the line of US presidential succession, is leading a six-member congressional delegation to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, according to a statement released by her office on Sunday.

The statement skipped any mention of Taiwan, after days of intense speculation about a likely stop there fuelled tensions, with Beijing calling it a provocation and warning Washington against playing with fire.

“In Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, our delegation will hold high-level meetings to discuss how we can further advance our shared interests and values, including peace and security, economic growth and trade, the Covid-19 pandemic, the climate crisis, human rights and democratic governance,” the statement quoted Pelosi as saying.

“America is firmly committed to smart, strategic engagement in the region, understanding that a free and flourishing Indo-Pacific is crucial to prosperity in our nation and around the globe,” the 82-year-old Democratic lawmaker said.

Beijing regards Taiwan to be a breakaway province, to be reunited by force if necessary, and warns against any official exchange with the self-governed island.

It earlier said Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan was a move to support Taiwan independence, in violation of one-China policy, followed by the United States.

On Thursday, Biden and China’s Xi Jinping spoke on the phone for over two hours. During the call, Biden tried to reassure Xi that US policy towards Taiwan has not changed.

“On Taiwan, President Biden emphasized that US policy has not changed and that the US strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” an official readout on the White House website said.

After the leaders’ phone call, China’s Foreign Ministry quoted Xi as telling Biden that those who play with fire will perish by it and that they hoped the United States will be clear-eyed about this.

However, Pelosi indicated on Friday that she will be on a trip to Asia, but did not mention Taiwan. “I am very excited if we were to go to the countries that you will hear about along the way,” she said, Reuters reported.

White House spokesman John Kirby said, “Where she (Pelosi) is going to go and what she is going to do is up to the speaker to speak to.”

However, he added that the United States has not observed any signs of a specific military threat from China. “(We have) seen no physical, tangible indications of anything untoward with regard to Taiwan,” Kirby said.

  

United States remains adamant at not releasing frozen Afghan assets

Please allow me to begin my today’s blog with the Iranian indictment, “United States is the biggest terrorist in this world”. The United States is often accused of killing of hundreds and thousands of people every year in proxy wars or through direct assaults. 

It played ‘the game of death’ in Afghanistan for four decades. After facing the defeat in August last year, it may have pulled its troops from Afghanistan but it is still making lives of Afghans miserable on one or the other pretext.

It is a fact that the United States has neither recognized the Taliban government nor allows other countries to recognize their government is Afghanistan. On top of all it has frozen Afghan foreign exchange reserves. The acts of United States tantamount to worst kind of aggression against Afghans, as the country find it almost impossible to import even basic necessities due to non-availability of foreign exchange.

To maintain the US hegemony in Afghanistan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has launched the US-Afghan Consultative Mechanism (USACM), which would enable Afghan citizens to communicate directly with American policymakers.

Addressing the launching ceremony, the top US diplomat said that besides Pakistan, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Qatar and Turkey, and others were also backing US efforts to convince the Taliban to reverse their decision to keep Afghan girls out of school.

The new platform — USACM — is aimed at bringing together Afghan women, journalists, and at-risk ethnic and religious communities with the representatives of the US State Department. It will facilitate regular engagement with the US government on issues ranging from human rights documentation to women in Islam.

With USACM’s launch, “We are taking these relationships to the next level. That’s why I’m so pleased about today,” Secretary Blinken said. He identified the group’s priorities as supporting income-generating activities for Afghan women; strategizing ways to help Afghan human rights monitors safely document abuses, and devising new methods to promote religious freedom.

The United States has discussed with Taliban officials the possible release of Afghan central bank’s assets frozen after the fall of Kabul in August last year. The two sides discussed ongoing efforts to enable the US$3.5 billion Afghan central bank reserves to be used for the benefit of the Afghan people.

However, in nearly one year, the US administration has failed in addressing the urgent humanitarian situation in Afghanistan.

To further complicate the situation a meeting, involving Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West and Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson, took place on Wednesday in Tashkent. The meetings took place after the conclusion of the Tashkent Conference on Afghanistan that Uzbekistan hosted on July 26.

Media reports on the meeting claimed that the talks had made some progress and the US and Taliban officials had exchanged proposals for unfreezing the assets. But some differences remained unresolved.

One of the key differences was over the Taliban’s refusal to replace the bank’s top political appointees, “one of whom is under US sanctions as are several of the movement’s leaders,” one of the reports added.

Iran aspires to become a gas hub with Russian support

Iran is currently under sanctions and involved in nuclear deal discussions with the United States and the West. It is also positioning itself to work with China and Russia.

The investment by Gazprom in Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company was announced during a recent visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Iran. This creates hope that Russian investment could help Iran become a regional gas hub.

Analyst and energy expert Habibollah Zafarian was quoted in an article at Iran’s Fars News arguing that the country could become a gas hub based on gas trade with neighboring countries. “Iran's gas reserves and privileged geographical location allow the country to play an influential role in the gas trade of the region.” 

Zafarian said “Iran's strategy should be defined in such a way that it buys the surplus gas of the countries of the region as much as possible and exports gas to the requesting countries at a higher price.”

Those like Zafarian, quoted in Iran pro-government media, are part of a push for the Islamic Republic to get out from under the West’s shadow and increase energy independence. 

Iran is well positioned to trade with Qatar, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which have a surplus of gas, the article said, adding that gas is currently being exported by various countries to Armenia, Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait and the Persian Gulf countries – especially the UAE – and Oman, Pakistan and Afghanistan. 

“Everyone wants to import gas,” Zafarian said. “As a result, there is a great opportunity for Iran to become a regional gas hub with gas trade between exporting and importing countries.” 

Iran wants to take advantage of the war in Ukraine and the global economic crisis to work closely with Qatar and also improve its gas fields and its liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure

“Also, in the recent developments of the gas market, Russia has minimized gas exports to Europe, and America is trying to increase its LNG exports in order to replace a part of Russian gas in the European market,” an expert told Fars News.

Iran can now purchase Russian gas and then export it. There could even be an export pipeline. Gas could be exported to Turkey, Armenia, Georgia and Syria.

"In return, we can also help Russia and buy Qatar gas, which is one of the most serious options to replace Russian gas in the European market, and sell it to our destination markets."  

Clearly Iran is plotting to take advantage of the global crises, openly saying what it wants to do. The regime has been trying to develop north-south rail and transport lines for years so that it can hook up Turkey with southern Iran and also develop links to Central Asia and Pakistan or even India.  

Supporters of Iraqi cleric Sadr storm Baghdad Green Zone

Storming Baghdad twice in a week by supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr and chanting anti-Iran slogans can fuel turmoil in the country. Iraqis linked neither to Sadr nor to his opponents say are they caught in the middle of the political gridlock.

Analysts have reasons to suspect the riots are being sponsored and supported by the elements who don't want any reduction in animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Lately, Iraq has played a key role in bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia closer.  

Thousands of supporters of populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr stormed Baghdad’s fortified government zone on Saturday for the second time in a week, escalating a political stand-off that is hitting ordinary Iraqis hardest.

Protesters rallied by Sadr and his social-political Sadrist Movement tore down concrete barriers and entered the Green Zone, which houses government buildings and foreign missions, heading for Iraq’s parliament, a Reuters witness said.

The scenes followed similar protests on Wednesday, although this time several protesters and police officers were hurt as Sadr’s supporters threw stones and police fired teargas and stun grenades, according to security officials and medics.

Sadr’s party came first in a general election in October but he withdrew his lawmakers from parliament when he failed to form a government which excluded his rivals, mostly groups backed by Iran.

Sadr has since made good on threats to stir up popular unrest if parliament tries to approve a government he does not like, saying it must be free of foreign influence and the corruption that has plagued Iraq for decades.

The Sadrists chanted against Sadr’s political rivals who are now trying to form a government. Iraq has been without a president and prime minister for a record period because of the deadlock.

Sadr maintains large state power himself because his movement remains involved in running the country — his loyalists sit in powerful positions throughout Iraqi ministries and state bodies.

Iraqis linked neither to Sadr nor to his opponents say are they caught in the middle of the political gridlock.

While Baghdad earns record income from its vast oil wealth, the country has no budget, regular power and water cuts, poor education and healthcare, and insufficient job opportunities for the young.

Indian Army Chief visits Bangladesh

The chief of army staff of India, General Manoj Pande completed his Bangladesh visit recently (from July 18 to July 20) as part of the outstanding bilateral defense relations between Bangladesh and India.

General Manoj Pande was on his first trip abroad since taking over the post. First day of his visit, the army chief laid a wreath at Shikha Anirban to honor the valiant souls who made the ultimate sacrifices during the Liberation War of 1971.

Indian Army chief General Manoj Pande received a Guard of Honour at a convention centre of Bangladesh Armed Forces.

Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pande paid a courtesy call on his Bangladesh counterpart General SM Shafiuddin Ahmed at the Army Headquarters in Dhaka.  The two discussed ways to enhance and strengthen bilateral defense cooperation.

Manoj Pande met with senior members of the security establishment several times throughout the day to discuss defense-related topics. In Dhanmondi, at the Bangladesh’s Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Memorial Museum, he also paid respects. He met with Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina on Tuesday and focused on strengthening bilateral ties.

The army chief spoke the Defense Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur, professors and students on the second day of his visit.

He met with staff at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace Support and Operation Training, a prestigious institution in Bangladesh that prepares peacekeepers for work in a variety of UN peace operations, and engaged in conversation with them. After that, he visited the Bangabandhu Military Museum in Mirpur.

Manoj Pande’s visit has strengthened relations between the two armies on a bilateral level and served as a catalyst for improved coordination and collaboration between the two nations on a variety of strategic problems.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is an important ally of the India. The two nations work closely together on problems like climate change, counterterrorism, and regional security. This visit may serve to cement bilateral defense ties. Defense cooperation between nations could strengthen bilateral ties.

Both India and Bangladesh are essential to the region. Despite some bilateral issues, both countries are greatly interested in further solidifying their bilateral ties, which was made clear by this visit.

This could assist in bolstering bilateral ties and reflecting better bilateral understanding. This visit is highly important for Bangladesh and India in the region. Bangladesh and the India must work together as reliable partners to address some shared issues. Through this visit, India and Bangladesh have further reinforced their defense ties.

India played a significant role in the Bangladesh War of Liberation in 1971, helping the then-East Pakistan transform into the new country of Bangladesh, which permanently altered the dynamics of South Asia. India and Bangladesh agreed to a “Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation” that would last for 25 years.

Given the numerous cultural, diplomatic, economic, and security linkages that exist between India and Bangladesh today, the two nations’ bilateral ties are now stronger than ever. Bangladesh occupies a special place in India’s heart as a close neighbor and an essential part of the country’s “Neighborhood First Policy.”

In March this year, two Indian naval ships—INS Kulish and INS Sumedha—visited Bangladesh’s Mongla Port, making it the first naval visit India had made in the previous 50 years.

Bangladesh is still India’s “closest neighbor,” and relations with it are at a “golden age.” India wants to strengthen its relationship with Bangladesh just as the US wants to engage with it more strategically. Of sure, both nations would benefit from the situation.

In recent years, India and Bangladesh’s defense and security relations have improved. The 50th anniversary of Bangladesh’s Liberation was in 2021. Both India and Bangladesh have highly trained, experienced military, and they work together to keep the Eastern region peaceful.

The Bangladeshi and Indian militaries are increasingly collaborating on defense. Through a variety of initiatives, such as joint training and drills and defense discussions, the two countries’ armed forces have been working together more and more.

In order to achieve self-sufficiency in defense manufacturing in Bangladesh, India will assist Bangladesh in setting up manufacturing and service facilities for the defense platforms that both nations currently possess. Additionally, India will offer the Bangladesh military specialized training as well as technical and logistical support. India also gave a neighboring nation, Bangladesh, its first ever line of credit for defense-related purchases, in the amount of US$500 million.

India’s determination to combat terrorism in all its manifestations was echoed by Bangladesh’s resolute stance against terrorism. India is aware of Bangladesh’s efforts to prevent terrorist organizations from using space to conduct activities against India. In response, India should keep up its efforts to stop any terrorist group from using its territory to harm Bangladeshi interests.

India had encountered challenging circumstances in some of the States bordering Bangladesh, but since Prime Minister Shiekh Hasina’s government came to office in 2009, it has provided all assistance.

 

US oil companies the biggest beneficiaries of sanctions on Russian energy companies

The US super-majors ExxonMobil and Chevron both reported their highest-ever quarterly profits on Friday. Higher oil and gas prices, the highest refining margins, increased production, and aggressive cost control all contributed to the record-breaking profits at Exxon. Chevron also reported record-breaking profits, announcing an increase in share buybacks.

ExxonMobil results were far above analyst expectations and posted second-quarter earnings of US$17.9 billion, or US$4.21 per share assuming dilution. This is nearly quadruple the US$4.69 billion earnings for the second quarter last year, and more than triple the earnings from the first quarter of this year. Exxon’s per share earnings easily beat the analyst consensus of US$3.84.

Higher oil and gas prices, the highest refining margins in years, increased production, and aggressive cost control all contributed to the record-breaking profits at Exxon, were higher than its previous quarterly earnings record in 2012 and the quarterly profits in 2008, when Brent prices hit a record US$147 per barrel.

“Second-quarter earnings were driven by a tight supply/demand balance for oil, natural gas, and refined products, which have increased both natural gas realizations and refining margins well above the 10-year range,” Exxon said.

Another US super-major, Chevron, also posted record earnings beating analyst forecasts, thanks to high oil and gas prices and tight fuel markets driving multi-year high refining margins.

Chevron recorded adjusted earnings of US$11.4 billion, or US$5.82 per share, for the second quarter, up from US$3.3 billion earnings, or US$1.71 per share, for the same period of 2021. The analyst consensus was for US$5.08 EPS for this past quarter.

Chevron increased the top end of its annual share repurchase guidance range to US$15 billion, up from the US$10 billion guidance from March.

Following the results release, Chevron stock was up by more than 3.5% pre-market on Friday, while Exxon was advancing by 2.5%.

The record earnings from the US super-majors add to similarly strong earnings from the European majors, each of which reported much higher profits as commodity prices rallied.

 

 

 

United States GDP falls for second straight quarter

Economy of the United States appeared to shrink for the second consecutive quarter, according to federal data released Thursday, amid growing concern the country could be slipping into a recession.

US gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk between April and June, the Commerce Department reported, marking the second-straight quarter of economic contraction.

GDP fell at a yearly pace of 0.9% in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s first estimate of economic growth over the previous three months.

“The US economy is struggling,” Scott Hoyt, senior director at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a Thursday analysis.

“We now expect growth to struggle to reach potential both this year and next. However, we don’t believe the economy is in a recession,” he continued.

Many economists expected GDP to fall for a second consecutive quarter as the economy faced more pressure from high inflation, rising interest rates, slowing job growth, falling home sales and other headwinds. 

While the economy was almost certain to slow after growing 5.7% in 2021, experts have become more fearful of the US slowing into a recession after GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter.

Two straight quarters of negative economic growth have long been used as a rule of thumb to determine when the US is in recession and is the formal threshold for a recession in other countries. But economists in the US consider a broader range of data when determining if the US is in recession.

“The headline of a second straight decline in real GDP highlights the abrupt change in the path of the US economy, but the ongoing strength in the job market and other signs of growth make it unlikely that this will be categorized as a recession at this point,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a Thursday analysis.

A steep decline in business investment and a 3.1% surge in imports, which detract from GDP in calculations, were the two major forces behind the second quarter decline.

 “The data fits with our view that the rate of US economic growth will slow noticeably this year, as households and businesses grapple with record high inflation and a steep rise in interest rates,” Cailin Birch, a global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a Thursday analysis.

President Biden and White House officials have tried to convince Americans that the US economy is not yet in a recession thanks to a strong job market. They’ve focused heavily on the NBER’s definition of a recession to show Americans that the economy is not as weak as it may seem.

“It’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure,” Biden said in a Thursday statement.

Republican lawmakers were quick to release their own declarations of recession. They blamed Biden for driving the economy into ruin and accusing the White House of trying to dupe the American people.

“As Biden and his Democrat allies in Congress busy themselves with changing the definition of a recession, Americans continue to shoulder the burden of troublesome economic conditions,” Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, the ranking member on the House Small Business Committee, said in a Thursday statement.

The Federal Reserve is likely to keep boosting interest rates as inflation rises, which will continue to slow the economy, as the war in Ukraine and pandemic-related supply chain challenges threaten to make inflation worse.

 “Whether the economy meets the conventional or formal definition of recession is in many respects immaterial. Either way, households and firms are reeling from combined energy, inflation, and rate shocks that have damped individuals’ purchasing power and are in the process of reducing household living standards,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at audit and tax firm RSM.

“That is the toll levied by the inflation tax and is why it is critical to restore price stability to the economy as soon as is reasonably possible,” he continued.