Kashmir: Modi trying to convert demographic majority into political minority

Two years ago, on 5th August 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi removed the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir as a state and redesignated it as two union territories, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh, which are governed directly from Delhi. 

He also scrapped Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which had allowed J&K to make its own laws, and cancelled Article 35A, which gave its legislature the power to determine who was a permanent resident of the state.

The effective annexation of J&K was overwhelmingly rejected by Kashmiri Muslims. Pakistan virulently opposed it, arguing that because J&K was considered by the United Nations Security Council to be disputed territory; its annexation violated international law.

Modi claimed that this unilateral move would bring peace and development to J&K. Not surprisingly, this action by his Hindu nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has only brought more misery and more violence. And, sadly, the future doesn’t look promising.

Within a year, the impact on the economy of J&K was disastrous. Another year later, and notwithstanding the Modi government’s assertions that the political changes had brought socioeconomic development to the region, economic activity has come to a standstill. A double lockdown, political and Covid-driven, has hit the tourism industry very hard. Starved of international tourists, those running the famous house boats on Dal Lake in Srinagar are desperately struggling to survive.

Many of the political leaders arrested two years ago are still under house arrest or in jail. The BJP has made rampant use of a particularly harsh piece of legislation, the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act—which permits detention without charge for up to six months—to crack down on all forms of dissent. Torture and mistreatment of detainees, including teenagers, is common practice. Less than 1% of arrests under the act have resulted in a conviction in the past 10 years. Modi has used the law to silence civil-society organizations, in particular, the Association of Parents of Disappeared Persons and the Jammu Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society—the only two groups documenting human rights abuses in J&K.

India’s harsh and uncompromising approach to J&K has come to the attention of the UN. In March 2021, five UN special rapporteurs wrote a letter to the Modi government expressing their concerns over arbitrary detentions, extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances in J&K. That letter and five previous communications by other UN rapporteurs since 5 August 2019 have been ignored.

In June 2021, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, concerned by grave human rights violations in J&K, asked the Indian government to end the use of shotgun pellets against children. The dire situation in J&K has also come to the attention of the EU. A number of members of the European Parliament have written to the president and vice president of the European Commission expressing concern about the human rights violations in J&K.

Kashmiri political leaders­—most of whom have lost all credibility with Kashmiris—have demanded that J&K’s statehood be restored. Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai has said in the Indian parliament that statehood would be ‘granted at an appropriate time after normalcy is restored’. The Indian government’s response begs more questions about Kashmir’s future.

In the meantime, Delhi has extended until March 2022 the role of the Delimitation Commission established to redraw the electoral constituencies of J&K. Most Kashmiris fear that the commission’s real task is to redraw the electoral map to make it easier for the BJP to win the next election, whenever that will be.

But more worrisome to Kashmiris is that since the legislative changes in August 2019, well over three million domicile certificates have been granted to non-Kashmiris, most of them non-Muslims. Moreover, there’s a fear that Delhi will apply to Kashmir the 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act, which requires Muslims to prove their citizenship. Many would not be able to do so because they have no official papers to confirm their legal status.

The Modi government has been keen to assist the return to Kashmir of thousands of Kashmiri Pandits (Hindus) who left because of the security situation in the 1990s. As former J&K finance minister Haseeb Drabu noted, Kashmiris are worried that through the use of legislative and administrative actions the Modi government is trying ‘to convert a demographic majority into a political minority’.

Despite the misery Kashmiris endure daily, the international community has no appetite to confront Modi on this. And he knows it.

There are critical strategic issues to deal with, notably the growing tension between the West and China and the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, in which India could play an important role. India’s geostrategic importance is further strengthened by its membership, along with the US, Japan and Australia, of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Given that context, Kashmir simply doesn’t make it onto the agenda.

On his recent visit to India, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not allow Kashmir and other human rights issues, such as the poor treatment of Muslims in India, to complicate the bilateral meeting. When asked to comment on the wobbliness of India’s democracy, Blinken stated, ‘We view Indian democracy as a force for good in defense of a free and open Indo-Pacific. We also recognize that every democracy, starting with our own, is a work in progress.’ This would have been sweet music to his host, India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar.

Sadly, once again, politics takes precedence over human rights issues. There’s no expectation that anything will change soon for Kashmiris because there’s absolutely no international pressure on Modi to relent.

Israel shifts target to Lebanon from Gaza

According to an AP report, Israel on Thursday escalated its rocket attacks by launching rare airstrikes on Lebanon. The Israeli army said in a statement that jets struck the launch sites from which rockets had been fired a day ago as well as another target used to attack Israel in the past. 

The IDF blamed Lebanon for the shelling and warned “against further attempts to harm Israeli civilians and Israel’s sovereignty.”

The overnight airstrikes in southern Lebanon were a marked escalation at a politically sensitive time. Israel’s new eight-party governing coalition is trying to keep peace under a fragile cease fire that ended an 11-day war with Hamas in Gaza in May. Several incidents leading up to this week’s rocket fire from Lebanon have focused attention on Israel’s northern border.

The strikes came at a time Lebanon is mired in multiple crises, including a devastating economic and financial crisis and political deadlock that has left the country without a functional government for a full year.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun said Israel’s use of its air force to target Lebanese villages “is the first of its kind since 2006 and indicated the presence of aggressive, escalatory intentions” against Lebanon.

Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah fought a devastating, month-long war in 2006 which killed some 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and around 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers. The war failed to neutralize the group’s rocket threat, and Israeli officials say Hezbollah’s improved missile arsenal is now capable of striking virtually anywhere in the country.

No one has claimed responsibility for the rocket fire from Lebanon, and Hezbollah has not commented. The Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar TV reported the Israeli strikes at around 2 a.m. Thursday, saying they hit an empty area in the Mahmoudiya Village in Marjayoun district.

Avichai Adraee, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman, said the Lebanese government is responsible for what happens on its territories and warned against more attacks on Israel from south Lebanon.

Three rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israeli territory Wednesday and the army responded with sustained artillery fire, Israel’s military said. The announcement came after sirens sounded in northern Israel warning of a possible rocket attack. Two rockets landed inside Israeli territory, the army said.

Channel 12 reported that one rocket exploded in an open area and another was intercepted by Israel’s defense system, known as the Iron Dome. Israeli media reported that the incoming rockets started fires near Kiryat Shmona, a community of about 20,000 people near the Lebanese border.

The Lebanese military reported 92 artillery shells fired by Israel on Lebanese villages. It said the Israeli artillery shelling resulted in a fire in the village of Rashaya al-Fukhar. In a statement, the Lebanese army also said it was conducting patrols in the border region and had set up a number of checkpoints and opened an investigation to determine the source of the rocket fire.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned the rocket fire from Lebanon. “Israel has the right to defend itself against such attacks,” he told reporters in Washington, adding that the US would remain engaged with partners “in the region in an effort to de-escalate the situation.”

At the United Nations, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, was aware of the rocket fire and Israel’s artillery response. He said the UNIFIL commander, Maj. Gen. Stefano Del Col, appealed for a cease-fire and urged both sides to “exercise maximum restraint to avoid further escalation.”

Following Turkey, Pakistan should also refuse influx of Afghan Refugees

The United States has asked Pakistan and Turkey to open doors for the entry of Afghan refugees. Interestingly, Turkey has already refused to be part of this plan. Now the Government of Pakistan has to express its consent to be part of this plan. The popular demand is that following Turkey Pakistan also should not allow influx of Afghan refugees.

The United States wants Pakistan to keep its borders with Afghanistan open for Afghan refugees. The super power taking a retreat from Afghanistan believes that two countries, Iran and Pakistan can play a pivotal role in the resettlement plan.

Since the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Iran, US policy makers look at Pakistan to help them in transferring of refugees to Turkey via Iran.

They are using a strange argument “If people go north or if they go via Iran to Turkey, they have an opportunity both to enter the country as well as to register with either the government or with UNHCR.”

The US State Department asked Turkey to allow Afghans to stay in the country for up to 14 months before they are resettled in the United States.

The Turkish government has refused to follow the US plan to use third countries to resettle Afghans, saying the move would cause a “great migration crisis” in the region.

Reportedly, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf said at a briefing in Washington that arrangements should be made to keep displaced Afghans inside their country instead of pushing them into Pakistan. Adding, “Pakistan does not have the capacity to take more refugees.”

Moeed has also been fully supported by Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed saying, “We have decided not to open our border for refugees; the aid agencies can help the needy on the other side too.”

It is on record that since 1979, Pakistan has been hosting millions of Afghans and more than three million are permanently settled in the country.

Some critics say, “Influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan has ushered ‘arms and drugs’ culture, religious extremism and sectarian killing. It may be true that most of the Afghans taking refuge in Pakistan are law abiding, but terrorist, under the disguise of refugees, have created safe sanctuaries and use residents of the areas as human shield.”

Turkey refuses to shoulder Afghan migration

Foreign Ministry of Turkey has called the United States “irresponsible” after the Biden administration announced it would expand efforts to assist at-risk Afghan citizens with the major caveat that the adjudication process would take months in a third country.

Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tanju Bilgic said Wednesday the US statement had suggested Turkey as an application spot “without consultation.” He said Turkey does not have the capacity to shoulder another migration crisis.

“The US may directly transport these people by plane. Turkey will not take over the international responsibilities of third countries,” Bilgic said and added Turkey would not allow its laws to be abused by other countries. He said the US announcement would trigger a major refugee crisis.

Turkey is already hosting some 3.7 million Syrians who fled the civil war there. Afghans have also fled to Turkey to escape their country’s war and instability. Media reports from border towns with Iran show the number of Afghans crossing into Turkey is on the rise.

The State Department had said it was widening the scope of Afghans eligible for refugee status in United States to include current and former employees of US-based news organizations, US-based aid and development agencies and other relief groups that receive US funding. Current and former employees of the US government and the NATO military operation who don’t meet the criteria for a dedicated program for such workers are also covered.

But applicants must leave Afghanistan to begin the adjudication process that may take 12-14 months in a third country, and the US does not intend to support their departures or stays there.

Ebrahim Raisi faces five contentious issues

Ebrahim Raisi is scheduled to take oath in Majlis (Parliament) as 8^th President of Islamic Republic of Iran on 5^th August 2021. About 115 officials from 73 countries have been invited to the ceremony. 

The former Chief Justice, who won the 18^th June presidential election, has been authorized by Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. Earlier, the Guardian Council, which oversees elections, had sent his credentials to the Office of the Leader.

Raisi says his top priorities are resolving budget deficit, stabilizing the capital market, controlling inflation, fighting the coronavirus pandemic, addressing the issue of water scarcity, and increasing production of electricity. 

The five contentious issues facing Raisi are:

Fixing the economy 

The top priority is to revive the economy hit hard by sanctions since former US president Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, the damage later compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic. Iran has lost billions of dollars of crucial oil revenues, as it remained out of the international financial system. If the sanctions are lifted, Iran can witness stabilization of the macroeconomic environment, with an acceleration of growth and a fall in inflation. But the new president will still have to manage public expectations because one of the risks is that people think that everything will improve immediately and they may be disappointed, if situation does not improve.  

Improving foreign relations

If a compromise on the nuclear issue is reached, it will probably not allow Western investors to return to the Iranian market in the short term. Diplomatic normalization between Tehran and Washington seems to be an indispensable condition. The new president will have to find a new way to ensure a minimum of improvement in the economic living conditions of the population by managing the level of hostility with the Joe Biden administration. Raisi wants to prioritize relations with countries geographically close to Iran, which have been on friendly terms with China. Tensions with the West are likely to continue to simmer, but the process of diplomatic normalization with Saudi Arabia may persist.

Overcoming Covid-19 

When the Covid-19 pandemic struck, Iran quickly became the region's worst-hit country. The official figures were believed to underestimate the real toll, some three million people have been infected and more than 81,000 died. Iran has fallen behind in its vaccination campaign, partly because of US sanctions. An easing of sanctions, as well as the possible short-term release of one or more Iranian-designed vaccines, could help the effort.    

Regaining the people's trust

Iran's isolation and economic pain, as well as repression of two waves of protests, in the winter of 2017-2018 and in November 2019, have left their mark. Iranians were also dismayed by the January 2020 downing of a Ukrainian airliner by Iran's military amid high tensions with the United States. The crisis of confidence can be termed deep and widespread. 

Tackling environmental problems 

Ecological issues may be Iran's forgotten priority, but they loom large in the country of 83 million threatened by climate change, water shortages, desertification and urban air pollution. The environmental crisis in Iran is a reality, but so far the government has not been able to put in place a comprehensive policy. Environmental issues were not discussed in three televised pre-election debates. Water resources have depleted due to destruction of natural resources caused by unsustainable agricultural and industrial practices. Unfortunately, it takes only two rains to completely forget about it.  

Lebanon marks first anniversary of horrific blast at Beirut port

According to an AP report, private businesses and government offices remained closed on Wednesday, 4^th August 2021 in Lebanon to mark first anniversary of the horrific explosion at the port of Beirut with a national day of mourning.

The grim anniversary comes amid an unprecedented economic and financial meltdown, and a political stalemate that has kept the country without a functioning government for a full year.

United in grief and anger, families of the victims and other Lebanese were planning prayers and protests later in the day.

The explosion killing at least 214 people has been termed one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in the history. The explosion tore through the city with such force it caused a tremor across the entire country that was heard and felt as far away as the Mediterranean island of Cyprus more than 200 kilometers (180 miles) away.

It soon emerged in documents that the highly combustible nitrates had been haphazardly stored at a port warehouse alongside other flammable material since 2014, and that multiple high-level officials over the years knew of its presence and did nothing.

A year later, there has been no accountability and the investigation has yet to find replies to questions such as who ordered the shipment of the chemicals and why officials ignored repeated internal warnings of their danger.

Families of the victims planned a memorial and prayers at the still wrecked site of the blast at Beirut port later in the day. Mass protests are also expected. A huge metal gavel with the words “Act for Justice” has been placed on a wall opposite the port with its shredded grain silos, near the words “My government did this” scrawled in black.

Flags flew at half-staff over government institutions and embassies and even medical labs and COVID-19 vaccination centers were closed to mark the day. Reflecting the sever anger at the country’s ruling class, posters assailing authorities have been hung on the facade of defaced buildings across from the port.

“Here starts your end and our beginning,” read one poster that took up the space of five floors of a high-rise. “Hostages of a murderous state,” read another.

In an extensive investigative report about the blast, Human Rights Watch on Tuesday called for an international probe into the port blast, accusing Lebanese authorities of trying to thwart the investigation.

HRW said a lack of judicial independence, constitution-imposed immunity for high-level officials and a range of procedural and systemic flaws in the domestic investigation rendered it “incapable of credibly delivering justice.”

“Since the 1960s we have not seen an official behind bars,” said Pierre Gemayel, whose brother Yakoub was killed in his apartment in the explosion last year.

Taking part in a small protest outside the justice palace Wednesday, he said the refusal by the political class to lift immunity from senior officials accused of negligence that led to the blast is “proof of their collusion, and that their hands are tainted with blood.”

The explosion — which destroyed and damaged thousands of homes and businesses — and the lack of accountability, have added to tensions and anguish in a country reeling from multiple crises, including an economic unraveling so severe it has been described by the World Bank as one of the worst in the last 150 years.

The crisis has led to a dramatic currency crash and hyperinflation, plunging more than half the country’s population below the poverty line.

At the Vatican, Pope Francis recalled the suffering of the Lebanese people, as he held his first weekly audience with the public since surgery a month ago.

“A year after the terrible explosion in the port of Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, that caused death and destruction, my thoughts go to that dear country, above all to the victims, to their families, to the many injured and all those who lost home and work,” the pontiff said.

“And so many lost the illusion of living,” he added.

US-Indian cooperation against China

According to South Asia Journal, the top diplomats of India and the United States have pledged to expand their multilateral security partnership, underscoring the deepening of ties between two countries concerned over China’s growing influence in the region.

US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met in New Delhi and sought to strengthen a regional front against Beijing’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and their cooperation in Afghanistan.

They also lauded each country’s help in fighting the coronavirus and said their vaccine partnership is an effort to end the pandemic. Blinken also announced a US$25 million fund to support India’s COVID-19 vaccination program.

“There are few relationships in the world that are more vital than one between the United States and India. We are the world’s two leading democracies and our diversity fuels our national strength,” Blinken said at a joint news conference.

Washington has made no secret of its desire for India’s help in isolating China. The two countries have steadily ramped up their military relationship and signed a string of defense deals.

The US and India are part of the Quad regional alliance that also includes Japan and Australia and focuses on China’s growing economic and military strength. China has called the Quad an attempt to contain its ambitions.

Blinken’s India visit comes just days after the No. 2 U.S. diplomat, Wendy Sherman, was in China.

Blinken said he and Jaishankar also discussed regional security issues including Afghanistan, where the US is expected to complete its military withdrawal in August. He called India’s contribution to the stability of Afghanistan “vital.”

Blinken said there was no “military solution” to the conflict in Afghanistan and that the country would turn into a “pariah state” if the Taliban takes control by force.

“We will continue to work together to sustain the gains of the Afghan people and support regional stability after the withdrawal of coalition forces from the country,” Blinken said.

Jaishankar said the world wishes to see an “independent, sovereign, democratic and stable Afghanistan at peace with itself and with its neighbors,” and cautioned that the country’s “independence and sovereignty will only be ensured if it is free from malign influences.”

 New Delhi has often expressed concern that a Taliban takeover could lead to security threats against India.

India has provided Afghan security forces with operational training and military equipment, even though it has had no troops on the ground. It has also provided more than US$2 billion in development aid to Afghanistan.

In June, India’s Foreign Ministry said it was in contact with “various stakeholders” in Afghanistan to discuss its future. More recently, officials from the two countries have increased mutual visits.

“New Delhi is clearly stepping up its game on the Afghanistan front,” said Micheal Kugelman of the Asia Program at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “Its decision to engage more in regional diplomacy on Afghanistan signifies a desire to be more of a player than it has in the past.”

In a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi later Wednesday, Blinken discussed the pandemic, security and defense cooperation, including Quad, and “shared values and democratic principles,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said.

Earlier during his visit, Blinken spoke to civil society leaders and said fundamental freedoms and rule of law are “tenets of democracies” like the US and India.

Opponents of Modi’s governing Hindu nationalist party have accused it of stifling dissent and introducing divisive policies that discriminate against Muslims and other minorities. Modi has also been accused of trying to silence voices critical of his administration’s handling of the pandemic.

India routinely denies criticism of its human rights record. It has also rejected criticism by foreign governments and rights groups that civil liberties have contracted in the country.

 “We believe that all people deserve to have a voice in their government, to be treated with respect, no matter who they are,” Blinken said.

But experts say human rights concerns are unlikely to fundamentally affect the US-India relationship.

“For all the rhetoric trumpeting the shared values that drive partnership, it really boils down to shared interests,” Kugelman said. “At the end of the day, so long as China’s rise continues to be a common concern, the relationship will have no trouble operating on all cylinders.”