Pakistan: Likely facets of Federal Budget FY24

Most challenging times to present the Federal Budget for next year (FY24) amid stagflation and lots of uncertainties related to upcoming elections and how Pakistan will bridge its external account funding gap.

This uncertainty on financing US dollar funding gap is creating nervousness in currency, bond and stock markets as Pakistan faces very high probability of default.

Moreover, on the political front with Imran Khan's PTI being sidelined, it is possible that a weak coalition government may come to power in elections. It will be interesting to see how aggressive and competent the new setup will be to deal with this economic crisis.

To create good optics, it is possible that the government may set an unrealistic revenue target to create space for spending in the budget.

The present Government is scheduled to announce Federal Budget FY24 on June 09, 2023. It seems highly unlikely that the government headed by Shehbaz Sharif will be able to complete the current IMF program on time.

The general perception is that regardless of the status of the current IMF program, Pakistan will have to enter another and a bigger IMF program.

The incumbent government is under immense pressure due to an Economic slowdown and high inflation and could take steps to appease the public in the upcoming budget through some sort of expansionary policies including direct cash subsidies for the underprivileged and increase in minimum wages. Any excessive spending would be ill-advised without substantial tax collection measures.

The Budget outlay for FY24 is estimated up to PKR15 trillion as against PKR9.6 trillion proposed for FY23 assuming record high mark up cost due to high interest rate.

The Government is likely to set tax revenue collection target at above PKR9 trillion for FY24 or 8.6% of GDP, as against a target of PKR7.5 trillion for FY23 and 29% higher than expected tax collection for FY23.

The Revenue targets in the past have also varied on an average by 8% in last 5 years from actual and analysts expect the same to happen in FY24 amid economic slowdown.

The Non-tax revenue target for FY24 is estimated at PKR2.5 trillion or 2.4% of GDP as against PKR1.6 trillion or 2% of GDP estimated for FY23. This seems achievable given higher SBP profit share and significant jump in PDL.

The Federal Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) is estimated at PKR0.9 trillion for FY24. However, analysts fear major cuts in this due to fiscal constraints. Consolidated PSDP (Federal and Provincial) is anticipated at PKR2.6 trillion or 2.5% of GDP for FY24.

Some of the taxation measures under consideration include: 1) Tax on undistributed reserves, 2) Continuation of Supertax, 3) Shift from Final Tax Regime to Minimum Tax Regime, 4) Asset Tax/Wealth Tax, 5) Higher tax on Non filers, 6) Tax on rental income, and 7) Additional Tax on Banks, Tobacco and Beverage sectors.

Budget is anticipated to be Neutral to Positive for Stock Market as analysts don’t expect major steps in budget that can affect the market and key listed sectors.

Courtesy: Topline Securities

 

 

Ebrahim Raisi faces five contentious issues

Ebrahim Raisi is scheduled to take oath in Majlis (Parliament) as 8^th President of Islamic Republic of Iran on 5^th August 2021. About 115 officials from 73 countries have been invited to the ceremony. 

The former Chief Justice, who won the 18^th June presidential election, has been authorized by Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. Earlier, the Guardian Council, which oversees elections, had sent his credentials to the Office of the Leader.

Raisi says his top priorities are resolving budget deficit, stabilizing the capital market, controlling inflation, fighting the coronavirus pandemic, addressing the issue of water scarcity, and increasing production of electricity. 

The five contentious issues facing Raisi are:

Fixing the economy 

The top priority is to revive the economy hit hard by sanctions since former US president Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, the damage later compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic. Iran has lost billions of dollars of crucial oil revenues, as it remained out of the international financial system. If the sanctions are lifted, Iran can witness stabilization of the macroeconomic environment, with an acceleration of growth and a fall in inflation. But the new president will still have to manage public expectations because one of the risks is that people think that everything will improve immediately and they may be disappointed, if situation does not improve.  

Improving foreign relations

If a compromise on the nuclear issue is reached, it will probably not allow Western investors to return to the Iranian market in the short term. Diplomatic normalization between Tehran and Washington seems to be an indispensable condition. The new president will have to find a new way to ensure a minimum of improvement in the economic living conditions of the population by managing the level of hostility with the Joe Biden administration. Raisi wants to prioritize relations with countries geographically close to Iran, which have been on friendly terms with China. Tensions with the West are likely to continue to simmer, but the process of diplomatic normalization with Saudi Arabia may persist.

Overcoming Covid-19 

When the Covid-19 pandemic struck, Iran quickly became the region's worst-hit country. The official figures were believed to underestimate the real toll, some three million people have been infected and more than 81,000 died. Iran has fallen behind in its vaccination campaign, partly because of US sanctions. An easing of sanctions, as well as the possible short-term release of one or more Iranian-designed vaccines, could help the effort.    

Regaining the people's trust

Iran's isolation and economic pain, as well as repression of two waves of protests, in the winter of 2017-2018 and in November 2019, have left their mark. Iranians were also dismayed by the January 2020 downing of a Ukrainian airliner by Iran's military amid high tensions with the United States. The crisis of confidence can be termed deep and widespread. 

Tackling environmental problems 

Ecological issues may be Iran's forgotten priority, but they loom large in the country of 83 million threatened by climate change, water shortages, desertification and urban air pollution. The environmental crisis in Iran is a reality, but so far the government has not been able to put in place a comprehensive policy. Environmental issues were not discussed in three televised pre-election debates. Water resources have depleted due to destruction of natural resources caused by unsustainable agricultural and industrial practices. Unfortunately, it takes only two rains to completely forget about it.