China soliciting support for Russia

As the West condemns Russia, President Vladimir Putin has vocal supporters in China, where the ruling Communist Party tells its people they are fellow targets of US-led harassment. “If Russia is destroyed, we will be next. 

This is for sure,” said Wang Yongchun, a retiree in Beijing. “The United States wants to dominate the world.”

Such comments reflect the stance of a ruling party that is the closest thing Putin has to a major ally. The war should stop but the United States is to blame.

President Xi Jinping’s government has tried to distance itself from Russia’s offensive but avoided criticizing Moscow. The government has offered to act as mediator and denounced trade and financial sanctions against Russia.

Ruling party control of all Chinese media and intensive internet censorship make it hard to gauge public opinion. But what the party allows online and requires media to publish make clear what it wants the public to think.

Media outlets were told last week to post only pro-Russian content and to censor anti-Russian or pro-Western views, according to a copy of instructions posted on the social media account of the newspaper Beijing News. The post was later deleted.

Online and in social media, expressions of sympathy for Ukraine and support for Russia appear but not criticism of Moscow.

“When a war begins, is it not the children of ordinary people who serve as cannon fodder”, said a post signed Da Ke Ming Yi on the Weibo social media platform. “Those who died were the children of ordinary people.”

A letter signed by five professors from prominent universities that criticized Russia for attacking a weaker neighbor appeared briefly on social media before being deleted.

“We stand against unjust wars,” said the academics from schools including Tsinghua University in Beijing, alma mater of many ruling party leaders.

Comments posted by nationalists criticized the professors for failing to stick to the ruling party’s official position of neutrality.

The ruling party has spent decades using school textbooks and the entirely state-controlled media to nurture a sense of nationalist grievance. It accuses the United States of trying to block China’s rise to its rightful position of global leadership.

State media repeat Beijing’s position that the United States and its European allies are to blame for the Ukraine war because they failed to respond to Russian concerns that its democratic neighbor should be barred from joining NATO, the Western military alliance.

That echoes Chinese complaints that Washington and its allies are interfering in its domestic affairs and issues of national sovereignty, including its claim over Taiwan, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and in Xinjiang, the far-western region where China has been accused of detaining over a million Uyghurs.

Russia’s attack, as a historical event, “is not a good one,” but “people think the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is because the United States stirred up trouble,” said Zheng Bowen, a 38-year old engineer.

The state-run newspaper Capital News exhorted the public to line up with the ruling party: “The nation’s attitude is our attitude.”

“China has always upheld a fair and responsible attitude, calling on all parties to exercise restraint and ease the situation, and return to dialogue and negotiation,” it said.

However, the newspaper appeared to support Putin’s demand that Ukraine become a neutral buffer between Russia and Europe and give up the possibility of NATO membership.

“Ultimately, Ukraine should be a bridge between East and West, rather than a frontier of confrontation between major powers,” the Capital News said.

Comments online have called for China to support Russia by purchasing its exports of oil, gas and other goods.

“Let the Russian Embassy sell their goods on livestream. Let’s show them China’s buying power,” said a comment signed Bao Zou Guang Xiao Pang on Weibo. It received 42,000 likes.

A separate comment advocating that China maintain normal trade with Russia, an implicit rejection of sanctions, received nearly 80,000 likes.

Social media platforms have urged users to act responsibly and say they have removed thousands of postings about the attack on Ukraine.

Douyin, a short-video service operated by the Chinese owner of TikTok, said it deleted more than 3,500 videos and 12,100 comments due to “vulgar, war belittling, sensationalist and unfriendly comments.”

The popular WeChat message service also complained about “vulgar posts” that it said have a “negative impact on cyberspace.”

It said some users “took the opportunity to publish bad information about international current affairs,” including comments belittling the war such as crass jokes about “gaining course credits by going to Ukraine and fighting in the war” and asking “Ukrainian beauties to come to China,” the platform said.

WeChat’s post was later shared by a unit of China’s internet watchdog, the Cyberspace Administration of China.

Weibo said it removed more than 4,000 posts that were vulgar and ridiculed war. It said more than 10,000 accounts were closed.

“Peaceful environments do not come easily,” the company said in a social media post. It called on users to “maintain an objective and rational attitude” and take part in discussion “in a reasonable manner.”

Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine

Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was on fire early Friday local time following a Russian attack, according to Ukrainian officials. If it blows up, it will be 10 times larger than Chornobyl! 

"Russian army is firing from all sides upon Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a post on Twitter. "Fire has already broke out. Russians must immediately cease the fire, allow firefighters, establish a security zone."

Mayor Dmytro Orlov of the nearby town of Energodar said that Russian and local Ukrainian forces have engaged in fierce fighting, resulting in casualties, according to Reuters.

“As a result of continuous enemy shelling of buildings and units of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is on fire,” Orlov said, according to Reuters. He added that the situation poses a threat to world security.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in post on Twitter that it was aware of the reported attack on the plant.

IAEA is aware of reports of shelling at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), in contact with Ukrainian authorities about situation, the agency tweeted.

Ukrainian authorities wrote a letter hours earlier to Rafael Mariano Grossi, the Director Deneral of the IAEA, sounding the alarm that Russian tanks had broken through ‘the block-post’ into Enerhodar.

“The battle is going on in the town of Enerhodar and on the road to the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) site,” the letter read, describing the situation as critical, according to the agency.

This comes after Ukrainian officials warned days earlier that Russian troops had increased their military presence near the plant and pointed a multiple rocket launcher at it. Ukraine's ministry of internal affairs said the country's military was headed to the region to defend the plant.

“The armed forces, national guard and civilian militia will do anything to prevent a catastrophe, we are ready to destroy the enemy. But we have to be ready for anything,” Vadim Denisenko, advisor to the minister of internal affairs, said at the time.

Russian forces previously took control of the Chernobyl nuclear site last Thursday, less than 24 hours after the invasion of Ukraine began.

Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops around the still-operating Ukrainian nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhya — Europe’s largest — led to stark warnings from the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, ABC reported.

Any damage to the facilities, either from the fighting or from interruption of normal operations “could have severe consequences, aggravating human suffering and causing environmental harm,” Rafael Grossi, Director of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, told ABC.

“There is nothing normal,” Grossi added, “about the circumstances under which the professionals at Ukraine's four nuclear power plants are managing to keep the reactors that produce half of Ukraine's electricity working."

Ukrainian officials have asked for a 30-kilometer (18-mile) safety zone around nuclear plants.

Today we’ll look at another rising risk from the fighting — this time in Africa. Then we’ll turn to the passage of a pivotal piece of legislation that could allow victims of water contamination at a Marine Corps base have their day in court.

 

Will crippling Russian economy stop Putin?

A week since Russian forces invaded Ukraine; President Vladimir Putin's economy is feeling the effects of global condemnation. Matthew Boesler reports in Bloomberg Businessweek today, the world has weaponized finance to punish Russia, slapping it with sanctions and limiting its access to capital and currency.

That leaves the country facing what Bloomberg Economics calls “four intersecting crises”, which they predict will unite to tip Russia into a deep recession and cool growth elsewhere.

Crisis 1: A bank run provoked by concern over the safety of deposits

Crisis 2: A credit crunch as lenders retrenches amid losses

Crisis 3: A freefalling ruble amid the freezing of reserves, diminished trade and a rush to safety

Crisis 4: A debt default as assets held abroad are frozen and Russia retaliates

 Just how much pain there will be is hard to say, but this chart shows the implications of each shock:

“Historical comparisons illustrate the difficulty of making a precise estimate of the impact on Russia’s economy,” said Bloomberg economists Scott Johnson, Jamie Rush and Tom Orlik. “What’s clear is that it will be big.”

Capital Economics reckons Russia’s gross domestic product will slide to become the 14th-largest economy from 11th.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research of UK estimates the conflict could knock US$1 trillion off the value of the world economy and add 3% to global inflation. 

There will also likely be new chapters especially given it's hard to tell how long the conflict will last. Foreign governments may ultimately impose curbs on energy exports and Russia may slow the supplies itself. China could become a backdoor source of money. Moscow also has US$150 billion of external debt due in the next 12 months, which it may choose not to pay.

As for the rest of the world, Bloomberg Economics says Eastern Europe will be especially hurt, while US$120 oil will pose a material hit to growth in the euro-area. Central banks will face even more complicated choices.

For now though, the people of Russia appear more resigned than panicked, as this story from Moscow shows.

Many Russians, who have seen numerous bank runs over the last three decades, are for now approaching the descending hardship with fatalism. 

“As strange as it sounds, in general there’s no panic at stores or ATMs,” said Elmira, who works in education in Ufa in the Urals region. She declined to give her last name.

“There’s clearly no easy solution, but I wasn’t about to run and buy up EUR or US$ or get something just to spend money,” she said.

 

Western Hypocrisy over Ukraine

Over the past week, the truth has crept out over how Western governments and Western media view the conflict in Ukraine, a country they abandoned, in comparison to the wars waged by the West in particular against West Asian countries. 

It’s very unfortunate, that the crisis in Ukraine has reached the stage of a full-scale military escalation; but the crocodile tears by western leaders and the hypocrisy of the media and authorities will not end this conflict. Ukraine itself has even been abandoned by its allies, in particular the United States and Great Britain.

When people talk about the West, they should be more accurate in saying the hypocrisy that is mostly emerging from the Anglo-sphere or the “five eyes”.

When it comes to the mainstream media, many have criticized the racist attitude of pundits and reporters on mostly American and British platforms who voiced their alarm at a conflict occurring in Ukraine because of its proximity to the West and that Ukrainian refugees are white. 

CBS’s correspondent in Kyiv, Charlie D'Agata, reported, "This isn't a place, with all due respect, like Iraq or Afghanistan that has seen conflict raging for decades ... this is a relatively civilized, relatively European ... city where you wouldn't expect that or hope that (war) to happen”.

Many on social media denounced D'Agata for implying a conflict in a civilized European country means a conflict in an uncivilized West Asian country refers to inferior people. 

“With all due respect,” the conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan was an invasion launched by the United States and when it comes to civilization. And are countries such as Iraq uncivilized? 

Iraqis were preaching to the world about science and algebra at a time when those in the West were painting their faces the color blue and living in the forest. 

According to the UN Refugee Agency Chief, Filippo Grandi, around half a million Ukrainians have unfortunately left their homes and crossed into neighboring countries.

But journalist Daniel Hannan writing for the top British conservative newspaper, Telegraph, was shocked because they seem so like us. That is what makes it so shocking. Ukraine is a European country, he says.

Of course, it is shocking that a conflict should occur in Europe for Daniel Hannan who may have forgotten that World War One and World War Two broke out in Europe. 

NBS reporter Hallie Cobiella did not hold back saying “To put it bluntly, these are not refugees from Syria, these are refugees from Ukraine, they are Christians, they are white, they’re very similar to us”. 

She certainly put it bluntly: if you’re Syrian and neither white nor Christian, then you don’t really matter in this world. 

A commentator on the BBC took it up a notch saying “It’s very emotional for me because I see European people with blue eyes and blonde hair being killed”. What made these remarks even worse is that the BBC presenter failed to challenge the comments. 

Another news anchor Peter Dobbie said what is compelling from looking at Ukrainian refugees is the way they are dressed. He said, “These are prosperous, middle-class people. These are not obviously refugees trying to get away from the Middle East...or North Africa. They look like any European family that you'd live next door to."

Refugees are refugees no matter how they dress and how they look and where they live. The racist bigotry and racism during a conflict is quite shameful. 

But the idea that a conflict inside civilized Europe is so alarming because wars only happen in countries that are uncivilized is such disturbing double standards and hypocritical analyses because all the wars outside Europe, the vast majority of which in West Asia and Africa occurred as a result of Western imperialism, plots, and military adventurism, not by the people themselves. 

British media has also been glorifying Ukrainians fighting Russians, effectively taking sides in a way that they would not dare to cover in other conflicts. For example, the Palestinians resisting Israeli regime forces would not receive such coverage. 

Britain’s Sky News showed a clip of how people are making bombs explaining in detail how to make the devices as effective as possible. If those people making explosive devices were Palestinians they would be branded as terrorists. There are many examples of this hypocrisy over the past few days but the list is too long to cover. 

The fake news propaganda machine in the Anglo-sphere has been working overdrive on mainstream media as well as social media. 

So much so that it’s repeating the same mistakes. One of which is the reported killing again of CNN journalist Bernie Gores, who was reportedly executed by the Taliban in Afghanistan and also now the first American to die in Ukraine. Poor old Bernie, the man is still alive. 

In the UK, the same critics who accused Brexit architect Nigel Farage of wanting to deport Polish people are now calling for the deportation of Russians from Britain. 

The Anglo-sphere claims or tries to preach to others on how the world should distance-sports from politics.

But there have been calls for Russians who own shares in British football team Chelsea for example to be deprived of their ownership and deported. 

This is while Saudi Arabia, which has been pounding Yemen for seven years and killing half a million Yemenis, including 80,000 children, owns two football clubs in Britain. 

The United Arab Emirates which is a partner in the Saudi-led coalition owns Manchester City football club, arguably the richest team in England. The club held an event against the bombing in Ukraine.

The European Union is also at fault as Israel which has illegally occupied the Palestinian Territories and committed countless war crimes and crimes against humanity against the Palestinians for more than half a century is allowed into UEFA but Russia has suddenly been kicked out. 

Nobody has even mentioned the British football club Manchester United, by the way, owned by Americans, despite Washington waging countless wars, invasions, and occupation of other countries. 

The EU claims to be an advocate for freedom of speech has banned Russian media, which means their people will only get a limited narrative of the unfolding events. 

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss announced that she would absolutely support people who want to travel to Ukraine and fight, even though that is illegal in Britain. 

This is while the British government has jailed people who went to fight and defend the elderly, women, and children against the barbaric Daesh terrorist takfiri group in Iraq and Syria. And those that were detained by British authorities are still currently serving time in prison. 

Can you imagine if somebody went to fight for the Palestinians against the Israeli regime, is Liz Truss going to absolutely support them? 

Waving Palestinian flags has been banned at British football stadiums because you shouldn’t mix politics with sports, remember. This is while over the past few days, Ukrainian flags are being handed out at football stadiums. 

The most disturbing aspect about all this is that the West is also pumping more lethal weapons to Ukraine which will only prolong the conflict. Instead of coming up with peace initiatives to resolve the crisis, it appears the west wants the fighting to continue.

Russian hackers may try to block West's access to SWIFT

Ex-IDF Unit 8200 Chief and Team 8 Co-founder Nadav Zafrir, say that in a worst case scenario, Russian hackers may try to block the West from extracting natural gas and from access to the SWIFT banking system in response to sanctions against it.

Referring to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the spin-off conflict with the West in a speech at the cybertech conference in Tel Aviv, Zafrir said, “We don’t know how this is going to unfold. We do know that the Russians probably have, excluding the West, the best cyber capabilities, defensive, but also offensive.”

“Russia may to say to itself, if you are sanctioning our economy, maybe “we, the Russians, can make sure you cannot extract your gas either. If we cannot use SWIFT, we can take you off your SWIFT system as well.”

Earlier, former Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) Director Yigal Unna called Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine frightening.

Unna said, “As we see what is happen now in central Europe, it is more than disturbing, it is frightening. Cyber war is happening as we speak. We haven’t seen the worst yet.”

Describing Russian cyberattacks, he said “We are seeing ‘wipers’ (cyberattacks on websites), attacks against civilians, civilian entities and critical infrastructure, all the things we build and defend as nations.”

He warned that due to war clouds and the fog of war… we still do not see all of the consequences of Russian cyberattacks.

Next, Unna said that the rise in ransomware attacks, the amount of extortion money being demanded by hackers and the rise in the number of victims who are paying the ransoms is disturbing.

He cautioned that Israel is behind many countries in terms of formal legislation and regulation in the cyber sphere (though in the past INCD officials have said that Israel has achieved a lot through informal moves.)

Unna complimented, “All six agencies dealing with cyber security, including his agency, the IDF’s multiple units, the Mossad and the Shin Bet on “working together to win.”

In addition, he said, “Whatever worked yesterday won’t work today or tomorrow.”

He spoke disparagingly of cybersecurity corporate officers who ignored warnings on Thursday of impending cyber-attacks, saying they would deal with it after the weekend,

The attack may come before the weekend, exclaimed Unna, adding if your CISO (Chief Information Security Officer) works only ‘working hours’, well it is 24/7.”

He also took to task the slow pace at which companies deal with public government or company warnings of vulnerabilities on software, saying that the good guys take around 14-21 days to fix publicized cyber gaps, whereas the bad guys need only around nine days to exploit the gap.

“That is five to 12 days too long,” he said.

Also at the conference, President Isaac Herzog complimented Israeli cyber companies for protecting millions around the world from cyber-attacks.

Herzog said that Israel needed to move at the same fast pace as malicious actors in always improving its cyber defenses and resilience.

Also, at the conference, CybergymIEC announced new moves to enhance its connectivity with the Israel Electric Company which will also increase the company’s ability to market and sell its proprietary cyber technology globally.

Chinese purchase of Iranian oil rises to record level

According to a Reuters report, Chinese purchases of Iranian oil have risen to record levels in recent months, exceeding a 2017 peak when the trade was not subject to US sanctions, tanker tracking data shows.

Chinese imports exceeded 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) for January 2022, according to estimates of three tanker trackers, surpassing the 623,000 bpd peak recorded by Chinese customs in 2017 before former US President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018 on Iranian oil exports.

One tracker estimated imports amounted to 780,000 bpd in November-December 2022 at an average.

The ramping up of the purchases by the world's top oil importer comes amid talks between Tehran and world powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal that will lift US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The talks have intensified in recent weeks.

A return of Iranian oil will ease tight global supplies and cool crude prices that have touched US$100/barrel following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Iran is expected to have a strong comeback to the global oil market in case the nuclear deal is revived and the US sanctions on the country are lifted, Bloomberg reported.

According to the report, considering the capacity of Iran’s offshore oil storages, the Islamic Republic will be able to inject millions of barrels of oil into the market as soon as the sanctions are lifted, without the need for boosting the current level of production.

Asian countries including South Korea are likely to be among the first in line to ship in Iranian cargoes.

Bloomberg puts the estimation of the crude oil stored at Iranian stationary tankers at 65 to 80 million barrels, citing the data intelligence firm Kpler.

About four-fifths of the stored crude is condensate, super-light oil that’s a by-product of natural gas extraction. The overall Iranian volume is higher if crude that’s already in transit is included, the report said

 

Britain to ban Russian linked ships from its ports

Britain said on Tuesday it had passed a law that would ban all ships that have any connection to Russia from entering its ports. Britain had said on Monday that it wanted all ports to refuse entry to ships that were Russian flagged, registered or controlled while it drew up new legislation.

"We've just become the first nation to pass a law involving a total ban of all ships with any Russian connection whatsoever from entering British ports," Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said on Twitter.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on Tuesday for more international sanctions against Russia after what he said was a "barbaric" attack on the city of Kharkiv.

"Barbaric Russian missile strikes on the central Freedom Square and residential districts of Kharkiv. (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is unable to break Ukraine down. He commits more war crimes out of fury, murders innocent civilians," Kuleba said on social media.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky officially applied on Monday to join the European Union, with the application being on its way to Brussels for processing, Ukrainian President's Office deputy head Andrij Sybiha wrote on Facebook.

In response, the heads of state for eight different EU member states – Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic – pushed for vastly expediting Ukraine's admission into the bloc. 

"We call on EU member states to consolidate highest political support to Ukraine and enable the EU institutions to conduct steps to immediately grant Ukraine an EU candidate country status and open the process of negotiations," the leaders wrote, as noted on the official website of the Lithuanian president.

This follows Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger telling Politico that Ukraine should have a "special track" towards EU membership.

“They fight for themselves, they fight for us — they fight for freedom,” Heger said told Politico. “We have to realize that they are protecting our system, our values and we have to be together with them. So there is no time to hesitate on this.”

Overall, support for Ukraine is strong in the EU, as noted in a recent op-ed in The Jerusalem Post by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell.

"This is a matter of life and death," Borrell noted. "I am preparing an emergency package to support the Ukrainian armed forces in their fight."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leye told Euronews Sunday that Ukraine is "one of us and we want them in the European Union."

Several European nations have already sent considerable funds and munitions towards Ukraine, as well as levying sanctions against Moscow, as have their allies abroad such as the US.

As the war enters its sixth day, around 350,000 people have entered Poland from Ukraine since Russia invaded the country, a Polish deputy interior minister said on Tuesday.

"Over the last 24 hours 100,000 people crossed the Polish-Ukrainian border," Maciej Wasik told public broadcaster Polskie Radio 1. "In total, since Thursday, there have already been 350,000 refugees."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday morning that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had offered his country more support in the form of sanctions and weapons.

"In our call, Secretary Blinken affirmed that the US support for Ukraine remains unfaltering," Kuleba said on Twitter. "I underscored that Ukraine craves for peace, but as long as we are under Russia's assault we need more sanctions and weapons. The US Secretary of State assured me of both. We coordinated further steps."

The prospects of a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine crisis are slim at the moment, Britain's Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said on Tuesday.

Asked on LBC Radio whether Russian billionaire businessman Roman Abramovich, who has accepted a Ukrainian request to help negotiate an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, could be key to the solution, Raab responded: "Who knows?"

Shipping fallout post Ukraine invasion

According to Seatrade Maritime News, the hike in cost of fuel reflects the most immediate impact on shipping of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, in the weeks ahead, analysts predict broad fallout from Russia’s aggression which has generated widespread condemnation and protests too from ordinary Russian people.

There is the thorny issue of food prices. Between them, Russia and Ukraine produce about 30% of the world’s wheat and about a fifth of its corn. Disruption to the supply chain could produce extra ton-miles for bulk carrier owners but will inevitably mean higher food prices. This development follows a spell in which consumers in many countries have watched with dismay as living costs spiral. Supply disruption, fuel price hikes, longer voyages, and more expensive sea transport will only add to these inflationary pressures.

The bunker price hikes did not mirror the leap in spot crude prices which saw Brent breach US$105 and West Texas Intermediate flirt with US$100, increases of around 8%. Global average bunker prices across 20 bunkering ports, compiled by Ship&Bunker, clocked the price of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) at US$774, up almost 3% on Wednesday’s US$752 figure. Conventional heavy fuel oil (HFO) prices rose by a similar margin, with the 20-port average climbing to US$597.

However, the averages disguised marked regional differentials. VLSFO prices in Rotterdam shot up 4.5% to hit US$731.50, but only 2.3% in Singapore, settling at US$769. Corresponding HFO prices rose by close to 6% in Rotterdam, ending up at US$559, but climbed 3.6% in Singapore, to US$597.  

Spot oil prices at 1000 hrs London time on Friday morning had eased back, with Brent pitched at about US$100 and West Texas Intermediate at US$93.50. However, these are still the highest energy prices since 2014 and reflect an increase of more than 60% since February 2021 when the average price of Brent crude was US$62.

Meanwhile, amid increasingly hostile tit-for-tat moves by Russia and its NATO opponents, LNG prices are set to rise significantly, some say dramatically. Europe relies on Russia for about a third of its gas. Experts point out that there may be some scope to import more gas from the US and other producers in the Middle East, for example, but not on a scale that will compensate.

The result should prove beneficial for owners of LNG tankers that are not already committed on long-term contracts. Vessels trading spot or short-term are likely to benefit from very high rates in the months to come, and possibly longer. Moreover, there is almost no scope to raise LNG tanker supply before the middle of the decade because specialist builders are fully booked.

There is the thorny issue of food prices. Between them, Russia and Ukraine produce about 30% of the world’s wheat and about a fifth of its corn. Disruption to the supply chain could produce extra ton-miles for bulk carrier owners but will inevitably mean higher food prices. This development follows a spell in which consumers in many countries have watched with dismay as living costs spiral. Supply disruption, fuel price hikes, longer voyages, and more expensive sea transport will only add to these inflationary pressures.   

 

Ukrainian crisis being fueled by owners of military complexes

Reportedly, Ukrainian ambassador Oksana Markarova told a bipartisan group of senators Monday that her country needs more help from the United States and could run out of military supplies to fend off a Russian invasion.   

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, who attended the meeting with roughly a dozen Republican and Democratic colleagues, said everyone in the room was unified in support of doing more for the country, which Russian troops invaded Thursday on several fronts.  

“It’s no secret they need more help. They’ve got the weapons they need right now but they’re going to run out of what they need soon so we’ve got to get a supplemental [spending bill] passed quickly,” Chris Murphy told reporters after the meeting.   

Murphy said a looming humanitarian crisis along the Polish-Ukrainian border and dwindling military supplies are putting pressure on Congress to act quickly.  

Senators say the need to pass an emergency spending bill to provide weapons and humanitarian aid is becoming more important than passing sanctions legislation, something that senators were negotiating before the Presidents’ Day recess.  

“I think you’re talking about something in the neighborhood of US$10 billion to do the job,” said Murphy, a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. “This is the most dangerous moment since the Cuban missile crisis.”

Markarova confirmed reports that Russian forces are increasingly targeting civilian buildings and warned that civilian casualties are likely to mount.   

“She talked about two five-story buildings being hit today full of civilians,” Murphy said.  

Ben Cardin, who also attended the meeting, said Ukrainian forces are “well-organized, doing the best they can but they need additional help.”  

“They’re managing their equipment as best they can. They do need more help, absolutely. They certainly need more anti-tank and anti-aircraft type equipment because the numbers from Russia are so large,” he said.  

Other Ukrainian leaders on Monday pressed the House Ukrainian Caucus to back a no-fly zone over the country, warning that casualties could mushroom without stronger foreign intervention. 

However, senators who spoke to reporters after meeting with Markarova said they did not hear her request that the US and its NATO allies impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which could risk a direct military confrontation with US forces.  

Murphy earlier in the day warned that trying to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be dangerous.  

“There’s been a lot of loose talk from smart people about ‘close air support’ and ‘no fly zones’ for Ukraine. Let’s just be clear what that is — the US and Russia at war. It’s a bad idea and Congress would never authorize it,” he tweeted.  

Murphy later told reporters that the military conflict could quickly escalate in a dangerous way.  

Schumer after the meeting said there’s strong bipartisan support to help Ukraine fend off the Russian invaders.  

“In that room, from one end to the other, we want to help Ukraine in every way that we can and they’re valiant. They’re amazing and we’re exploring all the ways that we can help them,” he said. 

But one major potential complication is the need to pass an omnibus spending bill to fund the US federal government beyond March 11.  

“The problem is we need a budget to get a supplemental,” Murphy said. “We’ve got to get serious in the next couple days about getting a budget done so that we can have a supplemental to that budget.”  

“I’m worried that our petty fights over the border are going to prevent us from getting a deal on a budget and thus a deal on the supplemental spending bill for Ukraine,” he added. 

That could delay congressional action on more assistance for Ukraine.  

Richard Shelby, the top-ranking Republican on the Appropriations Committee, said he wants a supplemental spending package for Ukraine to move separately from an omnibus spending package.  

 “I think it ought not to be part of the omnibus but ought to be moving at the same time. Because it’s a separate thing, we’re talking about emergency money as opposed to the regular order,” he said.   

Asked if the omnibus spending package can get done by the March 11 deadline, Shelby said, “I don’t know.” 

“We’re still talking. We’re making progress. Sometimes it’s a step forward and a step sideways,” he said.  

 

US imposes sanctions on Russian central bank

The Treasury Department on Monday banned transactions with the Central Bank of Russia and the Russian foreign investment fund, imposing strict financial sanctions on a Russian economy. 

The new penalties effectively cut the Russian central bank from the US$ and severely limit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to dampen the blow of previous sanctions. 

While the US has imposed similar sanctions on North Korea, Venezuela and Iran, there is no precedent for so many countries imposing such strict penalties on an economy the size of Russia's. Economic and financial experts warn Russia could respond with its own limits on oil and natural gas exports, which could cause energy prices to spike after years of rising energy costs across the world.

US individuals and businesses are now unable to make any financial transitions with or on behalf of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The sanctions also ban any foreign financial firm from sending US$ to the Russian central bank, finance ministry and wealth fund.

The Treasury Department said it would make exceptions for certain energy-related payments in a bid to prevent a sharp spike in global oil and natural gas prices. But US officials said Monday the new penalties would still push the Russian economy deeper into a collapse they blame on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our strategy, to put it simply, is to make sure that the Russian economy goes backwards as long as President Putin decides to go forward with his invasion of Ukraine,” said a senior Biden administration official on a call with reporters.

The US and Western allies announced Saturday they would target more than US$600 billion in reserves held by Russia’s central bank — which they described as Putin’s war chest to stave off sanctions. The announcement of pending sanctions alone caused the ruble to drop more than 30 percent against the dollar Monday and prompted the Russian central bank to hike its baseline interest rate.

Freezing Russia’s foreign reserves will prevent the country bolstering the value of the ruble by selling the currency of other nations. As the value of the ruble plummets, Russians will face severe challenges affording food and other basic necessities. The new penalties could also limit Russia's ability to stabilize major banks after they were cut off from the global financial system in previous rounds of sanctions.

“This is a vicious feedback loop that's triggered by Putin’s own choices and accelerated by his own aggression. It's a very raw deal Putin is giving to the Russian people, as the world's disconnects Russia from the global financial system and all its benefits,” said a senior Biden administration official.

The central bank sanctions are the latest and most significant step in an unprecedented campaign to derail the Russian economy and force Putin to reconsider the domestic consequences of attacking Ukraine.

Despite initial wariness among European nations, the U.S. and its allies have largely locked Russia out of the global financial system and international commerce with few exceptions for the energy sector and humanitarian aid. Even Switzerland, which has historically remained neutral in geopolitical conflicts, is poised to freeze Russian assets held in its banks.

 

Russia enjoys edge over United States

The global reliance on Russian petroleum and natural gas is a major hurdle for Joe Biden, President of United States and Western allies as they attempt to dial up economic pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Sanctions on Russian companies and asset freezes, are leading to a lot of nervousness among people in the global system. You could argue that even though the sanctions aren’t really targeting Russian crude ... they’re already having an impact.

The US and European Union are reluctant to target the Russian energy sector and drive oil and gas prices even higher after months of rising costs for consumers. The dynamic gives Putin important leverage and could undermine unity among the US and its European allies in how they respond to his invasion of Ukraine.

Biden and European leaders have imposed strict new penalties on Russian banks, state-owned companies and business leaders close to Putin — and on Friday announced sanctions on Putin himself. But Western allies have avoided taking steps that could interrupt access to Russian oil and natural gas. While fossil fuels make up more than half of the US total imports from Russia, President Biden said that the country would avoid sanctioning them.

“In our sanctions package, we specifically designed to allow energy payments to continue,” he said.

Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, after the US and Saudi Arabia, and the second-biggest natural gas producer, after the US. Oil and mineral fuels, such as petroleum, coal and natural gas, make up a majority of its exports. While oil is a global commodity, the natural gas market is more localized, meaning that Europe and Asia are its biggest markets.  

“Energy sanctions that directly targeted Russian crude or product exports — they would hit the Russian economy harder than any other measures, but they also present the most risks to the global energy markets,” said Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at Energy Security and Climate Change Program. 

Asked Thursday during a press briefing about oil, Daleep Singh, the White House’s Deputy National Security Adviser for international economics, said the administration didn’t want to disrupt the energy market at this point. 

“When it comes to energy, this is the one area where Russia has systemic importance in the global economy. We’re not going to do anything which causes an unintended disruption to the flow of energy as the global economic recovery is still underway.” Daleep Singh

As a net exporter of oil and natural gas with a sturdy strategic reserve, the US has more flexibility to handle rising prices than its European allies, who could face severe energy shortages if Russia pulls back its supply. Sanctions on the Russian energy sector could also backfire if Russia can offset lower sales with higher prices. 

“Russia has been known to use energy as a weapon to cut exports, sometimes under the guise of additional maintenance or other issues,” said Rachel Ziemba, founder of macroeconomic advisory firm Ziemba Insights.

“Even to the extent that Europe and the US have said, ‘Well, we don't want to impact or impede too much domestic short-term energy trade,’ We don't know exactly what the Russian entities will do,” she added.

But because oil is a global commodity, less availability of Russian oil could impact US prices.

“I think that’s why the Biden administration and especially the Europeans are hesitant to impose direct sanctions on the oil sector, because it is somewhat self-defeating because you end up harming European and US consumer and businesses if there’s not enough spare capacity or strategic reserves or alternative supplies to provide a medium-term alternative to that Russian oil,” said Robert Johnston, a senior adjunct scholar at Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy. 

And the issue is politically difficult for the Biden administration, as Republicans have repeatedly criticized him over high gasoline prices even though presidents have a limited impact on its cost. 

Putin promised unprecedented “consequences” for nations that try to hinder Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and both Biden and his European allies face serious domestic blowback if sanctions cause a massive energy shock. US gasoline prices rose 40% year over year in January, and an interruption to global supplies would add even more fuel to inflation — particularly if both the U.S. and Europe lean more on American energy sources. 

"Vladimir Putin realizes what we all know, which is that a good chunk of allies in Europe are highly dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. Even if we impose these huge sanctions, they're only sustainable for American allies for a certain amount of time,” said Jamil Jaffer, founder and Executive Director of George Mason University’s National Security Institute. 

With Biden hamstrung by Putin’s leverage over the energy sector, the US has dialed up the pressure on Russia through its own power over the global financial system.

The Treasury Department on Thursday announced new sanctions meant to limit Russia’s financial sector and ability to raise money through global markets, including severe restrictions on major Russian banks with limited carve outs for energy transactions and humanitarian aid.

The new sanctions block any US-based financial firm from processing payments and transactions for Sverbank, effectively preventing Russia’s largest financial institution from access to the US$. The Treasury Department also blocked all business with VTB Bank, the country’s second-largest financial firm, along with its subsidiaries and three other Russian banks.

More than a dozen state-owned Russian firms and wealthy business leaders have also been blocked from the US financial system, days after Biden imposed a ban on any purchase or sale of Russian debt by US firms. 

The sanctions not only prevent Russian firms from most business within the US, but also makes it nearly impossible to conduct transactions in US$. Roughly 80% of the US$46 billion in foreign transactions processed each day by Russian banks use US$, according to the Treasury Department.

Financial sanctions imposed so far have already roiled the Russian economy and markets. Russian stocks crashed earlier this week, borrowing costs have spiked and the value of the Russian ruble fell to its lowest level in history — to worth just more than a US penny.

“This is not the outcome we wanted,” said White House Press Secretary Jen Psak during a Thursday briefing.

“It's both a tragedy for the people of Ukraine and a very raw deal for the Russian people. But Putin’s war of choice has required that we do what we said and to ensure this will be a strategic failure,” she said.

And while oil was left out, some noted that sanctions on the financial sector could have indirect impacts on the country’s energy sector.

“If you look at the pricing for Urals blend, which is the main export blend that goes to Europe from Russia, Urals blend is already trading at a big differential … buyers are very wary,” Cahill said.  

 

Germany to send anti-tank weapons and missiles to Ukraine

Germany will provide anti-tank weapons and surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Saturday. This is a major reversal of Berlin’s longstanding policy of banning weapon exports to battle zones.

“The Russian attack marks a turning point. It is our duty to do our best to help Ukraine defend against the invading army of Putin. That’s why we’re supplying 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to our friends in Ukraine,” he wrote in a Twitter post.

US President Joe Biden had authorized an additional US$350 million in military assistance from Pentagon inventories, including anti-armor, small arms, various munitions, body armor, and related equipment. The White House also reportedly asked Congress to provide US$6.4 billion in extra funds to assist Ukraine.

 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Germany’s change of stance: “Keep it up, Chancellor Olaf Scholz! Anti-war coalition in action!”

Berlin Saturday authorized NATO partners the Netherlands and Estonia to deliver German-made weapons to Ukraine.

The batch of weapons included 400 RPGs from the Netherlands and old GDR howitzers from Estonia.

Germany has a long-standing policy of not exporting weapons to war zones, rooted partly in its bloody 20th-century history and resulting pacifism. Countries aiming to pass on German weapons exports need to apply for approval in Berlin first.

Scholz had repeatedly referred to this policy in recent weeks when refusing to deliver weapons to Ukraine.

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine is entering the third day, fighting broke out at the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital city Kyiv, which is regarded as the primary goal of the Russian forces.

United States and UK officials said the Russian forces were about 18 miles, or 30 kilometers, from the city center.

The speed of the advance has been slowed “likely as a result of acute logistical difficulties and strong Ukrainian resistance”, the UK’s Ministry of Defense said.

However, a Pentagon official warned the situation may change rapidly.

“It’s a battlefield and events on the battlefield are dynamic and they can change very, very quickly,” the official said.

More than 100,000 Russian troops have entered Ukraine, Zelensky said in a Twitter post.

United States and allies getting ready to kick certain Russian banks out of SWIFT

The White House on Saturday announced that the United States and allies will kick certain Russian banks out of a major international banking system, a significant step in a bid to cripple the Russian economy in response to its invasion of Ukraine. 

The Biden administration and European allies agreed to cut Russia out of access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a rapid shift from just days ago when it appeared such a move was unlikely in the near future.

The US and European nations also committed to imposing measures to prevent the Russian Central Bank from using its reserves to undermine sanctions and boost the ruble.

The announcement came via a joint statement from the leaders of the United States, the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada. The leaders called Russian attacks on Ukraine "an assault on fundamental international rules and norms that have prevailed since the Second World War, which we are committed to defending."

"We stand with the Ukrainian people in this dark hour. Even beyond the measures we are announcing today, we are prepared to take further measures to hold Russia to account for its attack on Ukraine," they said in the statement.

Banks across the world use SWIFT to finalize transactions and transfers. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT would make it incredibly difficult for its banks to operate efficiently but could also wreak economic havoc for European nations that depend on Russian oil and natural gas exports. 

If a Russian bank that has been removed from SWIFT wants to make a transaction with a bank located outside of Russia, it will need to use the telephone or a fax machine, a senior administration official told reporters.

Biden on Thursday had indicated kicking Russia out of SWIFT was not part of the initial rounds of sanctions because not all European allies were on board with the measure. But as fighting intensified in Ukraine in recent days and Russia moved close to the capital of Kyiv, pressure grew for Western nations to offer a tougher response.

Additional measures announced on Saturday included limitations on the use of so-called golden passports that allow wealthy Russians with connections to the Kremlin to become citizens of other countries and access their financial systems.

The US and its allies also said they would announce a task force to ensure the effective implementation of the coordinated sanctions being imposed on Russia.

The Biden administration and European allies have unveiled multiple rounds of sanctions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began late Wednesday night. The US has sanctioned multiple Russian financial institutions to freeze their US assets as well as a list of several Russian oligarchs.

The White House on Friday announced additional sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin and a dozen of his top advisers, freezing any of their assets in the United States.

Imposing sanctions on Russia's central bank could crush the country's economy and financial sector; depending on how severely Western allies restrict its assets.

With limited access to its foreign reserves, Russia could face serious challenges keeping targeted banks afloat and mitigating the economic impact of sanctions. A total freeze on foreign reserves would likely devastate the Russian economy, cause a domestic financial crisis and leave the ruble worthless.

The United States has targeted the central banks of only North Korea, Iran and Venezuela with sanctions — nations with limited leverage over the global economy. Taking action against the Russian central bank could pose its own economic risks for the US and allies. The Biden administration and western allies have been wary of any sanctions that could limit access to Russian petroleum or natural gas exports.

"Our calculus is we have two choices," the senior administration official told reporters on Saturday. "Either we continue to ratchet costs higher to make this a strategic failure for President Putin, or the alternative, which is unacceptable, and that would be allowing unchecked aggression in the core of Europe."

 

Ukraine left stranded to face Russia

In the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Kiev faces a barrage of explosions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that his country has been left stranded in an escalating tension with Russia.

"We have been left alone to defend our state," Zelensky said in a post-midnight video address to the nation. "Who is ready to fight alongside us? I don't see anyone. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee of NATO membership? Everyone is afraid.”

He said that Russian forces had reached Kiev and asked residents to be watchful and adhere to a curfew.

Despite Russia's designation of him as target number one, Ukraine's President stated he and his family will remain in the country.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted in a statement that Russia will come to terms with Ukraine in case it agreed to stay neutral, and not maintain any Western weapons on its territory.

Peskov emphasized that discussions about the terms of surrender would generally involve Ukraine's demilitarization and denazification.

President Zelensky said that he is not frightened to discuss neutrality, despite the fact that his plea for NATO membership remained rebuffed by European leaders.

While Ukraine was left to face Russia, mercy appeals from the west have started pouring in.

The UN refugee agency was prompt to declare that approximately 100,000 people have been internally displaced; with thousands more having fled Ukraine since the fighting began.

The European Union launched what it called “the harshest package of sanctions” on Moscow early Friday targeting 70% of the Russian financial industry and critical state-owned enterprises.

In a press conference, President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that a fresh round of sanctions "will impose massive and severe consequences on Russia for its action, in close coordination with our partners and allies.” She added that Russian assets and banks' access to bloc’s financial markets will be frozen and blocked. 

On Thursday, the United States unveiled a fresh round of sanctions on Moscow, targeting five main Russian banks. Consequently, Canada, Australia, and UK have taken similar steps.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Friday that Paris remained useful to leave this path open so that the day when the conditions can be fulfilled, we can obtain a cessation of hostilities.

The US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi noted that lawmakers demand to provide Ukraine with US$600 million for lethal defense weapons.

"What we're doing with Ukraine is making sure that we have humanitarian assistance to help the people; that we have lethal defense weapons going into Ukraine to the tune of US$600 million for them to fight their own fight," she told reporters in San Francisco.

Moral of the story is, “The outcomes of trust on the Western countries bear no fruit. The western countries especially the United States have over and over proven that they will always lay out conditions to trigger a kind of crisis in various countries to capitalize on their weaknesses. Once fallen, these will be left stranded”.

Ukraine export disruptions likely to take edible prices to new highs

The recent dramatic rally in edible prices sparked by the Russia-Ukraine crisis is signaling more pain ahead for grocery shoppers already feeling the strain of soaring food costs.

Prices of staples from wheat to edible oils have rocketed to fresh highs on worries about supply disruptions in the Black Sea region. Ukraine is the world’s second-biggest grains shipper and Russia often tops the ranking for wheat exports. Together they also account for about 80% of sunflower oil trade.

Any disruptions to flows would quickly ripple through to buyers in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, boosting costs for bread and meat and potentially increasing demand for supplies from the Americas or Europe. Ukraine is a major seller of corn to China, and Russia sends wheat all around the world.

With wheat prices hitting the highest since 2008, soybeans touching a nine-year high, and palm and soybean oil near unprecedented levels, consumers are set to feel the pinch as those cost increases make their way to supermarket shelves. Expect more expensive pasta, chocolate, margarine, shampoo — you name it. 

While it’s true that commodity prices tend to be only a small proportion of the prices of final goods, the problem is being compounded by a supply chain that’s been stretched to its limit. Cargo capacity is tight, freight rates are still high, labor is expensive, while geopolitical tensions and an energy crunch are further boosting costs of fertilizers key to growing crops.

“Supply inelasticity is likely to continue as a result of expensive fertilizers, shrinking farmer margins and limited acreage expansion,” said Oscar Tjakra, a senior analyst at Rabobank in Singapore. “We should see these inflationary pressures upstream move along the supply chain to reach consumers in 2022.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has commodity traders watching the country’s vast network of infrastructure. Ports are dotted along the Sea of Azov — which is connected to the Black Sea by a strait that runs between Russia and Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 — and on the Black Sea coast further west. 

Rich, fertile soils have helped Ukraine become the second-largest grain shipper and the Black Sea region to be known as the world’s breadbasket. The southwestern ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi, Mykolayiv and Chornomorsk handle almost 80% of Ukraine’s grain exports, according to researcher UkrAgroConsult.

 

China will invade Taiwan taking cue from Putin, warns Trump

Donald Trump former President of United States has warned that the Chinese regime will invade Taiwan after seeing Russian troops move into Ukraine.

Such an invasion against self-governing Taiwan will occur because Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are an example of twin sisters, Trump said during an interview on The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. “China is going to be next,” Trump said.

“They’re waiting ’til after the Olympics. Now the Olympics ended, and look at your stopwatch, right? No, he wants that just like … It’s almost like twin sisters right here,” he added.

“Because you have one that wants Taiwan, I think, equally badly,” Trump added. “Somebody said, ‘Who wants it more?’ I think probably equally badly.”

He suggested that neither Putin nor Xi would make a move if he were the president.

“Putin would have never done it, and Xi would have never done it,” the former president said.

Putin and Xi met in China earlier this month. After their meeting, they released a lengthy statement, claiming that the two bordering nations enjoy strong ties in which there would be no limits in their partnership and no forbidden areas of cooperation.

Xi—who is likely to be handed an unprecedented third term in office at an important Chinese Communist Party meeting later this year—vowed in October last year that reunification of Taiwan with China would “definitely be realized.”

On February 23 this year, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen ordered the island’s national security agencies and military forces to ramp up their efforts to monitor and provide early warning of military developments in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas, following a high-level national security meeting on developments in Ukraine.

China and Taiwan are separated by the Taiwan Strait, which is about 80 miles wide at its narrowest point.

The Chinese regime sees Taiwan as part of its territory that must be united with the mainland, by force if necessary. However, Taiwan is a de facto independent country, where Taiwanese people elect their own government officials through democratic elections.

Republican Michael McCaul also hinted a connection between Ukraine and Taiwan, while speaking to ABC earlier this month.

“Xi is watching what is happening in Ukraine, our adversaries are watching,” McCaul said. “If Putin can go into Ukraine with no resistance, certainly, Xi will take Taiwan. He’s always wanted this.”

In light of its ambitions toward Taiwan and the broader Asia–Pacific region, Beijing has been engaged in an aggressive program of military modernization. Part of this includes expanding its nuclear arsenal, with a 2021 Pentagon report estimating that the regime might have 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and as many as 1,000 by 2030.

The report pointed out different military actions the Chinese regime might deploy against Taiwan, including air and maritime blockades, precision airstrikes, and a full-scale amphibious invasion.

In recent years, Taiwan has been bearing the brunt of persistent Chinese military harassment, with military jets flying into the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on a regular basis. According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, the latest incursion happened on February 23, when two J-16 military jets entered the island’s southwestern ADIZ, prompting the island to deploy its military aircraft and air defense missile systems in response.

A recent survey conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found that most Taiwanese do not believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would lead to Beijing attacking the self-governing island. The survey polled 1,079 people for two days ending on February 15.

The survey found that 62.9% said it was either unlikely or impossible that China would attack Taiwan. Meanwhile, 26.6% said it was either very likely or fairly possible that China would attack the island after Russia invades Ukraine.

On February 24, Putin declared a special military operation in Ukraine. Soon afterward, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky announced martial law and said Russia had conducted strikes on Ukraine’s military infrastructure and border guards.

Russian aggression drew immediate criticism from Republican Ashley Hinson. Writing on Twitter, she stated: “I strongly condemn Putin’s unprovoked military attack on Ukraine. Americans stand with the Ukrainian people who deserve freedom and peace.”

“The world is watching us. We must ensure that our allies, like Taiwan, know they can rely on the US,” Hinson added.

The reasons United States wishes to bring Ukraine under NATO clan

Ever since Ukraine debacle has started I am being asked, why Russia wishes to subjugate Ukraine? Today I read a post in which reasons were given Russia wants to conquer Ukraine. Aren’t these the same reasons United States also wishes to bring Ukraine in the NATO clan. The game resembles old cowboy gun bout, where the winner was who pulled the trigger first.

Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd in Europe and 10th in the world in titanium ore reserves;
2nd in the world in explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world’s reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd in Europe in mercury ore reserves;
3rd in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an agricultural country:
1st in Europe in arable land area;
3rd in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world’s volume);
1st in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd in the world in barley production and 4th in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th in the world in wheat exports;
9th in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an industrialized country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
2nd in Europe’s and 4th largest natural gas pipeline system in the world (142.5 billion cubic meters of gas throughput capacity in the EU);
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd in Europe and 11th in the world in rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd in the world (after the US and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world’s largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th in the world in clay exports
4th in the world in titanium exports
8th in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

(Source: Andriy Futey)

United States to sanction Russian banks

President Joe Biden on Thursday said the United States would sanction major Russian banks and impose export controls on Russia to curtail Russian high-tech imports as part of a coordinated effort with allies to penalize the Kremlin for its military attack against Ukraine. 

However, the latest round of sanctions did not move to kick Russia out of the SWIFT international banking system, despite pleas from Ukraine and some members of Congress.

Biden condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin for ordering the attack against Ukraine and said that his actions would cost Russia dearly’.

“Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war, and now he and his country will bear the consequences,” Biden said. 

“Putin will be a pariah on the international stage,” Biden said later. 

Biden said the sanctions would target Russian banks holding a combined US$1 trillion in assets, including Russia’s two largest financial institutions, Sberbank and VTB Bank. He said the US would also impose sanctions on additional Russian elites with links to the Kremlin.

The Treasury Department said in a release that the administration would impose sanctions on VTB and Sberbank, cutting them off from processing payments through the US financial system.

The Biden administration is also imposing sanctions on three other Russian financial institutions: Otkritie, Novikom and Sovcom. 

The sanctions also target 10 Russian individuals, including those close to Putin and elites working in the financial sector, according to the Treasury Department. 

The export controls will restrict Russia’s ability to import sensitive US technology – like semiconductors, lasers, and sensors – and particularly target Russia’s defense, aviation, and maritime sectors, according to a White House fact sheet. Biden said that the restrictions, coupled with actions by European allies, would cut off more than half of Russia’s high-tech imports. 

 “It will be a major hit to Putin’s long-term strategic ambitions,” Biden said.

 “I will not be diplomatic on this. Everyone who now doubts whether Russia should be banned from SWIFT has to understand that the blood of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children will be on their hands too,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, tweeted in advance of Biden’s remarks.

Biden cited concerns among some European allies about taking that step but argued the penalties being put in place were severe enough to make a difference. He indicated that kicking Russia out of the system could be a possibility in the future. 

“The sanctions we imposed exceed SWIFT,” Biden said in response to a reporter’s question about excluding the penalty. “The sanctions we imposed exceed anything that’s ever been done. The sanctions we imposed have generated two-thirds of the world joining us. They are profound sanctions. Let’s have a conversation in another month or so to see if they’re working.”

Nor did the sanctions package target the Russian oil or natural gas industries, which are major drivers of the Russian economy. European countries are dependent on Russia for gas.

White House Deputy national Security Adviser Daleep Singh told reporters at a briefing later Thursday that the administration intentionally scoped the sanctions to deliver a severe impact on the Russian economy while minimizing impact on the US and European allies.  

He said the administration would not do anything that causes an unintended disruption in global energy markets, including the flow of gas from Russia to the world.  

The Biden administration also announced plans to impose sanctions on individuals and entities in Belarus, accusing the nation of supporting and facilitating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Biden made the announcement of new sanctions as the Russian assault on Ukraine was very much underway.

On Putin’s orders, the Russian military attacked Ukraine from multiple directions overnight Wednesday. The Pentagon has warned that the assault is only the first part of a multistage invasion.

“It is likely that you will see this unfold in multiple phases. How many? How long? We don't know. But what we're seeing are initial phases of a large-scale invasion,” a senior defense official told reporters on Thursday, before Biden spoke to the nation.

“They’re making a move on Kyiv,” the official said. 

The Biden administration has been working for weeks to develop a comprehensive sanctions package in the event of a Russian invasion, threatening harsh penalties as a means of deterring Moscow from launching a renewed invasion of Ukraine. 

But the threats, coupled with US and European diplomatic overtures, did not convince Putin to deescalate the situation. 

Biden imposed a first tranche of sanctions after Putin recognized two regions in eastern Ukraine as independent earlier this week.

Biden said Thursday it would take time for Putin to feel the economic pain of the penalties and suggested that it could cause the Russian leader to change course on his military campaign.

“He’s going to begin to see the effect of the sanctions,” Biden said. “It will so weaken his country that he’ll have to make a very, very difficult choice as to whether to continue to move toward being a second-rate power or, in fact, respond."

Biden condemned the assault in a statement late Wednesday, but his comments Thursday were his first extended remarks on the events unfolding in Eastern Europe. 

The announcement of new sanctions mirrored penalties unveiled by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson roughly an hour before Biden’s address. 

The White House has been closely coordinating with allies on the response to Russia’s military buildup and subsequent invasion of Ukraine.

 “Our actions, taken in coordination with partners and allies, will degrade Russia’s ability to project power and threaten the peace and stability of Europe,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement Thursday afternoon.

“We are united in our efforts to hold Russia accountable for its further invasion of Ukraine while mitigating impacts to Americans and our partners.  If necessary, we are prepared to impose further costs on Russia in response to its egregious actions.”