Ukraine export disruptions likely to take edible prices to new highs

The recent dramatic rally in edible prices sparked by the Russia-Ukraine crisis is signaling more pain ahead for grocery shoppers already feeling the strain of soaring food costs.

Prices of staples from wheat to edible oils have rocketed to fresh highs on worries about supply disruptions in the Black Sea region. Ukraine is the world’s second-biggest grains shipper and Russia often tops the ranking for wheat exports. Together they also account for about 80% of sunflower oil trade.

Any disruptions to flows would quickly ripple through to buyers in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, boosting costs for bread and meat and potentially increasing demand for supplies from the Americas or Europe. Ukraine is a major seller of corn to China, and Russia sends wheat all around the world.

With wheat prices hitting the highest since 2008, soybeans touching a nine-year high, and palm and soybean oil near unprecedented levels, consumers are set to feel the pinch as those cost increases make their way to supermarket shelves. Expect more expensive pasta, chocolate, margarine, shampoo — you name it. 

While it’s true that commodity prices tend to be only a small proportion of the prices of final goods, the problem is being compounded by a supply chain that’s been stretched to its limit. Cargo capacity is tight, freight rates are still high, labor is expensive, while geopolitical tensions and an energy crunch are further boosting costs of fertilizers key to growing crops.

“Supply inelasticity is likely to continue as a result of expensive fertilizers, shrinking farmer margins and limited acreage expansion,” said Oscar Tjakra, a senior analyst at Rabobank in Singapore. “We should see these inflationary pressures upstream move along the supply chain to reach consumers in 2022.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has commodity traders watching the country’s vast network of infrastructure. Ports are dotted along the Sea of Azov — which is connected to the Black Sea by a strait that runs between Russia and Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 — and on the Black Sea coast further west. 

Rich, fertile soils have helped Ukraine become the second-largest grain shipper and the Black Sea region to be known as the world’s breadbasket. The southwestern ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi, Mykolayiv and Chornomorsk handle almost 80% of Ukraine’s grain exports, according to researcher UkrAgroConsult.