Saturday, 26 March 2022

United States and allies have declared hybrid war on Russia: says Kremlin

The United States and its Western allies have declared a hybrid ‘total war’ against Russia said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

“Today a real hybrid war, a ‘total war’ has been declared against us. This term, which was used by Nazi Germany, is now used by many European politicians when they explain what they want to do to the Russian Federation,” Lavrov said, according to state-run media.

He claimed, “And their goals are not hidden, they want to destroy, to break, to strangle the Russian economy, and Russia as a whole.”

“The desire by the West to maintain its dominance in international affairs, to subjugate everything and everyone and return to a unipolar world … these are, of course, illusions,” Lavrov also remarked, adding, “In fact, we are witnessing the culmination of the policy of containment of Russia, which the West has pursued for a long time.”

Lavrov’s comments appear to be an escalation in rhetoric from Russia’s leadership against the United States and NATO allies.

Since February 24, the start of the conflict, the United States, Europe, Japan, and other like-minded nations have placed heavy sanctions on Russian economy, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lavrov, and other top Kremlin officials.

On Thursday, the White House announced even more sanctions against hundreds of Russian lawmakers, defense companies, and other entities.

The United States also placed a ban on Russian oil imports, although European Union countries have not done so, citing the bloc’s heavy dependence on Russian energy products.

On Thursday, about three-fourths of the United Nations General Assembly voted to demand aid access and civilian protection in Ukraine and claimed Russia was creating what they said is a dire humanitarian situation in Ukraine. 

Ukraine and Western allies have claimed Moscow is attacking civilians indiscriminately, which the Kremlin has denied.

But Russian ex-President and Deputy Head of Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claimed Friday that the sanctions won’t sway the Kremlin. 

The sanctions will only consolidate the Russian society and not cause popular discontent with the authorities, Medvedev told Russia’s RIA news agency in an interview.

“Let us ask ourselves, can any of these major businessmen have even the tiniest quantum of influence of the position of the country’s leadership?” Medvedev said. “I openly tell you: no, no way.”

 

War in Ukraine to wipe out 15 years of Russian economic growth

In today’s time media plays a more lethal role, as compared to weapons. The conventional media, controlled by the West, spreads disinformation by portraying bleaker outlook for the country under the US sanctions.  One such example is the details about Russia released by Institute of International Finance.

According to Institute of International Finance (IIF), Russia is likely to erase 15 years of economic gains by the end of 2023 after its invasion of Ukraine spurred a multitude of sanctions and prompted companies to pull out of the country.

The economy is expected to contract 15% in 2022, followed by a decline of 3% in 2023, leaving gross domestic product where it was about fifteen years ago. This was written by economists Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova in a preliminary assessment of the impact of the war, noting that further sanctions may change their view.

“Sharply lower domestic demand is likely to play a crucial role, while a collapse in imports should offset lower exports, leading to a marginally-positive contribution from net foreign demand,” the economists wrote.

“However, should further sanctions in the form of trade embargos be implemented, exports might fall more than we currently forecast.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 spurred a collapse of its currency (ruble) and threw global supply chains and commodities prices into chaos. This also sparked mass departure of companies from the country. French automaker Renault SA is among the latest firms to pull out, announcing that it will halt operations at its Moscow plant. It is also considering the future of a longstanding Russian venture called AvtoVaz.

Even after the immediate hit to Russia’s economy, the economy will suffer for years to come from a “brain drain” the exodus of educated, middle class Russians with the financial means to leave the country.

Sanctions from United States and European Union, which control export of technology, including microelectronics, will also hinder technological development in Russia for years, according to the IIF.

At the same time, “self-sanctioning” by foreign companies which no longer want to do business with Russia will lead to a weakening of important sectors of the Russian economy, the report said.

 “The negative effect on medium- and long-term economic prospects could be even more important,” the IIF economists wrote.

 

Ukraine war marks beginning of a new world order

Joe Biden, President of United States believes the Ukraine war will mark the start of a ‘new world order’. In the middle of the COVID global pandemic, Klaus Schwab and global elites likewise announced a ‘great reset’.

Accordingly, the nations of the world would have to surrender their sovereignty to an international body of experts. They would enlighten the governments on taxes, diversity, and green policies.

When former President Donald Trump got elected in 2016, marquee journalists announced partisan reporting would have to displace the old, supposedly disinterested approach to the news.

In normal times progressives worry that they do not have public support for their policies. Only in crises do they feel that the political left and media can merge to use apocalyptic times to ram through usually unpopular approaches to foreign and domestic problems.

We saw that last year, fleeing from Afghanistan, the embrace of critical race theory, trying to end the filibuster, pack the court, junk the Electoral College, and nationalize voting laws.

These ‘new orders’ and ‘resets’ always entail far bigger government and more unelected, powerful bureaucracies. Elites assume that their radical changes in energy use, media reporting, voting, sovereignty, and racial and ethnic quotas will never quite apply to themselves, the architects of such top-down changes.

They preach, common folk must quit fossil fuels, but not those who need to use corporate jets. Walls will not mar our borders but will protect the homes of Nancy Pelosi, Mark Zuckerberg, and Bill Gates.

Hunter Biden’s lost laptop will be declared, by fiat, not news. In contrast, the fake Alfa Bank ‘collusion’ narrative will be national headline news for weeks.

Middle class lifestyles will be curbed as they are instructed to strive for sustainability and transition to apartment living and mass transit. But the Obamas will still keep their three mansions, and Silicon Valley futurists will insist on exemptions for their yachts.

In truth, the world is about to see a radical reset—of the current reset. It will be a different sort of transformation than the elites are expecting and one that they should greatly fear.

The world and the United States are furious over hyperinflation that may soon exceed 10% per year. Ordinary people will be lucky if it ends only in recession or stagflation, rather than a global depression.

The mess was created by those who propagated modern monetary theory. That silly university idea claimed prosperity would follow vastly expanding the money supply, keeping interest rates at de facto zero levels, running huge annual deficits, piling up unsustainable national debt, and subsidizing workers to stay home.

Natural gas and oil costs are now soaring to unsustainable levels—and to the point where the middle class simply will not be able to travel, keep warm in winter, or cool in summer.

Both in Europe and the United States left-wing governments deliberately curbed drilling and non-Russian pipelines. They shut down nuclear power plants and subsidized costly, inefficient solar and wind projects.

They ended up not with utopia, but with fuel shortages, high prices, and energy dependency on the world’s most repressive regimes.

The woke revolution in the West was supposed to teach us that the white male-dominated Western world is toxic. Its origins, ascendance, and current leisure and affluence were supposedly due only to systemic exploitation, racism, and sexism.

Few asked how a supposedly noxious West of some 2,500 years duration became the number one destination of millions of global non-Western migrants and offered the greatest degree of global prosperity and freedom for its citizens.

So a reset reckoning is coming—in reaction to the ‘new orders’ championed by Biden and the Davos set.

In the November 2022 midterms, Americans are likely to see a historic “No!” to the orthodox left-wing agenda that has resulted in unsustainable inflation, unaffordable energy, war, and humiliation abroad, spiraling crime, racial hostility—as well as arrogant defiance from those who deliberately enacted these disastrous policies. What will replace it is a return to what until recently had worked.

Closed and secure borders with only legal and measured immigration will return. Americans will demand tough police enforcement and deterrent sentencing, and a return to integration and the primacy of individual character rather than separatist fixations on the ‘color of our skin’.

The public will continue to tune out of the partisan and mediocre ‘mainstream’ media. They will see greater increased production of oil and natural gas to transition us slowly to a wider variety of energy, strong national defense, and deterrent foreign policies.

The prophets of the new world order sowed the wind and they will soon reap the whirlwind of an angry public worn out by elite incompetence, arrogance, and ignorance.

Courtesy: The Epoch Times

 

Friday, 25 March 2022

US oil and gas industry demands increasing local production over easing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela

Many decades ago I had read that United States wishes to keep global sources of energy under its control, directly or indirectly. This became crystal clear after impositions of economic sanction on Iran and Venezuela and invasion on Iraq and Libya. The latest attempt is imposition of sanctions on global energy giant, Russia.

Till yesteryear global supply of energy was controlled by ‘Seven Sisters’. Since other players, particularly OPEC Plus still enjoy substantial leverage, the new name of the game is ‘Shale Oil’. To keep shale oil producers economically viable, oil price has to be kept around US$70/barrel in the global markets.

Under the strategy of cutting supplies from major producers, the first casualty was Iran, then came Iraq and Libya and now the target is Russia. To achieve the success, two pronged strategy is being followed, containing oil supply from OPEC Plus members and boosting indigenous production. To achieve the target the US administration is already in touch with exploration and production (E&P) companies which have already started soliciting ‘incentives’, the latest news is:

The oil and gas industry of United States is positioning domestic crude production as the lesser of environmental evils, as it attempts to dissuade the administration of US president Joe Biden from easing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

A US ban on Russian crude imports earlier this month reframed talks to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and rekindled diplomatic ties between Washington and Caracas, with market participants watching keenly for any developments that might offer incremental supply.

The US oil and gas stakeholders claim a move toward Iranian or Venezuelan barrels would signal a step back from the kind of environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards consumers, politicians and investors have called for in recent years.

"If you really care about ESG, compare the United States to other jurisdictions," Hunter Hunt, Chief Executive of Dallas-based oil and gas company Hunt Consolidated, told Argus earlier this month.

"We will have a higher commitment to the environment, a higher commitment to safety, and I think you will see a stronger understanding of all social concerns here in the US than you would see in Iran or Venezuela or other countries that potentially could fill the gap left by Russian oil."

Hunt's comments echo those heard elsewhere in the industry. AFPM President Chet Thompson on March 14, 2022 called against relying on countries with "less stringent environmental and safety standards" like Iran or Venezuela for energy.

ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods earlier this month said "production will shift to somebody else with potentially higher emissions" if climate hawks push US companies into decreasing production.

Seven Sisters

The Seven Sisters (oil companies) is a classification named by the Enrico Mattei who is an Italian politician for the seven giant oil companies that managed the oil industry worldwide until the 1970s. The company names of seven sisters are: Anglo-Persian Oil Company worked between 1908-1954 after that they became BP, Gulf Oil run within these years 1901-1985 after this year purchased by Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Exxon later joined with Mobil, Texaco (1901-2000) acquired by Chevron in 2001.

The traditional period starts with the Seven Sisters giant oil firms as the authoritative strength in world petroleum businesses for the decades after World War II. Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum, Gulf, Exxon, Mobil, Texaco, and Chevron, the cartel operated authorizations to oil in sovereign nations with plentiful petroleum sources.

This adjustment proffered the Sister’s attribute powers over oil in Venezuela and newly named OPECs countries, and end of 1950, the Sister’s cartel maintained a 98.3% exchange portion of world petroleum production. BP, Chevron, Mobil, and Shell are remaining today, and we can say that they are the big four for the oil industry of today’s world. As for why this description is accepted.

After the 1940s, these seven big companies built a cartel that provided more than 83% of world oil production and became an oligopoly for the oil industry. They are in steadfast competition with each other, but when the rise of another company comes together, they blend and threaten that company. These companies could be termed a stop at least partially with the later OPEC countries.

According to the freshest statement of the Financial Times, cartels of this century; Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, as well as four major oil giants, as well as Total and ENI. However, especially in recent years, non-OECD countries have included China National Petroleum Co. (CNPC), Gazprom Russia, ConocoPhillips, Petrobras Brazil, Petronas Malaysia, and Saudi Aramco.

However, the share and support of the four major oil giants among these companies, which have achieved significant progress in recent years, is not known. Some energy experts claimed that new companies’ growth occurred with the help of seven sisters.

These seven sisters, who established the international oil industry for nearly a century, developed them through incorporations, takeovers, and incorporations and brought them to the present day, have a higher income than the gross national product of many other countries, and the tonnage of the tankers they possess is higher than the naval forces of many nations.



 

 

 

 

 

 

Tribute to Madeleine Albright

Madeleine Albright was the first woman to serve as US Secretary of State and a ‘Grande Dame’ of foreign policy for the Democratic Party. She wrote books, served on think tank boards and warned of the risk of fascism in the Donald Trump era. 

She died on March 23, 2022 at the age of 84; the cause of death was cancer.

Appointed by President Bill Clinton in 1996, halfway through his two-term presidency, Albright became the highest-ranking woman in the US government at the time. As the top US diplomat, she called for the use of force as the conflict in Kosovo descended into ethnic cleansing. That was consistent with the hard line she had pressed during the Bosnian War, when she was Clinton’s ambassador to the United Nations. She later described the Rwandan genocide of 1994 and the failure to achieve a Mideast peace accord as among her biggest regrets.

“Madeleine’s courage and toughness helped bring peace to the Balkans and paved the way for progress in some of the most unstable corners of the world,” President Barack Obama said upon awarding Albright the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, in 2012.

Responding to news of her death, State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters, “The impact that she has had on this building is felt every single day. She was a trailblazer as the first female Secretary of State and quite literally opened doors for a large element of our workforce.”

In a statement, Clinton called Albright “an extraordinary human being” and “a passionate force for freedom, democracy and human rights.”

Albright was famous for well-tailored suits adorned with pins or brooches, ranging from balloons to carnivorous animals and chosen to reflect a mood or an opinion. After learning that the Russians had bugged a conference room near her office at the State Department, for example, she wore a pin shaped like a huge bug.

Albright’s stature and style belied a commanding negotiating skill. When Yasser Arafat walked out of Paris talks in 2000, Albright told guards at the US ambassador’s residence to “Shut the gates!” As UN ambassador, she responded to Cuba’s 1996 downing of two unarmed Cessna aircraft: “This is cowardice.”

In an opinion column published February 23, 2022 in the New York Times, just before Russian forces invaded Ukraine, Albright took direct aim at Russian President Vladimir Putin. She disclosed that while flying back to Washington after her first meeting with Putin in 2000, she recorded her observations of him, “Putin is small and pale, so cold as to be almost reptilian.”

“Instead of paving Russia’s path to greatness,” she wrote in the column, “invading Ukraine would ensure Mr. Putin’s infamy by leaving his country diplomatically isolated, economically crippled and strategically vulnerable in the face of a stronger, more united Western alliance.”

In an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “The Close,” Leon Panetta, a White House Chief of Staff under Clinton, recalled Albright as “a Cold War warrior” who had been “raised to understand what communism was about and what the threat from Russia was all about.”

Thomas Pickering, who served under Albright as Under Secretary for political affairs, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio’s “Sound On”, “She had little love, I would say, for Russia, and that skepticism and indeed suspicion about Russia has proven to be more true than I think any of us had reason to believe when I worked for her.”

An emigrant who fled Czechoslovakia at the dawn of World War II only to discover her own Jewish heritage more than a half-century later, Albright witnessed firsthand the displacement of those deemed undesirable.

“In the end, no one who lived through the years of 1937 to 1948 was a stranger to profound sadness,” Albright wrote in “Prague Winter,” her personal account of the period. “Millions of innocents did not survive, and their deaths must never be forgotten.”

Albright was born Marie Jana Korbel on May 15, 1937, in Prague, one of three children of Josef Korbel, a diplomat, and the former Anna Spieglova. The family statement on her death gave her surname at birth as Korbelova. When the German army arrived in 1939, the family went into exile in London. 

At war’s end, they returned to Prague, relocating several months later to Belgrade where her father served as ambassador. At the age of 10, Albright was sent to boarding school in Switzerland.

When the Communist Party took control in Czechoslovakia in 1948, her father accepted a post on a UN commission on Kashmir. The Korbels stayed in New York. By then, Albright spoke four languages: Czech, Serbo-Croatian, English and French.

Gaining political asylum in 1949, they moved to Denver, where her father became a professor at the University of Denver. She met her future husband, Joseph Medill Patterson Albright, during a summer job at the Denver Post. They married in 1959, the same year she earned a bachelor’s degree in political science from Wellesley College in Massachusetts. They had three daughters -- Anne, Alice and Katharine -- before the marriage ended in divorce

A Catholic who became an Episcopalian in marriage, Albright learned of her Jewish ancestry ‑ along with the death of more than a dozen relatives, including three grandparents in the Holocaust ‑ in 1997 at age 59.

In her 2003 autobiography, “Madam Secretary,” she said of her own parents, “My guess is that they associated our heritage with suffering and wanted to protect us. They had come to America to start a new life.”

Albright obtained a Ph.D. in public law and government from Columbia University where she studied under Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s future National Security Adviser. She also earned a certificate in Russian studies.

In 1976, Albright became the chief legislative aide to Democratic US Senator Ed Muskie of Maine. Two years later, Brzezinski recruited his former student as the National Security Council’s congressional liaison.

When Republicans came to power, she taught at Georgetown University and advised Democrats on foreign policy, including presidential candidates Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. In 1989, she became president of the public policy think tank Center for National Policy.

With Clinton’s victory in 1992, she became US Permanent Representative to the UN. In 1995, when as many as 8,000 Bosnian Muslims were slaughtered in Srebrenica at the hands of Bosnian Serbs, Albright presented evidence of mass graves to the Security Council. 

With the lessons of Rwanda fresh in mind, she argued for the use of force. Following the shelling of a Sarajevo market in August, the largest North Atlantic Treaty Organization mission ever got under way, leading to the Dayton Accords that ended the war.

When Warren Christopher, Clinton’s first Secretary of State, announced his plan to return to the private sector, Albright was nominated as his successor. The US Senate unanimously confirmed her appointment.

Albright sought the use of force again in Kosovo, where in 1998 a civil war had ensued. Dubbed “Madeleine’s War,” NATO engaged in combat for the second time in its history, launching air strikes in March 1999 without the approval of the Security Council.

“Madeleine Albright is somebody who grew up learning the lessons of Munich, the danger of appeasing dictators, and she feels we need this more-assertive foreign policy not to back down in the face of people like Milosevic,” historian Walter Isaacson told CNN in a May 1999 interview. By June, Slobodan Milosevic’s troops began to withdraw from Kosovo.

Her efforts toward an Israel-Palestinian peace weren’t as successful. “People ask about my greatest disappointment as Secretary. This was it,” she said in her memoir.

Albright also supported the expansion of NATO and pressured Iraq to end its blockade of UN weapons inspectors. When Iraq didn’t comply, the US and Britain launched a series of air strikes known as Operation Desert Fox.

In October 2000, she became the highest-ranking US representative ever to make an official visit to North Korea, meeting with President Kim Jong Il. “I am sad to say that the Bush administration didn’t pick up the hand of cards that we left on the table there,” Albright said on MSNBC in 2013.

Following her government career, Albright returned to Georgetown as a professor. In 2005, she founded emerging markets investment adviser Albright Capital Management LLC within her Albright Group consultancy. She combined the firm with Stonebridge International in 2009 to form the Washington-based Albright Stonebridge Group, a global business strategy firm.

In addition to her autobiography and “Prague Winter,” Albright wrote best-selling books, including 2009’s “Read My Pins: Stories from a Diplomat’s Jewel Box.”

Even into her 80s, Albright’s defense of the ideals of democracy remained strong. The ascendency of authoritarian leaders was “a more serious threat now than at any time since the end of World War II,” she wrote in a 2018 essay in the Times that coincided with the publication of her book “Fascism: A Warning.” She added, “The possibility that fascism will be accorded a fresh chance to strut around the world stage is enhanced by the volatile presidency of Donald Trump.”

She led the nongovernmental organization National Democratic Institute for International Affairs and the Pew Global Attitudes Project. She also served on the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board and the boards of the Aspen Institute, Center for American Progress and the Council on Foreign Relations.

Albright never lost sight of the way her career broke through glass ceilings and made a point of promoting the careers of women throughout her professional life. In fact, she made famous a mantra: “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other.”

 

Tuesday, 22 March 2022

Key takeaways from Imran Khan’s Address to OIC Foreign Ministers

According to Reuters, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on Tuesday suggested that close ally China and Islamic countries mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and try to bring about a ceasefire.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) is holding the 48th Session of the Council of Foreign Ministers, which more than 600 delegates are attending, including Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as a special guest, in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.

"May I suggest that OIC during its discussion with foreign ministers, we should think about how we can mediate, how we can bring about the ceasefire," Khan told the gathering.

"I want to discuss how, maybe OIC along with China, we can all step in and try to stop this conflict which is going to have, if it keeps going the way it is, it would have great consequences for the rest of the world."

Khan's comments came hours after China and Pakistan echoed concerns about "spill-over effects of unilateral sanctions" on Russia, according to a statement by the Chinese foreign ministry.

Khan was in Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin the day Russian forces entered Ukraine. Pakistan has expressed concern about the repercussions of the invasion but also stopped short of condemning it.

Pakistan abstained from the UN General Assembly vote that condemned Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

According to Pakistan’s leading English Newspaper, Prime Minister Imran Khan delivered a keynote address at the inaugural session of the 48th Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) of Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) at the Parliament House in Islamabad on Tuesday.

While talking about the OIC's role, he said, "We have failed both the Palestinians and the people of Kashmir. I am sad to say that we have been able to make no impact at all."

The premier said Western countries did "not take the OIC seriously" because "we are a divided house and those powers know it.

"We (Muslims) are 1.5 billion people and yet our voice to stop this blatant injustice is insignificant."

Khan said international law was on the side of the people of Palestine and Kashmir, adding that the United Nations Security Council's resolutions backed the right of the Kashmiris to self-determination through a plebiscite. However, the international community never ensured that right was given, he said.

Referring to India's stripping of occupied Kashmir's special status in August 2019, he said nothing happened because they (India) felt no pressure. "They feel we can just pass a resolution and then go back to our usual business."

He said India was changing the demography in occupied Kashmir by bringing in settlers from outside but "no one has pushed about it because they think we are ineffective."

Afghanistan and Ukraine

The premier also spoke about the global situation, expressing his apprehension that the world is "headed in the wrong way".

A new Cold War had almost started and the world could be divided into blocs, he said, stressing that unless 1.5 billion Muslims take a united stand, "we will be nowhere."

No other people had suffered as much as the people of Afghanistan, he said, adding that for the first time in 40 years, there was "no conflict" in the war-torn country. "The only danger now is through the sanctions [imposed on Afghanistan] and non-recognition", which could cause a humanitarian crisis, he cautioned.

Talking about the ongoing war in Ukraine, Khan suggested that the OIC foreign ministers should discuss how the body could "mediate; try to bring about a ceasefire and an end to the conflict".

If the war continued, it would have "great consequences for the world", he cautioned. "All countries that are non-partisan are in a special position to be able to influence this conflict."

He again repeated his suggestion that the foreign ministers discuss the issue, adding that he would also talk about it with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi about how the OIC, along with China, "can influence the events in Ukraine and stop this and have some ceasefire and resolve this conflict".

Meeting agenda

During the two-day conference, more than 100 resolutions will be overviewed. The agenda of the meeting covers a review of the developments affecting the Muslim world since the last CFM held in Niamey in 2020 and efforts undertaken by the secretariat for the implementation of resolutions adopted in previous sessions, especially on Palestine and Al Quds.

The participants would also deliberate on the situation in Afghanistan and India-held Jammu and Kashmir.

Issues pertaining to Africa and Muslims in Europe and developments in Yemen, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, and Syria, will also be taken up at the meeting.

The agenda, moreover, includes Islamophobia and issues related to international terrorism and cooperation in economic, cultural, social, humanitarian, and scientific domains.

On March 23, foreign ministers will visit the venue of the Pakistan Day parade. Later in the day, FM Qureshi along with OIC Secretary General Hissein Brahim Taha will hold a joint press stakeout following the conclusion of the session.

Heads begin to roll in Russia, claims western media

According to European media reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the house arrest of two senior Federal Security Service (FSB) officers. Colonel-General Sergei Beseda, Chief of the FSB’s “Fifth Service,” reportedly was detained along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyuk, charged with providing flawed intelligence about Ukraine and their improper use of operational funds.

Separately, Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s National Security Council Chief, claimed that several Russian generals have been fired. The implications portend more suffering yet to come, but likewise opportunities to increase pressure on the Russian leader from within.

Perhaps emulating Joseph Stalin, this could be the onset of a purge and Putin’s desperate ploy to provide his domestic audience with a fall guy for self-inflicted wounds. His call to rid Russia of ‘scum and traitors’ as ‘a necessary self-purification of society’ might be Putin’s theatrical unveiling of not merely a further crackdown against the Russian people, but also his version of a ‘cultural revolution’ to bring further to heel those around him on whom he has counted to take and maintain power. If I were one of the oligarchs or siloviki, those from Russia’s intelligence services who profiteered on Putin’s kleptocracy, I’d be more than just a little worried.

Putin’s rhetoric is victimization, villains and heroes. He casts himself as the people’s champion. Putin chose the FSB, a machine organized and conditioned to execute his autocratic vision and tell him what he wants to hear — whether or not it conforms to reality.

Putin has relied on the FSB as his principal source of power and protection, not merely at home, but also across the former Soviet states over which he is determined to restore Russia’s dominion. His reorganization of the FSB from the KGB’s ashes should have told us precisely the direction he planned to take.

Putin’s outlook was made clear to me during my first meeting as the CIA’s chief of station in a former Soviet state with the local FSB chief, the “Rezident,” a general known for crushing the anti-Russian rebellion in Chechnya. He looked the part of a film noir Cold War villain, comically uncomfortable in the posh local restaurant. FSB protocol required that he bring another officer; Moscow prohibited its officers from meeting alone with the CIA.

Our contact was an education for me, a Russian-speaking CIA operations officer who had worked the target beyond Russia’s borders. The FSB chief wanted to let me know whose turf this was and how the game was played in his house. While we toasted collaboration to fight the evils of terrorism, he depicted the local officials as “members of his team” and the territory as an extension of “greater Russia.”

Although the CIA’s natural official counterpart is Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR, it was the Kremlin’s internal security agency, the FSB that ran the show across the former Soviet states. Putin, while FSB director in the 1990s, structured it as such, providing what had been the KGB’s former counterintelligence directorate with a disproportionately larger share of its parent organization’s power and influence. The KGB’s Foreign Intelligence directorate would become the less muscular SVR.

The Fifth Service, or Operational Information Department, was established as a new FSB branch to collect intelligence on the former Soviet states and conduct “active measures” to assure they continued to gravitate around Moscow’s orbit. That meant everything from propping up pro-Kremlin regimes to neutralizing threats from those aiming to move their countries closer to the West.

From 1999 to 2009, the Fifth Service grew and took charge of Russia’s brutal war in Chechnya, where the FSB, not the army, called the shots. It was the Moscow apartment building bombings in September 1999, which killed 300 and wounded over 1,000 that then-Prime Minister Putin used to justify that war, claiming the attacks were undertaken by Chechen militants. The bombings, as it turned out, allegedly were the FSB’s handiwork under Putin’s direction.

Putin does not trust the army, a sentiment likely validated by its poor performance and his natural KGB-era disposition. The KGB spied on Russia’s armed forces, to purge them of reactionary elements, often the country’s best and most faithful officers. Putin’s FSB is modeled after Stalin’s chekists, the secret police, his most trusted means to reconstitute a Soviet-era structure that keeps the public’s civil liberties and those possessing any power within his tent well in check.

My FSB counterpart preached the need to target families who offered leverage against hooligans, as he referred to Russia’s enemies. Better to preempt them early, he said, ridiculing America’s surgical approach. He argued that such enemies were cockroaches whose nests had to be destroyed. The pests turned out to be his own people. The general was ethnically Chechen.

Whatever value Putin might believe exists in casting aside his most important supporters has no upside for him — but possibly does for us. Colonel-General Beseda, the reportedly detained Fifth Service chief, had been in his job for years and was the driver behind Putin’s strategy. He literally knows where the bodies are buried. That Beseda’s reporting and counsel likely was spun to align with Putin’s own warped view of the world and misguided expectations for the invasion of Ukraine is a product of the Russian leader’s own making. In such a system, who’s going to tell Putin anything different? But having done Putin’s dirty work and placated his demand for absolute obedience, only to be thrown to the wolves, Beseda’s removal will reverberate throughout the Kremlin, even if Putin leaves in place his FSB boss, Gen. Alexander Bortnikov.

Unlike Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and SVR Director Sergey Narayshkin, Bortnikov might enjoy greater protection as a career officer, rather than a professional politician. Bortnikov’s elimination could pose too great a risk, given his network and command over the safety net on whose survival Putin depends.

Putin’s desperation does not bode well for whatever guard rails we would hope to constrain him. A purge undermines Putin’s image of infallibility and strength and could precipitate threats from those who see his desperation as an exploitable vulnerability, or an incentive to act before they’re next. As he chances antagonizing the hammer and shield with which he maintains power — the FSB — and mistrusting the army’s ability to win his war abroad, the dynamic could draw him inward, forcing reconsideration of his Ukrainian campaign.

Facilitating this dynamic with continued external pressure, and perhaps internal meddling, is not without risk, but it may be the best means with which to force Putin to pay a dear price for his actions. A purge of scapegoats among those he has enriched, coming as Russia’s economy collapses, could boomerang and create a byzantine backdrop of palace-plotting that compels him to compromise or causes his fall. But insular and paranoid as Putin’s decisions seem to suggest he has become, a darker alternative is his choosing to go down with the ship — and possibly taking us with him.

 

Monday, 21 March 2022

Best Pastime of United States: Selling Arms to Saudi Arabia

Selling arms appears to be the sole motive of the United States. It creates a crisis, fans it and sells arms. The Saudi-Yemen conflict has been lingering on only because the US keeps on supplying arms to Saudi Arabia, rather than resolving the crisis. 

The Biden administration has transferred a significant number of Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia in the past several weeks after the country urgently requested a resupply, The Wall Street Journal reported. 

The transfers, which were not formally announced, are to make sure Saudi Arabia can defend itself against drone and missile attacks from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, a senior US official said. 

While they would not specifically confirm a significant number of transfers, a State Department spokesman told The Hill that over the past several months the administration has been working with Saudi Arabia and its neighbors to help them strengthen their air defenses in response to a rising number of aerial attacks from Yemen. 

One official told the Journal the Patriot interceptors were moved from US stockpiles elsewhere in the Middle East. 

Washington’s relationship with Riyadh has been rocky for more than a year after President Biden took office, an issue that stems from the country’s human rights record and its involvement in Yemen’s civil war, which has dragged on since 2014 and killed thousands of civilians.  

Biden will not communicate directly with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and last year released an intelligence report implicating him in the murder of US-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. 

And the United States in September withdrew some of its own Patriot defense systems from Saudi Arabia amid ongoing Houthi attacks.

But Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producers, is also a valuable strategic ally in the region, especially since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. 

The US has supplied more than US$100 billion worth of weapons to the kingdom in the past decade and has used the country to keep a US force presence in the region amid ongoing tensions with Iran and counterterrorism missions against al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups.  

On Sunday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan condemned the Houthis for a series of major drone and missile strikes on water treatment facilities and Saudi-run Aramco oil infrastructure that started a fire at one site and temporarily reduced oil production at another. 

“We will continue to fully support our partners in the defense of their territory from Houthi attacks. We call on the international community to do the same,” Sullivan said in a statement. 

A person familiar with the transfers told The Hill that the recent movements of Patriots to the Saudis was not a new development and that the US has been working for months to bolster Saudi Arabia against cross-border attacks, which numbered at more than 400 last year, they said. 

Such attacks “affected Saudi infrastructure, schools, mosques, and workplaces, and endangered the civilian population, including 70,000 US citizens living in Saudi Arabia,” they said. 

“With US support, Saudi Arabia has been able to intercept 90 percent of the attacks, but we need to aim for 100 percent,” the person added.

US officials told the Journal that the decision to send the interceptors had taken so long because other US allies also have a high demand for the weapons and the need to go through the typical government vetting process, not due to a delay from the White House.  

The decision to green-light the arms transfer is also part of an administration effort to mend its relationship with Saudi Arabia and convince the kingdom to pump more oil to offset quickly rising crude oil prices, according to the officials.

Asked later on Monday about the Patriot deployments, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby would not confirm the transfers but said the US military is committed to helping Saudi Arabia defend itself against threats to its territory from Yemen.

"We're in constant discussions with the Saudis about this, about this threat environment, and always looking for ways to continue to help them defend themselves, but I've got nothing to say with respect to that press report," Kirby said.

 

 

 


Afghanistan to be next proxy war ground

The invasion of Ukraine has essentially consolidated US-Russia antagonism, while upending the post-Cold-War security order in Europe. It has also initiated the militaristic rationale of the Cold War without providing the two ideological alternatives of organizing politics, economies and societies that characterized that period.

It is critical to recognize that the Cold War’s proxy wars, or hot wars, will play out mercilessly and more viciously in conflict-prone regions of the Global South, while the North will use all means to extinguish these wars from its soil or try to turn them into frozen conflicts or prolonged asymmetric insurgencies.

In Asia, it is important that nations such as India, China, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and even Israel retain their balancing act and non-alignment posture and do not succumb to pressure from the West or Russia to choose sides.

The recent rapprochement of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan towards Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin while avoiding US President Joe Biden; and Israel’s efforts to reach out to all sides, including Moscow, Berlin and Washington, all indicate diplomatic efforts to find a solution to this conflict but, more importantly, to avoid being sucked into a war that is being imposed on them.

This cooperation and diplomatic effort demonstrated by West Asian nations is also desperately needed between Beijing, New Delhi, Tehran and Islamabad.

Analysts have already pointed to the US-Russia rivalry in the Middle East as Russia’s military-to-military links with authoritarian regimes of the region – including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Iran, and even Israel – have provided Moscow with legitimate leverage to threaten US security interests and project power into southern Europe.

While the invasion of Ukraine strengthened the Western alliance militarily and economically, prompted German rearmament and pushed neutral European states to consider joining NATO, it is critical that Asian powers take steps to prevent both Russian and Western incursions into their weaker and conflict-prone neighborhoods, for themselves and their neighbours.

While most media outlets and analysts remain focused on places with traditional military presence and face-offs, US-Russian and even US-Chinese proxy wars will resume in another critical geostrategic region i.e. Central Asia.

Afghanistan’s geostrategic importance and conflict-prone environment will once again serve as the starting point for a superpower proxy war, allowing the US to open new fronts against its arch rivals Russia and China.

A member of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies stands among the food rations to be distributed to drought-hit farmers, in Sang-e-Atash, Afghanistan, on December 13, 2021. Severe drought has worsened the already desperate situation in the country, forcing thousands to flee their homes and live in extreme poverty.

The number and nature of opportunistic Islamist terrorist organizations and spoiler groups in and around Afghanistan provide an ideal breeding ground for further destabilization of the entire region, including Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan.

This time, the West will aim to expand the threat of Islamic terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, actually destabilizing Russia’s underbelly, stretching its forces and resources while Moscow grapples with harsh sanctions.

At the same time, the threat emerging from Afghanistan and the mountainous regions of Central Asia will destabilize China’s restive Western border, adding to Beijing’s already-heightened domestic security concerns. Washington will literally hit two or more birds with one stone at the very low cost of financing and arming Islamist groups.

This is not to say that Washington had this intention all along. Under the Donald Trump and Joe Biden administrations, Washington has made it clear that Islamic terrorism was no longer the perceived threat to US national security it had once been, and this was replaced by Russia, but more importantly, China.

The US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan should also be viewed in the light of Washington’s shifting strategic priorities. The war in Ukraine changed all that.

Afghans protest Biden’s order to reallocate unfrozen Afghan funds

It is noteworthy that the Taliban, unlike its pro-Western predecessor, now prioritizes China and Russia.

It has disarmed and weakened, for the time being, the Uygur-linked East Turkestan Islamic Movement terrorist organization based in Afghanistan. It is pursuing the Afghan chapter of Islamic State, Islamic State of Khorasan Province, to reassure Russia and the Central Asian Republics that it poses no threat to them, among other reasons. It is using water politics to persuade Iran to recognize it.

Despite all these efforts, Taliban are still waiting for some tangible support from these countries to help it consolidate its position in Afghanistan.

It would not be surprising if the Taliban turned against these countries or simply turned a blind eye, allowing terrorist groups to use Afghan soil as a launch pad for activities against Russia or China and beyond in exchange for desperately needed US financial backing.

Though the emergence of organized armed resistance against the Taliban have already started in small pockets across Afghanistan – and are often legitimate uprisings against an oppressive regime – unfortunately and realistically, whatever emerges from the region now will have to serve the proxy interests of the US and Russia before serving Afghan nationalist or resistance aspirations.

The Afghan people, like Ukrainians, now have to choose between bad and worse. By going their own way and taking care of their weak neighbours, Asian powers of the Global South can help prevent the worse option and the spread of yet another hot Cold War in Asia.

 

Sunday, 20 March 2022

Britain fails in securing addition oil from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held talks about energy security with the de facto leaders of Gulf oil exporters Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but failed in securing additional crude oil.

Johnson's trip to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh was aimed at securing oil supplies and raising pressure on President Vladimir Putin over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which led to sweeping Western sanctions on Moscow and soaring world energy prices.

Johnson's office said that in his meeting with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, he stressed the need to work together to stabilize global energy markets.

After his talks in Riyadh with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Johnson was asked whether the kingdom would increase oil production.

"I think you'd need to talk to the Saudis about that. But I think there was an understanding of the need to ensure stability in global oil markets and gas markets," he said.

So far Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose close ties with Washington are under strain, have snubbed US pleas to ramp up oil production to tame the rise in crude prices that threatens global recession after the Russian offensive in Ukraine.

"The world must wean itself off Russian hydrocarbons and starve Putin's addiction to oil and gas," Johnson said before his meetings. "Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are key international partners in that effort."

The two Gulf states are among the few OPEC oil exporters with spare oil capacity to raise output and potentially offset supply losses from Russia. But they have tried to steer a neutral stance between Western allies and Moscow, their partner in an oil producers' grouping known as OPEC+.

The group has been raising output gradually each month by 400,000 barrels a day, resisting pressure to act more quickly.

The UAE remains committed to the OPEC+ deal, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters before the meeting.

It has deepened ties with Moscow and Beijing in the last few years and abstained last month in a US-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, which Russia has described as a "special military operation".

Johnson "set out his deep concerns about the chaos unleashed by Russia’s unprovoked invasion, and stressed the importance of working together to improve stability in the global energy market", his office said after his talks in Abu Dhabi.

Johnson and the crown prince also agreed on the need to bolster security, defence and intelligence cooperation to counter threats including from Houthi forces that have fought a lengthy conflict in Yemen against Saudi and UAE forces.

Johnson is only the second major Western leader to visit Saudi Arabia since journalist Jamal Khashoggi's 2018 killing by Saudi government agents in Istanbul.

The CIA concluded that the prince approved an operation to capture or kill Khashoggi. He has denied any involvement in the killing.

The Prime Minister's trip also came just four days after Saudi Arabia executed 81 men, the largest number in a single day for decades, for offences ranging from joining militant groups to holding deviant beliefs.

Asked about criticism of Saudi Arabia's human rights record, Johnson said: "I've raised all those issues many, many times over the past ... and I'll raise them all again.

"But we have long, long standing relationships with this part of the world and we need to recognize the very important relationship that we have ... and not just in hydrocarbons."

Saudi press agency SPA said Johnson and Prince Mohammed discussed the conflict in Ukraine and international issues, adding that Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a strategic partnership.

 

Destabilizing Pakistan

Due to my other engagements and also dislike of the attitude of Pakistani politicians, I was not paying much attention to ‘No Confidence Move against Imran Khan’. However, I was completely dismayed and disturbed after looking at this picture placed at LinkedIn. 

One does not need to read or listen to any other narrative. It is evident that the efforts are aimed at derailing the upcoming OIC Summit being held in Pakistan.

I was lucky to also receive a list with the names of politicians and the amounts paid to them, circulating at social media. If I add up the amounts, it is enormous. I have a gut feeling that the amounts of this magnitude just cannot be paid by any of the leading political parties of Pakistan.

The natural conclusion is that the amount has come from outside Pakistan. I leave it at the readers to try to identify those who are behind the disbursement of these amounts. For their convenience I have picked a pointers.

The amount has come from those who don’t wish Pakistan to prosper.Their biggest apprehension is if Imran Khan remains in power ‘Pakistan can become a regional super power’ and play a role in ‘demolishing the hegemony of some of the regional and global super powers’.

The history shows that most of the promoters of the OIC Conference held in Pakistan during the regime of Zulficar Ali Bhutto were assassinated; the first casualty was King Faisal of Saudi Arabia. Formation and strengthening of OIC was the brainchild of King Faisal and Bhutto was one of the ardent promoters of ‘Unity of Muslim Ummah’.

Having met complete defeat in Afghanistan, unable to sustain mounting pressure for the revival of Iran nuclear deal and fearful of the growing closeness of China and Russia, Unite d States opened yet another proxy war in Ukraine. Russia is not proving as easy a prey as Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, three leading producers of crude oil.

Analysts fear that a proxy war could be initiated between India and Pakistan to sabotage CPEC. The United States consider it the biggest threat to its hegemony in Middle East and North Africa as well as South Asia.

Saturday, 19 March 2022

Putin’s Most Difficult Demands

According to The Epoch Times, Russian President, Vladimir Putin has laid out several demands for Ukraine including two ‘most difficult issues’ during a phone call with Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan.

The demands can be divided into two parts; Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin told several media outlets. 

The first four articles appear to be possible common ground for both sides.

“Basically, there are six topics:

The first is Ukraine’s neutrality, that is, its withdrawal from NATO membership.

Second, disarmament and mutual security guarantees in the context of the Austrian model.

Third, is the process that the Russian side refers to as ‘de-Nazification.’

Fourth, removing obstacles to the widespread use of Russian in Ukraine,

Some progress has been made in the above four topics. However, it’s too early to say there is potentially a full agreement that could be reached because there are two other “most difficult issues.”

Putin put forward two territory-related demands.

Putin would require Ukraine to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and admit the independence of the Donbas, a disputed region in southeastern Ukraine.

Putin recognized the independence of Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, two separatist territories in the Donbas, days before he ordered a full invasion of Ukraine.

Putin reportedly told Erdogan he would hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky personally about the territory-related issues if the two sides reached common ground on the first four areas.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Ukrainian government and the Russian government for comments.

Zelensky has been asking Putin to talk with him directly after the war broke out. He proposed again on Saturday that the disputes between Russia and Ukraine be solved through meaningful talks.

“Negotiations on peace, on security for us, for Ukraine—meaningful, fair, and without delay—are the only chance for Russia to reduce the damage from its own mistakes,” he said in a statement.

He also warned that the war would cause huge losses to Russia if the two sides don’t reach a timely end to the war.

“Otherwise, Russia’s losses will be so huge that several generations will not be enough to rebound,” he said.

Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, after the efforts to deter war failed.

The United Nations said that, as of March 19, they had recorded 847 deaths and 1,399 injuries of civilians in Ukraine because of Russia’s military action against Ukraine, mostly caused by shelling and airstrikes.

However, the U.N. believes that the actual figures are considerably higher.

Over 3.3 million people have fled Ukraine since the war began, United Nations data show.

 

Iran and China discuss regional and international issues

Lately, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke on phone with the Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi about bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.

Iranian Foreign Minister said that if the United States is serious, a good and robust agreement on reviving the US-abandoned Iran deal may be reached through Vienna talks.

Amir Abdollahian briefed his Chinese counterpart on the latest developments in efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran deal.

“If the American side is realistic, we will finalize a good, strong, and lasting agreement with the support of all negotiating parties in Vienna,” Amir Abdollahian said.

He stated that Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible to settle the remaining unresolved concerns through consultation with relevant parties in order to strike a good deal.

Iran expressed gratitude to China for its constructive engagement in the talks and expressed optimism that China would continue to give assistance.

“Iran is ready to resume the negotiations as soon as possible to resolve the final outstanding issues through consultation with other parties and strive for a good agreement,” Abdollahian told Wang, thanking Beijing “for its constructive role in the negotiations.”

He also mentioned his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stating that the Russian side reaffirmed its support for the lifting of US sanctions against the Islamic Republic by participating constructively in the Vienna talks.

Iran insists it wants assurances that the US would not abandon the agreement again. It also wants that US sanctions to be lifted in a verifiable way.

For his part, Wang stated that China has long supported achieving an agreement on restoring the JCPOA and is open to and supportive of efforts to this end. 

“China is willing to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Iran to push the settlement of the Iran nuclear issue in a direction conducive to regional peace and stability,” the chief diplomat pointed out.

He went on to say that the Chinese side recognizes Iran's genuine concerns, supports Iran in protecting its legitimate rights and interests, and opposes unilateral sanctions that have no legal basis.

“China understands Iran’s legitimate concerns and supports Iran in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests and opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law.” Wang asserted.

In reference to the continued growth of bilateral relations, the Chinese foreign minister stated that Beijing places a high value on expanding exchanges with Tehran and has no reservations about extending such relationships.

“In the face of the rapidly evolving international and regional situation, China is ready to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Iran to push for the resolution of the Iran nuclear issue in a direction conducive to regional peace and stability,” Wang said.

Amir Abdollahian also emphasized the importance of Tehran-Beijing relations and the necessity to strengthen them, stating that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's government prioritizes the development of ties. 

China plans to host the summit of the Foreign Ministers of countries neighboring Afghanistan. It will be the third summit of its kind. Wang lauded Iran's Foreign Minister for accepting an invitation to participate in the meeting.

Amir Abdollahian met with his Russian counterpart Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister stated that “Russia remains onboard for the final agreement in Vienna.”

The Iranian Foreign Minister visited Russia at a time that mainstream Western media outlets are speculating that Russia is impeding the conclusion of the negotiations in Vienna.

“I am tired of speculations regarding the Russian position at the final stage of the #ViennaTalks,” Russia’s lead negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov said via Twitter early on Wednesday. “Misunderstandings, misinterpretations, and distortion of realities. The bottom line: conclusion of the agreement depends not on Russia, but on others, especially #US.”

There is a moratorium on the talks in Vienna to allow negotiators to return to their respective capitals for more contacts to address a few unresolved concerns.

All sides to the talks have openly said that they are nearing the end of the process. Washington stated on Monday that the parties involved are “close to the finish line.” Iran has urged the US to abandon its “excessive demands” in order to reach an agreement as soon as possible.

The United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and launched a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions and intimidation against Iran. The Vienna talks seek to push the US to completely respect the agreement by lifting all anti-Iran sanctions.

 

Friday, 18 March 2022

Biden threats Xi Jinping of serious consequences

US President, Joe Biden has warned Chinese President Xi Jinping that Beijing would face consequences if it provides material support to Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine, the White House said Friday. 

“President Biden detailed our efforts to prevent and then respond to the invasion, including by imposing costs on Russia,” said a White House readout of the call published hours after it concluded. “He described the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia as it conducts brutal attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilians.”

Reportedly, the two leaders spoke for nearly two hours on Friday morning on a secure video call, which a senior administration official described as direct, substantive and detailed and largely focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“We’re concerned that they’re considering directly assisting Russia with military equipment to use in Ukraine,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Thursday, the day the White House announced plans for the phone call.

The senior administration official told reporters that Biden did not make specific requests of Xi when questioned if Biden asked China to intervene to stop the Russian assault. 

“The president really wasn’t making specific requests of China,” the official said. “He was laying out his assessment of the situation, what he thinks makes sense and the implications of certain actions.”

Asked why that was the case later Friday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters, “Because China has to make a decision for themselves about where they want to stand.”

Psaki said, the administration was still concerned about the possibility of China aiding Russia militarily.

“That is something we will be watching and the world will be watching,” she said.

A Chinese readout of the call said that Xi told Biden that China does not want to see the situation in Ukraine to come to this. Xi also affirmed support for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, according to the readout, which also indicated he did not condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

“All sides need to jointly support Russia and Ukraine in having dialogue and negotiation that will produce results and lead to peace,” the readout posted by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

“The US and NATO should also have dialogue with Russia to address the crux of the Ukraine crisis and ease the security concerns of both Russia and Ukraine.”

Both readouts indicated the two leaders tasked their teams to follow up on the conversation in the days ahead. 

China, which has deepened relations with Russia in recent years, has tried to portray itself as a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict. The US officials have urged China to condemn Russia’s behavior while raising concerns about China’s ties to Russia.

Reports surfaced earlier this week that Russia was seeking military assistance from China as it continues its invasion.

During a lengthy meeting with China’s top diplomat earlier this week in Rome, Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Beijing would face consequences if it helped Russia with the invasion financially or militarily.

White House officials have also raised concerns about China amplifying Russian claims that the US is developing biological weapons in Ukraine, which the US has called disinformation meant to lay the foundation for a possible Russian chemical attack. 

The senior administration official told reporters Friday that Biden directly expressed concerns to Xi about China echoing Russian disinformation about bio-weapons labs in Ukraine during the call. 

Russia has escalated its attacks on Ukraine since it first launched its invasion three weeks ago, despite officials and experts saying the Russian advance has not moved as quickly or as effectively as the Kremlin had hoped.

Russia has launched missiles targeting hospitals and civilian areas, prompting Biden and Blinken to call Russian President Vladimir Putin a “war criminal.”

The US has provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in humanitarian and security assistance. Biden this week announced a total of US$1 trillion in aid that will be used to supply anti-aircraft defense systems, anti-tank weapons and other arms to Ukraine.

Separate from talks on Ukraine, Biden reiterated that the US has not changed its policy on Taiwan and “emphasized that the United States continues to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo,” according to the White House readout.

The senior administration official said Xi was the one who raised the issue of Taiwan.

Taiwan has been a source of some tension between the US and China, and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has prompted concerns among some international watchdogs that China may try to invade or lay claim to the island.

Biden has previously told Xi the US is committed to the “One China” policy, under which the US does not recognize Taiwan as a separate state from China, but had also mistakenly said the US had an obligation to send troops to Taiwan if it were attacked by China.

Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the US is committed to providing Taiwan with arms for its defense. The law does not commit the US to sending troops to Taiwan to defend it.