It is critical to recognize that the Cold War’s proxy wars, or hot wars, will play out mercilessly and more viciously in conflict-prone regions of the Global South, while the North will use all means to extinguish these wars from its soil or try to turn them into frozen conflicts or prolonged asymmetric insurgencies.
In Asia, it is important that nations such as India, China, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and even Israel retain their balancing act and non-alignment posture and do not succumb to pressure from the West or Russia to choose sides.
The recent rapprochement of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan towards Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin while avoiding US President Joe Biden; and Israel’s efforts to reach out to all sides, including Moscow, Berlin and Washington, all indicate diplomatic efforts to find a solution to this conflict but, more importantly, to avoid being sucked into a war that is being imposed on them.
This cooperation and diplomatic effort demonstrated by West Asian nations is also desperately needed between Beijing, New Delhi, Tehran and Islamabad.
Analysts have already pointed to the US-Russia rivalry in the Middle East as Russia’s military-to-military links with authoritarian regimes of the region – including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Iran, and even Israel – have provided Moscow with legitimate leverage to threaten US security interests and project power into southern Europe.
While the invasion of Ukraine strengthened the Western alliance militarily and economically, prompted German rearmament and pushed neutral European states to consider joining NATO, it is critical that Asian powers take steps to prevent both Russian and Western incursions into their weaker and conflict-prone neighborhoods, for themselves and their neighbours.
While most media outlets and analysts remain focused on places with traditional military presence and face-offs, US-Russian and even US-Chinese proxy wars will resume in another critical geostrategic region i.e. Central Asia.
Afghanistan’s geostrategic importance and conflict-prone environment will once again serve as the starting point for a superpower proxy war, allowing the US to open new fronts against its arch rivals Russia and China.
A member of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies stands among the food rations to be distributed to drought-hit farmers, in Sang-e-Atash, Afghanistan, on December 13, 2021. Severe drought has worsened the already desperate situation in the country, forcing thousands to flee their homes and live in extreme poverty.
The number and nature of opportunistic Islamist terrorist organizations and spoiler groups in and around Afghanistan provide an ideal breeding ground for further destabilization of the entire region, including Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan.
This time, the West will aim to expand the threat of Islamic terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, actually destabilizing Russia’s underbelly, stretching its forces and resources while Moscow grapples with harsh sanctions.
At the same time, the threat emerging from Afghanistan and the mountainous regions of Central Asia will destabilize China’s restive Western border, adding to Beijing’s already-heightened domestic security concerns. Washington will literally hit two or more birds with one stone at the very low cost of financing and arming Islamist groups.
This is not to say that Washington had this intention all along. Under the Donald Trump and Joe Biden administrations, Washington has made it clear that Islamic terrorism was no longer the perceived threat to US national security it had once been, and this was replaced by Russia, but more importantly, China.
The US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan should also be viewed in the light of Washington’s shifting strategic priorities. The war in Ukraine changed all that.
Afghans protest Biden’s order to reallocate unfrozen Afghan funds
It is noteworthy that the Taliban, unlike its pro-Western predecessor, now prioritizes China and Russia.
It has disarmed and weakened, for the time being, the Uygur-linked East Turkestan Islamic Movement terrorist organization based in Afghanistan. It is pursuing the Afghan chapter of Islamic State, Islamic State of Khorasan Province, to reassure Russia and the Central Asian Republics that it poses no threat to them, among other reasons. It is using water politics to persuade Iran to recognize it.
Despite all these efforts, Taliban are still waiting for some tangible support from these countries to help it consolidate its position in Afghanistan.
It would not be surprising if the Taliban turned against these countries or simply turned a blind eye, allowing terrorist groups to use Afghan soil as a launch pad for activities against Russia or China and beyond in exchange for desperately needed US financial backing.
Though the emergence of organized armed resistance against the Taliban have already started in small pockets across Afghanistan – and are often legitimate uprisings against an oppressive regime – unfortunately and realistically, whatever emerges from the region now will have to serve the proxy interests of the US and Russia before serving Afghan nationalist or resistance aspirations.
The Afghan people, like Ukrainians, now have to choose between bad and worse. By going their own way and taking care of their weak neighbours, Asian powers of the Global South can help prevent the worse option and the spread of yet another hot Cold War in Asia.
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