Why oil prices slip below US$100 per barrel?

Oil prices have slipped below US$100/barrel this week despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and a structurally tight market. To understand the factors moving oil markets, make sure you sign up this blog to get regular updates.

The return of Iranian oil to markets is back on the global agenda after Moscow received guarantees that it could continue trading with Iran after sanctions are lifted. This news sent crude prices below the US$100/barrel mark, the lowest level in three weeks.

The reappearance of COVID-19 in China only added to the downward pressure in oil markets as the country hit a two-year high of 3,500 cases on Monday, doubling day-on-day. Stringent curbs were reintroduced in many major cities, most notably Shanghai and Shenzhen being put under lockdown.

This raises fears that Chinese demand over the upcoming weeks might drop below the stagnating levels of first two months of 2022.

In spite of the IEA claiming that Europe could essentially halve its dependence on Russian gas imports within a year, March gas flows have so far averaged 30% higher than February. 

Leading oil majors Shell, BP, and Equinor announced they would not be trading Russian oil and products for the foreseeable future, but that is not the case with gas. 

European spot gas prices have in fact come down over the past week on higher Russian pipeline supplies, with May ‘22 TTF prices trending around US$40/mmBtu. 

Gazprom exports in January 01 to March 15 to non-CIS countries have totaled 30.7bcm, down 28%YoY, primarily on the back of Europe seeing mild weather throughout the winter season. 

European Union Endeavor

European Union member states have agreed on a fourth package of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The details of the sanctions were not disclosed. It is anticipated Russia's "most favored nation" trade status would be revoked. This could open the door to the bloc banning or imposing punitive tariffs on Russian goods and putting Russia on a par with North Korea and Iran.

Sanctions were set to include an import ban on Russian steel and iron, an export ban on luxury goods including cars worth more than US$55,000 and a ban on investments in oil companies and the energy sector. They would also add Chelsea football club owner Roman Abramovich and 14 others to the EU list of sanctioned Russian billionaires, diplomats said earlier in the day.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has also said the EU was working to suspend Russia's membership rights of leading multilateral institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The latest sanctions will be formally in place once they have been published in the EU's official journal, which will follow soon.

OPEC Stance

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Tuesday that oil demand in 2022 faces challenges from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rising inflation as crude prices soar, increasing the likelihood of reductions to its forecast for robust demand this year.

Oil prices shot above US$139 a barrel this month, hitting peaks not seen since 2008, as Western sanctions tightened on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine and disrupted oil sales from Russia, helping to fuel inflation that was already rising.

In a monthly report, OPEC stuck to its view that world oil demand would rise by 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and increased its forecast of global demand for its crude.

But OPEC, which just a month ago had raised the possibility of a more rapid demand increase in 2022, said the war in Ukraine and continued concerns about COVID-19 would have a negative short-term impact on global growth.

"Looking ahead, challenges to the global economy – especially regarding the slowdown of economic growth, rising inflation and the ongoing geopolitical turmoil will impact oil demand in various regions," OPEC said in its report.

"While the year started on relatively solid underlying footing, the latest events in Eastern Europe may derail the recovery," OPEC said in its commentary on the world economy.

World oil consumption is expected to surpass the 100 million bpd mark in the third quarter, in line with OPEC's forecast last month. OPEC nudged up its forecast of the year's total oil use by about 100,000 bpd to 100.90 million bpd.

On an annual basis, OPEC said the world last used more than 100 million bpd of oil in 2019.

Oil prices extended their earlier decline after the report was issued, trading further below US$99/barrel on the perception of easing supply risks.

The report also showed higher output from OPEC as the group and allied non-members, known as OPEC+, gradually unwind record output cuts put in place in 2020.

OPEC+ has aimed to raise output by 400,000 bpd a month, with about 254,000 bpd of that due from 10 participating OPEC members, but production has been increasing by less than this as some producers struggle to pump more.

Still, the report showed OPEC output in February bucked that trend and rose by 440,000 bpd to 28.47 million bpd, driven by higher supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia and a recovery from outages in Libya.

The growth forecast for overall non-OPEC supply in 2022 was left unchanged, as was that for production of US tight oil, another term for shale.

OPEC said it expects the world to need 29 million bpd from its members in 2022, up 100,000 bpd from last month and theoretically allowing further increases in output.