Ukraine and Belarus potential sources for a United States-Russia confrontation

Geopolitical Futures claims that one of its top priorities is to know what is coming and ensure its subscribers are informed on important issues before they hit the mainstream. 

Till lately, major news outlets were reporting that Russia was amassing troops at its border with Ukraine; an important buffer country, in an effort to reclaim former Soviet Union territory.

 Lately, Geopolitical Futures has shared an excerpt of that original forecast with the readers. The highlights are:

Ukraine and Belarus are the two places with the potential for a US-Russia confrontation. Ukraine is at risk of falling apart. Russian influence in Belarus will threaten Poland.

Ukraine is caught in the crossfire of the United States, the European Union and Russia. Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream are expected to be completed in 2019. These pipelines, which connect Russia’s supply of natural gas to the European Union and Turkey, circumvent traditional and lucrative natural gas transit routes through Ukraine, giving Moscow further leverage over the government in Kiev.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine is frozen but still volatile, and it is unclear whether Ukraine can govern what is left of its territory. Russia is better prepared for intervention there than the West is, but Moscow is betting that Ukraine’s internal dysfunctions will eventually bring much of the country, if not the government itself, back into its orbit.

At the same time, Ukraine is preparing for a presidential election, scheduled for March. Polls show no clear frontrunner, there’s a real chance the political conflict that follows will entangle outside powers, just as it did after the 2014 elections.

Belarus is also concerning. For years, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has juggled relations with the West and Russia, leaning further east or west as necessity dictates. Right now, he is engaging more with the West, much to the chagrin of Russia, which is concerned about increased US military presence in Poland and Romania. Lukashenko has intimated that if a permanent US military base is installed in Poland, Minsk and Moscow may have to respond together. He has insisted that Russian troops will not be stationed in Belarus.

In Belarus, as in Ukraine, Geopolitical Futures does not expect the situation to come apart at the seams – but the competitive forces on both sides are creating tremendous pressure, which, in the shorter term, makes precise developments unpredictable.

Growing port congestion in China and United States

The health of the global supply chains in the next few weeks may partly hinge on the vitality of the trucking sector in a key port near Shanghai. A suspension of trucking services in several parts of China’s Zhejiang province has slowed the transportation of manufactured goods and commodities through one of the world’s most important ports.

There are strict controls on lorries moving goods to or from the Beilun district in Ningbo after the discovery of several cases of Covid-19 in the area, shipping line Maersk said in a recent customer advisory.

This suspension, along with restrictions on truckers in some areas in and around Zhejiang, has halted operations at some yards and warehouses at Ningbo port.

Ports around the world have been struggling to ease congestion as the pandemic heads into a third year. Ningbo is one of the world’s top container gateways and a crucial part of supply chains that connect factories in East China to consumers of automobiles, machines, electronics and toys in the United States, Europe and elsewhere. 

A week’s delay of trade at Ningbo’s port could cost US$4 billion including exports of circuit boards and clothes, according to consultant Russell Group. Some polyester factories in Ningbo have stopped work because they can’t receive raw materials via truck or ship out goods, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie. Road deliveries of liquefied natural gas, an important fuel for industries unconnected to pipelines has also slowed.

The port was partly shut for weeks last August after a Covid-19 outbreak, causing a slowdown in exports, disruptions and congestion across supply lines.

United States

The Port of New York and New Jersey has largely handled the pandemic-driven jump in imported goods without significant shipping bottlenecks forming. But recently a queue of container vessels waiting to offload has started to form off the coast of Long Island. 

The culprit, the Omicron variant, is keeping hundreds of longshoremen out of work each day because of either illness or the need to quarantine after coming in close contact with an infected person. “We have seen a spike in the number of labour going out into quarantine,” Port of New York and New Jersey Authority Director Sam Ruda, told Bloomberg in an interview.

According to the port authority’s website average waiting time for containerships at the port had increased to 4.75 days in the last week of 2021 as compared 1.6 days as an average for the year. The number of longshoremen unavailable for work was reported to be running at about 350 per day. As of January 07, 2022 the port authority said 11 containerships were currently at anchor waiting to call its terminals. Two of the vessels had been waiting since January 01, 2022.

The port has a seen a significant growth in volumes over the pre-pandemic year of 2019 with in handling 8.12 million teu by the end of November 2021, as compared to 7.47 million teu for the whole of 2019. As compared to US west coast gateway ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the east coast port was largely unaffected by delays and congestion last year. In addition to Covid related worker quarantines last week the port also saw disruption to operations from heavy snow storms.

 

Bangladesh pays huge amount to the US lobby firms

According to a report, Bangladesh’s Awami League government has paid a total of over US$2.3 million to a US firm to lobby the United States government and elected representatives in the last eight years.

The reports show that every year since 2015, the Bangladesh government paid the lobbying firm BGR Government Affairs — previously known as Barbour Griffith & Rogers — about US$320,000. However, in 2021, the government hired two more lobbying firms on short term contracts for a total of US$75,000 — increasing the total lobbying spend to US$395,000.

Earlier, following the US government’s imposition of financial sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion and on those army and police officers who have led it in recent years, Awami League parliamentarians have called on the government to hire a lobbying firm in the United States — apparently unaware that the Bangladesh government already hired three such firms last year.

This lobbying information is known as US law requires organizations or individuals, which lobby the US government on behalf of foreign entities, to provide financial and other disclosures on a quarterly basis.

The exact amount of money the Bangladesh government has paid is not known, since under the law the lobbying firm is only required to approximate the amount that it has spent on lobbying on behalf of a foreign client to the nearest US$10,000.

BGR’s lobbying started on July 01, 2014 — six months after the national election that was boycotted by opposition parties. In that year the government spent only US$160,000.

During the eight year period, filed reports show that BGR Government Affairs lobbied the Senate, the House of Representatives, the US Trade Representative and the National Security Council on behalf of the Bangladesh government. BGR’s website says that it is a bipartisan firm that “specializes in providing strategic advice, advocacy, and communications strategies for a wide range of clients, including governments…”

Little is known on exactly the issues on which the firm has lobbied, with the firm only stating that it concerned “Bilateral US-Bangladesh relations.” However, disclosures show that part of their role was to respond to articles critical of the government as well as to distribute press releases and messages promoting positive news about Bangladesh.

The reports show that three particular staff members of the lobbying firm have lobbied on behalf of the Bangladesh government: Walker Roberts and Maya Seiden, both co-head of the firm’s International Practice division, and Mark Tavlarides, a member of the team.

The reports say that, on behalf of the Bangladesh government, Roberts has met the Deputy Chief of Staff of the House International Relations Committee and the Special Assistant to the President.

Seiden is said to have lobbied the Special Assistant to the Cabinet Secretary at the White House; the Advisor to the Chief of Staff at the Energy Department; the Special Assistant to the Secretary of Energy; the Senior Advisor at the office of the Deputy Secretary of State; and, the Chief of Staff of the Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources.

The most recent disclosure by the lobbying firm was on October 20, 2021. However, the disclosed documents show that the business relationship between the Bangladesh government and BGR will continue until at least March 2022. 

A new contract was signed on August 09, 2021 by Shahidul Islam, the Bangladeshi Ambassador to the United States, committing the government to continue paying the lobby firm £25,000 a month. “BGR will provide strategic public relations and government affairs counsel for the Government of Bangladesh,” the contract reads.

Netra news reported that in 2021 Bangladesh Government hired two other lobbying firms on short term contracts.

One was the Friedlander Consulting Group who was hired between September 05 2021 and October 05 2021 to “arrange meetings and exchanges between the top leaders of United States and Bangladesh”. The company was paid US$40,000.

Another was Conewago Consulting LLC who was hired for one month from July 26, 2021 by the Bangladesh government. The submitted documents state that the “foreign principal” was the government of Bangladesh but that it was agreed through the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI). The contract, involving a payment of $35,000, was signed by Salman Rahman, Chairman of BEI, who is also a member of parliament and the Prime Minister’s private sector adviser.

Salman Rahman told Netra News that “BEI requested Conewago Consulting to promote enhancement of trade and investment between the United States and Bangladesh to members of Congress.”

Revival of Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul goods train

Resuming operations after 10 years, the first Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul (ITI) train carrying goods from Pakistan to Turkey via Iran arrived in into Ankara on Wednesday, January 05, 2022.

The ITI cargo train started its journey from Islamabad on December 21, 2021, and arrived in Ankara in around 13 days. Turkey’s Transport and Infrastructure Minister Adil Karaismailoğlu, Pakistani parliamentarian Makhdoom Zain Hussain Qureshi and Iranian Ambassador to Turkey Mohammad Farazmand attended a ceremony held to mark the arrival of the train.

Departing from the Margalla station in Islamabad, the train embarked on its 5,981-kilometer (3,666-mile) route, arriving in 12 days and 21 hours. The cargo train aims at boosting trade between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. The train comprised of eight loaded wagons, 20 feet (6 meters) in length, each with a capacity of 22 tons.

Karaismailoğlu in his speech said the new railway will offer another option to industrialists and business people on the Pakistan-Iran-Turkey route.

“It will save time and cost as compared to sea transportation between Pakistan and Turkey, which takes 35 days, and will lead to the development of trade between the two countries,” he said.  

“Thus, with the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul train, a new railway corridor will be provided to our exporters in the south of Asia – which has the highest population density globally – reaching Pakistan, neighboring India, China, Afghanistan and Iran. In this way, our country will be one step closer to its goals of becoming a bridge and logistics base between Asia and Europe,” Karaismailoğlu added.

Speaking at the ceremony, Qureshi highlighted that the ITI train would play an important role in enhancing regional connectivity and promoting economic and commercial activities in the ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) region. Iran, Pakistan and Turkey established the Regional Cooperation for Development organization in 1964, renaming it the ECO in 1985.

Qureshi added that the train would offer Pakistan an opportunity to further increase its exports and strengthen its connectivity with international markets, including in Europe.

“The current government in Pakistan believes in regional connectivity and we feel that to play a role at the national stage we need to be economically reliable. In order to do that, we need to not only have peace in our region but also increase the trade within our neighborhood and this ITI project will become a friendship project.

“We get access to the European markets and Turkey gets access to the central Asian states so it is a mutually beneficial arrangement and I hope it will be sustainable and we can grow from it further,” Qureshi told Anadolu Agency (AA) in an interview.

Ambassador Farazmand in his speech explained that the ITI railway project was first launched in 2009 under the ECO but remained suspended due to technical issues, restarting a decade later.

He emphasized that the three countries also plan to launch a passenger train along the same route in the near future.

The first train from Islamabad to Istanbul was inaugurated on August 14, 2009. Since then, eight trains have been dispatched from Pakistan to Turkey and Turkey dispatched six trains to Pakistan, but the train service was discontinued due to floods in the South Asian nation in 2009.

Chinese sale of fighter jet to Pakistan attracts other markets with ambitious plans but thin wallets

In December 2021, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) announced that it would soon acquire 25 Chinese-made J-10C combat aircraft. This purchase was a long time coming. Speculation that the PAF would acquire the J-10 goes back at least a decade.

Earlier plans to buy up several dozen J-10s were scuttled by a lack of funding, but India’s decision to purchase 36 highly advanced, French-made Rafale fighter jets apparently pushed Pakistan to move forward with their own buy of modern fighters.

Beijing has not had much luck lately exporting its fighter jets. It has tried to flog some of its less capable combat aircraft on the global market but with little success.

During the 1990s and 2000s, China offered export versions of two domestically-built fighter jets, the JH-7 (designated the FBC-1 Flying Leopard) and the F-8IIM (a heavily upgraded MiG-21, a plane that first flew in the 1950s). Neither of these planes secured an overseas sale.

Until now, China’s best result has been a handful of sales of its JF-17 to Burma (Myanmar) and Nigeria. The JF-17 is a rather basic lightweight fighter jet built explicitly for export. Pakistan has been its biggest buyer, with intentions of acquiring up to 200 planes. At the same time, these JF-17s will be manufactured in Pakistan and equipped with Western radar and Russian engines. There is very little Chinese about this aircraft.

Not surprisingly, the Chinese have pinned a lot of hope on the J-10 when it comes to overseas sales. The J-10 was China’s first “fourth-generation-plus” combat aircraft. It is an agile, single-engine fighter jet roughly in the same class as the US F-16C. It features fly-by-wire flight controls and a “glass cockpit,” meaning that it utilizes several multi-function flat-panel displays, as opposed to traditional analog instruments.

The J-10 has had its share of teething problems. Although its development was initiated in the mid-1980s, it didn’t fly until 1998, and it was nearly 20 years before it entered operational service with China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Even now, it is equipped with a Russian turbofan engine—underscoring China’s ongoing difficulties with developing a usable jet engine.

The latest variant, the J-10C—the version being exported to Pakistan—is considered to be a relatively advanced fighter. The J-10C features highly advanced active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and is capable of firing long-range missiles, meaning that it could engage enemy aircraft as far away as 124 miles.

One report claims that the J-10C is comparable to the most advanced versions of the F-16 (the so-called “Block 60/70” version).

China, despite being consistently among the top 10 arms exporting nations, is still essentially a niche supplier of weapons systems. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Chinese arms exports in 2020 consisted mainly of tactical missile systems (such as anti-tank weapons or anti-ship cruise missiles) and armed drones. After that come artillery systems, mortars, and lightly armored vehicles.

Sales of big-ticket items, such as warships, submarines, main battle tanks, and fighter jets, were few and far between—the major exceptions being the sale of Yuan-class submarines to Pakistan and Thailand, and offshore patrol vessels to Malaysia.

In fact, in 2020 China slipped to number eight on SIPRI’s list of leading arms exporters, behind France, German, and even Spain. Its arms sales for the period 2016–2020 were less than one-sixth those of the United States, the world’s leading arms exporter.

Armed drones, in fact, are China’s main exception to the rule of exporting rather prosaic weapons systems. As noted in an earlier article, Beijing has had great success selling armed drones.

According to SIPRI, China has exported armed drones to at least 16 countries on three continents, including Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These deals have earned Beijing more than US$700 million in export sales.

China has quickly become the developing world’s go-to source for armed drones, and Chinese drones are being used regularly in combat. While perhaps not as advanced as their competitors, Chinese drones are filling a critical—and lucrative—market niche.

Countries may not be lining up to buy most Chinese weapons, but armed drones are a segment where Beijing has several advantages over its competitors: a “good-enough” product—at a relatively low price—to just about anyone who has the cash, and with few or no questions asked.

Will Beijing be able to duplicate its success with exporting the J-10 that is has had with armed drones? It is probably too soon to say. Certainly, China faces a lot of competition in the global fighter business and, therefore, prospects for overseas sales of the J-10 remain dim.

Nevertheless, a successful sale of the J-10 to Pakistan raises the prospects that China could flood the global arms market with a relatively cheap and yet quite capable fighter jet. In particular, the J-10 could appeal to African, Asian, and Latin American air forces with ambitious plans and thin wallets.

Can United States shut down Russian gas pipeline?

Democrats are headed for a showdown with Senator Ted Cruz over his bid to force the Biden administration’s hand over a Russian gas pipeline. 

As part of a deal reached by Cruz and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, the Senate will vote next week on legislation from the conservative firebrand to put sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will carry gas from Moscow to Germany. 

Cruz needs help from 10 Democrats to get the bill through the Senate, and said he thinks his prospects for hitting that threshold are good. But Democrats are raising red flags over the bill, even though they’ve previously supported similar sanctions. 

”I’ve been talking to a number of my colleagues, and they have raised some serious questions about the Cruz amendment. … It’s a little much,” said Senator Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, asked if 10 Democrats would support the bill. 

Cruz’s legislation requires the administration to impose sanctions related to the pipeline within 15 days of the bill becoming law, but a big sticking point for Democrats, raised by senators are restrictions on President Biden’s ability to waive the sanctions, including the ability for Congress to vote to reinstate the penalties if they are waived. 

“I’ve been opposed to Nord Stream 2. I am still opposed to Nord Stream 2. There are some things though in the Cruz amendments are unprecedented. That gives me a pause,” said Sen. Ben Cardin, a senior Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee. 

Senator Tim Kaine noted that the Foreign Relations Committee, which he serves on with Cruz, had been pretty uniformly against Nord Stream 2 and in support of sanctions but the question is what are the conditions, does the executive get the ability to waive sanctions?

The vote could be politically awkward for Democrats, forcing them to pick between supporting a president they align with politically or cracking down on a pipeline they oppose even if they disagree with Cruz’s tactics. Cruz has also opened the door to releasing part of his blockade on Biden’s nominees if his bill passes the Senate. 

The Biden administration previously waived sanctions on the pipeline’s project company Nord Stream 2 AG, a subsidiary of the Russian-owned company Gazprom. Voting for Cruz’s amendment would effectively be supporting nixing Biden’s decision. 

Democrats have faced pressure from the Biden administration and European allies to reject slapping financial penalties on the pipeline. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken previously lobbied Democrats to quash Cruz’s proposal last year when he offered it as an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, a sweeping defense policy bill. 

Blinken, during a speech this week, argued that the pipeline could be used as a check on Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine, where Moscow has amassed troops along the border.

“This pipeline does not have gas flowing through it at present and if Russia renews its aggression toward Ukraine, it would certainly be difficult to see gas flowing through it in the future,” Blinken said. 

Germany is unlikely to certify the pipeline for operation in the first half of the year, according to the head of the federal authority for gas and infrastructure, Reuters reported, citing regulation requirements not yet met.  

Ned Price, a spokesman for the State Department, added that the administration is working with members of Congress and European allies “on a package of sanctions … that maximizes the potential costs to Russia if Moscow does continue with aggression against Ukraine.” 

Underlining the complicated diplomatic dance the White House is undertaking, the vote will coincide with diplomatic summits next week with Russia and other partners to address and tamp down the tension on Ukraine’s border. Russia has amassed nearly 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border, prompting fears of an invasion.

Kaine, who said he is still reviewing Cruz’s legislation, acknowledged that the Biden administration was worried about transatlantic tensions at a precarious moment, but noted that both a new German government and heightened Russian aggression could “change the dynamic a little bit.” 

“I want to hear what the administration position is, but President Obama was a friend and I voted for things he didn’t like. We do our job, and then the president gets to do his job. … If he really doesn’t like what we do he can veto it,” he said. 

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has sparked a wide, bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill over concerns that it only bolsters Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hand over Europe.

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, for example, recently co-authored an op-ed with Senator Rob Portman urging the Biden administration to “seriously reconsider the imposition of [Nord Stream 2] sanctions.”

The House also previously voted to approve Nord Stream 2 sanctions as part of its defense policy bill. But the provisions were dropped from the final House-Senate agreement. 

If Democrats block his bill, Cruz is already signaling that he’ll weaponize a “no” vote as Democrats being soft on Russia. 

 “Virtually every Democrat has voted for sanctions on Nord Stream 2 multiple times. If this were a vote on the merits it would be unanimous or nearly unanimous. There are multiple Democrats who have told me they are going to vote for it, or they are strongly considering voting for it,” Cruz said. 

Cruz added that supporting his bill “should be an easy vote,” before offering a likely preview of how he’ll characterize a defeat of the legislation.

“Each Democrat is going to have to make a choice,” he said, “whether their partisan loyalty to the White House is greater than their willingness to stand up to Russia and stop Putin’s aggression.”

NATO rejects Russian demands to stop expansion

NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg on Friday said the military alliance will not stop its expansion across Europe, denying demands from Russia amid the ongoing security saga with Ukraine.  

“We will not compromise on core principles, including the right for every nation to decide its own path, including what kind of security arrangements it wants to be a part of,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, according to The Associated Press.   

Russian President Vladimir Putin last month laid out demands for the US and NATO as part of efforts to ease tensions over Ukraine, where Moscow has amassed tens of thousands of troops outside its border amid fears of an invasion.  

Included in the draft document are asks that the alliance stop all membership plans, including with Ukraine, and to roll back its military deployments near Russia’s borders. The Kremlin also wants guarantees from Washington that the US won't establish any military bases in former Soviet states that are not part of NATO, nor develop bilateral military cooperation with them.  

In exchange, Russia would limit military exercises — a promise the country made through previous international commitments — and stop low-level hostilities, including aircraft buzzing. 

With Stoltenberg’s recent comments, however, NATO and the US seem unlikely to take Russia up on its offers when the sides gather Wednesday in Brussels for the first NATO-Russia Council meeting since July 2019.  

NATO ambassadors are expected to discuss Putin’s security proposals with Russia’s envoy in person at the meeting. 

Stoltenberg said that NATO is willing to discuss arms control but will not allow Putin to restrict how the alliance protects member countries. 

He also said NATO is still worried over Russia’s military buildup, which along with its new demands “sends a message that there is a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe.”  

Russia has a track record of violence in recent years, including annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and backing a separatist rebellion in the eastern part of the country, a conflict that has left more than 14,000 people dead. 

Kazakh leader orders use of force

According to Associated Press, President of Kazakhstan said Friday he authorized law enforcement to open fire on terrorists and shoot to kill, a move that comes after days of extremely violent protests in the former Soviet nation.

In a televised address to the nation, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev blamed the unrest on terrorists and militants and said that he had authorized the use of lethal force against them.

“Those who don’t surrender will be eliminated,” Tokayev said.

He also blasted calls for talks with the protesters made by some other countries as nonsense. “What negotiations can be held with criminals, murderers?” Tokayev said.

Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry reported Friday that 26 protesters had been killed during the unrest, 18 were wounded and more than 3,000 people have been detained. A total of 18 law enforcement officers were reported killed as well, and over 700 sustained injuries.

Kazakhstan is experiencing the worst street protests since the country gained independence three decades ago. The demonstrations began over a near-doubling of prices for a type of vehicle fuel and quickly spread across the country, reflecting wider discontent over the rule of the same party since independence.

Protests have turned extremely violent, with government buildings set ablaze and scores of protesters and more than a dozen law enforcement officers killed. Internet across the country has been shut down, and two airports closed, including one in Almaty, the country’s largest city.

In a concession, the government on Thursday announced a 180-day price cap on vehicle fuel and a moratorium on utility rate increases. Tokayev has vacillated between trying to mollify the protesters, including accepting the resignation of his government, and promising harsh measures to quell the unrest, which he blamed on terrorist bands.

In what was seen as one such measure, the president has called on a Russia-led military alliance for help.

The alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, includes the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and has started deploying troops to Kazakhstan for a peacekeeping mission.

Kazakh officials have insisted that the troops will not be fighting the demonstrators, and instead will take on guarding government institutions.

On Friday, Tokayev declared that constitutional order was mainly restored in all regions of the country” and that “local authorities are in control of the situation.

The president added, however, that terrorists are still using weapons and are damaging people’s property and that counterterrorist actions should be continued.

Skirmishes in Almaty were still reported on Friday morning. Russia’s state news agency Tass reported that the building occupied by the Kazakh branch of the Mir broadcaster, funded by several former Soviet states, was on fire.

However, the Almaty airport — stormed and seized earlier by the protesters — was back under the control of Kazakh law enforcement and CSTO peacekeepers, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Friday. The airport will remain shut until Friday evening, local TV station Khabar 24 reported, citing the airport’s spokespeople.

In other parts of the country some things started to go back to normal. In the capital, Nur-Sultan, access to the internet has been partially restored, and train traffic has been resumed across Kazakhstan.

The airport in the capital is operating as usual, Khabar 24 reported. According to the TV channel, airlines will resume domestic flights to the cities of Shymkent, Turkestan and Atyrau, as well as flights to Moscow and Dubai, starting from 0900 GMT.

 

Petition to strip Tony Blair of Knighthood

A petition calling for former British Prime Minister Tony Blair's knighthood to be rescinded has been signed by more than a quarter of a million people. The ex-Labour leader was appointed a Knight Companion of the Most Noble Order of the Garter - the highest possible honour - in the New Year's Honours List. 

But the accolade has sparked a backlash from critics, with some saying he doesn't deserve an honour, and others going further and branding him a "war criminal" for his decision to take Britain to war in Iraq. 

 The petition, started by Angus Scott, says, "Tony Blair caused irreparable damage to both the constitution of the United Kingdom and to the very fabric of the nation's society.

"He was personally responsible for causing the death of countless innocent, civilian lives and servicemen in various conflicts. For this alone he should be held accountable for war crimes.

"Tony Blair is the least deserving person of any public honour, particularly anything awarded by Her Majesty the Queen.

"We petition the Prime Minister to petition Her Majesty to have this honour removed."

Tony, who was British Prime Minister between 1997 and 2007, has come under fire repeatedly for his involvement in the war in Iraq.

Knighthoods have been bestowed regularly on former prime ministers.

Following the announcing, Tony said, "It is an immense honour to be appointed Knight Companion of the Most Noble Order of the Garter, and I am deeply grateful to Her Majesty the Queen.

"It was a great privilege to serve as prime minister and I would like to thank all those who served alongside me, in politics, public service and all parts of our society, for their dedication and commitment to our country."

Blair has come under fire since receiving a Knighthood, with some branding him a war criminal for his decision to take Britain to war over Iraq.

Amid the backlash against his honour, Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle said he thought all former prime ministers should be offered a knighthood. 

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today program he said, "Whatever people might think, it is one of the toughest jobs in the world and I think it is respectful and it is the right thing to do, whether it is to Tony Blair or to David Cameron. They should all be offered that knighthood when they finish as prime minister."

Israeli overindulgence becoming headache for United States

For decades, the primary concern of the United States, under both democratic and republican administrations, is to make sure that Israel is able and ready to defend itself. 

The US citizens pay for expansionist policies and influential lobbies of Israel in the US political power structure, under the justification of securing the country's interests.

The truth is, contrary to what US officials constantly claim, unilateral and unconditional support for Israel always has the opposite effect. Not only has it not resolved the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it also has made the United States ousting from the region a uniting objective for Western Asian populations, giving rise to terrorism and extremism.

Israel's opposition to the US returning to the Iran deal is another classic example of the Zionists' attempt to turn its concerns with removing Iran sanctions into a global one. They argue to the European and the US governments that the deal is flawed and that Plan B ‑ military option ‑ is inevitable. According to the US strategic national security documents, it is in its best interest to establish peace and stability in West Asia and the Persian Gulf.

It is necessary to reiterate that the unequivocal and unwavering support for Israel not only does the United States interests disservice, but it also runs counter to it. It further angers the Muslim nations and encourages masses to oppose and actively target the US interests in the region.

Perhaps it is time for the members of Congress and the Federal government to pay closer attention to Israel playing the victim card and manipulatively globalizing its interests. It is wasting the US tax-payers’ money and putting the lives of the US soldiers in danger, to only secure Israel’s security and its interests.

Therefore, it is clear that the Israeli regime manipulates the US administration to achieve its most wanted objective and interest of taking a strike on Iran by removing its key player. Sadly, the Trump administration succumbed to Israel's demand to make an unlawful killing, leaving Iran with no retaliatory option other than firing a barrage of rockets at Ain Al-Assad Base housing the US troops. The attack, unprecedented as it was, led to several wounded US soldiers, and, above all, it discredited and humiliated the United States in regional and global arenas.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has never recognized Israel as a legitimate state. Therefore, Israeli officials and the Zionist lobbyists in Washington direct their destabilizing activities toward the Islamic Republic and never miss an opportunity to turn the US administrations against the Islamic Republic.

One of the many tipping moments when Israeli officials proved most influential in the US foreign policy decision-making was the unlawful assassination of General Soleimani, which has been admitted to by Israeli intelligence officials.

In an interview with the Israel Channel 12, Tamir Hayman, a former Israeli intelligence chief, acknowledged that the Israeli intelligence services informed the US officials that the Iranian Quds General had been planning on an extensive military operation, in the Persian Gulf, against the American forces. Accordingly, the US forces were on alert for possible Iranian aggression.

Contrary to what the Israeli officials claimed, General Soleimani and his associates flew to Iraq on a civilian airplane to carry a message about “the Baghdad Initiative” to reduce regional tensions, according to Adil Abdul-Mahdi, the former Iraq Prime Minister.

Iran demands lifting sanctions

Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on salvaging the 2015 Iran nuclear deal resumed with Tehran focusing on one side of the original bargain, lifting sanctions against it, despite scant progress on reining in its atomic activities.

The seventh round of talks, the first under Iran's new hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi, ended after adding some new Iranian demands to a working text. Western powers said progress was too slow and negotiators had ‘weeks not months’ left before the 2015 deal becomes meaningless.

Little remains of that deal, which lifted sanctions against Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its atomic activities. Then-President Donald Trump pulled Washington out of it in 2018, re-imposing US sanctions, and Iran later breached many of the deal's nuclear restrictions and kept pushing well beyond them.

"If we work hard in the days and weeks ahead we should have a positive result.... It's going to be very difficult; it's going to be very hard. Difficult political decisions have to be taken both in Tehran and in Washington," the talks' coordinator, European Union envoy Enrique Mora, told a news conference.

He was speaking shortly after a meeting of the remaining parties to the deal - Iran, Russia, China, France, Britain, Germany and the European Union - formally kicked off the round.

"There is a sense of urgency in all delegations that this negotiation has to be finished in a relatively reasonable period of time. Again, I wouldn't put limits but we are talking about weeks, not about months," Mora said.

Iran refuses to meet directly with US officials, meaning that other parties must shuttle between the two sides. The United States has repeatedly expressed frustration at this format, saying it slows down the process, and Western officials still suspect Iran is simply playing for time.

The 2015 deal extended the time Iran would need to obtain enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb, if it chose to, to at least a year from around two to three months. Most experts say that time is now less than before the deal; though Iran says it only wants to master nuclear technology for civil uses.

"The most important issue for us is to reach a point where, firstly, Iranian oil can be sold easily and without hindrance," Iranian media quoted Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian as saying.

Iran insists all US sanctions must be lifted before steps are taken on the nuclear side, while Western negotiators say nuclear and sanctions steps must be balanced.

US sanctions have slashed Iran's oil exports, its main revenue source. Tehran does not disclose data, but assessments based on shipping and other sources suggest a fall from about 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to as low as 200,000 bpd.

Mora said he decided to reconvene the talks during many officials' holidays between Christmas and the New Year so as not to lose time, but he added that talks would stop for three days as of Friday "because the facilities will not be available", referring to the luxury hotel hosting most meetings.

When the seventh round wrapped up, incorporating some Iranian demands, negotiators from France, Britain and Germany said in a statement: "This only takes us back nearer to where the talks stood in June", when the previous round ended.

"We are rapidly reaching the end of the road for this negotiation," they added.

 

OPEC Plus to add 400,000 bpd oil production in February

OPEC Plus decided on Tuesday to add another 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its total oil production in February. The move was widely expected by the market, but oil prices rose 1% just after the meeting concluded

At the end of a very short ministerial meeting, the cartel did not deviate from its current plan to ease the production cuts by 400,000 bpd each month until it unwinds all the supply curbs. The move was widely expected by the market, and oil prices were up by around 1% just after news of the decision broke.

Before the meeting started, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, officially closed the previous meeting from December 2, which OPEC Plus had left in session, signaling it could revisit last month’s decision to raise production by 400,000 bpd in January if Omicron hits global oil demand hard.

At 33 days, the meeting that opened on December 2 was the longest ever, at least on paper, in the history of OPEC and OPEC Plus.

The meeting opened and closed and didn’t produce any surprises about the OPEC+ group’s immediate oil supply policy. The cartel is anticipated to continue to raise production by 400,000 bpd in February and extend the compensation period until June 2022.

During the meeting, non-OPEC producer Kazakhstan was called out for its low compliance with the cuts, and was pressured to improve its conformity level, Amena Bakr, Deputy Bureau Chief and Chief OPEC Correspondent at Energy Intelligence, reported, citing delegates.

Days before Tuesday’s meeting, the general market sentiment, and expectations were that the cartel would likely proceed with its oil production policy of the past few months by deciding to add another 400,000 bpd to production quotas in February.

The next meeting of OPEC Plus is scheduled to be held on February 2, 2022 when the group is expected to decide production levels for March. 

Israel made efforts to derail Pakistan nuclear program

Reportedly, Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad is suspected of detonating bombs and issuing threats to German and Swiss companies in the 1980s that helped Pakistan in its nascent nuclear weapons program.

Lately, the prominent Swiss daily Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) reported on the findings. According to the paper, “The suspicion that the Mossad might be behind the attacks and threats soon arose. For Israel, the prospect that Pakistan, for the first time, could become an Islamic state with an atomic bomb posed an existential threat.”

The paper reported that Pakistan and Iran worked closely together in the 1980s on the construction of nuclear weapons devices. According to the NZZ, the intensive work of companies from Germany and Switzerland in aiding Iran’s nuclear program “has been relatively well researched.”

The paper quoted the Swiss historian Adrian Hänni who said the Mossad was likely involved in the bomb attacks of Swiss and German companies added, there was no “smoking gun” to prove the Mossad carried out the attacks.

The Organization for the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia, a previously unknown entity, claimed credit for the explosions in Switzerland and Germany.

The NZZ reports on the role of the late Pakistani nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan’s atomic weapons program. He crisscrossed Europe during the 1980s to secure technology and blueprints from Western institutions and companies. The paper wrote that Khan met in a Zurich hotel with a delegation of Iran’s Organization for Atomic Energy in 1987.  The Iranian delegation was led by the engineer Masud Naraghi, the chief of Iran’s nuclear energy commission.

Two German engineers, Gotthard Lerch and Heinz Mebus, along with Naraghi, who earned his PhD in the USA, met with Khan’s group in Switzerland. Additional meetings took place in Dubai.

With the fast-moving efforts by Pakistan to jumpstart its nuclear weapons program, the US government sought, without success, to get the German and Swiss governments to crack down on companies in their countries that were aiding Pakistan. Suspected Mossad agents allegedly took action in Switzerland and Germany against the companies and engineers involved in aiding Pakistan.

According to the NZZ, “A few months after the unsuccessful intervention of the US State Department in Bonn and Bern, unknown perpetrators carried out explosive attacks on three of these companies: on February 20, 1981 on the house of a leading employee of Cora Engineering Chur; on May 18, 1981  on the factory building of the Wälischmiller company in Markdorf;  and finally, on November 06, 1981, on the engineering office of Heinz Mebus in Erlangen. All three attacks resulted in only property damage, only Mebus's dog was killed.”

The paper highlighted, “The explosives attacks were accompanied by several phone calls in which strangers threatened other delivery companies in English or broken German. Sometimes the caller would order the threats to be taped. ‘The attack that we carried out against the Wälischmiller company could happen to you too’ - this is how the Leybold-Heraeus administration office was intimidated.

Siegfried Schertler, the owner of VAT at the time, and his head salesman Tinner were called several times on their private lines. Schertler also reported to the Swiss Federal Police that the Israeli secret service had contacted him. This emerges from the investigation files, which the NZZ was able to see for the first time.”

Schertler said an employee of the Israeli embassy in Germany named David, contacted the VAT executive. The company head said that David urged him to stop ‘these businesses’ regarding nuclear weapons and switch to the textile business.

Swiss and German companies derived significant profits from their business with the Khan nuclear weapons network. The NZZ reported “Many of these suppliers, mainly from Germany and Switzerland, soon entered into business worth millions with Pakistan. Leybold-Heraeus, Wälischmiller, Cora Engineering Chur, Vakuum-Apparate-Technik (VAT, with the chief buyer Friedrich Tinner) or the Buchs metal works, to name a few. They benefited from an important circumstance. The German and Swiss authorities interpreted their dual-use provisions very generously. Most of the components that are required for uranium enrichment, for example, high-precision vacuum valves, are primarily used for civil purposes.”

The NZZ reported that recently the National Security Archive in Washington published diplomatic correspondence from the US State Department from Bonn and Bern in 1980.

“This shows how the US resented the two countries' casual handling of the delicate deliveries to Pakistan. In a note from an employee, Bern's behavior was described as a ‘hands-off approach’ - the local authorities were accordingly accused of turning a blind eye. In the now released dispatches, which were previously classified as secret, those companies are listed for the first time that the US has accused of supporting the Pakistani nuclear weapons program with their deliveries. The list included around half a dozen companies each from Germany and Switzerland.”

 

 

Who hacked The Jerusalem Post website?

According to a report by The Jerusalem Post, its website was hacked by pro-Iranian hackers in the early hours of Monday morning, with a photo of a model Dimona nuclear facility being blown up and the text "we are close to you where you do not think about it" in English and Hebrew placed on the Twitter and website. 

It is unclear if the hackers were from Iran or supporters from outside the country or if they were state-sponsored.

The photo also showed a ballistic missile falling from what appears to be a representation of the hand of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. Sunday night marked the second anniversary of the US assassination of Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020.

The tweet with the photo on Maariv's Twitter account has since been removed, as well as a retweet of an account with the handle @ShiaEagle including an illustration of Soleimani and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (who was assassinated alongside Soleimani). The @ShiaEagle account, created in the summer of 2021, has since been suspended as well.

From the inspect tool on Google Chrome, it appears the hackers managed to edit the SEO keywords of the Jerusalem Post website.

The newspaper wrote, “The Iranian people have more pressing issues at hand than the clumsy attempts at propaganda.”

This isn't the first time The Jerusalem Post has been targeted.

In May 2020, pro-Iranian hackers replaced the site's homepage with an illustration of Tel Aviv burning as then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swam for a life preserver with the words "Be ready for a big surprise." A number of additional Israeli websites were targeted in the attack then as well.