Colin Powell embarks upon eternal journey

General Colin Powell, the first black American, former US Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, passed away on Monday due to complications from Covid 19. He was fully vaccinated. 

"We want to thank the medical staff at Walter Reed National Medical Center for their caring treatment,” the Powell family said in a statement posted on Facebook. “We have lost a remarkable and loving husband, father, grandfather and a great American,” the family added.

Powell, born on April 5, 1937, in New York City, was raised by Jamaican immigrant parents in the South Bronx. The family said the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had been fully vaccinated and was receiving treatment at Walter Reed National Medical Center. Powell reportedly had been diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a type of cancer. 

Following a decorated military career that included tours in Vietnam, Powell held key military and diplomatic positions throughout government, serving under both Democratic and Republican presidents. Powell endorsed then-candidate Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.

Former President George Bush, who tapped Powell to serve as his secretary of State, said he was “deeply saddened” by the military leader’s death.

“Laura and I are deeply saddened by the death of Colin Powell.

He was a great public servant, starting with his time as a soldier during Vietnam. Many Presidents relied on General Powell’s counsel and experience,” Bush said in a statement.

“He was National Security Adviser under President Reagan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under my father and President Clinton, and Secretary of State during my Administration. He was such a favorite of Presidents that he earned the Presidential Medal of Freedom — twice. He was highly respected at home and abroad. And most important, Colin was a family man and a friend. Laura and I send Alma and their children our sincere condolences as they remember the life of a great man,” he added.

Powell first joined the Reagan administration in 1987 as national security adviser, becoming the first Black individual to serve in the role. He later transitioned to chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1989, a position he held for four years under former Presidents George Bush and Clinton. 

Calls for Powell to wage a presidential bid ramped up ahead of the 1996 election following the US-led coalition’s win in the Gulf War. He ultimately passed on a campaign of his own, concluding that he did not have a “passion” for elected politics.

The four-star general reentered the political sphere in 2001, when he was tapped by George Bush to serve as secretary of State, breaking another barrier and becoming the first Black American to serve in the role. He served in the post until 2005.

Powell led the US on the diplomatic front in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, helping to secure support from other countries for the war on terror and invasion of Afghanistan. The secretary also faced criticism for his push for invading Iraq in 2003.

In a speech before the United Nations in February 2003, Powell showed what he said was evidence from US intelligence that illustrated that the Iraqi military was misleading United Nations inspectors and concealing weapons of mass destruction.

“There can be no doubt that Saddam Hussein has biological weapons and the capability to rapidly produce more, many more,” Powell said in his speech.

Inspectors, however, later said that weapons of mass destruction did not exist in Iraq.

In 2005, two years after Powell’s speech before the UN, a government report concluded that the intelligence community was “dead wrong” in its claim that Iraq was holding weapons of mass destruction prior to the United States' invasion.

Powell later said his speech before the UN was a “blot” on his record and recognized that it would be a part of his legacy, adding that he regretted delivering the remarks.

“I regret it now because the information was wrong — of course I do,” Powell told CNN’s Larry King in November 2010. “But I will always be seen as the one who made the case before the international community.” “I swayed public opinion, there's no question about it,” he added.

In his memoir “It Worked for Me,” published in 2012, Powell again discussed the speech, writing that “the event will earn a prominent paragraph in my obituary," according to CNN.

Powell studied at the City College of New York, where he participated in ROTC.

After graduating in 1958, Powell joined the US Army and was twice deployed to South Vietnam, where he was wounded twice.

Powell waded into the political arena during the Trump administration, announcing after the January 6 attack on the Capitol that he no longer considered himself a Republican.

Asked by CNN’s Fareed Zakaria if he believes “fellow Republicans” who have not criticized former President Trump “encouraged, at least, this wildness to grow and grow,” Powell said, “They did, and that’s why I can no longer call myself a Republican.”

“I’m not a fellow of anything right now. I’m just a citizen who has voted Republican, voted Democrat throughout my entire career, and right now I’m just watching my country and not concerned with parties,” he said.

 “I do not know how he was able to attract all of these people. They should have known better, but they were so taken by their political standing and how none of them wanted to put themselves at political risk. They would not stand up and tell the truth or stand up and criticize him or criticize others,” he added.

  

Iranian trade with neighbors up 52%YoY

The value of Iran’s non-oil trade with its 15 neighbors rose to US$22.588 billion in the first six months of the current Iranian calendar year, posting 52% increase year on year (YoY). This was stated by the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA).

The Islamic Republic traded over 47.222 million tons of commodities with the neighboring countries in the mentioned year, IRIB quoted Ruhollah Latifi.

The volume of the traded goods in the mentioned period also increased by 37% as compared to the figure for the previous year’s same period.

Iran traded a total of 79.104 million tons of non-oil products worth US$44.926 billion with its trade partners during this period.

Trade with neighboring countries in the first half of the year accounted for 60% and 50% of the country’s total non-oil trade during the said period, in terms of weight and value, respectively.

The country exported over 36.087 million tons of non-oil goods worth more than US$11.218 billion to the neighboring countries in the period under review, while imported more than 19.138 million tons of goods worth over US$11.369 billion.

Iraq was Iran’s top export destination, importing $3.840 billion worth of commodities from the Islamic Republic, while the lowest volume of exports was made to Saudi Arabia with only US$39,000, according to Latifi.

After Iraq, the main export destinations for Iranian products and goods were Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Afghanistan and Pakistan.

On the other hand, the highest volume of Iran's imports from neighboring countries was made from the UAE with US$7.305 billion, followed by Turkey, Russia, Iraq and Oman.

Increasing non-oil exports to the neighboring countries is one of the major plans that the Iranian government has been pursuing in recent years.

Iran shares land or water borders with 15 countries namely UAE, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Saudi Arabia.

According to IRICA, Iran currently exports non-oil commodities to 40 European countries, 21 Asian countries, 28 African countries, and 12 American countries, while importing from 41 European countries, 31 Asian countries, 12 American countries, and 11 countries in Africa.

Egypt an emerging global logistics hub

The government of Egypt has introduced a fully automated customs process aimed at significantly improving processing time and reducing costs for companies exporting goods to Egypt. 

The new trade facilitation technology—the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system—was successfully implemented on October 1 across all of Egypt’s ports, and is being applied to all goods imported into the country.

By using digital methods underpinned by block chain technology, the new customs system dispenses with paper documents, enabling goods to be checked and cleared before they reach Egyptian ports. The technology also strengthens risk management systems, identifying goods before they are shipped.

At the time of its launch, 38,700 exporters from around the world were registered to the new system, which has been broadly welcomed by Egypt’s trade partners. “This new trade facilitation technology will make it simpler, easier and cheaper for all companies exporting goods to Egypt,” said Jan Noether, CEO of the German-Arab Chamber of Commerce (AHK Egypt). “It shows that Egypt is not only open for business, but serious about maximizing its location at the crossroads of the world to become one of the world’s great trading economies.”

Independent evaluation shows that Egypt’s customs processing times have already improved by 55%.

Egypt is Africa’s second-largest importer; responsible for total imports in 2019 valued at $76.4 billion, and it is the world’s largest importer of wheat and asphalt. The biggest exporting countries to Egypt are China, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Germany and Turkey.

At the launch of ACI, in Cairo, H.E. Dr. Mohamed Maait, Egypt’s Minister of Finance, described the implementation of ACI as “a crucial step in our plans to transform Egypt’s trade infrastructure. This new technology will make it much easier for companies all over the world to trade with Egypt, helping to deliver the government’s plan to create the most advanced logistics hub in the region.”

“The implementation of the Advance Cargo Information system is a crucial step in our plans to transform Egypt’s trade infrastructure. This new technology will make it much easier for companies all over the world to trade with Egypt, helping to deliver the government’s plan to create the most advanced logistics hub in the region.”

 In April 2019, the Egyptian government launched the National Single Window for Foreign Trade Facilitation (Nafeza), a single digital trade portal for all import, export and transit operations that links all of Egypt’s ports. The transformation program has also included the establishment of high-tech logistics centers in Cairo, East and West Port Said, Port Tawfik, Ain Sokhna, Damietta, Dakhilah and Alexandria to ensure that port facilities are transiting goods efficiently.

An evaluation shows that Egypt’s customs processing times have already improved by 55% since the portal was launched—a significant step in realizing the objective of reducing customs clearance time to less than one day.

Nafeza is part of an ambitious economic program to drive the wholesale modernization of the Egyptian economy. This initiative includes a $4 billion overhaul of Egypt’s ports, involving 58 wide-ranging projects that include the construction of new berths, trading yards and wharves as well as the dredging of shipping lanes and port docks. Plans are also in progress to develop a series of dry ports that will connect Egypt’s seaports to inland locations.

The dry port connections are part of a major railway and road expansion program—comprising more than 2,000 projects—set to be completed by 2024. Flagship projects include a highway linking Egypt with nine other African countries to boost Egypt’s exports to the continent, and a high-speed railway between Egyptian ports on the Red Sea and the Mediterranean coast. In line with Egypt Vision 2030, launched in February 2016, Egypt plans to almost double trade in goods and services, from 37% of the economy to 65%.

In 2020, Egypt attracted the second-highest level of foreign direct investment in the Arab world and was the biggest recipient of FDI funds in Africa.

Egypt’s infrastructure upgrades are part of a broader package of economic reforms to improve the country’s business environment and attract investment. Despite the impact of the pandemic, particularly on the country’s vital tourism sector, the Egyptian economy was one of the few emerging markets to experience growth last year. Egypt’s exports in June were up nearly 50% from the same month last year, while its trade deficit fell by over a quarter, according to data from the country’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. In 2020, Egypt attracted the second-highest levels of foreign direct investment in the Arab world, and was the biggest recipient of FDI funds in Africa.

Egypt is Africa’s top manufacturing hub, accounting for 22% of the continent’s value added in this sector, according to OECD, and the country’s reforms seek to boost the country’s manufacturing base. A key component of the economy, manufacturing is set to expand further as the country develops new sectors such as Covid vaccine and electric car production.

The OECD has also recognized, in a report published in July, that a growing number of firms are choosing Egypt as their production base for the African continent and the Middle East, and benefiting from the large number of free-trade agreements signed between Egypt and African, Arab, European and Latin American countries.

Aukus pact attracts mixed response from Asia

It’s been nearly a month since the United States, Britain and Australia stunned the world with their new Aukus pact that will deliver a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra. China reacted with rage, angered by what it saw as a clear move by the West to further encircle it. 

France, meanwhile, felt deeply betrayed by Australia’s eleventh hour decision to cancel a long-standing submarine deal with it in place of the new deal. Others have quietly applauded Aukus, and there are some governments that have maintained a stoic silence. 

It is necessary to critically review the diverse responses to one of the most significant security developments in recent decades. 

Asia’s varied reactions to the Aukus security pact between Australia, Britain and the United States offered a fresh indication of just how diverse the region is when it comes to their outlook on the future of the region’s balance of power.

Expectedly, reactions from Australia were particularly fulsome, given that Canberra is the biggest beneficiary of the pact. 

Under the deal, Australia will become only the second country after Britain to receive nuclear-powered submarine technology from the US. 

Prime Minister, Scott Morrison’s government plans to have a fleet of eight nuclear-powered submarines operationally ready in the 2040s.

Among Australia’s foreign policy elite, the move — which resulted in the scrapping of an earlier order for French diesel-powered submarines — was an urgent necessity given fears about increasing Chinese naval assertions in the neighbourhood.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, China responded in blistering fashion and lost no time in painting the pact as the latest effort by the West to strategically encircle the Asian superpower.

Beijing described the deal as “extremely irresponsible”, and mainland analysts echoed that view. 

Lu Xiang, a US-China scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told soon after the deal was announced that it indicated that Australia was “tying itself completely to America’s chariot”.

Reactions by governments elsewhere in Asia put in focus how they viewed the deal through the prism of their own national interests. 

In India, for example, some strategic watchers lamented: what about us? In their view, New Delhi should have been offered the US nuclear submarine technology first, given their intensifying strategic ties in recent years. 

In Japan, contrastingly, the Aukus deal was welcomed amid anxieties over whether Tokyo’s defensive-minded military had the ability to contend with increasing Chinese assertions. 

The government stated publicly that it welcomed the three Western allies strengthening “their commitment to the region”.

Reactions from Southeast Asia -home to the deftest of geopolitical fence sitters - naturally was mixed. 

Singapore, seen as one of Washington’s closest strategic partners in the region, was cautious not to be effusive about the pact. Instead, officials said they understood why the deal was struck and hoped it would contribute constructively to regional peace. 

Neighbouring Malaysia, meanwhile, said it was concerned the pact would “catalyze a nuclear arms race” in the Indo-Pacific.

The Philippines offered what appeared to be a full throated support, with Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin saying he viewed Australia’s submarine procurement plan as an “enhancement of a near-abroad ally’s ability to project power” to “restore and keep the balance” of power in the region. It would be foolhardy to consider these positions as set in stone, however. 

Thus far, countries that have maintained strategic silence or offered support for Aukus appear to have taken at face value Australia’s promise that the pact is not aimed at third parties, including China.

But if there is increased volatility in the South China Sea and other hotspots arising from the deal, expect countries to alter their positions quickly. There are after all no permanent friends or enemies in Asian geopolitics — only permanent interests.

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses return of feel good factor

The feel good factor returned to Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The benchmark index gained 345 points during the week to close at 44,822 level on Friday, up 0.8% WoW. Rising hope of revival of IMF program and civil-military leadership reaching consensus over the appointment of new ISI chief fueled the market performance.

Commercial Banks emerged as the outperformers during the week amid increased likelihood of further rate hikes in the upcoming Monetary Policy Announcement, gaining 3.6%WoW, followed by Pharmaceutical and Cement sectors, up 2.0%WoW and 1.6%WoW respectively, owing to revision in prices. Participation during the week improved with average daily traded volume rising to 342 million shares, from 266 million shares traded a week ago. Cement prices increased by Rs45/bag to Rs710/bag whereas Automobile sales jumped 68%YoY to 82,000 units.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP agreeing to withdraw GST exemptions worth Rs334 billion in order to revive IMF program, 2) Country receiving US$8 billion in remittances during 1QFY22, up 12.5 percent, 3) Country retiring foreign Sukuk worth US$1.0 billion, 4) Cotton prices surging to Rs14,500 per mound in local market, 5) Expats invested US$2.4 billion in RDA and 6) ENGRO announcing plan to invest up to US$1.8 billion under petrochemical policy.

Top performers of the market were: GATI, ABL, FFBL, HBL, and LOTCHEM, while laggards included: HASCOL, KAPCO, ANL, TRG and JLICL.

Top volume leaders included WTL, UNITY, TELE, TREET and HASCOL.

Flow wise, Insurance remained the major buyers with (net buy of US$12.2 million) followed by Mutual Funds (net buy of USD3.4 million) while Companies stood on the other side with (net sell of US$3.3 million) followed by Individuals (net sell of US$3.2 million).

With the onset of the result season, the market performance will be dictated by the corporate profitability where analysts expect the earnings to grow. Furthermore, the formal announcement of the new ISI head will also help settle jitters on the bourse.

The GoP is also under negotiations with IMF to revive its plan and any developments on the hike in energy tariffs and withdrawal of tax exemptions will also be closely tracked.

Market participants should look to invest in the Banks where possibility of further interest rate hikes could bring the sector into limelight. Major result announcements during next week include PTC, SSGC, PABC and UBL.

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses return of feel good factor

The feel good factor returned to Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The benchmark index gained 345 points during the week to close at 44,822 level on Friday, up 0.8% WoW. Rising hope of revival of IMF program and civil-military leadership reaching consensus over the appointment of new ISI chief fueled the market performance.

Commercial Banks emerged as the outperformers during the week amid increased likelihood of further rate hikes in the upcoming Monetary Policy Announcement, gaining 3.6%WoW, followed by Pharmaceutical and Cement sectors, up 2.0%WoW and 1.6%WoW respectively, owing to revision in prices. Participation during the week improved with average daily traded volume rising to 342 million shares, from 266 million shares traded a week ago. Cement prices increased by Rs45/bag to Rs710/bag whereas Automobile sales jumped 68%YoY to 82,000 units.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP agreeing to withdraw GST exemptions worth Rs334 billion in order to revive IMF program, 2) Country receiving US$8 billion in remittances during 1QFY22, up 12.5 percent, 3) Country retiring foreign Sukuk worth US$1.0 billion, 4) Cotton prices surging to Rs14,500 per mound in local market, 5) Expats invested US$2.4 billion in RDA and 6) ENGRO announcing plan to invest up to US$1.8 billion under petrochemical policy.

Top performers of the market were: GATI, ABL, FFBL, HBL, and LOTCHEM, while laggards included: HASCOL, KAPCO, ANL, TRG and JLICL.

Top volume leaders included WTL, UNITY, TELE, TREET and HASCOL.

Flow wise, Insurance remained the major buyers with (net buy of US$12.2 million) followed by Mutual Funds (net buy of USD3.4 million) while Companies stood on the other side with (net sell of US$3.3 million) followed by Individuals (net sell of US$3.2 million).

With the onset of the result season, the market performance will be dictated by the corporate profitability where analysts expect the earnings to grow. Furthermore, the formal announcement of the new ISI head will also help settle jitters on the bourse.

The GoP is also under negotiations with IMF to revive its plan and any developments on the hike in energy tariffs and withdrawal of tax exemptions will also be closely tracked.

Market participants should look to invest in the Banks where possibility of further interest rate hikes could bring the sector into limelight. Major result announcements during next week include PTC, SSGC, PABC and UBL.

Time to take action against Islamic State Khorasan in Afghanistan and Pakistan

The Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) group claimed the suicide bombing of a Shiite mosque in the Afghan city of Kandahar on Friday that killed at least 41 people and wounded scores more. The jihadist group said that two suicide bombers carried out separate attacks on different parts of the mosque while worshippers prayed inside.

"The first suicide bomber detonated his explosive vest... in a mosque hallway, while the second suicide bomber detonated his explosive vest in the mosque's centre," the statement said.

The assault in the southern city -- the Taliban's spiritual heartland -- came just a week after a deadly suicide attack on Shiite worshippers at a mosque in northern Kunduz, which was also claimed by the IS group.

The Taliban, which seized control of Afghanistan in mid-August after overthrowing the US-backed government, has its own history of persecuting Shiites.

But the new Taliban-led government has vowed to stabilize the country, and in the wake of the Kunduz attack promised to protect the Shiite minority now living under its rule.

Shiites are estimated to make up roughly 10% of the Afghan population. Many of them are Hazara, an ethnic group that has been persecuted in Afghanistan for decades.

The Islamic State – Khorasan is an affiliate of the Islamic State (IS) active in South Asia and Central Asia. Some media sources also use the terms ISK (or IS–K), ISISK (or ISIS–K), IS–KP or Daesh–Khorasan in referring to the group. ISKP has been active in Afghanistan and its area of operations includes Pakistan, Tajikistan and India where they claimed attacks, as well as Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Bangladesh where individuals have pledged allegiance to it. ISKP and the Taliban consider each other enemies.

The group was created in January 2015 by disaffected Taliban in eastern Afghanistan, although its membership includes individuals from various countries notably Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Myanmar. Its initial leaders, Hafiz Saeed Khan and Abdul Rauf Aliza, were killed by US forces in July 2016 and February 2015, respectively. Subsequent leaders have also been killed; its leader Abdullah Orokzai was captured in April 2020 by Afghanistan's intelligence service.

ISKP has conducted numerous high-profile attacks against civilians mostly in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In July 2018, ISKP bombings killed 149 in Mastung, Pakistan. In May 2021, an ISKP bombing killed 90 in Kabul. In August 2021, ISKP killed 13 American military personnel and at least 169 Afghans during the US evacuation of Kabul, which marked the highest number of U.S. military deaths in an attack in Afghanistan since 2011.

 

Supply chain backlog at ports in United States to linger on until summer of 2022

According to The Epoch Times, despite announcement by US President Joe Biden the severely backlogged Port of Los Angeles would expand into 24/7 operating hours—similar to the Port of Long Beach. However, port officials are saying the backlog will continue until the summer of 2022.

Noel Hacegaba, Deputy Executive Director of the Port of Long Beach, said expanding the ports’ operating hours will not impact the supply chain disruptions given the continued shortage of truck drivers, chassis equipment, and warehouse operations and space.

“We think it’ll be summer of 2022 before we clear all 60 ships,” Hacegaba told The Epoch Times. “Of course, if we take some measures now and everyone in the supply chain starts expanding their hours of operation … we’re going to get there sooner.”

Hacegaba showed optimism that expanding port hours of operation will encourage the rest of the supply chain to step up their efforts.

“If we had the warehouse capacity, if we had enough truck drivers, enough trucks, enough chassis, to pull those containers, we wouldn’t have the 60 ships which are effectively serving as warehouses on the water. I mean, that’s what they’re doing. They’re storing these containers,” Hacegaba said.

Other experts are more pessimistic about the about the impact of Biden’s announcement, saying it will require a lot more than just the ports to solve the backlog.

“I think the Biden Administration looked at the low-hanging fruit and finally took action,” said Sal Mercogliano, a Professor of maritime industry policy at the US Merchant Marine Academy out of New York. “The move is better late than never, but should have been addressed sooner than this.”

Mercogliano said addressing one end of the supply chain does not solve the problem.

“Everything must be done simultaneously,” including not only addressing the current shortage of truck drivers, but increasing operations of receiving retailers as well, he said.

In a virtual briefing, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said he was happy to be working with the Biden Administration on addressing the backlog, but was unsure about when 24/7 operations would commence and if all seven terminals at the port would follow the suit.

“The anticipation is that everybody will be 24/7, but those discussions are ongoing … it’s matching up commitments with how we need to service these folks. The dwell times have been super high, we’ve got to push this cargo out as quickly as we can [and] take advantage of that latent capacity when we’re not using our gates and matching that up with truck power, chassis, and corresponding exports and imports,” Seroka said.

When Seroka was asked when the first terminal would begin operating 24/7, he said more discussions will need to take place.

The two ports, which are responsible for about 40% of all imports into the United States, are on track to get more than 20 million container units this year, Hacegaba said, which is significantly more than 17.5 million units in 2020.

Supply chain disruptions can upset world order

Supply chain snarls and labor shortages are driving prices higher and creating shortages as the economy struggles to adapt to a new phase of the coronavirus pandemic.

After slashing prices and laying off workers at the onset of COVID-19, manufacturers, suppliers and retailers have struggled for months to meet the quick rebound in demand unleashed by unprecedented federal aid and highly effective coronavirus vaccines.

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September and 5.4% in the 12 months leading into it, according to data released Wednesday by the Labor Department. Much of the September jump came from rising food, energy and shelter prices — an economically challenging mix for Americans with tight budgets and a politically toxic combination for President Biden and Democrats.

Deepening backlogs at ports and worker shortages at nearly every point in the supply chain have also left shelves depleted of popular products — just as Americans begin planning out their holiday purchases.

“The demand is there. There's close to US$2 trillion in savings sitting in household accounts, the American consumer is flush with cash and ready to move back towards what we might consider normal modes of consumption,” said Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at audit and tax firm RSM.

While the Biden administration is scrambling to ease the problem, Brusuelas warned that only time will fully normalize supply lines.

“At this point there's not much that the federal government can do to what can accurately be described as a behavioral shock,” he said.

Here’s what you need to know about the supply chain challenges.

New habits die hard

Many economists believed the burst of inflation seen earlier in the year would quickly fade as supply chains kicked back into gear and workers came back into the labor force with the pandemic well under control. But as the delta variant caused a global resurgence in COVID-19 cases, supply chains buckled again while demand chugged along.

Brusuelas said that COVID-19 outbreaks in Northeast and Southeast Asian shipping and manufacturing hubs caused shutdowns similar to those during the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. Declines in energy production, as well as port and factory closures driven by surging cases, have severely limited the ability to meet recent demand.

“The issues around the supply chains are not driven exclusively by consumption, but rather by ports that are not open 24 hours a day, a lack of labor specifically within the trucking industry, to move goods from ports to warehouses to stores, and the lack of labor and the warehouses themselves, which are also not open 24 hours a day,” Brusuelas said.

Meanwhile, US consumers have continued to spend, but not evenly across the economy.

While online stores, mega-retailers and furniture sales have benefited from the delta-driven shift, surging cases made it difficult for nearly every industry to hire enough workers to handle rising demand.

Employment growth fell from nearly one million jobs in July to 366,000 in August and 194,000 in September, leaving businesses scrambling to fill more than 10 million vacant positions. Though, some economists expected the September lapse of federal unemployment benefits to fill the void, the recent jobs report confirmed the pandemic’s inherent curb on the economy.

“These are all COVID-restriction related or COVID-disruption related things, and until we let all of that work out, this is not going to go away,” said Norbert Michel, a vice president at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.

Holiday shopping season at risk

The persistent supply chain issues and worker shortages are not expected to be permanent features of the post-pandemic economy, but will likely take several months to fix. That means Americans can expect to pay more for their holiday spreads and have trouble finding certain gifts in time for December celebrations.

“I know you’re hearing a lot about something called supply chains and how hard it is to get a range of things from a toaster to sneakers to bicycles to bedroom furniture,” Biden said in remarks Wednesday before meeting with business and labor leaders.

“With the holidays coming up, you might be wondering if gifts you planned to buy will arrive on time,” he said.

Analysts have stressed for months that Americans should knock off their shopping lists quickly to ensure gifts will arrive by the middle of December — and expect to pay more for them.

Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers, said some companies have even purchased their own ships or flown in components of products to avert port backlogs and a lack of container space.

“All of that leads to higher prices. Much of that can be passed on to the consumer, but the overall cost of production here is going up pretty phenomenally, largely because of all the extra costs related to shipping but also to being able to navigate some of these supply chain issues,” Moutray said.

Food producers and suppliers have also boosted prices as they struggle to work through a range of obstacles, including processing plant closures, trucking shortages and volatility within the restaurant and bar sector.

The consumer price index (CPI) for food rose 0.9 percent in September, making up more than one-fourth of the total monthly increase in inflation. The index for food at home rose 1.2 percent last month as prices for basic staples rose sharply.

Meat, poultry and fish prices rose 2.2 percent in September, with beef, bacon, ham and fresh fish rising by more than 2 percent each.

“Sometimes it's a processing issue, sometimes it's a labor issue, sometimes it's an import issue — it's a variety of things as we sort of recover from the pandemic and the shock that it provided globally to the food system,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack in a Tuesday interview with WAMU, the NPR affiliate in Washington, DC.

“People were a little bit surprised at some of the increases that they saw,” he continued. “I think we're going to see a moderation of that, which is good. And from time to time there may be a shortage here or there, but I don't think people can be prevented from being able to feed their families nutritious food.”

Few easy fixes

Just hours before the release of the September inflation data, the White House announced that Walmart, FedEx and UPS will increase operations to 24 hours a day, seven days a week to keep goods moving. The administration also said the Port of Los Angeles will adopt a similar schedule and that labor leaders are willing to make sure enough workers are on the job to handle the load.

Business groups are urging Congress to provide more funding for job training programs and allow for more temporary visas to fill vacant trucking jobs and other open positions. One of the best ways to make that happen, they argue, is through the US$ one trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that would establish an advisory board to encourage women to enter the trucking industry and set up an apprenticeship program for truck drivers under the age of 21, in addition to revamping roads and bridges.

Others have called on Biden to activate the National Guard to help alleviate supply chain congestion and incentivize states to use the Guard or open up US Navy ports to help unload cargo.

Even so, economists and business groups say it could take several months to see an impact on prices and shipping times as the country adjusts to life amid the evolving pandemic.

“Individuals are reassessing their professional careers and their lives following what is a shock that is equal to global wars or depressions that we all know from history,” Brusuelas said.

“Until we achieve a level of confidence within the public that they can go back to work, that they can go back to the stores, that they can attend social events without the risk of contracting disease, we're just going to be in this strange nether world where we're short of workers.”

What is Hezbollah’s role in mounting tension in Lebanon

Tension has spiked in Lebanon as Justice Tarek Bitar, who is leading the investigation into the 2020 Beirut Port blast, issues charges and warrants against a number of high-ranking officials, including Hezbollah allies. It is necessary to understand what the Israeli and western media is saying 

Bitar is the second judge to run the judicial investigation into the explosion, in which more than 200 people were killed and thousands wounded after a large amount of ammonium nitrate improperly stored at the port caught fire and detonated in one of the largest nonnuclear explosions in human history.

The first judge, Fadi Sawan, was removed from the case on charges of “legitimate suspicion” over his neutrality, due to the fact his home was damaged in the blast. Sawan was removed after a request from two of the officials he charged, MP Ali Hassan Khalil and MP Ghazi Zaiter, both Hezbollah allies.

Bitar followed in Sawan’s footsteps and issued charges against a number of officials, including Khalil, Zaiter, former public works minister Youssef Fenianos, and former prime minister Hassan Diab, among others. Most have refused to show up for questioning.

The case has already been suspended three times under Bitar due to allegations of bias filed by the charged officials, with the latest suspension coming on Tuesday.

In order to understand why Hezbollah may be hesitant for an investigation to progress, it’s important to understand the background of the explosion itself.

The ammonium nitrate in question was carried by the Rhosus, whose declared destination was Mozambique. Investigative journalist Feras Hatoum found the ship was owned by a shell company linked to Syrian-Russian businessmen sanctioned by the US for acting on behalf of the Syrian government. At least until shortly before it arrived in Beirut, the ship was owned by an individual linked to a bank accused of dealing with Hezbollah and the Syrian government.

When the ship arrived, it was deemed at risk of sinking, and the chemicals were removed and stored at the port in an unsafe way.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) found that multiple Lebanese officials were, at minimum, criminally negligent in their handling of the weapons-grade ammonium nitrate. The report found some officials foresaw the deadly risks and accepted them. Officials also repeatedly failed to accurately disclose the dangers posed by the chemicals.

The HRW report listed officials who were aware of the dangers, including President Michel Aoun, Diab and Khalil. The report additionally mentioned that at least four people who had knowledge about the chemicals or the explosion have died in suspicious circumstances.

An FBI probe found the amount of ammonium nitrate that exploded at the port was only a fifth of the amount that arrived on the Rhosus, raising questions of where the rest had gone.

The links of the possible owners of the Rhosus to Hezbollah and the fact the chemicals were weapons grade and had largely been siphoned away from the port by the time of the explosion, among other factors, caused HRW and many others in Lebanon and around the world to question whether the chemicals were actually meant for Mozambique, or had been meant to arrive in Lebanon all along.

Hezbollah also has a strong hold over Lebanon’s ports, with many relevant officials coming from either Hezbollah or its allies. Even if the movement did not purposefully import the ammonium nitrate, it or its allies may still be found responsible for the explosion due to negligence.

These details may be behind the decision to charge the Hezbollah-affiliated officials, although at least one Hezbollah opponent has been charged as well.

Hezbollah has expressed outrage at the charges and is demanding Bitar be removed. Recently, rhetoric against Bitar has escalated, with Hezbollah members and allies threatening to leave the government and even use force to get Bitar off the case.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah attacked Bitar on Monday, saying the judge is using the case for political goals and does not want to reach the truth about the explosion. Nasrallah also questioned why Bitar questioned only certain ministers and not others.

Hezbollah security official Wafiq Safa reportedly threatened Bitar in September, saying the movement would remove Bitar by force if the judge displeases them.

“We have had enough of you. We will go to the end of the legal path, and if that does not work, we will remove you by force,” said Safa to Bitar, according to Edmond Sassine, a journalist with Lebanon’s LBCI news.

Safa was sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2019 for exploiting Lebanon’s ports and borders to smuggle illegal drugs and weapons into Beirut and facilitate travel on behalf of Hezbollah.

Khalil told the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen TV on Tuesday that Bitar’s investigation “is unlawful and surpasses many of the protocols that must be followed.” The MP additionally claimed that the judge had met with a foreign delegation minutes after issuing the arrest warrant for Khalil, implying influence by foreign powers.

The MP warned there would be a “political escalation, and perhaps [an escalation] of another kind,” adding that “all possibilities are open,” including taking to the streets.

Khalil claimed the investigation may be part of a regional and internal plan to try to “change balances,” and that he had information that indicates that the investigation has a goal for a certain political group “at the behest of external parties.” On Wednesday, Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah-affiliated MP, outright accused the US of interfering in the investigation.

The secretary-general of the Lebanese Parliament announced on Wednesday that all the measures taken by Bitar against presidents, ministers and deputies were considered an infringement of powers.

Sources from Hezbollah and the Marada movement told the Lebanese Al-Jadeed TV news that Bitar was preparing to accuse Hezbollah directly of responsibility for the explosion. The sources added that if Bitar is not removed, they will leave the government.

Hezbollah’s fight against Bitar may impact its relationship with Aoun as well, with Al-Jadeed reporting Aoun stormed out of a meeting on Tuesday, expressing anger at Hezbollah’s threats of force. Aoun reportedly has insisted on a separation of powers and refused to interfere in the judiciary.

The head of Lebanon’s Kataeb Party, Sami Gemayel, on Wednesday asked the government of Lebanon not to “bow to Hezbollah’s intimidation.”

Samir Gaegea, a Christian opponent of Hezbollah, called on the “free people of Lebanon” to prepare for a peaceful general strike if Bitar’s opponents attempt to impose their will by force. While Gaegea stressed his statement was not a threat, he added he would never accept a “certain reality” being imposed by force.

The families of the blast victims warned against replacing or intimidating Bitar, “no matter how high the threat level,” telling officials to “keep their hands off the judiciary.”

Former MP Mustapha Allouch warned on Wednesday, in an interview with Voice of Lebanon that an international investigation is needed, and that the current situation is repeating the situation of the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, as Hezbollah feels the threads of the investigation pointing at it.

All of these factors are leading to concerns that Lebanon’s newly formed government may already be on the brink of collapse, which would leave the country leaderless yet again as it deals with an ongoing economic crisis.

Concerns are rising that the tensions could explode into violence, especially if Hezbollah continues to obstruct the investigation or tries to use force to remove Bitar.

Lebanon is set to hold elections in the spring, although there are concerns they could be delayed. The elections will pose yet another test for the country in crisis, as it will face the opportunity to elect new leaders.

Lebanon will also be faced with the challenge of keeping the elections safe and unaffected by corruption amid an increasingly charged environment that will likely only get tenser as elections near.

Firefight racks Beirut after Hezbollah demonstration attacked

Gunmen opened fire on a Hezbollah-organized demonstration on Thursday in the Lebanese capital killing at least six people and raising the specter of renewed violence and revenge attacks across the city. 

The brazen assault on Lebanon’s most powerful party, both militarily and politically, represented a dangerous escalation in a country that has been teetering on the edge of collapse for the past year.

Hezbollah, which held the demonstration to call for the removal of the judge investigating a blast that tore through Beirut last year, has accused the rival Lebanese Forces, a right-wing Christian movement, for the attack, setting up a showdown between the two heavily armed groups.

Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement said its supporters “faced an armed aggression by groups from the Lebanese Forces party which had spread out in nearby neighborhoods and on building rooftops, and started its direct sniping operations to purposefully kill.”

After hours of shooting and rocket propelled grenades, which spread from the Tayyooneh roundabout — a fault line during the civil war decades ago — to several other parts of the city, the normally traffic-choked streets were eerily quiet, save for the distant sound of ambulances.

The Red Cross, which sent teams to the scene, said six people were killed and more than 30 wounded. It was the fiercest clash in the city since 2008, when tensions between the US-backed government and Hezbollah escalated into pitched street battles in which dozens died.

While the Lebanese Forces did not claim the attack, Imad Wakim, a lawmaker for the group, said in a tweet that the confrontation is not between parties or sects but “between Hezbollah and what is left of free Lebanese from all sects, preserving what has remained of government institutions.”

Schools were evacuated as panicked parents flocked to pick up their children. Local media reported that residents on buildings’ higher floors were descending to avoid gunshots targeting the snipers believed to be on the rooftops. Many families were evacuated from buildings in the area by the army and the Lebanese Red Cross. 

The demonstration had been originally to protest Judge Tarek Bitar after Lebanon’s highest court rejected a petition to replace him. He is the second judge to lead the investigation in the face of formidable opposition by various political parties in Lebanon, including Hezbollah.

In its joint statement, Hezbollah and Amal called on authorities to “arrest those who caused the killing operations whose names are known, and the aggressors who ran this purposeful operation from black rooms.”

During a news conference from the airport, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland expressed condolences for the day’s events, and said of the blast investigation that “terrorists and thieves have robbed (the Lebanese) of hope for far too long.”

She announced a US$67 million aid for the army, which has been struggling to weather the economic crisis that has ravaged Lebanon in the past two years.

Local television channels stressed a need for de-escalation to avoid a repetition of the civil war that destroyed much of the country between 1975 and 1990. Residential streets and the area around the Palace of Justice, where the protest was based, were stained with blood and littered with shell casings and shattered glass.

Calls for vengeance filled the air at al-Sahel hospital, just 10 minutes from the heart of the clashes, and the air was heavy with anger. Tall bearded men in baseball caps and with Kalashnikov assault rifles slung across their bodies cried freely outside the ER, clutching each other’s shoulders. Many yelled about fighting back.

Lebanon’s politics is characterized by a tense power sharing agreement between its many communities that has left decision-making deadlocked while the economy and basic infrastructure has gradually deteriorated.

The system has also meant that any serious investigations, such as the one into the August 4, 2020, blast, which killed more than 200 people and devastated large portions of the capital, tend to go nowhere if they threatens the powers that be.

Bitar is the second judge assigned to the probe. Throughout his investigation, the first judge, Fadi Sawan, had focused on a question that has gripped much of Lebanon: Who was responsible for allowing 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate to be stored haphazardly in a warehouse, alongside fireworks and paint thinners, on the edge of a crowded city?

After trying to interrogate powerful former ministers and political leaders, Sawan was removed and replaced by Bitar. But he also struggled to break through Lebanon’s culture of corruption and political influence that prevented the law from holding anyone of consequence accountable.

Government documents reviewed by The Post earlier this year showed that officials were well aware of the dangers posed by the large chemical stockpile long before last year. The documents revealed that responsibility for the ammonium nitrate was for years passed among different public and private entities, including the Ministry of Public Works and Transport, the judiciary, the army and even a private explosives company.

Bitar faced backlash after he issued an arrest warrant Tuesday for Amal movement member and former finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil. In an interview the same day, Khalil said, “I am proud to be part of a political movement, that I am a soldier in the Amal movement.”

A cabinet meeting was canceled Wednesday after Hezbollah demanded urgent government action against the judge. A Hezbollah-allied minister threatened that he and other cabinet members would stage a walkout if Bitar was not removed. Thursday’s protest was part of the party’s pressure campaign against the judge.

Cyclone closes one of the world’s busiest ports

The number of vessels waiting to enter one of the world's busiest ports has jumped to the most since August this, threatening to further snarl global supply chains strained by a surge in consumer demand for everything from cars to computers.

China's Yantian port in Shenzhen suspended pickup and drop-off of containers as tropical cyclone Kompasu approached the nation's southern coastline. The number of ships waiting outside the port rose to 67, the most since August 26, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg.

Located near China's tech capital of Shenzhen and the manufacturing belt of the Pearl River Delta, Yantian is one of the world's busiest ports, with a cargo throughput of 13.34 million twenty-foot equivalent units in 2020, according to figures from the Shenzhen Transportation Bureau. It typically serves about 100 ships a week.

Kompasu is the second tropical storm to affect southern China in the last few days, after Lionrock brought flooding to some low-lying areas of Hong Kong over the weekend. The damage from Kompasu could be more severe based on its current track and intensity forecasts, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Lam wrote in a note on Monday, October 11, 2021.

Bottlenecks at container terminals around the world have added to pressure on supply chains already struggling to keep up with demand. Covid-19 outbreaks at ports, along with shortages in shipping containers and labour have exacerbated the problem, with China - the world's biggest manufacturer - seeing a number of port disruptions this year.

The country has a zero-tolerance approach to the coronavirus, and has shut down port operations on single cases in the past. An outbreak at Yantian in June this year saw it closed, resulting in falling volumes as far away as the Port of Los Angeles. The Ningbo-Zhoushan port shut for two weeks in August because of a Delta variant infection.

Weather has also played havoc, with Shanghai's container port, the world's biggest, halting some operations last month amid a typhoon.

 

United States annoyed at growing Chinese investment in Israel

Reportedly, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to warn Israel against continued Chinese investments in the country's infrastructure and hi-tech industry when he meets Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in Washington on Wednesday.

"We will be candid with our Israeli friends over risks to our shared national security interests that come with close cooperation with China," a senior State Department official told reporters during a briefing ahead of the meeting.

Blinken is also expected to meet Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan on Wednesday.

The US has been concerned about the UAE's use of Chinese Huawei Technologies in its communication system in light of its pending sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets to the Emirates, but when speaking of China it focused only on its concern with Israel.

The highlight of the day is expected to be a trilateral meeting Blinken will host with the two foreign ministers that is designed to highlight the success of the Abraham Accords, brokered by the former administration.

The accords allowed Israel to normalize ties with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan last year, of which ties with the Emirates are the most advanced.

At the trilateral, Israel and the UAE are expected to announce two new working groups, one on religious coexistence and another that would focus on water and energy.

But the range of the topics that will be brought up in all meetings are fairly wide and include China, Iran, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Lapid, in his public comments in Washington on Tuesday focused on the strong US-Israel bilateral ties and the special relationship Israel has with America and the Biden administration.

Though, US officials echoed those same sentiments at the briefing, they also discussed topics of discord in the relationship.

Biden administration officials had spoken about China with National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata when he was in Washington earlier this month.

But State Department senior officials remained vague on Tuesday with respect to their specific concerns on China.

"The US views China as a competitor that challenges the existing international rules-based order; our relationship with China will be competitive when it should be," the official stated.

On Iran, a senior State Department official said that Washington's main objective at this time is the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known as the Iran deal, which Israel has traditionally opposed. 

Both the US and Israel are joined in their opposition to a nuclear Iran but have differed about how best to achieve that objective.

Lapid said on Tuesday that Iran was one of the major focal points of his Washington trip.

On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the senior State Department officials said that at Wednesday's meetings, Blinken will "reaffirm our belief" in the benefits of a two-state solution. He will also express his appreciation for "Minister Lapid's recent, strong statement condemning settler violence in the West Bank."

The Israeli government is split on how best to approach the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett opposing a two-state resolution to the conflict while Lapid has supported it.

But Lapid's visions of the borders of those two states differ from those envisioned by the Biden administration, which has not advanced a peace process. The senior State Department officials did not mention any movement on that front, except for stating that "we seek to advance it when we can, as best as we can."

An official said that the accords are not a substitute for the two-state solutions and suggested that these could be used to push for progress toward a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

"We hope that normalization can be leveraged to advance progress on the Israeli-Palestinian track," the official said.

An official also spoke of the Biden administration's commitment to maintaining Israel's qualitative edge and its support for supplemental funding for the defensive Iron Dome system it provides Israel to protect Israeli citizens against Hamas rockets.

The officials repeated their opposition to Israeli settlement activity and the Palestinian Authority's monthly stipends to terrorists and their families.   

Separately, during Lapid's trip, Foreign Ministry Director-General Alon Ushpiz will meet with Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.

Challenges facing US Defense Strategy

The Pentagon has begun the process of developing a strategy to meet the congressional requirement for a National Defense Strategy (NDS) report in 2022. The defense strategy is likely to expand upon the 2018 strategy, which identified China and Russia as peer competitors and assigned highest priority to deterring adventurism on the part of both states. 

China’s increasingly aggressive stance against Taiwan — notably, its recent four-day surge of nearly 150 combat aircraft into the island’s air defense identification zone, as well as the expansion of its conventional and strategic nuclear forces — underscores the ongoing need for maintaining a credible deterrent against Beijing. Similarly, Russia’s continuing pressure on Ukraine, its ceaseless efforts to employ cyber to disrupt American political and economic activity, and its military modernization programs justify the priority that the 2022 NDS, like its immediate predecessor, is likely to assign to deterring Moscow’s aggressiveness.

China and Russia do not constitute the entirety of American security concerns, even if they represent the most demanding threats that American forces might have to confront. North Korea is a rogue nuclear power that can threaten its neighbors and the American homeland. Iran is poised to develop its own nuclear capability while continuing its disruptive efforts throughout the Middle East and its own efforts to fight the West in cyberspace. Washington may wish to ratchet down its Middle East military profile, but unless Iran terminates its nuclear program and ceases to undermine the stability of regional states, American withdrawal from the region will be easier said than done.  

While American forces may have departed from Afghanistan, there is little indication that Taliban government will do anything to prevent terrorists from once again using that country as a base for attacks on Western, and especially American, targets and persons. If dealing with these challenges were not enough, the Biden administration has added both climate change and fighting pandemics as two additional threats that the Department of Defense (DOD), like the government as a whole, must face for the foreseeable future.

Strategies represent the employment of means to stated ends. Yet the administration’s future budgets, which would provide the financial sources to acquire means for coping with the array of challenges that it has identified, are unlikely to grow much beyond that which it proposed for fiscal year 2022. That budget calls for a small decline in real terms over the previous year’s budget. Indeed, even if congressional appropriations would increase FY 2022 spending levels by some $24 billion, there is no indication that the Biden administration would maintain the trajectory of that increase over the next several budget years.

In light of the administration’s reluctance to increase defense spending to any significant degree — which itself is rather puzzling given its willingness to spend trillions of dollars on domestic progress — one might have expected it to mandate a cutback in the forces and capabilities that currently are targeted against the lower priority but still potent threats that it has identified. This does not appear to be the case. The FY 2022 budget and the proposed congressional adds-ons both continue to preserve far too many of what have come to be called “legacy programs” — that is, weapons systems whose utility was greatest over the past two decades, but whose value in confronting the challenges posed by China, in particular, is questionable at best. 

Future budget requests, and likely congressional appropriations, no doubt will incorporate many cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence and systems that incorporate machine learning. Nevertheless, the expansion of these and other capabilities to meet future threats will be constrained not only by relatively flat top-line budgets but by ongoing, real-cost growth for both military personnel and operations and maintenance. The combined squeeze on defense modernization would render it highly unlikely that Washington credibly could deter China and Russia simultaneously, or indeed, any combination of the threats it might face. 

If Biden administration remains determined to put a cap on defense spending, yet wishes to pursue all of its priorities while minimizing to the degree possible the risk to meeting its security objectives, it will have to take far more seriously the need for allies and partners. With few notable exceptions such as the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan, Washington has not done enough to convince its other allies and partners that their economic interests — especially involving China and Russia — simply do not outweigh the threats that these states pose to their security.   

Part of its problem is that, in the past, Washington often did little more than pay lip service to the importance of allied contributions to the defense of common interests. The time has come to take allies and partners far more seriously, to expand its reliance on their military capabilities, to be more open to sharing technological breakthroughs, and indeed, to improve the balance of military trade that currently overwhelmingly favors the United States. Without its allies and partners, America no longer can be certain that it would prevail in a future conflict — especially if, as may well be the case, it will simultaneously have to face more than one adversary in more than one theater.