Will Saudi Arabia quit Yemen war?

Reportedly, Biden administration has ramped up pressure on Saudi Arabia to bring war in Yemen to end and the Kingdom has reluctantly accepted to go along with the US initiative. In his early days as President of United States, Joe Biden sent a clear message to Saudi Arabia that the days of Washington giving unwavering support for Saudi military operations in Yemen are over. 

This war has to end. And to underscore our commitment, we’re ending all American support for offensive operations in Yemen, including arm sales, said Biden in a recent speech at the State Department.

Not only Biden administration removed Yemen’s Ansarullah movement from the US government’s list of foreign terrorist organizations, Veteran diplomat, Timothy Lenderking has been appointed the US special envoy for Yemen.

The US approach towards Yemen changed after the new administration realized that Saudi Arabia can never win this war and there is an urgent need to offer the Monarchy a face-saving. 

Saudis don’t seem to agree with the US proposal. They still insist on excluding the Ansarallah movement and returning the obsolete, self-proclaimed government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, who resigned in 2015 and left Yemen open for foreign intervention. 

Saudi intervention in Yemen was aimed at achieving one goal, eliminating Ansarallah and Sanaa-based government. To justify its assault on Yemen, Saudi Arabia claimed that Ansarallah is backed by Iran and that the war on Yemen was primarily focused on eliminating foreign influence in the country.

Saudis and their allies besieged Yemen and prevented free coming and going to Yemen. Despite the blockade, the Saudis failed to defeat the Sanaa government; which now seems to be stronger than ever given its recent attacks on several strategic targets deep inside Saudi Arabia.

An official spokesman at the ministry told Saudi Press Agency on Sunday that one of the petroleum tank farms at the Ras Tanura Port in the Eastern Region, one of the largest oil shipping ports in the world, was attacked by a drone.

The official added that another deliberate attempt was made to hit Saudi Aramco’s facilities. The spokesman said a ballistic missile fell near Saudi Aramco’s area in the city of Dhahran. The spokesman said that both attacks did not result in any injury or loss of life or property.

The Yemeni forces claimed responsibility for the attacks on Aramco facilities. They said the attack came in response to ongoing aggression and siege against Yemen. 

The latest attacks indicated that Saudi Arabia has not only unsuccessful in defeating Yemeni forces, but it also failed in protecting itself from Yemen’s retaliatory strikes.

Instead of ending the war in Yemen, Saudis continue to level accusations on Iran, claiming that the missile and drones used by the Yemeni forces to target Saudi Arabia’s oil port and facilities were supplied by Iran. 

Saudi Arabia can quit war by ending its military operations and leaving Yemeni factions to pursue a political solution at their own. Saudis have failed in finding ways out of the Yemen crisis. Now that the US is negotiating for an end to Yemen war, Saudis should put an end to this unwinnable war. 

If Saudis continue the war, they may lose not only the war, but also their credibility. Saudis may not like the US plan, but the effort may prove a blessing in disguise.

What United States loves the most? Saudi Crown Prince or US$134 billion arms sale

At present, the United States and Saudi Arabia are experiencing a new era in their 76-year relationships. The priorities have changed after the release of the CIA findings. The report says Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had ‘approved’ the 2018 murder of prominent Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi.

Historically, an American president has never cut off personal links to the Saudi heir apparent, who has often served as de facto ruler of the kingdom. But the White House declared his intention to make that very heir a ‘pariah’ in Washington and internationally as well.

The State Department has also set a new precedent by issuing visa restrictions on 76 Saudis believed to have been engaged in threatening dissidents overseas’ under a new ‘Khashoggi ban’ created in memory of the Saudi journalist murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018.

MBS has been deliberately spared from the Khashoggi ban, or any other sanction, to preserve a minimum communication and cooperation between the two governments. Former Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Turki al-Faisal noted, MBS is destined to live under a lifetime ‘stigma’ for his role in the affair. He is unlikely to be invited to the White House for years to come.     

Biden has said that from now on, he will only talk to King Salman, Mohammed’s father and the American President’s official counterpart. But the king is 85 years old and in failing health. When he dies, would Biden refuse to communicate with the kingdom’s new monarch? It will be an unprecedented situation in the history of US-Saudi relations dating back to World War II.

In the past, the personal relationship between the US President and reigning Saudi monarch has been a key determinant in setting both the tone and substance of ties between the two countries. At this point, the only senior US official authorized to talk to Crown Prince Mohammed, who is also minister of defense, is his counterpart, Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin III.

What impact the new Biden doctrine toward the crown prince will have on the overall US-Saudi relationship remains to be seen? It seems likely that the relationship will be reduced mostly to formal state-to-state transactions and to avoid an open break which neither side wants.

It is believed that the focal point of the relationship will remain the massive US arms sales to the Saudi kingdom and covert cooperation in demolishing Iran. Since 2010, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency has notified Congress of US$134 billion arms sales to Saudi Arabia, which has been the most important foreign market for the American defense industry for decades.

The Biden administration has reiterated its commitment to defending Saudi Arabia from foreign aggression and will continue to provide ‘defensive’ arms. However, it has already announced the suspension of ‘offensive’ weapons being used against Houthi rebels, who have seized control of most of Yemen. Forthcoming arms sales to the Kingdom are now under review, presumably to determine which are defensive and which are offensive.

Other than MBS, the most divisive and immediate issue in US-Saudi relations is how to deal with Iran, the kingdom’s arch rival for regional primacy. Iran has proven itself to be the most serious military threat after demonstrating its ability to amass drones and cruise missiles to knock out nearly half of the kingdom’s oil production for several weeks in September 2019.

Biden has begun charting a diplomacy initiative to entice Iran back into the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Acton (JCPOA). This will certainly lead to even more discord in the fraught US-Saudi relationship. The two countries no longer see the personal ties bonding US and Saudi leaders had enjoyed in the past.

Resolution against Iran at IAEA will disrupt the situation, says Zarif

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iranian Foreign Minister, on Monday warned the three European parties to the 2015 nuclear deal that a resolution against Iran by the IAEA Board of Governors would disrupt the current conditions, reports Tasnim news agency.

Speaking to reporters after a meeting with members of the Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Zarif warned of agitation in case the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board issues a statement against Iran over its decision to suspend the voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol of the NPT.

“The Europeans (UK, France, and Germany) have begun a wrong move at the Board of Governors with the backing of the United States. We believe such an action would upset the conditions,” Zarif noted.

He also stressed that Iran’s ambassador to the Vienna-based international organizations has already warned the Board of Governors about the consequences of confusing the status quo.
 
“We hope wisdom would prevail, otherwise, we would have (other) approaches,” Zarif warned.

Speaking at the parliamentary meeting, Zarif also said the US has no right to return to the JCPOA – the official name for the 2105 nuclear deal- until it recommits itself to its obligations.

In accordance with the Iranian Parliament’s legislation on lifting sanctions, Iran has halted the voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol because the signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal have failed to fulfill their commitments.

Following last week’s visit to Tehran by the IAEA Director General, Tehran and the UN nuclear watchdog issued a joint statement, declaring that Iran will stop its voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol and will deny IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear facilities beyond the Safeguards Agreement as of 23rd February 2021, for three months.

According to Reuters, Britain, France and Germany have draft a US-backed resolution at the IAEA’s Board to criticize Iran for limiting cooperation with the Agency, despite Russian and Iranian warnings of serious consequences,.

The IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors is holding a quarterly meeting this week against the backdrop of faltering efforts to revive Iran’s nuclear deal with major powers now that US President Joe Biden is in office.

Iran scaled back its cooperation with the IAEA last week, ending extra inspection and monitoring measures introduced under the deal, including the power given to the IAEA to carry out snap inspections at facilities that have not been declared to be related to nuclear energy. Tehran’s move is a response to the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018 and the re-imposition of sanctions that had been lifted under it.

The European trio (E3), all parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, circulated a draft resolution for the Vienna meeting voicing “serious concern” at Iran’s reduction of transparency and urging Iran to reverse its steps.

Iran has warned to cancel a deal struck a week ago with the IAEA to temporarily continue many of the monitoring measures it had decided to end - a black box type arrangement valid for up to three months and aimed at creating a window for diplomacy.

Iran said on Sunday it would not take up a proposal by European Union Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borrell to hold an informal meeting with the United States.

It is unclear how many countries would support a resolution. Moreover, Russia warned that a resolution could hurt efforts to revive the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and that it would oppose it.
 
“Adoption of the resolution will not help the political process of returning to the normal comprehensive implementation of the JCPOA,” Russia’s note to other member states said.

“On the contrary it will hugely complicate those efforts undermining the prospects for the restoration of the JCPOA and for normal cooperation between Iran and the Agency,” it added. 

WTO appoints first woman and African head

Nigerian economist, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has been appointed to head World Trade Organization (WTO), becoming the first woman and first African to take on the role amid rising protectionism and disagreement over how the body decides cases involving billions in sales and thousands of jobs.

Ms Okonjo-Iweala, 66, was named Director General by representatives of the 164 countries that make up the WTO, which deals with the rules of trade between nations based on negotiated agreements.

She said during an online news conference that she was taking over at a time when the WTO was "facing so many challenges".

"It's clear to me that deep and wide-ranging reforms are needed … it cannot be business as usual," she said.

Her first priority will be quickly addressing the economic and health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Strategies may include lifting export restrictions on supplies and vaccines, and encouraging the manufacturing of vaccines in more countries.

Other big tasks include reforming the organization’s dispute resolution process and finding ways for trade rules to deal with change like digitalization and e-commerce.

She takes over after four turbulent years in which former United States president Donald Trump used new tariffs, or import taxes, against China and the European Union to push his America-first trade agenda.

"It will not be easy because we also have the issue of lack of trust among members which has built up over time, not just among the US and China and the US and the EU … but also between developing and developed country members and we need to work through that," she said.

I absolutely do feel an additional burden, I can't lie about that ‑ being the first woman and the first African means that one really has to perform.

"All credit to members for electing me and making that history, but the bottom line is that if I want to really make Africa and women proud I have to produce results, and that's where my mind is at now."

The appointment, which takes effect on 1st March 2021, came after United States President Joe Biden endorsed her candidacy, which had been blocked by Trump.

Biden's move was a step toward his aim of supporting cooperative approaches to international problems after Trump's go-it-alone approach that launched multiple trade disputes.

But unblocking the appointment is only the start in dealing with US concerns about the WTO that date back to the Obama administration.

The US had blocked the appointment of new judges to the WTO's appellate body, essentially freezing its ability to resolve extended and complex trade disputes.

The US Government has argued the trade organization is slow-moving and bureaucratic, ill-equipped to handle problems posed by China's state-dominated economy, and unduly restrictive on US attempts to impose sanctions on countries that unfairly subsidies their companies or export at unusually low prices.

Chad P. Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said unblocking Ms Okonjo-Iweala's appointment was "a very good first step" in re-engaging with the WTO.

In particular, the WTO faces "a ticking time-bomb" in the form of other countries' challenges to Trump's use of national security as a justification for imposing tariffs, a little-used provision in US law rejected by key US trading partners in Europe.

Ms Okonjo-Iweala has been Nigeria's finance minister and, briefly, foreign minister, and had a 25-year career at the World Bank as an advocate for economic growth and development in poorer countries.

She rose to the number two position of Managing Director, where she oversaw US$104.1 billion in development finance in Africa, South and Central Asia, and Europe.

In 2012 she made an unsuccessful bid for the top post with the backing of African and other developing countries, challenging the traditional practice that the World Bank is always headed by an American.

She has a bachelor's degree in economics from Harvard University and a PhD in regional economics and development from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee withdrew her candidacy, leaving Ms Okonjo-Iweala as the only choice.

Her predecessor, Roberto Azevedo, stepped down on 31st August 2020, a year before his term expired.

Netanyahu first leader in Middle East to get a call from Biden

US President, Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on phone; nearly a month after Biden assumed the charge. Netanyahu was the first leader in the Middle East to get a call from Biden. The conversation lasted for nearly an hour. 

The two leaders noted their personal ties of many years and said they will work together to continue bolstering the strong alliance between Israel and the US.

The leaders agreed to continue a dialogue between them to promote peace agreements between Israel and states in the region, the Iranian threat and regional challenges.

Biden congratulated Netanyahu for his leadership in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and they exchanged opinions on the matter.

Biden affirmed his personal history of steadfast commitment to Israel's security in call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Biden emphasized US support for recent normalization of relations between Israel and countries in the Arab and Muslim word and underscored importance of working to advance peace throughout the region, including between Israelis and Palestinians.

“It was a good conversation,” Biden later told reporters in the Oval Office, where he was meeting US labor leaders.

The phone call came a day before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to hold a video conference with his counterparts in UK, France and Germany that are party to the 2015 Iran deal. The meeting comes after Tehran announced it would not allow snap inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency if the US does not lift sanctions imposed since 2018 by February 21.

The Biden administration seeks to rejoin the nuclear deal, which former US president Donald Trump left in 2018, as long as Tehran returns to full compliance with its limitations.

Israel is opposed to the deal, which would eventually permit Iran to enrich high levels of uranium that could lead to the development of a nuclear weapon. In recent weeks, Iran has begun enriching uranium to 20%, far beyond the limitations of the 2015 deal, and developing uranium metal.

The delay in Biden’s call sparked speculation that the president was distancing himself from Netanyahu, possibly in light of the prime minister’s tense relationship with former US President Barack Obama, under whom Biden was vice president, and his especially warm one with Trump, including after Biden won the 2020 election.

Netanyahu rejected those theories, most recently in an interview with Army Radio on Wednesday afternoon hours before the call, in which he said “Joe Biden is my personal friend for 40 years” and that he believes Biden will advance further peace agreements between Israel and Arab and Muslim states.

Blinken and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan each called their Israeli counterparts twice in recent weeks.

Advisers for some of Netanyahu’s political rivals said officials in the Biden administration told them they were maintaining the strong US-Israel relationship while relaying a message that there would be “no special relationship” between Netanyahu and Biden.

Israel not to engage with Biden on Iran nuclear strategy

Israel has openly declared, it would not engage with US President Joe Biden on strategy regarding the Iranian nuclear program, urged tougher sanctions and a credible military threat against Iran, its arch-enemy. 

"We will not be able to be part of such a process if the new administration returns to that deal," Ambassador to United States, Gilad Erdan told Israel's Army Radio.

The remarks by Israel's envoy to Washington came at a touchy juncture for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Up for re-election next month, he has revived his hard line on Iran, while not yet having any direct communication with Biden.

Joe Biden has expressed repeatedly, the US return to a 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran - which former President Donald Trump had quit, restoring sanctions - if the Iranians recommit to their own obligations. Washington has also said it wants to confer with allies in the Middle East about such moves.

"We will not be able to be part of such a process if the new administration returns to that deal," Ambassador Gilad Erdan told Israel's Army Radio.

Netanyahu aides have privately questioned whether engaging with US counterparts might backfire, for Israel, by falsely signaling its consent for any new deal that it still opposes.

Israel was not a party to the 2015 deal. It has powerful advocates within the US Congress. However, Netanyahu's threats to take unilateral military action on Iran if he deems diplomacy a dead end also figure into big-power planning.

"We think that if the United States returns to the same accord that it already withdrew from, all its leverage will be lost," Erdan said.

"It would appear that only crippling sanctions - keeping the current sanctions and even adding new sanctions - combined with a credible military threat - that Iran fears - might bring Iran to real negotiations with Western countries that might ultimately produce a deal truly capable of preventing it breaking ahead (to nuclear arms)."

The Biden administration has said it wants to strengthen and lengthen constraints on Iran, which denies seeking the bomb.

Joe Biden team dominated by Jews

US President Joe Biden has appointed a strong and experienced team, among them half of Jews, one wonders if there has ever been a more Jewish US administration. Here are the 15 Jews who comprise Biden’s team. It is believed that a vigorous American presence in world affairs, spearheaded by the Jewish team, is in Israel’s long-term interest, more than an ‘America first’ which makes the US largely irrelevant in global affairs.

• Antony Blinken, Secretary of State, is a veteran career diplomat. His stepfather, Samuel Pisar, was the only Holocaust survivor of some 900 children in his Polish school. He was rescued after fleeing from a Nazi death march and finding refuge in a US armed corps tank – an episode Blinken recounted movingly when Biden introduced him.

• David Cohen, Deputy CIA Director returns to this role after filling it from 2015 to 2017. Cohen is the son of a prominent Boston Jewish physician.

• Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury is the first woman to fill this role; previously, she headed the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. A 2016 Trump attack ad featured three Jews, including Yellen, and reflected anti-Semitic tropes. She is a renowned labor economist. 

• Merrick Garland, Attorney-General was blocked from becoming a Supreme Court Justice by then-Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, in the last year of the Obama presidency. After being nominated Garland spoke of his grandparents, who fled antisemitism in Europe and moved to the US.

• Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence was deputy director of the CIA under Obama, the first woman to hold this job. Her mother was a well-known Jewish painter, Adrian Rappin (Rappaport) and Haines identifies with Israel; she visited Israel with her non-Jewish father. 

• Ron Klain, Chief of Staff was also Biden’s chief of staff in his vice presidential days. Klain speaks of his childhood synagogue in Indianapolis, where he learned multiple Torah portions for his bar mitzvah, and of his commitment to raising Jewish children. 

• Eric Lander, Director, Office of Science & Technology Policy is a leading geneticist. His position has been elevated to Cabinet level. Lander has spoken of being the subject of antisemitic criticism by James Watson, discoverer of the DNA double helix. 

• Rachel Levine, Deputy Secretary, Health and Human Services grew up in a Conservative Jewish home in Massachusetts. She is the first open transgender person to be nominated for a position requiring Senate confirmation.

• Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of Homeland Security was the Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security under Obama. He was born in Cuba, to a Cuban Jewish father and Romanian Jewish mother who survived the Shoah. He has worked closely with Jewish groups in the past. 

• Anne Neuberger, Director of Cybersecurity, National Security Agency is an Orthodox Jew, from Brooklyn, educated through college in Orthodox schools. She helped establish the US Cyber Command and led security efforts in the 2018 midterm elections. Her grandparents are Holocaust survivors and her parents were among the passengers on the Air France flight in 1976, kidnapped to Uganda and rescued in Israel’s Entebbe operation. She founded Sister to Sister, an NGO that serves single mothers across the US.

• Wendy Sherman, Deputy Secretary of State was born in Maryland to a Jewish family. Her father served in the Marines. She is the first woman to be appointed Deputy Secretary of State. A career diplomat, she was the lead negotiator for the controversial Iran nuclear deal. 

• Jeff Zients, COVID-19 Coordinator was born in Washington, DC, and was raised in Kensington, Maryland. His family is Jewish. From 2014 through 2017 he was the director of the National Economic Council. He will fill the crucial role of directing and coordinating efforts to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Rochelle Walensky, Director, Center for Disease Control and her husband are members of Temple Emanuel, in Newton, Massachusetts, a prominent Conservative synagogue. She is an expert on AIDS and HIV and served as Chief of Infectious Diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital, and professor at Harvard Medical School.

• Jared Bernstein, member, Council of Economic Advisors was the chief economist and economic adviser to Biden under Obama. 

• Douglas Emhoff is husband of US Vice President Kamala Harris. He is the first-ever husband of a US Vice President to enjoy a key position. He was born in Brooklyn, son of Jewish parents Barbara and Michael Emhoff. He grew up in New Jersey. He is an entertainment lawyer and teaches at Georgetown University Law Center.

 

 

Macron seeks to add Israel and Saudi Arabia to negotiation with Iran

According to a Reuters report, French President Emmanuel Macron has praised decision of the United States to engage with Iran. He also suggested Saudi Arabia and Israel must ultimately be involved in the negotiation with Iran. 

Macron claimed it was time for a new negotiation because Iran was closer to a nuclear weapon.  He also said the international community has to deal with Iran’s missile program.

Speaking with the Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank in a video conference from Paris, Macron noted, “We do need to finalize, indeed, a new negotiation with Iran.”

“I will do whatever I can to support any initiative from the US side to reengage a ... dialogue and I will be here ... I was here, and available two years ago and one and a half (years) ago, to try to be an honest broker and a committed broker in this dialogue,” he added.

Iran has already objected to the inclusion of Saudi Arabia to the JCPOA let alone Israel which Iran does not recognize and that it opposes a nuclear weapons free zone in West Asia.

In remarks on Wednesday, President Hassan Rouhani said there will be no changes to the content of the JCPOA and that no other country will be added to it.

Rouhani was in fact responding to Saudi Arabia which has said if the new Biden administration plans to rejoin the JCPOA its country should also be included. French President Emmanuel Macron has also called for inclusion of Saudi Arabia in the agreement. 

Rouhani emphasized, “The undue words should not be said. We did a job resulted from hard work. It took more than ten years to gain the achievements (JCPOA). In the beginning of the eleventh government, we made efforts during the first two years” to reach the multilateral agreement. 

In 2018, former US President Donald Trump quitted the JCPOA, which was designed to restrict Iran’s peaceful program in return for the lifting of the US and other sanctions. His successor, President Joe Biden, has said that if Iran returns to “strict” compliance with the deal, the US will too.

The Trump administration restored the US sanctions that Obama removed in 2015. Trump and his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo perused a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran with the aim of strangulating the Iranian economy. 

Abolfazl Amouei, the spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has responded to a French call to include Saudi Arabia in any future talks with Iran about the nuclear issue by saying that there are no links between Riyadh and the issue.

“Saudi Arabia has nothing to do with the nuclear agreement,” Amouei told the Qatari-owned Al Arabi Al Jadid newspaper, declaring his country’s refusal to include Riyadh in any possible talks with the parties to the nuclear agreement reached with Iran in 2015.

He stressed, “The Islamic Republic will not negotiate again about this agreement.”

According to Amouei, Riyadh did not have a place in the nuclear negotiations and that it has nothing to do with the issues related to the nuclear agreement between Iran and major world powers, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Saeed Khatibzadeh, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, put out a statement dismissing the French president's recent remarks about the need for a new nuclear deal with Tehran. He called on Macron to “exercise self-restraint and refrain from hasty and ill-advised stances.”

“The JCPOA is a multilateral international agreement that has been endorsed and stabilized by the (UN) Security Council Resolution 2231. It is by no means re-negotiable, and its parties are also definite and unchangeable,” Khatibzadeh noted.

Pointing to the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and Europe’s failure to maintain it, the spokesman said, “If there is any willingness to revive and save the JCPOA, the solution is easy. The US should return to the JCPOA and lift the whole JCPOA and non-JCPOA sanctions that have been imposed (on Iran) during the tenure of the previous president of that country.”

Aviv Kochav, chief of staff of Israeli armed forces, has recently issued stark threats against Iran while railing against the nuclear deal.

He said that Israel is not welcoming the expected efforts by the US and its European allies to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. The top Israeli general claimed that he had ordered several plans to launch offensive operations against Iran while voicing Israel’s opposition to any efforts to revive the JCPOA or even to improve it.

“I have instructed the IDF to prepare several operational plans in addition to existing ones, which we will develop throughout the coming year. The power to initiate them lies with the political echelon. However, the offensive options need to be prepared, ready and on the table,” Kochavi said in remarks delivered at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies 14th Annual International Conference.

Robert Malley appointment as Iran envoy attracts mixed response

Joe Biden has named Robert Malley as special envoy for Iran. He was a key member of former President Barack Obama's team that negotiated the nuclear accord with Iran and world powers, an agreement that Donald Trump abandoned in 2018, despite strong opposition from Washington's European allies.

Malley’s appointment puts him at the forefront of Biden's efforts to find a way to deal with Iran after years of worsening relations under former President Donald Trump, who not only pulled out of a 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran, but also re-imposed crippling economic sanctions.

When Malley's name first surfaced in news reports as a leading candidate for the post, he drew criticism from some Republican lawmakers and pro-Israel groups who expressed concern that he would be soft on Iran and tough on Israel, but a number of foreign policy veterans rushed to his defense.

It's a positive sign from Biden that he's really willing to revitalize American diplomacy. For too long, US foreign policy has been militarily very muscular, but diplomatically very weak," Sina Toossi, a senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) told Middle East Eye.

Toossi said the humiliations that Iran had faced in recent years - including the US departure from the JCPOA, the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh - make it difficult for the Iranian government to take the first step towards reviving the JCPOA.

Matt Duss, a foreign-policy adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, lauded Biden for refusing to back down in the face of attacks against Malley's candidacy.

"Great news, there's no one better than Rob to make this policy succeed, which is why the hardliners didn't like the pick," Duss wrote on Twitter. "Also very good that Biden stood strong with this choice and disregarded their smear campaign. It won't be their last."

Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, also praised the announcement, calling the nomination "great news". "Malley is a highly skilled and thoughtful negotiator with extensive knowledge and an empathic disposition - literally the polar opposite of every member of the previous administration’s Middle East team of clowns," Elgindy said in a Twitter post.

Senator Tom Cotton, a staunch conservative, had led criticism against Malley, accusing him of being sympathetic to the Iranian government and having "animus towards Israel".

Malley is an American lawyer, political scientist and specialist in conflict resolution, who was the lead negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He being once again tasked to bring the United States and Iran into compliance with the Iran deal abandoned by President Trump.

Previously, Malley was President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, a Washington, DC, committed to preventing wars. Prior to holding that title, he served at the National Security Council under Barack Obama from February 2014 until January 2017.

In 2015, the Obama administration appointed Rob Malley as its "point man" on the Middle East, leading the Middle East desk of the National Security Council. In November 2015, Malley was named as President Obama's new special ISIS advisor.

Malley is considered, by some, to be an expert on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and has written extensively on this subject advocating rapprochement with Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood. As Special Assistant to President Clinton, he was a member of the US peace team and helped organize the 2000 Camp David Summit.

Malley was criticized by supporters of Israel after co-authoring an article in the July 8, 2001 edition of The New York Review of Books arguing that the blame for the failure of the 2000 Camp David Summit should be divided among all three leaders who were present at the summit, Arafat, Barak, and Bill Clinton, not just Arafat, as was suggested by some mainstream policy analysts. Later, other scholars and former officials voiced views similar to those of Malley.

Malley and his views have come under attack from other critics, such as Martin Peretz of the magazine The New Republic, who has opined that Malley is "anti-Israel", a "rabid hater of Israel. No question about it” and that several of his articles in the New York Review of Books were "deceitful."

On the conservative webzine The American Thinker, Ed Lasky asserted that Malley "represents the next generation of anti-Israel activism."

 

 

 

 

  

Are Israel-US relations turning bitter after Joe Biden becomes President?

Reportedly, Joe Biden, President of United States has not called Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel as of Sunday; 11 days into his presidency.  Biden has called the leaders of Canada, Mexico, the UK, France, Germany, NATO, Russia and Japan, in that order, but not Netanyahu.

This not only surprises the analysts, but must be bothering Netanyahu, who had enjoyed exceptionally cordial as well as personal relationships with outgoing President, Donald Trump. 

Some quarters attribute the lack of a call between Biden and Netanyahu to Joe Biden’s priorities, which are mostly domestic in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as an America that has increasingly disentangled itself from the Middle East in recent years.

However, it also comes at a time when Israeli officials feel a sense of urgency to communicate with Biden on his stated plan to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Netanyahu, IDF Chief of Staff and others have said returning to the plan, with its sunset clauses would eventually allow Iran to attain nuclear weapons that would endanger Israel.

Blinken and others in the Biden administration have said they would speak with US allies in the region, including Israel, before Iran, but it was still too early for negotiations.

The history haunt Israelis because former US President, Barack Obama called Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas before calling the then Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert on his first day in office, indicating his emphasis on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Netanyahu was the third leader former president Donald Trump called, which reflected their close relationship.

“Biden is screening Netanyahu’s calls... Netanyahu is now reaping the rotten fruit of the rift he created with the Democrats,” Meretz leader MK Nitzan Horowitz wrote on Facebook.

“Israel must rehabilitate its relationship with the Democrats and the new administration and return to values of democracy, equality and peace,” he said, adding that Meretz was the only party that speaks the Democrats’ language.

According to former Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, “They’ll speak eventually, and [Netanyahu] will eventually go to Washington.” But regarding Biden’s phone calls, he said: “There’s a message in that order.”

Netanyahu congratulated Biden for winning the presidency about 12 hours after most of the other leaders with whom the president spoke. He also did not actually say in his message that Biden was president-elect and he followed it with praise for Trump, Oren said. “There’s a price to pay for that,” he said.

Oren was ambassador to the US (2009-13) during the Obama administration, when Biden was Vice President. Netanyahu and Biden are unlikely to have the mutual personal acrimony that poisoned the relationship with Obama, he said.

“They may not be as chummy as they used to be... but it won’t be like [Netanyahu] and Obama: That was very bad blood,” Oren said.

Israel wish list for a new Iran Nuclear Deal

Ensuring US President Joe Biden administration works to fully and effectively prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is the first priority for Israel. If the Biden administration enters into talks with Iran, Israel wishes to ensure the weak points of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers are left out of the new deal.

Those include removing the sunset clauses, which gradually removed sanctions and limitations on uranium enrichment, such that Iran would have been able to develop a nuclear weapon in 2030 under the terms of the JCPOA.

Another Israeli priority is “anywhere, anytime inspections” of Iran nuclear sites, as opposed to Tehran being forewarned as the deal currently requires.

Those are far more important to Israel than something members of the Biden administration and some Israeli media reports have suggested: to add clauses to the JCPOA to stop Iran’s ballistic missile program and malign activities in the region. Israel believes Iran must not have a right to enrich uranium under whatever future framework is reached.

Israel is preparing a plan to counter Biden administration’s intention to negotiate a return to the Iran deal. As reported in The Jerusalem Post earlier, the security cabinet has not met to discuss the matter, but the senior government source said a smaller forum of top ministers will likely determine overall strategy.

In recent weeks, Biden administration officials have said talk of rejoining the JCPOA is premature, and that they plan to speak with allies in the region, Israel among them, before negotiating with Iran. Israel is reassured by those remarks, and that Israel is not looking for a fight with Biden. Rather, Israeli officials prefer that there be conversations behind closed doors between top officials.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to seek an in-person meeting with Biden in the coming months. Such a meeting between the Israeli prime minister and the new US president is customary during the first few months of a new administration in Washington in recent decades, but has even greater urgency due to the administration’s Iran policies. However, Biden may not want to meet with Netanyahu before the March 23 election in order not to appear like he is taking sides.

United States still viewed as ‘grey rhino’ risk for Chinese economy

The outlook for China-US trade ties under a Joe Biden presidency has been met with mixed views by Chinese economists; with some saying the United States remains the nation’s biggest “grey rhino” – a very obvious yet ignored threat – in terms of economic risk this year.

Biden, who was sworn in as the 46^th US president on Wednesday, inherits a bilateral relationship at historic lows and many economists are hoping he can reverse the course set by former president Donald Trump, who launched a damaging trade war in 2018.

“It is quite safe to say that in the past two years, no one has won the trade war. China may have suffered heavily, but the price the US has paid was also very high,” said Yu Yongding, a prominent Chinese economist and former central bank adviser.

China’s trade surplus with the US rose to US$316.91 billion in 2020 from US$295.77 billion in 2019, despite China’s purchasing commitments in the phase one trade deal and heavy tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods.

The 2020 figure represents a 14.9 per cent jump from a US$275.8 billion surplus in 2017, when Trump took office claiming that China’s trade practices were unfair and cost Americans jobs.

One year after signing the phase one deal, China remains far behind in its commitment to buy more American goods. In the first 11 months of last year, China’s purchases of products included in the agreement reached only 58 per cent of its targets using US Census Bureau statistics, or 56 per cent using Chinese customs data, according to a report by Peterson Institute for International Economics released this month.

Yu said given China was so far behind the target partly due to the coronavirus pandemic, the two countries should renegotiate the agreement in accordance with the force majeure clause, which frees both sides from obligation due to extraordinary events outside their control.

 “To show good faith, China should in principle adhere to its commitments made in the phase one agreements,” he said. “Although personally I don’t like quantity targets – a deal is a deal.”

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Biden must change US policies towards China, including rolling back the Section 301 tariffs, most of which are still in place and borne by US importers and consumers, not Chinese exporters.

Although the Trump administration deserves credit for sounding the alarm on Xi Jinping-led China, “it did not address that challenge with effective policies that changed the facts on the ground in America’s favour,” said Kennedy in a note this week.

Biden is expected to adopt a less antagonistic tone towards China, but he has indicated his approach on trade will not differ hugely from Trump, at least in the short term. This has caused some Chinese economists to take a cautious stance towards the new president.

Guan Qingyou, an economist and president of Rushi Advanced Institute of Finance, said China’s fast recovery from the pandemic has accelerated it along its path to surpass the US as the world’s largest economy, and conflict between the two powers will become more pronounced.

 “The current appointments of senior officials in the Biden administration indicate that the US is building up pressure on China, and the grey rhino China faces this year may still come from the US,” he said in a note published this week.

His view was echoed by Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchange, a government-backed think tank, who said on Tuesday “negative energy” from some American politicians had affected efforts to fight the pandemic and rescue the global economy, and might continue during the Biden administration.

“Even though some absurd politicians have withdrawn from the stage of history, the ghosts of the extremely ignorant populism, anti-intellectualism and McCarthyism will keep diffusing over these countries for a long time, continuing to impact the world economy and China-US relations,” she said.

There are also concerns about Biden’s impact on the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The Chinese currency surged against the US dollar last year starting in May, as the world’s second largest economy remained a rare bright spot in an otherwise ravaged global economy.

We’ve previously glorified Biden that he might cut tariffs when he comes into power, but now it seems that he won’t roll back the tariffs immediately

However, the yuan has declined so far this month on expectations for more US economic stimulus under Biden, who unveiled a $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan last week.

China promised not to manipulate the yuan’s exchange rate for competitive advantage as part of the phase one deal, but the US Department of the Treasury kept China on its watch list for foreign-exchange manipulation in its final report before the Trump left office.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities, expected more volatility ahead for the yuan, especially in the early stage of Biden’s term.

“Last year the capital market had a very high expectation of de-escalation in US-China relations that partially led to the surge of the yuan,” Zhong said in a webinar this week. “We’ve previously glorified Biden that he might cut tariffs when he comes into power, but now it seems that he won’t roll back the tariffs immediately.

“That’s the key point, because the gap in the expectations will inevitably cause fluctuations in the yuan exchange rate.”

Courtesy: South China Morning Post

Joe Biden nominates 20 Indo-Americans, 13 of them women

Joe Biden, President of United States has nominated at least 20 Indian Americans, including 13 women, to key positions in his administration. Among the Indians are Hindus, Muslims and Christians. As many as 17 of them would be part of the White House complex. This comes as a feat for the small ethnic community that constitutes one percent of America’s population.

Kamala Harris is also the first person of South Asia descent to sworn in as Vice President of the United States. “The dedication that the Indian-American community has shown to public service over the years has been recognized in a big way at the very start of this administration! I am particularly pleased that the overwhelming majority are women. Our community has truly arrived in serving the nation,” Indiaspora founder M. R. Rangaswami told PTI.

Biden had assured the Indian-American community during a virtual celebration of India’s Independence Day on August 15, 2020 that he will continue to reply on the diaspora during his presidential stint. “My constituents in Delaware, my staff in the Senate, the Obama-Biden administration, which had more Indian-Americans than any other administration in the history of this country and this campaign with Indian Americans at senior levels, which of course includes the top of the heap, our dear friend (Harris) who will be the first Indian-American vice president in the history of the United States of America,” Biden had said in his video address.

Here’s a list of all the India-Americans nominated so far:

Neera Tanden: She has been nominated as Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.

Dr Vivek Murthy: He has been nominated as the US Surgeon General.

Vanita Gupta: She has been nominated as Associate Attorney General Department of Justice.

Uzra Zeya: She has been nominated under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights.

Mala Adiga: She has been appointed as Policy Director to the First Lady Dr Jill Biden.

Garima Verma: She has been nominated as the Digital Director of the Office of the First Lady.

Sabrina Singh: She has been named as the First Lady’s Deputy Press Secretary.

Aisha Shah: She has been named as Partnership Manager at the White House Office of Digital Strategy.

Sameera Fazili: She would occupy the key position of Deputy Director at the US National Economic Council (NEC) in the White House.

Bharat Ramamurti: He has been nominated as the Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council.

Gautam Raghavan: He has been nominated as Deputy Director in Office of Presidential Personnel.

Vinay Reddy: He has been named as Director of Speechwriting.

Vedant Patel: He has been nominated as Assistant Press Secretary to the President.

Sonia Aggarwal: She has been named Senior Advisor for Climate Policy and Innovation in the Office of the Domestic Climate Policy at the White House.

Vidur Sharma: He has been appointed as Policy Advisor for Testing for the White House Covid-19 Response Team.

Apart from them, three Indian-Americans have made their way to the crucial National Security Council of the White House, thus leaving a permanent imprint on the country’s foreign policy and national security. They are: Tarun Chhabra –Senior Director for Technology and National Security; Sumona Guha — Senior Director for South Asia; Shanthi Kalathil — Coordinator for Democracy and Human Rights

Two Indian-Americans women have been appointed to the Office of the White House Counsel — Neha Gupta as Associate Counsel and Reema Shah as Deputy Associate Counsel.

Courtesy: South Asia Journal

Biden Middle East Policy: Need to disentangle United States from Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry

The Biden administration will face a number of challenges in the Middle East over the next four years. The diplomatic landscape of the region offers the United States ample opportunities to offer peace initiatives. 

Some have been successful and enduring, like the 1978 Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel. There have also been many more notable failed attempts, such as the stalled talks between Israelis and Palestinians during the Obama administration.

Diplomacy does not have to be big and bold to be successful. The Biden administration has an opportunity to stabilize the Middle East by disentangling from the regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This has the prospects of reducing the temperature of relations between these two regional rivals and possibly even prompting them to settle some of their differences on behalf of regional stability.

One may like it or not, the United States has become party to the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Of course there are profound issues related to wars in Syria and Yemen and instability in Iraq and Lebanon that separate them. But much of the enmity they harbor for each other relates in no small way to Washington. Iran sees Saudi Arabia (and Israel) as the tip of the spear of US efforts to undermine it. Iran sponsored attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019 after Washington’s maximum pressure campaign is prima facie evidence of this.

Saudi Arabia has felt little incentive to even entertain diplomacy with Iran given the large US military footprint in the Persian Gulf and Trump’s hostility toward Iran. Not only is the United States a party to the Iran-Saudi rivalry, but it has hardened the resolve of both sides, driving them further away from diplomacy, with negative consequences for the entire region.

The United States lacks the capacity to persuade either of the regional rivals toward rapprochement. But Washington can play a constructive role by extricating itself from the role of central character in this conflict. This will require recalibrating relations with Saudi Arabia, supporting Riyadh but also making sure that it does not continue using Washington as a crutch for shunning diplomacy.

It also necessitates the United States working to ensure that the Abraham Accords between Israel and the UAE are used as a bridge for building further regional cooperation and not merely as a cudgel for deepening hostilities to Iran. And it will necessitate the United States moving toward a diplomatic track with Iran, starting with rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal, on the condition that Tehran reverts to compliance.

The US will need to use leverage to move a stubborn Iran into a more constructive regional role, but skillful diplomacy can deprive Iranian leaders of the narrative that their regional adventurism is a necessary defensive crouch for deterring a hostile Washington.

Disentangling the United States from the regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia won’t ensure peace between the two regional powers. But it can force Iran and Saudi Arabia to deal with each other on their own terms, and not hide behind relations with Washington.

If successful in cooling the temperature of relations between these two powers, it can also possibly have other benefits, such as sucking some of the oxygen out of the proxy conflict dimension of the civil wars roiling Syria and Yemen and helping stabilize Lebanon and Iraq.

While the United States can’t start a peace process between Iran and Saudi Arabia, peace should be the objective of the US diplomacy. Rebalancing relations with friends and foes would go a long way toward this objective. Steady resolve rather than bold diplomacy might be just what the region needs from Washington right now.

Biden appeasing Iran would be bad for US security, says Mike Pompeo

Lifting sanctions on Iran while it maintains its nuclear aspirations will endanger America and the world, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned in an interview for The Jerusalem Post-Khaleej Times conference.

“If we appease Iran, if we underwrite Iran, if we allow Europeans to reenter [Iran] and create wealth for the kleptocrats at the head of this theocracy, that would be a bad thing for the region’s security, for Europe’s security and for American security,” Pompeo said.

Pompeo expressed hope that President-elect Joe Biden’s administration “will recognize that this is not 2015…The whole world can recognize that Iran is the destabilizing influence in the whole Middle East.”

The Trump administration left the 2015 Iran deal in 2018, and has maintained a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against the Islamic Republic. Biden has said he intends to bring the US back to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran deal’s official name, along with an Iranian return to compliance.

Iran has repeatedly violated the agreement, most recently declaring last week that it would enrich uranium up to 20% in the underground Fordow facility.

As a result of the “maximum pressure,” Pompeo said “it’s very clear that Iran is more isolated than it has ever been.”

“Our decision to abandon the ridiculous thing called the JCPOA, which enabled, armed and provided resources and money to the largest state sponsor of terror in the world…put Iran in a place where it had to make hard decisions about its own economy, whether to feed its own people or fund Shi’a militias in Iraq and Syria,” he said.

Should Iran change its ways, the US can engage with its regime, Pompeo said, but “if they don’t, the US has to make sure it is part of a coalition that works alongside each other to promote stability in the Middle East.”

Building that coalition was one of the major factors in launching the Abraham Accords, in which the United Arab Emirates established diplomatic relations with Israel in August, followed by Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.

“One of the things that enabled the Abraham Accords was America’s recognition that the most important players in this effort [against Iran] were the countries in the region, Gulf states, Israel – all those players were truly impacted,” Pompeo said.

Still, Pompeo said those countries did not just normalize ties with Israel because of the US; “it happened because it was the right thing to do.”

“Those sovereign nations came to the Abraham Accords…because it was the right thing for their own people,” he said. “These commercial, security and diplomatic relationships will continue to grow, and I hope the US will be an encouragement for that.”

The Abraham Accords has allowed the countries to partner with Israel to be “safer, more prosperous and more secure,” Pompeo said.

Normalization with Israel is “the right direction of travel for the entire region,” he added.

Asked if the rioting at the US Capitol last week was an obstacle to more countries establishing relations with Israel in the final days of US President Donald Trump’s term, Pompeo said he saw no correlation whatsoever.

“It’s not binary, normalizing or not. We see lots of countries moving in the right direction even if they have not formally signed the Abraham Accords,” he said.

Pompeo projected that Muslim-majority nations in Asia and Africa will likely be next to have open ties with Israel.

“It truly augurs well for security in the region,” he said.

Asked about the Pompeo Doctrine, his declaration that the State Department no longer sees settlements as illegal per se, he said: “We knew we had to recognize reality", adding that the US recognition does not undermine security for any country in the region. 

Similarly, Pompeo said that Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish people and Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights are “just reality, and we recognized it.”

“We were told if we recognize those things all hecks would break loose and that didn't materialize,” he added.

At the same time, Pompeo said that the Trump administration worked to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calling its peace plan “a real, true pathway for better existence for the Palestinian people.”

“The Palestinian leadership must get on board,” he said.

Biden terms Trump an embarrassment

Joe Biden, President-elect of United States said Friday, he was glad that incumbent President Donald Trump would not attend his inauguration later this month. He termed Trump an embarrassment, who is unfit to serve.

“It’s a good thing, him not showing up,” Biden told reporters in Wilmington. The remarks represented a reversal for Biden, who last month said that it was important for the country that Trump attends the inauguration.

“He has exceeded even my worst notions about him. He has been an embarrassment to the country, embarrassed us around the world. Not worthy, not worthy to hold that office,” Biden continued.

Trump announced on Twitter earlier Friday that he would not attend the Ceremony, a decision that was anticipated by the president’s allies.

Biden’s remarks came two days after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol after the president encouraged them to join his futile effort to contest the election results. The violent episode has left five dead, including a Capitol police officer, and sparked broad condemnation of Trump.

The House is seriously considering impeaching Trump a second time following the events. Biden refused to take a position Friday on whether Trump should be impeached, leaving the choice up to Congress and saying he was focused on his inauguration on 20th of this month.

“If we were six months out, we should be doing everything to get him out of office — impeaching him again, trying to invoke the 25th Amendment, whatever it took to get him out of office,” Biden said. “But I am focused now on us taking control as president and vice president on the 20th and to get our agenda moving as quickly as we can.”

Biden said he had long been saying that Trump was unfit to serve and called him “one of the most incompetent presidents in the history of the United States of America.”

Biden later said Vice President Pence was “welcome” to come to the inauguration, describing it as an “honor” to have him there. He said the two have not spoken; Pence is expected to attend in some capacity.

Pence presided over a joint session of Congress as lawmakers counted the Electoral College votes affirming Biden’s win earlier this week, a proceeding that was delayed by the riots at the Capitol. Pence was forced to evacuate the Senate chamber when the rioters broke into the building.

P.S. If you have read up to this please also spare a few minutes to read one of my blogs America’s Embarrassment https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2017/07/americas-embarrassment.html written in July 2017.

Can Trump be charged with sedition or treason?

On Wednesday, US lawmakers met to certify the victory of President-elect Joe Biden in the 2020 US presidential election. But the proceedings were interrupted by protesters, who have descended on the US Capitol building following a speech from Donald Trump. Police fired tear gas and ordered the evacuation of several office buildings after the protests turned violent and lawmakers were placed on lockdown inside the building.

Trump vowed in a dramatic speech behind bullet proof glass that he “will never concede” the election, telling a crowd of supporters: “All of us here today do not want to see our election victory stolen by emboldened radical Democrats."

He added: “We will never give up. We will never concede. It doesn't happen.

"You don't concede when there's theft involved. Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore.”

Trump also lashed out at his Vice-President, Mike Pence, saying he did not have the “courage” to block the formal confirmation of Biden as President.

Trump tweeted: “Mike Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they were asked to previously certify. USA demands the truth!"

The actions of protesters at the Capitol have been widely condemned by politicians and lawmakers.

Republican Senator Mitt Romney told the New York Times: "This is what the president has caused today, this insurrection."

Letitia James, New York Attorney General said, “The coup attempt initiated by outgoing President Trump has been despicable. Today, it became violent.

“If blood is shed, it will be on his hands. These actions, fueled by lies and wild conspiracy theories espoused by President Trump, must be unequivocally condemned by every corner of our society.”

When Trump is no longer in office, any sign of encouraging his supporters to oppose the new Government could be seen as sedition.

Congress was tasked with formally certifying the November election results, in a debate that was expected to stretch for several hours as some Republican lawmakers - including Mike Pence - sought to throw out election results in states the president narrowly lost.

Trump has asked protesters at the Capitol to be “peaceful” in a recent social media post. He tweeted: “I am asking for everyone at the US Capitol to remain peaceful.

“No violence! Remember, we are the Party of Law and Order – respect the Law and our great men and women in Blue. Thank you!”

Author Sasha Abramsky has demanded Trump be brought to justice for sedition in a comment piece written for The Nation.

He said: “Trump is now talking the sedition talk on a daily basis, and, one has to assume, actively planning ways to walk the sedition walk over the next month.

“He is meeting regularly with Sidney Powell, Steve Bannon and other plotters, and daily he is being fed a diet of ever more extreme scenarios for overturning the election results.

“This is no idle chatter, and even if we had once been inclined to dismiss it with words to the effect of 'Oh, it’s only the crazy old guy blowing off steam,' we no longer have that luxury.

“In increasingly specific language, Trump and his band of traitors are advocating some combination of martial law, national emergency, and paramilitarism as a way to cling to power.”

Some US politicians have also called for Trump to be prosecuted for sedition.

California Congressman Jared Huffman tweeted: “OK threshold crossed - it's time to criminally prosecute Donald Trump for sedition. This has gone way too far.”

In another tweet, Huffman wrote: “Never imagined I would be locked down in the US Capitol trying to ride out a violent coup attempt led by an American President.”

Texas Congressman Al Green tweeted, “@realDonaldTrump call on YOUR supporters to stop this madness that YOU incited!

“The Constitution intended a peaceful transfer of power.

“This is seditious. Only a dictator or would-be dictator would encourage this. Which are you?”

Treason under the US legal perspective is defined as someone who owes allegiance to the United States that “levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere”.

When Trump leaves the White House, it may become clearer whether he could face prosecution for his conduct related to the election.

Another effort to strip Pakistan of its status as a major non-Nato ally of United States

A Republican lawmaker has moved a bill in the 117th Congress, seeking to strip Pakistan of its status as a major non-Nato ally of the United States. The Washington Times also pointed out that the bill, introduced drew little US media notice but triggered headlines in India, which … has long been critical of US-Pakistan relations. I am pleased to share with readers one of my blogs titled “US can’t afford to antagonize Pakistan” written as back as March 2013.

Over the years Pakistan has been fighting proxy US war in Afghanistan, not because of any love for Afghans or even to please the super power. It has been dragged into it and one could sum up the negotiations in before US assault on Afghanistan in one sentence ‘either you are with us or with our enemies’. At that time Pakistan had no option but to bow down as India was ready to join the US crusade. By that time Pakistan was also facing enduring economic sanctions for undertaking ‘nuclear test in 1998 and the probability was that refusal to join the war may also lead to air strikes on Pakistan’s sensitive installations.

On this Monday, Iranian Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari jointly inaugurated the work on the of 780-km Pakistani segment of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline in the Iranian port city of Chahbahar. The point to be noted is that in this city India is constructing a sea port which is also being linked with Central Asia via Afghanistan on which the United States has never raised any objection. In fact it may be said that India is doing this under the instructions of United States which wants an alternative route, other than through Pakistan.

As I have said earlier United States is once again following ‘carrot and stock policy’. Victoria Nuland of the US State Department on one hand warns Islamabad that its cooperation with Tehran falls under the Iran Sanctions Act, which means that Pakistan may face a ban on its transactions through American banks and that US military and other aid to Pakistan may be curtailed. She also plays the mantra that the US administration is willing to offer other alternatives, but little has been done to date.

Pakistan is rightly demanding its treatment at par with India, if it has to quite Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, this could be done on only one condition supply of nuclear technology for civilian use. The US has offered this to India in exchange for deserting the gas pipeline project.

This morning I got another inspiration after reading an article in eurasiareview quoting Russian analyst Maxim Minayev of the Civic Society Development Foundation on the matter. He said “I don’t think that Washington will cut its military aid to Islamabad as long as the Afghan campaign continues. The aid is meant to strengthen Pakistan’s defense capacity, particularly against radical Islamist groups. Speaking about Pakistani-US relations, one should bear in mind the potential of those who oversee them in the White House, namely US Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joseph Biden. I think that such players will manage to create additional opportunities for the White House in terms of minimizing the impact of the Pakistani-Iranian pipeline project”.

In his view impositions of sanctions may have the opposite effect. If Washington curtails political and military cooperation with Islamabad, the latter will move to expand ties with China. That’s not what the White House wants. There will be a general elections in Pakistan in May with the ruling Pakistan People’s Party facing a tough challenge from the Muslim League-Nawaz led by ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Both the parties are campaigning on the promises to ease the country’s energy crisis that has reduced its GDP growth rate to around 2.5%. Therefore, any party that wins majority or form coalition government, its first priority will be to resolve looming energy crisis.

In fact President Asif Ali Zardari has won hearts of Pakistanis once again by transferring control of Gwadar port to China and commencing work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Any effort by the United States to create hurdle in smooth working of these two projects could raise two popular demands: 1) Pakistan should immediately pull itself out of US proxy war and 2) stopping movement of Nato supplies through Pakistan with immediate effect. I hope the US government just can’t afford either one.

I also tend to agree with Russian Orientalist Sergei Druzhilovsky. He believes that the project will go ahead, no matter who wins the election. All the more so that Iran has already built its 900-km segment of the pipeline and hopes to extend it into India. For Pakistan, gas transit means handsome profits. The latter circumstance must have outweighed the alternatives proposed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Last May, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar made clear Islamabad would not yield to pressure over the pipeline.

Pakistan needs gas to keep its thermal power plants running and industries operating at optimum capacity utilization. Last but not the least Pakistan has a right to demand that the United States should first impose economic sanctions on India for buying oil from Iran, constructing Chahbahar seaport and rail and road network in Iran.

Would Joe Biden victory change Israeli politics?

When Donald Trump won the election in 2016, Benjamin Netanyahu became his favorite and best student. The Israeli prime minister had known Trump for years – he was at the president’s wedding to Melania in 2005 in Palm Beach – and paid close attention. When he started to see how Trump’s tactics were working in the US, he adopted some for himself.

Following his mentor’s lead, Netanyahu perfected the art of right-wing populism. He copied the president’s use of social media, launched a weekly Trump-like webcast to counter alleged fake news, and attacked the police, the attorney-general, the courts, the media and the elites. Everything became fair game, nothing off limits.

Like Trump on race, Netanyahu played up Israel’s ethnicity card, trying to drive a wedge between Ashkenazim and Mizrahim. He surrounded himself with people who never hesitated to wander beyond his circle, and who did Netanyahu’s bidding in the media, the Knesset or the cabinet.

Netanyahu was often the first and most vocal defender of the Supreme Court. In 2012, for example, he spoke about how a “strong and independent justice system is what allows for the existence of all the other institutions in a democracy.” He also refrained from unilateral moves vis a vis the Palestinians. Annexation? That was never an option. Instead, he was always the one urging caution.

But all that changed in 2016, and Trump is partially to thank for it. Netanyahu saw the movement Trump created, and tried to fashion the same thing in Israel. There was one point in 2017 when he even started dying his hair different colors.

Yes, we have a different electoral system (which is far worse for determining the prime minister than what is happening in America), but when it comes to rhetoric and tactics, we have in recent years pretty much duplicated what happened across the Atlantic. That is why it will be interesting to see how Joe Biden election as President wills Israel’s domestic political system.

The first person who will be directly impacted by a Biden presidency is Netanyahu, who is reportedly debating whether to cave to Blue and White’s demands and pass a 2021 budget, or refuse, and take Israel to a new election.

While Biden does not play a direct role in that consideration - another election is more about internal polling and Netanyahu’s bribery trial - a Democratic administration is something to think about.

What then could Netanyahu argue under a Biden presidency? For one thing, he could do to Biden what he did to Barack Obama: portray him as an adversary.

While Biden is a known political commodity and has a strong record among Democrats when it comes to Israel, there will almost definitely be disagreements over issues like the Iran deal, the settlements and the Palestinians, and any one of those could be used to ignite a crisis with a clear political benefit.

That is what he did with Obama, and then used it as part of his election campaign in 2019 that showed Netanyahu flaunting the infamous “lecture” he gave Obama in the Oval Office during a visit there in 2012. The message was simple: only a strong leader like Netanyahu can stand up to a president like Obama.

Could he do that as well with Biden? It’s possible. Right-wing pundits and Netanyahu supporters are already mourning what appears to be the end of the Trump administration. Tzachi Hanegbi, a Likud minister close to Netanyahu, went as far on Thursday as to warn of a possible Israeli war with Iran if Biden becomes president.

Is such a war possible? Who knows? But warning about it now serves one purpose: presenting Biden as a potential danger. And that, in a corrupt way, could be beneficial for Netanyahu’s political survival.

On the other side of all of this is Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who has issued a public ultimatum that he will not allow this government to continue without a 2021 budget.

Interestingly, a Biden win has the potential to help Gantz. The reason is because Biden, obviously, is the polar opposite of Trump. He is not a populist but a veteran politician whose message is one of unity, compassion and reconciliation, ideas that Gantz has tried to push since entering politics two years ago.

One of the problems was that until now, a significant number of Israelis found it hard to imagine an Israel without Netanyahu – an 18-year-old army recruit has never been conscious of any other prime minster – and all his shtick. It was as if the division that Netanyahu brought with him to the job was a necessary requirement.

Soon enough, Israelis might see a different kind of president in the White House, one who doesn’t attack the police, the courts, the attorney-general and the media. One who speaks about unity, positive change and coming together.

That might radiate back here and give Gantz a boost in a future election. While Gantz’s Blue and White currently polls at only nine seats, he is confident that the party will pull in double that figure in the next election, one that could happen as early as March.

The reason he might be right is because the defense minister rarely attacks Netanyahu right now as part of the coalition, and when he does it is usually with soft shots. A collapse of the government – especially one initiated by his party – would give the former IDF chief of staff the offensive once again.

It would also give him a chance to explain why he joined Netanyahu’s government in April, and why it took him until now to bring it to an end.

If articulated well, he has some good points to make. While it is true that Gantz had promised over three campaigns not to sit with Netanyahu, that was before COVID-19 entered our lives. Once it did and brought with it the economic crisis that has upended nations, Gantz’s calculus changed as well.

What he didn’t fully realize in April was that Netanyahu did not change with him. Gantz’s mistake was thinking that Netanyahu would rise to the occasion. Sadly, he did not, and instead Netanyahu continued to put politics before the pandemic, and to work consistently to undermine his coalition partner.

Privately, Gantz tells party members that he knows there is almost no chance Netanyahu will abide by the rotation agreement that is supposed to see the defense minister become prime minister next November. But he does feel that it is important to provide a chance for a 2021 state budget to pass, since ultimately that is what the Israeli people need: financial stability and a government that works for them.

Expect a decision on this in the coming two weeks, but also expect a Biden win to give Gantz a feeling that a politician like him can succeed. Israelis will see that someone who comes across as decent, moral and honest can be president of the largest superpower in the world. Hopefully, Gantz will think, they can believe the same about their own country.

In a year like 2020 though, it has been learnt that anything is possible. But one thing is for sure that Trump and his style of politics is not going away so quickly. If there were people who thought that Trump’s election in 2016 was a “mistake” or a “malfunction,” that was proven wrong on Tuesday when he collected close to five million more votes than in 2016.

America is split. It is split geographically and it is split even within those battleground states – Michigan, Wisconsin and more. Traditionally, a president does not speak out publicly about policy, politics or party when he steps down. That was the case with Bill Clinton, with George W. Bush, and until recently, also with Obama. This could be tricky for Israel, which will need to navigate between making inroads with a Biden administration and the Democratic Party, but also at not upsetting an influential former president.