Another effort to strip Pakistan of its status as a major non-Nato ally of United States

A Republican lawmaker has moved a bill in the 117th Congress, seeking to strip Pakistan of its status as a major non-Nato ally of the United States. The Washington Times also pointed out that the bill, introduced drew little US media notice but triggered headlines in India, which … has long been critical of US-Pakistan relations. I am pleased to share with readers one of my blogs titled “US can’t afford to antagonize Pakistan” written as back as March 2013.

Over the years Pakistan has been fighting proxy US war in Afghanistan, not because of any love for Afghans or even to please the super power. It has been dragged into it and one could sum up the negotiations in before US assault on Afghanistan in one sentence ‘either you are with us or with our enemies’. At that time Pakistan had no option but to bow down as India was ready to join the US crusade. By that time Pakistan was also facing enduring economic sanctions for undertaking ‘nuclear test in 1998 and the probability was that refusal to join the war may also lead to air strikes on Pakistan’s sensitive installations.

On this Monday, Iranian Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari jointly inaugurated the work on the of 780-km Pakistani segment of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline in the Iranian port city of Chahbahar. The point to be noted is that in this city India is constructing a sea port which is also being linked with Central Asia via Afghanistan on which the United States has never raised any objection. In fact it may be said that India is doing this under the instructions of United States which wants an alternative route, other than through Pakistan.

As I have said earlier United States is once again following ‘carrot and stock policy’. Victoria Nuland of the US State Department on one hand warns Islamabad that its cooperation with Tehran falls under the Iran Sanctions Act, which means that Pakistan may face a ban on its transactions through American banks and that US military and other aid to Pakistan may be curtailed. She also plays the mantra that the US administration is willing to offer other alternatives, but little has been done to date.

Pakistan is rightly demanding its treatment at par with India, if it has to quite Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, this could be done on only one condition supply of nuclear technology for civilian use. The US has offered this to India in exchange for deserting the gas pipeline project.

This morning I got another inspiration after reading an article in eurasiareview quoting Russian analyst Maxim Minayev of the Civic Society Development Foundation on the matter. He said “I don’t think that Washington will cut its military aid to Islamabad as long as the Afghan campaign continues. The aid is meant to strengthen Pakistan’s defense capacity, particularly against radical Islamist groups. Speaking about Pakistani-US relations, one should bear in mind the potential of those who oversee them in the White House, namely US Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joseph Biden. I think that such players will manage to create additional opportunities for the White House in terms of minimizing the impact of the Pakistani-Iranian pipeline project”.

In his view impositions of sanctions may have the opposite effect. If Washington curtails political and military cooperation with Islamabad, the latter will move to expand ties with China. That’s not what the White House wants. There will be a general elections in Pakistan in May with the ruling Pakistan People’s Party facing a tough challenge from the Muslim League-Nawaz led by ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Both the parties are campaigning on the promises to ease the country’s energy crisis that has reduced its GDP growth rate to around 2.5%. Therefore, any party that wins majority or form coalition government, its first priority will be to resolve looming energy crisis.

In fact President Asif Ali Zardari has won hearts of Pakistanis once again by transferring control of Gwadar port to China and commencing work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Any effort by the United States to create hurdle in smooth working of these two projects could raise two popular demands: 1) Pakistan should immediately pull itself out of US proxy war and 2) stopping movement of Nato supplies through Pakistan with immediate effect. I hope the US government just can’t afford either one.

I also tend to agree with Russian Orientalist Sergei Druzhilovsky. He believes that the project will go ahead, no matter who wins the election. All the more so that Iran has already built its 900-km segment of the pipeline and hopes to extend it into India. For Pakistan, gas transit means handsome profits. The latter circumstance must have outweighed the alternatives proposed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Last May, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar made clear Islamabad would not yield to pressure over the pipeline.

Pakistan needs gas to keep its thermal power plants running and industries operating at optimum capacity utilization. Last but not the least Pakistan has a right to demand that the United States should first impose economic sanctions on India for buying oil from Iran, constructing Chahbahar seaport and rail and road network in Iran.

History of protests in Iran spread over four decades

The protests of 1979 which led to return of religious cleric Ruhollah Khomeini to Iran and end to the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi still mesmerize the United States. Over the last four decades the United States imposed economic sanctions, but failed in forcing Iran to accept its hegemony. Over the years United States has sponsored and orchastered movements similar to 1979 protects to bring the change the prevailing administrative structure of Iran, but all in vain. In this article I have used details mostly published in the western media, some of the numbers may look exaggerated.   

Islamic Revolution (1979)

Major protests against the rule of Shah Reza Pahlavi began in January 1978 after an Iranian newspaper, Ettelaat, published a front-page editorial insulting Ruhollah Khomeini, a well-respected cleric, at the direction of the Shah. In reaction to the publication, several thousand protesters attacked symbols of the monarchy and clashed with security forces in the conservative city of Qom.

The opposition movement attracted millions of Iranians from all social strata. The monarchy was brutal, repressive and did not have popular support. Leftists wanted a more democratic system of government. Conservatives opposed the monarchy’s rapid westernization and secular outlook. High unemployment and inflation after 1977 economic collapse exacerbated tensions.

Between March and May 1978, the unrest spread to more than three dozen Iranian cities. On September 8, 1978, a day known as “Black Friday,” the regime imposed martial law and security forces opened fire on demonstrators in Tehran’s Jaleh Square, killing more than 100. By December 1978, protests had spread to nearly all of Iran’s major cities and dozens of smaller towns.

The Shah and his family fled the country for Egypt on January 16, 1979. Khomeini returned from exile and was welcomed by millions of people in the streets of Tehran. Khomeini officially took control of the government after a referendum establishing the Islamic Republic on April 1, 1979.

Price Hike Protests (2019)

In a surprise announcement on November 15, 2019, Iran hiked gas prices—by up to 300 percent—and introduced a new rationing system. The prime objective of the seemed raising funds to help the poor, but it backfired. The protests swept 100 cities over four days. They first broke out in oil-rich Khuzestan province, in Iran’s southwest but quickly spread to other regions, including Mashhad, a conservative stronghold and Iran’s second largest city, in the northwest. Demonstrators reportedly chanted anti-government slogans, including, "Have shame Rouhani, Leave the country alone!"

The regime used tear gas, water cannons and live ammunition to disperse the protesters. The government also nearly completely shut down the internet for five days to prevent images of the protests and crackdown from spreading over social media.

According to an Amnesty International report by December 2, at least 208 protesters had been killed. The Center for Human Rights in Iran estimated that 4,000 people were arrested. Iran rejected the reports by outside groups. The US State Department estimated that the regime killed more than 1,000 people, including at least a dozen children, but acknowledged that verification was difficult. Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, said US officials “know for certain” that the death toll was in the “many, many hundreds.”

Economic Protests (2017)

On December 28, 2017, demonstrators in Mashhad, Iran’s second largest city took to the streets to protest the government’s economic policies and the high prices of basic goods and commodities. The demonstrations quickly spread across the country to over 140 cities in every province, organized largely through social media messaging apps. The scope of the protests also expanded from economic woes to Iranian involvement in the Middle East and calls for regime change. Slogans included “not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran,” “leave Syria, think about us,” “Khamenei, shame on you, leave the country alone!" and "death to the dictator.” The protests were the largest and most intense since the 2009 Green Movement. But unlike the Green Movement, the 2017-18 protests were largely leaderless and disorganized. After two weeks of protests, at least 22 protesters were killed and more than 3,700 were detained. 

Green Scarf Movement (2009)

The Green Scarf Movement took its name from a green sash given to Mir Hossein Mousavi by Mohammad Khatami, Iran’s two-term president and the reform movement’s first standard-bearer. It reached its height when up to 3 million peaceful demonstrators turned out on Tehran streets to protest official claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the 2009 presidential election in a landslide. Their simple slogan was: “Where is my vote?” The movement soon embodied the frustrated aspirations of Iran’s century-old quest for democracy and desire for peaceful change.

Over the next six months, the Green Movement evolved from a mass group of angry voters to a nation-wide force demanding the democratic rights originally sought in the 1979 revolution, rights that were hijacked by radical clerics. Every few weeks, protesters took to the streets to challenge the regime and its leadership. But by early 2010, the regime had quashed public displays of opposition. The Green Movement retreated into a period of soul-searching and regrouping.

Riot police and Basij paramilitary forces violently suppressed the demonstrations immediately following the election, which attracted more than 40,000 Iranians. Between June 2009 and February 2010, more than 30 protesters were killed and 4,000 were arrested.

Student Protests (1999)

On July 8, 1999, students at Tehran University gathered to protest the government’s closure of a popular reformist newspaper, Salaam. The student groups supported then President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) and his reformist political faction, the Association of Combatant Clerics, which operated Salaam. The demonstrations were initially peaceful. But later that evening, security forces attacked a Tehran University dormitory where the student protesters were holed up. Riot police beat the students with clubs and set several rooms on fire. At least one student was killed and hundreds more were wounded. Police arrested more than 1,500 of the protesters. The attack on the student dormitory sparked widespread anger and protests that spread across the country. More than 10,000 demonstrators chanted slogans against government hardliners and clashed with police in the streets.

Protests continued for six days. By the end of the unrest, at least four protesters were killed and an estimated 1,200 to 1,400 were detained. Khatami seemed helpless to protect his base of supporters. His silence when security forces and thugs beat up protesting students at Tehran University were indicators that he had lost the initiative. Control had passed to the hardliners. The government finally quelled the protests on July 13 after a ban was announced on rallies. But the student protests laid the foundation for the Green Movement a decade later.

US pressurize Zardari to skip Iran visit

According to Financial Times, the visit of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to Tehran to seal a US$1.5 billion gas pipeline deal was unexpectedly cancelled due to extreme pressure from the United States. The news has been received in Pakistan with extreme disgust and some of the quarters term it an attack on country’s sovereignty.

Pakistanis are fully aware that Iran has offered hundreds of millions of dollars to finance the long-delayed gas pipeline and Iranian stance has offended United States. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president visited Islamabad last month to offer the financing. It was said to be just the first installment. There were also clear indications that if Pakistan show determination and seriously go ahead with this project it could get more money.

Reportedly President Zardari skipped his visit to Iran on some flimsy excuse. While President House official sources said the Iran trip was not on the itinerary but it looked all certain that he would stop over in Tehran on way to UK, France and Turkey as he was expected to sign some agreement pertaining to Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Earlier on Tuesday, Presidential Spokesman Farhatuallah Babar had confirmed to IRNA that President Zardari will visit Iran on December 7 for talks on bilateral and regional issues.

Many Pakistanis wanted President Zardari to go to Iran to sign this crucially important agreement. They are losing patience due to inordinate delay in implementation of the project primarily because of stiff US opposition. The agreement was to be inked between Tehran and Islamabad during the November visit to Pakistan by Iranian President Ahmadinejad but was differed due to text of contract not being ready.

It sounded like a big joke that the President met Malala Yousafzai, a 14 year old peace activist, who is being treated at Birmingham’s Queen Elizabeth Hospital in UK rather than stopping over in Iran. Critics termed the visit an unprecedented gesture by the president because he did not have any diplomatic engagements in the UK other than meeting Malala.

Pakistan is keen in going ahead with the project. Dr. Asim Hussain, Advisor to Prime Minister on Petroleum and Natural Resources has recently visited Tehran to finalize text. He met several Iranian officials, including President Ahmadinejad. A delegation of Iranian oil industry experts also visited Islamabad early in November to discuss the agreement on the payment of a $250mln loan to Pakistan to fund the project.

In addition to the investment, Iran is also due to build the Pakistani part of the multi-billion-dollar pipeline. A special team has been set up in the Iranian oil ministry to specify the method of investment and credit line for the pipeline on Pakistani soil.