Israel likely to disrupt normalization of Saudi-Iranian relationship

I am inclined to share an editorial of The Jerusalem Post titled “How Israel should approach Saudi-Iranian normalization?” Each line and word has to be read very carefully because with the normalization of Saudi-Iranian relationship both the United States and Israel will lose control on the Middle East as well as crude oil trade. On top of all rejection of decades old mantra, “Iran is a bigger threat for Saudi Arabia as compared to Israel” could cause a deep dent to the armament business of the US Military Complexes.

Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to end their diplomatic rift and reopen their missions last month in a deal brokered by China. How will the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh affect Jerusalem, and how should Israel respond to what appears to be a game-changer in the Middle East?

On the one hand, Saudi Arabia’s decision to move closer to Iran rather than Israel is of real concern. The Biden Administration has been pushing for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel for some time, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated clearly in his inaugural speech three months ago that his main foreign policy objective is to broaden the 2020 Abraham Accords and reach an agreement with Riyadh, while halting Iran’s nuclear program – which both Israel and Saudi Arabia strongly oppose.

According to Yadlin, Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran will remain enemies on religious, ideological and strategic levels, and it is not at all clear that they will be able to bridge the hostility between them within two months, as their agreement stipulates.

It is doubtful whether Iran will be able to fulfill its commitment and force the Houthis, who are acting relatively independently, to completely cease attacks against Saudi Arabia from Yemeni territory.

As the Post’s Seth Frantzman pointed out, the reason why the Saudi-Iranian deal was initially portrayed as a setback for Israel is that just days before it was announced, there had been reports in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times that Saudi Arabia had presented conditions for normalizing ties with Israel – including security guarantees from the US.

Frantzman argued that although the Saudi-Iranian deal might pave the way for relations between Riyadh and Syria, which would worry Israel, it could also lead to Iran scaling down its nuclear program, which would be a welcome development.

“Saudi Arabia will not want to sign a deal and then suddenly have Iran develop a bomb that threatens the region,” he wrote. “Clearly, regional stability means not having a nuclear-armed Iran or a nuclear arms race.”

Jerusalem and Riyadh have maintained clandestine contacts over establishing relations and Netanyahu said after meeting with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in January that they had discussed “the next steps to deepen the Abraham Accords and widen the circle of peace, with an emphasis on a breakthrough with Saudi Arabia.”

No Israeli officials have gone on record about the resumption of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, or the fact that it was a diplomatic victory for China in a region in which the US has historically played the dominant role.

The hope in Jerusalem is that, as in the case of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia’s detente with Iran will not prevent it from forging relations with Israel in the near future. Perhaps it will even expedite the process.

Regardless, now is not the time for Israel to take a wait-and-see approach, but rather to engage with both the US and – through appropriate channels – Saudi Arabia and explore how the window of opportunity for normalization can be maintained and eventually seized.

Israeli Grudge: Saudi-Iran deal destroys defense wall against Iran

A credible military threat against Iran coupled with a tough Western diplomatic stance is the best way to weaken the impact of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh, a senior Israeli official told reporters over the weekend.

The official spoke in response to the Iranian-Saudi Arabian deal reached to reestablish relations after years of hostility that had threatened stability and security in the Gulf and helped fuel conflicts in the Middle East from Yemen to Syria.

Israeli politicians immediately expressed concern as the move appeared to throw a monkey wrench in one of Netanyahu’s new government’s chief policy initiatives – to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia.

Israel has presumed that the necessity of creating a Gulf alliance between Israel and its Arab partners against Iran would help provide an incentive for the establishment of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and the Jewish state.

Former Prime Ministers Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett immediately warned of its implications for Israel’s strategy against Iran as they used the moment to attack Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in Italy when news of the deal broke.

The rapprochement signals the collapse of the regional defense wall that we started building against Iran, Lapid said, adding that it reflects the complete and dangerous failure of the Israeli government’s foreign policy.

 “This is what happens when one deals with legal insanity all day instead of doing one’s job against Iran and strengthening relations with the United States,” Lapid said.

The senior Israeli official, however, blamed the governments of Lapid and Bennett for the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement, noting that talks toward the agreement had begun already last year when they were in power.

Negotiations for this deal started about a year ago, with a round of at least five meetings, including the arrival of senior Saudi officials in Iran” and Iranian visits to Saudi Arabia in return, the official said.

It’s possible that at the time the Saudis felt that the Israeli stand on Iran was not strong enough, the official speculated.

The Saudis felt that the West’s position towards Iran was weak, particularly in the aftermath of Tehran’s armed drone attack against Saudi oil fields coupled with talks to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Israeli official explained.

Western countries have toughened their positions against Iran, but it’s still not strong enough, the official said.

An Israeli official told Iran International that Tehran’s agreement with Riyadh was not a surprise and that Israel did not believe the deal impacted its pursuit of normalizing ties with Riyadh.

Bennett, however, called the news of the renewed Iran-Saudi alliance a serious and dangerous development for Israel and a political victory for Iran.

“This delivers a fatal blow to efforts to build a regional coalition against Iran,” said Bennett.

He charged that it was a mark of the resounding failure of the Netanyahu government and stems from a combination of political neglect with the country’s general weakness and internal conflict.

“Countries in the world and the region are watching Israel in turmoil over the dysfunctional government that is engaged in systematic self-destruction,” Bennett said, adding in this case one of those countries chose a side.

Every day of this government’s “existence endangers the State of Israel,” Bennett stated.

“We need a broad national emergency government, which will work to repair the damage,” Bennett added.

Former defense minister Benny Gantz said Netanyahu had abandoned the security of Israel and its citizens. “The enormous security challenges facing the country are increasing, and the prime minister and his cabinet are busy with a coup d’état.”

Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein said the alliance was “bad for Israel and the entire free world.”

Iranian expert Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz from the Institute of National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University tweeted that the new alliance was a message to Israel that its dream of a regional alliance was not feasible and never had been.

It underscored the point that most of the countries in the region view dialogue as the best way to deal with Iran, leaving Israel as the sole country that is focused on a military option.

Analyst and former MK Ksenia Svetlova of Mitvim – The Israeli Regional Institute for Regional Foreign Policies noted on Twitter that “Saudi Arabia is normalizing relations. No, not with Israel but rather with Iran”, while it has rebuked Israel publicly for its treatment of the Palestinians.

“Only two months ago, Netanyahu promised to bring peace with Saudi Arabia. We seem to be moving in the opposite direction,” she wrote.

The Wall Street Journal in an editorial published Friday blamed the Biden administration for the Iranian-Saudi deal and the fact that Saudi Arabia has yet to join the Abraham Accords, which is the vehicle by which Israel has already normalized ties with four Arab countries.

Abraham Accords: Biggest prank in international diplomacy

It was described as a historic breakthrough in Israeli-Arab relations that would strengthen security in West Asia. If anything, it has been a total disaster, perhaps the biggest prank in the history of West Asia.

Initiated under the former administration of US President Donald Trump, Israel was under the illusion that it would easily find new Arab friends under the Abraham Accords.

The regime occupying Palestine was also under the delusion of a new anti-Iran alliance or an Arab-NATO if you like. Some other think tanks and institutions colluded with the idea. The idea that Arabs and Muslims would warm to Israel which has committed war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and murdered tens of thousands of children were unimaginable even at the time. 

Nevertheless, rather than uniting against Israel, Arab countries appear to be uniting with Israel, some institutes said more than two years ago.

The other purpose of the failed initiative was to isolate Palestine, according to US officials who alleged that during Israel’s short honeymoon period, if more Arab states can normalize ties with Israel, the aspect of an occupied Palestinian territory would be accepted among Arabs and Muslims.

At the time, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu lauded the accords as a breakthrough because they separated normalization with Arab states from any peace for the Palestinians.

More than two years later, the states that normalized ties with Israel have gained nothing apart from emboldening Israel to further violate Palestinian rights.

The occupation has killed around 250 Palestinians in year 2022 alone, while injuring tens of thousands of others. The Palestinian death toll in the occupied West Bank in 2022 has already reached its highest total in seven years while armed Palestinian retaliatory operations have also sharply increased.

There has been an increase in raids on occupied Palestinian towns and villages and more settler incursions in the al-Aqsa Mosque compound - Islam’s third holiest site.

It is said that the normalization deals had some strings attached. For example, more support in the form of security or advanced arms sales from the United States or even Israel for the monarchies and states that normalized ties.

The Trump administration formally notified Congress that it intends to sell 50 stealth F-35 fighter jets to the UAE as part of the normalization deals.

Reports then emerged that the UAE informed the US it was suspending discussions to acquire the jets, which was part of a US$23 billion package that also includes drones and other advanced munitions.

The sale of 50 F-35 warplanes made by Lockheed Martin to the UAE had already slowed; reportedly over concerns in Washington over Abu Dhabi's relationship with China, including the use of Huawei 5G technology in the country. Two years later, 50 F-35 warplanes remain grounded in the United States. 

The agreements signed at the White House some two years ago between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco tried to open the door to improve relations with Israel’s neighbors. Instead, it has firmly shut the door in Israel’s face and has seen rising anger against the regime in the region and beyond.

Over the past two years, support for Palestine has increased even more than before the Abraham Accords. Nowhere has this been more evident than at the Qatar World Cup over the past two weeks. Footage has captured Palestinian flags being waved both inside and outside stadiums, national teams carrying the Palestinian flag, and chants at stadiums in support of Palestine.

This is while Israeli settlers and journalists who traveled to Qatar have felt threatened while facing and witnessing firsthand, the hatred of the people of the region towards the regime and its atrocities against women and children. 

In occupied Palestine, Tamar Weiss an Israeli author acknowledged “at the end of the day, there isn’t such a difference compared to before the Abraham Accords, always when there is change, it raises hope. But until now, things have not changed. All that is left is hope.

Meanwhile, we haven’t changed anything in our approach toward the Palestinians. Nothing has changed. As I see it, the feeling of the person on the street is that things are the same.

Despite the propaganda campaign, there has been little tourism between Israel and the states that normalized ties with it. That is because Arabs feel there is no security for them in the Israeli-occupied territories and Israeli settlers feel there is no security for them in the Arab world.

There are some nations in West Asia where the rulers are open to relations with Israel but their people are opposed to such moves. There are also some nations in West Asia where the governments and their people are firmly opposed to any form of normalization.

And there are some nations in West Asia where the governments and their people are not only strongly opposed to any form of normalization but are openly and officially calling for the delivery of weapons to the oppressed Palestinian people.

Football World Cup a slap in the face of Israel

With the world cup in Qatar well underway, Israel occupying Palestine got an opportunity to try and further extend its occupying hand toward the Arab and Islamic world. But events at the world's most popular sporting event have painted a completely different picture, reports Tehran Times.

The few Arab countries officially normalizing relations with Israel over the past several years stands in contrast with a growing lack of public support for the Abraham Accords in the Persian Gulf. The reality is even some monarchies in some Kingdoms have embarrassed themselves by normalizing ties with Israel, despite strong opposition from their citizens. There would have been no normalization if the people of these monarchies have the right to voice their opinion on such controversial matters.

 Such is the disgust toward Israeli policies at the prestigious occasion that even reporters dispatched by the apartheid regime have been investigating and reporting on the 'Cup of Hatred' (as one Hebrew newspaper headline put it) towards Israelis on the streets of Doha. 

Instead, soccer fans in particular Arabs, at the first World Cup in West Asia are steering well clear of Israeli journalists in Qatar who have been trying to interview them in an attempt to send home attractive headlines to the war criminals in Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories.

Before the event even kicked off, Israeli officials had expressed hope that the US-brokered Abraham Accords reached with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020, and later Sudan and Morocco, would inspire further normalization, with a lot of that hope pinned on one of the region's influential player Saudi Arabia.

Attempts to try and even interview some Arab fans have fallen flat with Israeli reporters from the regime's biggest news broadcasters saying they are being snubbed reflecting the strong boycott and opposition by the people of the rulers of Arab and Islamic countries that normalized ties over the past two years.

One Israeli reporter said Palestinian fans held a protest next to him, waving their flags and chanting "go home", in reference to the European and American countries from which Israeli settlers migrated to Palestine over the past decades, prompting the brutal Israeli ethnic cleansing campaigns against the native Palestinians.

The widespread support for the oppressed Palestinian people has been displayed with Palestinian flags being waved inside and outside stadiums despite the fact that Palestine did not qualify for the tournament. Fans from many Arab and Islamic countries have carried Palestinian flags prominently at matches and worn them as capes around their necks. 

Saudi national Khaled al-Omri, who works in the oil industry and was in Qatar to support his home team, told Reuters, “Some "countries in the Arab world are heading towards normalization – but that's because most of them don't have rulers who listen to their people," 

Aseel Sharayah, a 27-year-old Jordanian at the tournament, said he would have also refused to talk to Israeli journalists, though Amman signed a peace deal with the regime in 1994.

"If I did see any of them, there'd be absolutely no time of interaction," said Sharayah, who works for the European-Jordanian Committee in Amman. "Israeli policies are closing the door on any opportunity for more ties between the countries."

An Israeli journalist also claims that security guards were sent to remove him and his filming crew from a Qatari beach. The report says security guards were sent to remove him and his filming crew from a Qatari beach after he asked a local restaurant to film on its premises. "The owner asked to know where we're from...he called for security guards to escort us away after finding out we were Israeli," the journalist said.

The restaurant beach owner also took the journalist's phone, demanding he deletes every photo taken in his restaurant; the reporter claimed "I felt threatened."

One video circulating online shows an Egyptian football fan smiling serenely as an Israeli broadcaster introduces him live on air. Then he leans into the microphone with a message: “Viva Palestine.”

Another clip that has gone viral from the streets of Doha this week shows a group of Lebanese men walking away from a live interview with a reporter after they learned he is Israeli. One shouts over his shoulder: “There is no Israel. It’s Palestine.”

During the opening ceremony before the first match, a phalanx of Qatari men came to the Al Bayt Stadium chanting, “Everyone is welcome,” carrying with them a large Palestinian flag. “We are taking care of people in Palestine, and all Muslim people and Arab countries are holding up Palestinian flags because we’re for them,” the flag bearer told the media.

One Israeli man, who gave only his first name, told the Guardian newspaper “the majority of the masses here do not accept the presence of Israelis.”

"The Iranian team will be in the World Cup and we estimate that tens of thousands of fans will follow it, and there will be other fans from [Persian] Gulf countries that we don’t have diplomatic relations with,” said Lior Haiat, a senior Israeli official.

“Downplay your Israeli presence and Israeli identity for the sake of your personal security,” Haiat added, addressing the Israeli fans.

With the extent of so many other incidents involving Israeli settlers going viral at the tournament, it appears that things are not going as "smoothly" as the Israeli regime had anticipated. 

It also shows the immense show of solidarity with Palestinians and the resentment toward Israeli war crimes and massacres against children. Qataris themselves have a history of support for the Palestinian cause.

More importantly, what has been highlighted in Doha is that despite a few Arab rulers and monarchies normalizing ties with Israel, the people of those countries are against any form of normalization with the regime.

Palestinian flags have been waved in matches involving even Western teams who play Israel, perhaps most notably in the stands at Celtic Park in Scotland. This is despite rules introduced by the UK authorities to ban Palestinian flags inside the stadium in the Scottish city of Glasgow.

At times, entire sections of fans at Glasgow Celtic's stadium displayed Palestinian flags to protest Israeli occupation. During games against Israeli teams, Scottish fans turned whole sections of the stadium into a sea of Palestinian flags, ignoring the official ban.

Demonstrations for Palestine in Scottish football matches have been organized by several groups including one that usually posts on social media platforms the words “Fly the flag for Palestine, for Celtic, for Justice.”

Research conducted by the Qatar-run Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies shows how large majorities across the Arab world have disapproved of and are strongly opposed to any form of the normalization process. 

It found that an overwhelming majority of Arabs disapprove of recognition of Israel by their home countries, with only 6% accepting formal diplomatic recognition.

The study also finds powerful support for the Palestinian cause among ordinary Arabs, who identify the conflict as an Arab issue. “Over three-quarters of the Arab public agree that the Palestinian cause concerns all Arabs, and not the Palestinians alone,” the report says. 

“When asked to elaborate on the reasons for their positions, respondents who were opposed to diplomatic ties between their countries and Israel focused on several factors, such as Israeli racism towards the Palestinians and its colonialist, expansionist policies,” 

The study confirms how much the colonialist past and the Western hegemony over the Arab world following World War I have driven the political sentiments of the Arab and Islamic worlds toward the aggression and expansionist policies Israel is committing today.

Many other polls over the past two years show a similar pattern after the signing of the controversial "Abraham Accords" between Israel and some Arab states.

A poll by The Washington Institute shows the already shaky support for normalization among Arab public opinion has dropped further.

Israelis being shunned at Qatar World Cup

According to a report by The Jerusalem Post, multiple Israelis have claimed to have been met by an atmosphere of hostility and hatred at the World Cup in Qatar, with fans refusing to speak to Israeli journalists, waving Palestinian flags in the background of their videos and yelling at them.

Moav Vardy, KAN’s foreign affairs reporter was yelled at by a Saudi fan who told him, “You are not welcome here. This is Qatar. This is our country. There is only Palestine; no Israel.”

Other videos from Qatar show people immediately walking away when they find out the person interviewing them is Israeli.

In one particular video, N12’s Ohad Hemo begins to interview a group of Lebanese men who then walk away when Hemo tells them he’s Israeli. One of them then turns back and asks Hemo what he’s doing there and then tells him that Israel doesn’t exist.

In other videos, people stand behind various Israeli reporters and raise Palestinian flags.

Israeli soccer legend and KAN World Cup panel member Eli Ohana also faced anti-Israel sentiments when he was on a golf cart being driven by a Qatari policeman. When Ohana said he is Israeli, the officer asked him if he was joking, and Ohana then said he was really Portuguese in order to avoid trouble.

The officer told him that if he had been Israeli, he would have turned the car around and refused to drive him.

Raz Shechnick, Yediot Ahronoth’s reporter for the World Cup, wrote on Twitter about his experiences in Qatar, describing an atmosphere of rejection and hostility from both locals and foreigners attending the games.

“We didn’t want to write these words, we are not the story here. But after 10 days in Doha, we cannot hide what we are going through. We are feeling hated, surrounded by hostility, not welcomed,” the journalist wrote.

He also described an incident in which he and his colleague had lied about their country of origin, saying they were Ecuadorian in order to prevent them from being harassed by fans.

Israeli journalist Dor Hoffman reported that a Qatari taxi driver kicked him out of his cab when he discovered he was Israeli, refusing to take his money.

He later continued to a restaurant on a beach, where he was escorted out of the restaurant by security, with the owner demanding that he delete every photo taken in his restaurant. Hoffman said the owner took his phone and that he felt threatened.

On Saturday, Tunisian fans waved a banner saying “Free Palestine,” despite Qatar and FIFA’s policy of not allowing political protests at matches, a policy that led to the confiscation of rainbow-colored items in support of the LGBTQ community and Iranian anti-regime signs.

Jerusalem resident Michael Janekowitz, a former spokesman for the Jewish Agency who is attending the World Cup, refuted the claims that Israelis were being targeted, and said his experience has been without incident.

“Qatar is very welcoming to the Israeli visitors,” he said.

These Israeli journalists are going with magnifying glasses to find haters of Israel. Most of these Israel-bashers have come to the World Cup from outside of Qatar. They are being provoked by headline-seeking Israeli journalists.

“Qatar has a population of about 3.3 million of whom only 300,000 are Qataris. The other 3 million are mostly workers from mainly India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Uganda, Philippines and Sudan,” he added, saying that was where the antagonism against Israelis was emanating from.

 

Israeli government and fate of Palestinians

It was not a big surprise to wake up on the morning of November 02, 2022 to find out that the Israeli government and Knesset would now be run by a dominant majority of nationalistic religious Jews, Zionists and hard-line politicians who have previously advocated official ethnic-cleansing and shoot-to-kill policies against Palestinians.

One of them is likely to become public security minister, and others will hold key positions in government. Israel has been lurching further rightwards for the past two decades, and this coalition has nearly won previous elections, so it is not that shocking that they are now in power. And yet, one should ask, how different will Israel be after these elections?

With a clear majority in the Knesset and a firm hold on the executive branch, these old-new political elites will continue to do everything that previous governments have done over the past 74 years - but with more zeal, determination and disregard for international condemnation.

It will likely begin by expanding the Judaisation of the occupied West Bank and Greater Jerusalem, and by expanding military activity in what is already on track to be an exceptionally deadly year for Palestinians. Since the start of 2022, Israeli forces and settlers have killed more than 130 Palestinians, including more than 30 children, across the occupied West Bank. 

The new government will surely intensify the provocative visits of Jewish politicians to al-Aqsa Mosque complex. One can also expect further escalation in house demolitions, arrests without trial and a free hand being given to settler vigilantes to wreak destruction at will. 

It is not clear how far these new elites will go in its policy towards the Gaza Strip. Since 2008, Israel’s policy in Gaza has been so callous and inhumane that one finds it difficult to imagine what could be worse than a siege, blockade and occasional brutal air bombardments on a civil society. 

Similarly, it is difficult to predict the new government’s policies towards Palestinians inside Israel. Under the 2018 nation-state law, Israel formalized its status as an apartheid state. One suspects that, as in the occupied West Bank, much of the same and worse can be expected. One will probably see a continued disregard for the rise of criminal activity, along with stricter policies on house expansions in Palestinian rural areas.

One can also expect a continued suppression of any Palestinian collective attempts to express the minority’s national identity - whether through waving Palestinian flags on campuses, commemorating the Nakba, or in other ways expressing the rich cultural heritage of this community. 

In short, any remaining charade of democracy will disappear under this new regime.

Yet, despite the massive shift in global perceptions towards Israel in recent years - manifested in its depiction as an apartheid state by major international human rights groups, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, and the willingness of the International Court of Justice to discuss the decolonization of the occupied West Bank - there seems to be a general reluctance to acknowledge the possibility that there is Jewish racism, as much as there is Christian, Muslim or Buddhist racism.

Suddenly, UN General Assembly Resolution 3379 (passed in 1975 and later revoked), which equates Zionism with racism, no longer seems to be a declaration detached from the realities and complexities in Israel and Palestine. The African and Arab member states that pushed the resolution showed foresight in pinpointing racism as the main danger that Zionism as a state ideology carries with it - not only for Palestinians, but for the region as a whole. 

The disappearance in this election of the Zionist left can also be easily understood if one appreciates the depth and breadth of racism within Israeli society, particularly among youth. As a son of German Jews who escaped German racism in the early 1930s, and now studying it as an adult, I am deeply disturbed at this picture of a society mesmerized by racism and bequeathing it to the next generation.

Will Jewish communities recognize this reality or continue to ignore it? Will governments in the West, and particularly the American administration, acknowledge or disregard this trend? Will the Arab world, which has embarked on a process of normalization with Israel, treat this as irrelevant, as it does not undermine their regimes’ fundamental interests?

One has no answers to these questions. It is actually not necessary to answer these questions, but rather to do everything possible so that one day, they will be answered in a way that saves both Palestinians and Jews from a disastrous fate - and stops Israel from leading all towards a precipice whose edge is now more visible than ever. 

 

 

Election brings Israeli collapse closer

Whichever parties form the government in the aftermath of Israel's unprecedented fifth election in less than four years, these just cannot whitewash the reality that the political deadlock in Israel is getting more complicated. Coupled with its genocidal approach toward Palestinians, this indicates that the Zionist regime’s demise may be near.

Exit polls suggested the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing several corruption charges with one trial alone, hearing from over 300 witnesses, is taking the lead with a very narrow majority. A final result is not expected until later in the week.

Israel's longest-serving premier is poised to form government with rightwing extremist religious Zionist party, which may spell defeat for his rival war criminal Yair Lapid. But Israeli elections tend to take weeks of negotiations for a cabinet formation and the chances of another political stalemate triggering yet another election are high. Many exhausted Israelis are already bracing for a sixth election next year.

It reflects the state of the Israeli internal and political crises that has existed for years, with the intensification of competition and the sharp polarization between the camp of Netanyahu and the camp opposed to him. This is accompanied by the internal divisions of the Israeli parties alongside settlers who are illegally squatting on people's indigenous land.

Should an Israeli war cabinet be formed by a difference of one vote, it will be another weak ruling regime that can collapse at any moment, as was the case during the Lapid era when it took only one cabinet member to withdraw from the ruling system to fall apart.

Recent Israeli opinion polls show how the trend of Israeli society is heading further to the extreme far-right. This means more Palestinian ethnic cleansing efforts in the face of a growing armed resistance movement in the occupied West Bank.

But as has been seen before the Netanyahu camp may struggle to form a cabinet and other smaller parties have not decided on supporting either Netanyahu or Lapid, which keeps the Israeli political scene in a state of instability. It has been proven difficult for one of the two camps to obtain an absolute majority to resolve the political crisis that has been in place for years.

Netanyahu is seeking the surging power of the far-right Itamar Ben-Gvir to bring him back to power. The so-called "lawmaker", as the Western press like to refer to him, casted his vote in one of the many West Bank settlements where he squats on. 

Ben-Gvir is a reflection of how much more authoritarian the occupying regime has become. His regular hate speech against the Palestinians is a stain on the regime's Western backers.

Whatever results the Israeli political scene produces in this election, any cabinet that may be formed will remain one that is brutal to the Palestinian people and will continue to deny them their most basic human rights.

This hostility to the Palestinians, the murder of civilians including children, demolition of homes, expansion of illegal settlements extends to the settlers’ crimes of desecrating holy sites most important of which is the flashpoint al-Aqsa Mosque.

This is the dire Israeli reality that works to reproduce more and more far-right extremism towards the Palestinians with every new election.

Another issue is that the electoral alliances of the two competing camps will not be able to offer anything new to the Israeli voter, and the deep political division and sharp polarization between two competing racist camps will continue to undermine the longevity of any Israeli cabinet that can be formed. The Israeli political system will remain in a state of instability and will continue to suffer.

The cost of living has been a hot issue in this election as Israelis, having long endured high prices, are feeling the pinch even more amid economic turmoil linked to the Ukraine war.

Another realistic scenario, which is strongly possible, is that if neither camp is able to form a cabinet, the Israelis are likely to return to the polls for the sixth time after only six months, in light of a state of severe polarization and political instability. It is a real political nightmare that may fall upon the regime once more.

There are both internal and external challenges to the election. On the foreign front, one of the most prominent challenges that constitutes a great concern for Israel and disturbs all its political and security levels, from its extreme right to its extreme left, is the Islamic Republic of Iran in particular, which is a top priority in Israeli foreign policy, and is an obstacle in the face of all parties that struggle for power and call for a military strike on Iran to undermine its influence in the region, yet are unable to do so.

This approach collides with the calculations of the US administration, which does not like the hawkish Netanyahu to return to the political scene. Washington is more in favor of a diplomatic solution when it comes to the Iran nuclear deal, knowing a military option of toppling the Islamic Republic on behalf of the Zionist lobby is off the cards. 

Israel's strongest ally, the United States is facing its own crisis of losing its hegemony over the region as a result of Russia and China's influence in West Asia that could end the state of American control and rule in the region. At the end of the day, no matter how close the American President Joe Biden is to "BiBi", American mentality takes precedence over the interests of Israel, at times when US hegemony is at risk.

This was reflected in the OPEC Plus decision to slash its oil production target over US objections, drawing anger from Washington which accused the organization of siding with Russia. Reports of Saudi Arabia being in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in the yuan currency instead of dollar suggest the regional allies of the US are becoming less trustworthy of Washington than before.

The end of American hegemony in West Asia spells the end of the Israeli apartheid regime. Internally, there are basic challenges that face any Israeli cabinet arising from the latest election that pose many difficult dilemmas. Aside from the economic insecurity there is, more importantly, the personal security of the Israelis, and the state of internal instability experienced by the Israeli society, which is dominated by bribery, corruption, organized crime, and the inaction of the judiciary. These are challenges that the Israeli rulers have been unable to find a solution to.

The most prominent and latest problem facing Israel at this stage is the security challenge in the occupied West Bank after the growth of the Palestinian resistance and the emergence of new military formations in the West Bank cities such as the Jenin Brigade, the Lion's Den Brigade and others, and their progress in carrying out successful and sophisticated retaliatory operations against occupation soldiers and settlers have imposed new equations on the military occupation.

Around 30 Palestinians and three Israelis were killed across the occupied West Bank in October alone. Scores of others have been injured from both sides.

In the face of increased insecurity, Israel stands bewildered and helpless and has witnessed a catastrophic failure, which has created an insecure environment, from which no weak or fragile future cabinet will be able to find a solution.

This election may do nothing to end Israel's brutal ethnic cleansing against the Palestinians, but the growing strength of the resistance will deal heavy blows to the future of the apartheid regime.

Courtesy: The Tehran Times

 

Growing Arab Israel Military alliance and Iranian Response

Lately, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi announced preparations for a potential upcoming military operation, foreshadowing a possible move against Iran.

Kochavi’s announcement came shortly after Israel and Foreign Ministers of four Arab nations — Morocco, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain — along with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, met at the Negev Summit in the Israeli desert to lay the foundation for a strategic military alliance to deter "Iran and its associated militias," as the then Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid put it.

The conflict between Iran and other regional states, including both Israel and Arab nations, spans over four decades. The battle for dominance in the Middle East began in 1979 with the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

The former supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, declared Iran to be the legitimate nation of Islam, and began a campaign to export the revolution, as he believed it should be used as a model for other nations in the region. He thought that, through mass mobilization, Islamic values would triumph over corruption, repression, and Western influence.

The Islamic Republic believed that it could destabilize the region and rebuild it in its image. "Our revolution will not win unless it is exported," said Abolhassan Banisadr, the Islamic Republic’s first president.

 "We are going to create a new order in which deprived people will not always be deprived," he stated, referring to Shi’a Muslims. The new regime used this cause as a veneer for its efforts to further its ideological, geopolitical, and economic ambitions.

In response to Iranian expansionism, six Persian Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar — formed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, along with other Gulf states, supported Iraq's Saddam Hussein in a full-scale invasion of Iran in late 1980, driving Iran and Arab nations further apart. 

Iran has successfully kept this growing regional conflict outside its borders by starting proxies in weaker states situated between it and its rivals. Iran has been accused of meddling in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen's domestic affairs and helping pro-Iranian actors gain or remain in power.

The result has been to undermine the regional order, and the Middle East is now home to several failing states, civil wars, and major humanitarian crises.

In addition, the Islamic Republic's belligerent expansionism has pushed Arab nations and Israel closer to each other, slowly at first but much more rapidly in recent years. 

Iran presents a substantial military threat

Tehran’s missile and drone capabilities exceed those of nearly all of its regional adversaries and it has embraced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), significantly enhancing its air superiority. Former CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. warned that, thanks to Iran's drone program, the US is "operating without complete air superiority” for the first time since the Korean War.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shares these capabilities with Iranian-backed militias — including Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the Houthis — to be used in proxy wars or in attacks within the borders of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. 

In recent years, and especially since the signing of the Abraham Accords in late 2020, Israel has proven to be a viable ally for Arab nations facing the threat of Iran.

In mid-February 2022, Israeli forces carried out a devastating attack on an airbase in western Iran, destroying hundreds of Iranian drones. The Times of Israel reported that Israel is cooperating with Middle East allies to build a “joint defense system” to counter Iranian missiles and drones.

Like the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) proposed by the Trump administration, the alliance will be modeled after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The strategic alliance will focus on shared air defenses and pave the way for sharing intelligence and military operational plans to prevent attacks. 

Information that comes out of Tehran is strictly controlled; nevertheless, there are other sources from which we can learn about Iran's response to this new alliance.

In 2018, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused Saudi leaders of treason against the world of Islam for cooperating with the U.S. and Israel. Even though Iran has never declared war on Saudi Arabia, there have been hundreds of Houthi attacks on the kingdom, striking oil facilities and civilian areas. Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy has condemned the Islamic Republic for enabling and arming the Houthis. While Iran tries to mask its actions against other Muslim nations, it does not shy away from making its intentions with Israel clear has claimed that Israel will not exist in 25 year.

In addition, any association with Israel will get a country in trouble with the IRGC. Hossein Salami, the IRGC’s commander-in-chief, sees the new Arab-Israeli alliance as a direct threat to the IRGC's security, since it aims to create a new regional order. It would also, for the first time, give Israel a foothold in the Persian Gulf. Salami asked the GCC nations to reconsider their alliance and warned them that cooperation with Israel would lead to harsh consequences. He reiterated the IRGC forces’ combat readiness in various strategic positions in the Persian Gulf. 

IRGC-linked media outlets, such as Tasnim and Fars, have pushed a similar narrative. Some have added that the Israeli-Arab NATO-style regional alliance is a continuation of former President Donald Trump's Iran policy. Hossein Dalirian, a former editor of Fars turned social media influencer, has repeatedly supported Iran-backed Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and Yemen and even mocked the IDF’s inability to prevent the killing of five Israeli civilians in a recent terror attack.

As for Iranian academics’ perspectives, Islamic Azad University professor Mehdi Motaharnia expressed that the formation of the Arab-Israeli coalition against Iran is a response to the recent attacks carried out by Iran's proxies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In addition, he says that the prospect of the Biden administration withdrawing the IRGC from the list of foreign terrorist groups has given impetus to the creation of an Arab-Israeli NATO. Mehdi writes, "Israel is trying to redefine the security, military, political, diplomatic, economic, commercial, and even social" structure of the region to coexist with the Arab world and confront Iran.

Even though the Arab-Israeli alliance is an existential threat to the Iranian regime, it is unlikely that the regime will abandon its foundational ideologies, as doing so would delegitimize its cause. 

Moreover, Khamenei and the IRGC's expansionist agenda overshadows other perspectives within Iran, including that of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 2019, then-Iranian President Hassan Rouhani unveiled a plan to bring security, peace, stability, and progress in the Persian Gulf, calling it the Coalition for Hope. It was the last attempt at uniting Iran and the GCC states. Unfortunately, the coalition failed to gain traction among the GCC states, as distrust between the two sides runs deep. Since then, the Islamic Republic has done little to restore trust and has instead doubled down on its antagonistic policies.

Khamenei and Salami's tone suggests that Iran's future foreign policy will be more of the same. If Khamenei, the IRGC, and their associated militias continue to undermine their own Foreign Ministry’s efforts to improve relations with neighboring nations, Iran will remain isolated and surrounded by enemies. Ironically, Iran’s strong-man foreign policy will fuel the alliance between the regional rivals that most threatens its security. Iran’s incendiary rhetoric and violent interference have forced a marriage of convenience between Israel and Arab nations that likely otherwise would not come together.

 

 

Arab public opinion turning against normalization with Israel

A recent poll by an American think tank has confirmed what every independent expert knows: Arab public opinion does not support the controversial policy of normalization between Israel and Arab states.

Almost two years into the signing of the controversial Abraham Accords between Israel and some Arab states, the already shaky support for normalization among Arab public opinion has dropped further, a poll by The Washington Institute showed. 

“The wave of Arab countries officially normalizing relations with Israel over the past several years stands in contrast with a growing lack of public support for the Abraham Accords in the Persian Gulf,” the Institute said, noting that those who favorably view normalization with Israel are now a “minority” in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

It added, “TWI polling from March 2022 demonstrates that more than two thirds of citizens in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and UAE view the Abraham Accords unfavorably less than two years out.”

The polling stands in contrast to another one from November 2020, in which some percentage of Emiratis, Bahrainis, and Saudis showed relative optimism about normalization.

While in November 2020, nearly 40 percent of Saudis and Qataris supported the Accords, support for these agreements is now hovering between 19% to 25% in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE, according to the new polling. 

The number of those in Lebanon viewing the Abraham Accords “very negative” has increased from 41% in November 2020 to 66% this March, while support in Egypt has dropped from about a quarter to 13%.

Attitudes toward sub-state business and sports relations with Israel have also been remarkable in the Persian Gulf Arab countries. A further 50% of Saudis and 47% of Emiratis strongly disagreed with allowing such ties. With the exception of Kuwait, disapproval rates of allowing business or sports ties with Israelis now edge closer to half (Bahrain – 58%, KSA – 60%, UAE – 55%), the Institute said. 94% of Kuwaitis and 93% of Lebanese surveyed disagreed with the notion—and a further 77% of Lebanese and 88% of Kuwaitis strongly rejected it.

The figures from the poll bear witness to a widely held belief that ordinary Arabs do not support their leaders in establishing ties with Israel. The Abraham Accords might have succeeded in generating a limited base of support in countries that normalized ties with Israel, but they absolutely failed to bring about a drastic change in Arab public opinion. And even that limited base is now evaporating.

The polling also gives substance to the remarks by Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, in his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

In the meeting, Ayatollah Khamenei described the Palestinian cause as being the number one issue in the world of Islam. “Despite certain governments’ interest in the Zionist regime, nations totally oppose this usurper,” he noted. 

Independent polls confirmed that Arabs do not support normalization with Israel. And even in 2020, most polls evinced that the majority of Arabs view normalization unfavorably. A poll conducted in October 2020 by the Arab Center of Research and Policy Studies showed an unequivocal Arab opposition to normalization. It was conducted in 13 Arab countries with 28,000 respondents. The polling showed that 88% of Arabs refused the idea of recognizing Israel.

US-Israel joint declaration against Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and US President Joe Biden signed a joint declaration on Thursday reaffirming the two nations' partnership and cooperation when it comes to Iran, among other topics that they have joint interests in.

The declaration reiterated the US commitment to ensuring that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon and that it is "prepared to use all elements of its national power to ensure that outcome."

The US also pledged to continue to work with partner nations to stop Iran's attempts to destabilize the region both directly and through proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Memorandum of Understanding

The declaration also referred to the US$38 billion MoU on security assistance supplied to Israel by the US that has been signed over the last few decades by consecutive American administrations.

The declaration expressed America's conviction to add a follow-up MoU to "address emerging threats and new realities."

Jerusalem expressed its appreciation of Washington's assistance, and the two countries expressed enthusiasm for moving forward with a close defense partnership.

Abraham Accords

Israel thanked the US for its support regarding the Abraham Accords, and the two allies reiterated the importance of the Negev Forum that met last month in Bahrain. 

The declaration expressed the commitment of the US to the effort of expanding the accords with Saudi Arabia in Biden's upcoming visit over the weekend as well as including further Arab and Muslim countries.

Anti-Israel and antisemitic attacks

The two nations reaffirmed their dedication to fighting against efforts to boycott and delegitimize Israel as well as efforts to unfairly single it out in organizations such as the United Nations and the International Criminal Court.

The declaration also committed to fighting against antisemitism, with the US reiterating its pride of standing "with the Jewish and democratic State of Israel."

Israeli-Palestinian Relations

Regarding the tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, both nations condemned the series of terror attacks in recent months and affirmed "the need to confront radical forces... seeking to inflame tension and instigate violence and terrorism."

Biden reaffirmed his support for a two-state solution and expressed America's readiness to work with Israel and the Palestinian Authority to make a peaceful solution to the tensions possible. 

 

Israel signs free trade deal with UAE, first-ever with an Arab state

Israel entered its first-ever free trade agreement with an Arab state, when Economy Minister Orna Barbivai signed the deal with her counterpart in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday.

Ambassador to the UAE Amir Hayek in a few words announced the signing of the agreement on twitter, tweeting Done! in response to a previous tweet on the topic.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett praised the FTA as historic and the fastest to be signed in Israel's history. He thanked Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohamed Bin Zayed for accelerating the process.

"We are continuing to warm the peace between the countries," Bennett tweeted.

On Monday, Barbivai said her visit to Dubai, “It is of strategic importance to the economic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.”

"Together we will remove barriers and promote comprehensive trade and new technologies," she added. 

Israel and the UAE established full diplomatic relations in August 2020, in what was called the Abraham Accords. Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco followed soon after.

Israel has nineteen free agreements, including the one with the UAE. Israel also has a more limited free-trade agreement with Jordan, but the new deal with the UAE is much broader and is similar to those with the United States and with the European Union.

The free trade agreement is the UAE’s second, following one with India earlier this year.

This agreement covers 96% of the trade between Israel and the UAE, which was recorded last year at US$885 million.

That is more than double Israel's US$330 million in trade with Egypt in 2021, even though the two countries have had a peace agreement since 1979.

According to the Economy and Industry Ministry, the level of trade in 2020 was reported at US$120 million and at US$ one million in 2010. 

The FTA signing proceeded as planned, even though the UAE criticized Israel a day earlier for allowing Jews to visit the Temple Mount, Judaism's holiest site.

"The UAE today strongly condemned the storming of Al Aqsa Mosque courtyard by extremist settlers under the protection of Israeli forces," a statement by the Emirati Foreign Ministry read, calling on Israel "to take responsibility for reducing escalation and ending all attacks and practices that lead to the continuation of tensions."

There was no documentation of violence by Jews or Israelis on the Temple Mount this week, though some did pray at the site in contravention of the rules for Jewish visitors. Some Muslims threw rocks at visitors and police from the Al Aqsa Mosque.

The statement came a day after the annual Jerusalem Day flag march through the Old City, which was mostly peaceful, though some Jews and Muslims chanted calls for violence and some minor clashes, leading to about 50 arrests.

 

Need to understand unique identities of diverse neighborhoods of Jerusalem

According to a report in The Jerusalem Post, in the summer of 2020, JIPR researcher Tehila Bigman set out to examine the nature of interactions in Jerusalem's mixed neighborhoods. Residents from nine (mixed and separated) Jerusalem neighborhoods participated in the study.

Through questionnaires, interviews and observations, the researcher developed a picture of the residents’ perspective, as well as their perception of the challenges and opportunities inherent in living in mixed neighborhoods.

The study found that in order to create living spaces that provide a sense of security for all residents, it is important to establish anchors of identity for each of the resident population groups, but it is not necessary to create separate residential neighborhoods.

More than 90% of the residents stated that they would feel comfortable in their residential area as long as they could receive services adapted to their religious identification and feel they belong to a large enough group.

A smaller percentage indicated that it is important to them that the neighborhood’s character overlap with their own religious identification or that most of the population is like them.

As to the anchors, when participants were asked, “Which institutions or services are most important for you to have in the neighborhood?” the most prevalent answers among Haredi respondents were a synagogue (96%) and a mikveh (75%).

The most prevalent answers among religiously observant respondents were a synagogue (71%) and parks or playgrounds (59%).

The most prevalent answers among secular respondents were a shopping center (62%) and a library (57%).

Each of the sectors ranked “a suitable education system” third.

Finally, the findings point to a significant gap between what residents perceive as personally beneficial and what they perceive as beneficial to Jerusalem.

About 30% of the participants disagreed with the statement, “Residing near people like me improves the quality of life for me / my children.”

As to benefits for the city, about half of the participants (49%) agreed that the quality of life in Jerusalem would improve if people resided near others who differ from them.

In only a few decades, the sectorial division within Israel will resemble the current division within Jerusalem, according to demographic forecasts.

Accordingly, Jerusalem can play a key role in providing models for the cooperative management of private and public spaces alike.

If Jerusalem and Jerusalemites succeed in managing shared spaces constructively, they will be offering hope for cooperative management across Israel.

 

 

Abu Dhabi to invest US$10 billion in Israel

The biggest news from Israeli President Isaac Herzog's visit to the United Arab Emirates was not to do with diplomacy or defense but the huge amount Abu Dhabi plans to invest in Israel.

According to the sources privy to the details, UAE Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed has decided to unfreeze US$10 billion in Israeli companies that he had promised to former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The UAE's large sovereign funds will divide the investments between them, including the ADIA Fund and the Mubadala Fund, although the first fund that will enter the Israeli market is the ADG (Abu Dhabi Growth) Fund, part of the ADQ Group. This fund plans investing US$200 million in Israeli companies during the year 2022, and a similar sum each year over 10 years.

A senior source, Abu Dhabi has been waiting patiently for the Israeli political scene to stabilize before renewing the process of fulfilling bin Zayed's promise. Herzog's visit, personal, diplomatic but not political, meant that he was the right person at the right time to officially initiate the investment process.

ADG Fund Chairman Faris Mohammed Al Mazrouei met with several members of the small Israeli delegation that accompanied President Herzog. At meetings in Abu Dhabi, the Israelis and Emiratis spoke about the mechanisms for the investment and how organizations like the Manufacturers Association of Israel and the Israel Export Institute would help direct the investments.

Another important link in the chain will be Start-Up National Central, which in recent years has specialized in matching up Israeli startups with investors. Start-Up National Central CEO Avi Hasson, who traveled to the UAE as part of President Herzog's delegation, informed that the unfreezing of the US$10 billion by the UAE for investment in Israel was highly significant for both the countries. He said that the Emirati use the investment funds as a strategic tool and are expressing through the funds the importance with which they see relations with Israel.

Hasson thinks that Israel is perceived by the Emirati as a symbol of innovation and progress due to the companies located here, and therefore it represents a good investment. "This is not philanthropy or a political investment fund," he said. "The Emirati are seeking profits from their investments. We do not have a commercial agenda but extensive knowhow of the abilities in the advanced technology sector and the ability to connect Israeli companies with the precise needs of investors."

Hasson stressed there has to be a match between the Israeli ‘here and now’ approach and the slower UAE approach of first building trust through a genuine connection between the parties and only then moving forward.

Iran terms holding of Israeli cabinet meeting in Golan Heights provocative

Iranian Foreign Ministry has denounced the provocative move of the Israeli regime to hold a cabinet meeting in the occupied Golan Heights that belongs to Syria.

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh described this act as “provocative”, stressing that the occupied Golan Heights is an integral part of the Arab Republic of Syria in line with numerous United Nations Resolutions, especially UN Security Council Resolution 497.

Khatibzadeh added the UN General Assembly has underlined this “undeniable reality” every year that the Golan Heights is part of the Syrian territory.

Settlement expansions and an increase in the number of migrant in the occupied Golan Heights cannot change this reality, he said, adding Israeli settlers should understand that they cannot remain in occupied territories forever, the Foreign Ministry reported at its website.

He also reaffirmed the Islamic Republic’s solidarity with as well as its unwavering and iron-clad support for the Arab Republic of Syria in this regard.

On December 26, the cabinet of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett voted in favor of a plan that aims to build 7,300 settler homes in Golan over a five-year period. The decision was taken during the cabinet meeting in Golan.

Israel aims to attract roughly 23,000 new Jew settlers to the area occupied during the Six Day War in 1967.

Israel annexed the territory on December 14, 1981, in a move not recognized by the international community.

 

Israeli military readying Plan B to counter Iran

After a five-month pause in talks between the United States and Iran is set to resume on Monday, with the other parties to the nuclear deal mediating in hope of reestablishing an agreement to curb the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions.

The defense establishment does not see a war breaking out with Iran or its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, but the IDF has been keeping an eye on the North and on the South. It held large-scale exercises in the North in October and November, and there are plans to hold 50% more drills next year than in 2020, and 30% more than in 2021.

The increased exercises set for 2022 follows years of stagnation, and will be the largest training operation in five years, especially for reserve forces. Following the signing of the Abraham Accords, the IDF has also begun conducting drills with Gulf Arab states.

In a subtle message to Iran, Israel took part in a multilateral maritime security drill in the Red Sea with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and US Naval Forces Central Command’s (NAVCENT).

The drill in early November was the first of its kind, and showed what kind of naval coalition Israel might join should there be military action against Iran.

“It is exciting to see US forces training with regional partners to enhance our collective maritime security capabilities,” V-Adm. Brad Cooper, Commander of NAVCENT, US 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces said. “Maritime collaboration helps safeguard freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade, which are essential to regional security and stability.”

There are also hints of an aerial coalition that could come together. Israeli jets recently escorted a B-1B strategic heavy bomber and KC-10 re-fuelers on their way to the Gulf. Jets from Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia also escorted those planes while flying through their respective airspace.

Israel’s Blue Flag air drills, which become more popular as the years go on, also provide a clue as to what other countries could fly alongside Israel when push comes to shove.

This year’s Blue Flag saw aircraft from Germany (six Eurofighters), Italy (five F-35 jets and five G550 planes), Britain (six Eurofighters), France (four Raphale jets), India (five Mirage jets), Greece (four F-16 jets), and the US (six F-16 CJ jets) take part.

During the drill, forces practiced aerial battle as well as surface-to-air battle scenarios, advanced surface-to-air missiles combat outlines in enemy territory, and more.

The exercise focused on “broadening and enhancing the operational capabilities of the participating forces,” with a focus on air-to-air and air-to-ground attacks, as well as evading ground-based air defense systems “and various operational scenarios in enemy territory,” the army said at the time of the drill.

While Israel has never joined a regional military coalition, Marom Division commander Col. Aviran Lerer told The Jerusalem Post that there could be a time that Jerusalem might be part of such a partnership.

Lerer, who spoke to The Post after a two-week drill with 500 troops from NAVCENT’s 51/5th Marine Expeditionary Brigade, said that the IDF has to be ready to fight with other troops.

The drill, he said, was to strengthen ties with Israel’s main ally and the Marines who “are a significant force in the US military with whom we have a lot of shared interests. The United States always fights as a coalition, and it could be that will be part of a future coalition. We, as an army, have to do everything we can to be ready for a future conflict; we see the Americans as a strategic ally, and there could be a time when we will work and fight together.”

While Israel’s diplomats are working around the clock to influence the United States, the UK and France on the Iran talks, Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that the “best-case scenario” would be a deal that not only focuses on uranium enrichment but also on Tehran’s ballistic missile program and its regional hostility.

“Concerning Iran, we must influence our partners and have ongoing discussion with them,” Gantz said. “Our other obligation is to build a military force, which is an important issue by itself. I ordered the military to improve its force build-up, in parallel to our discussions with our strategic partners.”

First public Israeli flight lands in Saudi Arabia

According to The Jerusalem Post an Israeli private jet landed in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday morning, marking the first time a public flight from Israel has ever landed in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The news comes just a day after the first flight from Saudi Arabia landed in Israel, as an Emirati 737 Royal Jet landed in Ben-Gurion airport Monday evening.

This is the latest among improving regional ties for Israel, agreements to normalize ties with four nations — UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan — have been realized since the 2020 Abraham Accords.

While there remain no commercial flights between Saudi Arabia and Israel, as the two states share no official relations, the flights are a considerable advancement in Saudi-Israeli relations, as both nations finally opened their airspaces to each other just last year.

Surrounded by nations that have clashed with Israel in the past, free air travel is not something that is taken for granted in Israel.

Along the 2020 normalization of ties with Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and the UAE was the opening of airspaces to Israeli flights, along with announcements of direct flights to Dubai, Morocco, and Bahrain.

Prior to the opening of Saudi airspace, El Al’s planes had to follow a long, winding route to Mumbai in order to avoid Saudi airspace, adding roughly two hours to the trip from Tel Aviv and putting the Israeli carrier at a huge disadvantage to competitors, who are allowed to fly direct.

Similar examples make flights to some locales out of Ben-Gurion difficult to navigate and potentially dangerous.

Airspace has always been a point of contention amongst Israel and its adversaries. The following countries continue to ban both direct flights and overflying traffic to/from Israel: Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, Brunei, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen.

Ayatollah Khamenei urges reversal of progress in Arab Israeli relations

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that the Arab nations who have improved ties with Israel have “sinned” and must reverse course. Four nations, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, agreed to normalize ties in 2020 under the “Abraham Accords” .

This led to Israel’s first treaties with Arab nations since reaching an agreement with Jordan in 1994. Jordan and Egypt were the only Arab nations to have existing diplomatic ties with Israel before the 2020 agreements.

“Some governments have unfortunately made big errors and have sinned in normalizing their relations with the usurping and oppressive Zionist regime,” Khamenei said. “It is an act against Islamic unity; they must return from this path and make up for this big mistake.”

Iran has positioned itself as a strong defender of the Palestinian cause since Ayatollah Khameini took power in the midst of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “If the unity of Muslims is achieved, the Palestinian question would definitely be resolved in the best fashion,” Khamenei said.

Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate as the former builds out its nuclear program, which Israel accuses of being a nuclear weapons program designed to inflict as much harm as possible. Iran has repeatedly accused Israel of sabotaging and targeting its nuclear facilities.

In response to last Monday’s reports that NIS 5 billion had been approved to prepare the military for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkhani pledged to inflict “many billions of dollars” worth of damage if Israel strikes Tehran’s nuclear program.

Biden administration shows little progress with Abraham Accords on first anniversary

According to certain reports Biden administration has made little progress in advancing normalization agreements between Israel and Arab and Muslim-majority countries more than one year since they were first established under the Trump administration.

Supporters of the agreements, ‘The Abraham Accords’ say President Joe Biden is missing a key opportunity on an issue that enjoys rare bipartisan support in a polarized and hyper-partisan Congress.

They add that the President can reap tangible successes in the Middle East, including on improving conditions for Palestinians, while taking ownership of a Trump foreign policy success.

The stalled progress is likely to give ammo to Republicans ahead of the 2022 and 2024 elections, who seek to skewer the Biden administration over its policy of rapprochement with Iran and reestablishing ties with the Palestinians that were severed under Trump.

Biden administration has also come under fire for appearing to fail to defend Kurdish Iraqis who were condemned, and reportedly physically threatened, for calling to normalize ties with Israel.

“It is beyond unexplainable that the Biden administration is distancing America from this noble effort of the Iraqi people to normalize relations with Israel. We should pray for their efforts, not shun them,” former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted in response to a statement by the US-led coalition to defeat ISIS that denied knowledge of the calls for normalization.

Pompeo, one of the architects of the accords and a potential 2024 Republican presidential candidate, will be in Jerusalem next week to celebrate their one-year anniversary with Israeli officials. 

Also in attendance will be Trump's son-in-law and former special adviser Jared Kushner, who was integral in shaping the deal, along with former US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, who will be inaugurating the “Friedman Center for Peace through Strength” to coincide with the celebrations.

The Abraham Accords were first announced in August 2020 as a breakthrough in normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, marking the first Arab country to establish relations with Israel in more than two decades, since Jordan in 1994.

Bahrain was the second country to sign on to the deals followed by pronouncements from Sudan and Morocco to deepen ties with Israel.

“I have to say that it exceeded my expectations,” Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute who served as an adviser on Palestinian negotiations between 1999 and 2001, said of the success of the accords.   

“Relations are going strong, embassies are being formally established, economic relations are just only growing … certainly we’re seeing a momentum," he added.

While the trigger for the UAE recognizing Israel was an effort to preserve Palestinian national aspirations — securing a commitment by Israel to halt plans for annexation green-lighted by the Trump administration — al-Omari said that the deepening ties with Abu Dhabi and the subsequent agreements with Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco show how far the Palestinian issue has fallen from the agenda of Arab and Muslim countries.

“In the end it’s invalidated the old paradigm that Israeli peace with the Arabs has to go first with the Palestinian track. These are all transformations,” he said.

Yet including issues related to the Palestinians with prospective Abraham Accord partners could present an opportunity for the Biden administration to secure a key signatory like Saudi Arabia, and move forward its commitments to improving the situation for Palestinians in general, said Michael Koplow, Policy Director of the Israel Policy Forum, a research and policy advocacy organization.

Saudi Arabia, which the Trump administration touted as being close to signing on to the accords, has resisted so far, insisting that normalization with Israel is contingent on Palestinian statehood.

“If countries that normalize with Israel keep this in mind,” Koplow continued. “To say to Israelis, ‘listen there are things [with the Palestinians] that make it harder for us to normalize, and if you stop some of these things, then more agreements can be had’ — that’s a model that we’ve seen work once already and I think it's likely to keep on going.”

The Israel Relations Normalization Act of 2021, sponsored by Rep. Brad Schneider in the House and Sen. Rob Portman in the Senate, calls for the State Department to assess how the Abraham Accords “advance prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.”

“The Biden administration has been tepid — to be charitable — on moving forward,” Koplow said. “One challenge is that the model that the Trump administration developed is simply not wise for the United States.”

The Trump administration came under intense scrutiny by both Republicans and Democrats over the basis of the agreements reached with the UAE, Sudan and Morocco.

This included selling F-35 advanced fighter jets and other military sales to Abu Dhabi, removing Sudan from the State Sponsor of Terrorism List, and recognizing Morocco’s claim to the contested territory of Western Sahara.

While the Biden team has allowed the F-35 sale to proceed, it has done little to address the status of Western Sahara for Morocco, or Sudan’s role in the Abraham Accords, which has yet to officially sign the agreement.

While Biden has put forth the possibility of a Washington visit for Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok — raised during a call with national security adviser Jake Sullivan — a high level Sudanese diplomat said they are waiting for the official invitation.

Bonnie Glick, who served as Deputy Administrator of the US Agency for International Development during the Trump administration, called finalizing Sudan’s participation as a “low-hanging-fruit opportunity to have an impact on a Muslim country that needs our help.”

“Sudan probably took the biggest risk of any country that’s signed on to the accords. This is a brand-new government that came to power by toppling an Islamist autocracy,” she said.

“You have a military government that’s trying to transition to a civilian government, and they took a calculated risk and said, ‘We’re going to sign the Abraham Accords.’ And since the Biden administration came in, there has been silence on the Sudan component in particular.”

Biden officials say they are engaged in efforts to expand the accords by adding in new countries. Secretary of State Antony Blinken last month hosted a Zoom call with his counterparts in Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco celebrating the one-year anniversary of the accords.

“This administration will continue to build on the successful efforts of the last administration to keep normalization marching forward,” Blinken said.

But al-Omari, of the Washington Institute, criticized this event as “muted.”

“It is a fact that the Biden administration has not been, very robustly, involved in building on these accords,” he said.

Despite the absence of the Biden administration, ties are deepening between Israel and Gulf states, largely an outgrowth of more than a decade of secret ties over concerns of Iran’s ambitions in the region and, following normalization, excitement over increased economic opportunities and security initiatives.

Israel is touting as a landmark achievement its pavilion in Dubai at the World Expo; direct flights and exchanges of hundreds of thousands of its citizens with the UAE; and raising the possibility that Oman could be the next country to join the accords.

“We have, I believe, created a change of dynamics and a change of attitude in the Middle East and in the region,” Eliav Benjamin, Head of the Bureau of the Middle East and Peace Process Division at the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a briefing with reporters Wednesday.

This paradigm shift between Israel and its neighbors, Benjamin continued, is about “being much more pragmatic and practical on dealing with issues that we have at hand.”