Israeli Grudge: Saudi-Iran deal destroys defense wall against Iran

A credible military threat against Iran coupled with a tough Western diplomatic stance is the best way to weaken the impact of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh, a senior Israeli official told reporters over the weekend.

The official spoke in response to the Iranian-Saudi Arabian deal reached to reestablish relations after years of hostility that had threatened stability and security in the Gulf and helped fuel conflicts in the Middle East from Yemen to Syria.

Israeli politicians immediately expressed concern as the move appeared to throw a monkey wrench in one of Netanyahu’s new government’s chief policy initiatives – to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia.

Israel has presumed that the necessity of creating a Gulf alliance between Israel and its Arab partners against Iran would help provide an incentive for the establishment of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and the Jewish state.

Former Prime Ministers Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett immediately warned of its implications for Israel’s strategy against Iran as they used the moment to attack Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in Italy when news of the deal broke.

The rapprochement signals the collapse of the regional defense wall that we started building against Iran, Lapid said, adding that it reflects the complete and dangerous failure of the Israeli government’s foreign policy.

 “This is what happens when one deals with legal insanity all day instead of doing one’s job against Iran and strengthening relations with the United States,” Lapid said.

The senior Israeli official, however, blamed the governments of Lapid and Bennett for the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement, noting that talks toward the agreement had begun already last year when they were in power.

Negotiations for this deal started about a year ago, with a round of at least five meetings, including the arrival of senior Saudi officials in Iran” and Iranian visits to Saudi Arabia in return, the official said.

It’s possible that at the time the Saudis felt that the Israeli stand on Iran was not strong enough, the official speculated.

The Saudis felt that the West’s position towards Iran was weak, particularly in the aftermath of Tehran’s armed drone attack against Saudi oil fields coupled with talks to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Israeli official explained.

Western countries have toughened their positions against Iran, but it’s still not strong enough, the official said.

An Israeli official told Iran International that Tehran’s agreement with Riyadh was not a surprise and that Israel did not believe the deal impacted its pursuit of normalizing ties with Riyadh.

Bennett, however, called the news of the renewed Iran-Saudi alliance a serious and dangerous development for Israel and a political victory for Iran.

“This delivers a fatal blow to efforts to build a regional coalition against Iran,” said Bennett.

He charged that it was a mark of the resounding failure of the Netanyahu government and stems from a combination of political neglect with the country’s general weakness and internal conflict.

“Countries in the world and the region are watching Israel in turmoil over the dysfunctional government that is engaged in systematic self-destruction,” Bennett said, adding in this case one of those countries chose a side.

Every day of this government’s “existence endangers the State of Israel,” Bennett stated.

“We need a broad national emergency government, which will work to repair the damage,” Bennett added.

Former defense minister Benny Gantz said Netanyahu had abandoned the security of Israel and its citizens. “The enormous security challenges facing the country are increasing, and the prime minister and his cabinet are busy with a coup d’état.”

Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein said the alliance was “bad for Israel and the entire free world.”

Iranian expert Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz from the Institute of National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University tweeted that the new alliance was a message to Israel that its dream of a regional alliance was not feasible and never had been.

It underscored the point that most of the countries in the region view dialogue as the best way to deal with Iran, leaving Israel as the sole country that is focused on a military option.

Analyst and former MK Ksenia Svetlova of Mitvim – The Israeli Regional Institute for Regional Foreign Policies noted on Twitter that “Saudi Arabia is normalizing relations. No, not with Israel but rather with Iran”, while it has rebuked Israel publicly for its treatment of the Palestinians.

“Only two months ago, Netanyahu promised to bring peace with Saudi Arabia. We seem to be moving in the opposite direction,” she wrote.

The Wall Street Journal in an editorial published Friday blamed the Biden administration for the Iranian-Saudi deal and the fact that Saudi Arabia has yet to join the Abraham Accords, which is the vehicle by which Israel has already normalized ties with four Arab countries.

Can Saudi Arabia-China-Russia-Iran alliance end the US hegemony in the region?

Saudi Arabia-China, Russia and Iran are getting closer to resist the US hegemony and Washington is definitely not happy with this coalition. Over the years Beijing has inked various strategic partnerships with the Arab states to push United States out of the region.

Lately the Biden administration tried to redefine the relationships with Saudi Arabia, having deteriorated in 2018 over the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. It may be recalled that Biden, after assuming the charge as the president of the country, had vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" state over Khashoggi's murder.

Biden is under tremendous pressure after having initiated proxy war in Ukraine. Not only the world but United States is bearing the brunt of higher energy prices, supply disruptions and historic high inflation.

Analysts believe Biden having failed in punishing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) changed his policy to mend relationships, but failed in securing more oil from Saudi Arabia and made little headway on Israeli-Palestinian relationship. 

Biden in his recent visit tried to reassure his allies in the Middle East that the U.S. will stay actively engaged amid fears that China and Russia could swiftly fill a leadership vacuum.

Countering China's growing influence in international politics, Russia's war in Ukraine and Iranian influence in the Middle East remain to be seen as the top priority of the Biden administration.

According to some analysts, the New Cold War has already been triggered and the world will see further intensification due to China’s growing economy, military modernization, superiority in Artificial Intelligence, and soft power domain.

China's bilateral trade with Arab world in 2021 crossed the figure of US$330 billion. The China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has 20 partners in the Middle East and North Africa while Beijing has inked 15 strategic partnerships with the Arab states in the last decade alone, causing enough trouble for Washington.

The region has rapidly been witnessing bloc politics. The US and China are on quest of promoting their ideologies and political clouts. Washington seeks to promote democratic values to reinforce the QUAD and New Quad in the Middle East.

China–Iran 25-year economic cooperation deal of US$400 billion enhances Beijing's influence in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean.

Biden, unlike his predecessor Trump, is trying to unite the US allies in the Middle East, cementing NATO, the New Asia-Pacific Economic Bloc, and reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to obtain relative political gains.

When Trump became the president of the country, he instead of visiting Canada (Ottawa is the first capital to be visited by the US presidents due to economic diplomacy) visited Saudi Arabia and inked an agreement, worth US$350 billion including a US$110 billion weapons deal. Many US analysts believe that Saudi Arabia is a lucrative market as far as the US military-industrial complex and foreign direct investments are concerned. Saudi Arabia can also be instrumental in eroding Iranian sway in the region.

The Middle East (West Asia) is unlikely to remain immune to the great powers’ competition. Legitimation of MBS remains to be seen as the tip of the iceberg. The only game in the town for Washington is China and Iran in the region.

People can still recall that Modi was the only person ever denied a US visa because of deliberately allowed anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat state in 2002 when he was the Chief Minister of the state resulted in the killing of more than 1,000. However, Modi turned out to be an apple's eye of the US as soon as he became prime minister of India. It appears the US is more concerned about its national interest and is least bothered with morality. According to Machiavelli school of thought “politics have no relation to morals”.  

China, Russia, and Iran are clearly in one bloc opposing the US hegemony. The Ukraine crisis has further been bolstering ties between Beijing, Moscow, and Iran. Biden’s statement clearly illustrates that aforementioned countries are predicated to be described as the new evil axis to the US in a bid to unite the allies to protect the democratic values and the prevailing international world order. 

Need to end Saudi-Iran animosity

One completely fails to understand why even a thought of ending Saudi-Iranian animosity make the supporters of monarch jittery. If one could recollect lately Iraq made an attempt to ease tension between the two arc enemies, but turmoil was created in Iraq. Soon after two top military strategist, one each from Iran and Iraq were killed, the probability of war in the region increased manifold.

Recently, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who traveled to Germany to attend the 2020 Munich Security Conference, said that after the martyrdom of commander Soleimani, we received a message from Saudi Arabia calling on talks with Iran. Zarif also reiterated that although he replied to the Saudis' response, he received no further messages.

Following the remarks by the Iranian foreign minister, Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud claimed that Riyadh had not sent any private messages to Tehran. On the issue of talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, there seem divergent thoughts, which must be explored to end the enomsity.

First, it is being said that Saudi Arabia is trying to compare the dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran with the US-Iran negotiation and is constantly changing its stance on Iran. The nature of the negotiations between Iran and the US differs from that between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has repeatedly stated that it is willing to hold talks with the Saudis without any preconditions, as the proximity of the two countries is in favor of stabilizing the region and reducing tensions.

Second, the Saudis have always set mostly general and vague preconditions for starting talks with Iran, such as the need for Iran to change its behavior in the region. The foreign policies of the countries are defined by their foreign interests, so Saudi Arabia expects to change all of Iran's behavior and policies in the region, which is totally inappropriate.

Third, Saudi officials have been at odds over developments in the region; on the one hand, they know that the US and the West cannot provide the country’s security forever, which led Riyadh to the dialogue with Tehran, and on the other hand, they are still looking forward U. support. The recent regional developments have led Saudi Arabia to face new developments in the region.

Fourth, remarks by Zarif indicate that the Saudis are deeply afraid of escalating tensions in the region. Whenever military tensions are heightened in the region the Saudis reduce their provocative actions against Iran, but once the situation is settled down they resume their actions. The most notable sample of this behavior is Saudi Arabia’s reaction to the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, as it was trying to not take a provocative stance against Iran.

Fifth, Saudi Arabia needs to restore its ties with Iran to deal with the regional cases. The first issue is the attrition warfare in Yemen that began in March 2015 with the invasion of the Saudi-led coalition and has continued until now. There are clear thoughts a war that had nothing but destruction for the Yemeni people and defeats and lots of military costs for the Saudis.

In its recent actions toward Damascus, Saudi Arabia has shown that it is seeking to improve its relations with Syria, a country that has strong ties with Iran and is a part of the axis of resistance. In this regard, Syria’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Bashar Al-Jaafari, recently attended a special ceremony held in honor of the Saudi Minister of State in New York, Fahad Bin Abdullah Al Mubarak, which drew lots of controversy.

Diplomatic sources in New York said the Saudi delegate to the UN, Abdullah bin Yahya al-Muallami had intentionally met with Bashar al-Jaafari during the visit, which was unexpected for the attendees. During their celebration Saudi officials expressed their love for Syria and said that it remained in their hearts, adding that what had occurred between the two countries was nothing but a summer cloud that will inevitably pass.

Ankara has become a relentless rival to Riyadh in all aspects these days. This issue has been worsened following the Persian Gulf crisis, Saudi Arabia's cut of relations with Qatar and the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Saudi Arabia needs to improve its relations with Iran to be able to prevent Turkish influence, especially in African countries and Libya.

Improving relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia can undoubtedly be helpful in settling the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as Doha has gotten closer to Tehran and Ankara since the crisis.

 The point is that some parties will certainly be dissatisfied with the close relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and will make every effort to obstruct it.

Can OPEC opt for production cut?

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies face a major challenge in 2020 as demand for crude is expected to fall sharply.

The IEA estimated non-OPEC supply growth would surge to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year as compared to 1.8 million bpd in 2019, based on production hike in the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana.

The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month.

While US supply rose by 145,000 bpd in October, the IEA said, a slowdown in activity that started earlier this year looks set to continue as companies prioritize capital discipline.

Demand for crude oil from OPEC in 2020 will be 28.9 million bpd, the IEA forecast; one million bpd below the exporter club’s current production.

The recovery by OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia from attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure contributed 1.4 million bpd to the global oil supply increase in October of 1.5 million bpd.

With plans underway for the Aramco IPO and the persistent need for revenues to fund the government budget, Riyadh has every incentive to keep oil prices supported.

Saudi state oil company Aramco, the world’s most profitable firm, scheduled to start its share sale on 17^th November in an IPO that may help in mobilizing between US$20 billion to US$40 billion.

The IEA said that if some or all tariffs were lifted in coming months, world economic growth and oil demand growth would both rise significantly, though the rebound may not be immediate.

Sluggish refinery activity in the first three quarters has caused crude oil demand to fall in 2019 for the first time since 2009, but refining is set to rebound sharply in the fourth quarter and in 2020.

Who has attacked Iranian oil tanker?

Reportedly, an Iranian oil tanker Sabiti was hit by missiles in Red Sea waters off Saudi Arabia on Friday. The incident is likely to further heighten friction in the region already rattled by attacks on tankers and oil installations since May. Oil prices rose on the news of the incident and industry sources said it could drive up already high shipping costs.

The Red Sea is a major global shipping route for oil and other trade, linking the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.

It is the latest incident involving oil tankers in the Red Sea and Gulf region, and may ratchet up tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, long-time regional adversaries fighting a proxy war in Yemen, at the southern end of the Red Sea.

There was no claim of responsibility for the reported incident and it has yet to be independently confirmed.

The proximity of the tanker at the time of the attack to Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah port gives western media to allege that the missiles could have been launched from the kingdom.

Another plausible theory could be that the ship was hit in an Israeli sabotage operation. The purpose would be to disrupt Iranian tanker activity in the Red Sea corridor as it heads toward the Suez Canal. A third possibility would be that the attack was conducted by a terrorist group.

An Iranian government spokesman has described targeting of an Iranian-owned oil tanker by missiles as a “cowardly attack” and said Iran would respond after the facts had been studied.

“Iran is avoiding haste, carefully examining what has happened and probing facts,” government spokesman Ali Rabei, siad.

Separately, a senior security official said video evidence had provided leads about the incident, adding that the Sabiti was hit by two missiles.

“A special committee has been set up to investigate the attack on Sabiti... with two missiles and its report will soon be submitted to the authorities for decision,” said Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s top security body.

“Piracy and mischief on international waterways aimed at making commercial shipping insecure will not go unanswered,” he said.

According to Iranian sources, leakage of cargo from the tanker has been stopped as it heads for the Gulf. The tanker is heading for Persian Gulf waters and it was expected to enter Iranian waters safely. Nasrollah Sardashti, head of National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) that owns the damaged tanker, said the crew was safe and the vessel would reach Iranian waters within 10 days.

Saudi Arabia said it received a distress message from the damaged tanker but the vessel kept moving and switched off its transponder before it could be provide assistance.

The United States has been balaming Iran for attacks on tankers in the Gulf in May and June as well as for strikes on Saudi oil sites in September. Tehran has denied having a role in any of them.

The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which operates in the region, said it was aware of the reports but had no further information.

According to western media, at times, Iranian narratives offer diverging accounts. State-run television, citing the national oil company, said the tanker was hit by missiles while denying a report they came from Saudi Arabia.

It also said, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the ship was hit twice, without saying what struck it. State television broadcast images from the Sabiti’s deck saying they were taken after the attack but showing no visible damage. The ship’s hull was not in view.

Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said it did not have firm evidence about who may have been behind the incident.

Saudi-Iranian Standoff a threat to global peace

The recent standoff between Saudi Arabia and Iran is not something new but has deep roots spread over centuries and goes beyond dawn of Islam. In the recent past some of the quarters in the Kingdom have been saying, Iran is an enemy worse than Israel”.

Nathalie Goulet, Deputy Chairman of the Commission of Foreign Affairs and Defense Forces at the French Senate, recently said Saudi Arabia cannot bear Iran returning to international arena and it has planned the recent dispute as a scheme to hamper Iran’s growing international relations.

He says it is a war of economy and seeking the upper hand behind a mask of religion. Behind the religious differences and generations-old grudges that Saudi Arabia and Iran hold against each other, there lies a sense of arrogant rivalry and an economic war as well.

He is of the view that Persian Gulf littoral countries, not least of all Saudi Arabia, never accepted the Iran nuclear deal, regarding which they still preserve their rage against the United States. He is of the view that the Wahhabi king has not only to fight the Islamic, but to prove that fighting the group is a real objective with Riyadh as well, even though the monarch has been accused of funding ISIS.

Therefore, besides several beheading punishments on the onset of the current Christian year, Saudi Arabia needed to make a coalition more powerful than 34 countries.

In this complex region nothings comes as coincidence. Saudi Arabia knew well that by executing a dissident Shiite sheikh, it would not only trigger anger and demonstrations on the streets of Tehran, but enrage regional Shiite minorities in Bahrain, Yemen and Lebanon as well.

This was a well-calculated move from Saudi Arabia to stimulate rival Iran. This comes amid Iran’s attempts to return to the scene of world politics as Tehran has turned into the unavoidable venue for politicians, tourists, and businessmen.

The revival and return of Iran to the international arena is unbearable for Saudi Arabia. Since Saudi Arabia is facing a historical budget deficit of US$87 billion, equal to 20 percent of its GDP, Iran in the near future will gain access to over $100 billion of its assets blocked around the world.

Saudi Arabia does with a very convoluted governmental system. Feeling secluded and abandoned by the US, Saudi Arabia feels downgraded by turning into the States’ second ally.

Therefore, Saudi Arabia is forced to prove that it really wants to fight terrorism. By executing a Shiite leader and enraging all Shiites, it showed it wants control over the Gulf, one that in the eye of Saudi Arabia cannot be a Persian gulf.

Although the US has also tried to give an impression that it disapproves action of the Saudi government, the strategies of Saudis are clear: to hamper the process of Iran’s return to the international arena step by step.

To achieve its ultimate objective Saudi Arabia intends not only to team up with Persian Gulf kingdoms, but is eyeing relations with Turkey and, in particular, Israel. As it goes, the enemy of enemy is a friend, seems to be true about governments as well.

A meager spark is needed for a highly militarized region to turn into a blazing furnace, either directly or via in-between agents which Iran cannot control.

It is feared that, like the days of the Iran-Iraq war, the West would support Iran’s rivals, at the top of which stands Israel. It seems that the worrying silence of ambassadors supports that view.

However, no one should forget that the world needs unity to fight the ISIS but one witnesses a pointless diplomatic pressure rising in Iran and Saudi Arabia. The entire balance and stability of this strategic region is at stake. It seems arms dealers are going to have bright days ahead.

All the nations have to curb the factors that can aggravate sectarian conflicts between the Shiite and Sunni. It is the harsh reality emerging right before all of us certainly to turn against us, with flares going beyond the current boundaries.

Iranian annual trade hits US$150 billion despite sanctions

Despite sanctions imposed by UN, EU and U.S. on Iran over its nuclear program, the country’s annual trade amounted to US$150 billion for the recently concluded Iranian calendar year on March 20.

Iranian Deputy Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Mojtaba Khosrotaj said that although official data on Iran’s annual trade has not been published, but non-oil trade is estimated to hit US$105 billion in the past year.
Taking oil and service sectors into account, the country’s foreign trade will exceed $150 billion, he added.
This performance shows significant abilities of the Iranian nation that managed to achieve US$150 billion business with the world despite sanctions.
The official said there are concerted efforts to increase the country’s value of annual non-oil exports by 20 percent to US$60 billion during the ongoing Iranian calendar year.
In December 2014, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the government aimed at increasing non-oil exports to US$50 billion by the next calendar year.
Traditionally, Iran relies heavily on oil for revenue. With sanctions restricting oil exports, the government is working to improve other parts of the economy.
Iran’s non-oil exports witnessed nearly half-a-percent growth while the country’s non-oil imports dropped around five percent in the previous Iranian calendar year. 
Another remarkable feat is that over 12.3 million tons of goods were transited via Iran in the previous Iranian calendar year, which ended on March 20, 2015.

Transit of goods via the country rose by 6.5 percent in Iranian calendar year (March 2014 to March 2015) compared to the year before quoted Iranian Roads Maintenance Organization official Mohammad Javad Atrchian.
The transited consignments mostly consisted of fuel, construction materials, home appliances, cotton and vehicles. Shahriyar Afandizadeh, the Iranian deputy transport and urban development minister has said that Iran has the capacity to transit 40 million tons of goods annually.