From Superpowers to a Super Syndicate

This writeup discusses a proposition that may appear unconventional but is rooted in long-term observation. After more than a decade of writing on geopolitics in South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, it has become increasingly evident that the traditional concept of regional and global superpowers no longer adequately explains contemporary international politics. Power today is exercised less through overt state rivalry and more through a coordinated, transnational arrangement that may best be described as a Super Syndicate.

This emerging order is not ideological in nature. It is driven by strategic convergence among states possessing advanced intelligence capabilities and sustained by powerful economic interests. The principal beneficiaries include the global military-industrial complex, energy exploration and production companies, major financial institutions, and international shipping networks. These actors provide the financial backbone, while intelligence agencies of aligned states facilitate operational coordination, risk management, and narrative control.

Unlike the bipolar or unipolar systems of the past, the Super Syndicate does not thrive on direct confrontation among its members. Instead, it functions through a tacit division of strategic space. Countries and regions are assigned defined spheres of influence, minimizing direct competition while maximizing collective gain. Conflicts, when they occur, are managed rather than resolved, ensuring continuity rather than closure.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict illustrates this dynamic. While Ukraine has suffered extensive human and infrastructural losses and Europe has faced economic and security disruptions, the broader global system remains intact. Arms manufacturers have recorded unprecedented growth, energy markets have been restructured, and financial systems have adjusted without systemic shock. The conflict persists not because resolution is unattainable, but because prolonged instability serves entrenched interests.

The situation in Gaza further exposes the asymmetries of this order. Israel’s military campaign has continued despite widespread international criticism and humanitarian concern. Yet institutional accountability has remained elusive. This is not merely a failure of diplomacy; it reflects a structural imbalance in which certain actors operate with effective immunity due to their strategic positioning within the broader system.

Iran’s experience offers additional insight. Despite its aspirations for regional influence, Tehran has remained constrained by prolonged economic sanctions. The recent escalation involving Israel revealed a notable regional alignment. Several Middle Eastern states, while publicly maintaining neutrality, actively supported Israel through intelligence cooperation and defensive measures. The episode underscored the limitations faced by states attempting to operate outside the prevailing strategic framework.

For Pakistan and other developing states, these trends carry important implications. Sovereignty in the contemporary international system is increasingly conditional, shaped by economic leverage, intelligence alignment, and narrative positioning rather than formal equality among states. Moral appeals and legal arguments, while important, rarely translate into decisive outcomes without strategic backing.

The conclusion is not conspiratorial but analytical - global power is no longer exercised solely through identifiable superpowers. It is mediated through a coordinated network of state and non-state actors whose interests converge across military, financial, and strategic domains. Recognizing this reality is essential for policymakers, analysts, and scholars seeking to navigate an international order that is less visible, more complex, and increasingly resistant to traditional frameworks of analysis.

Pakistan Economic Turnaround: A Narrative Built on Illusions

Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb’s upbeat portrayal of Pakistan’s economy may sound reassuring to international audiences, but it rests on fragile assumptions and selective facts. The claim that Pakistan has reached a “critical turning point” reflects more narrative management than economic reality.

There is no denying that inflation has eased, foreign exchange reserves have inched upward, and the current account has temporarily moved into surplus. However, these outcomes are not the result of deep structural reform or productivity gains. They are the by-product of harsh demand compression, import suppression, excessive taxation, and reliance on remittances. This is stabilization through pain, not sustainable recovery.

A primary fiscal surplus achieved by slashing development spending and squeezing an already overburdened tax base is hardly a triumph. It signals a state retreating from growth and social investment rather than fixing long-standing inefficiencies. Economic growth of 2.7 percent in a country with one of the fastest-growing populations in the world is not progress—it is stagnation disguised as stability.

The minister’s repeated emphasis on an export-led transition remains largely aspirational. Pakistan’s exports are still narrow, low value, and vulnerable to external shocks. Textiles dominate, agriculture remains inefficient and climate-exposed, and the IT sector faces policy inconsistency and weak infrastructure. Announcing reforms does not equal executing them. Competitiveness is earned through governance, not rhetoric.

Privatization, energy sector restructuring, and tariff liberalization continue to be recycled promises. State-owned enterprises remain a drain on public finances, while circular debt persists as a structural failure. Investors do not respond to interviews and roadmaps; they respond to credible institutions, policy predictability, and contract enforcement—areas where Pakistan remains deficient.

Remittances are hailed as a pillar of stability, yet they highlight a deeper failure - an economy unable to generate opportunities at home. Similarly, foreign reserves covering barely two-and-a-half months of imports offer little protection in an increasingly volatile global environment.

Invoking an “East Asia moment” borders on self-deception. East Asian success was built on disciplined industrial policy, export diversification, human capital investment, and institutional strength—none of which Pakistan has demonstrated at scale. Acknowledging challenges such as population growth, learning poverty, gender exclusion, and climate vulnerability means little without decisive action.

Pakistan’s economy is not transitioning from crisis to opportunity. It is trapped in a cycle of cosmetic stability and structural decay. Until growth becomes productive, inclusive, and job-creating, celebrating macroeconomic indicators is dangerously misleading.

Middle East Riviera: Monetizing Gaza Ruins

The US administration has once again revealed its moral blindness by reviving the fantasy of turning Gaza into a “Middle East Riviera.” Branded as “Project Sunrise,” the initiative—first reported by the Wall Street Journal—presents itself as a visionary reconstruction plan. In reality, it is a deeply cynical attempt to monetize devastation while erasing Palestinian political existence.

Marketed as a decade-long transformation of Gaza into a high-tech coastal hub, the plan is anchored in luxury housing, tourism, AI-managed infrastructure, and private investment. Glossy presentations speak of smart cities, high returns, and urban renewal. What they conspicuously avoid mentioning is the fate, rights, or consent of Gaza’s 2.4 million Palestinians—the very people whose land is being redesigned.

At its core, Project Sunrise is less about reconstruction than control. It conditions any rebuilding on Hamas’s total disarmament, a demand Israel and the United States failed to achieve after two years of relentless war. If one of the region’s most advanced militaries could not impose this outcome through force, the assumption that it can now be achieved through PowerPoint diplomacy borders on fantasy.

The proposal’s credibility erodes further with its emphasis on a new administrative capital, “New Rafah,” designed to house more than half a million people in southern Gaza. Framed as orderly development, these risks becoming population transfer by stealth—concentrating civilians away from their homes while large parts of Gaza are redeveloped under rigid security and investment regimes. History shows that such “development-led relocation” often serves as a precursor to permanent displacement.

Equally troubling is the project’s financial logic. Washington has committed roughly 20 percent of the estimated US$112 billion cost, positioning itself not as a guarantor of rights, but as a stakeholder expecting influence and returns. The involvement of figures linked to Trump’s real estate networks reinforces the perception that Gaza’s ruins are being treated as a commercial opportunity rather than the aftermath of mass suffering.

Nowhere does the plan address accountability for the devastation, the ongoing blockade, or the thousands still buried beneath rubble. Palestinian self-determination is absent; justice is ignored. Instead, Palestinians are reduced to a population to be managed, not a people with rights.

Trump’s vision offers luxury towers atop unresolved injustice. Without addressing occupation, security, and political freedom, the “Middle East Riviera” will remain what it truly is: a real estate fantasy built on denial.

 

Bangladesh becoming “Panipat ka maidan”

Despite formidable odds, Bangladesh managed to script an enviable economic story over the past decade. Consistent GDP growth, export-led industrialization anchored by the ready-made garments sector, improving social indicators, and relative macroeconomic stability placed the country among Asia’s fastest emerging economies. Ironically, this very success appears to have turned Bangladesh into a theatre for competing global and regional ambitions.

Much like Panipat in South Asian history—where decisive battles were repeatedly fought by rival powers—Bangladesh is increasingly being reduced to a battleground for influence rather than a partner in prosperity. India, the United States, China and Russia have all attempted to secure strategic leverage in Dhaka. Each power has pursued its own interests, but none has prioritized long-term economic stability for the country itself.

The United States’ regime-change initiative ultimately succeeded. However, Washington’s engagement has remained narrowly political. Unlike past global interventions that at least carried economic reconstruction frameworks, there is no visible recovery plan, stabilization package or trade-driven agenda for Bangladesh. Regime change, without an accompanying economic roadmap, has only amplified uncertainty.

India continues to view Bangladesh largely through a strategic and security lens, while China’s engagement remains infrastructure-focused, tied to connectivity and supply chains. Russia’s role is limited and transactional. Yet none of these actors has articulated a comprehensive, people-centric recovery strategy for a nation now facing political paralysis.

The recent killing of a student leader has pushed the country into a state of standstill. Historically, student movements have been central to Bangladesh’s political evolution. Today, unrest is unfolding amid intense geopolitical rivalry risks prolonged instability. Investor confidence is weakening, export momentum is under pressure, and economic continuity is increasingly fragile.

The irony is unmistakable. Every power eager to influence Bangladesh shows little willingness to assume responsibility for economic recovery. Bangladesh does not need to become another Panipat—where outcomes are dictated by external forces and costs borne by the local population. Without a credible recovery plan rooted in stability and economic continuity, this power contest will exact a heavy price from the Bangladeshi people.

Iranian efforts to improve relations with Afghanistan

Iran will make every effort to give fresh impetus to its interactions with Afghanistan along the border. Masoud Pezeshkian made the comment in a televised address to the people at the close of his trip to the eastern Iranian province of South Khorasan, which borders Afghanistan.

“Many of the needs could be met, and this is possible,” he explained.

He said the provincial governor has been authorized to expedite engagement with neighboring Afghanistan.

Iran’s trade volume with Afghanistan is currently described as decent by economic reports, with Tehran investing significant effort into maintaining commerce since the Afghan government was toppled in 2021. The Taliban, who were ousted by US forces in 2001 and faced a 20-year occupation, swiftly returned to power following the American withdrawal. 

Since then, the new rulers have managed to improve security, with terrorist attacks becoming less frequent. Yet, the country remains burdened by the remnants of the occupation, facing escalating poverty and unemployment.

Although trade continues, Iran has yet to officially recognize the Taliban. Tehran remains at odds with the group over a host of issues, including the withholding of Iran’s water rights from the Hirmand River, the ongoing influx of refugees, and the lack of inclusivity within the new government. Nevertheless, Iranian officials have kept their embassy in Kabul active and continue to engage in regular discussions with Taliban leadership.

Tehran has also been working to establish deeper ties between the Taliban and Afghanistan’s other neighbors, none of whom have officially recognized the group’s government. 

To this end, Iran hosted a meeting in Tehran last week involving representatives from Afghanistan’s neighboring countries and Russia. During the summit, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the significance of stability and security, noting that Afghanistan’s integration into the region would be mutually beneficial. He described Afghanistan as possessing unique human, economic, and natural potential, historically serving as a bridge between neighboring regions.

Afghanistan’s relationship under the Taliban has been specially friction-ridden with Pakistan. The two countries engaged in a brief military conflict earlier this year; while a ceasefire is currently in effect, it is widely considered to be fragile.

 

PSX: 7 IPOs worth PKR4.3 billions issued during 2025

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed momentum in initial public offering (IPO) activity during 2025, with a total of 7 offerings recorded during the year, including two GEM Board listings and one migration. This momentum mirrors 2024, when the bourse also hosted seven IPOs, underscoring sustained capital market activity.

The total amount raised from investors through the 7 offerings (including migration) in 2025 aggregated to PKR4.3 billion as against PKR8.4 billion last year. Despite the lower quantum of funds raised, investor appetite remained robust, as all offerings were oversubscribed, reflecting strong market enthusiasm.

This sustained IPO momentum is largely a continuation of last year’s trend, driven by macroeconomic stability under the IMF programme, improving investor confidence, positive equity market sentiment, and a declining interest rate environment.

The benchmark Index surged significantly by 47.9% in PKR terms and 47.1% in US$ terms in 2025 to date, reflecting overall positive sentiment and renewed investor interest.

The average daily traded volume has also increased by 40%, reaching 797 million shares, while the daily traded value has risen by 64% to PKR36.6 billion during 2025 to date.

In 2025, new listings on the main board included Zarea Limited (ZAL), Barkat Frisian Agro Limited (BFAGRO), Image REIT (IRIET), and Pak Qatar Family Takaful (PQFTL). There was one migration of BlueEx from GEM Board to Main board while two companies were added to GEM board which are Nets International Communication (GEMNETS) and Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (GEMPACRA). To highlight, out of 4 main board listing, Topline was advisor in 2 listing in 2025.

In terms of performance, ZAL was the best-performing IPO in 2025, delivering a return of 202% in 2025TD, in which topline was the advisor.

The global IPO market has also gained momentum. According to Ernst & Young (E&Y), a total of 914 IPOs were recorded through 9M2025, raising US$110 billion, as compared to 870 IPOs that raised US$78 billion during the same period last year. The growth in IPO activity is primarily driven by larger deal sizes, supported by robust equity markets, monetary easing, and more accommodative financial conditions. Despite ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, investor sentiment continues to improve. Geopolitical risk is increasingly being viewed as part of the “new normal”—a persistent backdrop to market dynamics rather than a one-off shock.

Topline Securities expects IPO activity in 2026 to remain strong compared with the current year, supported by a healthy pipeline of offerings, improving economic conditions, and a lower interest rate environment.

In mainboard, 4 companies raised funds through IPO. These companies represented various sectors including Technology, Food & Personal Care, Real Estate Investment, and Insurance.

Zarea Limited (ZAL):

Zarea is one of leading digital technology company specializing in the commodity trading market of Pakistan. The primary purpose of the IPO is to achieve growth by increasing their customer base and improving the user interface of its online platform. For this purpose, company is raising money to meet their working capital needs, establish its own logistic fleet, upgrade it online platform etc. The company offered 62.5 million shares at strike price of PKR16.5/ share, raising PKR1,031 million in February, 2025 with an oversubscription of 1.9x.

Barkat Frisian Agro Limited (BFAGRO): 

BFAGRO is the Pakistan’s only producer of pasteurized egg products. It is a Pakistan-Dutch Joint venture between Buksh Group and Frisian Egg International B.V. which is Dutch company. Company raised funds to setup new facility in Faisalabad which will increase production capacity by 12,000 tons totaling to 29,000. This expansion will enable the company to explore new export opportunities and target new customers in the local market. The company offered 67.7 million shares at strike price of PKR18.2/ share, raising PKR1,232 million in February, 2025 with an oversubscription of 16.25x.

Image REIT (IREIT): 

Image REIT is hybrid REIT scheme having both Rental and Developmental Component managed by Sino link RMC. The principal activity of IREIT is to invest directly in real estate assets with the objective of generating sustainable income and long-term returns for investors through rental income, capital appreciation, and value creation. The principal purpose of the Issue is to raise funds to complete the construction of the Developmental Component. The company offered 92.0 million shares at a strike price of PKR10.0/ share, raising PKR921 million in September, 2025 with an oversubscription of 2.1x.

Pak Qatar Family Takaful (PQFT): 

Pak Qatar Family Takaful Limited (PQFTL) is Pakistan’s largest dedicated family takaful company which offers comprehensive Takaful and investment solutions. The company raised funds to be utilized for: 1) Expansion of Digital Footprint, 2) Strengthening Solvency and Enhancing Underwriting Capacity, and 3) Compliance with Minimum Paid-up Capital requirements. The company offered 50 million shares at strike price of PKR18.0/ share, raising PKR901 million in December, 2025 with an oversubscription of 3.2x.

 

PSX benchmark index closes at highest ever 171,960 level on Thursday

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum during the week ended on December 19, 2025. The benchmark index achieved its highest ever closing on Thursday, at 171,960 points, witnessed some profit taking on Friday, closing the week at 171,404 points, up 1,539 points or 0.91%WoW. Market participation weakened by 5.6%WoW with average daily traded volume down to 1.2 billion shares, from 1.3 billion shares in the prior week.

Investors’ optimism was boosted following the announcement of a surprise 50bps rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as against market’s anticipation of status quo. Sentiments were further boosted after current account recorded a surplus of US$100 million for November 2025.

On the macroeconomic front, Textile exports for 5MFY26 increased by 3%YoY to US$7.8 billion, whereas, Petroleum imports declined by 2%YoY to US$6.4 billion.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$1.3 billion to US$15.9 billion as of December 12, 2025 after receiving IMF’s disbursement under the EFF and RSF.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Finance Minister rules out mini budget; insists revenue gap to be met via tax compliance, 2) Pakistan and Uzbekistan agree to extend PTA, 3) Pakistan seeks oil deal with Russia, 4) SIFC prioritizes brownfield refinery upgrades, and 5) Pakistan, China advance talks on US$2.2 billion industrial complex at Port Qasim.

Jute, Real Estate Investment Trust, Commercial Banks, Close – End Mutual Fund and Engineering were amongst the top performing sectors, while Woollen, Modarabas, Synthetic & Rayon, Textile Spinning and Vanaspati & Allied Industries were amongst the laggards.

Major buying was recorded by Individuals with a net buy of US$16.7 million, while foreigners and Insurance were major sellers with net sell of US$12.7 million and US$8.2 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: RMPL, PIBTL, NBP, UBL, and DCR, while laggards included: SSGC, BNWM, PIOC, IBFL, and PGLC.

AKD Securities foresees the momentum in the benchmark index to continue given successful third tranche disbursement under the EFF & RSF, monetary easing environment, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

This outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities, at a multiple of 8.1x while offering a dividend yield of 6.5%.

The top picks of the brokerage house include: MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, ILP and INDU.