There is no denying that inflation has eased, foreign
exchange reserves have inched upward, and the current account has temporarily
moved into surplus. However, these outcomes are not the result of deep
structural reform or productivity gains. They are the by-product of harsh
demand compression, import suppression, excessive taxation, and reliance on
remittances. This is stabilization through pain, not sustainable recovery.
A primary fiscal surplus achieved by slashing development
spending and squeezing an already overburdened tax base is hardly a triumph. It
signals a state retreating from growth and social investment rather than fixing
long-standing inefficiencies. Economic growth of 2.7 percent in a country with
one of the fastest-growing populations in the world is not progress—it is
stagnation disguised as stability.
The minister’s repeated emphasis on an export-led transition
remains largely aspirational. Pakistan’s exports are still narrow, low value,
and vulnerable to external shocks. Textiles dominate, agriculture remains
inefficient and climate-exposed, and the IT sector faces policy inconsistency
and weak infrastructure. Announcing reforms does not equal executing them.
Competitiveness is earned through governance, not rhetoric.
Privatization, energy sector restructuring, and tariff
liberalization continue to be recycled promises. State-owned enterprises remain
a drain on public finances, while circular debt persists as a structural
failure. Investors do not respond to interviews and roadmaps; they respond to
credible institutions, policy predictability, and contract enforcement—areas
where Pakistan remains deficient.
Remittances are hailed as a pillar of stability, yet they
highlight a deeper failure - an economy unable to generate opportunities at
home. Similarly, foreign reserves covering barely two-and-a-half months of
imports offer little protection in an increasingly volatile global environment.
Invoking an “East Asia moment” borders on self-deception.
East Asian success was built on disciplined industrial policy, export
diversification, human capital investment, and institutional strength—none of
which Pakistan has demonstrated at scale. Acknowledging challenges such as
population growth, learning poverty, gender exclusion, and climate
vulnerability means little without decisive action.
Pakistan’s economy is not transitioning from crisis to
opportunity. It is trapped in a cycle of cosmetic stability and structural
decay. Until growth becomes productive, inclusive, and job-creating,
celebrating macroeconomic indicators is dangerously misleading.
