Hawks Threatening Fragile Regional Peace

The recent explosion at a police station in Indian-held Kashmir — coming just days after deadly blasts in New Delhi and Pakistan — has once again raised concerns of malign actors working deliberately to destabilize an already volatile region. Whether the Kashmir incident was truly an accidental detonation, as Indian authorities insist, or part of a wider pattern, the cumulative effect is unmistakable: someone is adamant at keeping tensions high and diplomacy frozen.

According to officials, the Nowgam police-station blast occurred while forensic teams were examining confiscated explosives. The explanation may be technically sound, yet the timing is troubling. Three significant blasts across two countries within a single week cannot be brushed aside as mere coincidence. In the past, similar strings of incidents have conveniently emerged whenever even a hint of diplomatic calm seemed possible between India and Pakistan.

Beyond the security lens lies a broader geopolitical undercurrent. With Pakistan-Afghanistan transit trade suspended amid deteriorating ties between Islamabad and Kabul, India is making well-calculated moves to expand its footprint in the region. New Delhi’s push to position itself as a reliable trade partner for Afghanistan and Central Asia — backed notably by its renewed emphasis on the Chabahar corridor — is not accidental. It aligns neatly with Pakistan’s current vulnerabilities - fractured politics, troubled borders, and waning influence in a region it once dominated economically.

This is precisely the landscape in which hawks thrive. Their objective is not simply to trigger panic but to shape narratives that erode trust, fuel suspicion, and undermine any chance of sustained engagement. Each blast, each rumour, each accusation feeds into a cycle designed to keep India and Pakistan locked in strategic paralysis.

For Pakistan, the stakes are particularly high. Its economic revival hinges on rebuilding regional connectivity and reasserting itself as a natural trade and transit hub. But that requires stability — not only at home but across its borders. Repeated shocks, even when labelled “accidental,” play directly into the hands of those who want to see Pakistan isolated and reactionary.

If the region is to move forward, both New Delhi and Islamabad must resist being dragged by hawks into predictable confrontations. Joint investigations, fact-based assessments, and a willingness to insulate diplomacy from security incidents are essential. Otherwise, every spark — whether accidental or engineered — will continue to push South Asia closer to the brink.

At a moment when the region desperately needs calm, hawks are doing what they do best - threatening the fragile peace that holds it together.

Pakistan efficient in seeking debt, pathetic in boosting exports

If Pakistan ever launches a “national skill inventory,” debt-seeking deserves pride of place—right next to cricket and political speeches. Few nations can match our talent for locating, negotiating, and securing loans at record speed. In fact, if there were global rankings for borrowing, Pakistan would be a top-tier performer. Our only handicap is that medals can’t be pledged as collateral.

Over the last few years, we have turned debt acquisition into a disciplined craft. China rolls over funds before we even finish the request. Saudi Arabia extends deposits faster than we can print press releases thanking them. And commercial banks? They happily oblige—charging interest rates so high they should come with a health warning. But we take the money anyway, proudly calling it “stabilization.”

Yet when it comes to boosting exports—the one activity that could actually reduce our dependency—we become painfully sluggish. The same state that can negotiate billions overnight cannot help exporters ship a container on time. Infrastructure collapses, policies flip, energy costs skyrocket, and bureaucratic hurdles stretch on longer than IMF conditionalities.

Our export basket still resembles a museum catalogue: textiles, some rice, a bit of leather, and heroic claims that IT exports will one day rescue us. Meanwhile, competitors raced ahead years ago. Bangladesh became a garment giant, Vietnam turned into a global manufacturing hub, and India climbed the tech value chain. Pakistan? We perfected the art of writing desperate letters requesting “emergency support.”

We do not lack vision—only execution. We produce policies like an assembly line but refuse to implement even the simplest reforms. Instead, we remain obsessed with “new inflows,” as if the nation is a smartphone constantly running on low battery and eternally plugged into someone else’s charger.

It is the grand irony of our economic life: we can sell our pleas faster than we can sell our products. Friendly countries trust us with their money more than global markets trust our goods.

Until Pakistan learns to earn instead of borrow, we will remain trapped in this cycle—experts at seeking debt, amateurs at creating value.

Trump’s Admission Strengthens Iranian Case Against US

Donald Trump’s casual admission that he personally oversaw Israel’s strikes on Iran has reopened a legal and diplomatic front Washington had been trying hard to keep shut. What the administration denied in real time, Trump confirmed with ease — turning a boastful remark into potential evidence. In a region where narratives matter and legal battles increasingly shape geopolitical outcomes, Trump’s words have handed Tehran an unexpected opening.

Trump’s claim that he was “very much in charge” of the Israeli attacks carries serious implications. In the US, suspects are routinely warned that anything they say can be used against them. Yet some assume this principle does not apply to those in power. There was a reason the administration initially distanced itself from the June 13 strikes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted Israel had acted “unilaterally” and that the US was not involved. But Trump, seeking to inflate his own role, publicly claimed responsibility in early November, ignoring the consequences.

Tehran reacted immediately. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said it had always been clear the US participated in what Iran called Israel’s “crime of aggression.” The 12-day campaign ended on June 24, leaving more than 1,100 Iranians dead, including military commanders, scientists and civilians. Key nuclear, military and civilian sites were hit.

Analysts believe the offensive stopped only after Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes caused significant damage in Israel and hit a US airbase in Qatar. Without that response, they argue the strikes could have continued until Iran was destabilized.

Iran quickly escalated the matter to the United Nations. Its ambassador urged the Security Council to hold Washington accountable. Days later, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, calling the strikes violations of the UN Charter, IAEA resolutions and Security Council Resolution 487.

He said responsibility rests with Israel and the US, “which – in line with Trump’s admission – directed and controlled the aggression.” Iran formally demanded full reparation for material and moral damages.

International law expert Dr. Hesamuddin Boroumand said Trump’s admission amounts to acknowledgment, giving Iran grounds to pursue compensation through UN mechanisms. He added that Iran could also approach the UN Human Rights Council, as attacks on civilian sites violated the Geneva Conventions and the fundamental right to life, creating criminal responsibility for US officials involved.

A recent precedent exists: in South Africa’s genocide case at the ICJ, statements by Israeli officials were used as evidence. The ICC later cited some of those remarks when issuing arrest warrants, including for Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Trump’s words, offered casually, may now carry weight far beyond domestic politics — potentially reviving Iran’s case against the United States on the global stage.

PSX benchmark index up 1.5%WoW despite volatility

The successful approval of 27th Amendment by majority in both lower and upper houses settled political uncertainty, driving the index up by 3,751 points in last two trading sessions. Consequently, benchmark index closed at 161,935 points on Friday, up 1.5%WoW. The said positive outweighed the early-week bearish sentiment stemming from continued tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as peace talks concluded without a resolution and Afghanistan announced a suspension of trade with and through Pakistan.

Meanwhile, market participation weakened by 13.6%WoW with avg daily traded volume down to 944 million shares, as against 1.1 billion shares a week ago.

On the macroeconomic front, workers remittance during the month of October 2025 was recorded at US$3.4 billion, up 12%YoY. Alongside, inflows under the Roshan Digital Accounts were reported at US$250 million during October 2025, up 4.6%MoM.

Auto sector sales rose to 20,985 units, up 38%YoY.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$22 million to US$14.5 billion as of November 07, 2025.

AKD Securities foresees the momentum in the benchmark index to continue given successful staff-level agreement of the IMF’s second review, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

This outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities.

Top picks of the brokerage include: MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, and INDU.

 

Hamas Is Still Alive — and Waiting for Everyone Else to Catch Up

The assumption in many Western and regional capitals that Hamas has been politically or administratively dismantled in Gaza is proving premature. If anything, the prolonged delays in implementing the so-called Trump plan have created the very vacuum in which Hamas thrives. As one analyst put it, “the longer the international community waits, the more entrenched Hamas becomes.” And Gaza today is a textbook example of how power fills empty spaces faster than diplomacy does.

Washington insists there is “progress” toward forming a multinational force and a new governing arrangement for Gaza. A US State Department spokesperson even framed Hamas’ alleged taxation and fee collection as proof that “Hamas cannot and will not govern Gaza.” Yet on the ground, the opposite appears to be unfolding. Hamas is not only governing but quietly reassembling the skeleton of its pre-war administration.

The Palestinian Authority, eager for a return to relevancy, wants a formal role in Gaza’s next chapter. Israel wants no such thing. Fatah and Hamas, meanwhile, cannot even agree on what the “next chapter” should look like. In this fog of indecision, Hamas behaves like the only actor with a plan — even if that plan is merely survival until everyone else stops arguing.

Local dynamics tell an even clearer story. Hamas continues to monitor goods entering the enclave, operates checkpoints, questions truck drivers, and fines price manipulators. While this is far from the full taxation regime it once imposed, it signals something crucial, administrative muscle memory. Even a senior Gaza food importer noted that Hamas “sees and records everything,” a polite way of saying that the movement’s bureaucratic instincts remain intact.

Financially, Hamas has kept its payroll alive — standardizing salaries at 1,500 shekels per month and drawing, diplomats say, on stockpiled cash reserves. It has replaced killed regional governors and filled the seats of 11 politburo members who died in the war. Thousands of its employees, including police, remain ready to work under any “new administration,” a phrase that increasingly sounds theoretical.

On the Israeli-controlled side, small Palestinian factions opposing Hamas have emerged, but their presence is symbolic rather than structural. They are irritants, not alternatives.

Gaza’s civilians continue to bear the brunt of this unresolved power struggle. Aid flows have improved since the ceasefire, but daily life remains harsh, prices remain punishing, and income has evaporated. In such conditions, the governing force that remains visible — even minimally — begins to look like the only functioning authority.

Gaza activist Mustafa Ibrahim summed up the situation with brutal clarity, Hamas is exploiting delays “to bolster its rule.” The unanswered question is whether anyone can prevent that. The more realistic question may be whether anyone is even ready to try.

For now, one conclusion is unavoidable - Hamas is still alive — politically, administratively, and strategically. And unless an alternative emerges with both legitimacy and capacity, Hamas will remain exactly where it has always been — filling the void left by others’ hesitation.

Pak–Afghan trade standoff: Self-Inflicted Losses for Both Sides

The Pakistan–Afghanistan trade standoff is fast turning from a political dispute into an economic disaster. Both sides claim victory, yet both are bleeding revenue, jobs, and regional influence — while Iran and Central Asia quietly collect the gains.

The disruption in Pak–Afghan transit trade has become a contest of blame and bravado, but beneath the rhetoric lies a shared economic loss. Both countries are paying the price for political posturing.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has termed the situation a “blessing in disguise,” arguing that reduced cross-border movement will curb smuggling, terrorism, and market distortion. Yet, the security argument offers little comfort to exporters whose businesses now stand still.

Since mid-October, border crossings have remained closed, leaving thousands of trucks stranded and trade worth over US$45 million in limbo. Exporters of cement, textiles, footwear, fruits, and food items in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh are bearing the brunt. With more than 60 percent of Afghan imports already diverted to Iran, Central Asia, and Turkey, Pakistan risks losing both the Afghan and Central Asian markets.

For Afghanistan, Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar’s call to find alternate routes may project defiance and independence, but the costs are real. Afghan traders rely on Pakistan’s ports and goods, especially for food and medicines. Turning to Iran or Central Asia will lengthen routes and raise costs, pushing prices higher for Afghan consumers.

Meanwhile, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan quietly emerge as the real beneficiaries. Their ports and overland routes are gaining traction as Afghanistan diversifies its trade options.

In the end, neither Islamabad nor Kabul wins. The prolonged standoff damages trade, jobs, and investor confidence on both sides. What could have been a bridge of mutual economic gain has turned into another front of economic self-destruction.

The message is clear: political posturing may please leaders, but it impoverishes nations.

Growing Perception: US Is a Bankrupt Country

The United States projects itself as the unshakable center of global power — militarily unmatched, technologically advanced, and economically dominant. Yet beneath this grand image lies a fundamental contradiction: America is increasingly living on borrowed time, borrowed money, and borrowed global credibility. Its bankruptcy, though not yet declared on financial ledgers, is visible in the erosion of fiscal discipline, social priorities, and political purpose.

The US economy, long admired for innovation and dynamism, now moves more on hype than on hard production. Wall Street rises and falls on corporate storytelling rather than real growth. Speculation, not substance, drives asset prices, and the financial sector has grown far more influential than the industrial base that once defined American prosperity. The gap between finance and reality has become a structural weakness — a fragility disguised as success.

At the heart of this illusion lies a debt crisis that Washington refuses to confront. The national debt has surpassed US$35 trillion, over 120 percent of GDP. The US government borrows incessantly, financing deficits through Treasury Bills and an endless stream of freshly printed dollars. For now, this is sustainable because the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency — the unit of global trade and finance. But this privilege, often taken for granted, is not eternal. As emerging economies diversify their reserves and experiment with alternative payment systems, confidence in the dollar-centric order will inevitably weaken.

Equally troubling is the American addiction to war and global dominance. With more than 700 military bases in over 80 countries, the US spends more on defense than the next ten nations combined. Yet back home, its infrastructure crumbles, its healthcare system remains unaffordable, and its citizens face widening income inequality. The contrast between its external ambition and internal neglect reflects a deeper moral and strategic exhaustion.

The recent government shutdown again exposed this contradiction. The political elite could not agree on basic governance but remained united in approving billions for military aid abroad. This is not patriotism — it is paralysis. It reveals a political class more committed to confrontation than correction.

America’s bankruptcy is therefore multidimensional. Financially, it depends on debt; politically, it depends on division; and morally, it depends on militarism. The United States can print dollars, but it cannot print trust, social cohesion, or global respect. Unless it redirects its resources from war-making to nation-building, its decline will not be a distant forecast — it will be a lived reality.

The world still looks to Washington for leadership, but leadership built on debt and deception is unsustainable. True strength lies not in weapons or markets but in the welfare of citizens and the integrity of governance. On both counts, America today stands dangerously overdrawn