Future of dark fleet after Ukraine war ends

According to the Seatrade Maritimes News, three years on from Russian invasion of Ukraine some kind of peace agreement is looking increasingly possible with talks between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine officials saying a minerals deal with the US has been agreed. There are though still significant hurdles to be overcome between all sides in United States, Europe, Ukraine and Russia.

If a peace deal is agreed and sanctions on Russia by the United States, European Union, and Britain are rolled back it raises the question of what will happen to the shadow fleet of mainly elderly, poorly maintained tankers that are currently serving the sanction Russian oil trades.

The shadow or dark fleet of over 1,000 vessel is not solely the result of Russian invasion as some ships do also serve sanctioned trades with the likes of Iran and Venezuela, the large majority of the fleet has grown out of employment on Russian oil trades.

The question of what would happen with the shadow fleet if war in the Ukraine ends was one that a conference panel on commodities shipping in Singapore last week grappled with.

Peter Kolding, VP Commercial & Management for tanker owner Hafnia noted that given Russian business was comparatively high risk due to sanctions there was a premium for vessels on those trades.

“Those trades are operated by the oldest part of the fleet and good parts of that fleet would in an ordinary world probably be on a beach now to be scrapped, but they've been kept alive because of the premiums on the trade. If the war ends and the sanctions are lifted, those trades will go back with mainstream players requiring mainstream ships,” he told delegates at the conference during Commodity Trading Week Asia.

The elderly vessels currently employed in the shadow fleet would likely have difficulty finding employment on other trades resulting in ships gradually being sent for scrap.

Capt Subhangshu Dutt, Managing Director of tanker owner OM Maritime, agreed that the shadow fleet would have great difficulty in finding employment, and would likely not pass even the first round of vetting with oil majors. However, some might be used by intermediate traders or teapot refineries.

The tanker markets have benefitted over the last three years from the change in trading patterns and increased in tonne miles brought about by sanctions and tightening demand and supply balance.

Kolding noted that while the end of the war and return to previous trading patterns would be negative in terms of ton miles it would also trigger a considerable amount of scrapping from the shadow fleet so these factors would balance each other out. “So, from a Hafnia perspective we don't see an end to the war and an end to sanctions as a main negative anymore.”

However, there would be a time lag between the ending of sanctions and the large-scale scrapping of vessels in the shadow fleet that would put pressure on tanker rates.

Kolding estimated a period of 12 – 18 months where the market would feel some pain before owners were pushed into scrapping older, unprofitable ships.

 

Germany: Merz to host war criminal Netanyahu

Friedrich Merz, expected to be Germany’s next chancellor, told reporters on Monday that he would make sure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can visit Germany despite an arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip.

By inviting Netanyahu to Germany, Merz is emboldening the Israeli war criminals, violating the ICC statute, and presenting himself as subservient to the butcher of Gaza.

“In the event that he [Netanyahu] plans to visit Germany, I have promised myself that we will find a way to ensure that he can visit Germany and leave again without being arrested,” Merz said from Berlin.

Germany says it has been a strong backer of the ICC. After the ICC’s decision against Netanyahu and his war minister Yoav Gallant in November, a German government spokesperson said, “The federal government was involved in the drafting of the ICC statute and is one of the ICC’s biggest supporters. This position is also a result of German history.”

To the shock of the international community, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government was the biggest supporter of the Netanyahu regime in its 16-month barbaric acts in Gaza. Germany has also been the second biggest supplier of deadly arms to Israel after the United States. However, it seems that Merz, still not forming a government, wants to present himself as a stronger supporter of Israel.

As a member state of the court, Germany is required to detain suspects facing arrest warrants if they set foot on their soil, but the incoming Marz government is sending signals that it is joining certain countries, including the United States, which are defying international order.

Viktor Orban was the first European leader who invited Netanyahu to visit Hungary in a show of disdain for the ICC ruling. Now, Merz is following in the footsteps of Orban, whose policies are not in conformity with the European Union.

Merz said, “I think it’s a really absurd idea that an Israeli prime minister can’t visit the Federal Republic of Germany. He will be able to visit Germany.”

Contrary to Merz’s claim, it is absurd to invite a war criminal to Germany as the most important member of the EU and as a country rightly or wrongly considered the most law-abiding nation.

Netanyahu is already buoyed that he has been invited to make a trip to Germany. His office said in a statement that Merz had invited the prime minister to make an official visit to Germany, in overt defiance of the scandalous International Criminal Court decision to label the Prime Minister a war criminal.

Before Merz welcomed Netanyahu’s possible future visit to Germany, the Biden administration and hawks in the American Congress had demonized the ICC to the extent that Senator Tom Cotton had threatened military action against the ICC and insulted its chief prosecutor Karim Khan.

Cotton said, “The ICC is a kangaroo court and Karim Khan is a deranged fanatic.”

The statement by Merz has even irritated the ICC, saying that states have a legal obligation to enforce its decisions. It said, “It is not for states to unilaterally determine the soundness of the court’s legal decisions.”

Merz either has been too busy to notice what degree of crimes Netanyahu and lieutenants have been doing in Gaza or he does not care about the tragedies that the Gazans have gone through.

It is not necessary to mention the horrific crimes that Israel committed in Gaza. They are obvious to the world. It is just enough to notice that thousands of Palestinians, mostly women and children, are still missing under the rubble.

In its November ruling, the ICC said there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that Gallant and Netanyahu “intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies, as well as fuel and electricity.”

Naturally, Merz like other Germans must repent what Germany did against Jews during World War II which is famous as the Holocaust.

Merz must be reminded that Israel committed another Holocaust against the Palestinians in the third decade of the 21st century.

 

TRACECA meeting begins today in Tehran

Iran is hosting the 17th meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission of the Europe-Caucasus-Asia Transport Corridor (TRACECA) for the first time on Wednesday, February 26, the head of the International Affairs Center at Iran's Transport and Urban Development Ministry said.

According to a report by the ministry, Amin Taraffo’ stated that a preliminary meeting of TRACECA national secretaries was held on February 25 to review and finalize documents for decision-making at the main session the following day.

The official emphasized the significance of the event for Iran, noting that the meeting provides an opportunity to advance regional initiatives within the 14-member commission.

He added that Iran aims to leverage the platform to enhance transit cooperation and boost regional trade.

TRACECA is an international transport program involving the European Union and 12 member states of the Eastern European, Caucasus, and Central Asian region. 

The program aims at strengthening economic relations, trade, and transport in the regions of the Black Sea basin, South Caucasus, and Central Asia.

It has a permanent Secretariat, originally financed by the European Commission, in Baku, Azerbaijan, and a regional office in Odesa, Ukraine. Since 2009, the organization has been entirely financed by member countries.

TRACECA was established in May 1993 in Brussels, upon the signing of a Multilateral Agreement on International Transport for the development of transport initiatives (including the establishment and development of a road corridor) between the EU member states, Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asian countries. The program supports the political and economic independence of former Soviet Union republics through enhancing their access to European and global markets through road, rail and sea. 

The objectives of TRACECA were underlined by the Baku Initiative of 2004, followed by a further ministerial conference in Sofia, Bulgaria, in 2006.

TRACECA has five working groups: maritime transport, aviation, road and rail, transport security, and transport infrastructure.

In July 2023, it was announced for TRACECA to join the eTIR international system.

 

EU partially lifts sanctions on Syria

On Monday, foreign ministers of European Union (EU) decided to suspend a series of far-reaching sanctions against Syria to help the country's economic recovery and reconstruction after nearly 14 years of civil war.

According to Reuters, the Council decided to remove five financial entities (Industrial Bank, Popular Credit Bank, Saving Bank, Agricultural Cooperative Bank and Syrian Arab Airlines) from the list of entities subject to the freezing of funds and economic resources and to allow funds and economic resources to be made available to the Central Bank of Syria.

The EU has also suspended sectoral measures in the oil, gas, electricity, and transport sectors and introduced exemptions to the ban on banking relations between Syrian banks and financial institutions in the EU to facilitate transactions for humanitarian and reconstruction purposes, as well as for the energy and transport sectors.

The bloc will monitor the country’s situation to guarantee that suspensions remain appropriate with Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, stressing that "if everything does not go right, then we are also ready to put the sanctions back".

"Any kind of government needs to be all-inclusive and taking into account all the different groups that are in Syria,” she said.

Most of the EU's sanctions were imposed following Bashar al-Assad's violent crackdown on Syrian protesters in 2011, including broad restrictions on trade, financial transactions, and key industries such as energy and transport.

The sanctions led to the collapse of EU-Syria economic relations, with trade flows worth €396 million in 2023.

The regime of Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December last year by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has since been calling for the lifting of wide-ranging sanctions to help the war-torn country's economy.

There have also been calls to remove HTS and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa from international terrorist lists, but the Council decided to maintain such lists in relation to the al-Assad regime, as well as those on arms trafficking, dual-use goods, the chemical weapons sector, and illicit drug trafficking, among others.

The EU's blacklist, which was renewed in November, covers 318 individuals and 86 entities. All are subject to an assets freeze and a travel ban.

More than 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line and at least 16.5 million people across Syria rely on some form of humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs, according to a report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Last week, Human Rights Watch (HRW) warned that sweeping EU, US, and UK sanctions on Syria are hampering the country's economic recovery and preventing millions of Syrians from accessing essential services such as electricity, health care, water, and education.

“Rather than using broad sectoral sanctions as leverage for shifting political objectives, Western governments should recognize their direct harm to civilians and take meaningful steps to lift restrictions that impede access to basic rights,” said Hiba Zayadin, senior Syria researcher at HRW.

“A piecemeal approach of temporary exemptions and limited waivers is not enough. Sanctions that harm civilians should immediately be lifted, not refined,” Zayadin added.

Ships being rerouted to Suez Canal

Egypt's Suez Canal Authority chairman Osama Rabei said on Sunday that 47 ships have been rerouted from Cape of Good Hope to Suez Canal since the start of February, reports Reuters.

Earlier this month, Rabie said that the Red Sea crisis did not create a sustainable alternative route to the canal and that there were positive indicators for the return of stability in the region.

Houthi militants have attacked vessels in the Red Sea area since November 2023, disrupting global shipping by forcing vessels to avoid the nearby Suez Canal and reroute trade around Africa, raising shipping costs.

A point worth noting is that Houthis had decaled to target ships owned by Israel and ships carrying cargo to and from Israel. US ships came under attack after Yemeni ports and other installation came under US attack.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said in December the disruption cost Egypt around US$7 billion in less revenue from the Suez Canal in 2024.

 

Hassan Nasrallah and Iran

The massive funeral processions held for Sayyad Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on Sunday marked the end of an era, but also the beginning of a new one. Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for over three decades, was not only the movement’s most visible figure but also a key player in regional politics, reports Tehran Times.

Born in 1960 in a Shiite community in Beirut, Hassan Nasrallah developed a strong interest in Islam and politics, influenced by Imam Musa al-Sadr. He started in the Amal movement but joined the newly formed Hezbollah in 1982 after the Israeli invasion. His political career quickly ascended; by 1985, he was leading Hezbollah's Executive Council and joined the Shura Council. His frequent visits to Iran strengthened the alliance between Hezbollah and Iran under the Wilayat al-Faqih doctrine. 

A turning point came in 1992, when Abbas Mussawi, Hezbollah’s then-Secretary General, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike. Nasrallah, his closest confidant, took over the movement’s leadership and adopted a more uncompromising stance toward Israel.

During Mussawi’s funeral, he delivered a speech that would define Hezbollah’s trajectory, “We will continue on this path... even if we are martyred, even if our homes are destroyed over our heads, we will not abandon the choice of Islamic Resistance.”

From that moment on, his rhetoric left no room for ambiguity. Under his leadership, Hezbollah expanded its military capabilities, increased its influence in Lebanese politics, and strengthened its alliance with Iran.

The group’s ties with Tehran were not only ideological but also operational. Nasrallah’s longstanding relationship with Tehran shaped the group’s strategy and solidified its position as a major force in West Asia. 

Despite its close ties to Tehran, Hezbollah was never merely an extension of Iranian policy in the region. The notion that the movement operates as a proxy without autonomy has been challenged both inside and outside Lebanon.

The historical connection between Lebanese Shiites and Iran dates back centuries—long before Hezbollah’s creation in the 1980s.

In the 16th century, the Safavid dynasty invited Shiite clerics from the Lebanese region of Jabal Amil to help consolidate Twelver Shiism in Iran. Over the following centuries, thousands of Lebanese students traveled to Qom to study in Islamic seminaries, forging deep familial and political ties with the Iranian Shiite community. This interconnection grew stronger in the 20th century, when figures like Imam Musa al-Sadr and Mustafa Chamran played key roles in reshaping Shiite political identity in Lebanon.

Nasrallah himself consistently rejected the idea that Hezbollah was merely an artificial creation of Iran. He noted that the movement emerged organically as a response to the 1982 Israeli invasion. Nevertheless, he openly acknowledged the influence of the Islamic Revolution and Hezbollah’s alignment with the principles of Wilayat al-Faqih.

Beyond logistics and religious affinities, what binds Hezbollah and Iran is a shared political vision. Both see resistance to Western influence as a matter of survival.

Abdallah Safieddine, Hezbollah’s representative in Iran, once stated, “What unites us is our adherence to the principles of Wilayat al-Faqih, as well as our struggle against common enemies.”

Similarly, in a 2018 speech, Nasrallah made it clear that what binds Hezbollah and Iran is not military support, but a shared political vision.

“Westerners do not believe in things like ideology. Their biggest mistake is considering the Resistance merely as Iranian mercenaries,” he stated. According to Hezbollah’s leader, the West fails to understand that the Resistance does not operate under a logic of subordination but rather one of ideological harmony.

Nasrallah, who studied in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, Iraq, had long held the belief that the world is locked in a constant struggle between the oppressed (mostazafin) and the oppressors (mostakberin). When Hezbollah published its founding manifesto in 1985, the defense of the oppressed against the oppressors was one of its fundamental principles.

From this perspective, the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran is not based on a patron-client dynamic – as the West likes to portray – but on a political convergence. The concept of Wilayat al-Faqih—the authority of the leader of the Islamic revolution over the community—extends beyond the framework of the nation-state. For followers of this doctrine, Iran is not merely a country but the epicenter of an Islamic political-revolutionary project intended to serve as a model for the entire umma (Muslim community). This is why Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei is not seen solely as Iran’s leader but as a political authority beyond its borders.

Nasrallah has repeatedly asserted that Hezbollah does not operate under Tehran’s directives, “Alliance does not mean obedience. It does not mean that when one party makes a decision, others follow without questioning its motivations. That would be coercion, not alliance.” This independence is crucial to understanding the dynamics between both actors.

One of the most revealing episodes of this autonomy occurred during the Syrian war. According to Esmail Kowsari, a parliamentarian and member of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), it was Hezbollah that told Iran the two countries needed to enter the fight against Daesh terrorists.

Iranian General Hossein Hamedani confirmed in his memoirs that Nasrallah orchestrated the Resistance’s strategy in Syria and that even operations involving the IRGC were designed by Hezbollah.

Furthermore, various estimates suggest that even if Iran were to withdraw its support, Hezbollah could continue to operate independently. This demonstrates that the movement has built a self-sustaining structure and a financial network that extends beyond Iranian backing.

Labeling Hezbollah as a mere extension is reductive. The group is not simply an arm of Iran’s policies but an actor with its own decision-making and operational capabilities. Their relationship is better described as symbiotic, while they share strategic objectives and a common worldview, Hezbollah maintains autonomy in its decision-making.

The funeral of Nasrallah and Hashem Safi al-Din was not only a farewell for the Hezbollah leaders but also a politically significant event. It marked a pivotal moment for the Resistance in Lebanon amid escalating tensions with Israel.

It will provide an opportunity for the Lebanese people to demonstrate unity in an increasingly complex regional landscape. The message is clear: the Resistance remains steadfast and will not yield to external pressures.

At the funeral ceremony on Sunday, Hezbollah's fourth secretary-general, Sheikh Naim Qassem, repeated remarks previously delivered by Nasrallah 32 years ago at his predecessor's funeral. “Resistance has not ended. A new era of Resistance has just begun,” he said to a sea of mourners.

 

Pakistan: Torkham crossing remains closed

According to Saudi Gazette, Pakistani and Afghani border forces remained on high alert on Sunday as the Torkham crossing, a key trade and transit route between the two countries, remained shut for a second consecutive day following a dispute over the construction of a new checkpoint.

The border closure has halted all trade and passenger movement between Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province.

“Torkham border remains closed for all types of passenger and trade vehicles movement, and security forces on both sides are on alert,” a Pakistani security official stationed at the crossing told Anadolu.

No border flag meeting or communication committee talks have been scheduled to resolve the standoff, though efforts are reportedly underway to arrange discussions between officials.

The Torkham border is one of 18 crossings between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where decades of territorial disputes have led to frequent closures, disrupting trade and travel.

Tensions between the two countries have escalated since November 2023, when Pakistan launched a crackdown on illegal foreigners, mostly targeting Afghan refugees, and initiated their forced deportation.

Islamabad has also accused Afghanistan-based militants linked to the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of carrying out cross-border attacks, claiming that the Taliban government in Kabul has failed to act against them—an allegation the Taliban denies.

In December 2024, the Pakistani military launched airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province, marking the second such cross-border military operation since March 2024.

The Afghan Taliban claimed that Pakistani jets killed 46 civilians, including women and children, while Islamabad denied that civilians were targeted.