Amidst the ongoing concerns about the future of Syria and
before the expiration of the sixty-day truce, Lebanon is witnessing a session
to elect the President of the Republic on Thursday. There is no internal consensus
on the candidate, but external pressure is mounting to elect Lebanese Army
Commander General Joseph Aoun.
Amos Hochstein, the US presidential envoy, who met with
Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Parliament, in Beirut said that the Israeli
withdrawal from the south will continue until the “deployment of the Lebanese
Army in the south, reaching the Blue Line” is complete.
Hochstein pointed out that the process is difficult, but it
is an opportunity “to not think about external forces, but to focus on
rebuilding the economy and implementing the necessary reforms that will allow
investment and return the country to prosperity.”
Accompanied by Lisa Johnson, US Ambassador to Beirut, and US
General Jasper Jeffers, the head of the Quintet Committee (United States,
France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar), Hochstein also met with caretaker Prime
Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail.
Hochstein called the meeting with Mikati was very
constructive, saying, “I think Mikati has shown great leadership in getting to
this point … We talked about what the government needs to do to continue to
implement this agreement and make sure that the country can benefit from it,
and reach prosperity and stability.”
Hochstein also visited Naqoura, where he chaired a third
meeting on the mechanism of the Quintet Committee’s work. He discussed
“technical military plans for the gradual withdrawal of the Israeli army from
the entire area south of the Litani.”
Yazid bin Farhan, an advisor on Lebanon affairs at the Saudi
Foreign Ministry, had also visited Lebanon, calling for the election of General
Joseph Aoun, as agreed upon by the members of the committee.
It is worth noting that Yazid bin Farhan was present at
Hochstein’s meeting with Faisal bin Farhan, the Saudi Foreign Minister, in
Riyadh, where they discussed “regional developments, especially in Lebanon.”
The Saudi envoy’s meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri was
described as “tense,” during which he confirmed that “Riyadh supports the
nomination of the army commander.”
Berri did not hide his anger, informing bin Farhan that this
proposal contradicted what he had agreed upon with the committee, demanding
“support for the candidate that the Lebanese agree upon, rather than for the
outside world.”
Berri said it is impossible to secure sufficient votes to amend
the constitution to elect the army commander. Additionally, he said, there is a
lack of agreement among Christians on it.
Berri recalled Aoun’s rigid relationship with many political
forces and the difficulty of reaching an understanding with him as was evident
from his unsteady relations with the defense ministers who succeeded each other
while he was in command of the army.
Saudi envoy Yazid bin Farhan also met with Samir Geagea,
leader of the Lebanese Forces, stressing his country’s intention to re-engage
in Lebanon’s political arena “on the condition that there is a legitimate
president [elected by consensus] who is strong and qualified to rule [official
institutions] and form a government whose [policy] is in line with him.”
Bin Farhan continued, “Saudi Arabia is interested in
Lebanon; the Lebanese must seize the opportunity because the world will be
preoccupied with Syria.”
Geagea frankly told the Saudi envoy that he does not support
the election of General Aoun.
“We have approached him more than once, but he did not
respond,” Geagea stated, recalling that Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the
Free Patriotic Movement also oppose his election, which means that “he will not
be able to obtain the 86 votes needed to be elected.”
According to sources, Geagea fears any way out during
Thursday’s session that would result in the election of a president “that does
not fit the requirements of the stage” or the availability of consensus on the
army commander.
For this reason, Geagea asked his loyal MPs to be vigilant
and to keep all options on the table, including withdrawing from the session or
dismantling its quorum.
Meanwhile, Hajj Mohammad Raad, head of the “Loyalty to the
Resistance” parliamentary bloc, had met with Berri, reaffirming the “complete
understanding” between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, and the “unity of
position regarding all internal files and political entitlements.”
During a press conference held at the site of Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah’s martyrdom, Wafiq Safa, head of Hezbollah’s Liaison and Coordination
Unit, underscored that “Hezbollah’s only veto” would be on “the election of
Samir Geagea because he is a project of sedition and war” and not on any
candidate agreed upon by the parliamentary blocs.
For his part, Hussein Hajj Hassan, a Hezbollah MP, explained
that this position does not mean that Hezbollah has backed down from its only
declared candidate, namely Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada Movement, nor
does it mean that it supports or rejects the army commander.
It is worth noting that Geagea declared, during one of the
internal sessions, that after the Israeli war destroys Hezbollah, we will
negotiate with him on the presidency of the republic after he becomes weak.
Following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government, Geagea
foolishly thought that the “victory” of his American-Israeli ally would achieve
his only chance to become president, even if he was forced as his predecessor
Bashir Gemayel did. Nevertheless, his Saudi allies frustrated him by announcing
their support for the election of the army commander.
On August 23, 1982, during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon,
Gemayel was elected President of the Republic. However, he was assassinated on
September 14 before he could assume office, by the resistance fighter Habib Al-Shartouni
because of his crimes during the civil war and his deep relationship with
Israel.
At the
moment, all that Geagea cares about is to thwart Thursday’s session until
Trump’s inauguration, as he bets on three variables: escalating pressure on
Hezbollah; resuming aggression against Lebanon; and launching an aggression
against Iran.
Geagea hopes to postpone the presidential elections that
have been pending since 2022 and hold early parliamentary elections that will
end what he calls Amal and Hezbollah’s “monopoly” over the Shiite seats, which
will facilitate the election of an alternative to Speaker Berri. This will tip
the balance in his favor. Hence, his presidential dream will come true.
As a reminder, during the 2022 elections, Hezbollah won the
347,171 preferential votes, an increase of 3,951 votes compared to the 2018
elections. MP Mohammad Raad won the highest number of preferential votes in all
of Lebanon: 48,543 votes, followed by his fellow MP Sayyed Hassan Fadlallah:
43,235 votes, then Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri with 42,091 votes.
Courtesy: Tehran Times
