Trump's Victory: Implications for Pakistan

Donald Trump’s second term as the US President is expected to have profound impact on geopolitics and global asset/ commodity prices, which would ultimately have implications for the ongoing macro recovery in Pakistan.

There is a high probability of a “clean sweep” by the Republican Party (it is likely to take control of both the US Senate and House), which will give Trump greater ability to execute his campaign pledges.

Trump’s policies – cracking down on immigration and large import tariffs on China – are expected to be inflationary for the US economy and negative for global growth. If he is able to bring a quick end to both the wars, in Ukraine and Gaza, oil prices are likely to continue falling under the weight of weakening global demand.

There are various caveats to these expectations:

Global experts point to the strength of US institutions in checking/ taming some of the draconian policies Trump has pledged. Second, China has begun rolling out huge stimulus measures, both fiscal and monetary, to revive its ailing economy (particularly its large property sector). This could serve as a boost to global commodity prices.

For Pakistan, the prospect of lower or stable oil/ commodity prices is positive. US-China trade war improves the opportunity to attract Chinese industries into Pakistan. Certain exports out of Pakistan, including steel and textiles, may become more competitive in the US. But, it could be a challenge for Pakistan to execute CPEC Phase 2 in the face of deteriorating US-China relations.

At this stage, the event does not materially affect outlook of continued macro stability in Pakistan – continued disinflation and foreign exchange reserves buildup – and equity market re-rating,

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Inter Market Securities:

Oil prices are more likely to fall or stabilize around US$70/bbl over the medium term. Trump is likely to encourage greater shale oil production in the US, while at the same time, he would work to bring an end to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Global inflation could make a comeback as Trump promises to slap up to 60% import tariffs on China and up to 20% from elsewhere. He has also committed to deport illegal immigrants from the country – which could stoke another round of labor shortage in the United States.

US interest rates may remain elevated as the resurgent inflation could lead to a slowdown of rate cuts in the US, leading to a stronger greenback against other major currencies. This could mean that global equity flows into the emerging and frontier markets would remain weak.

Raising debt through Eurobonds could therefore become difficult for Pakistan. The USD index has appreciated 5% since September, while the US 10-year bond yield has risen to 4.5% from 3.6% by end September – both have risen in anticipation of Trump’s re-election.

Global growth could be slower and commodity prices, depressed if Trump administration impose higher import tariffs on China, then growth in China could be undermined (notwithstanding the stimulus measures the Chinese government has recently begun rolling out. This would spell an extended period of down-trending commodity prices and a global oversupply in some key commodities (steel, petrochemicals) and products (EVs).

Weak US participation in achieving global climate goals could reverse or slow down the recent trend of multilateral lenders (IMF, WB and ADB) ramping up loans to developing economies for building defense against climate change.

Possible implications for Pakistan

A decline in global commodity prices would maintain the dis-inflationary trend in Pakistan. However, a fresh wave of global inflation will be felt in Pakistan through a stronger greenback and imported inflation. At this stage, the brokerage house maintains it outlook for average inflation in Pakistan over the next 12 months to be around 9% and expect the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to cut the policy rate up to 11% by June 2025.

US-China trade war could make some exports out of Pakistan more competitive in the US, compared to imports from China. These would include HVA textiles, flat steel, tires and cement. However, if PKR-US$ remains stable while other regional currencies depreciate against the greenback, it could undermine the competitiveness of Pakistani exports.

Pakistan could see greater Chinese FDI. As Chinese industries would continue to set up facilities outside China to avoid import tariffs, some could potentially be set up in Pakistan. However, for this to happen, Pakistan would have to offer a more stable policy environment to Chinese investors, and the government may have to drop plans to renegotiate the power tariffs of CPEC power plants, in our view.   

 

Trump's comeback is remarkable

Donald Trump completed an extraordinary comeback early Wednesday morning, becoming the first president to win nonconsecutive terms in more than a century by defeating Vice President Harris in an unprecedented battle for the White House. The comeback is remarkable for a host of reasons.

The 45th president’s political career seemed to be over after he sought to overturn his 2020 election defeat and spurred his supporters to march on the Capitol, an event that led to a riot and the evacuation of Congress.

Trump became the first president ever to be twice impeached; was charged in four separate criminal cases; was found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case; and was convicted in criminal court of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

But Trump was buoyed by a fervently loyal support base — most of whom believe his narrative that he has been unfairly victimized by a corrupt political, legal and media establishment.

“We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible,” Trump told supporters during his West Palm Beach, Fla., victory speech in the early hours Wednesday, calling his win “a magnificent victory for the American people.”

He also gained from public dissatisfaction with President Biden’s record.

It all went wrong from early on for Harris

The writing was on the wall from early in the evening for Harris.The first warning sign was a very early call that Trump would win Florida. The result itself was no shock — but the fact Trump was winning by roughly double the 6-point edge that polling averages had predicted was ominous for the Democratic nominee.

The pro-Trump pattern continued for much of the night, with supposedly safe Democratic states such as Virginia and even New Jersey hanging undecided for uncomfortably long stretches for Team Harris, while Trump jumped into early leads in every swing state.

Harris left her event at Washington’s historic Howard University without speaking publicly. She was expected to speak later Wednesday.

Latino men swing heavily to Trump

Much media coverage in advance of Election Day had focused on whether Trump would make inroads with Black voters, especially Black men, or with younger voters.

In fact, changes within those demographic groups were modest — at least according to the current exit polls, which may still shift somewhat as fresh data is added.

But there was one real shock. Latino men shifted toward Trump by a breathtaking margin, according to the CNN exit polls.

In 2020, those exit polls showed Latino men voting for Biden over Trump by a 23-point margin, 59 percent to 36 percent.

The current iteration of Tuesday’s CNN exit poll showed them voting for Trump over Harris by a 10-point margin, 54 percent to 44 percent.

The astonishing 33-point swing is going to lead to a lot of searching and uncomfortable questions among Democrats.

Trump supporters will contend that his cultural conservatism and promise of a better economy helped turn the tide.

But that explanation doesn’t really make sense of why Latina women shifted only very slightly in their partisan support.

It’s tough to find a plausible argument that doesn’t include some level of sexism.

Harris, of course, now becomes the second female Democratic nominee to lose to Trump, after Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The abortion issue failed to make the difference

A lot of Democratic hopes were riding on the idea that women would come out in unprecedented numbers to elect the nation’s first female president, just two years after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. It didn’t happen.

There was a wide gender gap, to be sure — but the exit polls so far don’t indicate it was bigger in a meaningful way than four years ago.

On the contrary, women went for Biden over Trump by 15 points in 2020, according to the CNN exit polls. So far this year, the exit polls show Harris carrying female voters by just 10 points.

That doesn’t mean abortion has been transformed into a winning issue for Republicans — it hasn’t.

For example, a ballot initiative on abortion in Florida didn’t get the 60 percent supermajority it needed to pass. But a clear majority, about 57 percent, lined up on the liberal side of the question.

Still, the bottom line is that the abortion issue didn’t prove nearly as potent as Harris needed it to be.

There will be serious Democratic infighting

The result is a cataclysm for Democrats. Their nominee has lost to a man whom many in their party consider an active danger to American democracy. So, the finger-pointing will immediately begin.

Many Democrats will dwell on the sequence of events that led to Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July. That came after a debate debacle in late June.

The number of people who believe the president would have done better than Harris is vanishingly small. But his decision not to step aside after one term — and the party’s lack of appetite for a competitive primary against him — will be second-guessed by those who feel such a process would either have strengthened Harris or produced a better nominee.

The messaging of the Harris campaign will also be subject to harsh scrutiny.

Did she spend too much time arguing Trump was a “fascist” in a way that was merely preaching to the choir?

Was the attempt to win over disaffected Republican voters by campaigning with conservative figures such as former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) always doomed to fail?

Would a more vigorous concentration on working-class concerns have helped stanch Trump’s appeal, or would a more adventurous media strategy have paid dividends?

At some level, it’s possible these questions are unfair. Maybe the headwinds Harris faced on the economy — and as the deputy of a president with mediocre poll ratings — were just too stiff to overcome.

But that won’t stop those questions from being asked.

Trump might well have unified GOP government

Trump will have a Republican majority in the Senate — and quite possibly in the House as well.

Democrats were always going to have a hard time in the upper chamber, where they were on the defensive in several red-leaning states.

Deeply red West Virginia was always a near-certain loss once Democratic-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin announced he would retire. Republican Gov. Jim Justice was duly elected there.

Elsewhere, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) lost his seat to GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Incumbent Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) are in trouble too, though they could yet rally and prevail.

In the House, the picture remained unclear in Wednesday’s early hours, and may take several days to be settled. But it is certainly possible that the Republicans could retain a narrow majority.

If that comes to pass, it would complete a remarkable sweep by the GOP.

Courtesy: The Hill

 

Iran-Pakistan to finalize free trade agreement

Iranian Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Mohammad Atabak said a free trade agreement with Pakistan has been finalized and the list of commodity items subject to the agreement will be prepared and released in two months.

In a meeting between the Head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) Samad Hassanzadeh and Pakistani Ambassador to Iran Muhammad Mudassir Tipu in Tehran in late June, the officials stressed the need for Iran and Pakistan to exercise barter trade and free trade to materialize a US$10 billion trade target.

During a meeting between Atabak and Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Commerce Jam Kamal Khan in mid-October, the two sides discussed trade ties between the two countries, with both agreeing that economic exchanges should be promoted further.

The two ministers met in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad on the sidelines of the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Atabak told IRNA that he and the Pakistani minister discussed trade ties between the two countries and agreed to hold further talks in order to explore ways to remove obstacles to the promotion of bilateral trade.

“Considering the historical and cultural commonalities of the two countries, we should take advantage of the strong potentials to expand trade exchanges between Iran and Pakistan,” the minister stated.

He also said that he invited Kamal Khan to visit the Islamic Republic.

According to the official, the necessary measures will be taken to prepare an agreement to be signed between the two countries during the visit of the Pakistani minister to Iran.

He stated that the current amount of trade exchanges between the two countries is not acceptable from the point of view of both Iran and Pakistan, and considering the strong relations and common links of the two countries, the two sides are confident that they will be able to increase the volume of trade exchanges several times.

The Pakistani minister spoke with IRNA as well. He described his talks with the Iranian minister as constructive, and said that visiting Iran is on agenda of his plans.

“We had good talks with my Iranian counterpart and reached constructive agreements, and we believe that there are many remaining tasks that the two countries are determined to pursue,” he said.

In mid-July, the 11th meeting of the Joint Border Trade Committee of Iran and Pakistan opened in the southeastern Iranian city of Zahedan, where the two sides pursue the increase of bilateral trade to US$10 billion per annum.

Pakistan's Ambassador to Iran Muhammad Mudassir Tipu, who attended the meeting online, announced that Iranian and Pakistani delegations are scheduled to discuss the mechanism to increase mutual trade.

The Islamic Republic of Iran's consul general in Quetta, Pakistan's consul general in Zahedan, and other senior officials of Sistan-Baluchestan province took part in the meeting.

Such joint meetings are held to pave the way for reviewing obstacles, removing barriers, and developing trade and economic relations between the two friendly and neighboring countries.

The two sides make the necessary coordination to help improve trade and economic ties, exchange economic delegations, organize joint exhibitions, attract bilateral investment, and establish joint industrial centers and retail markets.

The head of the Pakistani delegation to the 11th meeting of the Joint Border Trade Committee said that Islamabad strongly supports the development of joint markets and investment, which can increase the level of trust between the two nations.

Irfan Javed added that Pakistan also calls for cooperation in the field of transportation because it can affect the livelihood of the people who are living in border regions.

The deputy coordinator of economic affairs of Sistan-Baluchestan governor’s office said that Iran is keen on expanding trade exchanges with Pakistan.

United States fails in keeping oil prices high

No sooner had OPEC Plus depressed market sentiment by admitting a potential rollover of its cuts into 2025, Iran reemerged as the main talking point of the markets.

Having downplayed the Israeli retaliatory strike, the oil markets are now anticipating an Iranian attack on Israel, using a large number of drones from Iraqi territory.

A semblance of geopolitical risk premium has lifted ICE Brent futures ahead of a particularly jittery week when the United States votes for its president.

OPEC Plus postponed its planned increase of oil production, bringing back the 2.2 million barrel per day output under eight countries’ voluntary cuts, citing concerns about soft oil demand, particularly on the heels of China’s slowing down, as well as rising non-OPEC supply.

In an attempt to retain its share in gas market, the US Treasury announced new sanctions imposed on Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 liquefaction terminal, Russia’s latest LNG project in the Arctic, targeting construction service provider Smart Solutions and four LNG tankers run by newly created UAE firms.

European majors flock into US gas, Norway’s state oil firm Equinor boosted its portfolio of non-operated US shale assets after it bought EQT’s gas interests in the northern Marcellus basin for US$1.25 billion, taking its stake to 40.7% as most of the assets are still operated by Expand Energy.

In an attempt to diversify its energy supplying countries, China’s top driller locked in Key Iraqi Deal. China’s top upstream firm CNOOC signed an exploration and production contract with Iraq to develop the onshore Block 7, with the state-owned firm holding 100% interest over a massive territory covering more than 6,000 km2 in Diwaniyah province.

US air and naval presence in Middle East

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered more warplanes and Navy ships to the Middle East to maintain US presence in the region as an aircraft carrier strike group is preparing to leave, the Pentagon announced Friday.

Austin ordered additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, a fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the region, press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement. 

“These forces will begin to arrive in coming months as the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group prepares to depart,” he added. 

Ryder did not say how many American forces will be in the region with the changes, but as many as 43,000 US troops have been there recently.

The bulked up US military stance comes as Israel has shown no sign of relenting in its war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and a separate conflict against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel also launched a retaliatory strike on Iran last week targeting military bases and weapons production. That followed Tehran’s strike on Israel exactly one month ago when it fired a barrage of about 180 missiles at the country.

Washington, while pressing for a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon, has made little progress on that front ahead of the US presidential election.

Two White House officials, Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, were in Israel on Thursday to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but they returned home on Friday with little to show.

In the meantime, US officials have repeatedly said it will defend Israel and US personnel and interests in the region, with the Pentagon last month sending roughly 100 American troops to Israel to operate a provided Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system.

The additional B-52 bombers are notable as it is the second time within a month that the US has ordered the warplanes to the Middle East, where it uses the aircraft to send a warning to Iran and its proxies.

“Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people,” Ryder said.

 

PSX daily trading volume up 30.6%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) started the week on a strong note, with KSE-100 index reaching its highest-ever closing at 90,864 points on Tuesday, closing the week ended on November 01. 2024 at 90,859, up by 0.96%WoW. Average daily traded volume was up 30.6%WoW to 649.2 million shares, from 497.1 million shares traded a week ago.

The momentum was fueled by anticipated continuation of monetary easing and the country reporting its first-ever quarterly budget surplus in over 20 years of PKR1.7 trillion during 1QFY25, coupled with strong corporate results.

Regrettably, Pakistan missed two of the IMF's quarterly targets: tax collection marking a shortfall of PKR90 billion, and cash surplus for the provinces, marking a shortfall of PKR182 billion.

CPI for the month was reported at 7.2%YoY, with real interest rate comfortably above 10% at current policy rate levels.

Trade deficit for October 2024 was reported at US$1.4 billion, with exports for the month at US$2.97 billion, up 4.9%MoM.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$116 million WoW at US$11.15 billion as of October 25, 2024.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at PKR277.7 to a US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Prime Minister visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar, 2) Saudi Arabia likely to finalize US$1.2 billion oil facility by end December this year, 3) Germany seeks COAS help over IPP deal termination, 4) MoUs signed with Pakistan increased to 34 and 5) T-Bills yields slip by 64-140bps ahead of inflation data.

Pharmaceutical, Wollen, and Leasing Companies were amongst the top performing sectors, while Inv.Banks/ Inv.Cos/ Securities Companies, Leather & Tanneries, and Engineering were amongst the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Banks/DFI with a net sell of US$13.0 million. Insurance and Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with an aggregate net buy of US$12.3 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: GLAXO, CHCC, NCPL, SYS, and KAPCO, while top laggards included: KOSM, NBP, PKGS, MUGHAL, and SRVI.

Market is expected to remain positive, with primary focus on the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where an anticipated rate cut could further bolster market momentum.

Despite the recent rally, valuations remain attractive, with the market trading at a P/E of 4.0x and offering a dividend yield of 11.4%.

AKD Securities recommend focusing on sectors that stand to benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yield stocks that are likely to re-rate as yields converge with fixed-income returns.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, MCB, UBL, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

 

 

Hezbollah attacks Israel

Two separate Hezbollah rocket attacks have killed seven people in northern Israel, authorities say — the deadliest day of such strikes in months, reports BBC.

An Israeli farmer and four foreign agricultural workers were killed when rockets landed near Metula, a town on the border with Lebanon.

Later, an Israeli woman and her adult son were killed in an olive grove near Kibbutz Afek, on the outskirts of the coastal city of Haifa.

Hezbollah said it had fired barrages of rockets toward the Krayot area north of Haifa and at Israeli forces south of the Lebanese town of Khiam, which is across the border from Metula.

The Israeli military identified two projectiles crossing from Lebanon and falling in an open area near Metula on Thursday morning. Four foreign workers who were killed were all Thai nationals.

The military established the zone at the end of September, just before it launched a ground invasion of Lebanon with the aim of destroying Hezbollah weapons and infrastructure.

Thursday’s second rocket attack reportedly hit an agricultural area near Kibbutz Afek, which is about 65km (40 miles) south-west of Metula and 28km from the Lebanese border.

The military said a total of 55 projectiles were fired towards the Western Galilee region, where the kibbutz is located, as well as the Central Galilee and Upper Galilee in the early afternoon. Some of the projectiles were intercepted and others fell in open areas, it added.

The deadly rocket attacks in northern Israel came as two US special envoys met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem to discuss a possible ceasefire deal to end the war with Hezbollah.

Israel went on the offensive against Hezbollah - which it proscribes as a terrorist organization - after almost a year of cross-border fighting sparked by the war in Gaza.

It said it wanted to ensure the safe return of tens of thousands of residents of northern Israeli border areas displaced by rocket attacks, which Hezbollah launched in support of Palestinians the day after its ally Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel on 7 October 2023.

More than 2,800 people have been killed in Lebanon since then, including 2,200 in the past five weeks, and 1.2 million others displaced, according to Lebanese authorities.

Israeli authorities say more than 60 people have been killed by Hezbollah rocket, drone, and missile attacks in northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. But dozens of paramedics and other emergency workers have been killed and injured since it intensified its air campaign against Hezbollah five weeks ago.

The military has previously accused Hezbollah of using ambulances to transport weapons and fighters. The IHS has denied having ties to military operations.