Thursday, 31 October 2024

Dollar hegemony in danger

The history shows that the world’s base currency can lose its position, as happened with Britain’s pound in the 20th century. The US economy is much smaller as a share of world output now than it was after WWII, when its dominance began. And now some investors are flagging concerns about the potential for chaotic images emanating from the US election that could undermine confidence in American rule-of-law and the broader political system.

In 2009, after the meltdown in US mortgage securities triggered the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, China’s central bank chief of the time issued a high-profile call to move the global financial system away from the dollar. 

Fifteen years later, it continues to reign supreme — having weathered the launch of trade wars under Donald Trump’s administration and a welter of US sanctions on other countries that showcased the risk, for some nations anyway, of keeping assets in dollars. The greenback remains the main currency of choice in global reserves and massively dominates the foreign-exchange market.

Multiple stewards of US economic policy over decades have highlighted the importance of democratic, transparent governance and respect for the law in underpinning the dollar’s role. A violent attempt to disrupt the transfer of power occurred in the wake of the last election, and had little impact on markets. But further instances could have consequences, some warn.

“You can’t be complacent around any of these things” with regard to the dollar, Robin Vince, CEO of BNY Mellon — one of the world’s largest custodians of financial assets — said in an interview last week. “As is the case with many tipping points, you don’t quite know when you’re approaching it until you go over the other side.”

Thierry Wizman, a three-decade Wall Street veteran, said “the American exceptionalism narrative could end if traders lose faith in US institutions.”

“The way that could happen in the next few weeks is if we have an election without a definitive result for several weeks, and where people can’t trust the institutions to adjudicate any of these disputes,” said Wizman, a global currency and rates strategist at Macquarie.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

 

 

Wednesday, 30 October 2024

Who is Sheikh Naim Qassem?

Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem has been elected as the new chief of the Lebanese resistance movement after his predecessor Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was martyred in an Israeli strike on southern Beirut last month.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah's Shura Council, the group's central decision-making body, appointed the 71-year-old cleric to the post.

“Based on faith in Allah Almighty…, adherence to Hezbollah’s principles and goals, and following the established procedure for the election of the Secretary-General, Hezbollah’s Shura Council has elected His Eminence Sheikh Naim Qassem as Secretary-General of Hezbollah, entrusting him with the blessed banner on this journey. We pray to the Almighty to grant him success in this honorable mission of leading Hezbollah and its Islamic resistance,” the council said in a statement, Press TV reported.

The statement also pledged to the fallen victims, fighters of the Islamic resistance as well as well the steadfast and loyal Lebanese nation that Hezbollah will stand by its principles, goals and path to keep the flame of resistance alive and its banner held high until final victory.

Sheikh Qassem is a veteran figure in Hezbollah, having served as deputy secretary general of the Lebanese resistance group since 1991.

He was appointed deputy secretary general under Hezbollah’s late secretary general, Abbas al-Musawi, who was killed by an Israeli helicopter attack in 1992, and remained in the role when Nasrallah became leader.

His political activism began in the Lebanese Amal Movement, founded in 1974. He left Amal in 1979, in the wake of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, which shaped the political thinking of many young Lebanese activists.

He took part in meetings that led to the formation of Hezbollah in 1982.

Sheikh Qassem has long been one of the leading spokesmen for Hezbollah, conducting many interviews with foreign media.

He was born in 1953 in Beirut’s Basta Tahta district, and his family originally hails from Kfar Fila town in Lebanon’s southern Nabatieh province.

 

Saudi Arabia convenes Arab Islamic Summit

Saudi Arabia has announced to hold a joint Arab-Islamic follow-up summit in the Kingdom on November 11, 2024 to discuss the continued Israeli aggression on the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, in addition to the current developments in the region.

This is in line with the directives of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and in continuation of the efforts made by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in coordination with leaders of other Arab and Islamic countries. The summit will be held as an extension of the joint Arab-Islamic summit held in Riyadh on November 11, 2023.

Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its condemnation and denunciation of the crimes and violations that are being perpetrated by the Israeli occupation authorities against the Palestinian people, apart from the continuing Israeli attacks and violations against the people of Lebanon.

This is in light of the Kingdom's follow-up of the current developments in the region, as well as the continued sinful Israeli aggression on the occupied Palestinian territories, and its expansion to include the Lebanese Republic in an attempt to undermine its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the serious repercussions of this aggression on the security and stability of the region, the Saudi Press Agency said in a statement.

Sunday, 27 October 2024

Bangladesh: Performance of interim government

Nearly three months have passed that the interim government (IG) has been in charge of a country devastated beyond comprehension. We the mere mortals, struggling to forget the nightmarish 15 years, can be forgiven for nurturing very high expectations from the new dispensation.

It will do us well to remember that the IG is not the caretaker government (CTG) of the past. It is very unique, given the circumstances in which it came to power—a popular youth-led uprising has validated not only the IG’s assumption of power but has also, ipso facto, granted approval for any and all legal actions it undertakes to rectify the damage to the nation’s institutions and agencies. The mutilation done to the nation would require more than run of the mill actions or traditional approach.

In passing it should be stressed that raising the issue of Hasina’s resignation at this point in time is out of place, some may see this as being ulteriorly motivated, and reeking of conspiracy.

It is of no consequence whether a person who assumed power in a dubious manner, was deposed through a popular uprising—there can be no greater mandate than this—and sought exile of their own volition, has tendered an official letter of resignation. We must admit that the president’s recent remarks regarding this have mystified us.

The various reform committee gives us a good idea of the sectoral reforms the IG wants to undertake. Unique situation requires unique response that may not necessarily conform to the normal methods and means of administering a country.

But while the IG goes about fixing things, it should keep the people informed about its policies and plan of action for rectification. The IG should keep in mind that although it is not bound by any timeframe and its framework of reference is very wide, its time limit is also not open-ended. And a “reasonable” timeframe is open to various interpretations. What the IG is doing should also be visible.

The first thing that still needs to be fully addressed is the administration, which seems to be influenced by the lingering presence of the Awami League. Reportedly, many beneficiaries of the past regime continue in important appointments. The longer they stay in the administration the more are the risks they pose to the successful implementation of the IG’s reform plans. The significance of the manufactured unrest in the RMG sector, sabotage of oil tankers, and various demands from different professional groups are well-orchestrated actions to nip the plans of the IG in the bud.

Apparently, it would seem that the administration is not moving fast enough for some quarter’s liking, and a feature post-revolution is the regime of intimidation and coercion imposed on certain quarters. While that is understandable under the circumstances, making haste while sorting out the muck of the last 15 years may be counterproductive.

The public has certain expectations as well as grievances, and some of these are manifested in the student outburst, demonstrated in their siege of the High Court for removal of judges appointed during the Hasina regime where personal fealty triumphed over qualification and merit. The latest outburst is against the person in Bangabhaban for reasons mentioned.

One of the gripes the students have, and justifiably so, is the continuation of some senior bureaucrats who thrived under the Hasina regime, and who were complicit in the destruction of the state institutions and misuse of the state agencies for partisan gains. This goes for all sectors.

The education sector was a target of the students too. But witch-hunting is not the answer. Admittedly, the public universities were caderised from the vice chancellor down to the junior most lecturer. Most of them did not meet the minimum requirements of the post. One might say that it was a long-term plan to destroy the backbone of the nation by destroying the education sector.

It would also seem that the process of accountability is not moving fast enough. One hears the question “Where have all the crooks gone, and how?” Indeed, one may ask, once again, where have all the crooks gone? And by crooks, I mean all those that sought sanctuary inside the safety of the cantonments across the country after the student-led revolution that has been anointed with the very appropriate appellation of Monsoon Revolution, and many others who made good their escape quite a few days after the assumption of office of the IG. In fact, there is a general suspicion that the beneficiaries of the previous government may still be calling the shots.

A passing reference was made to this subject in one of my previous columns, but time has come to accord the issue more than a cursory glance. It is my distinct impression that the matter has been deliberately swept under the carpet hoping that, Bangalee memory being short, the matter would be forgotten. Well, not so soon.

A few questions need to be answered by the relevant individuals in positions of responsibility. Feigning ignorance will not sit well with the common man, who feels that allowing those responsible for bringing so much misery to the people—through wanton loot and plunder, siphoning billions out of the country, and particularly those directly responsible for the deaths of a thousand and the maiming of several times more—soils the blood of the martyrs. They must be held accountable.

Of the 170 million Bangladeshis, only 600 or so sought refuge inside the military establishments. Among them were politicians and senior members of the law enforcing agencies. The question is why. They must have done something wrong that they feared would incur public wrath. In fact, these were the people who would have left the country sooner but somehow couldn’t. Some of their cleverer and smarter colleagues had abandoned the Awami League boat no sooner than they realized that it had started taking in water.

In fact, abandoning the followers and leaving the country furtively for safer places during hard times has been the hallmark of the party leadership. History will bear out my comments. Therefore, to see the leader living up to the party tradition after August 05 was not a surprise.

My question is, in the future, will highly secured places within the country be used as sanctuaries for those responsible for killing democracy, looting public wealth, and committing the kinds of misdeeds that those seeking protection in the cantonments are alleged to have committed? Additionally, we are still at a loss to explain how many of these individuals managed to leave the country and who guaranteed them a safe exit.

The ultimate goal is to hold a participatory all-inclusive and acceptable election. Having said that, holding elections without fixing the systemic aberrations would take us back to square one. That would denigrate the sacrifice of the martyrs of the Monsoon Revolution. And it shall not be allowed to happen.

 Courtesy: Daily Star

Saturday, 26 October 2024

Philippines: US proxy in South China Sea region

Nothing better captures the Philippines' geostrategic indispensability than the unfolding drama over the deployment of the US Typhon missile system to the Southeast Asian nation.

The state-of-the-art midrange capability (MRC) weapons system, which has a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, is crucial to deterring any future Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Beijing has repeatedly warned Manila against hosting such platforms, thus raising the risk of a "Cuban missile crisis" style showdown in the future.

Richard Heydarian says, it is a geopolitical risk well worth taking if it allows the Southeast Asian nation to accelerate its own military modernization and, more broadly, its emergence as an increasingly capable and pivotal player in the Indo-Pacific.

Manila is not shying away from a potential diplomatic crisis over hosting the missile system. If anything, top Philippine officials are also exploring not just deployment but the acquisition of Typhons and other high-end American weapons system.

Trump also the warmonger

Biden administration leading the charge for Israel’s horrific genocide – now expanding into a broader, regional war – and fueling the war in Ukraine with no end in sight, Republicans are now working overtime to rebrand Donald Trump as a dove.

Let the world not forget:

 Trump nearly kicked off a full scale war with Iran by assassinating General Soleimani.

Trump with Democratic support, co-signed a coup in Bolivia and attempted a coup in Venezuela.

Donald Trump set the stage for Israel’s bloodbath in Gaza and the West Bank by formally recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Donald Trump is many things, a predator, a crude bigot and a con man.

While Democrats railed against Trump’s domestic agenda (most of the time) throughout his term, in virtually every instance the “Vote Blue No Matter Who” crowd threw their full weight behind Trump’s constant foreign provocations.

Trump’s warmongering ways for as long as he’s been a figure on the national stage – particularly during his term in the White House.

Trump and his allies are trying to rewrite history and make us forget his warmongering ways. But we know the truth.

The world must not forget that Trump and the Republicans are funded by the same weapons manufacturers and fossil fuel extractors as Democrats operating at every level of government.

They may dislike his uncouth rhetoric. They may finger-wag his racism. They may object to his weaponization of the courts and federal agencies (though they won’t hesitate to use the same in their own favor).

In co-signing genocide, provoking endless wars, and serving the forces of the American empire, Democrats and Donald Trump fit together hand in glove.

Syria intercept Israeli missile attack

Syrian air defense systems successfully intercepted an Israeli missile attack early Saturday, according to the state-run Sana news agency.

The strikes targeted military sites in the southern and central regions of Syria, with the assault commencing around 2300 GMT.

Missiles were reportedly launched from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and parts of Lebanon. Military sources indicated that several missiles were shot down, although efforts are ongoing to assess the full impact of the attack. There has been no immediate information regarding casualties or damage.

In a related development, Israel announced early Saturday that its military had conducted "precise strikes" against military targets in Iran.

Explosions were heard in Tehran as Israeli army spokesman Rear Adm. Danial Hagari confirmed that the Israel Defense Forces were targeting sites in Tehran, Meshed, and a power station in Karaj.