Putin in Kazakhstan to attend SCO meeting

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan on Wednesday for regional security and defence talks as well as a series of bilateral meetings, including with Chinese and Turkish leaders.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a forum established by China and Russia in 2001 as a guardian of security in the Eurasia region, will meet for their summit on July 3-4 in Kazakhstan's capital city of Astana.

"The leaders of the SCO member countries will discuss the current state and prospects for further deepening multifaceted cooperation within the organization and improving its activities," the Kremlin said in a statement on its website.

While the meeting is likely to be dominated by Russia and China, leaders or representatives of Azerbaijan, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan, are also expected to attend.

United Nation Secretary General Antonio Guterres, is also expected, Russian agencies said on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, Russia said Putin will hold series of bilateral talks, including with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is expected in Moscow this month, will not attend and the country will be represented by Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

At last year's virtual summit, the group issued a statement critical of what it said was the negative impact of "unilateral and unlimited expansion of global missile defence systems by certain countries or groups of countries", without directly referring to NATO's expansion and Western military assistance to Ukraine.

Can Germany ease Israel-Hezbollah tension?

German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) Deputy Director Ole Diehl met with Hezbollah's second-in-command, Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, on Saturday evening, the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news organization Al Akhkbar reported on Tuesday.

The meeting in Beirut was the second time the two officials met, as in January, the two met to discuss the Iranian proxy's attacks on the Jewish state.

According to the sources, “the session's atmosphere was positive.”

The discussion reportedly centered on the rising tensions between the Lebanese terror organization and Israel and how a full-scale war could be avoided.

The German envoy reportedly presented the Israeli desire to return the displaced residents of the North to their homes and that it would wage war on Hezbollah if necessary in order to accomplish this goal.

On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the residents of northern Israel "don’t feel safe to go to their homes" and that Israel had "lost sovereignty" over the northern portion of the country due to Hezbollah's attacks.

Diehl reportedly added that a mistake made by either party could result in a war between the two sides.

In response, Al Akhkbar reported that Qassem said any discussion of Hezbollah ceasing attacks on northern Israel was linked to the achievement of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Qassem's response echoed his comments to Diehl in January, where the Hezbollah deputy secretary-general reportedly "refused to discuss anything before Israel stops the war on Gaza. He urged Germany to put pressure on Israel to stop its aggression."

 

US comments on Iranian presidential election

It was but anticipated that United States would criticize the presidential election being held in Iran. The readers must keep in mind: 1) United States believes that Iran’s emergence as regional power is eroding its hegemony in the Middle East and 2) Israel considers Iran its worst enemy, because of its growing might and resistance against normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia.

Deputy Special Envoy for Iran Abram Paley on June 26, said “As the Iranian regime prepares for its presidential elections, the US unfortunately has no expectation of free and fair elections or fundamental change in Iran’s direction. Of course, the candidates have been hand-picked by the Guardian Council, but we also know the Iranian people lack access to even the most basic freedoms; necessary features of any democracy. In the face of the authoritarian regime’s long history of harassing and intimidating journalists, suppressing election coverage, and denying freedom of peaceful of assembly, we support the Iranian people. The United States will continue to defend human rights in Iran, shine a light on the regime’s repression, and support a free and democratic future.”

State Department spokesperson on June 30 said, "The elections in Iran are not free and fair.”

"Unfortunately, we have no expectation that these elections, whatever the outcome, will lead to fundamental change in Iran’s direction or more respect by the Iranian regime for the human rights of Iran’s citizens.”

State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel on July 01 said, "We’re not in a position to confirm or – any turnout number or speculate on what the implications of that might mean for the Iranian regime. Our viewpoint is that even the Iranian Government’s official numbers about turnout are most – like most other things as it relates to the Iranian regime, are unreliable. Our view is that these elections in Iran are not free and fair, and we have no expectation that these elections and whatever the outcome might be will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or lead the Iranian regime to offer more respect for human rights and more dignity for its citizens."

 

Iran fourth largest oil exporter in OPEC

Iran has become the fourth largest oil exporter within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to a surge in oil production and export.

Iran's oil and gas condensate exports have now reached their highest level since 2018, when the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and introduced tough economic sanctions against the country, targeting its oil sales in particular, according to a report by Vortexa, which provides data on the global energy sector.

The report emphasized that Iran's oil and gas condensate exports now account for 9% of OPEC's total crude oil and gas condensate exports.

Iran exported 1.56 million barrels of oil per day from January to May of this year, 250,000 bpd more than Kuwait and Nigeria. This has elevated Iran's ranking to the fourth spot among OPEC's largest crude oil exporters.

Despite Western sanctions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil and gas exports to 1.7 million bpd in May, the highest level in the past five years.

The report cited the rise in Chinese oil demand and the expansion of Iran's oil tanker fleet as the main factors contributing to the surge in Iran's oil exports.

Ever since the late Iranian President Ebrahiam Raisi took power in August 2021, the country’s oil exports have been on an upward trajectory.

The rise in Iran’s oil exports has taken place despite tough US sanctions which aimed to choke off Iran’s oil industry as a main source of revenue for the Islamic Republic.

Financial Times cited figures by data company Vortexa last month noting that Iran was exporting more oil than at any time for the past six years, giving its economy a US$35 billion a year boost.

The report said that Tehran sold an average of 1.56 million barrels a day during the first three months of 2024, almost all of it to China and its highest level since the third quarter of 2018.

“The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention,” said Fernando Ferreira, head of a geopolitical risk service at the Rapidan Energy Group in the United States.

Iran’s oil minister Javad Oji said in March that oil exports had “generated more than US $35 billion” in the preceding year.

On another occasion, he said that while Iran’s enemies wanted to stop its exports, “today, we can export oil anywhere we want, and with minimal discounts”.

 

Potential replacements of Joe Biden

US President Joe Biden’s campaign is intensely trying to quell speculation that he may drop out of the 2024 race following his lackluster debate performance last week. 

Most top Democrats have voiced support for Biden continuing in the race, while members of his family, including first lady Jill Biden, have declared they also want him to remain a candidate, casting doubt on the potential for replacing Biden. 

But if Biden were to step aside, several prominent Democrats could be waiting in the wings as possible successors.

Here are the top possible Biden replacements: 

Kamala Harris 

If Biden were to decide against seeking reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the most obvious choice to replace him. Harris has defended Biden and emphasized his ability to serve another term in recent days, as have most other top Democrats who could be considered. 

Serving in the country’s second-highest office has given her some amount of executive governing experience, and Biden choosing her as his running mate already made her one of the top possible candidates for the 2028 nomination. 

With the presidential primaries concluded, Harris is also the only possible contender who could claim some past electoral mandate for the nomination, with the country having indirectly elected her as first-in-line to the presidency four years ago and Democratic voters backing Biden this year with the knowledge that she is the running mate. 

But Harris has some vulnerabilities. Her favorability rating has often been even lower than Biden’s, though she has improved somewhat in the past couple months and has a higher net approval rating than Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight.

She also could be dogged with criticisms of the Biden administration’s policies like immigration, on which she was spearheading an initiative. 

Still, Democrats could take a hit by passing over the first female Black vice president as its nominee when having the chance because Black voters will be a key constituency. A poll last month showed Harris would perform better with Black voters than Biden. 

Gavin Newsom 

If Harris were to be passed over, the California Gov. Gavin Newsom would almost certainly be at or near the top of many Democratic delegates’ list to be the nominee. 

Newsom has become one of the most prominent Democrats in the country over the past few years, in part because of his defense of Biden and his sparring with prominent Republicans, most notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

Despite ongoing speculation of Newsom having presidential ambitions, he has repeatedly denied interest in running for president in 2024. Following Biden’s debate, he appeared in the spin room to argue against ditching Biden just because of one performance and called talk of Biden being replaced “unhelpful and unnecessary” in a fundraising pitch for the president on Friday. 

But if Biden were to step aside, Newsom would very likely receive significant calls to throw his hat in the ring. 

He would be able to run on a record as a two-term governor of one of the largest economies in the world and tout many accomplishments during his tenure for the left in the solidly blue state. He also has overcome an attempt to recall him and is seen as a top possibility to run in 2028. 

Gretchen Whitmer 

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer first came to office in 2018, boosted by the slogan “Fix the Damn Roads,” which put a pragmatic focus on repairing the state’s infrastructure. Since then, she has become a rising liberal star in the Democratic Party. 

Her easy reelection victory in 2022 brought with it Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate, marking the first time in decades that Democrats had a trifecta of power in Michigan. She was also reelected alongside the passage of a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, an initiative she championed. 

Whitmer has been able to notch key victories, including the repeal of the state’s decades-old abortion ban and a “right-to-work” law to prop up unions. 

Still, Whitmer has been among the clearest of the rumored choices that she is not angling to replace Biden and is fully behind him. 

Politico reported the Whitmer called Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon on Friday to make clear she was not responsible for her name being floated as a possible replacement and is willing to help Biden with the campaign. She appeared in an ad supporting the Biden-Harris ticket that she posted Sunday on her account on the social platform X. 

Pete Buttigieg 

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was relatively unknown when he first began his run for president in 2020 but gained traction and popularity as “Mayor Pete,” having served as the mayor of South Bend, Ind. 

Buttigieg became a close advocate for Biden throughout 2020, culminating in his selection as Transportation secretary, making him the first openly gay Cabinet secretary. His success has raised speculation that he may try for another presidential run down the line. 

In particular, he had a high-profile moment in 2021 as Congress passed and Biden signed the bipartisan infrastructure law into effect. 

Buttigieg’s youth would also be a sharp contrast to Biden despite having less experience than some other rumored possibilities. But he struggled in 2020 with rallying minority, and especially Black support, and could face controversy over the administration’s handling of the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment. 

Josh Shapiro 

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro gradually rose to higher office in his home state before being elected state attorney general and eventually governor in 2022. He has developed a reputation over his career as a more moderate Democrat but was elected after running on key liberal issues, like protecting abortion rights and raising the minimum wage. 

His ability to comfortably win the governorship in the battleground by almost 15 points, as well as his youthful energy, has sparked rumors he could be a future face of the party, possibly running for the Oval Office in four years. 

But he would also likely get some attention this year if Biden were to end his presidential bid. He has been one of Biden’s top surrogates and called on his fellow Democrats to put in the work necessary to get Biden elected, saying “hand-wringing” and “fretting” are not the answer. 

“Democrats, stop worrying and start working. We all have the responsibility here to do our part,” Shapiro said during a Friday interview on MSNBC. 

JB Pritzker 

As the governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker is already set to receive some attention next month as the host governor of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. This, along with his rising national profile, could yield some support for his name to be placed in contention for the nomination. 

Pritzker is in his second term as the head of the strongly Democratic-leaning state and has been an ardent defender of Biden throughout the 2024 campaign. Also one of Biden’s top surrogates, he defended the incumbent following special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents and pushed back against Democrats planning to vote for anyone other than Biden in November. 

Pritzker also received attention after his abortion-rights group announced a US$500,000 investment into efforts to enshrine abortion rights into the Florida state constitution. 

But as with other Biden surrogates rumored as future presidential candidates, Pritzker has remained behind Biden. 

As the debate was wrapping up on Thursday, Pritzker argued on X the choice was “clear” in picking Biden over Trump, saying, “Voters face a stark choice in November. A president with the experience to fight for hardworking families across the country vs a 34-count convicted felon who cares only about himself.” 

Andy Beshear 

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear pulled off an impressive reelection victory in his ruby-red state last year, improving his margin by a few points over his first election in 2019. 

That thrust his name into the national conversation as someone who may have a future in the party, even though he will be term-limited in the next election. The governor is widely popular, only in his mid-40s and managed to win statewide as a Democrat twice in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since the 1990s. 

Beshear addressed the possibility of Biden being replaced Monday, telling reporters he will support Biden as long as the president remains the Democratic nominee. 

“The debate performance was rough. It was a very bad night for the president, but he is still the candidate. Only he can make decisions about his future candidacy. So as long as he continues to be in the race, I support him,” he said. 

When pressed on whether he could replace Biden, Beshear said talk of serving is “flattering” but is a “reflection of all the good things going on in Kentucky.”

Courtesy: The Hill

Who could replace Joe Biden?

Replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would be highly complicated, and likely impossible, unless the president voluntarily decides to back out, on his own.

Politically and mechanically, it is nearly impossible to believe that Democrats would or could forcibly prevent Biden from becoming the nominee.

Right now, Biden is the only candidate for whom those attending the Democratic convention can even vote.

He received 99% of his party’s delegates in the primaries, and Democratic delegates have pledged to back whoever won their state’s contest in the first round of voting.

Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules require delegates that Biden won to pledge their support for his nomination unless Biden were to willingly decide to step down and free his delegates for another candidate. 

Before the convention opens on August 19, the DNC could change the rules to block Biden, but that would require a level of political support hard to imagine. A battle between pro- and anti-Biden factions at a convention to unseat him is highly unlikely to happen.

But the possibility is conceivable that party leaders, including former Presidents Obama and Clinton, might be convinced to talk to Biden about dropping out, Democratic sources told The Hill.

Biden ultimately puts the most value on advice from first lady Jill Biden and his sister, Valerie, two people who are largely considered the only voices who could truly change his mind.

A situation unique to 2024 may give party leaders even less time to sort out who will be the nominee than they normally would have. Ohio state law requires its ballot to be certified 90 days prior to the election. This year that falls on August 07, almost two weeks before the convention starts.

Despite Ohio state lawmakers trying to pass a bill to fix the issue, they deadlocked, leading DNC leaders to decide to virtually nominate Biden in advance of the deadline and the convention. If they plan to follow through on this, any change in the nominee would need to happen before Ohio’s deadline if the candidate is to be on the ballot in the state, notwithstanding a fix from Ohio lawmakers.

On Friday, party leaders were coalescing around Biden and not giving any signal that they might privately push for him to drop out.

His campaign, the White House and surrogates have pushed back forcefully on the idea, but others said if polls show his performance is hurting down-ballot candidates, it could become a real subject.

The natural successor to Biden would be Vice President Harris. But she wouldn’t be the automatic replacement, if Biden were to drop out.

While Biden won the primaries, his support won through those contests cannot be bestowed by Biden on Harris.

Harris would instead, at the convention or sooner, compete with other potential candidates who might see themselves as stronger candidates than the vice president against presumptive GOP nominee, former President Trump.

According to its bylaws, the DNC has general responsibility for the affairs of the party between national conventions, and those responsibilities include filling vacancies in the nominations for the office of the president and vice president.

If Biden exited, there would be a vacancy, and Harris would be the logical successor.

Politically, some said it was hard to believe, at this stage, that someone could replace Harris if Biden wanted her to be his replacement on a ticket. But there would almost certainly be prospective politicians, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who might try.

“This is the bigger pickle to replacing Biden. I don’t see the Democratic coalition surviving intact if Harris is not on the top of the ticket, and it’s hard to assure that would be the party consensus if they replace Biden,” a former DNC official said.

If there were more than one Democratic candidate vying to replace a withdrawn Biden as the party’s nominee, those prospective candidates would likely need to fight it out with state delegations at the August convention in Chicago.

This would set up a scenario that hasn’t been seen in American politics in decades: A contested convention that actually selects the party’s nominee.

Conservative groups have suggested they will file lawsuits around the country, potentially questioning the legality of the Democratic candidate’s name on the ballot, in such a situation.

But in an interview with the Associated Press, Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, noted the courts have consistently stayed out of political primaries as long as parties running them weren’t doing anything that would contradict other constitutional rights, such as voter suppression based on race.

 

United States fails in deterring Houthis

After half a year of conflict, the United States has failed to deter the Houthis from attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea as the Yemeni fighters continue to attack commercial boats and disrupt global trade, posing an increasingly difficult challenge for the far larger American military.  

Repeated US bombardments on Houthis positions have done little to stop the group that has managed to employ advanced weapons like surface-water drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles to fluster US troops. They have kept up the pace of attacks with more than 190 drone and missile launches since the effort began in October 2023. 

While the US has thwarted most Houthi attempts to damage merchant ships, the Yemeni fighters have now sunk or heavily damaged at least four commercial vessels, along with hijacking one. They have also killed four commercial sailors. 

The latest successful attack came on June 23, when the Houthis struck the Liberian-flagged and Greek-owned merchant ship the Trans World Navigator. The last vessel to sink, another Greek-owned ship, the Tutor, was on June 12.  

Bruce Bennett, an adjunct senior international defense researcher at RAND Corporation, said the Houthis are being fed by religious determination and a political motivation that embraces sacrifice, while their insurgent warfare, with weapons scattered across Yemen, pose a big challenge. 

“The US military is designed for regular warfare. It’s designed to take out an adversary who’s out there and targetable,” he said. “It’s really a very hard kind of military threat to get under control.” 

The conflict’s impact on global trade is only growing as it drags on. Earlier this month, the shipping industry sent out a scathing condemnation of the Houthis attacks, calling it “an unacceptable situation” and pushing for stronger international action to ensure the attacks “stop now.” 

While economic costs have largely been absorbed by the shipping industry and direct sellers for now, that could change. 

Adnan Mazarei, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who focuses on the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia, said traffic is down by 50% in the Red Sea corridor. The impact is regional, he added, mainly hitting Egypt, which collects shipping revenues through the Suez Canal, along with reducing port traffic for countries like Israel. 

An extended conflict could begin to impact other parts of the world, especially Europe, as increased shipping costs trickle down to the average consumer. That could significantly worsen if a possible approaching war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is realized, Mazarei added. 

“Unless there is a war in Lebanon, we are in a somewhat stable situation” he said. “Not a good situation, but I think things are somewhat stabilized.” 

The Houthis are launching drones and missiles daily from sites in Yemen, using fishing boats for radar-tracking and relying on advanced weapons shipments and other targeting assistance from Iran. 

The scope of their efforts has also expanded outside of the maritime corridor, with the Houthis in the past few months kidnapping dozens of United Nations relief works, Human Rights Watch said in a new report. 

The US Navy has been constantly on the alert since full engagement began in January to quickly shoot down drones and launch counterattacks on the rebel group’s assets.  

But the Houthis need to slip just one drone or missile through defenses to do damage, while the U.S. cannot miss once or risk a hit, said Cmdr. Eric Blomberg with the USS Laboon, a destroyer ship that has taken on the Houthis, who told The Associated Press that people may be unaware of “how deadly serious it is what we’re doing and how under threat the ships continue to be.” 

The USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group, made up of four ships and some 6,000 sailors, this month left the Middle East. The US is sending reinforcements to the region for the Eisenhower group, which has been deployed since October to deter regional escalation and counter the Houthis. 

Washington believes it can damage the rebels enough to stop the effectiveness of their campaign, though officials are now stressing the challenge of accomplishing that goal. 

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that the Houthis “miss a whole hell of a lot more than they hit” because of the Navy’s vigilance. 

Kirby explained the U.S. was focused on “taking away their capability to conduct the attacks” but also acknowledged the Houthis remain determined and well-supplied, despite the military working to intercept Iranian skiffs headed to Yemen. 

“They have instilled this sort of religious fervorness and made it some sort of cause célèbre, and when you do that, it becomes even more difficult,” he said. “We’re doing everything we can to try to degrade their capabilities, but they’re still getting supplied. They’re still getting resourced by Iran.”