One year Rule of Ebrahim Raisi: A comparison between present and past foreign policies

Ebrahim Raisi, President of Iran has been in power for one year. Today, a comparison is done between the foreign policies followed by him and his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. The general perception is that Raisi has been towing the same policy, still let us explore his priorities and key achievements.

Raisi has been relatively cautious and has not changed the overall direction of foreign policy. In Iran’s system, the president can guide foreign policy, but he is only one of several players at the Supreme National Security Council, the most powerful body for setting national security policy.

Raisi has little reason to rock the boat or take major risks because Iran’s position in the region is relatively strong. The west accuse Iran of sponsoring armed proxies and political allies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen that help project power and influence across the region.

Raisi’s priorities have been easing tensions with Iran’s neighbors and boosting ties with Asian powers, especially China and Russia. Raisi has also focused on expanding Iran’s trade with Central Asian countries. He has been active on the diplomatic front. As of July 2022, he had traveled to Oman, Qatar, Russia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Raisi’s first trip was to Tajikistan, where he participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in September 2021. The regional economic and security bloc, led by China and Russia, accepted Iran’s bid for membership 15 years after it applied.

Afghanistan

Raisi took office in August 2021 as the Taliban took over wide swaths of Afghanistan, which shares a 572-mile border with Iran. He welcomed the departure of US forces but cautiously engaged with the Taliban. Iran had supported opposition forces against the Taliban when it last ruled the country from 1996 to 2001. He has repeatedly called for an inclusive government that includes all political factions and reflects Afghanistan’s religious and ethnic diversity. Tensions have flared over sporadic altercations at border crossings. 

China

Under Raisi, Iran managed to increase oil exports to China. In January 2022, Iran reportedly exported more than 700,000 barrels per day – more than Iran exported before the reimposition of US sanctions in 2018. China has also continued to invest in a broad range of Iranian industries, including oil and gas, lumber, and light manufacturing. But this pattern had begun years ago.

Iraq

In August 2021, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian participated in a regional conference in Baghdad along with presidents, kings or foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. French President Emmanuel Macron also participated. The goal was to ease regional tensions. Iran continues to support an array of Shiite militias and political parties, which may be in a position to form a government more to their liking. 

Israel

Since Raisi took office, Israel has allegedly carried out several operations, including two drone strikes and an assassination, in Iran. But Iran’s responses have been surprisingly muted. In March 2022, Iran fired a dozen ballistic missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan. The IRGC claimed that it targeted Israeli strategic centers in Erbil. The other notable allegation was a plot to assassinate Israeli tourists in Istanbul. But those moves were relatively small compared to the alleged Iranian strike on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in 2019 or sabotage of Gulf shipping that occurred during Rouhani’s presidency.

Lebanon

Iran is often alleged for providing weapons, including missiles and drones, and funding to Hezbollah. The outfit has evolved into the strongest armed group in Lebanon and one of the most influential political players.

Oman

In May 2022, Raisi visited Muscat to sign deals for expanded cooperation on energy, transportation, education, and trade. 

Qatar

Raisi signed agreements on transportation, trade, tourism, energy, and education during a visit to Doha in February 2022. Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani visited Tehran to discuss ways to boost bilateral ties in May 2022. They also discussed diplomatic efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. 

Russia

In perhaps the most significant change, Iran has accelerated the expansion of ties to Russia despite the invasion of Ukraine, which has led to extensive Western sanctions on Russia. Raisi met Putin three times in the first seven months of 2022 alone. Russia has also shown interest in purchasing Iranian drones. On energy, the two countries have cooperated as part of OPEC Plus to try to keep oil prices high. But Russia has also started to heavily discount its oil to sell to China, putting it in competition with Iran.

Saudi Arabia 

Iran has continued a series of talks that began in April 2021 to restore diplomatic relations, which were severed in 2016. In July 2022, Iran announced its readiness to move talks to the political level. Iraq mediated the talks.

Syria

Iran continued to bolster the Assad regime, which has regained much territory from rebel and jihadi groups since the civil war broke out in 2011.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian made a rare visit to Abu Dhabi to pay respects following the death of President Sheikh Khalifa in May 2022. He said that the two countries were turning a new page after years of tensions. As of July, the UAE was considering sending an ambassador back to Tehran. The UAE had downgraded its ties with Iran in 2016. 

Yemen

Allegedly, Iran continued to provide weapons to the Houthi rebels. But it also welcomed the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and Yemeni government that began in April 2022.

 

Can Saudi Arabia-China-Russia-Iran alliance end the US hegemony in the region?

Saudi Arabia-China, Russia and Iran are getting closer to resist the US hegemony and Washington is definitely not happy with this coalition. Over the years Beijing has inked various strategic partnerships with the Arab states to push United States out of the region.

Lately the Biden administration tried to redefine the relationships with Saudi Arabia, having deteriorated in 2018 over the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. It may be recalled that Biden, after assuming the charge as the president of the country, had vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" state over Khashoggi's murder.

Biden is under tremendous pressure after having initiated proxy war in Ukraine. Not only the world but United States is bearing the brunt of higher energy prices, supply disruptions and historic high inflation.

Analysts believe Biden having failed in punishing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) changed his policy to mend relationships, but failed in securing more oil from Saudi Arabia and made little headway on Israeli-Palestinian relationship. 

Biden in his recent visit tried to reassure his allies in the Middle East that the U.S. will stay actively engaged amid fears that China and Russia could swiftly fill a leadership vacuum.

Countering China's growing influence in international politics, Russia's war in Ukraine and Iranian influence in the Middle East remain to be seen as the top priority of the Biden administration.

According to some analysts, the New Cold War has already been triggered and the world will see further intensification due to China’s growing economy, military modernization, superiority in Artificial Intelligence, and soft power domain.

China's bilateral trade with Arab world in 2021 crossed the figure of US$330 billion. The China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has 20 partners in the Middle East and North Africa while Beijing has inked 15 strategic partnerships with the Arab states in the last decade alone, causing enough trouble for Washington.

The region has rapidly been witnessing bloc politics. The US and China are on quest of promoting their ideologies and political clouts. Washington seeks to promote democratic values to reinforce the QUAD and New Quad in the Middle East.

China–Iran 25-year economic cooperation deal of US$400 billion enhances Beijing's influence in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean.

Biden, unlike his predecessor Trump, is trying to unite the US allies in the Middle East, cementing NATO, the New Asia-Pacific Economic Bloc, and reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to obtain relative political gains.

When Trump became the president of the country, he instead of visiting Canada (Ottawa is the first capital to be visited by the US presidents due to economic diplomacy) visited Saudi Arabia and inked an agreement, worth US$350 billion including a US$110 billion weapons deal. Many US analysts believe that Saudi Arabia is a lucrative market as far as the US military-industrial complex and foreign direct investments are concerned. Saudi Arabia can also be instrumental in eroding Iranian sway in the region.

The Middle East (West Asia) is unlikely to remain immune to the great powers’ competition. Legitimation of MBS remains to be seen as the tip of the iceberg. The only game in the town for Washington is China and Iran in the region.

People can still recall that Modi was the only person ever denied a US visa because of deliberately allowed anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat state in 2002 when he was the Chief Minister of the state resulted in the killing of more than 1,000. However, Modi turned out to be an apple's eye of the US as soon as he became prime minister of India. It appears the US is more concerned about its national interest and is least bothered with morality. According to Machiavelli school of thought “politics have no relation to morals”.  

China, Russia, and Iran are clearly in one bloc opposing the US hegemony. The Ukraine crisis has further been bolstering ties between Beijing, Moscow, and Iran. Biden’s statement clearly illustrates that aforementioned countries are predicated to be described as the new evil axis to the US in a bid to unite the allies to protect the democratic values and the prevailing international world order. 

One year Rule of Ebrahim Raisi: Comparing present and past Foreign Ministers

Ebrahim Raisi, President of Iran, often termed a hardliner by the west has now been in power for one year. Let us explore what are the major differences from his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. Today, a comparison is done between the two foreign ministers. 

Raisi has long expressed hardline views on both domestic and foreign policy. The United States sanctioned him in 2019, citing his role in domestic repression. Raisi is best known for serving on the so-called “death commission” that ordered the extrajudicial executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Raisi was critical of Rouhani in both his failed 2017 presidential campaign and his successful 2021 campaign.

Raisi, like all presidents, replaced the ministers of his predecessor. Rouhani’s cabinet included several ministers who were educated in the West or were open to engagement with the West. In contrast, Raisi team was largely educated in Iran and has favored boosting ties with Asian powers. Five of his ministers were designated under US sanctions.

The change in foreign ministers was a microcosm for the transition. Rouhani’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, spoke fluent English after receiving a BA and an MA from San Francisco State University, and an MA and PhD in international relations from the University of Denver. Zarif also served in New York as Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations from 2002 to 2007. As foreign minister (2013-2021), he played a key role in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal and developed a working relationship with Secretary of State John Kerry.

By contrast, Raisi’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaks fluent Arabic and stilted English. He received a PhD in international relations from the University of Tehran. During his career at the Foreign Ministry, he was posted to Iraq and Bahrain and had portfolios largely focused on the region. As Foreign Minister, his priorities are to improve relations with Iran’s neighbors as well as Asian countries. Amir-Abdollahian reportedly has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

In my next blog I will compare the foreign policies followed by the two ministers. Please allow me to say that the change in president and ministers has not translated into much of a shift. Raisi has generally continued down the same path as Rouhani on domestic and foreign policy.

Iran to continue constructive cooperation with OPEC

Iranian Oil Minister, Javad Oji said his country will continue constructive interactions with Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and will support the organization’s new Director General, Shana reported.

“As a founding member of OPEC, Iran will definitely continue its constructive interaction with OPEC and would effectively support the new Secretary General as well as the OPEC secretariat,” Oji said at the 31st OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held via video conference.

Honoring the memory of former OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and welcoming his replacement Haitham Al Ghais, the minister said, “I received the very sad news of the passing away of His Excellency Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Distinguished Secretary General OPEC. On behalf of the Government and people of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I would like to express my heartfelt condolences to Your Excellencies, particularly His Excellency Timipre Sylva, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Distinguished Government and Great People of Nigeria and the esteemed Staff of the OPEC Secretariat.”

“Undoubtedly, His Excellency’s round-the-clock efforts as the OPEC Secretary General to promote solidarity and unity among Member Countries, along with his trust in collective wisdom and efforts for creating understanding have always helped the Organization and its Members,” he added.

He also congratulated Haitham Al Ghais for assuming the position of the OPEC Secretary General, saying, “I am confident that your appointment will be a critical step in advancing the Organization, achieving the collective goals of the OPEC and its Members and the fair and forward-looking leadership of the OPEC Secretariat.”

“I am confident that the OPEC’s successes in recent years will continue in the future under the leadership of Al Ghais. I wish him every success in his new position during this challenging time for fossil fuels,” he added.

Chinese Foreign Minister scheduled to arrive in Dhaka today

Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi is scheduled to arrive in Dhaka today (Saturday) afternoon to discuss bilateral, regional and global issues with Bangladesh leadership. Agriculture Minister Muhammad Abdur Razzaque will receive the Chinese Foreign Minister.

According to reports, neither the Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka shared his program schedule in detail till the time till late evening.

Minister Wang is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Sunday morning apart from holding a bilateral meeting with his Bangladesh counterpart AK Abdul Momen the same day.

“This is going to be different from other bilateral visits. I can’t tell you in details at this moment as many things are still under last minute discussion,” another official familiar with the development told, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Awami League General Secretary and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader will host a dinner in honour of the Chinese Foreign Minister on Satuarday, said State Minister for Foreign Affairs Md Shahriar Alam.

Foreign Minister Momen is expected to return home Saturday night from Cambodia after attending the ASEAN Regional Forum meeting.

Talking to reporters at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Shahriar Alam said Bangladesh and China are likely to sign multiple MoUs and agreements during Wang’s visit.

He said the list is not finalized yet and it can be five-seven – new and renewal including cooperation on the disaster management and cultural exchange fronts.

Shahriar assured that the planned MoUs and agreements will be aligned with Bangladesh’s cultural, social and economic policy though the list is not finalized yet.

The state minister said the relationship between Bangladesh and China is “deep and wide” and the two countries will discuss areas of future cooperation.

Responding to a question, the state minister said Bangladesh will seek a stronger role from the Chinese government for early repatriation of the Rohingyas.

In January 2017, Wang had an hour-long stopover in Dhaka. This time, he is coming for a longer period.

The visit is taking place amid growing geopolitical tensions with impact on developing countries in the region while experts suggest Bangladesh to ensure a strategic balance amid these tensions.

Earlier, Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen said taking a new loan from China will not be a part of their agenda during the Chinese foreign minister’s Bangladesh visit.

“This time, the issue of taking loan afresh isn’t there at least,” he said on Wednesday when a reporter wanted to know whether Bangladesh is going to take a loan from China again.

Asked what message this visit carries amid the crisis in various parts of the world, the foreign secretary said it will be known once the Chinese foreign minister comes. “We are working on the visit. Things are yet to be finalized.”

He reiterated that the visit is part of the Chinese side’s routine visit to the region and also it is an opportunity to review the existing engagements between the two countries.

               

Biden celebrates one of the best weeks of his presidency

President Biden, who has been struggling with his approval polling for months amid a declining economy and international crises, started this weekend with one of the best weeks of his presidency. Let’s run through the week:

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in a drone strike. President Joe Biden said Monday in a speech from the White House. "I authorized a precision strike that would remove him from the battlefield, once and for all," Biden said.

Zawahiri, who just turned 71 years old, had remained a visible international symbol of the group, 11 years after the US killed Osama bin Laden. At one point, he acted as bin Laden's personal physician.

Zawahiri was killed in "a precise tailored airstrike" using two Hellfire missiles. The drone strike conducted on last Saturday was authorized by Biden following weeks of meetings with his Cabinet and key advisers, the official said on Monday, adding that no American personnel were on the ground in Kabul at the time of the strike.

Kansas voters turned out in droves to protect abortion access by a nearly 20-point margin. Keep in mind: The red state was the first to vote on abortion since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Voters in Kansas rejected a proposed state constitutional amendment Tuesday that would have said there was no right to an abortion in the state, according to The Associated Press.

Kansas was the first state to vote on abortion rights since the US Supreme Court handed down its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson's Women's Health Organization.

President Joe Biden hailed Tuesday's vote and called on Congress to pass a law to restore nationwide abortion rights that were provided by Roe.

"This vote makes clear what we know the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion and should have the right to make their own health care decisions," Biden said in a statement.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema agreed to support the reconciliation bill, giving Democrats enough votes to pass a major component of Biden’s agenda. There had been significant doubt for the entirety of Biden’s presidency that this deal would be made.

Sinema announced Thursday evening that she had reached a deal with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer that could pave the way for Democrats to pass their budget reconciliation package.

The announcement paves the way for Sinema to vote Saturday for a motion to proceed to a budget reconciliation package that would reform the tax code, tackle climate change, reduce the cost of prescription drugs and shrink the federal deficit.    

A robust July jobs report calmed fears that the US was headed into a recession. An aggregate 528,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in July, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department, a stunning gain that defied predictions of a slowdown.

Economists expected the US to have added roughly 250,000 jobs in July and keep the jobless rate at 3.6 percent, according to consensus estimates released before the report.

The stunning July jobs gain will raise questions about how close the US economy actually is to a recession after months of growing concern over a sharp slowdown. The resilience of the labor market also means the Federal Reserve may have more room — or at least feel more pressure — to rapidly raise interest rates and fight inflation without fears of triggering steep job losses.

Last but not the least, gasoline prices have continued to decline for more than 50 consecutive days.

 

China announces sanctions against Nancy Pelosi

Chinese foreign ministry has announced it will issue sanctions against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her direct family relatives after she travelled to Taiwan this week.

The ministry said Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was a serious violation of China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a serious violation of the one-China principle.

Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday night and met officials, including Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, before flying out on Wednesday afternoon. The trip was a stop on her Asian tour and drew the ire of Beijing.

Taiwanese leader says island ‘won’t provoke but will firmly defend’ amid mainland military drills

Websites in Taiwan, including those of its defence and foreign affairs ministries, have gone offline amid heightened tension with Beijing and as mainland China holds military exercises in areas surrounding the island.

Several government websites in Taiwan have been subjected to cyberattacks in the days following the arrival of Pelosi in Taiwan.

The websites of Taiwan’s National Defence Ministry and Foreign Affairs Ministry went down in the early hours of Friday but were soon back online. Both sites were also inaccessible late on Wednesday night.

Taiwan’s Chi Yang-class frigate Ning Yang is anchored at a harbour in Keelung city, Taiwan, on Friday. Beijing’s military started to a series of live-fire drills in six maritime areas around Taiwan’s main island to run until Sunday.

Lo Ping-cheng, Taiwan Cabinet spokesman, said on Thursday attack traffic during this period was about twice as high as past attacks.

“The peak was on Tuesday, and the attack traffic was 23 times the previous peak,” Lo said.

Lo said targets of recent cyberattacks on government departments include Taiwan’s presidential office and the defence and foreign affairs ministries.