One year Rule of Ebrahim Raisi: A comparison between present and past foreign policies

Ebrahim Raisi, President of Iran has been in power for one year. Today, a comparison is done between the foreign policies followed by him and his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. The general perception is that Raisi has been towing the same policy, still let us explore his priorities and key achievements.

Raisi has been relatively cautious and has not changed the overall direction of foreign policy. In Iran’s system, the president can guide foreign policy, but he is only one of several players at the Supreme National Security Council, the most powerful body for setting national security policy.

Raisi has little reason to rock the boat or take major risks because Iran’s position in the region is relatively strong. The west accuse Iran of sponsoring armed proxies and political allies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen that help project power and influence across the region.

Raisi’s priorities have been easing tensions with Iran’s neighbors and boosting ties with Asian powers, especially China and Russia. Raisi has also focused on expanding Iran’s trade with Central Asian countries. He has been active on the diplomatic front. As of July 2022, he had traveled to Oman, Qatar, Russia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Raisi’s first trip was to Tajikistan, where he participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in September 2021. The regional economic and security bloc, led by China and Russia, accepted Iran’s bid for membership 15 years after it applied.

Afghanistan

Raisi took office in August 2021 as the Taliban took over wide swaths of Afghanistan, which shares a 572-mile border with Iran. He welcomed the departure of US forces but cautiously engaged with the Taliban. Iran had supported opposition forces against the Taliban when it last ruled the country from 1996 to 2001. He has repeatedly called for an inclusive government that includes all political factions and reflects Afghanistan’s religious and ethnic diversity. Tensions have flared over sporadic altercations at border crossings. 

China

Under Raisi, Iran managed to increase oil exports to China. In January 2022, Iran reportedly exported more than 700,000 barrels per day – more than Iran exported before the reimposition of US sanctions in 2018. China has also continued to invest in a broad range of Iranian industries, including oil and gas, lumber, and light manufacturing. But this pattern had begun years ago.

Iraq

In August 2021, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian participated in a regional conference in Baghdad along with presidents, kings or foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. French President Emmanuel Macron also participated. The goal was to ease regional tensions. Iran continues to support an array of Shiite militias and political parties, which may be in a position to form a government more to their liking. 

Israel

Since Raisi took office, Israel has allegedly carried out several operations, including two drone strikes and an assassination, in Iran. But Iran’s responses have been surprisingly muted. In March 2022, Iran fired a dozen ballistic missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan. The IRGC claimed that it targeted Israeli strategic centers in Erbil. The other notable allegation was a plot to assassinate Israeli tourists in Istanbul. But those moves were relatively small compared to the alleged Iranian strike on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in 2019 or sabotage of Gulf shipping that occurred during Rouhani’s presidency.

Lebanon

Iran is often alleged for providing weapons, including missiles and drones, and funding to Hezbollah. The outfit has evolved into the strongest armed group in Lebanon and one of the most influential political players.

Oman

In May 2022, Raisi visited Muscat to sign deals for expanded cooperation on energy, transportation, education, and trade. 

Qatar

Raisi signed agreements on transportation, trade, tourism, energy, and education during a visit to Doha in February 2022. Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani visited Tehran to discuss ways to boost bilateral ties in May 2022. They also discussed diplomatic efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. 

Russia

In perhaps the most significant change, Iran has accelerated the expansion of ties to Russia despite the invasion of Ukraine, which has led to extensive Western sanctions on Russia. Raisi met Putin three times in the first seven months of 2022 alone. Russia has also shown interest in purchasing Iranian drones. On energy, the two countries have cooperated as part of OPEC Plus to try to keep oil prices high. But Russia has also started to heavily discount its oil to sell to China, putting it in competition with Iran.

Saudi Arabia 

Iran has continued a series of talks that began in April 2021 to restore diplomatic relations, which were severed in 2016. In July 2022, Iran announced its readiness to move talks to the political level. Iraq mediated the talks.

Syria

Iran continued to bolster the Assad regime, which has regained much territory from rebel and jihadi groups since the civil war broke out in 2011.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian made a rare visit to Abu Dhabi to pay respects following the death of President Sheikh Khalifa in May 2022. He said that the two countries were turning a new page after years of tensions. As of July, the UAE was considering sending an ambassador back to Tehran. The UAE had downgraded its ties with Iran in 2016. 

Yemen

Allegedly, Iran continued to provide weapons to the Houthi rebels. But it also welcomed the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and Yemeni government that began in April 2022.

 

One year Rule of Ebrahim Raisi: Comparing present and past Foreign Ministers

Ebrahim Raisi, President of Iran, often termed a hardliner by the west has now been in power for one year. Let us explore what are the major differences from his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. Today, a comparison is done between the two foreign ministers. 

Raisi has long expressed hardline views on both domestic and foreign policy. The United States sanctioned him in 2019, citing his role in domestic repression. Raisi is best known for serving on the so-called “death commission” that ordered the extrajudicial executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Raisi was critical of Rouhani in both his failed 2017 presidential campaign and his successful 2021 campaign.

Raisi, like all presidents, replaced the ministers of his predecessor. Rouhani’s cabinet included several ministers who were educated in the West or were open to engagement with the West. In contrast, Raisi team was largely educated in Iran and has favored boosting ties with Asian powers. Five of his ministers were designated under US sanctions.

The change in foreign ministers was a microcosm for the transition. Rouhani’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, spoke fluent English after receiving a BA and an MA from San Francisco State University, and an MA and PhD in international relations from the University of Denver. Zarif also served in New York as Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations from 2002 to 2007. As foreign minister (2013-2021), he played a key role in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal and developed a working relationship with Secretary of State John Kerry.

By contrast, Raisi’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaks fluent Arabic and stilted English. He received a PhD in international relations from the University of Tehran. During his career at the Foreign Ministry, he was posted to Iraq and Bahrain and had portfolios largely focused on the region. As Foreign Minister, his priorities are to improve relations with Iran’s neighbors as well as Asian countries. Amir-Abdollahian reportedly has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

In my next blog I will compare the foreign policies followed by the two ministers. Please allow me to say that the change in president and ministers has not translated into much of a shift. Raisi has generally continued down the same path as Rouhani on domestic and foreign policy.