Bilawal Bhutto Zardari invited by Antony Blinken to attend food security meeting at UN headquarters

Reportedly top-level contacts between Pakistan and the United States recommenced on Friday with Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and inviting him to attend a food security meeting at the UN headquarters in New York on May 18, 2022.

The two-day ministerial conference will focus on the threat to global food security, triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and will be chaired by Blinken himself.

Such encouraging statements were rare during the PTI regime and the phone call to Bilawal was the first contact between the foreign ministers of the two countries in quite a while. On September 24, 2021, then Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi had met Secretary Blinken on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York.

Pakistan is also exploring the possibility of bringing Bilawal to Washington for a separate meeting with Secretary Blinken. “Why wait? Why not try to arrange a meeting now?” said a diplomatic source when asked if Pakistan was seeking a Bilawal-Blinken meeting later this month.

 “Received a call from Secretary Blinken. Grateful for warm felicitations on my assumption of office,” Bilawal said in a tweet he posted after the call.

“Exchanged views on strengthening mutually beneficial, broad-based relationship, promotion of peace, development and security and agreed engagement with mutual respect is the way forward between the US and Pakistan,” he wrote.

The two-day ministerial meeting that Pakistan’s young Foreign Minister has been invited to precedes a UN Security Council debate on ‘Conflict and Food Security’.

The US says that since the February 24 invasion, Russia has blocked Ukraine’s ports, causing the suspension of food supplies to the Middle East and Africa.

Pakistan’s participation in a UN meeting that highlights the problems caused by the Russian invasion would be a major departure from the policies of the previous PTI government.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan clearly annoyed the US and other Western powers by visiting Moscow on the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Later, he claimed that the US “conspired” with Pakistani opposition parties to oust him and displays a diplomatic cable to support his claim.

Washington has rejected his claim, saying that although it backs the democratic process in Pakistan, it does not support any party or individual. Such terse exchanges between Islamabad and Washington further strained an already tense relationship.

But since Khan’s departure, the Biden administration has issued almost a dozen statements underlining its desire to re-engaging with Pakistan.

The ministerial conference in New York would be Bilawal’s first participation in a multilateral meeting since becoming foreign minister late last month.

A source, privy to the conversation, while confirming the invitation, hoped that it works out. Secretary Blinken had called to greet the new Foreign Minister, but the conversation continued for nearly fifty minutes, in which both sides discussed various aspects of the bilateral cooperation and expressed keen interest in re-engaging.

“The conversation went very well,” the source maintained.

The source also said that neither side spoke about the former PTI government’s allegation that the US conspired to topple it.

A US State Department readout of Friday’s call highlighted several key points of the conversation that focused on strengthening the bilateral relationship and working together to stabilize Afghanistan.

Spokesperson Ned Price said that Secretary Blinken reiterated the desire to strengthen our broad-based bilateral relationship. The secretary underscored the resolute US-Pakistan commitment to Afghan stability and combating terrorism. The Secretary and Foreign Minister also highlighted ongoing engagement on trade and investment, climate, energy, health, and education, Price added.

He noted that this year marks the 75th anniversary of US-Pakistani relations and “we look forward to strengthening our cooperation.”

In Islamabad, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued a statement, saying that in the phone call, Secretary Blinken expressed the desire to continue strengthening mutually beneficial US-Pakistan bilateral relationship.

Exchanging views on various aspects of US-Pakistan relations, the Foreign Minister underscored that Pakistan and the United States had a longstanding broad-based relationship, the statement added.

Bilawal said that a constructive and sustained engagement between the two countries on the basis of mutual respect and mutual interest was vital to promote peace, development and security in the region and beyond.

The Foreign Minister emphasized that Pakistan’s vision was focused on human development, regional connectivity, and a peaceful neighborhood.

Secretary Blinken also invited Pakistan to the Second Global Covid Summit, which is to be held virtually later this month.

 

US Senate adopts measures to stop revival of Iran nuclear deal

President, Joe Biden’s bid to revive the Iran nuclear deal flunked its first test in the US Senate, Politico reported. 16 Democrats voted with almost all Republicans to approve Sen. James Lankford’s motion.

Former US President Donald Trump had blacklisted the IRGC to make a return to the nuclear deal difficult, which he abandoned in May 2018.

Senators voted to endorse a Republican-led measure stating that any nuclear agreement with Tehran should also address what they claimed Iran’s support for terrorism in the region, and that the US should not lift sanctions on a branch of the Iranian military, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC).

While the measure itself was non-binding, the vote was hailed as a modest victory for Republicans who have pushed the Biden administration to walk away from the talks in Vienna.

 “We want a longer and stronger deal,” Sen. Cory Booker said when asked why he supported the measure. “I want the best deal possible that secures the region and prevents Iran from having a nuclear weapon.”

Contrary to claims by certain US Congresspersons, Iran has said it will not seek nuclear weapons with or without a nuclear deal.  The Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also banned production, stockpiling and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) including nuclear arms. 

Sen. Chris Murphy, who spoke on the Senate floor against the measure, suggested it could undermine the Biden administration’s efforts and said it would be an endorsement of the Donald Trump-era approach to Iran.

“To deny this administration the ability to enter into a nuclear agreement isn’t just folly, it’s downright dangerous…. We should not endorse four more years of this failed Iran policy,” Murphy said.

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin downplayed the vote and said he expects at least half of the Democrats who supported the Lankford motion would ultimately side with the Biden administration on a nuclear deal.

“It was a non-binding vote. It’s a political year,” Durbin said.

A State Department spokesperson reiterated that Biden is seeking a full return to the 2015 agreement and said “nothing in a nuclear deal would diminish our resolve to continue combating” Iran’s ballistic missile program and its policy in the region.

“If and when we conclude a deal on mutual return to full implementation of the 2015 deal, we will look forward to defending it in detail, and we are confident that it will have support in Congress and with the American people,” the spokesperson added.

Most Democrats, even those who opposed the initial deal, criticized Trump for pulling out of the agreement in 2018 and implementing a so-called maximum pressure campaign of sanctions and other punitive measures against Iran. Democrats say Trump’s policy failed, pushing Iran much closer to achieving full nuclear capabilities.

Iran has demanded that the US scrap the IRGC’s designation as a foreign terrorist organization as part of an eventual nuclear agreement. Allies of the Biden team have argued that the designation itself is largely symbolic. But dozens of Democrats, particularly in the House, have urged the Biden administration to resist delisting the IRGC.

Never ending tragedy of ready-made garment workers in Bangladesh

According to a Dhaka Tribune report, like every year, just before the Eid holidays, ready-made garment (RMG) workers had to resort to street processions demanding their full salary and bonus. 

Reports indicated that RMG workers demonstrated in Mirpur, Uttara, and Savar, causing traffic disruptions across Dhaka. Police dispersed them by shooting tear gas, injuring many workers.

Though people have become accustomed to seeing protests by RMG workers, these events are paradoxical if considered that the RMG industry is one of the pillars of the country’s growing economy. Yet, these workers face neglect and misery, and just before the Eid holidays, their tragedies become more apparent.

The recent protests started after the government on April 11, 2022 instructed factory owners to pay 15 days’ wages before the holiday. The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) claimed that factories were prepared to follow the directive, but “if any factory owners want to pay their workers for the full month, they can.”

This is unfortunate that the government advised not to disburse full salary — observers do not think any service holder would have liked it if they did not get their full monthly salary and bonus before the Eid holidays.

Since the government announced the directive to pay trunked salaries before Eid, workers’ leaders predicted unrest, but the factory owners repeatedly said there was no fear of turmoil. Since the decision was publicized, observers heard the news about road blockades demanding full salary. Skeptics claimed that worker leaders uttered the demands for their interests or served a vested quarter.

One could argue that in capitalism, workers’ well-being is hardly a concern for the industry owners. In addition, they are motivated by profit-making possibilities. However, this tendency to hold back some money before the workers go on holiday is a labour management strategy for ensuring their timely return. But from the workers’ perspective, not receiving salary on time is a significant breach of promise, as most workers would claim, “if we do not get our salary on time, there is no point in going to our family.”

Bangladesh will soon become a middle-income country, but when will RMG workers’ tragedies end?

The difficulties RMG workers usually face in getting their full salary and bonus seem incongruent with the export income earned by the garment sector. Following the Covid-19 setback, businesses have gained pace; in the last fiscal year, Bangladesh earned export proceeds of US$38.75 billion. Besides, during the previous nine months (July-March) of this fiscal year, Bangladesh exported RMG products worth US$31.42 billion gaining a YoY growth of 33.81%.

While the sector is thriving in business volume, the workers had to take to the streets with demands to receive their salary on time.

To recap some events that shocked many during the two years of the Covid-19 pandemic. Even though a stimulus package of Tk 5000 crore was announced for the RMG sector, from April to May 2020 alone, 18,000 workers were dismissed as per estimates of the Department of Inspection of Factories and Establishments. Moreover, Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) has found that as much as 42% of the RMG workers primarily employed in micro, small, and medium-sized factories, did not receive help from the stimulus package.

If one looks a little further back, during the first wave of Covid in the country, on the morning of April 4, 2020, many were shocked to see a rush toward Dhaka. This rang an alarm as the country was supposed to remain under lockdown to minimize the risks of spreading the virus. Late in the evening of that day, the BGMEA President requested the closure of all the factories during the lockdown period.

But by then, many had travelled to Dhaka, and many were stuck in between. As an institution, BGMEA restated that they could not force any factories to remain closed. Unfortunately, the government did not ask the factories to shut down; instead, it only discussed measures to ensure the workers’ salaries were on time to justify their questionable actions. The workers went through this toil as many did not receive their pending salary before the lockdown started on March 26 and were likely to lose their jobs if they would not report to the factory as and when instructed. The testimonies of the returnee garment workers revealed such concerns.

Bangladesh went into another lockdown phase in 2021, starting from July 23 until August 5. However, upon repeated requests from the industry owners, the authorities suddenly decided on the afternoon of July 30 to reopen export-oriented industries on August 1, including the RMG sector — while the entire country would follow the lockdown till 5 August. Therefore, people rushed to get back to the industrial cities to save jobs, but there was hardly enough public transport. Hence, these workers had to pay five to 10 times higher fares to reach their factories on time.

During the negotiations with the government, factory owners claimed they would start operations with the workers living near factory areas, and workers who travelled to the villages would join later. However, many workers said factory supervisors contacted them over the phone and asked them to join work on August 1. Ignoring health and social distancing directives, hundreds of thousands of workers travelled in crammed goods transports, auto-rickshaws, rickshaw vans, and even walked to their workplaces in Dhaka, Narayanganj, and Gazipur to save their jobs.

RMG workers toil throughout the year towards meeting production targets and eventually contribute to earning foreign currencies, but it is tragic to see them protesting for unpaid salaries. For demanding their rightful wage, workers face police brutality, and many workers lose their jobs having allegations of “creating disruption” in production.

Even if these protests do not turn into outright conflict, these events reflect the power imbalance between workers and owners — that culminated in the Rana Plaza calamity back in 2013.

 

United States portrayal of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

As negotiations between the world powers and the Islamic Republic of Iran continues over the revival of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the last barrier to a deal is, Tehran’s demand for the United States to remove its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the foreign terrorist organization (FTO) list.

Naturally, this demand has triggered a heated debate in Washington between proponents and opponents. Proponents of such a move — including Khamal Kharrazi, former Iranian foreign minister — claim the IRGC does not belong on the FTO list as it is a national army that is no different from Saudi Arabia’s National Guard.

By contrast, opponents argue that removing the IRGC from the FTO list would legitimize an entity that has the characteristics of a terrorist organization and engages in widespread acts of terrorism.

A research prepared by a US Think-tank reveals that the nature of IRGC is not a conventional state armed force and should not be treated as such. The IRGC is an ideological organization that shares key characteristics with other designated Islamist organizations, including its quest for an expansionist Islamic state, a global Islamic order, forceful imposition of sharia law (Shi’a interpretation), militaristic concept of jihad, and anti-American and anti-Semitic ideology.

The finding of a US research paper reveals three visible trends in the IRGC. The first relates to indoctrination becoming an increasing focal point in the Guard. Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his hardline circle have sought to nurture a more radical IRGC generation by dedicating more time to ideological indoctrination of its members. The promotion system within the ranks of the IRGC also favors ideological conviction over technical expertise, ensuring the most zealous members rise up within the chain of command.

The second trend relates to the increasing priority given to Mahdism within the IRGC’s ideology. From the post-2009 period onwards, the doctrine of Mahdism has become one of the main prisms through which the IRGC and affiliated hardline clerics would understand the world around them and the IRGC’s actions, as well as communicate that understanding. In turn, there has been greater emphasis on viewing the IRGC as the military vehicle to prepare the foundations for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, with policy objectives such as hostility toward the US and the eradication of Israel being understood through this prism. This is consistent with the goal of Khamenei and his hardline allies, such as Ayatollah Alamalhouda, the supreme leader’s representative to Khorasan and President Ebrahim Raisi’s father-in-law, to transform the concept of Mahdism from a set of feelings into an “ideological belief.”

The third and final trend relates to the IRGC’s younger generations becoming more radical and extreme. In this regard, efforts by Khamenei and the Guard’s Ideological-Political Organization to nurture a more radical generation among the IRGC has paid, and is paying, dividends.

Against this backdrop, the rise of devout followers of the militaristic doctrine of Mahdism among the senior ranks of the IRGC is not inconceivable and should not be ruled out. While there is hope that the IRGC’s senior leadership will act pragmatically, internal structures within the Guard — including its indoctrination and promotion system — certainly open up the possibility that devoted Mahdists could occupy senior leadership positions.

Such a scenario could have far-reaching consequences as it would bring the three pillars of the IRGC’s foreign policy — militias, ballistic missiles, and the nuclear program — under their control. Even if a small number of devout Mahdists occupy senior positions in the Guard, it is possible that they may seek to facilitate and speed up the return of Mahdi. This would have major implications for some of the policies that are being understood through the prism of Mahdism, such as Israel’s existence being the “greatest barrier” to the reappearance of the 12th Imam.

At present the doctrine of Mahdism in the IRGC remains a complete blind spot for Western policymakers, yet it could have major implications for the Islamic Republic’s militia network, ballistic missile program, and even its nuclear program. Of course, no one knows for sure if devout adherents of the ideology will attain senior command positions in the IRGC. The objective of this paper, however, is simply to point out that it would be unwise not to prepare for this scenario given the huge implications it would have for US and global security.

Russia-Ukraine conflict paves way for free trade agreements among EU members

Russia’s war with Ukraine is giving member countries of the European Union fresh incentives to speed up work on free-trade agreements. At least nine nations including Germany and Spain are planning to send a letter to the EU seeking to speed the delayed talks, according to a Bloomberg report.

The signatories want faster negotiations with New Zealand, Australia, India and Indonesia, while speeding the implementation of accords agreed with Chile, Mexico and the Mercosur bloc of countries, which include Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.  

The letter also says that the process to negotiate, sign and implement trade deals is too long, and points out that the massive Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was signed in late 2020 and will enter into force this year for most members.

In Brussels, a slow-moving trade bureaucracy has often been displaced and made irrelevant by quicker political developments.

For example, in 2016 a transatlantic trade deal negotiated during the Obama administration tanked after Donald Trump’s election reversed the trajectory of US-EU trade liberalization efforts.

Then in late 2020 the EU announced the conclusion of its seven-year investment negotiations with China, only to see it promptly belly flop after Brussels clashed with Beijing over its alleged human-rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Trade agreements take time to complete and sometimes span the length of entire careers, which makes it understandably frustrating to see years of hard work go down the drain.

Now Russia’s invasion is hastening a fundamental rewiring of the global economy that is reinforcing existing trade ties among geopolitical allies and incentivizing new ones. It’ll play out in the months ahead through business decisions about supply chains and government deal-making.

“In a post-invasion world, it has become increasingly untenable to isolate trade from universal values such as respect for international law and human rights,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in a speech last month.

Shifts are occurring from dependence to diversification, from efficiency to security, and from globalization to regionalization, she said.

In Russia, businesses and the government may already be substituting imports from Europe with imports from Asia, according to Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator.

The Russian port of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea has recently seen a significant increase in the number of container ships arriving, whereas the port of St. Petersburg, which is involved in European trade, continues to record declines, Stamer said in a post Thursday.

“This could be a first indication of trade diversion” and “makes it all the more important to create economic incentives for countries such as India to move closer to Europe rather than Russia,” he added.

 

Iranian port Chabahar handles nearly 2 million tons goods in a year

As announced by a provincial official, nearly 2 million tons of basic commodities were transported from Chabahar port, in the southeast of Iran, to the designated destinations throughout the country in the past Iranian calendar year 1400 ended in March 2022.

Mehrollah Damough, the head of goods transportation office of Road Maintenance and Transportation Department of Sistan-Baluchestan province, where the strategic port lies, said that the mentioned commodities were transported by almost 80,000 trucks.

Chabahar is an important port and a low-cost route for Central Asian countries, which with its strategic unloading and loading equipment has the potential to become a key transit corridor for international transit and transportation, the official further underlined.

As announced by the Deputy Head of Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), 30.9 million tons of basic goods worth US$19.6 billion were cleared from the customs in the past Iranian calendar year.

Foroud Asgari, Deputy Head of IRICA for customs affairs, said that the imported goods comprises of 25 commodity groups.

Putting the value of the imported basic commodities at US$19.6 billion in the past year, the official said that the imports showed a 60% increase in terms of value and 32% growth in terms of weight, as compared to the Iranian calendar year 1399.

As Iran's only oceanic port on the Gulf of Oman, Chabahar port holds great significance for the country both politically and economically. The country has taken serious measures for developing this port in order to improve the country’s maritime trade.

In this regard, the Islamic Republic has been welcoming investors from all over the world to take part in the development of this port and benefit from its distinguished position as a trade hub in the region.

Chabahar port consists of Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti terminals, each of which has five berth facilities. The port is located in Iran’s Sistan-Balouchestan Province and is about 120 kilometers southwest of Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, where the China-funded Gwadar port is situated.

In May 2016, India, Iran, and Afghanistan had signed a trilateral agreement for the strategically-located Chabahar to give New Delhi access to Kabul and Central Asia.

Based on an agreement with Iran, India is going to install and operate modern loading and unloading equipment including mobile harbor cranes in Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar.

Miftah the lesser you talk the better it will be for you and the incumbent government

The consensus is growing among the analysts that Miftah Ismail, Finance Minister of Pakistan talks a lot and often inconsistent and incoherent, which could make his life miserable with the passage of time. 

The other suggestion is that he should bid farewell to Imran Khan animosity and focus on putting the economy of the country back on track.

Allow me to refer to his statement regarding Dr. Reza Baqir, the outgoing Governor of State Bank of Pakistan. Ismail had indicated in a tweet that the government would not be providing an extension to Dr. Baqir. It may be called that he was often termed an appointee of the International Monetary Fund and follower of the IMF dictate.

However, on his departure he admitted, "I want to thank Reza for his service to Pakistan. He is an exceptionally qualified man and we worked well during our brief time together. I wish him the very best."

He misses no chance of maligning Imran Khan for agreeing with the IMF on conditions which had opened floodgate of inflation in Pakistan, the most notorious being the hike in the tariffs of electricity and gas and withdrawal of different types of subsidies.

It is a welcome sign that the IMF has extended the timeline of the current program and also promised to increase the amount by US$2 billion. However, the honourable minister hasn’t disclosed the conditions attached to this ‘favour’. The cat will soon come out of the bag when the IMF starts its review soon after Eid Holidays.

Even a person of ordinary wit knows very well that IMF bailout package will be attached with: hike in revenue, hike in electricity and gas tariffs and withdrawal of subsidies. It is also no wonder that Miftah hasn’t developed ‘homegrown’ plan and would be obliged to follow the IMF recipe.

I am not sure if the Minister is fully aware of massive smuggling of food items to the three neighboring countries, enjoying long and most porous borders with Pakistan. Food items are being fled to Afghanistan, Iran and India only because of the faulty Trade Policy being followed by Pakistan.

Ismail faces a daunting challenge of controlling mounting ‘circular debt’, which is nothing but rampant pilferage going on with the connivance of employees of the utility companies. Analysts say, with every hike in tariffs the incentive grows for pilfering electrify and gas.

Minister has to convince IMF that Pakistan suffers from cost pushed inflation and the hike in interest rate renders the exporters uncompetitive in the global markets. Exports just can’t be increased without exploiting Pakistan’s comparative advantage and making exports competitive in the global markets.

Last but not the least, Pakistan has to contain import of luxury and/or unnecessary goods to contain trade deficit. WTO Article 6 provides an option to Pakistan to impose quantitative restrictions on imports; the option must be exercised without further waste of time.