Can sustainable peace be established between India and Pakistan?

It appears that efforts are being made to reduce hostility between Pakistan and India, the two atomic powers of South Asia. However, most of the actions are taking place behind the scene, though scanty details are being shared with public.

The Pakistan Day message received by Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan from his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi has made headlines, but it hardly reflects any tangible goodwill gesture.

After years of hostility cordiality will be difficult to achieve. Yet the first, careful steps have been taken, and if things proceed without any glitch tangible progress in the peace process can be achieved.

The first sign that things were changing for the better came in the shape of the LoC ceasefire announced last month by the two countries. It was followed up by statements from Khan and the army chief calling for better relations with India.

Pakistani experts were also in India earlier this week after a long gap to discuss the sharing of Indus waters. Relations had of course hit rock bottom after India unilaterally annulled held Kashmir’s special status in its constitution in 2019.

One can hear the eco that a Gulf state that enjoys good relations with both sides is playing the role of peacemaker. Biden administration is also sending certain signals to Islamabad and New Delhi. This suggests that the two atomic powers are being pressurized to ease the situation.

It has been witnessed several times in the past; both countries were tantalizingly close to making peace, only for the process to be abandoned due to spoilers, this time things may not be different.

It is believed that with seriousness of purpose, everything standing in the way of peace — including Kashmir — can be resolved. The history spread over more than 70 decades, proves this is only a wishful thinking.

My lines could be best understood when one reads what Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa has said. He said pointblank that lasting peace in the sub-continent will remain elusive until the resolution of the Kashmir issue. He also stressed that it was time for India and Pakistan to "bury the past and move forward".

Let me say that both the countries have remained hostage to the disputes and issues. The Kashmir issue is obviously at the heart of this. It is important to understand that without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, process of rapprochement will remain susceptible to derailment.

Chinese Foreign Minister in Iran for strategic talks

Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi arrived in Tehran on Friday for talks with senior Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said assessing ways to strengthen strategic partnership and sharing views about regional and international issues will feature high in the talks.

The Ministry also said the two-day visit of Wang is a “step toward strengthening comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.”

Prospects of long-term cooperation and the ways to implement comprehensive strategic partnership will be the main topic of talks between Zarif and Wang, the ministry added.

Concurrent with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relationship between Tehran and Beijing, the two chief diplomats will also inaugurate an exhibition on historical documents about cooperation between the two countries on Saturday.

The two foreign ministers also plan to sign a comprehensive cooperation document between Islamic Republic of Iran and People’s Republic of China.

Wang is the highest-ranking Chinese diplomat to pay an official visit to Iran since Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit in 2016, Hua Liming, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran, told the Global Times on Friday. 

Hua also called Iran a key country on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and one of the major oil exporters to China.

The nuclear issue will also be a key topic during the visit, according to Hua.

"The withdrawal of the Trump administration from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a big blow to Iran's economy. In fact, Iran wants the United States to return to the deal, and China can coordinate with it," the former ambassador said.

The visit Chinese Foreign Minister has been scheduled days after top diplomats from China and the United States agreed at high-level talks in Alaska that Iran was one of the issues on which they could work together, despite their many differences, including on human rights in Xinjiang.

Security and stability in West Asia

In an interview with Al Arabiya on Wednesday, Wang proposed five initiatives to achieve security and stability in West Asia, noting that getting rid of geopolitical competition among great powers is the fundamental way to end the chaos. 

As for the Iran nuclear issue, Wang pointed out that the US should take concrete measures to ease unilateral sanctions against Iran and its ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ over third parties, while Iran should resume fulfilling its nuclear commitments.

At the same time, Wang said, the international community should support the efforts of regional countries to establish a West Asia zone free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.

All parties should discuss and formulate a route and timetable for the resumption of implementation of the JCPOA in accordance with the merits of the development of the Iran nuclear issue, Wang said, according to the Global Times. 

China and Russia say US should return to JCPOA unconditionally

In the meeting between Wang and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday, the two senior diplomats said the United States should unconditionally return to the JCPOA as soon as possible and revoke the unilateral sanctions imposed against Iran. 

Only China can act as a ‘peace-broker’ in the Iran nuclear issue, said Li Haidong, a professor of international relations at China Foreign Affairs University, "especially after China has exchanged ideas with the US in Alaska, then with Russia and then with Iran… and no other major international issue can be separated from China's participation and coordination."

Foreign Minister Wang started his tour of West Asia on Wednesday. He first visited Saudi Arabia and then Turkey. After concluding visit to Iran, he will fly to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and make a working visit to Oman.

South China Morning Post said the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and alliances will be high on agenda of Wang’s visit to West Asia.

No one seems serious in floating ship stuck in Suez Canal

Having lived and worked for nearly seventy years in a third world country, I often tend to buy conspiracy theories. I have been following Evergreen story since Tuesday, now I am beginning to arrive at two conclusions: 1) grounding of the ship was not an accident and 2) all the efforts are being made to prolong blockade of Suez Canal. You may laugh at my insanity, but please give me a patient reading.

To begin with, I am still unable to swallow the bitter pill that the ship of this size and weight has grounded because of bad weather and dust storm.  This could have never happened unless the ship was moving without escorting tug boats.

The time already taken shows that there is no urgency, some giant oil companies and tycoons of the shipping industry are adamant at prolonging the blockade. It may also be doubted that some ruthless elements are also bent upon punishing Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and even Japan.

“Time is the deciding factor here. The ship itself is undamaged, but there is massive consequential damage from the blockade,” said Peter Berdowski, chief executive of Boskalis.

As stated earlier, there is deliberate effort not to rescue the ship. The first and most effort should have been to lessen the load of the ship, removing the containers and all the less imported baggage.

Officials involved in the operation say, the most obvious first step will be to remove large fuel and ballast to lighten the vessel, in combination with dredging away sand and to then attempt to pull it afloat.

It is also said that if those initial measures fail and the ship remains stuck, it will need to have its cargo of several thousand shipping containers removed, a job that could take weeks.

Contrary to reducing load on the ship, some dragging is being done which is not only damaging canal wall, but can certainly sink the ship deeper.  

I am amused to read lines like “While lives are not at stake this time, the vast economic interests in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes make the urgency of the situation critical”.

The salvage company says, “It needs to come up with a plan that is acceptable to the ship owner, insurance companies, and the Egyptian, state-owned Suez Canal authority”.

“It is a difficult puzzle, because the ship is currently being strained by unnatural forces. We don’t want it to tip or tear in half during the salvage,” says the salvage company.

To conclude, I refer to Clemens Schapeler with global logistics platform Transporeon said, “I think the most likely outcome is that it will be refloated on Sunday or Monday. But the worst case (stuck for weeks) is a real possibility.”

Anti Modi demonstrations erupt in Bangladesh

Two-day tour of Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi to Bangladesh starts on Friday. Earlier, leaders from Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives have attended the festivities, which started on 17th March.

Modi’s visit is part of 10-day celebrations of the Golden Jubilee of Bangladesh independence. This also marks Birth Centenary of the nation's founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, father of current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

During his visit, Modi is scheduled to visit two temples in southern rural districts, including the birthplace of a top Hindu reformer who has large number of followers in the Indian West Bengal and Bangladesh.

To display their displeasure some factions staged anti-Modi demonstration in Dhaka. The protesters accused Modi of stoking religious tensions and inciting anti-Muslim violence in the Indian state of Gujarat in 2002, which left about 1,000 people dead. Modi was Gujarat's chief minister at the time of the deadly religious riots.

On Thursday, student organizations under the banner of ‘Progressive Student Alliance’ were demonstrating against Modi’s visit.They were allegedly attacked by Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) activists at Dhaka University campus.

 “Some 40 protesters were injured, including 18 hospitalized with injuries from police beatings and rubber bullets,” Bin Yamin Molla, a senior official of the Student Rights Council, which organized the protest, told AFP.

Witnesses said several hundreds of BCL men with local weapons were seen at the Teachers Students Centre (TSC).

Earlier in the day, Jubo Odhikar Parishad activists clashed with police in the city’s Motijheel area while protesting against the Indian prime minister’s visit.

The Parishad, youth front of former vice president of Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) Nurul Haque Nur’s organization, blocked the roads in the Motijheel area in the afternoon.

The clashes started when the law enforcing agencies tried to stop the demonstrators.

Suez Canal may remain closed for days and weeks

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA), which had allowed some vessels to enter the canal in the hope the blockage could be cleared, said it had temporarily suspended all traffic on Thursday.

“We can’t exclude it might take weeks, depending on the situation,” Peter Berdowski, CEO of Dutch company Boskalis which is trying to free the ship, told the Dutch television program “Nieuwsuur”.

A total of 156 large container ships, tankers carrying oil and gas, and bulk vessels hauling grain have backed up at either end of the canal, Egypt’s Leith Agencies said, creating one of the worst shipping jams seen for years.

“It is like an enormous beached whale. It’s an enormous weight on the sand. We might have to work with a combination of reducing the weight by removing containers, oil and water from the ship, tug boats and dredging of sand.”

Shipping experts say that if the blockage is not cleared in the coming days, some shipping may re-route around Africa, which would add roughly a week to the journey.

“Every port in Western Europe is going to feel this,” Leon Willems, a spokesman for Rotterdam Port, Europe’s largest, said. “We hope for both companies and consumers that it will be resolved soon. When these ships do arrive in Europe, there will inevitably be longer waiting times.”

Consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the biggest impact was on container shipping, but there were also a total of 16 laden crude and product oil tankers due to sail through the canal and now delayed.

The tankers were carrying 870,000 tons of crude and 670,000 tons of clean oil products such as gasoline, naphtha and diesel, it said.

According to oil analytics firm Vortexa, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the top two exporters of oil through the canal, while India and China are the main importers.

Joanna Konings, senior economist, International Trade Analysis at Dutch bank ING, said the impact on the world economy would be limited if it did not drag on since the container shipping industry was used to days of delays.

But Germany’s BDI industry association was concerned. Deputy Managing Director Holger Loesch said earlier delays were already impacting production, with industries depending on raw materials or construction supply deliveries particularly affected.

About 16% of Germany’s chemicals imports arrive by ship via the Suez Canal and the chief economist for the association of German chemicals and pharmaceuticals producers VCI, Henrik Meincke, said they would be affected with every day of blockage.

Bernhard Schulte Ship Management (BSM), the technical manager of Ever Given, said dredgers were working to clear sand and mud from around the blocked vessel while tugboats in conjunction with Ever Given’s winches work to shift it.

Japanese ship owner Shoei Kisen apologized for the incident and said work on freeing the ship, which was heading to Europe from China, “has been extremely difficult” and it was not clear when the vessel would float again.

The owner and insurers face claims totaling millions of dollars even if the ship is refloated quickly, industry sources said on Wednesday. Shoei Kisen said the hull insurer of the group is MS&AD Insurance Group while the liability insurer is UK P&I Club.

Is Israel heading towards fifth election?

In Israeli politics, there is no formal draft for future stars, but there are definitely parties that look ahead rather than at the present. That has never been truer than with Tuesday election. Strategists in parties across the political spectrum admit behind the scenes that with all due respect to the current race, they are actually focusing on yet another election.

Initial exit polls on Tuesday night indicated that Netanyahu’s bloc had won 61 seats together with Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party, and thus would be able to form a government, but the final results could end up being different.

It does not matter if the fifth election will take place in October 2021 or in 2025. What does matter to the parties is that the three-decade political career of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will eventually end and that will change everything.

They start with Bennett. While it initially looked like he would remain independent in the race, he instead chose to be careful not to leave the Right, even though it could have helped him win more seats in this election. 

Sources close to Bennett said he had in mind building himself up for the next election in the post-Netanyahu era. For that, he could not be the one who prevents the formation of a right-wing government.

The Center-Left similarly looked to the future. Rather than wasting a potentially stronger candidate in a potentially unwinnable fight against Netanyahu, leading figures in the camp said the time had come to run Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and finish him off with a loss.

Labor leader Merav Michaeli has spoken openly about using this election to build her up and rebuild Labor, in order to be ready for the next one.

The best example was the ultimate potential game-changer for this election, Gadi Eizenkot. He saw what Netanyahu did to his fellow former IDF chief of staff, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, and preferred to sit this race out and wait for post-Netanyahu era.

The Likud’s future leadership candidates, like Nir Barkat for instance, have also purposely been keeping a low profile.

Watching New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar collapse from 21 seats when the campaign began to five or six after challenging Netanyahu’s political powerhouse in this election, proved parties taking this election not too seriously were better off.

A stuck container ship brings maritime traffic to grinding halt in Suez Canal

A stuck container ship brings maritime traffic to grinding halt in Suez Canal A container ship lodged itself in the middle of the Suez Canal on Tuesday, forcing maritime traffic to grinding halt in one of the world’s busiest waterways.

The Panama-flagged container ship en route from China to the Netherlands has been stuck in the Egyptian canal, while traveling north from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.

Several tug boats have crowded around the ship for hours.

The ship blocked the Suez Canal in both directions, apparently causing other ships to wait for the Ever Given to move before continuing their passage.

The Egyptian government’s canal authority, and Taiwan-based ship operator Evergreen Marine, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The Suez Canal is one of the busiest canals in the world, serving as a key link between Europe and Asia for container ships, oil tankers and other vessels. Millions of tons of cargo pass through it every day. The Egyptian government expanded the 150-year-old canal in 2015, in a bid to attract even more traffic and send more fees from shipping companies into government coffers.