Biden faces stiff challenges

Doubts are clouding the horizon on every topic for US President Joe Biden as he nears the anniversary of his election. On Capitol Hill, the push for the two bills at the heart of his legislative agenda is in peril. 

The economy appears broadly on a path to recovery, but optimism was shaken by another poor jobs report on last Friday. Inflation lurks in the background, too. Along with this the dangers of the winter months are looming.

A little progress was made on the nation’s debt ceiling and avoiding the financial earthquake that would have resulted had the US neared default in mid-October. The temporary fix agreed between Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell means the fight will be waged all over again in early December.

A Quinnipiac University poll released last Wednesday indicates Biden’s  fall to easily the lowest mark of his presidency, with 53% of registered voters disapproving of his job performance and only 40% approving.

An Economist-YouGov survey conducted in first week of October was not quite as bad, but it still made for discomforting reading for Democrats. 48% of respondents disapproved of Biden’s actions, and 42% approved. 

There are even worries that Democrats could suffer an embarrassing loss in Virginia’s gubernatorial race early next month. 

Democrats see the turbulent waters surrounding Biden and they look with trepidation toward next year’s midterm elections. The party that holds the White House almost always loses ground in the first midterms of a president’s tenure. Democrats are defending a tiny majority in the House and a 50-50 split in the Senate, where they hold the majority only through Vice President Harris’s deciding vote.

Republican strategist Dan Judy asserted that “the bloom is off the Joe Biden rose” after about nine months in power.

Biden got bad news on the economy on Friday, when new data from the Labor Department showed just 194,000 jobs had been added in September — the lowest monthly figure since December.

The divisions between progressives and their more conservative colleagues in the Democratic Party are on stark display. Biden faces a delicate task in trying to reconcile the ambitions of progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders and much of the rest of the party, with two skeptical Senate holdouts, Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

The rhetoric across the Democratic trenches has become angrier in recent weeks; even as most in the party admit failure to reach a deal would be a political disaster.

“It is important for the president to be able to rally his side,” said Murray. “But I also think it is important to demonstrate that government is capable of working, of delivering results. 

“I think there is a broad cynicism that exists in the American public that government doesn’t do anything,” he added. “To the extent that the Biden administration can show we are delivering results, I think that is very important.”

Any number of these events could break in Biden’s favor, reversing the slide he has endured since the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, but right now, he faces stiff challenges.

Biden administration shows little progress with Abraham Accords on first anniversary

According to certain reports Biden administration has made little progress in advancing normalization agreements between Israel and Arab and Muslim-majority countries more than one year since they were first established under the Trump administration.

Supporters of the agreements, ‘The Abraham Accords’ say President Joe Biden is missing a key opportunity on an issue that enjoys rare bipartisan support in a polarized and hyper-partisan Congress.

They add that the President can reap tangible successes in the Middle East, including on improving conditions for Palestinians, while taking ownership of a Trump foreign policy success.

The stalled progress is likely to give ammo to Republicans ahead of the 2022 and 2024 elections, who seek to skewer the Biden administration over its policy of rapprochement with Iran and reestablishing ties with the Palestinians that were severed under Trump.

Biden administration has also come under fire for appearing to fail to defend Kurdish Iraqis who were condemned, and reportedly physically threatened, for calling to normalize ties with Israel.

“It is beyond unexplainable that the Biden administration is distancing America from this noble effort of the Iraqi people to normalize relations with Israel. We should pray for their efforts, not shun them,” former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted in response to a statement by the US-led coalition to defeat ISIS that denied knowledge of the calls for normalization.

Pompeo, one of the architects of the accords and a potential 2024 Republican presidential candidate, will be in Jerusalem next week to celebrate their one-year anniversary with Israeli officials. 

Also in attendance will be Trump's son-in-law and former special adviser Jared Kushner, who was integral in shaping the deal, along with former US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, who will be inaugurating the “Friedman Center for Peace through Strength” to coincide with the celebrations.

The Abraham Accords were first announced in August 2020 as a breakthrough in normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, marking the first Arab country to establish relations with Israel in more than two decades, since Jordan in 1994.

Bahrain was the second country to sign on to the deals followed by pronouncements from Sudan and Morocco to deepen ties with Israel.

“I have to say that it exceeded my expectations,” Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute who served as an adviser on Palestinian negotiations between 1999 and 2001, said of the success of the accords.   

“Relations are going strong, embassies are being formally established, economic relations are just only growing … certainly we’re seeing a momentum," he added.

While the trigger for the UAE recognizing Israel was an effort to preserve Palestinian national aspirations — securing a commitment by Israel to halt plans for annexation green-lighted by the Trump administration — al-Omari said that the deepening ties with Abu Dhabi and the subsequent agreements with Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco show how far the Palestinian issue has fallen from the agenda of Arab and Muslim countries.

“In the end it’s invalidated the old paradigm that Israeli peace with the Arabs has to go first with the Palestinian track. These are all transformations,” he said.

Yet including issues related to the Palestinians with prospective Abraham Accord partners could present an opportunity for the Biden administration to secure a key signatory like Saudi Arabia, and move forward its commitments to improving the situation for Palestinians in general, said Michael Koplow, Policy Director of the Israel Policy Forum, a research and policy advocacy organization.

Saudi Arabia, which the Trump administration touted as being close to signing on to the accords, has resisted so far, insisting that normalization with Israel is contingent on Palestinian statehood.

“If countries that normalize with Israel keep this in mind,” Koplow continued. “To say to Israelis, ‘listen there are things [with the Palestinians] that make it harder for us to normalize, and if you stop some of these things, then more agreements can be had’ — that’s a model that we’ve seen work once already and I think it's likely to keep on going.”

The Israel Relations Normalization Act of 2021, sponsored by Rep. Brad Schneider in the House and Sen. Rob Portman in the Senate, calls for the State Department to assess how the Abraham Accords “advance prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.”

“The Biden administration has been tepid — to be charitable — on moving forward,” Koplow said. “One challenge is that the model that the Trump administration developed is simply not wise for the United States.”

The Trump administration came under intense scrutiny by both Republicans and Democrats over the basis of the agreements reached with the UAE, Sudan and Morocco.

This included selling F-35 advanced fighter jets and other military sales to Abu Dhabi, removing Sudan from the State Sponsor of Terrorism List, and recognizing Morocco’s claim to the contested territory of Western Sahara.

While the Biden team has allowed the F-35 sale to proceed, it has done little to address the status of Western Sahara for Morocco, or Sudan’s role in the Abraham Accords, which has yet to officially sign the agreement.

While Biden has put forth the possibility of a Washington visit for Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok — raised during a call with national security adviser Jake Sullivan — a high level Sudanese diplomat said they are waiting for the official invitation.

Bonnie Glick, who served as Deputy Administrator of the US Agency for International Development during the Trump administration, called finalizing Sudan’s participation as a “low-hanging-fruit opportunity to have an impact on a Muslim country that needs our help.”

“Sudan probably took the biggest risk of any country that’s signed on to the accords. This is a brand-new government that came to power by toppling an Islamist autocracy,” she said.

“You have a military government that’s trying to transition to a civilian government, and they took a calculated risk and said, ‘We’re going to sign the Abraham Accords.’ And since the Biden administration came in, there has been silence on the Sudan component in particular.”

Biden officials say they are engaged in efforts to expand the accords by adding in new countries. Secretary of State Antony Blinken last month hosted a Zoom call with his counterparts in Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco celebrating the one-year anniversary of the accords.

“This administration will continue to build on the successful efforts of the last administration to keep normalization marching forward,” Blinken said.

But al-Omari, of the Washington Institute, criticized this event as “muted.”

“It is a fact that the Biden administration has not been, very robustly, involved in building on these accords,” he said.

Despite the absence of the Biden administration, ties are deepening between Israel and Gulf states, largely an outgrowth of more than a decade of secret ties over concerns of Iran’s ambitions in the region and, following normalization, excitement over increased economic opportunities and security initiatives.

Israel is touting as a landmark achievement its pavilion in Dubai at the World Expo; direct flights and exchanges of hundreds of thousands of its citizens with the UAE; and raising the possibility that Oman could be the next country to join the accords.

“We have, I believe, created a change of dynamics and a change of attitude in the Middle East and in the region,” Eliav Benjamin, Head of the Bureau of the Middle East and Peace Process Division at the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a briefing with reporters Wednesday.

This paradigm shift between Israel and its neighbors, Benjamin continued, is about “being much more pragmatic and practical on dealing with issues that we have at hand.”

Rising gas and crude oil prices not a good omen

Meteorologists are predicting a cold winter, and it could send international energy prices even higher. Record high natural gas prices have forced some utilities to switch to oil, boosting demand for crude. It is feared that oil prices may witness further rise, though not likely to stay there for long.

The spike in oil prices to the highest in years came after OPEC plus decided not to add more barrels than the initially agreed 400,000 bpd monthly. Analysts say that prices could witness further increase. Now, some forecast price may rise to US$100/barrel. The good news is that even if it happens, it won’t last. 

Goldman Sachs recently updated its oil price forecast for the final quarter, saying it now expect Brent crude to reach US$90/barrel by end December 2021. The bank believes oil demand could jump by 900,000 bpd if the winter gets harsher.

“While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts,” the bank’s commodity analysts said in late September this year.

Then Bank of America said oil could hit US$100/barrel because of the energy crunch that has now gone global. US Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm said last week that the government may release oil from the country’s emergency reserve to lower gasoline prices.

The record-high natural gas prices have forced some utilities to switch to oil derivatives instead, boosting demand for crude and, like Goldman, noted the prospect of a cold winter as another bullish factor for oil.

“If all these factors come together, oil prices could spike and lead to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world,” BofA analysts wrote in a note. “Put differently, we may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane.”

Yet even if Brent hits US$100/barrel, it is unlikely to stay there for long, according to John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services. And it would take a lot of things to happen for the benchmark to reach this price level.

“I see that as kind of a lower probability scenario. That is, if everything goes wrong, if we have Arctic weather, if we’ve got glitches, breakdowns in the deliverability, the supply chains. That is a possible scenario but I don’t see that likely to be sustainable,” Driscoll told CNBC last week.

Yet the weather is impossible to predict with any accuracy over longer periods of time, and indeed, current forecasts for the winter season differ dramatically among meteorologists, as Bloomberg reported earlier this month. 

The rational thing to do, of course, is to plan for the worst possible scenario, which would be a very cold winter. Indeed, this was what Europe and China tried to do and what became one big reason for the gas price spike. 

Yet some of that spike, at least, was the result of speculation rather than fundamentals. Gas prices dropped after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country will supply additional gas to Europe.

Kamala comes under heavy criticism after address at George Mason University

There are moments, often quite fleeting, when the masks put on by politicians briefly fall away, revealing the true person who lies beneath the carefully cultivated layers of spin and sophistry. Kamala Harris had just such a moment last week. And it wasn’t pretty.

Speaking at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, to mark National Voter Registration Day, the vice president of the United States took a question from a student that was as fallacious as it was foolish.

 The student, who identified herself as Iranian and Yemeni, said that “just a few days ago there were funds allocated to continue backing Israel, which hurts my heart because it’s an ethnic genocide and a displacement of people, the same that happened in America, and I’m sure you’re aware of this.”

Rather than denouncing or contradicting this appalling accusation of “ethnic genocide” against America’s best friend in the Middle East, Harris chose instead to nod respectfully and then failed to counter the antisemitic libel.

Worse yet, Harris proceeded to praise the student, saying she was “glad” she had raised the subject, before adding, “this is about the fact that your voice, your perspective, your experience, your truth, should not be suppressed and it must be heard, right?”

This is what Barack Obama must have meant by the term “a teachable moment,” for we just learned a heck of a lot about Kamala Harris.

To begin with, her failure to rebut the assault on Israel’s legitimacy speaks volumes in and of itself. In carefully crafted press releases and speeches put together by her staff, Harris will, of course, mumble mantras of support for the Jewish state. But when left bare and unscripted, her instinct is not to refute the slandering of Israel but, rather, to affirm it as a form of “truth.”

It’s no wonder that the Iranian government-owned Press TV was quick to tweet out a video of Harris’s performance.

No less appalling was her suggestion that there are many truths, which is a form of moral relativism that serves only to muddy the waters and confer an air of legitimacy on outright falsehoods.

Back in January 2017, when Kellyanne Conway, an adviser to President Donald Trump, used the term “alternative facts” in a Meet the Press interview when describing the size of the crowd at the presidential inauguration, she was widely ridiculed.

Yet that is precisely what Harris did, effectively saying that to view Israel as a murderous, genocidal entity is as valid as any other opinion.

Moreover, in telling the student that her position should “not be suppressed,” she seemed to suggest that the Palestinian side of the story goes unheard.

Sherman lauds Pakistan for helping Afghan refugees over last 42 years

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Friday expressed appreciation for Pakistan's efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, saying that it should be "very proud of 42 years of helping Afghan refugees" and the US, as well as the world, was grateful for that. 

Sherman lauded Pakistan's role during an exclusive interview on PTV News program 'Shahrah-e-Dastoor'.

In response to a question, Sherman said she had visited a United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Documentation Renewal and Information Verification Exercise centre earlier in the day, where registration cards were being issued to Afghan refugees so that they could have access to facilities such as healthcare in Pakistan.

"It is an extraordinary system," she said, commending Pakistan for persistently helping Afghan refugees over a long period of time.

Sherman was also asked about her comments about relations between the US and Pakistan during her visit to India.

"It’s for a very specific and narrow purpose, we don’t see ourselves building a broad relationship with Pakistan," she had said, according to Indian publication The Indian Express.

In response to the question, Sherman clarified that by "specific steps" she meant that the purpose of her trip to Pakistan was to predominantly focus on the aftermath of events in Afghanistan and review bilateral relationships between the US and Pakistan.

"The US and Pakistan have had longstanding relations for decades," she said.

She went on to say, "This is a time of great change in the region because of the events in Afghanistan", and the US and the world was reassessing what the future would look like and how to ensure a better future for Afghans and ensure that no country remained a safe haven for terrorists.

Sherman also assured that the US was willing to engage with Pakistan on the wide-ranging agenda we have and the aftermath of recent events in Afghanistan.

She added that the US was glad that Pakistan had called for an inclusive government in Afghanistan and progress on this front should be made so as to "create a better life for the people of Afghanistan".

"And we also agree that humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan should continue," Sherman said, sharing details of measures taken by the US for this purpose.

When asked about the Quad, a recently formed group that includes India, United States, Japan and Australia as members and perceived to be an alliance against China in the region, Sherman described it as a cooperative effort on matters such as energy and people-to-people exchange.

In this connection, she also clarified that the US didn't ask countries to choose between itself and China.

Acknowledging that China was a large economy and growing world power, she added, "What we do ask is that China plays by rules" in the international order.

"We urge countries to insist on that so that everyone has a level-playing field".

When she was asked about America's stance on the Kashmir dispute, Sherman said she realized that it was a long-standing, complex and historical issue, but "it is between India and Pakistan".

The US would urge for dialogue on the matter, she added.

Sherman also lauded initiatives taken by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government to mitigate climate change.

Sherman appreciates Pakistan's efforts to evacuate foreign citizens from Afghanistan

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Friday appreciated Pakistan's efforts to evacuate foreign citizens from Afghanistan as well as its efforts for regional peace. The US official also praised the progress in talks between the US and Pakistan on climate change and alternate sources of energy.

The meeting between US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman  and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi was also attended by US Assistant Secretary of South and Central Asian Affairs David Lu and Pakistani Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood.

In a tweet later in the day, Sherman said she discussed Afghanistan's future and the important and long-standing US-Pakistan relationship with Qureshi during the meeting.

"We look forward to continuing to address pressing regional and global challenges," she added.

Qureshi said that Pakistan wants broad-ranging, long-term and stable relations with the United States to promote economic cooperation and establish peace in the region.

He made the comments during a meeting with Wendy Sherman, currently on a two-day visit to Pakistan. The two sides discussed bilateral relations, Afghanistan and the regional situation during the meeting.

Qureshi stressed that a proper dialogue between the two countries was "necessary" for mutual benefit of the US and Pakistan as well as the promotion of regional objectives, the FO statement said.

The foreign minister said Pakistan and US had similar perspectives and stressed the importance of a peaceful solution to the situation in Afghanistan.

He further said Pakistan hoped the interim Taliban government in Afghanistan would work for the betterment of all Afghan citizens alongside peace and stability.

"A representative and inclusive Afghan government can be a trustworthy partner for the international community. In the current situation, there is a need for proper steps by the international community to ensure positive inclusion, provision of humanitarian aid and financial resources to set up a stable economy to solve the problems of the Afghan public," the statement quoted Qureshi as saying.

The foreign minister also stressed on a solution to the Kashmir dispute for lasting peace and stability in the South Asian region while apprising the US delegation of the human rights violations in Indian-occupied Kashmir.

He also thanked the US deputy secretary of state for the country's donation of Covid-19 vaccines to Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Sherman offered condolences on the lives lost in the earthquake in Baluchistan’s Harnai district a day earlier.

On Thursday, National Security Adviser (NSA) Moeed Yusuf, in a meeting with the US Deputy Secretary State, stressed that the international community "must maintain contact" with the interim Taliban government in Afghanistan.

According to a report by Radio Pakistan, during the meeting both sides expressed the desire to promote bilateral relations between the two countries.

They also discussed economic cooperation as well as the security situation in the region, it added.

In his remarks, Yusuf said that blatant human rights violations in Indian-occupied Kashmir also posed a threat to regional peace.

Sherman and her seven-member team arrived in Islamabad on Thursday for a two-day visit to the country.

She had earlier visited India and attended a series of bilateral meetings, civil society events, and the India Ideas Summit.

"The visit is taking place at a very critical time, both in the context of Afghanistan and developments in the wider region," said a senior diplomatic source when asked to explain why Islamabad sees this as an important visit.

Iran Taliban alliance may delay recognition of new Afghan government

The Taliban victory and the American exit from Afghanistan have shuffled the pack in the region in multiple ways. Several of Afghanistan’s neighbours with major stakes in the country have reacted to these developments with ambivalence. 

Pakistan, the Taliban’s major external source of support and its primary advocate in the international community, has exulted over the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan because it serves its strategic objectives vis-à-vis its nemesis India.

At the same time, the Pakistani military and civilian establishments have met these developments with a degree of trepidation. They’re worried that the Taliban’s return to power could reenergize the extremist Islamist elements in Pakistan that are committed to changing the country’s political system to a ‘pristine’ Islamic one. The military is especially concerned that the Taliban would extend support to the Pakistani Taliban who have fought major battles against the Pakistani army in the past and could once again pose a major challenge to the country’s security.

Similarly, the Chinese and the Russians are happy to see the Americans humiliated because it undermines Washington’s status, thus strengthening their standing internationally. However, both Beijing and Moscow are concerned about the impact of the Taliban’s victory on their own restive Muslim populations in Xinjiang and the Caucuses. Insurgent groups consisting of Uyghurs and Chechens are active in Afghanistan and have received support from the Taliban and other Islamist formations. Rebel groups from Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states allied to Russia have also found succour in Afghanistan in areas controlled by the Taliban.

Iran falls in the same category as China and Russia but with a major difference. While China and Russia perceive the US as a competitor, Iran sees America as an unquestionably hostile power—‘the Great Satan’—committed to not only destroying the regime but also driving the nation into destitution and incapacitating the state to such a degree that it can’t assume its rightful place in the comity of nations. It also perceives the US to be the proxy for Israel, Iran’s primary regional adversary, which is bent on destroying any semblance of Iranian nuclear capability by launching clandestine attacks on Iranian nuclear installations and assassinating its nuclear scientists.

This is why Iran has been far more enthusiastic than either China or Russia in welcoming the Taliban victory. It’s not because Tehran loves Taliban but because they drove US forces out of Iran’s neighbourhood. The Iranian regime believes that the abrupt and disorderly US withdrawal is bound to affect America’s credibility among its allies, principally Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are Iran’s major adversaries in the Gulf, thus weakening their resolve to compete with it in the region.

Iran also perceives the American withdrawal as a sign of President Joe Biden’s weakness, from which it could benefit during the continuing negotiations aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) abandoned by Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump in 2018. The new Iranian government under President Ebrahim Raisi has already made clear that, while it’s willing to return to the limits imposed on its nuclear program by the JCPOA, it will do so only if its three principal demands are met. The US must immediately lift all sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, must give an ironclad undertaking that it won’t unilaterally withdraw from the agreement in the future, and must not seek to tie any other issues, such as Iran’s missile program or its regional policies, to the revival of the JCPOA. Iran is in no hurry to return to the agreement. It is in fact using the threat of an imminent nuclear breakout to pressure the Biden administration to accept its preconditions for a return to the JCPOA.

Positive Iran–Taliban relations could also contribute to weakening the American bargaining position on the JCPOA. While Tehran may be underplaying its religio-ideological antipathy towards the Taliban, it hasn’t forgotten the atrocities committed on the Shia Hazara population under the first Taliban regime. It also hasn’t forgotten the Taliban’s massacre of 10 Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif in 1998, an event that brought Iran and Afghanistan to the brink of war. However, the two parties’ shared objective of forcing the US out of Afghanistan has trumped Iran’s ideological hostility towards and religious detestation of the Taliban.

Iran’s pragmatic approach to the Taliban is also driven by its interest in securing its eastern borders against drug traffickers, refugees and, above all, hostile groups such as Baluchi irredentists. Tehran sees the Taliban regime as indispensable in providing such security. Iran is also keen on selling fuel to Afghanistan and has in fact ramped up supplies since the Taliban capture of Kabul. Finally, Iran considers its presence in Afghanistan to be essential for countering what it sees as the malign influence of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on the Taliban regime.

The Iranian policy of live and let live when it comes to the Taliban is a part of its larger regional policy of consolidating and expanding its influence to ensure its security and keep hostile powers at bay. It has been doing so across its western borders, where Iranian-financed and -trained militias have become significant political and military players in Iraq. Hezbollah, Iran’s oldest ally in the Arab world, plays an even larger political role in Lebanon and has become an indispensable partner in any governing coalition in the country.

Taliban may not be as pliant a partner as the Iraqi Shia militias, but maintaining good relations will provide Iran with much greater security on its eastern borders and constrain other powers such as China, Russia and Pakistan from harming Iranian interests in Afghanistan, a country strategically located at the junction of the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia.

McMaster proposes to remove Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally

According to media reports, testifying before a powerful Congressional Committee on Afghanistan, former General H. R. McMaster, said that the United States needs to hold the Pakistan Prime Minister accountable for some of his comments after the fall of Kabul in August.

It is also delusional, he said, to think that any of the money that would go to the Taliban or through the Taliban for humanitarian purposes would not immediately be used by the Taliban to solidify their power and to become an even greater threat. “So, we're in a situation where we're facing a really extraordinary dilemma that it's going to be tough for us to mitigate the humanitarian crisis without empowering the Taliban,” he said in response to a question.

“I don't think we should give any assistance to Pakistan at all. I think Pakistan has had it both ways for way too long. I think Pakistan should be confronted with its behavior over the years that have actually resulted, I think, in large measure in this outcome,” McMaster said.

It was during the Trump Administration that the US had blocked all security assistance to Pakistan. The Biden Administration has not resumed the security aide yet.

“I think we ought to hold Imran Khan responsible for his comments when Kabul fell and he said that the Afghan people have been unshackled. Why should we send a dime to Pakistan under any conditions? I think that they should be confronted with international isolation because of their support for jihadist terrorists, who are threats to humanity, including the Haqqani network, the Taliban, and groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba,” he said.

Responding to a question from Congressman Scott Perry, during the Congressional hearing convened by the House Foreign Affairs Committee, McMaster said that it is a good idea to remove Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally.

“I would say the only time I think we have ever laid out a very clear and realistic assessment of South Asia and prioritized the strategy was President Trump's speech in August of 2017. Now, he abandoned it and he doubled down on the flaws of the Obama administration. I don't know how that happened. But I think if you go back to that August 2017 speech, that was the proper approach to Pakistan as well, which called for a suspension of all assistance to Pakistan until Pakistan fundamentally changed its behaviour,” McMaster said.

Congressman Bill Keating said Pakistan remains a problem and the US needs to assess it.

“Its long-standing activities, by many accounts, have been negative. I think that's putting it mildly. For decades, though, for decades, whether you go back to'96 when the Taliban took control, Pakistan was one of the first to recognize them,” he said.

“When you go through the change in 2001 in Afghanistan and then the reconstruction of the Taliban starting around 2005, they were there giving assistance, by all accounts, and I believe those accounts are accurate. And indeed, right up into this current change in the government, Pakistan, there were many people that suggested their intelligence was embedded with them,” Keating said.

Pakistan’s relationship with the Haqqani network is one that is of great concern.

“That may indeed affect our relations with India in that respect. But can you comment on that? I think they have been duplicitous, not just recently, not just in the few months of this administration, but for decades in this with many administrations, Republican and Democratic alike,” he said.

Former US Ambassador to Pakistan Ryan Croker acknowledged that Pakistan worked against the US in some very fundamental aspects with their support for the Taliban.

“Earlier, I tried to present their narrative as to why. We were going to walk out, and they did not want to be left with the Taliban as a mortal enemy. They may get that anyway. And as satisfying as it would be to a lot of us, myself included, to do something to punish Pakistan for this, I don't think we have the luxury. They are already worried over the repercussions inside their own country of the Taliban's so-called victory in Afghanistan,” he said.

“Now, we can say, ‘Yeah. Well, they deserve whatever they get.’ But again, a blow-up in Kashmir is going to bring a regional war. So, I think reassessment is always good, but let's reassess with a clear eye on the dangers now that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has created throughout the region. We do not need a completely destabilized Pakistani state with nuclear weapons,” Croker said.

McMaster told the lawmakers that the Taliban was backed by ISI and that’s why they recaptured Afghanistan.

“The Taliban's differential advantage was the backing by the ISI of other groups. But it was the unscrupulous units who are willing to terrorize. They didn't give up their differential advantage. And so, I don't think it's a mystery at all why they collapsed. And I think it should be unacceptable, to disparage the Afghans who did fight, and over 60,000 of them made the ultimate sacrifice to preserve the freedoms we're now seeing,” he said.

The Taliban, he said, went around to the Afghan units, and they said, "Hey, here's how this is going to go."

With the backing of the Pakistani ISI, intertwined with the Haqqani network and Al-Qaida, what they did is they told those commanders, "Hey, listen. You accommodate with us. We give you the signal, or we kill your family. How does that sound?" he said.

And that's why the Afghan forces collapsed in addition to the withdrawal of US intelligence support, the withdrawal of our airpower, which was the Afghan forces differential advantage, McMaster said.

Has Wendy Sherman got a recipe to mend deteriorating US-Pakistan relations?

US Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman is scheduled to reach Islamabad on Thursday for talks aimed at bridging the widening breach between the United States and Pakistan on the Afghan issue, according to a note issued by the office of the department’s spokesperson.

 “The visit is taking place at a very critical time both, in the context of Afghanistan and developments in the wider region,” said a senior diplomatic source.

The source pointed out that the Biden administration did “not seem to be reluctant to travel to both India and Pakistan in a go, which was the case in the past.”

“This is an important visit, and we look forward to engaging with Ms. Sherman,” said Pakistan’s Ambassador, Asad Majeed Khan while talking to Dawn. “Together, we would explore ways to strengthen and expand our bilateral cooperation in areas of mutual interest and concern.”

According to the sources, Biden administration is focusing on four major points in its talks with Pakistan linked to Afghanistan these are: 1) recognition of Taliban government, 2) imposition of sanctions in case Taliban don’t behave as per the US expectations 3) access to Afghanistan and 4) counter-terrorism cooperation with Pakistan.

The sources say that the United States does not want Pakistan to recognize Taliban regime before the rest of the international community. Instead, it wants Pakistan to continue its efforts for softening Taliban position on controversial issues, such as inclusive governance, human rights, girls’ education and allowing women to work.

The Americans believe that a change of position on these issues could have a positive impact on Taliban image and pave the way for their acceptance in the United Nations. Individual nations, like Pakistan, should delay their recognition till then.

To begin with, analysts are of the opinion that Pakistan is a sovereign country and its foreign policy should not be dictated by the United States.

They also say that Pakistan has emerged at total loser after joining ‘war against terror’. Though, Americans were never tired of terming Pakistan ‘frontline allay’, India emerged as their major partner in economic development in Afghanistan. This created anti-Pakistan sentiment among Afghans living in the areas under the control of ‘Northern Alliance’.

While ‘do more mantra’ was common, many Pakistanis just can’t condone the US troops for their attacks on Pakistani check posts, worst being Salala tragedy

‘Arm twisting has been common’ in negotiations with the IMF, Americans mostly followed ‘carrot and stick’ policy.

Pakistanis have not forgotten delays the delivery of F-16.

Wendy Sherman’s likely agenda in India

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy R. Sherman is set to have a packed agenda during her visit to India, which will pave the way for the India-US Trade Policy Forum (TPF) and the maiden 2+2 ministerial dialogue under the Joe Biden administration.

Sherman is visiting India from 6 to 7 October and will be reaching New Delhi from Tashkent. She will be meeting government officials, representatives from civil societies and will also visit Mumbai on October 07 to meet the business community.

Sherman is expected to set the tone for the upcoming 2+2 talks between the Foreign and Defence ministers of both countries, which is likely to take place in November.

The India-US TPF was established in 2005 with the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in India as nodal agencies.

Under the previous US administration, headed by President Donald Trump, the TPF met only once in October 2017 when the then US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met India’s former Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu.

However, after this meeting, President Trump called off the talks and began negotiations for a limited trade deal between India and the US as an answer to a plethora of trade issues between both the countries.

These issues range from lowering of tariffs for American goods, especially agricultural produce, to increase in tariffs on IT products by India.

However, despite a series of negotiations between both the sides, the plan to have a small trade deal, followed by a larger one, could not be clinched.

According to the sources, the Biden administration is not yet keen to have a trade deal with India since it plans to smoothen out “trade irritants” first, under the TPF.

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US last week, India made sure to put trade back on the table as the government eyes large trade deals in its second term, unlike the first one.

“Between India and the United States, trade will continue to assume importance, and we find that the trade between our two countries is actually complementary,” Modi said in Washington last week, addressing a joint press conference with US President Joe Biden.

The issue of enhancing two-way trade also came up during the meetings Foreign Secretary Harsh V. Shringla had with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Sherman.

The 2+2 dialogue between the US and India will take place in Washington this time, for which External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will visit the US.

This is going to be the first 2+2 level talks between both sides under the Biden administration.

According to sources, during this meet, both sides will discuss the roadmap for Afghanistan that is now being ruled by the Taliban.

They added that the discussions will range from extending humanitarian aid to the Afghan people, support for Afghan women and children and also on the remainder of the evacuation exercise in the country.

Discussions will also be held on the role both countries will be playing in Afghanistan, in terms of whether or not to grant international legitimacy to the Taliban while making them adhere to the UN Resolution 2593 (2021), which was passed under India’s UNSC presidency in August.

The resolution demanded that the territory of Afghanistan not be used for terrorist activities or as a safe haven particularly for groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).

Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister mesmerized by US mantra

Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed skepticism about China's qualification to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) at his first press conference on Monday, noting the bloc's tough free trade requirements.

As regards China's application to join the CPTPP, he said, "we need to look at whether China can meet the high standards required by the trade pact." "It's still unclear if it can," he added.

Kishida noted that China was using force to shift the status quo in the region. "It is important to say what we need to say to China in coordination with allies and partners with whom we share fundamental values," he said.

US President Joe Biden on Monday congratulated Kishida on his election. "The US-Japan Alliance is the cornerstone of peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and the world, and I look forward to working closely with Prime Minister Kishida to strengthen our cooperation in the months and years ahead," he said.

Kishida will speak with Biden over the phone as early as Tuesday, in what is expected to be his first conversation with a global leader since taking office. They will affirm the importance of the Japan-US alliance and exchange ideas on ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific. The leaders are also expected to discuss national security concerns in light of recent developments, including China.

On foreign policy, Kishida laid out three principles: 1) protecting universal values such as freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law; 2) strengthening Japan's defense; and 3) taking the lead in tackling global issues such as climate change and the free flow of data.

On strengthening Japan's security, the Prime Minister specifically mentioned missile defense. "To defend our territory, seas, airspace, as well as the lives and assets of our people, I am determined to strengthen the defense of Japan, including missile defense, and bolster maritime security capabilities," he said.

The reference to missile deterrence is seen as a nod to the upcoming two-plus-two security negotiations with the US Secretaries of State and Defense, during which the US is expected to propose basing intermediate-range missiles in Japan to deter Chinese actions in the Taiwan Strait.

"I will engage in foreign policy and national security challenges with resolve, drawing on the Japan-US alliance and the world's trust in Japan," Kishida said.

Kishida also said he is prepared to meet North Korean leader without preconditions. He called the resolution of the abduction issue ‑ the North's kidnapping of Japanese in the 1970s and '80s ‑ a top priority of the government.

On economic policy, Kishida promised that his cabinet will work together to distribute wealth widely among the people.

"I aim to create a new form of capitalism, and present a new socioeconomic vision to pave the way for Japan's future," he said.

The leader said he will set up a new team to lay out a post-pandemic social and economic vision for Japan. "We will create a positive cycle of growth and distribution to create an economy where people can prosper," he pledged.

Kishida said the government should consider tax reform, in particular changing the current rules that grant lower effective tax rates to those earning 100 million yen (US$900,000) or more.

He also listed a slew of other policies to foster economic growth, including promoting technological advancements, narrowing income gaps between urban and nonurban areas through digitization, protecting Japan's economic security and creating social welfare and tax systems that are fair to all work styles.

Kishida said he will dissolve the lower house on October 14 for an election on October 31, seeking a fresh popular mandate as he takes the country's reins.

"I want the Japanese people to decide before anything else whether they believe in me, and, if possible, to tap that confidence to advance a politics of trust and compassion," he said.

"I set the timeline in hopes of tackling daring coronavirus and economic measures with the public's support," Kishida said. Slowing case numbers in Japan contributed to his decision.

Regarding the Group of 20 Summit and the United Nations COP26 Climate Change Summit, which are scheduled around the time of the election, Kishida said he will be able to take part in discussions through remote and other technologies. "I hope to make Japan's presence felt," he said.

Need to find out reasons for downing of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp

Users have begun reporting Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp returned to function after going offline for users across the globe on Monday and remaining down for nearly six hours. Some users are still experiencing difficulties writing or uploading new posts or stories, but their feed has reloaded.

Downdetector that tracks outages by collating status reports from a series of sources, said that they saw almost 14 million total reports for Facebook, Whatsapp, Instagram and Facebook Messenger said, "We are starting to see reports begin to decline now that Facebook is back up."

Facebook apologized but did not immediately explain what caused the failure. The firm owns Instagram and WhatsApp.

As the world flocked to competing apps such as Twitter and TikTok, shares of Facebook fell 4.9%, their biggest daily drop since last November, amid a broader selloff in technology stocks on Monday. Shares rose about half a percent in after-hours trade following resumption of service.

"To every small and large business, family, and individual who depends on us, I'm sorry," Facebook Chief Technology Officer Mike Schroepfer tweeted, adding that it "may take some time to get to 100%."

Several Facebook employees who declined to be named said that they believed that the outage was caused by an internal mistake in how internet traffic is routed to its systems. The failures of internal communication tools and other resources that depend on that same network in order to work compounded the error, the employees said.

Security experts said an inadvertent mistake or sabotage by an insider were both plausible.

"Facebook basically locked its keys in its car," tweeted Jonathan Zittrain, Director of Harvard's Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society.

As the company was struggling to resume connection, Schroepfer said in a tweet, "We are experiencing networking issues and teams are working as fast as possible to debug and restore." He also apologized sincerely to everyone "impacted by outages."

During the crisis, Facebook workers also reported issues with using their company phones and equipment, and some have even been locked out of the building when their digital cards failed to function, the New York Times reported on Monday.

Other platforms such as Amazon and Telegram have been experiencing difficulties ever since the Facebook shutdown as well, possibly as many users turned to these alternative platforms instead of Facebook, and overloaded their systems.

The severe outage comes immediately after a whistleblower accused Facebook of repeatedly prioritizing profit over clamping down on hate speech and misinformation on Sunday. 

"Strange that hours after a whistleblower calls out Facebook saying they engaged in a 'betrayal of democracy' that Facebook and other companies it owns are totally down." Donald Trump Jr. tweeted on Monday. "I'm sure it's a coincidence."

#Facebookdown and Whatsapp have become trending on Twitter as the world experienced several hours with only one large active social media platform out of the top four used in Israel, Whatsapp, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

Twitter became the hottest arena for the hours when Facebook was off the grid, and started a thread reading, "hello literally everyone." Many industrial giants responded to the tweet, including McDonalds, Microsoft Teams, Alexa, and the culprits themselves, Whatsapp, Instagram and Real Mark Zuckerberg, who tweeted, "Am also here literally. Lol," and assured the fanbase that he was working on the app issues.

Security experts tracking the situation said the outage could have been triggered by a configuration error, which could be the result of an internal mistake, though sabotage by an insider would be theoretically possible.

An outside hack was viewed as less likely. A massive denial-of-service attack that could overwhelm one of the world's most popular sites, on the other hand, would require either coordination among powerful criminal groups or a very innovative technique.

Facebook acknowledged users were having trouble accessing its apps but did not provide any specifics about the nature of the problem or how many were affected by the outage.

"We're working to get things back to normal as quickly as possible, and we apologize for any inconvenience," Facebook said.

Facebook has experienced similar widespread outages with its suite of apps this year in March and July.

Several users using their Facebook credentials to log in to third-party apps such as Pokemon Go and Match Masters also faced issues.

"If your game isn't running as usual please note that there's been an issue with Facebook login servers and the moment this gets fixed all will be back to normal," puzzle game app Match Masters said on its Twitter account.

Commencement of commercial flights between Egypt and Israel

An Egyptair aircraft landed at Ben-Gurion Airport on Sunday in the airline’s first-ever commercial flight to Israel. The Egyptian national carrier will now run four weekly round-trip commercial flights between Tel Aviv and Cairo. 

Sunday’s flight was greeted with the traditional water sprays shot in the air in celebration of the historic event.

Since Israel and Egypt signed a peace deal in 1979, flights between the two countries have been offered by a subsidiary of Egyptair, called Air Sinai, created exclusively for that purpose. Those flights ran with varying frequencies between the two countries, depending on diplomatic conditions, and never showed the company’s logo on the plane.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had met with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi in Sharm el-Sheikh three weeks ago in the first visit of an Israeli prime minister to Egypt in a decade. Sisi felt comfortable at the time announcing the meeting publicly, whereas in the past, only Israel would publicize such high-level diplomatic events.

The flight followed another “historic first” flight last week, a direct commercial flight to Israel from Bahrain, kicking off Gulf Air’s new biweekly route between Ben-Gurion and Manama, Bahrain’s capital city.

Flights between Israel and Dubai began last November, and a direct route to Abu Dhabi launched in April. In July, El Al and Israir both launched their first flights to Marrakesh, Morocco, following the normalization of ties in December.

Israel has had peace with Egypt since 1979, but while Cairo has remained an important strategic partner throughout, the relationship has had hot and cold periods.

Last month the Taba border crossing between Israel and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula returned to full activity after Israel’s National Security Council lowered the travel alert level of beaches there. Travel to Sinai, a popular tourist destination for Israelis, was severely restricted during the past year due to the corona pandemic.