China soliciting support for Russia

As the West condemns Russia, President Vladimir Putin has vocal supporters in China, where the ruling Communist Party tells its people they are fellow targets of US-led harassment. “If Russia is destroyed, we will be next. 

This is for sure,” said Wang Yongchun, a retiree in Beijing. “The United States wants to dominate the world.”

Such comments reflect the stance of a ruling party that is the closest thing Putin has to a major ally. The war should stop but the United States is to blame.

President Xi Jinping’s government has tried to distance itself from Russia’s offensive but avoided criticizing Moscow. The government has offered to act as mediator and denounced trade and financial sanctions against Russia.

Ruling party control of all Chinese media and intensive internet censorship make it hard to gauge public opinion. But what the party allows online and requires media to publish make clear what it wants the public to think.

Media outlets were told last week to post only pro-Russian content and to censor anti-Russian or pro-Western views, according to a copy of instructions posted on the social media account of the newspaper Beijing News. The post was later deleted.

Online and in social media, expressions of sympathy for Ukraine and support for Russia appear but not criticism of Moscow.

“When a war begins, is it not the children of ordinary people who serve as cannon fodder”, said a post signed Da Ke Ming Yi on the Weibo social media platform. “Those who died were the children of ordinary people.”

A letter signed by five professors from prominent universities that criticized Russia for attacking a weaker neighbor appeared briefly on social media before being deleted.

“We stand against unjust wars,” said the academics from schools including Tsinghua University in Beijing, alma mater of many ruling party leaders.

Comments posted by nationalists criticized the professors for failing to stick to the ruling party’s official position of neutrality.

The ruling party has spent decades using school textbooks and the entirely state-controlled media to nurture a sense of nationalist grievance. It accuses the United States of trying to block China’s rise to its rightful position of global leadership.

State media repeat Beijing’s position that the United States and its European allies are to blame for the Ukraine war because they failed to respond to Russian concerns that its democratic neighbor should be barred from joining NATO, the Western military alliance.

That echoes Chinese complaints that Washington and its allies are interfering in its domestic affairs and issues of national sovereignty, including its claim over Taiwan, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and in Xinjiang, the far-western region where China has been accused of detaining over a million Uyghurs.

Russia’s attack, as a historical event, “is not a good one,” but “people think the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is because the United States stirred up trouble,” said Zheng Bowen, a 38-year old engineer.

The state-run newspaper Capital News exhorted the public to line up with the ruling party: “The nation’s attitude is our attitude.”

“China has always upheld a fair and responsible attitude, calling on all parties to exercise restraint and ease the situation, and return to dialogue and negotiation,” it said.

However, the newspaper appeared to support Putin’s demand that Ukraine become a neutral buffer between Russia and Europe and give up the possibility of NATO membership.

“Ultimately, Ukraine should be a bridge between East and West, rather than a frontier of confrontation between major powers,” the Capital News said.

Comments online have called for China to support Russia by purchasing its exports of oil, gas and other goods.

“Let the Russian Embassy sell their goods on livestream. Let’s show them China’s buying power,” said a comment signed Bao Zou Guang Xiao Pang on Weibo. It received 42,000 likes.

A separate comment advocating that China maintain normal trade with Russia, an implicit rejection of sanctions, received nearly 80,000 likes.

Social media platforms have urged users to act responsibly and say they have removed thousands of postings about the attack on Ukraine.

Douyin, a short-video service operated by the Chinese owner of TikTok, said it deleted more than 3,500 videos and 12,100 comments due to “vulgar, war belittling, sensationalist and unfriendly comments.”

The popular WeChat message service also complained about “vulgar posts” that it said have a “negative impact on cyberspace.”

It said some users “took the opportunity to publish bad information about international current affairs,” including comments belittling the war such as crass jokes about “gaining course credits by going to Ukraine and fighting in the war” and asking “Ukrainian beauties to come to China,” the platform said.

WeChat’s post was later shared by a unit of China’s internet watchdog, the Cyberspace Administration of China.

Weibo said it removed more than 4,000 posts that were vulgar and ridiculed war. It said more than 10,000 accounts were closed.

“Peaceful environments do not come easily,” the company said in a social media post. It called on users to “maintain an objective and rational attitude” and take part in discussion “in a reasonable manner.”

China will invade Taiwan taking cue from Putin, warns Trump

Donald Trump former President of United States has warned that the Chinese regime will invade Taiwan after seeing Russian troops move into Ukraine.

Such an invasion against self-governing Taiwan will occur because Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are an example of twin sisters, Trump said during an interview on The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. “China is going to be next,” Trump said.

“They’re waiting ’til after the Olympics. Now the Olympics ended, and look at your stopwatch, right? No, he wants that just like … It’s almost like twin sisters right here,” he added.

“Because you have one that wants Taiwan, I think, equally badly,” Trump added. “Somebody said, ‘Who wants it more?’ I think probably equally badly.”

He suggested that neither Putin nor Xi would make a move if he were the president.

“Putin would have never done it, and Xi would have never done it,” the former president said.

Putin and Xi met in China earlier this month. After their meeting, they released a lengthy statement, claiming that the two bordering nations enjoy strong ties in which there would be no limits in their partnership and no forbidden areas of cooperation.

Xi—who is likely to be handed an unprecedented third term in office at an important Chinese Communist Party meeting later this year—vowed in October last year that reunification of Taiwan with China would “definitely be realized.”

On February 23 this year, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen ordered the island’s national security agencies and military forces to ramp up their efforts to monitor and provide early warning of military developments in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas, following a high-level national security meeting on developments in Ukraine.

China and Taiwan are separated by the Taiwan Strait, which is about 80 miles wide at its narrowest point.

The Chinese regime sees Taiwan as part of its territory that must be united with the mainland, by force if necessary. However, Taiwan is a de facto independent country, where Taiwanese people elect their own government officials through democratic elections.

Republican Michael McCaul also hinted a connection between Ukraine and Taiwan, while speaking to ABC earlier this month.

“Xi is watching what is happening in Ukraine, our adversaries are watching,” McCaul said. “If Putin can go into Ukraine with no resistance, certainly, Xi will take Taiwan. He’s always wanted this.”

In light of its ambitions toward Taiwan and the broader Asia–Pacific region, Beijing has been engaged in an aggressive program of military modernization. Part of this includes expanding its nuclear arsenal, with a 2021 Pentagon report estimating that the regime might have 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and as many as 1,000 by 2030.

The report pointed out different military actions the Chinese regime might deploy against Taiwan, including air and maritime blockades, precision airstrikes, and a full-scale amphibious invasion.

In recent years, Taiwan has been bearing the brunt of persistent Chinese military harassment, with military jets flying into the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on a regular basis. According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, the latest incursion happened on February 23, when two J-16 military jets entered the island’s southwestern ADIZ, prompting the island to deploy its military aircraft and air defense missile systems in response.

A recent survey conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found that most Taiwanese do not believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would lead to Beijing attacking the self-governing island. The survey polled 1,079 people for two days ending on February 15.

The survey found that 62.9% said it was either unlikely or impossible that China would attack Taiwan. Meanwhile, 26.6% said it was either very likely or fairly possible that China would attack the island after Russia invades Ukraine.

On February 24, Putin declared a special military operation in Ukraine. Soon afterward, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky announced martial law and said Russia had conducted strikes on Ukraine’s military infrastructure and border guards.

Russian aggression drew immediate criticism from Republican Ashley Hinson. Writing on Twitter, she stated: “I strongly condemn Putin’s unprovoked military attack on Ukraine. Americans stand with the Ukrainian people who deserve freedom and peace.”

“The world is watching us. We must ensure that our allies, like Taiwan, know they can rely on the US,” Hinson added.

United States-China ties as fraught as ever

At the height of the Cold War, US President Richard Nixon flew into communist China’s center of power for a visit that transformed US-China relations and China’s position in the world in ways that was unimaginable at the time.

The relationship between China and the United States was always a challenge, and after half a century of ups and downs, is more fraught than ever. The Cold War is long over, but on both sides there are fears a new one could be beginning. Despite repeated Chinese disavowals, the US worries that the democratic-led world that triumphed over the Soviet Union could be challenged by the authoritarian model of a powerful and still-rising China.

 “The U.-China relationship has always been contentious but one of necessity,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro, a China expert at Stanford University. “Perhaps 50 years ago the reasons were mainly economic. Now they are mainly in the security realm. But the relationship has never — and will never — be easy.”

Nixon landed in Beijing on a gray winter morning 50 years ago. Billboards carried slogans such as “Down with American Imperialism,” part of the upheaval under the Cultural Revolution that banished intellectuals and others to the countryside and subjected many to public humiliation and brutal and even deadly attacks in the name of class struggle.

Nixon’s 1972 trip, which included meetings with Chairman Mao Zedong and a visit to the Great Wall, led to the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979 and the parallel severing of formal ties with Taiwan, which the US had recognized as the government of China after the communists took power in Beijing in 1949.

Premier Zhou Enlai’s translator wrote in a memoir that, to the best of his recollection, Nixon said, “This hand stretches out across the Pacific Ocean in friendship” as he shook hands with Zhou at the airport.

For both sides, it was a friendship born of circumstances, rather than natural allegiances.

China and the Soviet Union, formerly communist allies, had split and even clashed along their border in 1969, and Mao saw the United States as a potential counterbalance to any threat of a Soviet invasion.

Nixon, embroiled in the Watergate scandal at home, was seeking to isolate the Soviet Union and exit a prolonged and bloody Vietnam War that had divided the US society. He hoped that China, an ally of communist North Vietnam in its battle with the US-backed South, could play a role in resolving the conflict.

The US president put himself in the position of supplicant to Beijing, said June Teufel Dreyer, a Chinese politics specialist at the University of Miami. Chinese state media promoted the idea that a prosperous China would be a peaceful China and that the country was a huge market for the US exports, she said.

It would be decades before that happened. First, the US became a huge market for China, propelling the latter’s meteoric rise from an impoverished nation to the world’s second largest economy.

Nixon’s visit was a pivotal event that ushered in China’s turn outward and subsequent rise globally, said the University of Chicago’s Dali Yang, the author of numerous books on Chinese politics and economics.

 

US confronts a pair of ruthless dictatorships

I am inclined to share with my readers an article by Newt Gingrich, warning that the United States is confronting a pair of ruthless dictatorships in two potential collisions that could change history and leave the super power at enormous risk.

The news media focus is currently on Vladimir Putin and his threat to occupy part or all of Ukraine. Everyone recognizes that President Joe Biden made a dangerous mistake in his two-hour press conference when he said “a minor incursion” by Russia into Ukraine might be acceptable. His administration was trying to reverse that comment as soon as the press conference ended and spent the next two days trying to reassure everyone—including our allies—that Biden did not mean what he clearly said.

Of course, the Biden threat that there would be “severe sanctions” if Russia invaded Ukraine probably has no effect on Putin. First, when he seized all of Crimea the Obama-Biden administration threatened severe sanctions and nothing seemed to hurt Russia much. Second, at a time when Biden’s war on American energy has raised the price of oil and forced him to beg Russia and Saudi Arabia increase production to lower the price, Putin must be reveling in the absurdity of Biden’s words versus Biden’s actions.

Oil is the biggest source of foreign income for Russia. Every US$/barrel increase is a windfall Putin can spend on the Russian military and foreign adventures. In October 2020, with President Donald Trump’s energy independence policy, the price of crude was US$39.90/barrel. Today, with Biden’s anti-American energy policy, the price of crude has jumped to US$85.43/barrel.

Despite Biden’s strong words about sanctions, the effect of his policies has been a US$45.53/barrel increase in profit (114.11%) for Putin to pay off his oligarchs, buy better military equipment, and engage in foreign adventures. Any supposed sanctions Biden imposed would have to overcome this windfall—and then go much deeper—for Putin to even feel it.

Far from being intimidated, the Russians have announced that they will be holding military maneuvers off Ireland. That country has complained and said they don’t want Russian warships in their neighborhood. Since Ireland is not a member of NATO, and its own forces are totally inadequate for dealing with Russia, NATO would have to get involved if there was a serious incident.

While Putin is keeping everyone focused on Ukraine, Xi Jinping is busy putting pressure on Taiwan. Last Sunday, the Chinese Communists flew 39 aircraft—including a nuclear bomber—near Taiwan.

The simple fact is Putin and Xi sense real weakness in the American commander in chief. They sense that American confusion and weakness is an enormous opportunity.

While Biden has a difficult time communicating with his allies—and has had no impact on Germany which is now choosing Russian natural gas over NATO—Putin and Xi are talking regularly and coordinating activities.

The American system was built for a strong commander in chief. Gen. George Washington spent eight years fighting the British to establish independence of United States. When he became President of the Constitutional Convention, his influence was decisive. Washington knew from his own experience that American survival in a dangerous world required a commander in chief—not a legislator in chief, not a speechmaker in chief, not a cheerful conciliator in chief. The American presidency only works with a strong, competent, commander in chief. Currently United States does not have one. Biden is incapable of filling Washington’s shoes.

He has referred to a movie, “Munich: The Edge of War.” It is a clever treatment of the Munich meeting between Adolf Hitler and British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in which Chamberlain gave away Czechoslovakia in order to buy what he called “peace for the time.”

Before Munich, in a radio broadcast to the British people, Chamberlain had described the German-Czechoslovakian crisis as “a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.”

On learning that Chamberlain had sold out the free country of Czechoslovakia—leaving it defenseless against the German dictatorship—Winston Churchill warned: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.”

He draws the conclusion, “Weakness when facing dictators is always dangerous. The situations in Ukraine and Taiwan are both dangerous. The US commander in chief appears incapable of meeting the dual challenge”.

 

US and EU support for Taiwan deepens ideological fault line

The global ideological fault line running between mainland China and Taiwan deepened in recent weeks owing to support for the self-governing island in Washington and Europe. 

US President Joe Biden’s plan for a Summit for Democracy, announced shortly before he took office, looked certain to become a thorn in Beijing’s side. 

The announcement was one of the first signals that he would keep hard-line policies against Beijing introduced by the administration of his predecessor Donald Trump.

Soon after, Washington suffered setbacks at home and abroad that allowed Beijing to treat the summit more as farce than threat.

Just two weeks before Biden took office, Trump’s supporters ransacked the US Capitol building, incited by a fiery speech from the then-president which was full of unsubstantiated claims about election fraud that few in his Republican Party have disavowed.

The fall of Kabul to the Taliban in Afghanistan in August as well as humanitarian crises in countries including Lebanon, Ethiopia and Sudan further underscored Washington’s uphill battle against what the US Secretary of State has called the world’s “democratic recession”.

However, news that Taipei would be at the virtual summit table crossed a red line that raised the stakes for Biden’s event. The move enraged Beijing after a long-awaited summit between Biden and his counterpart Xi Jinping that appeared to have at least stabilized a bilateral relationship strained by a trade war, export restrictions and defence posturing in the South and East China Sea.

The online gathering of more than 100 heads of state, which pointedly excluded China and Russia, was billed as an allied effort to counter the rise of authoritarians and convened at a time when Beijing was dispatching record numbers of military jets to Taiwan’s airspace and a build-up of Russian troops on the country’s border with Ukraine.

While criticizing Biden’s summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi promised to work with Iran, another country not invited to the forum, “to oppose any unilateralism and bullying acts, and uphold the principle of non-interference in internal affairs”.

Washington isn’t the only Western country expressing such explicit support for Taipei. Lithuania’s decision to host the first de facto Taiwanese embassy in Europe to bear the name “Taiwan” has also deepened the ideological rift between Beijing and the West.

Investigating reports of an embargo on Lithuania’s exports to and imports from China, apparently as a result of the representative office’s name, the European Union confirmed that it was looking into the accusations and warned that Lithuania’s relationship with China “has an impact on overall EU-China relations”.

Digging in, Beijing rejected a request by the EU to discuss the alleged trade block on Lithuanian firms, claiming it is too preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic.

Days later, Vilnius pulled its Beijing embassy staff from the country and, almost simultaneously, Xi pledged to support efforts by Lithuania’s historical rival Russia to protect its long-term security amid rising international pressure over Moscow’s attitude to Ukraine.

Xi made the pledge in a video call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, where the Chinese leader also said China and Russia opposed attempts to divide the two nations and called for more joint actions to safeguard their security interests.

As if to underscore the growing divide between the democratic world that Biden is trying to solidify into a more determined and closely aligned bloc and nations on Beijing’s side, Xi said “China and Russia are both major nations with global influence”.

Lithuania seeks EU help against China

Lithuania’s dispute with China escalated after local media reported that goods from some of its companies were barred from entering Chinese ports. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis described the move as ‘unannounced sanctions’ and said Lithuania will seek assistance from the European Commission to solve the issue. 

It is “unprecedented when one EU member state is being partially sanctioned,” he said.

Local media reported that some of the Baltic nation’s forestry and furniture goods are being held up at ports after Lithuania was deleted from China’s electronic customs declarations system early this month. Lithuania hasn’t received any official comment on the matter from China.

The European Commission said it’s in contact with Lithuania and the EU’s delegation in Beijing to verify the information.

“We’ve been informed that Lithuanian shipments are not being cleared through Chinese customs and import applications are being rejected,” said Nabila Massrali, a Commission spokesperson.

Less than 1% of Lithuania’s exports go to China and the decision should have “no fundamental impact” on its economy, Finance Minister Gintare Skaiste said.

Tensions between China and Lithuania have been escalating since Taiwan opened a representative office in the Baltic nation’s capital last month, something Beijing deems disrespectful to Chinese sovereignty.

China recalled its ambassador and downgraded ties with Lithuania to the level of charge d’affaires. Lithuania says it respects the “one-China” principle.

China has officially downgraded its diplomatic ties with Lithuania after the Baltic state allowed Taiwan to open a de facto embassy in Vilnius.

China’s foreign ministry said in a statement that Lithuania had ignored China’s “solemn stance” and the basic norms of international relations in allowing Taiwan to set up its representative office.

China views self-ruled and democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory with no right to the trappings of a state and had earlier expelled the Lithuanian ambassador in protest against the growing ties between Vilnius and Taipei.

The move “undermined China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and grossly interfered in China’s internal affairs”, creating a “bad precedent internationally”, the ministry statement said, adding relations would be downgraded to the level of charge d’affaires, a rung below ambassador.

“We urge the Lithuanian side to correct its mistakes immediately and not to underestimate the Chinese people’s firm determination and staunch resolve to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

No matter what Taiwan does, it cannot change the fact that it is part of China, the ministry added.

Lithuania’s foreign ministry said it “regrets” China’s decision.

“Lithuania reaffirms its adherence to the ‘One China’ policy, but at the same time has the right to expand cooperation with Taiwan,” the ministry said in a statement.

The Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania opened on Thursday.

Other Taiwan offices in Europe and the United States use the name of the city Taipei, avoiding a reference to the island itself, something that has further angered Beijing.

Taiwan says it is an independent country called the Republic of China, its official name, and that the People’s Republic of China has never ruled it and has no right to speak for it.

Taiwan has been heartened by growing international support for it, especially from the US and some of its allies, in the face of China’s military and diplomatic pressure.

Washington has offered Vilnius support to withstand Chinese pressure, and Lithuania will sign a US$600 million export credit agreement with the US Export-Import Bank this week.

 

Overcrowding of warships in South China Sea

Senior Chinese diplomats have called on the United States not to show off its power over the South China Sea and warned of the risk of a misfire in the disputed waters with increasing presence of naval vessels.

Speaking to a South China Sea forum in Sanya, on the Southern Chinese island province of Hainan, via video link, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi blamed an unspecified country for seeking to show off its power and maritime dominance.

“We must adhere to multilateralism and jointly maintain maritime order. The ocean is not a zero-sum game of competition, and no one should use the ocean as a tool to impose unilateral power,” Wang said.

“We oppose that certain countries, for the purpose of safeguarding maritime hegemony, flaunt their forces and form cliques at sea, and continue to infringe on the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of other countries.”

China and the US have been stepping up their military presence in the disputed waters, with increasing risks of an accidental clash. Concerns have escalated as the US has teamed up with its allies, including Britain and France, to send naval vessels to the South China Sea. Diplomatic observers have warned the consequences would be more serious if there was a clash between nuclear submarines.

Last month, the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group and the British carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth conducted a series of exercises in the South China Sea. It was the USS Carl Vinson’s ninth visit to the area this year.

The South China Sea is heavily contested between China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. The US is not a claimant, but accuses Beijing of stoking military tensions and restricting freedom of navigation there, and has said its presence is needed to provide security backup to its Asian allies.

“China calls on the United States to actively consider joining the convention and take concrete actions to participate in the defence of the international maritime rule of law,” he said.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, former president of the Philippines, said the tensions and troubles in the South China Sea were posing “grave threats” to stability, and Southeast Asian nations were seriously concerned.

“Imagine what an exchange of fire between warships of the People’s Liberation Army and the US Seventh Fleet would do to stock, currency and commodity markets worldwide,” she asked the forum.

“The world hopes that such an unwelcome event remains pure imagination. But there are reasons to worry. For the first time in years, if not ever, aircraft carrier groups of China and America deployed in the South China Sea at the same time; so did French and British warships. Earlier this year, the presence of hundreds of Chinese vessels near Whitsun Reef led to Philippine diplomatic protests and the exchange of unfriendly words between Manila and Beijing.”

Arroyo said the South China Sea disputes had previously been managed by the expansion of economic and diplomatic ties among the nations involved, and with a balance of power.

“Now, the balance of power approach is increasingly being taken with the growing presence of American and allied forces in the South China Sea, which will get even more formidable with the Aukus, to which the PLA may feel the need to respond,” she said, referring to the deal struck with the US and Britain to help Australia acquire a nuclear submarine fleet.

A Pentagon report last week said China’s navy had expanded to 355 ships and submarines by 2020. It said the Chinese navy had placed a high priority on modernizing its submarine forces, operating six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), and 46 diesel-powered attack submarines (SSs).

But Wu Jianghao, assistant Chinese foreign minister, said China had engaged in discussions with other South China Sea claimants on joint exploration of its resources and a code of conduct.

“We must oppose maritime hegemony, division and confrontation, and build the ocean into a territory where all parties expand cooperation, rather than a zero-sum arena,” he told the forum.

 

United States-China rivalry intensifies after withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan

The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan last month finally put an end to the 20-year mission sparked by the terrorist attacks on US soil on 11th September 2001. But the move has also set the stage for Washington to turn its attention and refocus its energies and resources on continuing and even intensifying its strategic rivalry with China.

President Joe Biden alluded to it as much when he acknowledged that the withdrawal will give the US the opportunity to focus on countering Russia and China, particularly in meeting the “stiff competition” from “an increasingly assertive China”.

Afghanistan has already emerged as the latest arena for the rivalry, with China pledging to donate US$31 million dollars worth of aid, including food and coronavirus vaccines, to the war-torn country. 

Apart from the possibility of sending a peacekeeping force to Afghanistan if the security situation worsens, Beijing also made clear that it was ready to maintain communication with the Taliban.

China used what it calls the US “abandonment” of Afghanistan to remind America’s allies in Asia, especially Taiwan, not to rely on the US for protection, arguing that the island is merely used as a card to contain China.

Not to be outdone, the US has promised to continue humanitarian aid to the Afghan people through United Nations agencies and non-governmental organizations, including providing a further US$64 million in new humanitarian assistance.

US Vice President, Kamala Harris headed to Singapore and Vietnam to offer reassurance that Washington remains committed to the region, and she outlined the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which in recent months has become a buzzword for countering China.

The Americans also sailed the USS Kidd guided-missile destroyer and Coast Guard cutter Munro through the Taiwan Strait last month, and over the weekend deployed the littoral combat ship USS Tulsa and Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group, said to be a tit-for-tat move after four Chinese warships were spotted sailing in the waters off Alaska late last month.

In a brazen flexing of its military muscle, the US joined forces with its three allies in the Quad security grouping - India, Australia and Japan - in holding joint naval exercises off the coast of Guam, featuring anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine warfare drills.

The US is even considering the possibility of allowing Taipei’s US office to change its name from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office to the Taiwan Representative Office, prompting Beijing to issue a terse warning to Washington not to challenge the one-China principle.

The relations between the world’s two highly disagreeable powers are so tense that cooperation in other areas, most notably in climate change, has taken a beating, with Beijing mincing no words when it declared that China would follow its own plan rather than bow to US pressure.

As both nations face pressure to improve ties, Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in their first phone call in six months to manage the growing rivalry and to stop it from devolving into a conflict. While Biden focused on the way forward for the troubled bilateral relationship, Xi said “getting the relationship right is not optional, but something we must do and must do well”.

These are the most reassuring words that the world has heard in a while, but under the “new normal” in US-China relations, few concessions are likely, relations will remain hard-nosed, while hostile and prickly impulses will continue to undermine mutual interactions.

China Communist Party Marks Centenary

China will not allow itself to be bullied and anyone who tries will face “broken heads and bloodshed in front of the iron Great Wall of the 1.4 billion Chinese people,” President Xi Jinping said at a mass gathering Thursday to mark the centenary of the ruling Communist Party.

Wearing a grey buttoned-up suit of the type worn by Mao Zedong, Xi spoke from the balcony of Tiananmen Gate, emphasizing the party’s role in bringing China to global prominence and saying it would never be divided from the people.

Xi, who is head of the party and leader of the world’s largest armed forces also, said China had restored order in Hong Kong following anti-government protests in the semi-autonomous city in 2019 and reiterated Beijing’s determination to bring self-governing Taiwan under its control.

He received the biggest applause when he described the party as the force that had restored China’s dignity and turned it into the world’s second largest economy since taking power amid civil war in 1949.

“The Chinese people are a people with a strong sense of pride and self-confidence,” Xi said. “We have never bullied, oppressed or enslaved the people of another nation, not in the past, during the present or in the future.”

“At the same time, the Chinese people will absolutely not allow any foreign force to bully, oppress or enslave us and anyone who attempts to do so will face broken heads and bloodshed in front of the iron Great Wall of the 1.4 billion Chinese people,” Xi said.

Xi’s comments come as China is enmeshed in a deepening rivalry with the United States for global power status and has clashed with India along their disputed border. China also claims unpopulated islands held by Japan and almost the entire South China Sea, and it threatens to invade Taiwan, with which the US has boosted relations and military sales.

Beijing faces criticism that it is guilty of abusing its power at home, including detaining more than 1 million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities for political reeducation in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, and for imprisoning or intimidating into silence those it sees as potential opponents from Tibet to Hong Kong.

Thursday’s events are the climax of weeks of ceremonies and displays praising the role of the Communist Party in bringing vast improvements in quality of life at home and restoring China’s economic, political and military influence abroad. Those improvements coupled with harshly repressing opponents have helped the party hold power despite its 92 million members accounting for just over 6% of China’s population.

While the progress dates mainly from economic reforms enacted by Deng Xiaoping four decades ago, the celebrations spotlight the role of Xi, who has established himself as China’s most powerful leader since Mao. Xi mentioned the contributions of past leaders in his address, but his claims to have attained breakthroughs in poverty alleviation and economic progress while raising China’s global profile and standing up to the West were front and center.

Xi, 68, has eliminated limits on his time in office and is expected to begin a third five-year term as party leader next year. In seeking to capture more gains for the party on the world stage, Xi is setting up China for a protracted struggle with the US, said Robert Sutter of George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs.

 “In foreign affairs it involves growth of wealth and power, with China unencumbered as it pursues its very self-centered policy goals at the expense of others and of the prevailing world order,” Sutter said.

While the party faces no serious challenges to its rule, the legitimacy of its rule has been undercut by past disasters such as the mass famine of the Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s and early 1960s, the Cultural Revolution’s violent class warfare and xenophobia, and the 1989 bloodshed at Tiananmen Square.

The party’s official narrative glosses over past mistakes or current controversies, emphasizing development, stability and efficiency — including its success in controlling COVID-19 at home — in contrast to what it portrays as political bickering, bungling of pandemic control measures and social strife in multiparty democracies.

Xi’s comments Thursday on bullying, oppression and enslavement will elicit historical memories among Chinese of the 19th century Opium Wars that led to foreign nations gaining special legal and economic privileges in China, as well as Japan’s brutal invasion and occupation of much of the country during the 1930s and 1940s.

Xi said those experiences had made the party’s rise to power inevitable as the only force truly able to rid China of foreign meddling and restore its global stature.

Xi said the party would retain absolute control over its military wing, the People’s Liberation Army, which now has the world’s second-largest annual budget after the US armed forces and has been adding aircraft carriers and sophisticated new aircraft, showcased in a flyover at the start of the ceremony featuring a squadron of China’s J-20 stealth fighters.

“We will turn the people’s military into a world-class military, with even stronger capabilities and even more reliable means to safeguard the nation’s sovereignty, security and development interests,” Xi said.

Thursday’s rally recalled the mass events at which Mao would greet hundreds of thousands of Red Guards in Tiananmen Square during the chaotic 1966-76 Cultural Revolution, a time many older Chinese would prefer to forget.

Yang Jiechi warns United States to stop meddling in Chinese internal affairs

Yang Jiechi, Director, Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party has called Beijing and Washington to put relations back on a predictable and constructive path, saying the United States should stop meddling in China's internal affairs, Hong Kong and Tibet.

Yang Jiechi is the highest ranking Chinese leader to speak on Sino-US relations since President Joe Biden took office.

Under the Trump administration, the US relations with China plunged to their lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1979, as both sides clashed over issues ranging from trade and technology to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang, and the South China Sea.

While reassuring the United States that China has no intention to challenge or replace the US position in the world, Yang stressed that no force can hold back China's development.

"The United States should stop interfering in Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and other issues regarding China's territorial integrity and sovereignty," Yang said, defining these as issues concerning China's core interests and national dignity.

Speaking at an online forum organized by the National Committee on US-China Relations in Beijing, Yang said China never meddles with US internal affairs, including its elections.

Yang, whose position in the ruling Communist Party gives him more influence than even the Foreign Minister, also urged the Biden administration not to abuse the concept of national security in trade.

"We in China hope that the United States will rise above the outdated mentality of zero-sum, major-power rivalry and work with China to keep the relationship on the right track," he said.

Yang reasserted that China is prepared to work with the United States to move the relationship forward along a track of "no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation."

The word "cooperation" appeared 24 times in his speech. He suggested that US firms could gain from an estimated US$22 trillion worth of exports to China in the coming decade.

Will US pull troops out of Afghanistan?

A question is often asked by the citizens of countries directly or indirectly affected by the Proxy War in Afghanistan; will United States pull out its troops occupying the country after 2014? 

The overwhelming perception is, it will not. To understand this it is necessary to explore reasons why the country is being occupied under the disguise of Nato and ISEAF.

One point is very clear that the objective was not to liberate Afghanistan from the control of USSR or Taliban but to occupy it for economical and political reasons. Presence of Al-Qaeda was not an excuse for attack. Iraq was also not attacked because of Al-Qaeda but oil. Neither Afghanistan nor Iraq had attack the world trade center.

One could find two possible reasons for occupying Afghanistan; valuable metals and geopolitics. Studies conducted by USSR showed that trillions of dollars worth precious and rare metals are present in Afghanistan.

Being the super power United States maintains its military dominance by brining countries all around the world under its hegemony to combat enemies. Afghanistan has an important place in the US foreign policy due to common borders with Pakistan, Iran, China and many oil and gas rich Central Asian countries.

After the Islamic Revolution Iran is being projected the biggest threat for the world, especially Arab monarchies and more recently for its nuclear program denouncing US hegemony. United States is planning for the ultimate day when troops will be deployed in Iran to takeover its nuclear assets. It needs an outpost near Iran and Afghanistan is the ideal country.  The two countries share a long mountainous border, which is virtually impossible fully monitor and defend.  

China is the second most powerful superpower, which is likely to surpass the gross domestic product of the United States by 2020 and become world’s strongest economic superpower.  United States already has outposts in Taiwan and South Korea, Afghanistan gives them a third root of attack should it be necessary.

Afghanistan was a hostage of the Cold War. The United States supported Pakistan and the USSR patronized Afghanistan and India against Pakistan. After Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 the Soviet leadership anticipated that in order to compensate its defeat in Iran the United States might seek to expand its influence in Afghanistan.

The USSR believed that getting control over Afghanistan could give it a perfect foot hold in South Asia and the Middle East. It would have access to a new ocean and proximity to the vast oil riches of the Middle East. There are no warm water ports in Afghanistan, but getting control over the Khyber Pass, an ancient trade route to China on the East and one step closer to Iran and Turkey on the West and Pakistan on the South, all with warm water ports.

With the disintegration of USSR, despite having tons of lethal arsenals and China focusing on its economy, the sole surviving super power seems too ambitious in establishing its hegemony in South Asia and MENA and Afghanistan appears to be the most ideal outpost. Therefore, probability of end to the US occupation of Afghanistan is hoping against the hopes.