Iranian attack on Israel: All winners no loser

According to Jennifer Baik of AP, the unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel early Sunday ratcheted up regional tensions, confirming long-held fears about the Israel-Hamas war spiraling into a broader conflagration. But Iran, Israel, the United States and Hamas also walked away with some gains.

Israel

As more than 300 drones and missiles headed toward Israel in the early hours of Sunday, the country was able to successfully put to the test its aerial defense array, which, along with help from allies, blocked 99% of the projectiles and prevented any major damage.

By contrast, Israel’s military had suffered a bruising defeat at the hands of a far less equipped enemy when Hamas stormed from Gaza into Israel on October 07, 2023. That was a major blow to Israel’s image as a regional military powerhouse and shattered any sense of invincibility. The response to Iran’s attack could be what restores faith in the country’s military, even as its forces are bogged down in Gaza, more than six months after Israel declared war on Hamas there.

Israel has also boasted about the coalition of forces that helped it repel the Iranian assault. It’s a much-needed show of support at a time when Israel is at its most isolated because of concerns surrounding its conduct during the war against Hamas, including a worsening humanitarian crisis and a staggering death toll in Gaza.

Iran

Iran vowed repeatedly that it would respond to an apparent Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 01 that killed two generals. Sunday’s assault allowed Iran to show to its citizens that it won’t stand by when its assets are attacked and that it was serious when it threatened revenge.

With its strike, Iran was able to exhibit its fierce firepower, instill fear in some Israelis and disrupt the lives of many through school cancellations. But with little damage actually caused in Israel, Iran might hope that any response will be measured. Several hours after it launched the drones and missiles, Iran said the operation was over.

United States

The United States was a key player in repelling the assault, demonstrating to its allies around the world the power and reliability of American support.

Now, as Israel mulls how and whether to respond, that alliance will be put to the test, with the Biden administration seeking to exert its leverage on Israel and prevent it from carrying out a response that might worsen the conflict.

Hamas

Hamas, which is backed by Iran, welcomed the strike on Israel. Since launching its October 07 attack, Hamas had hoped that regional partners might come to its assistance and drag Israel into a broader war. While some have done — including the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen’s Houthis — Iran had not directly entered the fray until Sunday.

Hamas could hope that the attack is the first salvo in deeper Iranian engagement in the war in Gaza. It also could hope that violence in the West Bank, where an Israeli teen was killed and settlers rampaged in Palestinian towns, continues to heat up. At the very least, Iran’s attack may have emboldened Hamas to dig in its heels in current negotiations over a cease-fire, hoping the increased military pressure on Israel might lead it to accept the militant group’s harder-line terms for a deal.

US not to support Israeli attack on Iran

President Joe Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would not participate in any Israeli counter-offensive against Iran, according to reports on Sunday by CNN and the Wall Street Journal.

Speaking with Netanyahu late on Saturday, Biden suggested further response was unnecessary. Senior officials told their counterparts that the US would not participate in an offensive response against Iran, CNN and the Wall Street Journal reported

John Kirby, the White House's top national security spokesperson, told ABC's "This Week" program on Sunday that the United States will continue to help Israel defend itself, but does not want war with Iran.

"We don't seek escalated tensions in the region. We don't seek a wider conflict," Kirby said.

On Saturday night Iran launched drone and missile attacks against Israeli military and intelligence targets in response to the Zionist regime’s air raid on the consular building of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 01 that killed seven Iranian military advisors.

Hossein Salami, the chief of the IRGC, says the initial assessment is that the operation achieved a level of success that exceeded our expectations. However, he said, Iran is still receiving more information.

“Naturally, people living in occupied lands, Zionist officials and the terrorist and occupying armies of the Zionist regime and the US have a better understanding of the pummeling effects of these attacks at this moment,” Salami stated.

Salami said the US and France provided air cover for Israel in Iraq, Jordan and even parts of Syria, but tens of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles managed to punch through the layers of defensive capabilities.

“We could have launched a much larger attack, but we limited it to the capabilities that the Zionist regime had used to attack the Iranian consulate and martyr our dear commanders.”

Iran has warned Israel against reacting to the drone and missile attacks that targeted occupied territories on Saturday night. In a post on X, Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations said the country's attacks against Israeli positions were legal, adding that it can now see the situation as resolved.

"Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe," the statement said. 

Further information shows that for the first time in the past six months, the regime has stopped its attacks on the besieged Gaza Strip to deal with the barrage of drones and missiles coming from the Iranian territory.

 

 

Iran launches ‘Operation Truthful Promise’

Reportedly, Iran has launched retaliatory attacks against Israel, which struck its embassy in Damascus on April 01, killing 7 high-ranking military officials.

Israeli reports say Iran has already fired three waves of drones at Israeli positions, as well as a number of cruise missiles. Footage captured by citizens in Iraq, suggests Iran's famous Shahed-136 drones are among the UAVs launched at Israel.

The initial announcement regarding the launch of the Iranian attacks came from the Israeli military. Daniel Hagari, the army’s spokesperson, stated that the drones would take some hours to reach their destination while emphasizing Israel's readiness for the situation.

During a briefing with the press, Hagari highlighted that Israel has defensive and offensive measures in place and maintains close cooperation with the US and regional partners.

Iran also confirmed it has begun its retaliation against Israel through a TV announcement.

"In response to various crimes of the Zionist regime, including the attack on the Iranian consulate section in Damascus and the martyrdom of some of our country's military commanders and advisors in Syria, the IRGC's Air Force targeted specific objectives inside the occupied territories by hitting them with dozens of missiles and drones," a news anchor said, reading a statement by the Islamic Revolution Gaurd Corps (IRGC).

ABC News has quoted American officials claiming that 400 to 500 drones are currently making their way towards Israel after being launched from Iran's territory.

Before the direct Iranian attack on Israeli targets, Hezbollah initiated a significant rocket barrage targeting the northern areas of occupied Palestine and the Golan Heights.

A cyber attack also plunged vast areas of the occupied territories, including Tel Aviv, into darkness.

Further Information indicates that both the Lebanese group and the Ansarullah movement in Yemen have initiated drone attacks on the occupied territories concurrently with Iranian strikes.

Iran seizes cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz

Iran's Revolutionary Guards seized an Israeli-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the Iranian state-run IRNA news agency reported, days after Tehran warned it could close the area to sea traffic.

IRNA reported that a Guards helicopter had boarded and taken into Iranian waters the Portuguese flagged MSC Aries.

Shipping security agencies had earlier reported a vessel being boarded and seized by regional authorities in the Hormuz Strait between the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

The Aries is leased by international shipping line MSC from Gortal Shipping, an affiliate of Zodiac Maritime, Zodiac said in a statement, adding that MSC is responsible for all vessel activities. Zodiac is partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.

The incident comes amid rising regional tensions since the start of Israel's campaign in Gaza in October last year, with Israel and its ally the United States clashing repeatedly with Iranian-aligned groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Iran had threatened to retaliate for suspected Israeli airstrikes on its consulate in Syria's capital Damascus on April 01 that killed seven Revolutionary Guards officers including two senior commanders.

US President Joe Biden said on Friday he expected Iran to attack Israel sooner, rather than later and warned Tehran not to proceed.

Israel's military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said "Iran will bear consequences for choosing to escalate this situation any further", in response to reports of the seizure of MSC Aries.

On Tuesday the naval head of the Revolutionary Guards, Alireza Tangsiri, said it could close the Strait of Hormuz if deemed necessary.

He said Iran viewed as a threat Israel's presence in the UAE, with which Israel established diplomatic relations in 2020 as part of the "Abraham Accords" mediated by the United States.

Yemen's Houthi group has disrupted global trade in the Red Sea for months, saying it is aiming at vessels linked to Israel in retaliation for Israel's campaign in Gaza.

The United States and Britain have carried out strikes against Houthi targets in response to the attacks on shipping.

The Joint Maritime Information Center, run by a Western-led naval coalition, said vessels intending to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes, should exercise caution and not loiter.

 

 

Biden moving in wrong direction

"The United States ought to be distancing itself from Israel's illegal attack, but instead the Biden administration is moving to shield Israel from the consequences of its own actions," Daniel Larison wrote.

Israeli appears to want to goad Iran into a military response to divert attention from the slaughter and famine in Gaza and to trap the US into joining the fight. Biden has made it that much easier for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by volunteering to walk into the trap.

Israeli forces have routinely struck Iranian and other targets in Syria for more than a decade, but the attack on the consulate in Damascus was a major escalation both in terms of the location and the rank of the Iranian officers that were killed.

An imminent Iranian response to Israel's deadly bombing of Tehran's consulate in the Syrian capital earlier this month is heightening fears of a devastating regional conflict in which the United States—Israel's top ally and arms supplier—could become directly involved.

The US embassy in Jerusalem issued a security warning on Thursday and restricted its employees' travel ahead of a possible Iranian response as soon as Friday. US officials, according to Politico, have assessed that Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message—but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond.

US President Joe Biden and top administration officials have in recent days stressed their "ironclad" commitment to defending Israel in the case of an Iranian reprisal, despite widespread condemnation of Israel's consulate attack as a significant escalation and flagrant violation of international law.

"When the Israeli regime completely violates the immunity of individuals and diplomatic places in violation of international law and the Vienna Conventions, legitimate defense is a necessity," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a statement Thursday.

Two unnamed US officials told CBS News that Iran's response could include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country." Biden administration officials have asked China and other nations to urge Iran not to respond to the consulate attack.

The Israeli government, which is currently waging a catastrophic war on the Gaza Strip, signaled it would respond forcefully to any Iranian retaliation, raising the possibility of direct US involvement.

Axios reported that the senior US military commander in charge of the Middle East visited Israel Thursday to coordinate around a possible attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies.

While war hawks in the US have used the surge in tensions to agitate for a direct American-Israeli attack on Iran, advocacy groups and anti-war commentators have warned against any additional escalation, fearing the eruption of all-out military conflict in the Middle East.

"A regional war involving the US, Israel, and Iran would be disastrous for US interests, the people of Iran, and the security of the region as a whole," the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) said earlier this week.

Responsible Statecraft columnist Daniel Larison wrote Friday that with its unwavering support for the Netanyahu government, the Biden administration is moving in the wrong direction.

 

Terrorists targeting Iranian coastal areas

According to Tehran Times, on April 3, 2024 security forces engaged in a 17-hour battle against terrorists in two separate cities within Iran's southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan.

During the confrontation, 12 members of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and 4 police officers lost their lives as they fought to clear the region of terrorists affiliated with the so-called Jaish-ul-Adl outfit. 

The clash ensued after 18 members of the terrorist group launched simultaneous attacks on five military bases overnight. In Chabahar, they escalated the situation by seizing a residential building and taking civilian hostage while resisting security forces. Ultimately, all 18 terrorists were neutralized.

The terrorist group cited its motive for the attacks as obstructing the "Makran Coasts Development Plan." It claimed that the plan which is expected to rake in millions of dollars for locals in southeastern Iran aims to “change the Sunni demographic” of the region.

Makran, a historically significant region stretching from the mountains west of Jask to portions of Pakistan's Baluchistan province along the Sea of Oman, has witnessed recent infrastructural development by Iran. The Chabahar port has particularly emerged as a crucial trade gateway connecting the Indian Ocean with landlocked nations in Central Asia.

External separatist groups and oppositionists have persistently attempted to discredit the Iranian government's economic initiatives in Sistan and Baluchistan province, portraying them as detrimental to local interests.

Often featured on Western-based news channels, Balouch separatists have propagated sensational claims, including the unfounded assertion that over 20 million Shia Muslims would be relocated to the port city of Chabahar. It's worth noting that Tehran's population, with the capital city having been the economic and cultural hub of Iran, has only increased by 7 million over the past 45 years.

Despite being a Shia-majority nation, Iran ensures equal rights and freedoms for all religious sects and minorities. Every religious group has representation in the parliament, and individuals from diverse backgrounds can ascend to prominent political, diplomatic, and military positions. For instance, the Iranian Army's Navy, one of Iran’s most important military forces, is led by Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, a Sunni commander.

Iran's judiciary and law enforcement authorities also make sure to uphold the rights of religious minorities. As warned by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, the desecration of the sanctities of any religious group is deemed a grave offense with strict legal consequences.

Despite centuries and perhaps thousands of years peaceful coexistence among Iranian citizens, media outlets affiliated with Israel, Western powers, and Wahabi groups persist in sowing discord under various pretexts.

For the past several years, their main tool for destabilizing southeastern Iran and creating friction has been the Jaish-ul-Adl, known within Iran as Jaish-ul-Zolm. Pictures of the individuals liquidated on April 3 show the group had managed to equip its terrorists with advanced weapons, making them resemble members of a conventional army rather than a terrorist entity residing in the deserted mountains of Pakistan. 

"Iran occupies a pivotal position globally, offering significant potential to serve as a key economic corridor in the future. This realization has spurred the nation to intensify its development efforts along coastal regions," remarked Vahid Raz Afzoon, an expert in coastal development, speaking to the Tehran Times.

"Makran, particularly Chabahar, receives special attention from Iranian authorities. The area holds immense promise to evolve into an economic nucleus, providing substantial benefits primarily to the locals of Sistan and Baluchistan, many of whom currently seek employment opportunities in other provinces."

Sistan and Baluchistan province has lagged behind other Iranian regions in terms of economic development. Analysts believe that the development of the Makran coasts could herald a transformative era for the area.

"A multitude of projects exist that could contribute to the prosperity of this region. As progress unfolds, elites from the province, currently residing in urban centers such as Tehran, Esfahan, and Mashhad, will get the chance to work in their hometown," Raz Afzoon elaborated. "Iran, like many other developing nations, has concentrated its development efforts in the capital and surrounding regions. It is imperative that this paradigm shifts. People in all 31 provinces should be able to pursue career opportunities in their hometowns and remain close to their families once they finish their studies,” he added. 

Decentralization is an issue several Asian countries are grappling with including established economies like Japan and South Korea. The Iranian government is also trying to come up with more plans and policies to dial back overdependence on Tehran and its environs. In Iran, however, it seems that authorities have more to overcome than statistical and infrastructural hurdles.

“Separatists residing abroad and terrorists like Jaish-ul-Adl know the development of Makran will benefit everyone including the locals. That’s why you don’t see them coming up with a meaningful argument,” Raz Afzoon stated.  

The routine assaults by terrorists will most likely demotivate foreign investors like India and China, preventing them from spending money on Iran’s mega projects. The longer these attacks continue, the more locals in southeastern Iran are forced to wait to finally enjoy the same amount of prosperity as those residing in the capital. 

In fact, the attacks that shook the region earlier in the month are already taking a toll on the region's economy. Tourism has been booming in Sistan and Baluchistan in the last few years. Chabahar in particular, was one of the most popular tourist destinations for Iranians in 2022 and 2023. With people fearing that they could get tangled in a spontaneous armed clash, travel agencies predict that the city will lose a significant number of visitors in the upcoming cooler seasons.

 

Iran's trade with OIC member states

The value of the trade exchanges between Iran and the other 56 member states of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) reached US$61 billion in the past Iranian calendar year ended on March 19, 2024.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which was formed in 1972, has reached a position where, according to statistics, the future of the world's energy would be in the hands of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Shafeie said in his speech.

The head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) put the volume of the trade exchanges between Iran and OIC member states from March 21, 2023, to March 19, 2024, at 94 million tons.

Iran exported US$29 billion of products to these countries and imported US$32 billion worth of products from them, said Mohammad Rezvanifar while talking to IRNA.

The deputy minister of economy went on to say that the country’s export of products to the OIC members last year registered an 11% decline in value while the import of products from these countries increased 13% as compared to a year ago.

Among the OIC member states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Oman, Afghanistan, Malaysia and Indonesia were Iran’s major trade partners.

Back in May 2023, the former head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) stressed the need for establishing a joint Islamic market among OIC members over the next 10 years.

Addressing a gathering of the heads of OIC member chambers of commerce on the sidelines of the "Russia - Islamic World: Kazan Forum 2023" in Russia, Gholam-Hossein Shafeie said, “An important issue that has been discussed a lot in the past and the organization should pay attention to it in the current situation is the creation of a common Islamic market in the next 10 years, which can be achieved by concluding a free trade agreement among Islamic countries and removing tariff and non-tariff barriers.”

“Experts have worked on the Islamic market plan, and using the experiences and studies of these experts can definitely be a way forward,” he added.

 

Iran Conundrum

Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew said Khamenei was "trapped in a strategic conundrum".

"Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain credibility among its Resistance Front allies. But on the other hand, retaliating to restore deterrence would likely bring an even greater, and more destructive Israeli response, likely with US assistance," he said.

The Iranian sources said the United States had asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Tehran that in the event of a direct attack it will stand by Israel.

Iran believes Netanyahu aims to draw Tehran into a war; therefore its retaliation could be a restrained one that avoids direct strikes on Israeli territory and may draw on Tehran's allies.

Reportedly, the US Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel.

A source familiar with the issue said the US might well agree to revived nuclear talks if that could prevent a conflagration.

“If we are talking about talks and not (about) reaching an agreement, then it would seem to be well worth the price if the payoff is minimizing the risk of a regional escalation into which the US would be dragged,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma was "to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head".

"Israel is much more unpredictable than the US," he said. "The Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that rather than delivering the deterrent effect he might hope to achieve, an attack on Israel may only fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid."

 

Pakistan’s antagonized relations with its neighbors

Pakistan's relationships with its neighboring countries have been strained for several decades, with current tensions particularly evident with Iran, Afghanistan, and India. These strained relations stem from a complex history and various geopolitical factors.

Historically, Pakistan enjoyed close ties with Iran, notably during the RCD era. However, following the revolution in Iran, relations soured, partly due to pressure from the United States. US-imposed sanctions on Iran and efforts to isolate it, including influencing Saudi Arabia to sever ties, further exacerbated tensions. Allegations suggest that countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait supported Iraq during its decade-long war with Iran.

The Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, once of significant importance, faced setbacks due to US influence. India, under US pressure, withdrew from the project, citing the threat of economic sanctions. In an attempt to mitigate these challenges, Pakistan turned to Saudi Arabia for crude oil supplies on deferred payment terms.

Despite hopes for improved relations following diplomatic efforts brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran, ongoing cross-border terrorism activities between Pakistan and Iran have hindered progress on projects like the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been marked by fluctuating dynamics, oscillating between cooperation and hostility. India's involvement, including support for anti-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan and participation in infrastructure projects like the Chabahar Port, has further complicated matters, seeking to undermine Pakistan's regional influence.

US foreign policy interests heavily influence the dynamics between India and Pakistan, with the former receiving substantial military support to counterbalance China, often at Pakistan's expense. Some analysts believe that entrenched hard-line positions in both countries will continue to hinder any prospects for improved relations.

Critics argue that Pakistan's foreign policy, historically aligned with US interests, prevents the country from overcoming its most pressing challenges independently. This dependence on external support, particularly from the United States, perpetuates Pakistan's vulnerability in international affairs.

Iranian LPG export on upward trajectory

Iran became the biggest West Asian supplier of Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) last year. Its LPG exports surged 28% to over 11 million tons, according to an analysis of ship tracking data and market intelligence by consultancy Facts Global Energy (FGE). The firm expects exports to continue climbing beyond 12 million tons this year, Bloomberg reported

The increase is driven by rising production from the South Pars gas field as well as greater shipping capacity between Iran and China.

Iran exported 4.71 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the first six months of 2023, according to the data released by S&P Global Platts.

Based on the Platts data, Iran's LPG exports loading in June were estimated at around 696,000 million tons, 28.5 percent less than May when 973,260 million tons of LPG was shipped.

Iran's average monthly LPG export in the first half of the past year was 784,833 tons.

Iran’s LPG exports mostly go to China despite the US sanctions, facilitated by Chinese shipowners who have developed an armada of very large gas carriers since sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2014 and then in 2018.

The Islamic Republic’s LPG exports could be higher without the restrictions that international shipping and trading firms face due to the sanctions and allow Iranian exporters to resume access to the global markets.

Liquefied petroleum gas, also referred to as liquid petroleum gas (LPG or LP gas), is a fuel gas that contains a flammable mixture of hydrocarbon gases, specifically propane, n-butane, and isobutane. It can sometimes contain some propylene, butylene, and isobutene.

LPG is used as a fuel gas in heating appliances, cooking equipment, and vehicles. It is increasingly used as an aerosol propellant and a refrigerant, replacing chlorofluorocarbons to reduce damage to the ozone layer. When specifically used as a vehicle fuel, it is often referred to as autogas or even just as gas.

 

 

If Iran attacks US interest in Middle East?

Israeli airstrike on an Iranian Embassy compound in Syrian capital has spurred fears of a renewed aim at the US interests in the region, despite the US officials claiming no advanced knowledge of the attack. 

Former U.S. officials and experts say the strike, which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said killed two senior members and five officers Monday in Damascus, could mean renewed attacks on the US troops and bases in Iraq and Syria by Tehran-backed proxies.

Though the US has denied any involvement in the Damascus strike — which happened during the day on a diplomatic building near Iran’s Embassy — being Israel’s biggest ally has put Washington in the crosshairs of any retaliation from Iran.

Experts agree that any Iranian response has to be carefully calibrated to avoid a costly all-out war involving the US or its key regional ally.

By not responding, Iran will look weak, both its own forces and to its allies. It seems Iran is also very cautious about getting into any encounter with the United States or with Israel. 

The Pentagon indicated that officials were concerned Israel’s strike against Iran may increase the risk to US troops in the region.

Israel has not taken responsibility for the airstrike, the US assessed that Israel was responsible.

Israel also appeared to be preparing for blowback from the strike Thursday, when its military announced it was suspending leave for reservists.  

Iran blames United States and Israel for attack on its embassy in Syria

Iran is engaged in the first part of its response to an airstrike on Monday in Damascus, which it blames on Israel. It also blames the United States.

This shows how Iran is seeking to link the incident that killed several key Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members to a wider regional struggle in which Iran is engaged in trying to reduce US influence in the region.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has highlighted the attack on the consulate compound in Damascus and also sought to spotlight what Iran claims is the “American administration’s responsibility.”

Iran buried members of the IRGC killed in Damascus, which included Quds Force commander for operations in Syria and Lebanon Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, his deputy, and five of their accompanying officers, according to Iran’s pro-government Fars News.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi phoned Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and lashed out at the West for continuing to provide financial and military support to Israel amid the Gaza war, and stressed the Zionist regime does not adhere to any of the humanitarian and international principles.

“There is no doubt that Zionists and their supporters are responsible,” Raisi said.

“The Syrian president stressed that the Zionist regime seeks to escape from the quagmire it is caught in by the Palestinian resistance in the besieged enclave and emphasized the need to support the axis of resistance,” the report noted.

At the same time, in a statement to the UN, the Iranian envoy said, “Yesterday, we urgently notified the Security Council members of yet another flagrant violation of international law committed by the Israeli regime within Syria territory.

As reflected in our letter, on April 01, 2024 our diplomatic premises in Damascus came under terrorist attacks carried out by the Israeli regime.

Seven missile airstrikes from the occupied Golan Heights, specifically and intentionally targeted the diplomatic premises of Iran including the consular section building and the ambassador’s residence.”

The Iranian envoy said, “The final and accurate death toll remains uncertain as the entire diplomatic premises has been destroyed, with individuals trapped under the rubble.”

Iran wants the United Nations Security Council to do more in the wake of the airstrike. Iran has also sought to get Russia’s support and to mobilize condemnation in the Gulf countries which have reconciled or normalized with the Syrian regime in the last two years.

This means that they have a vested interest in condemning an attack on a diplomatic post in Damascus. The fact is the building next to the Iranian consulate was not a purely diplomatic site, as it was used by the IRGC.

However, from the standpoint of the Gulf states, it is worthwhile to appear to condemn the strike. Iran and Saudi Arabia also reconciled last year, meaning Riyadh has an interest in appearing to condemn the attack.

Iran is trying to mobilize this diplomatic support before lashing out with its promised retaliation.

 In the past, Iran has attacked Erbil in Iraq when it wanted to retaliate. In 2020 it fired ballistic missiles at a base in Iraq in retaliation for the US killing of IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani.

Iran has already mobilized its militias and proxies in various countries since October 07 to attack Israel and US forces in Iraq and Syria. In addition, the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah targeted US forces in Jordan in January.

As such, the Iranian claim that is retaliating is a bit of a stretch, because it is Iran that has been attacking throughout the region. However, Iran wants the sympathy of other countries and it wants an official record of this attack in Damascus, so it can claim a right to respond. Iran also wants to leverage this with Russia, China and other states. 

 

OPEC oil output falls in March

According to Reuters, OPEC oil output declined in March 2024, reflecting lower exports from Iraq and Nigeria against a backdrop of ongoing voluntary supply cuts by some members agreed with the wider OPEC Plus alliance.

OPEC Plus is scheduled to hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting on April 03 to review the market and members' implementation of output cuts they have already agreed to extend. However, the panel is unlikely to recommend any oil output policy changes.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2024, down 50,000 bpd from February 2024, based on shipping data and information from industry sources.

Several members of OPEC Plus, which includes OPEC, Russia and other allies, made new cuts in January 2024 to counter economic weakness and increased supply outside the group. Producers agreed last month to keep them in place until the end of June.

An OPEC Plus panel of key ministers meets on Wednesday to review the market and members' production, and is not expected to recommend any policy changes ahead of the group's next full meeting set for June 01, 2024.

The biggest output reductions in March came from Iraq and Nigeria. Iraq promised to lower exports to make up for pumping above its OPEC target, a pledge that would cut shipments by 130,000 bpd from February.

OPEC fell about 190,000 bpd short of its targeted cuts in March, largely because of Iraq, Nigeria and Gabon pumping more than they had aimed for.

Gulf producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates each kept output close to their voluntary targets, as did Algeria.

Output in Iran, exempt from quotas, edged lower. Iran is still pumping near a five-year high reached in November after posting one of OPEC's biggest output increases in 2023 despite US sanctions still in place.

There was no significant rise in output from any OPEC country. Libya, also exempt from quotas, pumped an extra 20,000 bpd as the country's output returned to normal after disruption in February.

Reuters aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, LSEG flows data, information from companies that track flows - such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler - and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.

 

 

 

 

Iran accuses Israel of bombing its embassy in Syria

According to Reuters, suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran's embassy in Syria on Monday in a strike that Iran said killed seven of its military advisers, including three senior commanders, and that marked a major escalation in Israel's war with its regional adversaries.

Reuters reporters at the site in the Mezzeh district of Damascus saw emergency workers clambering atop rubble of a destroyed building inside the diplomatic compound, adjacent to the main Iranian embassy building. Emergency vehicles were parked outside. An Iranian flag hung from a pole by the debris.

"We strongly condemn this atrocious terrorist attack that targeted the Iranian consulate building in Damascus and killed a number of innocents," said Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad who was seen at the site along with Syria's interior minister.

Iran's ambassador to Syria said the strike hit a consular building in the embassy compound and that his residence was on the top two floors.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement that seven Iranian military advisers died in the strike including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in its Quds Force, which is an elite foreign espionage and paramilitary arm.

Israel has long targeted Iran's military installations in Syria and those of its proxies, but Monday's attack was the first time Israel hit the vast embassy compound itself.

Israel has ramped up those strikes in parallel with its campaign against Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas.

More than 32,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's offensive in Gaza, according to Palestinian health authorities.

Israel' military has escalated airstrikes in Syria against Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, both of which support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Israel typically does not discuss attacks by its forces on Syria. Asked about the strike, an Israeli military spokesperson said, "We do not comment on reports in the foreign media".

The New York Times cited four unnamed Israeli officials as acknowledging Israel had carried out the attack.

Iran's UN mission described the strike as a "flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter, international law, and the foundational principle of the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises."

Saying the strike was "a significant threat to regional peace and security," the Iranian mission urged the UN Security Council to condemn the attack and said Tehran reserved the right "to take a decisive response."

Hezbollah, the Lebanese group seen as Iran's most powerful armed proxy in the region, vowed to retaliate. "This crime will not pass without the enemy receiving punishment and revenge," the group said in a statement.

Muslim nations including Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also condemned the attack, as did Russia.

Earlier, Iran's ambassador to Syria Hossein Akbari, who was unharmed, told Iranian state TV that five to seven people, including diplomats, were killed and Tehran's response would be "harsh".

Iranian state media said Tehran believed Zahedi was the target of the attack. His deputy and another senior commander were also killed along with four others.

Iran's Arabic Language Al Alam Television said that Zahedi was a military adviser in Syria who served as the head of the Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016.

US refuses to support Pak-Iran gas pipeline

The news that United States could impose sanctions on the country if it goes ahead with Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline has been received with utter disappointment. It is likely to increase hatred against the super power, which is alleged of toppling Iman Khan Government in Pakistan.

According to DAWN, the US said on Tuesday it does not support a Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project from going forward and cautioned about the risk of sanctions in doing business with Tehran.

A day earlier, Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik had said that Islamabad would seek exemption from US sanctions over the gas pipeline project.

The Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline is a long-term project between Tehran and Islamabad, and has faced delays and funding challenges for several years.

“We always advise everyone that doing business with Iran runs the risk of touching upon and coming in contact with our sanctions, and would advise everyone to consider that very carefully,” a US State Department spokesperson told reporters in a press briefing.

“We do not support this pipeline going forward,” the spokesperson added, saying that Donald Lu, the State Department’s top official for South and Central Asia, had said as much to a congressional panel last week.

 

 

US opposition of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline

While US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu’s recent testimony before a Congressional panel contained no bombshells about the cipher saga, the American diplomat’s replies to questions from lawmakers about the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline should certainly be cause for concern.

American reservations over the gas project clearly infringe on Pakistan’s sovereign right to take independent foreign policy decisions.

Lu told lawmakers that it was an American goal to ensure the pipeline is not completed. Using highly undiplomatic language, he observed that if they [Pakistan] get in bed with Iran, it will be very serious for our relationship.

The Foreign Office reaction to these comments was measured, as the spokesperson told the media that there was no room for discussion on a third-party [US] waiver, while the pipeline plays an important role in Pakistan’s energy security.

It is hoped that the state remains steadfast in upholding its commitments to the project, and rejects unwarranted foreign pressure.

Until the caretaker government gave the go-ahead for revitalizing the pipeline last month, the scheme had been in the doldrums for over a decade, mainly out of concern over attracting America’s wrath.

Pakistan should be the best judge of its energy requirements, and unsolicited advice such as that offered by Lu should be rejected with thanks. The American official also questioned how Pakistan would procure the financing to complete the scheme. Again, that should be Pakistan’s headache, not anyone else’s.

The fact is that the Iran pipeline appears to be a viable energy project, as the other major regional scheme — the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline — is in deep freeze particularly after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Moreover, if Pakistan reneges on the deal with Iran, it risks entering a messy litigation process, and paying a hefty US$18 billion in penalty.

Lu’s comments should also serve as a warning to our policymakers of the demands some of our friends may make of us in future as geopolitical turbulence increases.

For instance, today, Washington has issues with CPEC and the Iran pipeline; tomorrow it could let its displeasure be known regarding our relations with Moscow or other American foes.

Pakistan should be ready to face such criticism, and take decisions that are in the national interest.

Pakistan values its ties with the US and other Western states. But this does not mean relations with other states/ blocs should be held hostage to the whims of its Western partners.

However, it is also true that Pakistan can only take truly independent decisions when it does not have to depend on others to keep its economy afloat.

India and China can ignore US strictures about not trading with Russia because of their economic heft. Pakistan must heal itself if it wants to achieve true sovereignty.

Courtesy: Dawn

Iran Expo 2024 to host 3,000 foreigners

Some 3,000 foreign traders and businessmen are expected to participate in the 6th International Export Potential Exhibition of the Islamic Republic of Iran, dubbed Iran Expo 2024, an official with the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) said.

The exhibition will be inaugurated on April 27 and run through May 1, 2024, the ICCIMA deputy head for commissions, assemblies, and council affairs stated in a meeting held with the participation of representatives of the joint chamber of commerce.

Noting that the first edition of the Iran Expo was held in 2013, Ali Chagharvand predicted that 3,000 foreign traders and merchants from various countries would partake in the latest edition of the exhibition.

This exhibition will cover seven major groups of commodities including food industries, agriculture and fisheries, handwoven carpets, handicrafts and tourism, medicine, medical equipment and chemical products, building industry, technical and engineering services, and also the petrochemical group.

Promoting trade and economic relations with other countries, booming production, propelling the business environment of the private sector to the international arena, and creating a new trade and economic discourse with various countries have been cited as the main aims of holding the exhibition.

The meeting was attended by the Chairman of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce Majid Reza Hariri and Vice Chairman of the Iran-Russia Joint Chamber of Commerce Roshanali Yekta.

 

United States: Disrupter of Global Trade

Washington has taken further steps to increase pressure on Tehran. This time, the White House, despite the negative impact of its decisions on the global stage, has leveraged its political influence on Panama to counter Tehran’s expansion of foreign policy.

The US has opted to exert pressure on Panama to prohibit Iranian vessels, sanctioned by Washington, from flying its flag. During a visit to Panama on Wednesday, Abram Paley, Deputy Special Envoy in the US Office of the Special Envoy for Iran, stated that the measure aims to prevent ships from being utilized for what he termed as illegal actions.

Paley emphasized in a statement that the US is endeavoring to enhance the enforcement of sanctions as part of a broader diplomatic outreach campaign. "Iran and affiliated entities are attempting to circumvent sanctions here in Panama," he remarked. "They seek to exploit Panama's flag registry."

"We anticipate that the Panamanian government will continue to collaborate with us in accordance with their domestic legislation and international commitments," Paley added.

Washington's recent action follows shortly after Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji declared that Tehran's oil sales would remain unaffected by sanctions, even if Donald Trump were to win the US presidential elections in November.

Panama leads globally in providing flags of convenience, enabling shipping companies to register their vessels in countries with which they have no connection — for a fee and exemption from oversight.

It appears that the White House intends to reinforce the implementation of existing sanctions as the regional crisis escalates. This move by Washington stands in stark contrast to what Washington's Iran hawks call Biden's appeasement policy in West Asia.

The United States has consistently wielded its power as leverage to advance its interests, regardless of the potential repercussions on the regional and international scale. This approach is evident in the consistent US formula for intervening in the policy-making systems of other countries.

For instance, Washington's policy towards Caracas and the imposition of sanctions on Venezuela have served as tools for intervening in Venezuela's political system. Similarly, the US employs similar tactics in West Asia, as evidenced by the array of American military bases in the region and unwavering support for Tel Aviv. These actions reflect a policy that prioritizes Washington's interests above all else, irrespective of their broader effects.

The Biden Administration's pressure on Panama exemplifies this approach, indicating that Washington is not inclined to pursue diplomatic channels in its dealings with Iran. Instead, the primary objective appears to be preventing the Islamic Republic of Iran from expanding its political influence.

Despite the Biden administration's initial endorsement of a more conciliatory policy in West Asia and its expressed willingness to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally called the JCPOA, the White House has demonstrated a lack of political resolve to take concrete actions. Moreover, the Biden administration has yet to lift any sanctions on Iran, failing to demonstrate a tangible commitment to resolving issues through diplomatic means. 

The recent US stance in Panama and its maneuver in the Red Sea have triggered alarm bells regarding their potential ramifications on the seamless flow of global trade. What emerges from these developments is a pattern of US behavior wherein the pursuit of its own interests takes precedence, even at the expense of disrupting international commerce. 

Take, for instance, the situation in Panama. The US exertion of pressure seems to transcend the immediate issue at hand, instead serving as a means to constrain Iran's influence. This strategic maneuver underscores Washington's inclination to prioritize geopolitical objectives over the broader interests of global trade. Similarly, the US confrontational stance towards certain factions in the Red Sea region has stirred unnecessary friction along a crucial trade artery.

Such actions raise legitimate concerns about the US approach to international affairs. By prioritizing its own objectives over collaborative efforts aimed at fostering global economic stability, the US risks sowing seeds of discord that could have far-reaching consequences. Indeed, this prioritization of unilateral interests over multilateral cooperation threatens to set off a chain reaction of instability, imperiling the very foundation upon which the global economy rests.

As the world navigates through increasingly complex geopolitical terrain, it becomes imperative for nations to uphold principles of cooperation and mutual benefit. The recent US actions serve as a sobering reminder of the dangers inherent in a myopic pursuit of national interests at the expense of broader global imperatives. Only through concerted efforts to promote dialogue, understanding, and collaboration can we hope to safeguard the integrity of the global trade system and steer clear of the choppy waters of economic uncertainty.

 

 

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Iran-Pakistan to sign Free Trade Agreement

Iranian Ambassador Dr Reza Amiri Moghadam has indicated that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is likely to be finalized in the upcoming visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan.

Addressing the business community during his visit to the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI), the Iranian envoy said the FTA would increase mutual trade and several bilateral economic and trade agreements would also be signed during the visit.

He also said that the two countries need to have strong air, maritime and sea links, which will strengthen the economic relations and Pakistan, will also be connected to regional and global trade.

The ambassador emphasized the closeness of maritime links, especially Karachi and Gwadar and Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports and said that Gwadar and Chabahar should be declared as sister ports.

The current bilateral trade volume paltry US$2.5 billion. Pakistan and Iran can fulfill 70% of each other’s needs by engaging in mutual trade, just as Iran imports halal meat, Pakistan can do a lot of work in Iran in this sector.

“After the FTA and bilateral agreements for the promotion of mutual trade, there is a strong possibility that the mutual trade between Pakistan and Iran would reach US$5 billion in the next few years,” he added.

The envoy added that the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline was a significant project, which would benefit both the domestic and industrial sectors of Pakistan.

“Iran is serious about resolving Pakistan’s energy problems and that is why Tehran completed the gas pipeline project for US$1 billion in 2009 so that Pakistan could meet its energy needs,” he said, adding that it was essential that the project is completed at the earliest.

He added that Iran was already trading in gas and the energy sector with Turkiye, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, therefore Pakistan can also follow the procedure adopted by these countries.

He acknowledged that the banking channel between Pakistan and Iran was a serious issue, but Iran has banking links with Turkiye, Bahrain and Iraq.