Pakistan stock market up 3% in 3Q2024

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, topline Securities, the benchmark KSE-100 index has posted 3.4%QoQ in rupee and 3.7% in US dollar terms in 3Q2024, marking the sixth consecutive quarter in positive trajectory.

Continuation of positive momentum is attributed to: 1) firstly the completion of staff level agreement with IMF at start of 3Q2024, 2) IMF board approval and disbursement of first tranche to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) at the end of quarter, 3) Inflation entering single digits for the first time since October 2021, 4) reduction in policy rate by 300bps to 17.5%, 5) improvement in country’s credit rating according to major credit rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch, 6) better than expected current account number, which entered surplus in August, and 7) stability in currency amidst strong dollar inflows.

As per Bloomberg data, Pakistan market remained 4th best performer in 2Q2024 with total US$ return of 17% However in 3Q2024 the ranking stood at 66 in World Equity Index.

The continuation of positive momentum in stock market has been accompanied by healthy trading activity with average daily traded volumes in the Cash and Ready market increased by 74%YoY to 490 million shares. The average traded value also jumped by 86%YoY to PKR18 billion/ day during 3Q20204.

The average volumes in the Futures market also increased by 61%YoY and by 8%QoQ to 172 million shares/ day. The average traded value of the same increased by 57%YoY and by 4%QoQ to PKR7.2 billion/ day. Increase on a QoQ basis is due to lower interest rates in 3Q2024.

During 3Q2024, foreigners emerged net sellers of PKR4.68 billion (US$16.8 million) as against net buyers of PKR18.3 billion (US$65.8 million) in 2Q2024. Reversal of positive trend was due to FTSE rebalancing related foreign selling during the quarter which is expected to trail off into 4Q2024 as well.

Investor concerns regarding FTSE rebalancing related selling were mitigated by selling being absorbed by both local and foreign investors and the market maintaining its positive momentum.

On the local front, mutual funds were major buyers with net buy of US$14.2 million followed by Banks and DFIs with net buy of US$7.5 million. Individuals were the biggest net buyers to the tune of US$45.8 million. However, Insurance and Companies remained sellers of US$15.5 million and US$15.5 million respectively in the quarter under review.

The key scrips of KSE-100 index that outperformed market in 3Q2024 included National Bank (NBP) up 62%, Mari Petroleum (MARI) up 44%, and Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) up 42%.

Key sectors that outperformed market during the quarter included Jute, Pharmaceuticals and Transport.

Market outlook

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held on September 12, 2024, decided to reduce the policy rate by 200bps to 17.5%. This was the third consecutive rate cut announced by central bank in response to receding inflation readings in past few months due to high base effect, falling food prices and comfortable external position.

Interest rate: The Committee noted that the pace of disinflation has exceeded committee’s earlier expectations due to delay in implementation of planned increases in administered energy prices and favorable movement in global oil and food prices. Since inflation is expected to remain in single digit in next quarter, further policy rate cut cannot be ruled out.

Rating Revision: IMF’s executive board approved Pakistan’s US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) on September 25, 2024. Following this approval, an upgrade of Pakistan’s rating by international agencies like Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P cannot be ruled out.

MSCI Inflows: MSCI Semi-Annual Index Review is scheduled for Nov 07, 2024 where we are expecting further increase in weight of Pakistan due to continued bull-run of market.

Commodity Prices: Outlook of Pakistan's economy will also be dependent upon commodity prices going forward. Brent oil prices have declined from average of US$85/bbl in 2Q2024 to US$79/bbl in 3Q2024. The petroleum group makes up a major portion of Pakistan’s imports and was 30% of total imports in 2MFY25.

 

Israel becoming a threat to world peace

When war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before the UN Assembly and claimed that there was a missile in every kitchen in Lebanon, the subtext of this absurd assertion was loud and clear – Israel will claim Hezbollah is using civilians as human shields as cover to expand their genocidal killing spree to Lebanon with impunity, just as they have done to excuse their massacres of civilians in Gaza. 

Shortly after that speech on Friday, Israel dropped 87 tons of United States supplied bombs on the suburbs of southern Beirut, Lebanon, assassinating Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and a yet undetermined number of innocent civilians.

This is not the first political assassination carried out during this nearly yearlong terror campaign by Israel. In July, Israel assassinated Hamas’ chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Nasrallah’s assassination will certainly add yet more fuel to the fire burning out of control in the Middle East.

Kamala Harris’ response to this dangerous escalation was swift – she praised the assassination of Nasrallah, claiming that today Hezbollah’s victims have a measure of peace while reiterating her unwavering support to Israel, assuring that she will continue to provide them with US weapons and billions upon billions of taxpayers’ money to fund their carnage across the region.

Lately the Biden-Harris administration approved another 8.7 billion dollar weapons transfer to aid and abet Israeli war crimes.

What was missing from Kamala’s statement was any measure of concern for the people of Lebanon as they’re victimized by the kind of shock and awe bombing campaigns reminiscent of George W. Bush and prominent Kamala Harris endorser Dick Cheney in the early 2000s when they launched their illegal invasion of Iraq.

In fact, even George Bush demonstrated more concern for the loss of 12 innocent lives in 2002, when he condemned a residential bombing in the West Bank that assassinated a leader of Hamas. At least 1000 people have been killed since Israel started its onslaught of violence in Lebanon two weeks ago, and the death toll of this most recent bombing of six residential buildings is still unknown as teams comb through the rubble for human remains.

Biden and Harris are following Netanyahu headlong into an escalating cycle of violence that can only lead to more war, death, and suffering.

As Israel slaughters tens of thousands of innocent civilians with full US backing, they are creating more enemies than they can ever assassinate.

The United States need new leadership to stop this military madness by cutting off all US arms and funding to Israel to force an immediate ceasefire and end to the illegal occupation of Palestine.

 

 

Israeli strike on Hezbollah good for the world

US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby joined CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday morning, where he said Israel’s recent strikes that killed Hezbollah leaders were “good for the world” and called for a ceasefire.

“I think having decimated the command structure of Hezbollah certainly works to the Israeli’s advantage,” Kirby said.

“It’s actually good for the region, good for the world.”

Kirby’s appearance followed Israel’s recent attack on Hezbollah. The Lebanese militant group confirmed over the weekend that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah and other top officials, were killed in strikes.

In statements online, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Nasrallah was killed in the suburb of the capital in a strike that targeted the command center used by the group.

A day later, another leader, Nabil Kaouk, was also confirmed by the IDF to have been killed.

Kirby said Sunday he doesn’t think “anyone is mourning” the death of Nasrallah but continued his calls for Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire before the tensions in the region expand to a regional war. 

Hezbollah will likely rebuild after the deaths, and Kirby said the United States is “watching to see what they do to try to fill this leadership back in.”

 

Israel brings the world to a ghastly war

The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, alongside Iranian General Ali Nilforushan, has escalated tensions in the Middle East to dangerous levels, potentially triggering a regional conflict involving numerous proxies. Some analysts now even refer to the United States as an Israeli proxy.

On Friday, a large-scale Israeli strike in Beirut resulted in the death of Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah. Given Nasrallah’s pivotal role in Lebanese politics, regional geopolitics, and Hezbollah’s position as a central figure in the 'Axis of Resistance,' his assassination is poised to send shockwaves throughout the Middle East.

Since October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with Israel following Hamas’s armed incursion into Israeli territory. In the ensuing weeks, Israel has intensified its operations inside Lebanon, launching a brutal bombing campaign that, as of Monday, has claimed hundreds of lives and displaced tens of thousands of people. Israeli forces have been systematically targeting key Hezbollah commanders for months, with Nasrallah’s killing being the most significant blow to the movement.

While Israel may have secured a tactical victory with Nasrallah’s assassination, it risks unleashing a cycle of violence that could spiral out of control. This echoes the assassination of Abbas Musawi, Nasrallah’s predecessor, by Israel in 1992, which, despite Musawi’s death, only strengthened Hezbollah. Under Nasrallah’s leadership, the group became one of the most formidable armed non-state actors in the region, playing a key role in ending Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000.

Similarly, Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was assassinated by Israel in 2004, yet his organization remains a powerful political and military force within the Palestinian territories. Israel’s strategy of targeted killings has repeatedly backfired, as these movements often emerge more resilient, committed to retaliation.

While Hezbollah may be reeling from this latest loss, the group remains defiant. In a statement, they vowed to continue “confronting the enemy.” Iran’s Supreme Leader has also pledged continued support for Hezbollah and Lebanon, pushing the region into highly volatile territory.

Israel’s actions, including its unrelenting bombing campaign in Gaza and the targeted killings of Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, suggest it is seeking a broader confrontation with Iran and its allies. Moreover, some argue that Israel is attempting to drag the United States—its staunchest ally—into the conflict.

Israel’s aggressive posture has now brought the world to the edge of a major war.

Iranian General killed alongside Nasrallah

A prominent Iranian general in the Revolutionary Guard, Gen. Abbas Nilforushan, was killed in an Israeli airstrike that also claimed the life of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, according to Iranian media reports on Saturday.

The strike occurred in Beirut on Friday as part of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has pushed the conflict closer to becoming a full-scale regional confrontation.

Nilforushan, 58, held a senior position as the deputy commander for operations in the Revolutionary Guard, overseeing ground forces. His presence in Lebanon during the strike has raised questions, although his role in the region highlights Iran’s long-standing support of Hezbollah.

The Tehran Times and other state-run media confirmed his death, with Iranian officials, including Ahmad Reza Pour Khaghan, deputy head of Iran’s judiciary, describing him as a "guest to the people of Lebanon." Khaghan stressed that Iran reserves the right to retaliate under international law.

Nilforushan’s death adds to the growing list of casualties within Iran's military leadership as Israel continues its operations against Hezbollah, which has been heavily involved in the conflict. Iranian support for Hezbollah has long been a source of tension, with the Guard’s Quds Force arming and training the militia in Lebanon.

The airstrike marks a significant blow to Iran’s military presence in the region, coming on the heels of the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was reportedly killed in Tehran earlier this year.

Both Hezbollah and Iran have vowed retaliation for these high-profile losses, intensifying concerns of a broader Middle Eastern war. 

World reaction on killing of Hezbollah Leader

The Lebanese group Hezbollah has confirmed the death of Hassan Nasrallah, its longtime leader, in an air strike on the group’s underground headquarters near the capital, Beirut.

Hours after Israel claimed killing the 64-year-old Nasrallah on Saturday said its leader “has joined his fellow martyrs” and pledged it would “continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine” amid fears that a regional war is now inevitable.

Israel carried out a large strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Friday evening, which it said targeted the Hezbollah leader, flattening at least six residential buildings.

Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for more than three decades, was by far the most powerful target to be killed by Israel in weeks of intensified fighting with Hezbollah.

According to the United Nations, more than 50,000 people have fled Lebanon for Syria, as Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have killed at least 700 people since Monday.

Israeli jets pounded south Beirut and its outskirts throughout the night into Saturday, in the most intense attacks on the Hezbollah stronghold since the group and Israel last went to war in 2006.

Nasrallah had rarely been seen in public since 2006. He was elected secretary-general of Hezbollah in 1992, aged 32, after an Israeli helicopter gunship killed his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi.

Hezbollah

The Lebanese group confirmed in a statement its leader had been killed “following the treacherous Zionist strike on the southern suburbs” of Beirut.

The group’s statement said Nasrallah had “joined his great and immortal martyred comrades, whose path he led for nearly 30 years, during which he led them from victory to victory”.

The group said it pledged “to the highest, most sacred and most precious martyr in our journey” to “continue its jihad in confronting the enemy, in support of Gaza and Palestine, and in defence of Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people”.

Hamas

Hamas has condemned the killing of the Lebanese leader as “cowardly, terrorist act”.

“We condemn in the strongest terms this barbaric Zionist aggression and targeting of residential buildings,” the group said in a statement, accusing Israel of disregarding “all international values, customs and charters” and “blatantly threatening international security and peace, in light of silence, helplessness and international neglect”.

“In the face of this Zionist crime and massacre, we renew our absolute solidarity and stand united with the brothers in Hezbollah and the Islamic resistance in Lebanon,” the group said.

Fatah

The Palestinian Fatah movement also offered condolences and condemned the assassination, emphasizing “the historical relationship between the Lebanese people and their resistance and Palestine”.

Iran

Mourning Nasrallah’s killing, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said in a post on X that “the glorious path of the Resistance leader … will continue and his sacred goal of liberating Jerusalem will be achieved.”

Iranian Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif also expressed his condolences, praising Nasrallah as a “symbol of the fight against oppression”.

Earlier, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned what he called Israel’s “short-sighted” policy in the region.

“The massacre of the defenceless people in Lebanon once again… proved the short-sighted and stupid policy of the leaders of the usurping regime,” Khamenei said in a statement before Hezbollah officially announced its leader’s death.

Iraq

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani condemned the attack as “shameful” and “a crime that shows the Zionist entity has crossed all the red lines”.

In a statement, Sudani called Nasrallah “a martyr on the path of the righteous”.

The leader of the Sadrist movement in Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr, announced three days of mourning, writing on X: “Farewell to the companion of the path of resistance and defiance.”

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel’s recent attacks in Lebanon as part of what he called an Israeli policy of “genocide, occupation, and invasion”, urging the UN Security Council and other bodies to stop Israel.

In a post on X, Erdogan, without naming Nasrallah, said Turkey stood with the Lebanese people and its government, offering his condolences for those killed in the Israeli strikes, while saying the Muslim world should show a more “determined” stance.

France

The French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs said in a statement that it is in contact with the Lebanese authorities and France’s partners in the region to prevent destabilization and conflagration.

The ministry also stressed that the security and protection of civilians must be guaranteed.

Courtesy: Al Jazeera 

 

Israel kills Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Beirut

The Israeli military declared on Saturday that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been killed in an airstrike in Beirut on Friday.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah and one of its founders, was eliminated together with Ali Karki, the Commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front, and additional Hezbollah commanders, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement.

Nasrallah, aged 64, was one of the founders and secretary general of Hezbollah. He has led Hezbollah for more than three decades. Nasrallah oversaw Hezbollah’s transformation into one of the most powerful paramilitary forces in the Middle East.

Israeli Air Force jets conducted a targeted strike on the central headquarters of the Hezbollah, which was located underground embedded under a residential building in the area of Dahiyeh in Beirut,” the IDF said.

“The strike was conducted while Hezbollah’s senior chain of command were operating from the headquarters and advancing terrorist activities against the citizens of the State of Israel,” sources added.

Following the announcement, the army chief warned this is “not the end of our toolbox.” Israel has been escalating its attacks on Hezbollah.

Overnight, Israel launched further strikes on southern Lebanon, targeting what it says are stores of Hezbollah weapons. State-run media in Lebanon says there have been casualties.

Lebanon has recorded more than 100,000 people displaced by the recent conflict, but authorities said the true number is likely much higher. Up to half a million people are likely internally displaced, said Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s health minister.

Hezbollah began firing on northern Israel the day after Hamas’ October 07 attack on the country. Around 60,000 Israelis have been forced from their homes, whom the Israeli government has committed to returning.

Last week, Israel massively ramped up its military campaign against Hezbollah, killing hundreds and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians, according to the Lebanese government. 

Mass Walkout as Global Pariah Addresses UNGA

The public rebuke of the Israeli prime minister demonstrates the international community's rejection of genocide in Gaza. A large number of diplomats and other officials walked out of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City on Friday as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared to defend his nation's slaughter of more than 41,000 people in the Gaza Strip during the past year and over 700 in Lebanon this week.

Journalists and critics of the "global pariah" shared photos and videos of people filing out of the hall before Netanyahu's address—which came just a day after 25 anti-genocide protesters were arrested for blocking his motorcade in Manhattan.

While there was some audience applause from the sparsely populated room on Friday, Al Jazeera Arabic's Rami Ayari explained that the people you hear cheering the PM during the speech are in the gallery who he brought for that purpose.

Council on American-Islamic Relations national executive director Nihad Awad said in a statement that as the far-right, openly racist Israeli government continues its genocide in Gaza and expands its campaign of state terrorism to civilians in Lebanon, this mass walkout during war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu's UN speech demonstrates the international community's rejection of genocide.

Awad added that US President Joe Biden should take note of our government's growing isolation on the international stage, change his policy, and support human rights and international law, without an exception for the Palestinian people.

Since Israeli forces launched their assault on Gaza in retaliation for the Hamas-led October 07 attack, the United States government has stood by Israel, sending billions of dollars in weapons and opposing UN resolutions, while claiming to be pushing for a cease-fire.

Addressing the General Assembly earlier this week, Biden called for "security for Israel, and Gaza free of Hamas' grip."

In response to diplomats' Friday walkout, Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft said, "The impunity Biden has offered Israel has been used by Netanyahu to make Israel an international pariah. Neither good for the US nor for Israel."

Parsi also highlighted a clip of Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob's speech to the UN, in which he urged Netanyahu to "stop this war now!"

Netanyahu began his Friday address by taking aim at the world leaders who throughout the week have condemned the recent escalation against Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as the past year of Israeli forces bombing and starving Palestinians in Gaza.

"I didn't intend to come here this year. My country is at war fighting for its life," Netanyahu said. "But, after I heard the lies and slanders leveled at my country by many of the speakers standing at this podium, I decided to come here and set the record straight."

Armed with more of his infamous maps of the Middle East, the right-wing leader went on to claim that "Israel seeks peace," while also pledging to wage war on Hamas-governed Gaza until "total victory" and telling "the tyrants of Tehran" that "if you strike us, we will strike you."

Noting that Netanyahu also spoke of "savage enemies who seek to destroy our common civilization," James Zogby, co-founder and president of the Arab American Institute said, "Words spoken by the man who has been charged with genocide and crimes against humanity. This is a disgrace. Abusing the General Assembly platform to lie and incite.

Israel faces a South Africa-led genocide case at the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court prosecutor has sought arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and three Hamas leaders—one of whom Israel recently assassinated in Iran. Israel also claims to have killed a second Hamas leader, which the group has denied.

Courtesy: Common Dreams

 

Europe’s answer to the Suez Canal

Work is finally underway on France’s Seine-Nord Europe Canal (SNEC), a major new European trading route that promises to boost the bloc’s economic fortunes.

When it is completed in 2030, the massive 107km infrastructure project will significantly increase the capacity for cheaper, faster and less polluting river trade between France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

As it stands, the smooth flow of commerce between the three nations is being frustrated by the limited capacity of the narrower Canal du Nord.

The antiquated river system struggles to cope with the new generation of super-sized cargo ships powering international trade.

Shipping mishaps and the sheer weight of traffic attempting to navigate a path through the canal create frustrating bottlenecks, costing European businesses valuable time and money.

Despite the urgent need for a new trading route and the canal project securing the green light in 2003, decades of political wrangling and disagreements around funding and the canal’s final route stalled progress, until now.

The SNEC is a €5.1 billion investment by the French government, local authorities, and the EU, in the region’s economic and environmental future.

Analysts suggest the new route could remove as many as a million heavy goods vehicles from France’s roads each year.

The size of the undertaking is staggering, involving as many as sixty bridges, three canal bridges, seven locks, and 700 hectares of environmental plantation.

Nicolas Ledoux, CEO of Arcadis France, which is leading the project said, “The Seine-Nord Europe Canal will not only enable a modal shift from the roadway to the river but will also create added economic, logistical, agricultural, and climatic value for the territories it crosses through.

“We are very proud to help promote river transport, a high-performing, environmentally friendly, and economical mode of transport that responds to the challenge of energy transition.”

The new 54-metre-wide canal will occupy a section of the Seine-Escaut waterway and create Europe’s first river network with the capacity to accommodate large ships.

It will connect the Seine basin to the main waterways of northern France and Europe.

Arcadis France believes the canal’s development will not only boost national economies but also stimulate growth in the local economies of the areas it passes through.

Green jobs will be created as the canal snakes through protected areas and the natural habitats of a range of species, requiring the construction of wildlife corridors and the planting of extensive environmental plantations.

 

PSX daily trading volume declines 17%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week, with the benchmark index losing 782 points or 0.95%WoW to close at 81,292 points on Friday, September 27, 2024.

Anticipation of the IMF’s board approval scheduled for September 25, briefly improved investors’ sentiment on Wednesday. However, the positive sentiments were overshadowed by continuation of foreign selling after rebalancing of FTSE Russell, political noise, and concerns regarding the potential termination of contracts with certain IPPs, inducing selling pressure in power sector heavyweights.

Consequently, power generation and distribution sector contributed the significant decline, eroding 800 points from the index during the week.

The FBR is expected to post a shortfall of PKR275 billion in 1QFY25, according to the news flows. In efforts to increase tax revenue, GoP plans to abolish non-filer status and take strict measures against tax frauds.

Average daily trading volumes declined by 17.1%WoW to 389.35 million shares, as compared to 469.45 million shares traded a week ago.

Foreign exchange reserves by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$24 million to US$9.53 billion as of September 20, 2024.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at 277.64 to US$.

Other major news inflow during the week included: 1) IMF distanced itself from Pakistan's decision to arrange a US$600 million commercial loan at 11% interest rate, 2) US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu praises 'deeper' ties with Shehbaz government, 3) GoP borrowing surged to record high, 4) Farmers to get 251 green tractors and 5) ADB may approve 3rd-party guarantee in case of Reko Diq.

Transport, Fertilizer, Inv. Banks/ INV. Cos/ Securities Cos., Leather & Tanneries and Pharmaceuticals were amongst the top performers, Power generation & Distribution, Leasing companies, Textile spinning, Engineering and Jute were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$12.44 million, mostly absorbed by Mutual Funds with a net buy of US$16.21 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: FFC, GLAXO, AKBL, FFBL, and THALL, while the laggards included: HUBC, PGLC, SML, MARI, and KEL.

Following the approval of the IMF’s executive board and the subsequent receipt of the first tranche of US$1.02 billion, the market sentiments are poised to improve.

Additionally, easing inflation with September 2024 CPI expected at 7.0%YoY, coupled with ongoing monetary easing, is expected to keep equities in focus.

AKD Securities recommends sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yielding stocks, which are expected to rerate as yields align with fixed income returns.

 

Macron calls for a new international order

French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday urged the need for “a new international order” following the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Speaking at the "Meeting for Peace" organized by the Catholic Sant'Egidio community in Paris, he called on European leaders to prepare for a post-war reality that reevaluates the continent's organizational framework.

"We must be imaginative enough to think about the peace of tomorrow, a peace in Europe in a new form," Macron stated, advocating for an inclusive vision that transcends the current structures of the EU and NATO.

He emphasized the importance of a broader approach to cooperation and peace building, particularly concerning the Balkans and Europe’s geographical realities.

Macron criticized existing institutions like the UN, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) for not adequately reflecting the modern world.

"Our order today is incomplete and unjust. Many of the most populated countries did not exist when the seats were distributed," he remarked.

Addressing past criticisms of his approach to Russia, Macron reiterated the necessity of reconciling relations with the nation, albeit within a new organizational framework. He stressed that Europe needs to "rethink" its interactions with Russia in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

In May 2022, shortly after the war began, Macron faced backlash for stating that Russia should not be "humiliated." His recent hesitance to rule out sending French troops to Ukraine has also drawn Western criticism.

Looking ahead, Macron plans to present his concerns at the UN General Assembly, advocating for global reforms to create “fairer” and more inclusive international institutions. “I will come back to this this week at the UN,” he stated, highlighting the urgency of these reforms.

In addition to addressing European security, Macron commented on the escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza. He stressed that peace must be rooted in “coexistence” and the recognition of all individuals' rights to live peacefully.

As the situation in Gaza deteriorates, Israel’s offensive has resulted in over 41,400 deaths, primarily among women and children, and more than 95,800 injuries, according to local health authorities.

The conflict has displaced nearly the entire population of the territory, exacerbated by a blockade leading to severe shortages of essential supplies. Israel faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its actions in Gaza.

Pakistan: OGDC performance in FY24

Pakistan’s leading exploration player, Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) held its analyst briefing where in the management discussed the recently announced FY24 financial results with equity analysts.

Net sales of the company for the year under review rose to PKR463.7 billion, up 12%YoY, mainly due to higher wellhead prices. The average realized prices for crude oil slipped to US$68.7/bbl, down 4.3%YoY, while realized gas prices rose to PKR712.9/mmbtu, up 17%YoY.

Production activity during the year was reported at 33,100 bpd of crude oil (up 2%YoY), 717mmcfd of gas (down 6.1%YoY) and 717tpd of LPG (down 0.4%YoY), respectively.

Forced curtailments by SNGP and reduced intake by power companies led to fall in oil and gas output during the year.

Production was notably impacted in aging fields including Nashpa, Chanda, Dhok Hussain, and Uch, with output declining by 138,500 barrels of oil and 19,600 mmcf of gas, respectively.

Company operated in 54 Exploration Blocks (22 blocks with full ownership and 32 blocks as operated JVs), covering an area of 99.3k sq. km as at June end 2024.

On the drilling front, company spud 13 wells, with seven being exploratory and six developmental. This resulted in five discoveries during the year: Chak 214-1, Dars West-2, Kharo-01, Togh-2 and Nur West-1 (tight gas well), with combined daily production of 481 bpd of oil and 28mmcfd of gas, respectively.

With regards to 2D/3D seismic activities, company conducted 1,236/1,201 sq. kms of surveys during FY24.

Jhal Magsi development project has received approval for marginal gas pricing by the ECC. Significant construction milestones have been achieved, with commissioning expected during the current month.

Uch (requirement under GSA with UPL) and KPD-TAY (+100mmcfd) compression projects are presently in the detailed engineering phase, with completion expected by March 2026.

Opex were up 32%YoY during the year, with the primary reason being the lease expiry of three major fields. This led to additional payments to the GoP in form of an incremental charge of 15% of wellhead value.

Company's contract expenses were notably higher during the period, driven by various production optimization studies conducted across multiple fields.

Additionally, operations in sensitive areas resulted in increased security expenses as well.

Company also recognized PKR23 billion in impairment charges related to interest receivables from GoP’s TFCs.

Regarding the expected production profile and reserve size of the Abu Dhabi Block, management noted that the block is still in the appraisal stages. Regarding company's share in production, management stated that discussions with ‘ADNOC' are ongoing.

AKD Securities maintains its 'BUY' stance on the stock with a June 2025 target price of PKR180/ share, alongside a DY of 10% for FY25.

  

 

Remembering the day Saddam invaded Iran

On September 22, 1980, months after the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the army of the Iraqi Ba’athist regime led by Saddam Hussein invaded the Iranian border towns in the southwestern province of Khuzestan and launched a massive aerial bombardment on Iran, igniting an eight-year conflict with Iran.

The Iranians fought back to expel the invaders from their occupied soil. The Saddam regime, which received all-out support from the big powers, imposed the war on Iran that lasted until the summer of 1988.

Since the beginning of the war, Iran demanded that Iraq be officially declared as the initiator of the war. However, neither the Iraqi Ba’athist regime nor any of the major powers were willing to officially declare that the Saddam regime initiated the war against Iran.

The UN Security Council which has the primary responsibility for international peace and security failed to take any action to declare the Saddam regime as the aggressor and initiator of the war.

The Ba’athist regime committed crimes against the Iranian nation, using chemical weapons, firing missiles at civilian targets, bombarding cities and villages during the war, and other vicious acts.

Influenced by big powers, who armed the Saddam regime to the teeth, the Security Council refused to adopt an impartial stance in that regard during the eight years of war.

When Saddam tore up the 1975 Algiers Agreement in front of cameras and then started the war, the Security Council refused to say who started the war and which side violated the principle of non-invasion.

The Iraqi Ba’athist regime used to refer to border skirmishes that preceded the invasion as its pretext for starting the war. The regime claimed that it took action after a long history of border disputes.

The reality was that Saddam couldn't wait to tear up the Algiers agreement amid political instability and fast pace of developments in the post-revolution Iran. He might also have been pushed by hostile Western states that were angered by the victory of the Islamic Revolution.

Instead of the UN Security Council, it was UN Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar who declared Iraq as the aggressor and the initiator of the war in his report to the UN body in December 1991.

This action of the UN Secretary General to officially declare Iraq the initiator of war endorsed Iran’s right to self-defense.

The UN report naturally required Iraq to pay compensation to Iran, which was estimated at about one trillion dollars.

This action of the United Nations took place after the continuous political efforts of the Iranian authorities. It is considered a great victory for Iran because it proved Iran's right to self-defense against the aggressor.

This action took place while the propaganda apparatus of the Saddam regime and its backers were trying to manipulate public opinion in the world that Iran was the initiator of the war.

At the start of the war, Saddam was Iraq's undisputed political and military ruler and Iraq's national interests were his personal interests.

There had been border disputes and skirmishes before the start of the invasion which Saddam's regime sought to present as a pretext for attacking Iran. Saddam must have thought that amid instability and nascent revolution, it was the right time to materialize his malicious goal of seizing part of the Iranian territory.

The Iraqi dictator’s likely goal was to annex some parts of the oil-rich Khuzestan, which has a sizeable ethnic Arab population.

Border skirmishes preceded the invasion. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein claimed that Iran's Islamic government was trying to destabilize his country and the whole Middle East. But the then UN chief rejected that argument.

In a letter to the UN Security Council, Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar in December 1991 Iran blamed Iraq for starting the war.

He rejected the Iraqi regime’s argument that border skirmishes pushed Iraq to invade Iran.

"Even if before the outbreak of the conflict there had been some encroachment by Iran on Iraqi territory, such encroachment did not justify Iraq's aggression against Iran -- which was followed by Iraq's continuous occupation of Iranian territory during the conflict," Javier Perez de Cuellar said.

Iran has always criticized the double standards of western states in dealing with the Iraqi war on Iran, especially the Security Council and Western powers were quick to take action against the regime after it invaded Kuwait on August 02, 1990.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

Israel getting desperate to attack Iran

Since October 07, 2023 Israeli citizens have been holding their collective breath, knowing that the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and incessant fire exchanges on the northern border could escalate into a full-scale regional war at any moment.

The mysterious attack in Lebanon on Tuesday, in which thousands of pagers in the use of Hezbollah operatives exploded, apparently killing at least 11 and wounding thousands more, has made that possibility more likely than ever.

A war with the Iranian-backed militia to Israel’s north could quickly expand into war with Iran, which has yet to avenge the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July, despite Islamic Republic leaders vowing a response.

Israel, in turn, stated it would exact a heavy price from the Iranian regime were it to carry out a significant attack against the Jewish state.

Maj-Gen. (res.) Itzhak Brik is adamant that war with Iran now would lead to Israel’s destruction.

Security expert Yair Ansbacher is convinced that war with Iran at this point is a must – to avoid Israel’s destruction.

This is the fork in the road that Israel faces today, 11 months after Hamas initiated the horrific October 07 attack, in which 1,200 Israelis and other nationals were murdered and 250 more were taken hostage.

Additional factors such as the apparent exhaustion of negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire agreement, and the Israeli government’s decision earlier in the week to make the return of displaced northern residents an official war goal, have increased the likelihood of a regional war.

Speaking to The Jerusalem Post on the phone earlier in the week, Brik warned that Israel is not prepared for a multi-front war.

“Iran and its proxies have 250,000 missiles, rockets, and drones encircling Israel. Which means about 4,000 munitions hitting the Israeli home front on a daily basis, population centers, Haifa Bay, water and electricity facilities, gas fields [in the Mediterranean Sea], IDF bases, and strategic civilian infrastructure. A regional war can ruin the State of Israel,” he stressed.

Brik further warned that Israel would enter this all-out war alone, without the aid of the United States.

“Iran is backed by Russia, China, and North Korea, who don’t want to lose their [Iranian] asset,” he said, explaining that the US will avoid getting involved in a war that could develop into a world war.

What Israel should do, he advised, is build a strategic alliance with Western and moderate Arab nations that will form a “deterrence balance” against Iran and its partners. Trying to thwart the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capacity is futile, he added, which “is a development that can’t be stopped.”

Ansbacher views the situation differently. He is certain that now is the right time to strike Iran, before it makes its final nuclear breakthrough.

“If today the West has little success in taming the ayatollahs, it will have zero success when they obtain nuclear weapons,” he said via Zoom with the Post last week.

“Iran will provide a nuclear umbrella to terrorists across the globe. Imagine Hezbollah kidnaps [IDF] soldiers on [Israel’s] northern border, and before Israel launches a rescue operation, Hezbollah sends a message that this could result in a nonconventional missile attack. This is a scenario that we cannot accept,” Ansbacher stipulated.

In addition, the possibility of a hostile US administration come the November election, along with the inferior position Iran found itself in after the October 07 attack – exposing its plan to annihilate Israel – means that Jerusalem must now use this narrow opportunity to strike Iran, he noted.

“Tehran’s original plan was to attack Israel simultaneously [on all fronts], and that would have brought us to the brink of extinction. But their plan was disrupted when [Hamas head] Yahya Sinwar jumped the gun. This puts Iran in a weakened position. If the plan had fully worked, Israel would have been caught unawares, with all arms of the octopus around its neck. Then it’s checkmate. But the plan’s disadvantage was its extended period of implementation where many things could go wrong,” Ansbacher said.

Attacking Iran now is Israel’s last chance before it faces an existential threat of a nuclear Islamic Republic, he stressed. If Israel hits Iran in its two centers of power, Tehran and Qom, he added, the Iranian regime, largely unsupported by the nonreligious population, will very likely fall.

Who will be the next prime minister of Japan?

With nine candidates, Japan's ruling party holds its most crowded leadership race ever on September 27, 2024. Among those running for Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president are two women. Many of the candidates have served as defense and foreign ministers as well as in other senior government and party positions. The winner will be rubber-stamped as Japanese prime minister when parliament reconvenes in early October.

A million local LDP supporters, representing less than 1% of the Japanese population, will have the same say as the LDP's 368 party legislators in the initial round of voting. But as no candidate is expected to secure a majority at that stage, the vote of the legislators will then gain much more weight in a runoff between the two frontrunners.

While the LDP sees the leadership race as a way to choose the face of the party ahead of an expected general election in coming weeks, other parties are not just standing by. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party has scheduled its own leadership election on September 23. In addition, LDP coalition partner Komeito recently changed its leader for the first time in 15 years.

Five of the LDP's six intraparty factions, which played an influential role in previous presidential elections, have decided to dissolve in the wake of a political funding scandal that came to light late last year. With factional control thus weakened, it has become easier for candidates to enter the leadership contest. The winner will succeed Fumio Kishida and be appointed Japan's 102nd prime minister at the Diet, where the party holds the most seats in both the upper and lower houses.

The result of the vote could bring a generational change. At 43, former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi is a prominent candidate. As well as being the son of Junichiro Koizumi, one of Japan's best-known prime ministers internationally, Koizumi would become the country's youngest prime minister since the 19th century.

Japan could also have its first woman prime minister, with two female members of Kishida's cabinet standing, including Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba is making fifth try for the top job, receives a lot of backing from local LDP supporters. 

Former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba ranked the best choice to lead the party, overtaking Shinjiro Koizumi in a recent opinion poll conducted after the nine candidates were confirmed. Hawkish Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, who sees herself as an heir to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, ranked third among all survey respondents.

Sanae Takaichi is the most popular choice among stock market pros to become Japan's next leader, according to a monthly survey. Takaichi led the poll with 29% of responses, as market participants were hopeful the lawmaker would pursue economic policies similar to "Abenomics" -- those of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. 

Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba proposed US military bases in Okinawa prefecture be managed jointly with Japanese forces, saying so in a public forum among all candidates. The security discussion comes as China ramps up military pressure on Taiwan and expands its maritime presence in the East and South China seas.

 Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sri Lankan go to crucial poll today

Sri Lankans are going to the polls to elect a president today (Saturday), at a time when the country is struggling to emerge from the worst economic crisis it has faced since gaining independence in 1948.

Sri Lankans have suffered a turbulent few years. Fed up with severe shortages of essentials such as food and medicines, and lengthy power cuts, they took to the streets for months in 2022. Those protests culminated in the storming of the presidential palace in July that year, forcing former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.

United National Party's Ranil Wickremesinghe assumed the presidency then and is standing as an independent now. He faces three other main competitors -- National People's Power (NPP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Samagi Jana Balawegaya's (SJB) Sajith Premadasa and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna's Namal Rajapaksa, scion of the powerful family that had dominated the nation's politics for over two decades.

Here are four things to know about the election:

What is the key issue on voters' minds?

Top of voters' concerns is economic stability and growth. The 17.1 million registered voters want to know how to improve their financial health and the plans the next government has to target the corruption they blame for their misery. Although shortages have eased, Sri Lankans still face high costs of living and a squeeze on public spending as the Wickremesinghe administration restructures the country's debt to meet conditions laid out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout. Sri Lankans largely blame the Rajapaksas for the state of the economy. The Supreme Court ruled late last year that Gotabaya and Mahinda Rajapaksa were among 13 former leaders guilty of economic mismanagement that led to the crisis.

Who are the main candidates?

A total of 38 candidates have entered the race, although there are only four main contenders. Antiestablishment opposition parliamentarian Dissanayake, leader of NPP, an alliance of left-leaning groups, has captured the imagination of many voters.

Competing with him is another parliamentary opposition leader, Premadasa, leader of SJB, a center-left alliance.

The main candidates have assured voters they will not tear up the IMF's economic recovery blueprint, but voters are wary of the austerity measures required for Sri Lanka's US$3 billion bailout. As such, many are leaning toward positions offered by Dissanayake and Premadasa to tweak the IMF's benchmarks to provide economic relief to impoverished millions.

Premadasa told The Associated Press that his party was already in discussions with the IMF to ease the tax burden on the poor.

Trailing them are two candidates who are considered pillars of the status quo and seemingly out of step with the public: the incumbent Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa, nephew of Gotabaya and son of another former president, Mahinda.

Some, however, credit Wickremesinghe for stabilizing and even growing the economy. Sri Lanka reported on September 13 that its economy expanded 4.7% year-on-year in the April quarter.

Saturday's election will also bring Sri Lanka's strategic location into sharp focus, as Asian rivals India and China have stakes in the outcome.

A victory for Dissanayake, whose main constituent party has Marxist and revolutionary roots, is expected to pave the way for Beijing to regain some of the foothold it has lost to New Delhi during the Wickremesinghe presidency.

India, according to Colombo-based diplomatic sources, prefers a Premadasa presidency.

How will the winner be decided?

Voter turnout for presidential elections typically hovers in the healthy 70% range, sometimes higher. Traditionally, voters choose one of two main candidates. The candidate with the majority of votes -- 50% plus one vote -- will be named president. This time, though, there are four main competitors, meaning a scenario could arise in which no one candidate reaches the majority threshold. As such, voters are asked in this election to mark the numbers 1, 2 and 3 against their top three choices. In the event no one wins a majority, the election will go to a second round, which only involves an additional count. The two candidates with the most votes in the first round will be pitted against each other. Ballots that had either one of them as their second or/and third choices will be added to their tallies. The one with the highest total will win the election. There is no time limit for the second round.

Why is there anxiety about the transition of power?

Concerns about a smooth transition of power have once again emerged, as they did after previous polls. Sri Lankans are worried that any period of political uncertainty after a potential second round could leave room for exploitation by political opportunists within the incumbent government.

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

 

 

 

PSX benchmark index up 3.5%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its positive momentum, buoyed by last week’s key catalysts of interest rate cut and Pakistan’s inclusion on the IMF executive board agenda. Consequently, the benchmark index reached an all-time high, closing at 82,074 points with a weekly gain of 2,741 points, up 3.5%WoW.

Overall, the bullish sentiment was predominantly driven by high-dividend-yielding sectors including Banks, E&P, and Fertilizers, as falling fixed-income yields led to a rerating of these sectors.

Current account balance for August 2024 posted a surplus of US$75 million, largely underpinned by a 40%YoY increase in remittances. Additionally, exports also remained higher during the month, with growth largely supported by an annual increase of 13% in Textile and 40% in Food exports.

Subsequently, LSMI activity also rose by 2.4%YoY in July 2924, with Textiles and Food driving output expansion.

The GoP reduced POL prices for the fourth consecutive time, lowering these by over PKR80/liter compared to same period last year. This consistent decline in POL prices is expected to further alleviate inflationary pressures.

The rejection of all bids in recent T-Bills auction and the less-than-target acceptance in the PIB auction, along with declining yields, would potentially shift liquidity toward equities.

On the international front, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates after four years by 50bps.

Market participation declined by 22.6%WoW, with the average daily traded volume dropping to 469 million shares from 607 million shares in the earlier week.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback, closing the week at 277.8/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) ADB assures Pakistan US$2 billion annually in loans, 2) FDI rises to US$350 million in first two months of the current financial year, 3) Power demand slumps 17%YoY in August, and 4) In PIBs auction PKR111 billion was raised against PKR200 billion target.

Top performing sectors were Pharmaceuticals, Commercial Banks, and Fertilizer, while Woollen, Cable & Electrical Goods, and Engineering were amongst the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$23.2 million. Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$15.5 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: MARI, SHFA, HBL, MEBL, and MCB, while laggards included: SML, YOUW, WFUG, TGL, and PIBTL.

IMF Executive Board’s approval, along with continued monetary easing would keep equities in focus, with the market trading at an attractive P/E of 3.7x and a DY of 13.2%. The completion of the FTSE rebalancing would further boost investor confidence.

AKD Securities recommends sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yielding stocks, which are expected to relate as yields align with fixed-income returns.

Israel claims destroying over 1000 ready-to-launch rockets in Southern Lebanon

IDF fighter jets struck hundreds of rockets that were ready for immediate launch into Israeli territory, the IDF announced on Thursday night.

Starting on Thursday afternoon, a total of about 100 rocket launchers and other military infrastructure were attacked, including about 1,000 rockets that were ready for immediate launch, the IDF said. 

Three Lebanese security officials told Reuters that these were "the heaviest aerial strikes since the conflict began in October last year."

According to reports in Lebanese media, cited in Israeli media, the number of attacks ranged from about fifty to seventy throughout Lebanon in only about twenty minutes. 

These strikes come only days after the far-reaching Hezbollah communications explosion, spanning two days, wounding thousands and killing at least 30 people.

Hezbollah threatened to respond, with leader Hassan Nasrallah live streaming a speech on Thursday in which he goaded Israel, daring it to attack.

"We are waiting for you to enter Lebanese territory. We are waiting for your tanks and will see this as a historic opportunity.”

Nasrallah's speech was dripping with symbolism with references to Surah Al-Hajj, verse 39, which permits Muslims to fight defensive wars, to the red background symbolizing revenge.

These strikes, in combination with the explosions, are only the latest series of defeats that pose serious questions for the organization.

Fuad Shukr, one of the most senior Hezbollah commanders, was assassinated in July, for which Hezbollah threatened vengeance.

Hezbollah's planned retaliation at the end of August was thwarted by an IDF preemptive strike involving more than 100 strikes across the south of the country.

 

Israeli Cyber Attacks Cripple Hezbollah

In unprecedented covert operations, Israel triggered explosions on thousands of pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters and followers in back-to-back attacks on September 17 and 18, 2024.

Both attacks targeted Hezbollah in at least three strongholds—Beirut, the eastern Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Some pagers also detonated in neighboring Syria. In a speech on September 19, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that "retribution will come."

The escalation was the single largest blow to the Lebanese militia, which is Iran’s most important ally in the Middle East. It also signaled Israel’s growing shift from the Gaza war in the south to the tense 49–mile northern front with Hezbollah—and potentially a turning point for war in the wider Middle East.

Shortly before the pagers exploded on September 17, Israel announced that the Security Cabinet had decided to expand its military focus.

“The center of gravity is shifting northward, meaning that we are increasingly diverting forces, resources, and energy towards the North,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 18.

Military strikes along the northern border have intensified since the outbreak of the Gaza War on October 07, 2023, as Hezbollah fired rockets almost daily on northern Israel.

Some 70,000 fled Israeli towns, farms and kibbutzim with long-term impact on the economy, schooling, and security. Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon have led some 112,000 residents to flee villages, town and farms.

The Israel operations seriously degraded Hezbollah’s ability to communicate with its fighters as Israel mobilized forces closer to the northern border. The pager attacks:

·         Injured almost 3,000 Lebanese

·         Killed at least 12, including two children

·         Injured Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, who reportedly lost one eye and injured the other

·         Overwhelmed Lebanese hospitals

Arab news outlets reported that the explosives were pre-planted in the AR-924 pagers, which were produced in Hungary on a license from Gold Apollo, a Taiwanese company. Hezbollah pledged retaliation for the “sinful assault, both in ways that are expected and unexpected.”

The walkie-talkie attack the next day was smaller in scale but a further humiliating blow to Hezbollah and, potentially, its military capabilities. The walkie-talkie operation:

·         Injured at least 608

·         Killed at least 25

·         Sparked fires in Beirut’s southern suburbs as well as the Bekaa Valley

·         Added to stress on Lebanese health facilities

The United States and the European Union expressed alarm about the operations. In Cairo, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned all parties against actions that would intensify regional hostilities.

“We remain very clear about the importance of all parties avoiding any steps that could further escalate the conflict that we’re trying to resolve in Gaza to see it spread to other fronts.  It’s clearly not in the interest of anyone involved to see that happen,” he said at a joint press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. “It’s imperative that all parties refrain from any actions that could escalate the conflict.”

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell condemned the operations for endangering Lebanon’s stability and increasing the risk of regional escalation. 

“Even if the attacks seem to have been targeted, they had heavy, indiscriminate collateral damages among civilians, including children among the victims,” he said in a statement after meeting with the Lebanese foreign minister on Sept. 18, 2024. “I consider this situation extremely worrying.”

In contrast, President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the use of pagers as tools for “assassination and annihilation.” The attack “once again showed that western nations and Americans fully support crime, killings, and blind assassinations by the Zionist regime,” he said in a cabinet meeting on September 18, according to the presidential website.

Israel has pledged to continue military operations against Hezbollah, the most experienced and well-armed non-state actor in the world, until it withdraws from the border and ends rocket and missile strikes.

Hezbollah, in turn, has vowed not to stop until the Gaza war ends. Between October 2023 and mid-September 2024:

·         Hezbollah launched more than 8,000 rockets and more than 450 drones at Israel.

·         Israel carried out more than 7,000 strikes in Lebanon.             

Both sides have suffered deaths and casualties. At least 25 Israeli civilians and 21 soldiers have been killed in Hezbollah attacks.

Israel had already been linked to the deaths of at least 48 senior Hezbollah commanders and more than 430 operatives between October 08, 2023 and September 17, 2024.

Israel killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s most senior commander and a close advisor to Nasrallah, on July 30. At least 137 civilians in Lebanon have reportedly been killed in Israeli strikes.

 

Courtesy: United States Institute of Peace

UN General Assembly demands Israel ends occupation of Palestinian territories

The UN General Assembly has adopted a Palestinian-drafted, non-binding resolution demanding Israel end "its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory" within 12 months.

There were 124 votes in favor and 14 against, including Israel, along with 43 abstentions. As a non-member observer state, Palestine could not vote.

The resolution is based on a July advisory opinion from the UN's highest court that said Israel was occupying the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip against international law.

The Palestinian ambassador called the vote a turning point “in our struggle for freedom and justice”. But his Israeli counterpart denounced it as “diplomatic terrorism”.

Although the General Assembly’s resolutions are not binding, they carry symbolic and political weight given they reflect the positions of all 193 member states of the UN.

It comes after almost a year of war in Gaza, which began when Hamas gunmen attacked Israel on October 07, 2024, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 others as hostages.

More than 41,110 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

There has also been a spike in violence in the West Bank over the same period, in which the UN says more than 680 Palestinians and 22 Israelis have been killed.

The advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - which was also not legally binding - said a 15-judge panel had found that "Israel's continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is unlawful” and that the country was “under an obligation to bring to an end its unlawful presence... as rapidly as possible”.

The court also said Israel should “evacuate all settlers from the Occupied Palestinian Territory” and “make reparation for the damage caused to all the natural or legal persons concerned”.

Israel has built about 160 settlements housing some 700,000 Jews in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since 1967.

The court said the settlements “have been established and are being maintained in violation of international law”, which Israel has consistently disputed.

Israel's prime minister said at the time that the court had made a "decision of lies" and insisted that “the Jewish people are not occupiers in their own land”.

Wednesday’s General Assembly resolution welcomed the ICJ’s declaration. It demands that Israel “brings to an end without delay its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory... and do so no later than 12 months”, and “comply without delay with all its legal obligations under international law”.

The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority’s foreign ministry described its passing as a “pivotal and historic moment for the Palestinian cause and international law”.

The support of almost two-thirds of UN member states reflected “a global consensus that the occupation must end and its crimes must cease”, and that it “reaffirmed the Palestinian people’s inalienable right to self-determination”.

Israel’s foreign ministry called the resolution “a distorted decision that is disconnected from reality, encourages terrorism and harms the chances for peace”, adding, “This is what cynical international politics looks like.”

It said the resolution “bolsters and strengthens the Hamas terrorist organization” and “sends a message that terrorism pays off and yields international resolutions”.

It also accused the Palestinian Authority of “conducting a campaign whose goal is not to resolve the conflict but to harm Israel” and vowed to respond.

The US, which voted against the resolution, warned beforehand that the text was “one-sided” and “selectively interprets the substance of the ICJ’s opinion”.

“There is no path forward or hope offered through this resolution today. Its adoption will not save Palestinian lives, bring the hostages home, end Israeli settlements, or reinvigorate the peace process,” Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said.

The UK’s ambassador, Barbara Woodward, explained that it had abstained “not because we do not support the central findings of the ICJ's advisory opinion, but rather because the resolution does not provide sufficient clarity to effectively advance our shared aim of a peace premised on a negotiated two-state solution”.