Sri Lankan go to crucial poll today

Sri Lankans are going to the polls to elect a president today (Saturday), at a time when the country is struggling to emerge from the worst economic crisis it has faced since gaining independence in 1948.

Sri Lankans have suffered a turbulent few years. Fed up with severe shortages of essentials such as food and medicines, and lengthy power cuts, they took to the streets for months in 2022. Those protests culminated in the storming of the presidential palace in July that year, forcing former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.

United National Party's Ranil Wickremesinghe assumed the presidency then and is standing as an independent now. He faces three other main competitors -- National People's Power (NPP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Samagi Jana Balawegaya's (SJB) Sajith Premadasa and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna's Namal Rajapaksa, scion of the powerful family that had dominated the nation's politics for over two decades.

Here are four things to know about the election:

What is the key issue on voters' minds?

Top of voters' concerns is economic stability and growth. The 17.1 million registered voters want to know how to improve their financial health and the plans the next government has to target the corruption they blame for their misery. Although shortages have eased, Sri Lankans still face high costs of living and a squeeze on public spending as the Wickremesinghe administration restructures the country's debt to meet conditions laid out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout. Sri Lankans largely blame the Rajapaksas for the state of the economy. The Supreme Court ruled late last year that Gotabaya and Mahinda Rajapaksa were among 13 former leaders guilty of economic mismanagement that led to the crisis.

Who are the main candidates?

A total of 38 candidates have entered the race, although there are only four main contenders. Antiestablishment opposition parliamentarian Dissanayake, leader of NPP, an alliance of left-leaning groups, has captured the imagination of many voters.

Competing with him is another parliamentary opposition leader, Premadasa, leader of SJB, a center-left alliance.

The main candidates have assured voters they will not tear up the IMF's economic recovery blueprint, but voters are wary of the austerity measures required for Sri Lanka's US$3 billion bailout. As such, many are leaning toward positions offered by Dissanayake and Premadasa to tweak the IMF's benchmarks to provide economic relief to impoverished millions.

Premadasa told The Associated Press that his party was already in discussions with the IMF to ease the tax burden on the poor.

Trailing them are two candidates who are considered pillars of the status quo and seemingly out of step with the public: the incumbent Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa, nephew of Gotabaya and son of another former president, Mahinda.

Some, however, credit Wickremesinghe for stabilizing and even growing the economy. Sri Lanka reported on September 13 that its economy expanded 4.7% year-on-year in the April quarter.

Saturday's election will also bring Sri Lanka's strategic location into sharp focus, as Asian rivals India and China have stakes in the outcome.

A victory for Dissanayake, whose main constituent party has Marxist and revolutionary roots, is expected to pave the way for Beijing to regain some of the foothold it has lost to New Delhi during the Wickremesinghe presidency.

India, according to Colombo-based diplomatic sources, prefers a Premadasa presidency.

How will the winner be decided?

Voter turnout for presidential elections typically hovers in the healthy 70% range, sometimes higher. Traditionally, voters choose one of two main candidates. The candidate with the majority of votes -- 50% plus one vote -- will be named president. This time, though, there are four main competitors, meaning a scenario could arise in which no one candidate reaches the majority threshold. As such, voters are asked in this election to mark the numbers 1, 2 and 3 against their top three choices. In the event no one wins a majority, the election will go to a second round, which only involves an additional count. The two candidates with the most votes in the first round will be pitted against each other. Ballots that had either one of them as their second or/and third choices will be added to their tallies. The one with the highest total will win the election. There is no time limit for the second round.

Why is there anxiety about the transition of power?

Concerns about a smooth transition of power have once again emerged, as they did after previous polls. Sri Lankans are worried that any period of political uncertainty after a potential second round could leave room for exploitation by political opportunists within the incumbent government.

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

 

 

 

PSX benchmark index up 3.5%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its positive momentum, buoyed by last week’s key catalysts of interest rate cut and Pakistan’s inclusion on the IMF executive board agenda. Consequently, the benchmark index reached an all-time high, closing at 82,074 points with a weekly gain of 2,741 points, up 3.5%WoW.

Overall, the bullish sentiment was predominantly driven by high-dividend-yielding sectors including Banks, E&P, and Fertilizers, as falling fixed-income yields led to a rerating of these sectors.

Current account balance for August 2024 posted a surplus of US$75 million, largely underpinned by a 40%YoY increase in remittances. Additionally, exports also remained higher during the month, with growth largely supported by an annual increase of 13% in Textile and 40% in Food exports.

Subsequently, LSMI activity also rose by 2.4%YoY in July 2924, with Textiles and Food driving output expansion.

The GoP reduced POL prices for the fourth consecutive time, lowering these by over PKR80/liter compared to same period last year. This consistent decline in POL prices is expected to further alleviate inflationary pressures.

The rejection of all bids in recent T-Bills auction and the less-than-target acceptance in the PIB auction, along with declining yields, would potentially shift liquidity toward equities.

On the international front, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates after four years by 50bps.

Market participation declined by 22.6%WoW, with the average daily traded volume dropping to 469 million shares from 607 million shares in the earlier week.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback, closing the week at 277.8/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) ADB assures Pakistan US$2 billion annually in loans, 2) FDI rises to US$350 million in first two months of the current financial year, 3) Power demand slumps 17%YoY in August, and 4) In PIBs auction PKR111 billion was raised against PKR200 billion target.

Top performing sectors were Pharmaceuticals, Commercial Banks, and Fertilizer, while Woollen, Cable & Electrical Goods, and Engineering were amongst the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$23.2 million. Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$15.5 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: MARI, SHFA, HBL, MEBL, and MCB, while laggards included: SML, YOUW, WFUG, TGL, and PIBTL.

IMF Executive Board’s approval, along with continued monetary easing would keep equities in focus, with the market trading at an attractive P/E of 3.7x and a DY of 13.2%. The completion of the FTSE rebalancing would further boost investor confidence.

AKD Securities recommends sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yielding stocks, which are expected to relate as yields align with fixed-income returns.

Israel claims destroying over 1000 ready-to-launch rockets in Southern Lebanon

IDF fighter jets struck hundreds of rockets that were ready for immediate launch into Israeli territory, the IDF announced on Thursday night.

Starting on Thursday afternoon, a total of about 100 rocket launchers and other military infrastructure were attacked, including about 1,000 rockets that were ready for immediate launch, the IDF said. 

Three Lebanese security officials told Reuters that these were "the heaviest aerial strikes since the conflict began in October last year."

According to reports in Lebanese media, cited in Israeli media, the number of attacks ranged from about fifty to seventy throughout Lebanon in only about twenty minutes. 

These strikes come only days after the far-reaching Hezbollah communications explosion, spanning two days, wounding thousands and killing at least 30 people.

Hezbollah threatened to respond, with leader Hassan Nasrallah live streaming a speech on Thursday in which he goaded Israel, daring it to attack.

"We are waiting for you to enter Lebanese territory. We are waiting for your tanks and will see this as a historic opportunity.”

Nasrallah's speech was dripping with symbolism with references to Surah Al-Hajj, verse 39, which permits Muslims to fight defensive wars, to the red background symbolizing revenge.

These strikes, in combination with the explosions, are only the latest series of defeats that pose serious questions for the organization.

Fuad Shukr, one of the most senior Hezbollah commanders, was assassinated in July, for which Hezbollah threatened vengeance.

Hezbollah's planned retaliation at the end of August was thwarted by an IDF preemptive strike involving more than 100 strikes across the south of the country.

 

Israeli Cyber Attacks Cripple Hezbollah

In unprecedented covert operations, Israel triggered explosions on thousands of pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters and followers in back-to-back attacks on September 17 and 18, 2024.

Both attacks targeted Hezbollah in at least three strongholds—Beirut, the eastern Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Some pagers also detonated in neighboring Syria. In a speech on September 19, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that "retribution will come."

The escalation was the single largest blow to the Lebanese militia, which is Iran’s most important ally in the Middle East. It also signaled Israel’s growing shift from the Gaza war in the south to the tense 49–mile northern front with Hezbollah—and potentially a turning point for war in the wider Middle East.

Shortly before the pagers exploded on September 17, Israel announced that the Security Cabinet had decided to expand its military focus.

“The center of gravity is shifting northward, meaning that we are increasingly diverting forces, resources, and energy towards the North,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 18.

Military strikes along the northern border have intensified since the outbreak of the Gaza War on October 07, 2023, as Hezbollah fired rockets almost daily on northern Israel.

Some 70,000 fled Israeli towns, farms and kibbutzim with long-term impact on the economy, schooling, and security. Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon have led some 112,000 residents to flee villages, town and farms.

The Israel operations seriously degraded Hezbollah’s ability to communicate with its fighters as Israel mobilized forces closer to the northern border. The pager attacks:

·         Injured almost 3,000 Lebanese

·         Killed at least 12, including two children

·         Injured Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, who reportedly lost one eye and injured the other

·         Overwhelmed Lebanese hospitals

Arab news outlets reported that the explosives were pre-planted in the AR-924 pagers, which were produced in Hungary on a license from Gold Apollo, a Taiwanese company. Hezbollah pledged retaliation for the “sinful assault, both in ways that are expected and unexpected.”

The walkie-talkie attack the next day was smaller in scale but a further humiliating blow to Hezbollah and, potentially, its military capabilities. The walkie-talkie operation:

·         Injured at least 608

·         Killed at least 25

·         Sparked fires in Beirut’s southern suburbs as well as the Bekaa Valley

·         Added to stress on Lebanese health facilities

The United States and the European Union expressed alarm about the operations. In Cairo, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned all parties against actions that would intensify regional hostilities.

“We remain very clear about the importance of all parties avoiding any steps that could further escalate the conflict that we’re trying to resolve in Gaza to see it spread to other fronts.  It’s clearly not in the interest of anyone involved to see that happen,” he said at a joint press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. “It’s imperative that all parties refrain from any actions that could escalate the conflict.”

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell condemned the operations for endangering Lebanon’s stability and increasing the risk of regional escalation. 

“Even if the attacks seem to have been targeted, they had heavy, indiscriminate collateral damages among civilians, including children among the victims,” he said in a statement after meeting with the Lebanese foreign minister on Sept. 18, 2024. “I consider this situation extremely worrying.”

In contrast, President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the use of pagers as tools for “assassination and annihilation.” The attack “once again showed that western nations and Americans fully support crime, killings, and blind assassinations by the Zionist regime,” he said in a cabinet meeting on September 18, according to the presidential website.

Israel has pledged to continue military operations against Hezbollah, the most experienced and well-armed non-state actor in the world, until it withdraws from the border and ends rocket and missile strikes.

Hezbollah, in turn, has vowed not to stop until the Gaza war ends. Between October 2023 and mid-September 2024:

·         Hezbollah launched more than 8,000 rockets and more than 450 drones at Israel.

·         Israel carried out more than 7,000 strikes in Lebanon.             

Both sides have suffered deaths and casualties. At least 25 Israeli civilians and 21 soldiers have been killed in Hezbollah attacks.

Israel had already been linked to the deaths of at least 48 senior Hezbollah commanders and more than 430 operatives between October 08, 2023 and September 17, 2024.

Israel killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s most senior commander and a close advisor to Nasrallah, on July 30. At least 137 civilians in Lebanon have reportedly been killed in Israeli strikes.

 

Courtesy: United States Institute of Peace

UN General Assembly demands Israel ends occupation of Palestinian territories

The UN General Assembly has adopted a Palestinian-drafted, non-binding resolution demanding Israel end "its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory" within 12 months.

There were 124 votes in favor and 14 against, including Israel, along with 43 abstentions. As a non-member observer state, Palestine could not vote.

The resolution is based on a July advisory opinion from the UN's highest court that said Israel was occupying the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip against international law.

The Palestinian ambassador called the vote a turning point “in our struggle for freedom and justice”. But his Israeli counterpart denounced it as “diplomatic terrorism”.

Although the General Assembly’s resolutions are not binding, they carry symbolic and political weight given they reflect the positions of all 193 member states of the UN.

It comes after almost a year of war in Gaza, which began when Hamas gunmen attacked Israel on October 07, 2024, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 others as hostages.

More than 41,110 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

There has also been a spike in violence in the West Bank over the same period, in which the UN says more than 680 Palestinians and 22 Israelis have been killed.

The advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - which was also not legally binding - said a 15-judge panel had found that "Israel's continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is unlawful” and that the country was “under an obligation to bring to an end its unlawful presence... as rapidly as possible”.

The court also said Israel should “evacuate all settlers from the Occupied Palestinian Territory” and “make reparation for the damage caused to all the natural or legal persons concerned”.

Israel has built about 160 settlements housing some 700,000 Jews in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since 1967.

The court said the settlements “have been established and are being maintained in violation of international law”, which Israel has consistently disputed.

Israel's prime minister said at the time that the court had made a "decision of lies" and insisted that “the Jewish people are not occupiers in their own land”.

Wednesday’s General Assembly resolution welcomed the ICJ’s declaration. It demands that Israel “brings to an end without delay its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory... and do so no later than 12 months”, and “comply without delay with all its legal obligations under international law”.

The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority’s foreign ministry described its passing as a “pivotal and historic moment for the Palestinian cause and international law”.

The support of almost two-thirds of UN member states reflected “a global consensus that the occupation must end and its crimes must cease”, and that it “reaffirmed the Palestinian people’s inalienable right to self-determination”.

Israel’s foreign ministry called the resolution “a distorted decision that is disconnected from reality, encourages terrorism and harms the chances for peace”, adding, “This is what cynical international politics looks like.”

It said the resolution “bolsters and strengthens the Hamas terrorist organization” and “sends a message that terrorism pays off and yields international resolutions”.

It also accused the Palestinian Authority of “conducting a campaign whose goal is not to resolve the conflict but to harm Israel” and vowed to respond.

The US, which voted against the resolution, warned beforehand that the text was “one-sided” and “selectively interprets the substance of the ICJ’s opinion”.

“There is no path forward or hope offered through this resolution today. Its adoption will not save Palestinian lives, bring the hostages home, end Israeli settlements, or reinvigorate the peace process,” Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said.

The UK’s ambassador, Barbara Woodward, explained that it had abstained “not because we do not support the central findings of the ICJ's advisory opinion, but rather because the resolution does not provide sufficient clarity to effectively advance our shared aim of a peace premised on a negotiated two-state solution”.

Israel claims thwarting Iranian plot to assassinate Netanyahu and others

Iran plotted to assassinate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, the Shin Bet announced on Thursday, reports The Jerusalem Post.

Iranian efforts were particularly intense following the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which most of the world has attributed to Mossad. However, Israel has made sure not to take any credit for it.

In addition, the Islamic Republic, at a somewhat more vague level, explored assassinating former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other top Israeli defense officials.

The plot was to use an Israeli businessman, named by Israeli media as Moti Mqman, 73 years old from Ashkelon, who spent extensive time living in Turkey and had financial dealings with both Turkish and Iranian persons to develop assassination plans in Israel.

To effectuate the plan, in April of this year, Turkish citizens Andrei Farouk Aslan and Guneid Aslan contacted the Israeli businessman to conduct financial transactions, inviting him to the Turkish city of Samandag to meet with two representatives of a rich Iranian named Edi. In May, the meeting was held.

But when he was told that Edi could not leave Iran for Turkey, he agreed to have himself smuggled by car from Turkey into Iran, where he met Edi and a member of the Iranian security establishment named Haj.

The Israeli businessman initially had requested one million dollars before undertaking any activities.

The Israeli businessman later visited Iran a second time in August and received 5,000 Euros as part of the start of his undertaking financial, logistics, and weapons-related actions for accomplishing the plot, including potentially converting a Mossad agent into a double agent.

During the second visit to Iran in August, he was smuggled again into Iran from Turkey, this time in a truck, and met again with Edi, though this time also with multiple other unidentified Iranian security officials. During this meeting, they asked him to assist with the assassination plots.

The Israeli businessman was also requested to take videos of certain Israeli sites for surveillance and intelligence gathering purposes as well as to deliver threats to Israeli citizens who Iran had contacted to carry out missions that were not complying with Iranian directives.

Also, during the second visit to Iran, the Iranians asked the businessman if he would be able to recruit Russians and Americans who could be used to kill Iranian figures opposed to the regime who live in Europe and the US.

The Shin Bet did not provide any indications that the Israeli businessman made any significant progress toward any of the terror activities. Still, it did stress that any involvement with hostile Iranians, let alone in Iranian territory itself, during a time of war, was viewed as a very serious security crime.

Further, the Shin Bet said that Iran appeared to be continuing a hard push for such terror activities, such that uncovering this one plot did not bring an end to the danger.

The businessman was indicted on Thursday.

It was unclear why the Shin Bet published the disclosure on Thursday, two days after it published the attempt by Hezbollah to assassinate former defense minister Moshe Yaalon.

In addition, it was unclear if there was any coordination between Iran and Hezbollah regarding the various plots or a delineation of who would target who.

Questioned about the timing, the Shin Bet initially responded that the cases were published based on when the indictments were being filed and when the relevant courts lifted the gag order relating to them.

The Jerusalem Post noted that the Shin Bet and law enforcement have significant control over the timing of filing indictments and requesting lifting gag orders, and as such the initial answer did not really answer the question. The Post is still waiting for further clarifications.

Questioned about whether Turkish authorities are cooperating with Israel against its citizens involved in the plot - which it has sometimes in the past - the Shin Bet had not yet responded.

Issues of cooperation between Israel and Turkish authorities are extremely sensitive, though Ankara has publicized some such cooperation in the past when Iran tried to kill Jews inside Turkey, and the Mossad helped Turkish authorities thwart the plot.

 

 

United States: Fed cuts interest rates

The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, signaling the central bank’s confidence that its war against inflation is coming to an end. How far and how fast the Fed cuts rates moving forward remains to be seen.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers earlier this year that the era of near-zero interest rates is likely over, the central bank projected in June that the median interest rate would drop to 4.1% in 2025 and 3.1%in 2026.

The Fed further lowered its median rate forecast Wednesday to 3.4% next year and 2.9% in 2026, as well as in the long run, according to new economic projections.

“This would only be the first cut of a rate-cutting cycle. The size and frequency of future cuts will give us a better understanding of whether the Fed believes they are behind, or ahead of, ‘the curve,’” said Jonathan Ernest, an economics professor at Case Western Reserve University.

The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3% in July and clocked at 4.2% last month. That’s relatively low by historical standards but still a sign of labor market “cooling” the Fed had been watching for as it waited to cut rates.

While some economists believe the Fed could have started cutting rates in July, the next few months are critical as the central bank attempts to bring the economy in for a “soft landing,” maintaining its dual mandate of low inflation and maximum employment as it brings down rates.

 

Recognition of Palestine State

Members of the Ministerial Committee assigned by the Joint Arab-Islamic Extraordinary Summit on developments in the Gaza Strip held a coordination meeting in Amman on Wednesday. The meeting was chaired by Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi minister of foreign affairs and head of the committee.

The ministerial meeting was aimed to coordinate joint Arab and Islamic efforts during the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, which will be held in New York this month.

The meeting addressed several key topics, including efforts to stop Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, the dangerous escalation in the occupied West Bank, the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe, and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid to all affected areas.

The ministers discussed ways to strengthen Arab and Islamic efforts during the General Assembly to support the recognition of the Palestinian state, ensure the fulfillment of the rights of the Palestinian people, and encourage security and peace in the region and the world. 

The meeting discussed joint efforts to take the necessary steps to implement the two-state solution by establishing a Palestinian state based on the June 04, 1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative and relevant international initiatives.

The meeting was attended by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates of Jordan Ayman Safadi; Prime Minister of Palestine and Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Mohammad Mustafa; Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain Dr. Abdullatif Al-Zayani; Minister of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye Hakan Fidan; Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Qatar Sultan bin Saad Al Muraikhi; Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Immigration of Egypt Ambassador Nabil Habash; Secretary General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Hissein Brahim Taha.

Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to Jordan Naif Al-Sudairi, Director General of the Office of Saudi Foreign Minister, Abdulrahman AlDawood, and the Counsellor at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dr. Manal Radwan also attended the meeting.

Israel accused for pager explosions

Several news outlets confirmed late Tuesday what was widely suspected, Israel's military and intelligence services were behind the explosions of pagers recently purchased by the Lebanese political party and militant group Hezbollah.

The explosions, reportedly set off earlier Tuesday by a message that appeared as if it was from Hezbollah's leadership, killed at least 11 people—including an 8-year-old girl—and wounded thousands more.

Citing both an unnamed former Israeli official with knowledge of the operation and an anonymous U.S. official, Axios reported that Israeli intelligence services planned to use the booby-trapped pagers it managed to 'plant' in Hezbollah's ranks as a surprise opening blow in an all-out war to try to cripple Hezbollah."

"But in recent days, Israeli leaders became concerned that Hezbollah might discover the pagers," the outlet continued. "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his top ministers, and the heads of the Israel Defense Forces and the intelligence agencies decided to use the system now rather than take the risk of it being detected by Hezbollah”, a US official said.

A spokesperson for the US State Department publicly denied that the Biden administration was involved in the attack or aware of the operation in advance.

Heidi Matthews, an associate professor at the Osgoode Hall Law School of York University, wrote Tuesday that each explosion constitutes an indiscriminate attack, pointing to video footage of a pager detonating in a crowded market.

"Under these circumstances," Matthews added, "this is an act of terror."

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Hezbollah ordered thousands of pagers from the Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo, but the company denied making the devices.

According to the Times, which cited unnamed officials, Israeli operatives tampered with the devices they reached Lebanon, planting in them as little as one to two ounces of explosive material and a switch that could be triggered remotely to detonate the explosives.

Heightening fears of a broader conflict, Hezbollah pledged Tuesday to retaliate against Israel over the attack, which reportedly injured Iran's ambassador to Lebanon as well as Hezbollah fighters and medics.

The Guardian's Andrew Roth noted Tuesday that just a day before the coordinated sabotage, Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden, was in Israel urging Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials against an escalation in Lebanon.

Netanyahu has repeatedly sabotaged cease-fire negotiations with hardline demands in recent weeks as the Israeli military—heavily armed by the US—continues to assail the Gaza Strip.

"While US officials have said that the basis for peace along Israel's northern boundary with Lebanon would come through a cease-fire in Gaza, that agreement has proven elusive and appears no closer to fruition," Roth wrote Tuesday.

 "The White House had hoped that a period of quiet around Israel would allow for cease-fire negotiators to achieve a breakthrough, as intermediaries shuttle between Hamas and Israel to thread the needle of both sides' complex demands regarding a hostage exchange and territorial claims."

"That period of quiet has now been shattered with a breathtaking act of subterfuge and Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate," Roth added.

 

Hezbollah members injured in mysterious explosions

Hundreds of members of Lebanon's Hezbollah were injured due to small explosions that struck their communication devices in various regions across the country, which a party official described as "the largest security breach to date."

Iranian news agency Mehr reported that the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was injured in an explosion involving a wireless communication device.

Security sources told Reuters that over 1,000 injuries have been reported across Lebanon due to the device explosions.

Activists shared dozens of images and videos showing injured young men in the streets amid widespread panic among residents caused by the mysterious blasts targeting mobile communication devices used by Hezbollah members.

Reports of injuries came from southern Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon, with conflicting information regarding the number of casualties, which are believed to be in the hundreds.

Lebanese security sources expressed suspicion that the incident resulted from an Israeli infiltration that caused the devices' batteries to explode.

A Reuters journalist witnessed ten Hezbollah members bleeding from their injuries in southern Beirut.

A Lebanese security source stated that Israel accessed Hezbollah's communication system and caused the explosions, adding that calls were made for party members to discard their devices. 

China Prompts Oil Price Crash

The marked shift in oil sentiment recently has been to a great deal prompted by a widespread concern of Chinese demand peaking this or next year as LNG displaces diesel in long-haul trucking, EV sales overtaking conventional cars since July and rail expansion eating into jet fuel recovery.

Chinese refinery runs have been declining for five straight months, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting throughput rates at 13.91 million b/d in August amidst a widespread decline in Shandong teapot runs, as low as 55% last month. 

Meanwhile, Asian refiners’ margins slumped to the lowest seasonal levels since 2020 as high inventories of diesel and gasoline become an increasingly worrying factor as peak summer demand tapers off.

China’s clampdown on tax evasion is aggravating the pressure on refiners after a Shandong court ruled two refiners run by state-owned firm Sinochem, the Huaxing and Zhenghe plants totalling 220,000 b/d in capacity, fully bankrupt. 

What caused Baltimore Bridge disaster?

Nearly six months after the late-March Dali Bridge allision disaster outside the Port of Baltimore a just released report from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Office of Marine Safety presents some newly found insights, reported by Seatrade Maritime News.

Deep within the NTSB report, it is revealed that a loose cable connection discovered during inspections, conducted during April, might have been the cause of power blackouts aboard Dali that led to the disaster which followed in the early morning hours of March 26.

Its latest brief provides insights from ongoing work by a newly formed “Engineering Group”, which is composed of owners Grace Ocean Private Limited, ship managers Synergy Marine Group, shipbuilder HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), classification society Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (Class NK), flag-state Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore, and India, which is described as a “substantially interested State”.

The 41-page report exhaustively details the weeks of tests on the ship’s electrical system that were conducted in the weeks post-allision mainly by engineers from HHI, under close observation from NTSB personnel. The wording extracted from the NTSB report here, describing activity deep within the vessel electrical switchboard array, is highly technical, with emphasis added by Seatrade Maritime News:

HHI engineers found that one of the cable cores that connects the DB1X-1 relay of the GPT1 panel to the control line was loose. The DB1X-1 relay is for bus blackout detection. Two ends of the DB1X-1 relay are nodes 381 and 382. Node 381 is connected to node 304 of the control line and node 382 is connected to node 305 of the control line…HHI engineers found that the cable was loosely connected at node 381. That condition can create an open circuit and interrupt the 110VDC power to the HR1 UVT Coil, which would trigger an under voltage release trip of HR1. This would result in a 440V blackout without leaving any records in the HiMAP-T sensor….

HHI engineers advised that if the cable is loosely connected, the UVT control voltage might not maintain a steady value of 110VDC. If this condition is not met, the HR1 will open, which would lead to a Low Voltage (440V) Switchboard blackout. If the transformers are set to an automatic switch mode, LR2/HR2 is automatically closed and TR2 is connected when HR1/LR1 is open.

These findings will no doubt be considered as the NTSB works towards a final report on the Dali allision.

In an April interview with Seatrade Maritime News, Holland & Knight lawyer Benjamin Allen, a veteran of the NTSB and now a Partner in H & K’s Washington, DC office focusing on transportation accident litigation, had suggested that a one-year timeline might be a reasonable expectation for the NTSB to issue its final report on the Dali incident.

 

 

Iran wants US to abandon its hostility

Iran could hold direct talks with the United States if Washington demonstrates in practice that it is not hostile to the Islamic Republic, said President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday.

Pezeshkian was responding to a question at a news conference in Tehran on whether Tehran would be open to direct talks with the US to revive a 2015 nuclear deal.

Former US president Donald Trump reneged on that deal in 2018, arguing it was too generous to Tehran, and restored harsh US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to gradually violate the agreement's nuclear limits.

"We are not hostile towards the US, they should end their hostility towards us by showing their goodwill in practice," said Pezeshkian, adding, "We are brothers with the Americans as well."

After taking office in January 2021, US President Joe Biden tried to negotiate a revival of the nuclear pact under which Iran had restricted its nuclear program in return for relief from US, European Union and UN sanctions.

However, Tehran refused to directly negotiate with Washington and worked mainly through European or Arab intermediaries.

 

Kashmiris to vote in historic elections

On a bright September afternoon, a caravan of colorful cars, festooned with flags, arrives at a village in Indian-administered Kashmir for an election rally. Iltija Mufti, a politician from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), slowly rises from the sunroof of one of the cars, reports Saudi Gazette.

“Yeli ye Mufti (When Mufti will be in power)," she shouts at a crowd that has gathered to hear the third-generation leader of one of the most influential political dynasties of the region.

“Teli Tch’le Sakhti (Then the repression will end)," they respond in unison.

From a distance, army personnel in bulletproof jackets, armed with automatic rifles, stand watch, tracking every movement.

For the first time in a decade, elections are being held in 47 assembly seats of Kashmir, long marked by violence and unrest. The region, claimed by both India and Pakistan, has been the cause of three wars between the nuclear-armed neighbors. Since the 1990s, an armed insurgency against Indian rule has claimed thousands of lives, including civilians and security forces.

The three-phase polls will also extend to the 43 seats in the neighboring Hindu-majority Jammu region.

The election is the first since 2019, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government revoked Jammu and Kashmir's autonomy, stripped its statehood, and split it into two federally administered territories. Since then, the region has been governed by a federal administrator.

In the fray are 13 main parties vying for a majority in the 90-seat assembly.

The major players are the two main regional parties — the PDP led by Mehbooba Mufti and the National Conference (NC) which is headed by Omar Abdullah. Both Mufti and Abdullah are former chief ministers of the region.

The NC has formed an alliance with India's main opposition party Congress.

Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also contesting but not many are betting on the party, which has a stronghold in Jammu but a weak political base in the valley.

In the last elections in 2014, the BJP had formed a government in alliance with PDP after sweeping Jammu. The alliance fell apart in 2018 after years of disagreements.

Also in the picture, this time, is Engineer Rashid — a politician who has spent five years in jail accused of a terror case and was released on bail this week. Rashid came to the limelight earlier this year when he pulled off a stunning victory in the general election over Abdullah. He fought the election from jail, with his sons leading an emotional campaign on the ground.

Elections in Kashmir have long been contentious, with residents and separatist leaders often boycotting them, viewing the process as Delhi's attempt to legitimize its control.

Since 1947, Kashmir has held 12 assembly elections, but voter turnout has often been low and marked by violence. Militants have attacked polling stations, and security forces have been accused of forcing voters to come out and vote. Since the 1990s, hundreds of political workers have been kidnapped or killed by militant groups.

But for the first time in decades, even separatist leaders are contesting in several seats.

The most keenly watched of these is the outlawed Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) party, which has joined hands with Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).

Residents will vote to elect a local assembly, led by a chief minister and council of ministers. Though the assembly will have limited powers under Delhi's rule, it has sparked hopes for a political change in the valley.

Almost all opposition parties have pledged to restore statehood and the region's special status. The BJP has ruled out restoring autonomy but has promised to reinstate statehood to Jammu and Kashmir "at an appropriate time after the elections".

Most residents appeared to be reconciled to the loss of their region's autonomy.

“I don’t think Article 370 will come back unless any miracle happens,” said Suheel Mir, a research scholar, adding that parties were making promises about restoring autonomy in a “politically charged” atmosphere to get votes.

Several young men and women said they were more concerned about issues like political instability, corruption and most of all, unemployment - also a major concern in Jammu.

“We want to cast our vote to resolve our day-to-day issues. It has nothing to do with the Kashmir dispute,” said a man who did not wish to be named.

But others said they didn't want to give the impression that they had accepted the events of 2019 and would participate in the election solely to vote against the BJP.

"We want to send a message to the government that the revocation is unacceptable to us no matter what," said 38-year-old Zameer Ahmad.

Five years ago when Modi's government abrogated Article 370, the 70-year-old constitutional provision that gave the region its autonomy, the government said it was necessary to restore normalcy in India’s only Muslim-majority region.

The move triggered a severe security clampdown, mass detentions, curfews and a months-long internet blackout, stripping residents of rights to jobs and land.

Since then, Modi and his ministers have extensively talked about a new era of peace and development in Kashmir, announcing projects worth hundreds of millions of dollars that they say are part of a plan to integrate the region's economy with the rest of India. (Until Jammu and Kashmir's special status was removed, outsiders could not buy land to do business there).

But locals say they have yet to see the benefits of such projects and continue to struggle with violence and high levels of unemployment.

Thousands of Indian army troops continue to be perpetually deployed there, with powers that have led to decades of allegations of human rights violations.

"There is an absence of democracy and freedoms in Kashmir and many political activists remain in jail," said political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba.

"The election allows people to give their verdict for or against these changes."

The change in mood is visible everywhere.

Across Jammu and Kashmir, streets are adorned with posters, party flags, and billboards and men at local bakeries freely discuss election outcomes over chai.

"There has been a complete overhaul of traditional political narratives," said Tooba Punjabi, a researcher.

"Earlier, public boycotts defined elections. But now, it's a means of putting the right party in place to undo the damage."

The shift in political attitudes was also evident earlier this year, when Kashmir registered a historic 58.46% voter turnout in the parliamentary election.

Many residents are now pinning their hopes on regional parties to raise their demands.

"These parties have acted as a shield between Delhi and Kashmir," said businessman Tahir Hussain," adding that "it didn't matter who will form the government as long as it's a local one".

Analysts say the BJP's performance could also receive a significant blow in Jammu this time, where internal discord and infighting has derailed its ambitions.

There's also growing anger among the residents who are unhappy with the party's policies.

Until now, the BJP's push for development has resonated with people in Jammu who hope it would bring in more economic opportunities for them.

But many say they are yet to see any signs of change. “In fact, now that Article 370 has been scrapped, people from other states are coming to Jammu. Our rights on jobs and land are being taken away from us," said Gulchain Singh Charak, a local politician.

Sunil Sethi, BJP's chief spokesperson in the region, rejected the allegations.

“We have done massive infrastructure developments, built roads and brought foreign investors here,” he said.

No war between China and Malaysia

The mere mention of the South China Sea these days conjures up an image of confrontation between China and rival claimants, military or otherwise. So many heads were turned following a leak of a diplomatic note from China to the Malaysian Embassy in Beijing calling on Kuala Lumpur to stop all drilling in the South China Sea. But we should not deduce that the Sino-Malaysian relationship is about to go south, argues Phar Kim Beng.

This is for several reasons, such as the two sides having developed the necessary channels of communication to handle friction, and that Malaysia has been the coordinator of the China-ASEAN relationship since last August.

This is illustrated by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim taking to using the word "discussion" to replace "negotiation" with China. While this does not hint at any short or long term solutions, neither is it a sign of China and Malaysia engaging in a war of words, let alone their militaries coming to blows.

Missile fired at Israel

A surface-to-surface missile was fired at central Israel from Yemen on Sunday, hitting an unpopulated area and causing no injuries, reports Reuters.

Air raid sirens had sounded in Tel Aviv and across central Israel moments before the missile landed at around 0335 GMT, sending residents running for shelter.

"Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in central Israel, a surface-to-surface missile was identified crossing into central Israel from the east and fell in an open area. No injuries were reported," the military said.

Loud booms were also heard in the region, which the military said came from missile interceptors that had been launched. It added that its protective guidelines to Israel's residents were unchanged.

Smoke could be seen billowing in an open field in central Israel, according to Reuters, though it was unclear if the fire was started by the missile or debris of an interceptor.

In July, Houthis fired a long-range drone at Tel Aviv, killing one man and wounding four others. The attack prompted Israel to carry out a major air strike on Houthi military targets near Yemen's Hodeidah port, killing at least three people and wounding 87.

The Israeli military also said that 40 projectiles were fired towards Israel from Lebanon on Sunday and were either intercepted or landed in open areas.

"No injuries were reported," the military said.

 

Israel stuck in Gaza and bleeding

The Israeli army’s former head of operations has criticized the continuing war in Gaza saying the regime is “stuck in Gaza and bleeding”. Major General Israel Ziv described the war as a “dire quagmire”.

Ziv, who previously led the Gaza Division, asserted that the war has become a source of political stability for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet, Al Jazeera reported. 

He suggested that Netanyahu might be prolonging the war to maintain his political position and delay his corruption trial, which could lead to imprisonment.

Ziv added that after a year of what he called the longest and most exhausting war in Israel’s history, the regime finds itself trapped in a continuous security crisis with no end in sight.

He noted that the situation is not improving and lacks a clear path towards resolution.

He emphasized that the war, which Netanyahu claimed was on the verge of victory six months ago, now appears endless.

 

PSX benchmark index posts 0.55%WoW gains

During the week ended on September 13, 2024, the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced volatility early in the week but gained momentum as investors anticipated a rate cut.

On Thursday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised with a 200bps reduction amid a higher than expected fall in inflation, lowering the policy rate to 17.5%. This move boosted investor sentiment.

The IMF spokesperson revealed that Pakistan has secured necessary financing assurances from development partners and will be discussed at the executive board meeting scheduled for September 25, 2024, further enhancing investor confidence. The rate cut invigorated the cyclical sector, resulting in the benchmark index closing at 79,333 points, a gain of 435 points, up 0.55%WoW.

However, a mini budget is on the cards to generate an additional PKR650 billion in tax collections, if FBR fails to meet its collection targets.

Workers remittance for August 2024 were reported at US$2.94 billion, up 40.5%YoY.

The average daily traded volume declined to 606.74 million share from 675.46 million shares a week ago, down 10.2%WoW.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at PKR278.14/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) FBR considering traders’ new proposal to collect advance tax, 2) Pakistan and Russia sign MoU for agricultural cooperation, 3) Petrol price likely to be slashed further by PKR12, 4) Privatization of PIA anticipated by end of October and 5) T-Bills outflows jump amid uncertainty.

Leather & Tanneries, Woollen, Tobacco, Pharmaceuticals and Property were amongst the top performing sectors, while the laggards included Leasing companies, Modarabas, Automobile parts & Accessories, Refinery & Real Estate Investment Trust.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$7.54 million. Individuals, mutual funds, and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$16.38 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: 1) SRVI, EFUG, PAKT, BNWN, and HCAR, while to laggards included MTL, PGLC, KOHC, IGIHL, and THALL.

IMF executive board approval, along with continuation of monetary easing, would keep equities in investor radar, currently trading at P/E of 3.6x and DY of 13.5%.

Aforementioned factors, along with an improving external account position and a better country credit rating, would keep foreigners’ interest alive.

AKD Securities recommends sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals.

A wakeup call for the US citizens

Let's acknowledge the reality, the United States operates under a façade of democracy. At best, it can be described as a "hybrid democracy," where elected representatives do not truly govern. Instead, military-industrial complexes, oil corporations, and Wall Street exert control.

Both major political candidates receive substantial financial backing from these powerful non-state entities. Once elected, presidents often find themselves subservient to these interests rather than serving the people.

People worldwide should remember that Democrats and Republicans have often united to erode fundamental freedoms, establishing a secretive regime of mass surveillance, unconstitutional detention, and torture.

They have dragged the nation into illegal wars based on lies, resulting in millions of deaths and the squandering of trillions of dollars.

It is essential not to forget the millions who stood against the exploitation of national grief to further the neoconservative agenda of global military domination—citizens whose voices were ignored and demonized by the political elite.

We must also remember how Muslims and their neighbors have been unjustly targeted, surveilled, smeared, and falsely accused in the name of "protecting the United States."

Patriotism has been weaponized to undermine the First Amendment, stifling dissent, journalism, whistleblowing, and activism. To this day, there are ongoing efforts to criminalize protests against injustice, war, and genocide.

Never forget how both Democrats and Republicans have set the country on a path toward fascism, leading to an administration openly supporting the genocide of the Palestinian people.

True patriotism requires the courage to stand up for justice, not blindly following orders. By resisting both war-driven political parties, the American people can halt the descent into fascism and fight for a peaceful, just, and livable future for the generations to come.

Pakistan: Central Bank Reduces Policy Rate

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced its monetary policy statement today (September 12, 2024) decreasing the policy rate by 200bps to 17.5%. After the announcement, the SBP Governor made the following remarks in the analyst briefing:

The SBP's policy rate decision is influenced by a greater than expected decline in inflation and favorable trends in global oil and food prices. However, given the uncertain nature of these developments, the committee has adopted a cautious stance.

Real interest rates remain sufficiently positive to achieve the SBP's medium-term inflation target of up to 7%.

The SBP is not focused on a specific interest rate level but considers various factors, including the external account and future inflation, when making rate decisions.

Governor was hopeful that the IMF board will review Pakistan’s agenda for the approval of the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program this month, as the government has secured all required external financing assurances.

Moving forward, the SBP will publish semi-annual data on central bank interventions in currency markets, as well as projections for foreign exchange reserves and upcoming debt obligations over the next six months.

Data on currency market interventions will be published with a three-month lag due to the sensitivity of the information.

In June 2024, the SBP purchased US$573 million from the open market.

By the end of March 2025, country’s foreign exchange reserves are projected to reach US$12.0 billion despite debt repayments.

The government is obligated to pay US$14.2 billion by March 2025, of which US$8.3 billion will be rolled over, while the remaining amount consists of debt repayments.

To date, the government has cleared US$4 billion in debt, including US$2.3 billion in rollovers. The remaining debt repayments of US$5.8 billion will be spread evenly until March 2025.

For FY24, the government has US$26 billion in debt obligations, including US$12 billion in rollovers and US$4 billion in commercial bilateral loans, which are also expected to be rolled over.

Of the US$8.3 billion repayments due this year, US$1.7 billion has already been settled.

According to audited accounts, the SBP earned a profit of PKR2.5 trillion in FY24 and is expected to disburse this amount as a dividend to the government in the coming days.

Non-oil imports are at levels seen in FY22 and early FY23, with the reduction primarily driven by a significant decline in oil imports.

 

 

Rising resentment against Israel

A Jordanian driver, identified as Maher Thiyab Hussein al-Jazi, killed three Israelis on Sunday at the Israeli-controlled border crossing that connects Jordan with the West Bank.

The Israeli military said the man approached the Allenby Bridge from Jordan in a truck, exited the vehicle and opened fire on forces operating the bridge.

The Jordanian citizen’s shooting at the border crossing shows the depth of anger against Israel. The majority of people in the Arab world are filled with a strong feeling of rage against the Israeli rulers.

Persons like Maher Thiyab Hussein al-Jazi sacrifice their lives in defense of Palestinians that there is no prospect for their agonies.

On Jun 03, 2023, four months before the October 07 attack by Hamas on Israel, an Egyptian border guard also crossed into Israel and killed three soldiers. The Egyptian officer knew that he would be killed but he defied all the dangers to vent his anger at Israel.

The anti-Israeli feeling has run deeper since Israel started the sadistic war on Gaza.

Jordanians have held regular protests against the Gaza war despite harsh restrictions on speech and public gatherings.

The driver’s brother Shady Al-Jazi said his brother’s anger at Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza may have been a motivating factor.

“He used to work as a truck driver and would cross (the bridge) often to offload the truck and then return back to Jordan. But his grief over what’s happening to the Muslim nation, seeing all the killing in Gaza, and every one of us who feels passionately for his brethren, this could motivate him,” he told Jordanian news outlet Ammon in an on-air interview, the Washington Post reported.

In reaction to the incident, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country is “surrounded by a murderous ideology led by Iran's axis of evil.”

But it is ideologically driven extremists, including Netanyahu, who have put Israel in such a precarious situation. They cannot get out of this self-created quagmire otherwise there is a U-turn in Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians.

Netanyahu is notoriously famous for telling lies and making nonsensical remarks. Even when people gathered outside Capitol Hill to protest the Israeli war on Gaza while he was addressing the American Congress on July 24, he called protestors "useful idiots" of Iran and claimed that Iran is funding and promoting anti-war protests. 

Netanyahu has lost direction and badly gone mad. He is not even listening to the Israelis who want an end to the war in Gaza. About 750,000 people took to the streets on Saturday night in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.

In the campaign against his rivals for recapturing power he called himself the “man of security”. But he has put the entire Israel in jeopardy.    

Netanyahu’s attempts to demonize Iran for Israel’s troubles neither work nor deceive people. Every person with a common sense can easily understand the hatred toward Israeli rulers.

Netanyahu’s army has been committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip since October last year. The settlers have killed about 700 Palestinians in the West Bank during these 340 days.

The anti-Israeli feeling is also boiling high in many non-Arab countries including the United States. The protests in American universities against the war on Gaza and calling President Biden “genocide Joe” for shipping lethal arms to Israel are examples of impatience and resentment against the savage war on Gaza.

 

How far can crude oil prices plunge?

We are of the view that crude oil price may fall below US$60 per barrel, if production in countries like Libya, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela rise to normal. Sanctions on Russia and Iran are also there to avoid glut. We have the convictions that unrest in some of the African countries is there to avoid fall of crude oil price below US$50 per barrel  

Brent crude futures fell below US$70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since December 2021, after OPEC Plus revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025.

Brent crude futures were traded at US$69.51 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped to US$66.21. On Monday, both benchmarks had risen about 1%.

On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month's forecast for growth of 2.11 million bpd. Until last month, OPEC had kept the forecast unchanged since it was first made in July 2023.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd. Prices slid on the weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply.

On Monday, Chinese data showed consumer inflation accelerated in August to its fastest in half a year, though domestic demand remained fragile, and producer price deflation worsened.

Data released on Tuesday showed China's exports grew in August at their fastest in nearly 1-1/2 years, yet imports disappointed with domestic demand depressed.

“If we lose China this market is going to have a problem because OPEC just cannot cut enough to offset the US and Brazilian position, and some of the other reservoirs at work,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

 

MSC ship loses 46 containers overboard

According to Seatrade Maritime News, the South African Maritime Safety Authority (SAMSA) has reported that the Liberian-flagged MSC Antonia has lost lost 46 containers overboard while a further 305 boxes suffered damage in the Indian Ocean corridor on August 28, 2024.

"The incident occurred approximately 29 nautical miles northeast of Port St. Johns while the vessel was enroute from Colombo to New York. In light of the container loss, a navigation warning has been issued to all vessels operating in the affected area,” SAMSA said in a statement.

The MSC Antonio safely arrived in the port of Cape Town on August 30, where it would undergo a comprehensive assessment and necessary repairs.

The incident with the MSC Antonio follows the loss of 99 containers from the CMA CGM Belem in adverse weather while sailing off the coast of Richards Bay in South Africa on Thursday August 16.

The 13,000 teu CMA CGM Belem sought safe habour in the Port of Ngqurha following the incident and has since been making load adjustments.

On Friday last week, the ship's insurer representatives in South Africa launched a five hour aerial surveillance and search for the vessel's lost containers after several sightings of floating containers along the Wild Coast area of the Eastern Cape province were reported to the authorities.

SAMSA said around 20 containers were spotted but it could not be confirmed that they belonged to the CMA CGM Belem.

The incident with the CMA CGM Belem came just a month after the CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin lost 44 containers overboard off the coast of South Africa while sailing round the Cape of Good Hope.

All three vessels in recent incidents were on voyages between Asia and Europe and transiting the Cape of Good Hope due to the security situation in the Red Sea.

Container ships would normally transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal between Asia and Europe. However, the vast majority have diverted to sailing via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis. This has exposed vessels that would not normally transit the African cape to severe winter storms in the region.

 

 

 

 

Iran trade with OIC members on the rise

The value of the trade between Iran and the other 56 members of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) reached US$26.7 billion in the first five months of the current Iranian calendar year, registering a 15 percent increase compared to the same period a year earlier.

According to the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), the volume of the trade between Iran and OIC member states in the mentioned five months reached 42.3 million tons, also 10 percent more compared to the previous year's same time span.

Iran exported 33.6 million tons of non-oil goods worth US$13.5 billion to OIC member countries and imported 8.7 million tons of commodities valued at US$13.2 billion from them in the first five months of the current Iranian year, Mohammad Rezvanifar said.

The deputy economy minister added that the country’s exports to OIC members registered 16% and 8.0% increase in value and weight respectively in the mentioned period, while the import of products from the mentioned countries also increased by 18% and 15% in terms of weight and value.

Among the OIC member states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and Oman were Iran’s major trade partners, the IRICA head noted.

Back in May 2023, the former head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) stressed the need for establishing a joint Islamic market among OIC members over the next 10 years.

Addressing a gathering of the heads of OIC member chambers of commerce on the sidelines of the "Russia - Islamic World: Kazan Forum 2023" in Russia, Gholam-Hossein Shafeie said, “An important issue that has been discussed a lot in the past and the organization should pay attention to it in the current situation is the creation of a common Islamic market in the next 10 years, which can be achieved by concluding a free trade agreement among Islamic countries and removing tariff and non-tariff barriers.”

“Experts have worked on the Islamic market plan, and using the experiences and studies of these experts can definitely be a way forward,” he added.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which was formed in 1972, today has reached a position where, according to statistics, the future of the world's energy would be in the hands of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Shafeie said in his speech.