Monday 30 September 2024

Pakistan stock market up 3% in 3Q2024

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, topline Securities, the benchmark KSE-100 index has posted 3.4%QoQ in rupee and 3.7% in US dollar terms in 3Q2024, marking the sixth consecutive quarter in positive trajectory.

Continuation of positive momentum is attributed to: 1) firstly the completion of staff level agreement with IMF at start of 3Q2024, 2) IMF board approval and disbursement of first tranche to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) at the end of quarter, 3) Inflation entering single digits for the first time since October 2021, 4) reduction in policy rate by 300bps to 17.5%, 5) improvement in country’s credit rating according to major credit rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch, 6) better than expected current account number, which entered surplus in August, and 7) stability in currency amidst strong dollar inflows.

As per Bloomberg data, Pakistan market remained 4th best performer in 2Q2024 with total US$ return of 17% However in 3Q2024 the ranking stood at 66 in World Equity Index.

The continuation of positive momentum in stock market has been accompanied by healthy trading activity with average daily traded volumes in the Cash and Ready market increased by 74%YoY to 490 million shares. The average traded value also jumped by 86%YoY to PKR18 billion/ day during 3Q20204.

The average volumes in the Futures market also increased by 61%YoY and by 8%QoQ to 172 million shares/ day. The average traded value of the same increased by 57%YoY and by 4%QoQ to PKR7.2 billion/ day. Increase on a QoQ basis is due to lower interest rates in 3Q2024.

During 3Q2024, foreigners emerged net sellers of PKR4.68 billion (US$16.8 million) as against net buyers of PKR18.3 billion (US$65.8 million) in 2Q2024. Reversal of positive trend was due to FTSE rebalancing related foreign selling during the quarter which is expected to trail off into 4Q2024 as well.

Investor concerns regarding FTSE rebalancing related selling were mitigated by selling being absorbed by both local and foreign investors and the market maintaining its positive momentum.

On the local front, mutual funds were major buyers with net buy of US$14.2 million followed by Banks and DFIs with net buy of US$7.5 million. Individuals were the biggest net buyers to the tune of US$45.8 million. However, Insurance and Companies remained sellers of US$15.5 million and US$15.5 million respectively in the quarter under review.

The key scrips of KSE-100 index that outperformed market in 3Q2024 included National Bank (NBP) up 62%, Mari Petroleum (MARI) up 44%, and Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) up 42%.

Key sectors that outperformed market during the quarter included Jute, Pharmaceuticals and Transport.

Market outlook

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held on September 12, 2024, decided to reduce the policy rate by 200bps to 17.5%. This was the third consecutive rate cut announced by central bank in response to receding inflation readings in past few months due to high base effect, falling food prices and comfortable external position.

Interest rate: The Committee noted that the pace of disinflation has exceeded committee’s earlier expectations due to delay in implementation of planned increases in administered energy prices and favorable movement in global oil and food prices. Since inflation is expected to remain in single digit in next quarter, further policy rate cut cannot be ruled out.

Rating Revision: IMF’s executive board approved Pakistan’s US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) on September 25, 2024. Following this approval, an upgrade of Pakistan’s rating by international agencies like Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P cannot be ruled out.

MSCI Inflows: MSCI Semi-Annual Index Review is scheduled for Nov 07, 2024 where we are expecting further increase in weight of Pakistan due to continued bull-run of market.

Commodity Prices: Outlook of Pakistan's economy will also be dependent upon commodity prices going forward. Brent oil prices have declined from average of US$85/bbl in 2Q2024 to US$79/bbl in 3Q2024. The petroleum group makes up a major portion of Pakistan’s imports and was 30% of total imports in 2MFY25.

 

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