Monday 3 July 2023

Pakistan: Ship breaking faces bleak outlook

According to Seatrade Maritime News, Pakistan’s Gadani Beach could become a ghost town as the ten-kilometre strip, home to more than 130 ship breaking plots, fails to adapt to the Hong Kong Convention rules.

Following the accession of Bangladesh and Liberia to the IMO’s Hong Kong Convention (HKC), the global standard will now enter force on 26 June 2025. It’s been a long time coming, having been originally adopted by the IMO in 2009, but it now has major implications for owners seeking to dispose of end-of-life ships.

Apart from rogue outsiders who still operate vessels in some regions where the global safety framework carries little weight, owners and operators will come under growing pressure to ensure that end-of-life ships are disposed of as safely and responsibly as possible.

As the third largest ship recycling nation, Pakistan recyclers are likely to find it increasingly hard to attract sellers. Unlike the other two ship dismantling subcontinent nations – India and Bangladesh – the country’s yard owners and managers have made few moves, if any, to upgrade facilities to meet HKC standards.  

“Gadani really has become virtually redundant as a viable subcontinent recycling destination,” declared GMS, the world’s largest cash buyer of end-of-life ships, in its most recent weekly report.

The warning coincides with a deepening economic crisis in Pakistan which has forced the country to seek emergency funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Last week, it was revealed that a tentative agreement had been reached between the state and the IMF for a US$3 billion emergency bail-out. However, this has not yet been formally agreed. 

One result of the country’s financial crisis is that the central bank has been forced to limit or refuse to issue letters of credit to fund end-of-life ship acquisitions. Therefore, significant ship recycling deals have not been possible anyway.

Meanwhile, Eid holidays have resulted in a quiet week spell across the recycling sector as a whole. GMS said that any price ideas that were mooted remain noticeably below the market and not worth considering at this time. “Until we see liquidity issues ease in the industry, we are not likely to make much sense of local markets,” the firm added. 

GMS estimates that Bangladesh breakers continue to offer the sharpest prices, with container ships typically at around US$625 per ldt, tankers at US$605, and bulk carriers at US$575. Theoretical price levels in India and Pakistan are around US$60 to US$80 below these levels. Meanwhile, typical prices prevailing in Turkey last week were US$340, US$330, and US$320 for the three ship types respectively. 

 

 

Sunday 2 July 2023

Sanctions on Iran are because of Southern Pars gas field, not its nuclear program

I started writing these blogs in June 2012. Over the years my focus remained on Iranian nuclear program, which is often termed the main cause of sanctions. However, when I posted my last blog on Leviathan gas field, offshore gas project of Israel, it dawned that the real cause of sanctions on Iran is its Southern Pars gas field, not the nuclear program. I quickly accessed Wikipedia and managed to put together some information.  

Pars field comprising of Southern Pars and North Dome fields is a natural-gas condensate field located in the Persian Gulf. It is by far the world's largest natural gas field, with ownership of the field shared between Iran and Qatar.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the field holds an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet (51 trillion cubic metres) of in-situ natural gas and some 50 billion barrels (7.9 billion cubic metres) of natural gas condensates.

On the list of natural gas fields it has almost as much recoverable reserves as all the other fields combined. It has significant geostrategic influence.

This gas field covers an area of 9,700 square kilometres (3,700 sq miles), of which 3,700 square kilometres (1,400 sq mile) (South Pars) is in Iranian territorial waters and 6,000 square kilometres (2,300 sq mile) (North Dome) is in Qatari territorial waters.

The field is 3,000 metres (9,800 feet) below the seabed at a water depth of 65 metres (213 feet), and consists of two independent gas-bearing formations: Kangan (Triassic) and Upper Dalan (Permian). Each formation is divided into two different reservoir layers, separated by impermeable barriers. The field consists of four independent reservoir layers K1, K2, K3, and K4.

According to International Energy Agency (IEA), the combined structure is the world's largest gas field.

In-place volumes are estimated to be around 1,800 trillion cubic feet (51 trillion cubic metres) gas in place and some 50 billion barrels (7.9 billion cubic metres) of natural gas condensate in place. With in place volumes equivalent to 360 billion barrels (57 billion cubic metres) of oil (310 billion boe of gas and 50 billion boe of natural gas condensate) the field is the world's biggest conventional hydrocarbon accumulation.

The field recoverable gas reserve is equivalent to some 215 billion barrels (34.2 billion cubic metres) of oil and it also holds about 16 billion barrels (2.5 billion cubic metres) of recoverable condensate corresponding of about 230 billion barrels (37 billion cubic metres) of oil equivalent recoverable hydrocarbons.

The gas recovery factor of the field is about 70%, corresponding of about 1,260 trillion cubic feet (36×1012 m3) of total recoverable gas reserves which stands for about 19% of world recoverable gas reserves.

The estimates for the Iranian section are 500 trillion cubic feet (14×1012 m3) of natural gas in place and around 360 trillion cubic feet (10×1012 m3) of recoverable gas which stands for 36% of Iran's total proven gas reserves and 5.6% of the world's proven gas reserves.

The estimates for the Qatari section are 900 trillion cubic feet (25×1012 m3) of recoverable gas which stands for almost 99% of Qatar's total proven gas reserves and 14% of the world's proven gas reserves.

Since the field is a common field and the reservoir is highly homogenous, the ultimate recoverable reserves of each country may vary from this technical assessment which only considers the static data and does not include rate of gas migration. Therefore, it is better to say that the ultimate recoverable reserves of each country would be a factor of cumulative gas production by each of them.

The Iranian section also holds 18 billion barrels (2.9 billion cubic metres) of condensate in place of which some 9 billion barrels (1.4 billion cubic metres) are believed to be recoverable, while Qatari section believed to contains some 30 billion barrels (4.8×109 m3) of condensate in place and at least some 10 billion barrels (1.6 billion cubic metres) of recoverable condensate.

The South Pars Field was discovered in 1990 by National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). The Pars Oil and Gas Company, a subsidiary of NIOC, has jurisdiction over all South Pars-related projects. Field development has been delayed by various problems - technical (i.e., high levels of mercaptans and foul-smelling sulfur compounds), contractual issues and, recently, politics.

Gas production started from the field by commissioning phase 2 in December 2002 to produce 1 billion cubic feet per day (28 million cubic metres per day) of wet gas. Gas is sent to shore via pipeline, and processed at Assaluyeh.

As of December 2010, South pars gas field's production capacity stands at 75 million cubic metres (2.6 billion cubic feet) of natural gas per day. Gas production at South Pars rose by nearly 30% between March 2009 and March 2010. The field's reserves are estimated at 14 trillion cubic metres (490 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas and 18 billion barrels (2.9 billion cubic metres) of natural gas condensates.

NIOC is planning to develop the field in 24 to 30 phases, capable of producing about 25 billion cubic feet (710 million cubic metres) to 30 billion cubic feet (850 million cubic metres) of natural gas per day. Each standard phase is defined for daily production of 1 billion cubic feet (28 million cubic metres) of natural gas, 40,000 barrels (6,400 m3) of condensate, 1500 tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 200 tons of sulfur.

However some phases have some different production plans. Each of the phases is estimated to have an average capital spend of around US$1.5 billion, and most will be led by foreign oil firms working in partnership with local companies.

 

 

Leviathan partners in Israel to invest US$568 million in third gas pipeline

Partners in the Israeli offshore gas project Leviathan said on Sunday they would invest US$568 million to build a third pipeline that will allow increased natural gas production and exports.

The Leviathan consortium includes operator Chevron and Israel's NewMed Energy and Ratio Energies.

Leviathan, a deep-sea field with huge deposits, came online at the end of 2019 and produces 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year for sale to Israel, Egypt and Jordan. The idea is to boost capacity to include sizeable volumes for Europe as it seeks to reduce dependence on Russian energy.

The new pipeline will connect the well with a production facility some 10 km off Israel's Mediterranean shore. It is due to come online in the second half of 2025, when production at Leviathan will jump to 14 bcm a year, the companies said.

"Expansion of the production capacity and future liquefaction via a designated liquefaction facility will allow us to supply more natural gas to the local, regional, and very soon also the global market," said NewMed CEO Yossi Abu.

In the longer-term, Leviathan production is expected to reach about 21 bcm a year. The group has announced plans for a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal off the Israeli coast with an annual LNG capacity of about 4.6 million tons, or 6.5 bcm.

Ratio CEO Yigal Landau said that record demand from last year continued into the first quarter, and that there was room to expand use of the export network in Jordan as well.

"We are currently exploring the option of upgrading transmission infrastructures in Jordan to transport additional gas quantities to markets in Jordan and Egypt," Landau said.

Saturday 1 July 2023

Syria claims intercepting Israeli missile attack

Syria claimed on Sunday its air defences intercepted what it called an Israeli missile strike across central parts of the country and downed most of the missiles.

An army statement said missiles that flew over parts of Lebanon's capital Beirut hit locations in the vicinity of the city of Homs, resulting only in material damage.

An Israeli military spokesman said Israeli warplanes targeted a Syrian air defence battery from which an anti-aircraft missile was launched towards Israel.

The warplanes also attacked other targets in the area, while no casualties were reported from the Syrian missile that exploded in mid-air, said the spokesman, Avichay Adraee.

Israel has in recent months intensified strikes on Syrian airports and air bases to disrupt Iran's increasing use of aerial supply lines to deliver arms to allies in Syria and Lebanon, including Lebanon's Hezbolla.

The Israeli strikes are part of an escalation of what has been a low-intensity conflict continuing for years with a goal of slowing Iran's growing entrenchment in Syria, Israeli military experts say.

Tehran's influence has grown in Syria since it began supporting President Bashar al-Assad in the civil war that started in 2011.

Fighters allied to Iran, including Hezbollah, now hold sway in areas in eastern, southern and northwestern Syria and in several suburbs around the capital.

 

 

 

 

Muslim leaders acknowledge Saudi role in Hajj

According to Saudi Gazette, leaders of the Muslim Ummah and heads of Islamic organizations have praised Saudi Arabia and its leadership on the successful completion of Hajj this year (2023).

The Muslim World League (MWL) congratulated the Kingdom, under the leadership of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister, on the successful completion of Hajj.

In a statement issued by the league’s General Secretariat, MWL Secretary-General and Chairman of the Organization of Muslim Scholars Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulkarim Al-Issa said the great success of the Hajj is one more accomplishment in the long list of Kingdom’s achievements in serving the Two Holy Mosques and the pilgrims, as well as the entire Muslim world.

He added that this success is the result of great efforts and coordination of operations based on a system that operated in accordance with the highest standards of efficiency, responsibility and professionalism, under the care and direct follow-up of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and of the Crown Prince.

The secretary-general praised the care and services provided by Saudi Arabia to the pilgrims, underlining the relentless endeavors to raise the level of services and harness all capabilities to facilitate the Hajj journey.

In Cairo, the Grand Imam of Al Azhar Sheikh Ahmed Al Tayeb congratulated the Kingdom's leadership and the Saudi people on the success of the Hajj 1444 Hijri.

Sheikh Al Tayeb commended the great role played by Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and the Crown Prince, to provide all services for the pilgrims who come from all over the world to perform this pillar of Islam.

The Grand Imam of Al Azhar prayed to Allah Almighty to protect the Kingdom and all other Muslim countries, and to bless them with security, safety, safety, prosperity and stability.

Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Crown Prince Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah have congratulated King Salman on the success of the Hajj season.

In cables sent to the King, the Kuwaiti leadership expressed its sincere congratulations on the outstanding success that was achieved thanks to the care given by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and his government, represented by all ministries and sectors, which mobilized and devoted all its capabilities and efforts around the clock with all sincerity and dedication to achieve a successful Hajj.

The Kuwaiti Leadership praised the ongoing expansion works at the Grand Mosque throughout the year and the application of modern smart services and technologies across all ports and sites, which are consistent with the Kingdom's vision of developing services during the Hajj to meet the needs of the pilgrims and facilitate the performance of the Hajj. These efforts will always be admired and appreciated by everyone, they said.

President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) sent a cable of congratulations to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques on the occasion of the success of the Hajj.

Sheikh Mohammed expressed his sincere congratulations on the success of the Hajj this year, which was achieved by the grace of Allah Almighty, and thanks to the generous care of King Salman and his wise government and its institutions to ensure that pilgrims can perform the rituals in tranquility and safety.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, and Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE Vice President, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Presidential Court, also sent two similar cables to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques on the occasion of the success of the Hajj season of 1444 Hijri.

Sheikh Dr. Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi, Supreme Council Member of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Ruler of Sharjah, sent a cable of congratulations to King Salman on the occasion.

Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed bin Sultan Al Qasimi, the Crown Prince and Deputy Ruler of Sharjah, as well as Deputy Rulers Sheikh Abdullah bin Salem bin Sultan Al Qasimi and Sheikh Sultan bin Ahmed bin Sultan Al Qasimi sent similar cables to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques.

Sheikh Saud bin Rashid Al Mu'alla, Supreme Council Member of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ruler of Umm Al Qaiwain, sent a cable of congratulations to King Salman on the occasion of the successful completion of the Hajj 1444 Hijri.

Sheikh Rashid bin Saud bin Rashid Al Mu'alla, Crown Prince of Umm Al Qaiwain, sent a similar cable to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques.

Sheikh Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi, Ruler of Ras Al Khaimah, and Sheikh Mohammed bin Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi, Crown Prince of Ras Al Khaimah, sent similar cables of congratulations to King Salman on the occasion.

In Jeddah, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) expressed its congratulations on the success of Hajj 1444 Hijri, praising the services provided by the government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to visitors to the Grand Mosque from the OIC member states and countries with Muslim minorities.

OIC Secretary General Hussein Ibrahim Taha appreciated the generous care of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to serve the holiest places in the hearts of Muslims, the Two Holy Mosques.

In addition, Taha commended the good hospitality given to the pilgrims and visitors of the Prophet’s Mosque and the great efforts the Kingdom exerted every year to organize a successful Hajj.

He stressed that these great services for the Holy Sites are a great honor as well as a responsibility that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia initiates with dedication, sincerity, generosity, and giving.

Arab Parliament Speaker Adel Al-Asoomi expressed his appreciation for the intensive efforts the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has exerted -- under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman -- in serving pilgrims and ensuring success of the Hajj.

In a statement issued in Cairo, Al-Asoomi said the high-quality Hajj services and all forms of facilitation reflect the Saudi leadership’s keenness on providing pilgrims the highest levels of safety.

He also commended the Kingdom’s constant endeavor to upgrade the services provided to pilgrims, while congratulating Saudi Arabia and the entire Islamic world on the success of this year’s Hajj.

In Riyadh, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Jassem Mohamed Albudaiwi, praised the great efforts of the government of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman toward serving the pilgrims of the Holy Kaaba, adding that such efforts contributed to creating an atmosphere full of tranquility, faith, safety, and ease.

The GCC Secretary General pointed out that Saudi Arabia's tireless endeavors fulfilled the pilgrims' needs and provided maximum care to them in accordance with the purposes of Islamic law and the great attention given by the government of the Kingdom to the guests of Allah.

The GCC Secretary-General extended his congratulations to King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the success of this year's Hajj. He underlined the high level of services extended to the pilgrims that embodied the smooth partnership and coordination between state agencies involved in the organization process under the direct supervision of the wise Saudi leadership.

He underscored the significance of the new and modern projects introduced by the government of the Kingdom during the Hajj, highlighting their important role in paving the way for the full integration of the management of this year's Hajj, which was admired by the pilgrims and their missions.

Albudaiwi confirmed that serving the Two Holy Mosques is a great honor and a great responsibility that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been shouldering since the era of its founder King Abdulaziz through the era of his sons including King Salman. He prayed to the Almighty to reward them for their good deeds toward Islam and Muslims.

He lauded the great efforts produced by all workers in the various sectors linked to supervising the organization of Hajj this year, so that this blessed season becomes a great example for national values such as humanitarian initiatives, volunteering and others.

Iran oil income reported by EIA at US$54 billion for 2022

According to a report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iran’s oil revenues in 2022 were reported at US$54 billion, up $17 billion from the country’s oil income in 2021.

The EIA’s report also put the Islamic Republic’s oil revenue in the first five months of 2023 at US$19 billion.

Back in January, the EIA in a report put Iran’s average oil production in 2022 at 2.54 million barrels per day (bpd), 140,000 bpd more than the previous year.

In late April, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat announced the import of Iranian oil by three European Union (EU) members in 2022, and introduced Bulgaria as the newest customer for Iranian oil in this union.

The information published by Eurostat shows that the European Union imported 4,181 tons of crude oil or oil products from Iran last year.

Although the amount of EU oil imports from Iran is not a significant figure, it indicates the desire of European refineries to ignore the US sanctions against Iran, and the inclusion of these figures in the official European oil import statistics shows the desire of the European authorities to distance themselves from the sanctions, or at least showing their objection to the US sanctions policy against Iran.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said that the oil and gas sector experienced a growth of nine percent in the past Iranian calendar year 1401.

Oil Minister Javad Oji has also said that a new record high will be reached in the country’s oil export in the current Iranian calendar year.

The country’s oil export in 1401 was 83 million barrels more than that of year 1400 and 190 million barrels more than the export in year 1399, the minister announced.

Underlining that now oil export has reached the highest figure in the last two years, the official said, “Considering that the Oil Ministry is one of the main providers of the country's foreign currency; in the 13th government, despite the tightening of cruel sanctions, fortunately, thanks to the grace of God and the efforts of our colleagues in the country's oil and gas industries, there are good records in the field of exporting crude oil, gas condensate, and petroleum and petrochemical products.”

Despite the negative impacts of the U.S. sanctions, Iran has been ramping up its oil production and exports over the past few months.

In his remarks in November 2022, President Raisi highlighted the failure of the enemy’s policy of maximum pressure, saying the country’s oil export has reached the pre-sanction levels.

 

Mossad abducts terror leader from inside Iran

Mossad announced on Thursday its method for recently thwarting a Cyprus terror attack by kidnapping the mastermind from within Iranian territory, reports The Jerusalem Post.

The stunning revelation, including the identity of the mastermind, Yusef Shahabazi Abbasalilu, was the latest in the saga which itself first broke on last Sunday.

“In a unique daring mission within Iranian territory, the Mossad was able to seize the mastermind of the terror cell, who then admitted to the terror plot in detail during his interrogation, which led to exposing and the taking apart of the Cyprus terror cell,” said a Mossad statement.

A senior Mossad official said, “We will get to every official who advances terror against Jews and Israelis anywhere in the world, including within Iranian territory.”

Abbasalilu had received detailed instructions from senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and told his interrogators exactly how the plot was to be carried out and where to find all the related supplies and cell members, said the Mossad.

Next, the spy agency passed on the information to Cyprus’ authorities who arrested most of the cell’s other members.

On Sunday, The Jerusalem Post and Phile News reported that the Mossad and Cyprus thwarted a planned Iranian terrorist attack on Jews on the island state.

That initial report said that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps planned the attack, which was stopped in cooperation between Cyprus and Western partners, which named the US and Israel as among the likely partners.

Jerusalem and Nicosia have worked together to foil Iranian plots to attack Israelis in the past. In 2021, they arrested a Russian-Azerbaijani hitman hired by the IRGC to kill Israeli businessmen in Cyprus. Billionaire Teddy Sagi, among others, was evacuated to Israel at the time.

Channel 12 added on Sunday that the terror cell targeted a Jewish real estate businessman, a Chabad site and hotels where Israelis tend to visit. Seven members of the cell were arrested, with one having escaped.

In March, Greek police disrupted what they called a foreign terrorist network operating within the country and arrested two foreign nationals.

According to both the Mossad and AFP, the terrorists were plotting to attack Israelis in Greece. “This is another example of Iran trying to use terror against Israeli and Jewish targets overseas,” said the Mossad at the time.

The Mossad had also helped identify the connection between the local terror cell in Greece and Iran’s broader global terror operations.

According to the intelligence agency, along with our intelligence partners, we will act in our role without rest to thwart Iran’s intentions to cause harm throughout the world.

In the Greece instance, the terrorists planned to strike a target of high symbolic value, a Jewish synagogue, which also functions as a restaurant, located in the center of Athens, Greek media reported.

In 2022, Greek media noted that Pakistani nationals were involved in an attempted attack on an Israeli in Istanbul, Turkey.

It was unclear if Greek media were referring to the September 2022 joint Turkey-Mossad operation which saved the lives of a large number of Israeli tourists.

In mid-2022, the Mossad kidnapped another senior IRGC official who revealed a variety of Iranian plots in the midst of a series of operations in which a number of other IRCG operatives and nuclear scientists were assassinated, with Iran accusing Israel.