World to face oil surplus in 2025

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if OPEC Plus cuts remain in place, as rising production from the United States and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand.

The prospect of a more than one million barrels per day (bpd) excess supply - equal to over 1% of world output - is a headwind for OPEC Plus, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia - in its plan to start raising output

Oil demand growth has been weaker than expected this year in large part because of China. After driving rises in oil consumption for years, economic challenges and a shift towards electric vehicles are tempering oil growth prospects in the world's second largest consumer.

"China's marked slowdown has been the main drag on demand," the IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

"Rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is also increasingly displacing oil in transport and power generation, adding downward pressure to otherwise weak demand drivers," the report added.

The Paris-based agency left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little changed at 990,000 bpd. At the same time, it expects non-OPEC Plus nations to boost supply by 1.5 million bpd, driven by the United States, Canada, Guyana and Argentina - more than the rate of demand growth.

Next year's surplus, as forecast by the IEA, could make it harder for OPEC Plus to bring back production. Earlier this month, OPEC plus again postponed a plan to start easing output cuts amid falling prices.

"Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC Plus cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than one million bpd next year," the IEA said.

Oil prices traded slightly weaker after the report was released, with Brent crude trading below US$73 a barrel.

 

 

 

 

 

PSX benchmark index closes at record high

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) maintained its bullish momentum throughout the week ended on November 15, 2024, with the benchmark index closing at a record high 94,763 points, marking a 1.6%WoW increase, achieving its highest-ever closing.

The bullish momentum continues on the back of accelerated pace of monetary easing by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and IMF’s visit with a focus on structural reforms.

During the visit, the IMF mission held discussions with local authorities, focusing on the external financing gap and the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) revenue collections. FBR officials assured the IMF that the revenue target would remain unchanged, attributing the shortfall in revenue collection during the first four months of FY25 to inaccurate economic assumptions, particularly regarding GDP growth, imports, and inflation.

Both the sides discussed short-term as well as long-term measures to address the potential revenue shortfall, including raising taxes on sugary drinks and the import of machinery and raw materials.

In the latest T-Bills auctions, the SBP raised PKR776 billion, with bulk of the participation confined to 3-month tenor. The yield on the 3-month bill decreased by 20bps, while the yield on the 12-month bill increased by 10bps.

Auto sector sales for October 2024 was reported at 15,192 units, up 31%YoY.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$84 million WoW, ending the week at US$11.2 billion as of November 08, 2024.

Average daily traded volume rose by 19.6%WoW to 878.5 million shares, from 734.6 million shares traded a week ago.

PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Gop awaits IMF stance on mini-budget, 2) Solarization plunging power demand upsets IMF, 3) APM Terminals commits to invest in Pakistan, 4) Finance Minister invites Turkish firms for JVs and 5) Russia expresses interest in working with Pakistan on North-South Trade Corridor (NSTC).

Transport, Woollen, Pharmaceuticals, Vanaspati & Allied industries and Glass & Ceramics were amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute, Mutual Funds, Automobile Assembler, Fertilizer & Engineering were the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell of US$11.0 million, while Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$13.9 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: Searl, EFUG, BNWN, TRG, and ABOT, while laggards included: FCEPL, THALL, MLCF, MUGHAL, and KOSM.

Continuation of monetary easing and improving macroeconomic environment would make investment in equities more appealing, currently trading at P/E of 4.2x and DY of 10.8%.

Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive. We recommend sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms.

However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals. Top picks of AKD Securities include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

China lauds progress in Iran-Saudi ties

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has expressed strong support for the constructive interactions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, emphasizing their role in fostering enduring good neighborly relations.

During a press briefing, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian noted that Saudi-Iran relations have been on a positive trajectory and China appreciates this progress. 

Lin Jian stated that Saudi Arabia and Iran have been engaging in positive interactions at various levels, further solidifying their reconciliation and playing a crucial role in fostering regional peace and stability. 

China remains committed to supporting both nations as they advance together, enhancing mutual trust, and achieving enduring good-neighborly relations and friendship, the spokesman said. 

The remarks come after several high-ranking visits between Iran and Saudi Arabia took place in the past month. 

Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic ties in March of 2023 under a China-brokered deal. The two West Asian countries have agreed to move towards establishing a security cooperation pact.

 

US hegemony being challenged by Yemen

Yemen’s Ansarullah movement has seriously challenged the US hegemony in West Asia, particularly in light of Washington’s unwavering support for the Israeli regime’s warmongering and military adventurism in the region.

Nearly two weeks after Israel launched its US-backed genocidal war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, the Yemeni army began firing missiles and drones at Israel in support of Palestinians in the besieged enclave. 

Yemen’s armed forces have also been targeting Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November last year.

The Yemeni army later broadened the scope of its attacks targeting American and British warships. These attacks have been in response to airstrikes carried out by these countries against Yemen with the aim of compelling it to cease anti-Israel operations. 

On Tuesday, the Yemeni army struck a significant blow to the US Navy through the execution of two “specific military operations” off the country’s coast.

“The first operation targeted the American aircraft carrier (Abraham) located in the Arabian Sea with a number of cruise missiles and drones,” the spokesman for the Yemeni Armed Forces said. 

Yahya Sarea added, “The other operation targeted two American destroyers in the Red Sea with a number of ballistic missiles and drones.” 

He noted that the operation had “successfully achieved its objectives”.

The US Defense Department admitted that US warships were targeted but did not acknowledge the attack against the Abraham Lincoln vessel.

Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder told reporters following the attacks that two US-guided missile destroyers – the USS Stockdale and USS Spruance – were hit by at least eight one-way attack drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and three anti-ship cruise missiles.

He claimed that the United States military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) forces “successfully repelled” the Yemeni army’s attacks during a transit of the Bab al-Mandeb strait”, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

Since January this year, the US and the UK have conducted multiple airstrikes in Yemen, claiming to target Ansarullah’s positions, with the most recent operations taking place over the weekend.

The US has so far failed to force the Yemeni army to stop its attacks against Israel and the regime’s ships. 

The Ansarullah movement has stressed that it will halt the strikes only if Israel ends its war of genocide on Gaza, which has so far claimed the lives of more than 43,700 Palestinians. 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has said that US strikes against Yemen aim to “further degrade” Ansarullah’s military capability to “protect and defend US forces and personnel in one of the world's most critical waterways”.

For now, the targeting of US warships, including the Abraham Lincoln vessel, clearly indicates that American strikes against Yemen have backfired. 

The Yemeni army has also shot down nearly a dozen US drones over the country’s airspace in the wake of the Gaza war. 

The Yemeni army has significantly upgraded its capabilities, enabling it to effectively target sophisticated US naval vessels and aircraft.

 

Trump Victory: Impact on Iran-Russia relations

Iranian political experts have quickly projected that a Trump victory in the presidential elections could lead to renewed US-Russia relations due to Trump and Putin's reportedly friendly ties. Some in Iran worry that this shift might undermine the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia, which has been strengthened over the past three years.

However, a closer look at Russian experts' views presents a more balanced and realistic perspective. These analysts believe that the US-Russia relationship is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels, given the profound trust issues that have persisted since the Ukraine crisis.

Russian-Iranian partnership, which has gained unprecedented momentum, is unlikely to be sacrificed for potential rapprochement with the United States.

Examining the opinions of notable Russian experts can shed light on Moscow's likely short-term approach to US relations, especially regarding the Ukraine conflict.

In initial responses, some speculate that Trump's return might lead Russia to slightly slow its Eurasian integration efforts, potentially making space for renewed discussions with the US, especially on the Ukraine crisis.

Yet, Alexander Dugin, a prominent proponent of Eurasianism in Russia, expresses a different view. He argues that while Trump’s administration may deprioritize the Ukraine crisis, it will likely focus on domestic US issues and its trade war with China.

Dugin, who frames Russia's actions in Ukraine as part of a destiny-driven mission to “de-Nazify Kyiv,” is adamant that this campaign should continue westward in Ukraine. In his view, even if Trump were to ask Putin to halt military operations in Ukraine, such a request would be improbable to affect Russia's plans.

Similarly, Andrey Bezrukov, an international relations expert and professor at Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs University, believes that resolving the Ukraine issue depends more on Russia's military progress than the US elections.

He emphasizes Trump’s unpredictability, citing Iran's experience with US policy shifts, and warns of the risks if future Democratic administrations disregard any agreements.

Bezrukov adds that Trump's administration would likely focus primarily on countering China's global influence, rather than confronting Russia directly in Ukraine.

However, this does not necessarily mean the end of US support for Ukraine; the US might shift more of this responsibility to Europe, despite Trump's potential disagreements with European leaders.

Andrey Sushentsov, director of the Valdai Discussion Club’s programs and an expert on international relations, says US institutions constrained Trump’s policy intentions on Ukraine during his presidency from 2017-2021.

During his campaign, Trump asserted he could resolve the Ukraine crisis swiftly, but Sushentsov views such claims skeptically.

He argues that Ukraine is a tool for the US to manage Russia’s influence, rally European allies, and compel them to bear the economic and social costs of the crisis unless the US decides that Ukraine is no longer an effective lever.

In reviewing these insights from prominent Russian analysts and commentaries in Russian media, it is apparent that most Russian experts are skeptical about any rapid impact of a Trump-Putin rapport on resolving the Ukraine conflict.

Given the unprecedented level of Russian-Iranian relations over the past three years, it is unlikely that this alliance would be sacrificed for hypothetical negotiations between a Republican-led US and Russia.

 

Trump’s pick for key positions

President-elect Donald Trump has started filling key posts in his second administration, putting an emphasis so far on aides and allies who were his strongest backers during the 2024 campaign.

Here’s a look at some of the persons he has selected so far:

Susie Wiles, chief of staff

Wiles, 67, was a senior adviser to Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and its de facto manager.

Wiles has a background in Florida politics. She helped Ron DeSantis win his first race for Florida governor. Six years later, she was key to Trump’s defeat of him in the 2024 Republican primary.

Wiles’ hire was Trump’s first major decision as president-elect and one that could be a defining test of his incoming administration considering her close relationship with the president-elect. Wiles is said to have earned Trump’s trust in part by guiding what was the most disciplined of Trump’s three presidential campaigns.

Wiles was able to help keep Trump on track as few others have, not by criticizing his impulses, but by winning his respect by demonstrating his success after taking her advice.

Mike Waltz, national security adviser

Trump asked Waltz, a retired Army National Guard officer and war veteran, to be his national security adviser, a person familiar with the matter.

The move would put Waltz at the forefront of a litany of national security crises, ranging from the ongoing effort to provide weapons to Ukraine and escalating worries about the growing alliance between Russia and North Korea to the persistent attacks in the Middle East by Iran proxies and the push for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah.

Waltz is a three-term GOP congressman from east-central Florida. He served multiple tours in Afghanistan and also worked in the Pentagon as a policy adviser when Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates were defense chiefs.

He is considered hawkish on China, and called for a US boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing due to its involvement in the origin of COVID-19 and its ongoing mistreatment of the minority Muslim Uighur population.

Tom Homan, ‘border czar’

Homan, 62, has been tasked with Trump’s top priority of carrying out the largest deportation operation in the nation’s history.

Homan, who served under Trump in his first administration leading US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, was widely expected to be offered a position related to the border, an issue Trump made central to his campaign.

Though Homan has insisted such a massive undertaking would be humane, he has long been a loyal supporter of Trump’s policy proposals, suggesting at a July conference in Washington that he would be willing to “run the biggest deportation operation this country’s ever seen.”

Democrats have criticized Homan for his defending Trump’s “zero tolerance” policy on border crossings during his first administration, which led to the separation of thousands of parents and children seeking asylum at the border.

Elise Stefanik, UN ambassador

Stefanik is a representative from New York and one of Trump’s staunchest defenders going back to his first impeachment.

Elected to the House in 2014, Stefanik was selected by her GOP House colleagues as House Republican Conference chair in 2021, when former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney was removed from the post after publicly criticizing Trump for falsely claiming he won the 2020 election. Stefanik, 40, has served in that role ever since as the third-ranking member of House leadership.

Stefanik’s questioning of university presidents over antisemitism on their campuses helped lead to two of those presidents resigning, further raising her national profile.

If confirmed, she would represent American interests at the UN as Trump vows to end the war waged by Russia against Ukraine begun in 2022. He has also called for peace as Israel continues its offensive against Hamas in Gaza and its invasion of Lebanon to target Hezbollah.

Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff for policy

Miller, an immigration hardliner, was a vocal spokesperson during the presidential campaign for Trump’s priority of mass deportations. The 39-year-old was a senior adviser during Trump’s first administration.

Miller has been a central figure in some of Trump’s policy decisions, notably his move to separate thousands of immigrant families.

Trump argued throughout the campaign that the nation’s economic, national security and social priorities could be met by deporting people who are in the United States illegally. Since Trump left office in 2021, Miller has served as the president of America First Legal, an organization made up of former Trump advisers aimed at challenging the Biden administration, media companies, universities and others over issues such as free speech and national security.

 

PSX creates new highs every week

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum throughout the week ended November 08, 2024 with the benchmark index closing at 93,291 points, up by 2.7%WoW, achieving it’s highest ever closing.

The momentum was fuelled by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) accelerating the pace of monetary easing with 250bps cut resulting in policy rate to end at 15% as inflation continues to fall towards the central bank medium term target range, providing impetus to cyclical sectors.

MSCI added eight Pakistani scrips while removing one from its MSCI FM Small Cap Index as part of its November review.

Furthermore, an IMF mission is scheduled to arrive Pakistan for the first review of the US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was originally due in March 2025 but will take place four months ahead of schedule.

Cement offtakes for October 2024 was reported at 4.36 million tons, up 9%YoY. 

Workers’ remittance remained robust and reported at US$3.0 billion for October 2024, taking 4MFY25 remittances to US$11.8 billion (up 35%YoY).

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$18 million WoW to US$11.2 billion as of November 01, 2024.

Average daily trading volume rose to 896.1 million shares from 682.8 million shares traded a week ago, up 31.2%WoW.

On the currency front, PKIR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Qatar to invest US$3 billion in diverse sectors 2) exports up 13.45%YoY to U$10.88 billion during first four months of the current financial year, 3) Eurobond sale planned for the next financial year, 4) Tax exemptions in FY24 amounted to PKR3.8 trillion, and 5) GoP to raise PKR8.7 trillion debt to pay maturing loans.

Refinery, Exchange traded fund, Jute, Mutual Funds and Paper & Board were amongst the top performers, Synthetic & Rayon, Tobacco, Real Estate Investment Trust, Banks & Leather & Tanneries.

Major net selling was recorded by Individuals with a net sell of US$13.6 million. Mutual Funds emerged major buyers with net a net buy of US$22.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PIBTL, HCAR, BOP, PKGS. and FCEPL, while top laggards included: SCBPL, IBFL, FABL, SRVI, and HBL.

Continuation of monetary easing due to disinflationary environment and improving macroeconomic environment is likely to make investment in equities more appealing.

Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive.

AKD Securities recommend sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, MCB, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.