Sunday, 29 June 2025

Iran could resume Uranium enrichment within months after US strikes

Iran could restart uranium enrichment "in a matter of months" following recent US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned, signaling that the damage inflicted by American forces was not sufficient to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear capabilities, reports the Saudi Gazette.

In an interview released Saturday by CBS News, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said that despite the scale of the attacks, Iran retains the technological and industrial capacity to resume its nuclear program.

“They can have, in a matter of months, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium or less than that,” Grossi said.

“The damage is severe, but not total.”

On June 22, the United States launched a coordinated assault on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, dropping six bunker-buster bombs on the Fordo nuclear facility and unleashing dozens of cruise missiles on key sites in Natanz and Isfahan.

The operation followed rising tensions between Iran and Israel and was aimed at halting what Washington described as Iran’s expanding nuclear threat.

In the wake of the strikes, US officials have pushed back on reports suggesting the attacks merely delayed Iran’s progress by several months, rather than eliminating it entirely.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi admitted the bombings caused “excessive and serious” damage but insisted that Iran retains core capabilities.

Grossi echoed that concern, saying Iran’s nuclear knowledge and infrastructure cannot be erased.

“You cannot disinvent this,” he noted. “Iran is a very sophisticated country in terms of nuclear technology.”

He also raised alarm over unexplained traces of uranium found at undeclared Iranian sites, saying the IAEA still lacks credible explanations about their origin.

On the issue of Iran’s 408.6-kilogram stockpile of Uranium enriched to 60%, enough to build more than nine nuclear bombs if further enriched, Grossi said, “Some could have been destroyed as part of the attack, but some could have been moved.”

Grossi emphasized the urgency of restoring access for IAEA inspectors, “There has to be at some point a clarification.”

Araghchi announced Saturday that Grossi would be barred from entering Iran, a move swiftly condemned by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called it “a dangerous step toward further nuclear opacity.”

The latest developments come on the heels of a 12-day war between Israel and Iran, which erupted on June 13 after Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian military, nuclear, and civilian sites. Iran’s Health Ministry reported 606 killed and over 5,300 injured.

In response, Tehran launched drone and missile barrages that killed at least 29 people in Israel and wounded more than 3,400, according to figures from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

US presidents have history of attacking countries without Congress approval

According to The Hill, Democrats bashing President Trump for striking Iran without congressional consent are bumping into an inconvenient history, Democratic presidents have done the same thing for decades.

From Bill Clinton, to Barack Obama, to Joe Biden, every Democratic president of the modern era has employed US military forces to attack targets overseas, including strikes in Bosnia, Syria, Libya and Yemen. While they sought approval from Capitol Hill in some of those cases, Congress never provided it.

That history has muddled the Democrats’ current argument that Trump, in striking three Iranian nuclear facilities last weekend, violated the Constitution by acting on his own, without the formal approval of Congress.

The dynamic has not been overlooked by Republican leaders, who have hailed the strikes on Iran as a national security necessity and defended Trump’s powers to launch them unilaterally.

Those voices are pointing specifically to the actions of Clinton, Obama and Biden to bolster their arguments.

“Since World War II we have had more than 125 military operations from Korea and Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan. They have occurred without a Declaration of War by Congress,” House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters after the strikes. “Presidents of both parties have exercised that authority frequently.”

Johnson ticked off a few examples under the most recent Democratic administrations. Biden, he noted, ordered strikes against Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Obama sustained a months-long bombing campaign in Libya. And Clinton had bombed parts of the former Yugoslavia during the Bosnian war of the mid-1990s. 

“Every one of those actions were taken unilaterally and without prior authorization from Congress,” Johnson said. 

That background is forcing Democrats to reckon with that past just as many of them are now demanding that Trump cease all military operations in Iran without explicit congressional approval. Some of them are quick to acknowledge the incongruity, voicing something like regret that Congress didn’t stand more firm in the face of those unilateral Democratic missions.

“Just because it was wrong then doesn’t mean it’s not wrong now,” said Rep. Ted Lieu, a former Air Force attorney who’s now the vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. “The Constitution is the Constitution. And it says only Congress has the power to declare war. And it’s been a bipartisan problem, with Congress ceding way too much power to the executive branch.”

Rep. Pete Aguilar, the chairman of the Democratic Caucus, seemed to agree. He lamented that the politics of Washington have sometimes curtailed Congress’s appetite for asserting its war powers as a check on the president, especially when Congress and the White House are controlled by opposing parties. 

“That part is unfortunate. Maybe we’ve missed a few opportunities,” Aguilar said. 

“But that doesn’t mean that we turn a blind eye right now,” he quickly added. “It doesn’t mean that we just let Donald Trump walk all over us. It means that we stand up for our authority and speak up on behalf of our constituents at every opportunity.”

The Constitution makes clear that Congress and the White House both play crucial roles in conducting military operations. Article I lends Congress the power to declare war, and Article II stipulates that the president is “Commander and Chief” of the Armed Forces, responsible for executing wars that Congress sanctions. 

Yet that conceptual balance has tilted heavily toward the executive branch over most of the last century. The last time Congress formally declared war was in 1941, after Pearl Harbor. And since then, the president has assumed virtually all power, not only to steer the Armed Forces, but also to launch them into battle.

In 1973, in the wake of Vietnam, Congress sought to reassert its authority by passing the War Powers Act. (President Nixon vetoed the bill, but Congress overrode him).

The law requires presidents to “consult with Congress before introducing United States Armed Forces into hostilities,” but it does not demand the formal authorization of the legislative branch.

As tensions in the Middle East exploded earlier in the month, lawmakers in both parties sought to limit US involvement with war powers resolutions requiring Trump to get explicit congressional consent before using military force in Iran.

One was sponsored by three leading Democrats: Reps. Gregory Meeks, Jim Himes and Adam Smith. Another was bipartisan, championed by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).

Supporters of the resolutions are quick to acknowledge that the president has the power to act unilaterally in extraordinary circumstances, like if the nation is attacked. But there’s no evidence, they say, to indicate that Iran posed an immediate threat to Americans ahead of Trump’s strikes. 

“Any president has self-defense authority under Article II of the Constitution. But to meet that threshold, you have to show that there was an imminent risk of attack against Americans or US facilities. That’s the standard,” said Rep.

Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a former Army Ranger who served in both Iraq and Afghanistan. “As a member of the Armed Services Committee and the House Intelligence Committee, I have not seen any evidence leading up to the attack that there was an imminent risk to Americans or to US facilities to meet that threshold.”

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) delivered a similar assessment. “If our country is attacked, all and any powers go to the president to act,” she said. “That didn’t exist here, so the president should have come to Congress.”

Complicating their argument are the actions of Democratic presidents who also activated the Armed Services without congressional consent.

In 1998, for instance, in response to the terrorist bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, Clinton ordered the launch of cruise missiles targeting al Qaeda strongholds in Sudan and Afghanistan. He also joined NATO forces in bombing Serbian targets in the former Yugoslavia. 

Obama infuriated liberals in Congress in launching strikes against numerous countries during his eight-year reign, including an extensive campaign in Libya in 2011, which helped in the toppling of President Muammar Gaddafi, as well as subsequent incursions in Syria, Yemen and Somalia. 

Obama had asked Congress for specific authorization in some cases, but lawmakers on Capitol Hill couldn’t agree on a resolution to provide it. Instead, those operations leaned heavily on a 2001 resolution — known as an authorization of military force, or AUMF — passed by Congress to sanction the Afghanistan War after the attacks of 9/11. 

In the same vein, Biden used US forces to target Syria, Yemen and Iraq. 

Lieu, for one, emphasized that he was opposed to Obama’s use of force without Congress giving the OK. 

“I publicly stated at the time that Obama needed congressional authorization to strike Syria. I believe Trump needs congressional authorization to strike Iran,” he said.

“My view of the Constitution does not change based on what party the president happens to belong to.” 

Other Democrats sought to keep the debate focused more squarely on current events.

“We can write books and fill your column inches with regrets under this dome. We’ll save that for other days,” Aguilar said. “But what is in front of us today, are we going to stand up for our constitutional authority?”

A week after the strikes, the debate over war powers may already be academic. 

On Tuesday, Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel that, if it holds, may make the constitutional disagreement moot. Massie has said he won’t force a vote on his war powers measure if the ceasefire continues.

Johnson has refused to consider such a resolution in any event, calling the War Powers Act unconstitutional. And Trump officials are expected to meet with Iranian officials later this week, when the US will seek a commitment from Tehran to abandon any plans to produce nuclear weapons.

Still, there are plenty of questions swirling about the ultimate success of the strikes in dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities. And Trump, asked whether he would attack again if necessary, didn’t hesitate. 

“Without question,” he said. “Absolutely.”

 

 

Saturday, 28 June 2025

Israel planned a false flag operation in US

There is a loud discussion going on that Israel had planned a destructive explosion on US soil intended to be attributed to Iran. The false flag operation sought to fabricate evidence, implicate Iran, and provide a pretext for a full-scale US war against the country. The plan was aimed at manipulating American public opinion and legitimizing military aggression. Iran reportedly sent warnings to American officials, leading to the plan’s disruption.

Although the US played a highly active role in Israel’s 12-day war against Iran, the operation was designed to fully draw Washington into the conflict by replicating the shock and political consequences of the September 11 attacks.

In an analysis, Sobh-e-No highlighted Israel’s history of breaching agreements and lack of commitment to ceasefires and the need for Iran to remain fully ready for violation of the ceasefire that went into effect on June 25. It wrote, “Despite the official declaration of a ceasefire between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Zionist regime, historical evidence shows that the Israeli regime often does not commit to agreements. This ceasefire agreement has seemingly created hope for a temporary halt to attacks. The Islamic Republic of Iran must continue to maintain its vigilance at the highest level. Complete defensive and operational readiness, along with strengthening defense and intelligence systems, is necessary to deal with any betrayal or re-attack by the Zionist regime. At the same time, the country's diplomatic apparatus must reflect the regime's repeated violations of international rules and inform the global public opinion of the unreliable nature of Israel. In the current circumstances, trusting the Zionist regime's commitment to a ceasefire without deterrent measures and full readiness would be nothing more than naivety. This regime has repeatedly shown that it does not adhere to any of international rules and regulations. Therefore, staying prepared and alert is the only way to protect the country's national security”.

In a note, Donya-e-Eqtesad addressed Iran's intelligent silence towards the West and wrote, “The ceasefire that was recently agreed between Iran and Israel with Washington's mediation was not out of moral concern or for peace, but to prevent the spread of tension to energy markets and America's global competition with China. America's military involvement in the recent war was limited and calculated. Trump has adopted an ambivalent position. In response to the recent conflict, he said, "Both Iran and Israel violated the agreement, and I am not happy with either of them." This artificial neutrality is precisely a reflection of the same cost-oriented view of the region. Therefore, now that neither Washington has an incentive to continue sanctions nor Tel Aviv - consciously or unintentionally - has maintained the image of a threat, Iran should not rush to prove that it is a danger. The best response at this moment is an intelligent silence. In politics, you don't always have to speak for yourself. Sometimes it is enough to wait for the other party to speak your language without knowing it, and make others doubt”.

Theorists of “Strategic Solitude” believe that Iran can never be part of the orbit of the great coalitions of world powers, not because of political mistakes, but because of the country’s particular characteristics, such as the Persian language, the Shiite religion, and its specific geographical location. From their view, the great powers of the region do not consider Iran as part of their strategic team. As a result, Iran is forced to rely on itself and follow the path of authority from within, by strengthening internal power and increasing popular legitimacy. Contrary to the common perception of strategic solitude, Iranian analysts see it as an opportunity for independent action in the region. They believe that Iran’s historical experience has been filled with the betrayal of great powers, from Russia and Britain to today’s America and China. According to this view, Iran can never rely on others, because others always make and break agreements in line with their preferences. Iran's strategic solitude is the result of its political system, prevailing discourse, and the Islamic Republic’s deliberate orientation in foreign policy. This perspective views the phenomenon not as inherent, but as a political and discursive construct.

 

Trump biggest warmonger, not peacekeeper

It’s been said that Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel’s war with Iran underscores his failures as a peacemaker. This is a preposterous statement because the idea of Trump being “a peacemaker and unifier” has always been nothing short of preposterous.

Yes, long before his ascendance to the White House, Trump had managed to paint him as a peacemaker, promising to end America’s “endless wars.” But most people in the United States of Amnesia seem to have forgotten that during his first four-year tenure in the White House Trump embarked on a dangerous path with a series of reckless foreign policy decisions that threatened peace and made the world a far more dangerous place.

Trump walked away from an Iran deal and withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty while US air wars became broader and “increasingly indiscriminate.”

Iraq, Somalia, and Syria were among the countries that Trump loosened the rules of engagement for US forces. Trump also ordered the killing of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and threatened “fire and fury” against North Korea.

In addition, Trump increased tensions between Israelis and Palestinians by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the US embassy there from Tel Aviv.

The president of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas said at the time that Trump’s decision undermined all peace efforts and called his actions “a crime,” while the political leader of the Hamas movement, Ismail Haniya, who was assassinated by the Israeli Mossad in Tehran on July 31, 2024, called for a new “intifada.”

Shortly upon assuming the Office of the President of the United States for the second time, Trump embarked on a jingoistic journey by threatening to take over Greenland (an idea he had floated back in 2019), make Canada the 51st state, reclaim the Panama Canal, and attack Mexico. And just as he had done during his first term in office, he withdrew the US from the landmark Paris climate agreement, even though the climate crisis is an existential one and is expected to increase the risk of armed conflict.

PSX benchmark index up 3.6%WoW despite unrest in Middle East

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) staged a strong rebound during the week following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. The benchmark index gained 4,356 points or 3.6%WoW to close at record 124,379 points on Friday, June 27, 2025.

While the week began on a cautious note due to renewed concerns over regional instability following the US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, the ceasefire restored investors’ confidence and triggered a sharp recovery from the second trading day onward.

Market participation dropped despite the rally, with average daily traded volume falling to 736 million shares from 822 million shares a week ago, down 10%WoW.

The foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) declined sharply by US$2.7 billion to US$9.1 billion as of June 20, 2025, the second-largest weekly fall, mainly due to scheduled external debt repayments.

However, SBP reiterated its June end reserve target of US$14 billion, with US$3.6 billion inflows expected to be reflected in the coming week. Domestic currency remained largely stable at PKR283.7/US$.

The FY26 Federal Budget was approved on Thursday, with minor adjustments to tax laws and rates.

On the inflation front, headline CPI for FY26 is projected to moderate further to 4.4%YoY as compared to 4.5% for FY25, due to a moderate increase in food and housing indices.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan and United States eyeing preferential trade deal in talks, 2) Consumer confidence at highest since 2022, up 25%YoY in 4QCY25, 3) Power generation up 1%YoY in May 2025 on lower tariffs, and 4) RDA inflows were up 14%MoM in May 2025, to US$10.38 billion.

Woollen, Glass & ceramics, and Vanaspati & allied sectors were amongst the top performers, while Modaraba, ETFs, and Sugar & allied industries reported declines.

Major selling was recorded by Foreigners and Individuals with a net sell of US$15.8 million. Mutual funds and Insurance absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$16.1 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: BNWM, GHGL, NATF, HUMNL, and PABC, while laggards included: PSEL, PKGP, PGLC, EPCL, and ISL.

According to AKD Securities, the market is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with forward inflation for FY26 projected at 4.4%YoY, indicating substantial room for monetary easing, which would serve as a catalyst for equities.

The KSE-100 index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.

Friday, 27 June 2025

Trump’s war mania

According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump sharply criticized Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamanei, on Friday, dropped plans to lift sanctions on Iran and said he would consider bombing Iran again if Tehran is enriching uranium to worrisome levels.

Trump reacted sternly to Khamanei's first remarks after a 12-day conflict with Israel that ended when the United States launched bombing raids last weekend against Iranian nuclear sites.

Khamanei said Iran "slapped America in the face" by launching an attack against a major US base in Qatar following the US bombing raids. Khamanei also said Iran would never surrender.

Trump said he had spared Khamanei's life. US officials told Reuters on June 15 that Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill the supreme leader.

"His Country was decimated, his three evil Nuclear Sites were OBLITERATED, and I knew EXACTLY where he was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the US Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life," Trump said in a social media post.

"I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH," he said.

Iran said a potential nuclear deal was conditional on the US ending its "disrespectful tone" toward the Supreme Leader.

"If President Trump is genuine about wanting a deal, he should put aside the disrespectful and unacceptable tone towards Iran's Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, and stop hurting his millions of heartfelt followers," Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on X in the early hours of Saturday.

Trump also said that in recent days he had been working on the possible removal of sanctions on Iran to give it a chance for a speedy recovery. He said he had now abandoned that effort.

"I get hit with a statement of anger, hatred, and disgust, and immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more," he said.

Trump said at a White House news conference that he did not rule out attacking Iran again, when asked about the possibility of new bombing of Iranian nuclear sites if deemed necessary at some point.

 

"Sure, without question, absolutely," he said.

Trump said he would like inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency - the UN nuclear watchdog - or another respected source to be able to inspect Iran's nuclear sites after they were bombed last weekend.

Trump has rejected any suggestion that damage to the sites was not as profound as he has said.

The IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, said on Wednesday that ensuring the resumption of IAEA inspections was his top priority as none had taken place since Israel began bombing on June 13.

However, Iran's parliament approved moves on Wednesday to suspend such inspections. Araqchi indicated on Friday that Tehran may reject any request by the head of the agency for visits to Iranian nuclear sites.

 

India refuses to sign joint statement at China

According to Saudi Gazette, India refused to sign a joint statement at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China as it did not reflect the country's concerns on terrorism, India's foreign ministry has said.

Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on Thursday that India's desire for its concerns to be reflected was "not acceptable to one particular country".

While he did not share more details, Indian media reported that Delhi refused to sign the statement after it omitted the Pahalgam attack, a deadly militant attack that killed 26 tourists in Indian administered Kashmir.

India has blamed its neighbour, Pakistan for sheltering a militant group it blames for the attack. Pakistan has rejected the allegations.

China, Russia and four Central Asian countries formed the SCO in 2001 as a countermeasure to limit the influence of the West in the region. India and Pakistan joined in 2017.

The latest signing ceremony took place during the SCO defence ministers' meeting in China, held ahead of the leaders' annual summit this autumn.

According to media reports, India perceived the joint statement as being "pro Pakistan" after it omitted the Pahalgam attack but mentioned militant activities in Baluchistan.

Pakistan has accused India of backing the Baluchistan freedom movement, which India denies.

After the meeting, India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh urged the SCO to hold the perpetrators of cross-border terrorism accountable, though he didn't explicitly mention Pakistan.

"Some countries use cross-border terrorism as an instrument of policy and provide shelter to terrorists. There should be no place for such double standards. SCO should not hesitate to criticize such nations," he said in a statement.

The Pahalgam attack in April brought the two nuclear-armed countries to the brink of another war.

In May, India launched a series of airstrikes, targeting sites it called "terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan administered Kashmir".

Pakistan denied the claim that these were terror camps and also responded by firing missiles and deploying drones into Indian territory.

The hostilities between the two countries continued until May 10 when President Donald Trump announced that India and Pakistan had agreed to a "full and immediate ceasefire", brokered by the United States.

India has consistently denied any intervention by the United States.